Grupo Supervielle S.A. Q3 FY2024 Earnings Call

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Grupo Supervielle Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. I am Ana Bartesaghi, Treasurer and IRO. Today's conference call is being recorded. As a reminder, all participants will be in listen-only mode. Speaking today, we have Patricio Supervielle, our Chairman and CEO; Gustavo Manriquez, Banco Supervielle's recently appointed CEO; and Mariano Biglia, our Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us for Q&A is Diego Pizzulli, CEO of Invertironline. All will be available during the Q&A session. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that today's call may include forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and beliefs and are subject to risks and uncertainties. For more details, refer to the forward-looking statements section in our earnings release and recent SEC filings. Patricio, please go ahead.

Thank you, Ana. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Earlier this year, we began a heightened effort to drive targeted credit expansion. Today, we are pleased to report that sustained loan growth momentum continued in the third quarter and into the fourth quarter to date. Our loan book expanded 15% sequentially and 60% year-to-date in real terms, gaining 60 basis points in market share since the beginning of the year. Furthermore, higher margin retail loans, including personal and auto, gained share of our total portfolio. Total deposits were up in the high teens, mainly driven by US deposits, which stand at a record high following the tax amnesty. Year-to-date, deposits gained 60 basis points in market share. Fee income also showed strong growth sequentially with solid contributions across our banking, asset management, and online brokerage platforms. Asset quality remains strong, with the non-performing loans ratio steady at a historic low. At the same time, net interest margin normalized, reflecting lower inflation and the evolving interest rate environment. Now moving to an update of our business highlights. First, mobile transactions represented 56% of total transactions, cementing it as our leading channel and reflecting strong customer adoption. On the retail side, our loan book delivered exceptional growth, expanding 44% quarter-over-quarter. Car loans stood out, doubling in volume and reinforcing our position as the Number #2 lender in this segment. Mortgages and personal loans also grew 42% and 41%, respectively. These achievements highlight our commitment to delivering tailored financial solutions that meet the evolving needs of our customers, supported by a seamless digital experience. Second, our corporate loan book remained stable in real terms quarter-over-quarter and up 54% to date. Encouragingly, we observed a significant uptick in demand for US dollar-denominated loans in October, underscoring the momentum in key export-oriented sectors, particularly oil and gas, where we're offering attractive tailored financial solutions. Third, Invertironline continues to strengthen its position as the leading online brokerage platform in the country, contributing 21% of our total fee income this quarter. We are pleased to report that active clients reached a record 580,000, representing a 14% sequential increase, with transaction volumes up 21% during the same period. This good performance reflects the strong appeal of our integrated digital services. Moreover, assets under custody reached a record of $1.2 billion. Lastly, we continue to expand our insurance operation, achieving a 36% quarterly growth in car insurance. A key milestone this quarter was the launch of our digital insurance solutions for corporate clients through our virtual hub, which enhances our ability to meet the evolving needs of businesses while streamlining accessibility and services. Looking ahead, while profitability bottomed out in the third quarter as anticipated on our prior earnings call, we are seeing a rebound in the fourth quarter and are on track to meet our full-year guidance of 15% return on equity. Longer-term, we see significant opportunities to further deepen market penetration. Credit remains underutilized in Argentina, represented just 6% of GDP. At the same time, our ongoing focus on digital innovation and operational efficiency equips us to serve our clients more effectively and drive shareholder value. Our strategic initiatives, combined with our strong capital base, position us well for Argentina's ongoing recovery. Before Mariano discusses the financial details of the quarter, I want to take a moment to formally introduce and welcome Gustavo Paco Manriquez, the new CEO of Banco Supervielle, and Diego Pizzulli, who has been leading Invertironline since July 2022 and will be available in the Q&A session. Banco Supervielle is the largest operation in the group. We are pleased to welcome Paco, who assumed the CEO position in the bank on October 1. As CEO, Paco brings over a decade of experience leading one of the leading private banks in Argentina as well as broad international experience. We have accomplished a lot over the past few years in positioning the bank to meet the evolving and changing customer banking needs. Paco will now steer the bank through its next growth phase. We are excited about the prospects ahead for the bank and look forward to working with Paco as we realize these opportunities. With that, let me turn the call over to Paco.

Thank you, Patricio, for the warm welcome, and good morning to all of you. It is a pleasure to be participating in my first earnings call at Supervielle. This is an exciting time for the banking sector in Argentina as the country continues its economic recovery. Here at Banco Supervielle, we are all positioning to be a significant participant in the recovery. I’m impressed with the high level of technology and human capital that we have here in the bank, which combined with its strong capitalization, places the bank well to maximize the potential. I look forward to leading the bank through its next growth phase. My near-term and long-term priorities will be focused basically on pursuing growth initiatives while improving profitability. I have found very attractive opportunities to further expand our business, leveraging our geographic footprint and position in key business segments. I expect to share a little bit more of my perspective when we present the fourth-quarter results, basically the next quarter results. Over the coming months, I look forward to meeting you, our Institutional Shareholders, and other members of the investment community, both here in Argentina and abroad. Now let me turn the call over to Mariano to review all our financial performances.

Thank you, Paco. As anticipated in our prior call, we reported a lower ROE this quarter of 5% in real terms as we transition our asset base from a large share of government securities to growing private sector loans, although still at historic low leverage levels. This was mainly driven by a 29% sequential drop in net financial income, reflecting the decline in inflation and the yield on government securities and loans, partially offset by a lower cost of funding amidst the lower interest rate environment. As we transition from government securities to private sector loans, margins are reduced in this first stage and are expected to increase as we complete the transition and also grow in higher-margin loans. Operating expenses increased 2% quarter-on-quarter, impacted by severance charges reported in the quarter. Note that including these one-time charges, operating expenses would have declined nearly 5% sequentially. By contrast, ROE benefited from a 25% increase in net fee income, driven by good performances across all businesses, particularly in brokerage and asset management fees, as we increased assets under management and active customers at Invertironline. A 22% contraction in loan loss provisions, reflecting healthy growth, also contributed to profitability. This was complemented by a 35% decline in other net losses attributable to lower turnover tax and provisions for strategic initiatives, together with a 31% drop in inflation adjustment, benefiting from lower inflation in the quarter. Turning to Slide 6. We continue to shift our asset base towards a larger mix of private sector loans, reaching 39% of total assets from 36% in the second quarter, as shown in the bar chart. By contrast, investment in government securities and Central Bank repos declined 17 percentage points sequentially to 23% of total assets. Loan growth was driven primarily by a 44% increase in retail loans, reflecting our ability to capture rising credit demand across Argentina's improving economic landscape. Car loans remain the standout performer within retail. Moving on to Slide 7. Total deposits grew 17% sequentially, supported by a 90% increase in US dollar-denominated deposits in original currency. Growth was largely driven by the recent tax amnesty program, which has driven significant inflows of funds into the financial system. As a result, US deposit share of total deposits increased by 12 percentage points to 28%. This positive trend continued into October, with US deposits up 12%. Peso deposits, in turn, remain stable. Lastly, the loan-to-deposit ratio stood at 58%. Turning to Slide 8. As anticipated, the decline in inflation has reduced the impact of inflation-linked instruments in our portfolio. Peso yields also came down, driven by a lower interest rate environment and the Central Bank's policy adjustment. This reflects a broader normalization of monetary policy, which has reduced the unusually high spreads seen in prior quarters. These headwinds were partially offset by a decline in our funding costs, in tandem with policy rate adjustments. As a result, net financial income declined 29% sequentially to ARS161 billion. Looking ahead, growth in higher NIM lending products, together with increased leverage, are expected to positively contribute to improved net financial income. Turning to Slide 9. CET1 ratio declined 210 basis points sequentially to slightly over 19% at quarter end. This reflects sequentially higher risk-weighted assets due to the continued acceleration of sector loan growth, along with higher deductions on deferred taxes. Capitalization levels provide ample flexibility to continue expanding our loan portfolio while maintaining a prudent approach to risk management. On Slide 10, we discuss Argentina's evolving macroeconomic landscape. A key highlight this quarter was the successful tax amnesty program, which brought in over $20 billion in deposits. Importantly, inflation has eased more rapidly than expected, with 2024 projections now revised to show improvement to an annual rate of 120%, down from 127% in June. The regulation initiatives and fiscal discipline, achieving a surplus of 0.5% as of October, are driving a gradual economic reoperation. Throughout the year, we have seen significant improvement across many of the key macro drivers. However, some challenges remain, the most important being growth in the Central Bank's net reserves, which remain negative. Additionally, maintaining public support is crucial as reforms continue to be rolled out and economic activity and employment recover. To further support this recovery, a key milestone will be the lifting of FX restrictions. In conclusion, we are encouraged by the improving macroeconomic indicators and the progress made towards a more sustainable, open, and competitive economic environment in Argentina. More specifically, the financial sector is in the early stages of recovery, with loan growth inflecting positively. With respect to Grupo Supervielle, we have a solid foundation in place and are well positioned to benefit as demand continues to recover. To wrap up, let's look ahead at our perspectives for the remainder of 2024 on Slide 11. Based on fourth-quarter performance to date, we maintain our ROE guidance of 15% for the full year. As inflation continues to ease, we now expect peso loans for 2024 to expand between 70% to 80% in real terms, up from prior expectations of 40%, with retail loans increasing share of total loans. The NPL ratio is expected to remain below 1% this year and to start converting in 2025 to levels aligned with higher credit demand, up from the current historical lows. In turn, net cost of risk is anticipated to remain at nine months' 24 levels for the full year. Note that following the anticipated NIM contraction experienced in Q3, we expect for the fourth quarter to stabilize at Q3 levels. In terms of fee income, we expect repricing of the bulk of bank fees to individuals to lag inflation and thus to grow below inflation levels. By contrast, brokerage and asset management fees are anticipated to grow significantly above inflation as monthly active users and assets under management increase. Lastly, as credit demand continues to recover, we now anticipate closing the year with a CET1 ratio between 16% to 18%, compared to our previous expectations of 17% to 20%. Looking ahead to 2025, we expect inflation levels to continue receding to around 30%, which together with growth in economic activity, employment, and salaries in real terms, will create additional opportunities for growth. In this environment, Supervielle remains committed to leveraging its diverse product portfolio, solid capital base, and customer-first approach to deliver long-term value. This ends our prepared remarks. We are ready to open the floor for questions. Ana, please go ahead.

Thank you, Mariano. At this time we will be conducting the question-and-answer session. The first questions come from Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America. Hello, good morning, Ernesto. Nice to see you.

Good morning. Thank you, Ana, and hi, good morning, Patricio, Gustavo, and Mariano. And good morning to all your team, and welcome, Gustavo. Thank you for the opportunity to ask the questions. My first question will be on your net interest income. Considering that all the Argentine banks are transitioning from lower investment securities, but at the same time to higher financial interest from a stronger loan book expansion, when do you expect in your case that NII will return to a year-over-year growth? And for this assumption, how should we consider the evolution of the loan-to-deposit ratio and your capital ratio?

Mariano?

Yes, hi, Ernesto, thank you for your question. As you said, we are positioning to change the mix of our assets by growing our loan portfolio. First, as interest rates decreased sharply during the first six months of the year, we anticipated demand and increased our loan portfolio by 60% year-to-date, continuing to expand throughout the rest of the year. In this transition, we also reduced our securities portfolio, where we don't have the extraordinary results that we saw mainly in the first quarter of the year. Thus, NIM has been decreasing, but we expect it to start recovering as we continue this transition. However, we will also review interest rates, which will continue to decline, but at a lower pace. We are also transitioning within our loan growth to a higher weighting in higher yield products, mainly personal loans and car loans, which will balance the mix between individuals and corporates. This will allow us to sustain a good level of NIM as inflation continues to decrease, which has also a lower impact on the inflation adjustment line item of the income statement. As we continue to grow our loan portfolio and change the mix in products, we will also leverage the balance sheet, allowing us to sustain our financial income. As we continue our loan growth in real terms at high growth rates, we will continue to utilize capital. That is why we project the capital ratio at the end of the year to be lower than the one we are reporting at the end of the third quarter, so we expect it to go from 19% to between 17% and 18%. We will continue that trend, depending on the level of growth we achieve and the demand we see for credit into 2025.

Thank you, Mariano. And just a follow-up on this. The loan-to-deposit ratio remains kind of low for all the Argentine banks. Given what you said now about this normalization and loan book expansion, how should we think about the evolution of this loan-to-deposit ratio? Should we expect, for example, next year to be at 60% and then in '26 at 70%? Just wanted to understand how we should think about this evolution?

Yes, you're correct, Ernesto. We expect that ratio to continue increasing as we transition from Central Bank and Treasury securities to loans. Now, we are close to 60%. During 2025, we expect to increase that ratio to levels of 70%. Note that this increase isn't as important as our loan growth because we will also be growing deposits. So we will grow loans at a higher pace, but we're also growing deposits. So it won't reach 90% in one year, but we expect it to go from 60%, which is the level we are now, to the range of 70%.

Perfect. And then for my second question is on your investment securities held to maturity. Given the impact of lower rates and inferior inflation, is there a possibility that you have to recognize an impairment at some point? I don't know if you have talked to your external auditor, and I don't know if they have recommended something about this.

No. Regarding the securities that we held to maturity and according to IFRS, we have accrued the internal rate of return at the beginning of the instrument. In the case of these inflation-linked bonds, the majority of them — because we also have a trading portfolio that is at market value — but the vast majority of our inflation-linked bonds are held to maturity. Thus, according to our accounting standards, they accrue inflation. We will continue doing that at maturity. We will only recognize a loss if the bond is trading below its book value and we sell it, but our intention is to keep it because that was a hedge against inflation, which now seems like it isn't as necessary as before, but it's still covering against inflation and any uptick in inflation we could see. It's also important to remind that we are positioning our balance sheet in loans with fixed rates through our loan portfolio growth, so with inflation-linked bonds, we only cover our shareholders' equity and then we are positioning in fixed rates to capitalize on any interest rate declines.

Perfect, Mariano, thank you very much.

Thank you, Ernesto. Our next question comes from Carlos Gomez-Lopez at HSBC. Hello, good morning, good afternoon, Carlos.

Hello, good morning. First of all, welcome and good luck to Gustavo in his new role. Hope he's very, very successful here like he was in his previous one. So for the bank, I don't think you have given us your economic forecast for next year, not that anybody really knows. But what are you counting on in terms of GDP growth, inflation, and the currency for 2025? Also, you mentioned that you will be consuming some capital, obviously, since you are growing so fast. I mean, if you are consuming about 2% of CET1 per quarter, I mean that suggests that within, I would say, six quarters or so, you might want to add capital to your growing business. Is that a realistic conclusion? Thank you.

Let me take that answer first initially, and then I'll pass it on to Mariano. In terms of — what we have seen in the third quarter compared to the second quarter, there was a huge increase in retail loan penetration. We plan to continue to pursue this trend to have a balance sheet that is strong in terms of NIM creation. I believe that with a decline in inflation, the credit penetration among individuals would be an expanding feature of all the banking system. In our case, this would certainly be the case. So, Mariano, do you want to continue on that, please?

Thank you, Patricio, and thank you, Carlos, for your question. Let me tell you first what our projections are. Regarding GDP, we now foresee a GDP decline for this year at 2.9%, which is a lower decline than we expected some quarters ago, but we are seeing good levels of activity. The economy is starting to grow rapidly in the fourth quarter. This will reduce the overall decline for this year. For 2025, we expect an increase between 4% and 5%, which is a very strong increase in activity that we also expect will foster employment. In terms of inflation, we expect this year to end at 120%. For next year, we expect a level of 30%, which is a very sharp decline in inflation, supported by the last monthly inflation figures. With that trend, we expect the interest rate to continue declining. It may not drop as quickly as this year, so they could go as low as 30% or 31% in 2025. Regarding the exchange rate, we expect the government to continue to grow at an impact of 2% and inflation continues to drop, which may also lower that valuation at the rate of 2% to 1%.

Okay. And in terms of your capital needs?

With our current capital, we can grow 100% in real terms. While we foresee a very high growth for next year, which would be higher than 50%, maybe 60% in real terms, we are not expecting to consume all that capital within next year. When I say 100%, I refer to the capital ratio not going below 89%, which is above the regulatory level. Clearly, it will be lower than the end of this year, so it will be lower than 17% next year because we expect very strong growth. We also expect to outperform the industry, but we are not expecting a need to raise capital in 2025.

Very clear. And again, good luck. Thank you very much.

Thank you, Carlos. Our next questions come from Brian Flores with Citi. Hello, Brian. How are you? Please go ahead.

Hi, team. Good morning. My first question is a follow-up on Carlos' question because I think it's very important. You have grown year-to-date risk-weighted assets by 180%, while loans are only up 60%. Your Tier 1 is at 19%, while the system’s ratio is at 34%. As you have stated, you have gained 60 basis points in market share. So maybe a question for Paco, who is just beginning here. You mentioned your priority is to grow, so it seems that your position on capital is limited. How are you thinking about growing from a strategic perspective? Could you mention the segments you want to target? Also, Mariano mentioned that you do not foresee any need to raise capital in 2025. However, for example, Galicia just mentioned that they expect to end 2025 with the Tier 1 levels you already have in 2024. So can you help us understand how you could continue gaining market share when everyone is overfunded and seems to be in a better position to grow? It would be great to hear that. And then I'll ask my second question. Thank you.

Thank you, Carlos. I've been here for 45 days. In these days, we are working very hard and very fast to define initiatives for the next year to grow rapidly. I've been looking at all the areas because I want to make substantial growth in commercial sites, commercial volumes in terms of loans, payroll service accounts, and increase our savings and checking accounts, basically on the individual side. We also want to increase our volumes and market shares in the corporate sector, specifically targeting SMEs and larger corporations. We are defining a very strong and extensive plan to have initiatives and plans in place to grow, and I will present this plan in the next quarter. So we are working on that.

If I may add, I'd say that as I mentioned earlier, we will focus on high NIM loans. Comparing the third quarter with the second quarter shows hints of our potential for next year to ensure that our growth is not only strong but also very profitable, allowing us to build capital and sustain growth moving forward. We understand your comparisons with other banks, but we are confident that the way our strategic plan is being built will ensure sustainable growth.

One more thing, Carlos. I can't explain more about this plan or these initiatives because we are still building the strategy, but you will receive a full disclosure and explanation in the next quarter. Believe me, we are actively working on it, and I feel confident to present an excellent plan for the next year. So give me a couple of months, and I will show you in the next quarter.

Super clear. Thank you very much. And also, can you elaborate a bit on the plans for your investment platform? Where do you see it in the next 18 months? Real wages could also bring some tailwinds here, as people may have more available income to save and invest. So how are you thinking strategically about this initiative?

Yes. Sure. Thank you for the question. In a more stable macroeconomic environment, we believe that some avenues for growth for IOL will come from our business in US securities. Today, this is very fractional for Argentines because of the population, but it's something Argentines like and are used to using a lot when we were able to offer it to them. We believe that retail customers will transition to a more investment-oriented approach and invest in equities and bonds and decrease their exposure to FX in Argentina. We believe they will still want to buy dollars, but we are working on different options to give our customers available options for the best investments. Additionally, we are looking forward to expanding our private banking offerings and SMEs. For private banking, we plan to grow our customer base and offer new products. For SMEs, we are looking to streamline operations; we are close to launching 24-hour onboarding and a 24/7 cash management feature to assist them in making financial decisions. We believe these will be key avenues for growth. We are also working on our investment service product and will introduce this to potential customers.

Let me add that the technology we have built in the last 1.5 years in terms of an API infrastructure in the bank and Invertironline allows us to improve speed for customer transactions significantly. What was done in a few minutes is now done in seconds. This capability is crucial because it allows for wise investment choices for our clients. Invertironline has become a relevant player in the distribution of capital market transactions. Notably, big corporations are now directly approaching Invertironline for distributing particularly dollar-denominated applications or transactions. Capital markets are still in early stages in Argentina, much like credit, so we have a fascinating path forward.

Perfect. Super clear. And just a quick follow-up Patricio because as you speak of it, I can see your enthusiasm and excitement. Do you think this is an asset that will always be part of Supervielle? Or is it on the table to create value and spin it off? I'm just thinking about this.

For us, what is on the table is what's best for our investors — the investors of Grupo Supervielle. If we believe there is an opportunity to deliver value by attracting a strategic investor to Invertironline, we will indeed consider it because this is part of our strategy to gain value. Let me clarify something: as of today, 97% of Invertironline clients are clients from other banks. Only 2.5% to 3% of Invertironline clients are Banco Supervielle clients. This indicates the numerous opportunities ahead, both for sales and as Invertironline continues to disrupt the financial system.

Thank you, Brian. The next question comes from Marina Mertens with Latin Securities. Hello, good morning, Marina, how are you?

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I have a question regarding your loan book. While the third quarter showed a slowdown in loan expansion, year-to-date, you still remain above the industry. Looking ahead, do you expect to continue outpacing the industry and gaining market share? If so, which lines — I mean, you mentioned you will continue to target the retail segment, but which lines in particular should we expect to see growth? And can we also expect a rebound in the commercial segment?

Marina, thank you for your question. Yes, regarding loan growth, the lines that we expect to be more dynamic looking forward are personal loans and car loans in the retail segment. But we will also continue growing in the commercial side, mainly focusing on our medium-sized corporates and the key sectors of the economy, such as oil and gas. So far, we have primarily grown through short-term lending, factoring, but in the future, as economic rebounds are fostered by growth and consumption, we will expect to grow not only on the retail side but also on normal terms for corporates such as leasing, for example.

I would like to add something. Hi, Marina. In terms of oil and gas, we are increasing our capacity and structure in that area to capture more business and volume in that sector. So we are increasing our participation and focus there.

Thank you, Marina. I don't know, Carlos, if I see your hand raised again? I don't know if you have any questions? No, I think not. Okay. So I think we can end our Q&A session today. Thank you for joining us. We appreciate your interest in our company, and we look forward to meeting more of you over the coming months and providing financial business updates next quarter.

Can I — I'd like to make a statement before you go. I would like to say that I'm very glad to be here in this room with my two partners, Diego Pizzulli, CEO of Invertironline, and Paco Manriquez, CEO of Banco Supervielle. I think that now, we have a very strong management team with strong skills in order to build the strategy we need to deliver strong value in the next few years. I am conscious that as of today, in the competitive scenario that we have, where we compete with fintechs, neobanks, and traditional banks, we need to deliver a value proposition for individuals and also ensure that we continue building a solid franchise on the corporate side. Diego and Paco's interests are completely aligned with long-term value creation as they both benefit from a robust stock option plan, which I think embodies the philosophy we want to instill in the company — in terms of the people that work here thinking as business owners and making decisions to deliver value. Thank you very much.

Okay? So have a nice day, and see you next time at the next earnings release or in any of the many meetings we may have in the future. Goodbye.