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Grupo Supervielle S.A. Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call

Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV)

Earnings Call FY2025 Q4 Call date: 2025-12-31 Concluded

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Ana Bartesaghi Head of Investor Relations

Good morning, and welcome to Grupo Supervielle's Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. I'm Ana Bartesaghi, Treasurer and IRO. Today's conference call is being recorded. Speaking today are Patricio Supervielle, our Chairman and CEO; and Mariano Biglia, our CFO. Gustavo Paco Manriquez, Banco Supervielle's CEO; and Diego Pizzulli, CEO of InvertirOnline, will also be available during the Q&A session. Before we begin, please note this call may include forward-looking statements. Please refer to our earnings release and SEC filings for further details.

Thank you, Ana. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. In the fourth quarter, we delivered results within our guidance range and positioned the balance sheet for industry recovery. The period was marked by elevated system-wide credit stress, which we were not immune to. However, in several key areas, we outperformed the industry. Let me walk you through the key drivers of our quarter results. First, loan growth continued to outperform the industry. Total loans grew 8% sequentially and 37% year-over-year. Growth was led by corporates, which expanded 25% quarter-over-quarter and now represents 63% of the portfolio. Retail balances declined sequentially as we prioritized risk-adjusted returns and tightened underwriting in response to the more volatile environment. Second, asset quality reflects the peak of the stress cycle. The NPL ratio increased to 5%, consistent with industry trends, rapid loan growth since 2024 and the significantly restrictive monetary conditions early in the year. Cost of risk reached the upper end of our guidance range, also reflecting updated macroeconomic assumptions under IFRS 9. Third, funding remained resilient despite strategic deleveraging. Total deposits declined sequentially as we reduced wholesale institutional funding to optimize the balance sheet. In contrast, core transactional balances remain resilient. U.S. dollar deposits increased 42% year-over-year, gaining 60 basis points of market share, while remunerated accounts continued gaining traction among payroll and SME clients. Fourth, we reported an attributable net loss of ARS 19.5 billion, narrowing significantly from the third quarter loss. The improvement reflected margin recovery and strict cost control despite elevated cost of risk based on updated macro assumptions and system-wide credit stress. Encouragingly, NIM rebounded sequentially, supported by lower funding costs and better investment portfolio yields, while personnel expenses declined 6% sequentially. Importantly, CET1 strengthened to 15.4%, up 220 basis points quarter-over-quarter, preserving flexibility for 2026 growth. In sum, 4Q '25 was a transition quarter marked by strong loan growth, peak cost of risk, margin recovery and solid capital. Let me now turn to the broader environment. The fourth quarter marked the peak of an exceptionally tight monetary policy, followed by early signs of normalization after the midterm elections. Leading up to the elections, high real interest rates and elevated reserve requirements significantly constrained liquidity across the financial system. While these measures helped stabilize the exchange rate and contain inflation, they weigh on margins, credit demand and asset quality. Following the October elections, conditions began to improve. The strengthened legislative mandate reinforced the government's reform agenda. Since then, we have observed declining interest rates, gradually improving liquidity and a recovery in sovereign bond prices. And while reserve requirements remain elevated, they have started to ease. Looking into 2026, the foundation for financial recovery is in place. Fiscal discipline continues, FX reserve accumulation supports stability and disinflation should allow nominal rates to decline. As monetary conditions normalize, we expect economic activity to recover gradually, creating the basis for renewed credit expansion. Policy execution will remain critical; maintaining disinflation, normalizing monetary conditions and advancing FX liberalization in an orderly manner are essential to consolidating recovery. If that path is maintained, we believe it should translate into lower volatility, more stable funding conditions and greater predictability for businesses and households. In that environment, a disciplined and well-organized banking system will play a central role, and we believe Supervielle is well positioned to participate in that expansion. Let me briefly close with strategy. We continue executing on the road map presented last year centered on profitable growth, targeted segments and ecosystem integration. At the core is a customer-centric and technology-enabled model. At the bank, our purpose is clear: to accompany customers in their daily lives with simple and agile financial experiences. That purpose guides the evolution of the Supervielle app as a true financial hub, integrating payments, savings, investments and services into a unified experience. More than 70% of transactions are digital, reinforcing both engagement and operating efficiency. Our AI-powered WhatsApp interactions and the integration of the Supervielle store with Mercado Libre expand distribution while preserving our tech-and-touch model. The remunerated account in pesos and U.S. dollars for payroll and SME accounts continue to strengthen our funding base, deepen primary relationships and increase client balances. Adoption has been solid, reinforcing the quality and stability of our deposit mix. Integration between the bank and InvertirOnline is accelerating. Cross-selling initiatives are bringing high-value brokerage clients into the banking platform while offering our banking base seamless access to investment products. At InvertirOnline, our strategic focus is clear. As Argentina's leading retail digital broker, InvertirOnline operates a scalable technology-driven platform that allows us to grow assets and revenues with strong operating leverage. We see a significant opportunity in the development of Argentina's domestic capital market, which remains at an early stage relative to the size of the economy and the financial savings potential. As macro conditions normalize, we expect deeper financial intermediation and greater participation in investment products. To capture that opportunity, we are focusing more on affluent clients, corporations and IFAs, segments that allow us to accelerate growth in assets under custody while enhancing the quality and stability of our revenue mix. Our objective is not only to grow accounts, but to scale assets under custody in a disciplined and profitable way, leveraging our digital capabilities, ecosystem integration with the bank and a differentiated product offering across local and international markets. Looking ahead, our priorities are aligned with Argentina's normalization cycle. At the bank, we are positioned to capture the next credit expansion as monetary conditions normalize and liquidity requirements ease. Supported by a strong capital base and disciplined risk management, we will scale corporate lending across the value chains of dynamic industries and selectively expand retail credit as consumer confidence strengthens. At the same time, we will continue reinforcing the Supervielle app as a core financial hub of our ecosystem, driving engagement, efficiency and operating leverage. At InvertirOnline, the opportunity is equally structural. As inflation declines and risk appetite returns, Argentina's domestic capital market has significant room to expand. Across both platforms, AI is becoming a transversal capability, enhancing productivity, optimizing processes and elevating the client experience. With that, I will turn the call over to Mariano to review our financial performance in greater detail.

Thank you, Patricio, and good day to everyone. Let's turn to Slide 6. We reported an attributable net loss of nearly ARS 20 billion in the fourth quarter, improving materially from the ARS 55 billion loss in the prior quarter. November marked a turning point with declining rates supporting better margins towards year-end. Client net financial income increased 21% sequentially, driven by lower funding costs combined with higher loan volumes and yields despite a greater share of commercial loans in the mix. Market-related net financial income improved by ARS 85 billion sequentially, reflecting lower funding costs and improved trading results as sovereign bond prices recovered and investment portfolio yields normalized. Inflation adjustment increased 10%. Net fee income rose modestly sequentially, supported by brokerage activity. Personnel, administrative and G&A increased 6% sequentially, partly reflecting seasonal factors and commercial initiatives. For the full year, however, expenses declined 9% in real terms, confirming structural efficiency gains. Loan loss provisions increased 75% sequentially, reflecting higher system-wide delinquency and, to a lesser extent, updated macroeconomic assumptions within our expected credit loss framework. This was the primary driver of the quarterly loss. Turning to the loan portfolio. Loans increased 8% sequentially, outperforming 2% system growth and 37% year-over-year, in line with the industry. Commercial lending drove expansion, up 25% sequentially and 64% year-over-year, representing 63% of the portfolio. Growth was concentrated in working capital and export-related sectors where risk-adjusted returns remain attractive. Retail loans declined 4% sequentially and increased 8% year-over-year, reflecting stricter underwriting standards and deliberate moderation in origination amid elevated rates and higher system-wide delinquency. Our goal remains to return to a more balanced retail-corporate mix as credit conditions stabilize. Turning to asset quality. The NPL ratio increased to 5% from 3.9% in the prior quarter, broadly in line with industry trends, reflecting higher delinquency levels amid system-wide credit stress and the seasoning of prior retail growth. Net cost of risk rose to 10.4% in the quarter. For the full year, net cost of risk was 6.2%. Coverage remained sound at 112%. Importantly, trends began improving toward year-end. December and January trends reflect the outcome of our collection and refinancing initiatives at the branch level, targeting individual and SME customers, reducing migration into advanced delinquency buckets and showing moderation in net cost of risk. While we remain cautious, current indicators suggest the fourth quarter likely marked the peak in provisioning under current assumptions. Moving to deposits. Deliberate balance sheet optimization resulted in a 6% sequential decline in total deposits, particularly in higher-cost wholesale institutional funding as we actively adjusted our liability mix to improve funding quality and reduce cost volatility. By contrast, core transactional balances increased significantly with checking accounts up 39% and retail savings accounts rising 29%, supported by December seasonality and the continued traction of our remunerated account strategy. Year-over-year, retail and commercial deposits increased 17% in real terms, reflecting stronger primary relationships and funding stability. Turning to Page 10. Net financial income reached ARS 246 billion in the quarter, up 82% sequentially and 1% year-over-year, recovering from extraordinary short-term pressures in the prior quarter. This was driven mainly by three factors: First, peso cost of funds declined approximately 400 basis points as deposits reprice following the drop in market rates, coupled with lower wholesale funding. Second, market-related NIM improved materially, rising to 26% from 11% in the prior quarter, driven by bond price recovery and the less volatile rate environment. Third, loan portfolio NIM improved 1.7 percentage points to 16.9% sequentially as we repriced the credit book. Let's now turn to the next slide to review our perspectives for the year. We expect real growth in loans between 25% and 30%, led by corporate lending as financial intermediation normalizes. Retail credit is expected to progressively regain momentum alongside improvements in economic activity, employment and disposable income. Under current regulations, peso-denominated loans are expected to grow faster than dollar loans. Deposits are projected to expand between 20% and 25%, supported by stronger client relationships. In our base case, peso deposits are expected to lift growth, while the recent implementation of the tax amnesty law provides additional upside potential for dollar balances. For asset quality, we expect the NPL ratio to range between 5% and 6% for the year with a temporary peak in first Q '26, reflecting the lag effects of last year's volatility. Underlying trends are stabilizing. Cost of risk is projected between 6% and 6.5%, consistent with normalization. NIM is expected to range between 14% and 16%. While interest rate volatility and reserve requirements remain high, improving funding dynamics and disciplined asset pricing should support margins. A temporary shift towards corporate lending may moderate margins, but positions the balance sheet for sustainable growth. Turning to Slide 10. We expect net fee income to expand around 5% in real terms, driven by banking and brokerage activity. Structural operating expenses are anticipated to remain broadly stable in real terms, reflecting sustained cost discipline and headcount efficiencies, partially offset by depreciation and higher taxable revenues. In terms of profitability, we project full year ROE guidance of 4% to 9% range, reflecting upside opportunities from macro improvements and the relaxation of restrictive monetary policies, stronger credit growth, the increased opportunity to expand affluent clients in InvertirOnline and additional efficiency opportunities at the bank. We expect ROE to improve sequentially as margins recover and operating leverage builds. Lastly, we anticipate ending the year with a CET1 ratio of between 11% and 13%. This concludes our prepared remarks. We are now opening the floor for Q&A.

Operator

The first question comes from Brian Flores with Citibank.

Speaker 4

I have a question on capital. Your core equity Tier 1 ratio rose about 15% in the quarter. And we saw, as you mentioned, it was aided by the election recovery and some shifts in the investment portfolio. So given that you mentioned 2026 is slated for a renewed expansion in lending I just wanted to check with you how much of this capital buffer is truly structural? And how much do you think it's a temporary reflection of the higher real rates and the low risk-weighted asset density? I just wanted to understand if we could see this ratio revert towards the 13% levels once growth reaccelerates. And also, if I may, are you planning on changing anything regarding your dividend policy here on capital?

Thank you, Brian, for your question. Regarding the capital level, as you said, we ended the year with about 15% of Tier 1 capital ratio. With that, we can fund growth expected for 2026 and, according to our guidance, by the end of the year the capital ratio will be in a range between 11% and 13%. The increase in the capital ratio compared to September is in part related to off-balance-sheet losses because as of September our investment portfolio had lower market prices than balance-sheet values; those losses were reduced during the fourth quarter. That had an impact on deferred tax assets, which are deducted, so this deduction was reduced; that's why we could increase our capital despite the quarterly loss and loan growth. From now on, those extraordinary movements were mostly neutralized. So we don't expect big changes in that part of the composition of capital during 2026. The capital level will be set by reinvestment of profits and the loan growth that we now foresee between 25% and 30% in real terms for the year. So those are the dynamics on the Tier 1 ratio that we see for 2026. Regarding dividends, as we had a negative result in 2025, we are not expecting to pay dividends in 2026. Profits during the year will be reinvested, and in 2027 the shareholders will decide on distribution of profits of 2026. But so far for the next shareholders meeting, we are not recommending any dividend distribution.

Basically, sorry, to complement. So we believe that with our current capital base, it is sufficient to fund loan growth projected for 2026, while remaining comfortably within the CET1 range that we announced.

Speaker 4

Perfect. And if I just follow up, Patricio, Mariano and team, we have this sense speaking with investors that maybe there are limited catalysts for more enthusiasm in maybe the Argentine bank space. Of course, Patricio, I think you mentioned in your remarks maybe the FX liberalization, maybe the reforms. But if you could elaborate a bit on what you think could help a bit on the market sentiment, particularly for the banking segment, I think it would be great color here.

Well, I think that there are various catalysts. Let me first start with the state of the union address that was given by President Milei on Sunday. We have seen a very confident President talking to the Chamber and also stating that he is going to pursue an extremely ambitious reform agenda, which I think is very positive because it encompasses a lot of institutional building for Argentina. I think besides all the laws that have either been passed like labor reform or potentially, in the near future, the glaciers law which is going to help investment in the mining industry, it will be essential if the government at a certain point decides to go to the international markets — that would be a very strong signal for refinancing the treasury, but at the same time impacting domestic rates and eventually lowering reserve requirements because at this stage the government secures a restrictive monetary policy to build reserves and avoid volatility in the dollar. So it's all connected. That by itself would be one of the factors instilling confidence in the banking system. At the same time, with all these laws passed, particularly the fiscal reform and what's going on in dynamic industries, I think it will improve the job market and eventually help instill more confidence. But I understand your question, and I am positive, but we need to wait.

Operator

The next question comes from Pedro Leduc with Itaú.

Speaker 5

First, on your loan book growth outlook for the year. You also grew a lot of loans in the fourth quarter. I'm trying to reconcile it with the still staggering pace of NPLs that we are seeing. You even mentioned in the guidance that it will tick up again in the first quarter. But fourth quarter, again, was the peak of provisions. Just trying to reconcile everything: that you're still seeing NPLs going up and you want to grow the loan book at a pretty fast pace, but you feel like provisions have peaked. I'm trying to put all of this together and maybe understand on the provision side whether it wouldn't be more prudent to increase coverage along the year as you want to keep growing at a fast pace.

Mariano will complement, but what we have seen is a clear improvement in collection trends in December. This continued in January and in February. So I think that there is a peak. But of course, the NPL ratio reflects prior period delinquencies — collection performance has improved. Mariano, do you want to complement on that?

Yes. As Patricio explained, loan loss provisions, particularly for the retail segment, are charged in advance of NPL recognition because when we see delinquency in certain products, mainly retail products, we make most of the charge before the credit gets to 90 days past due, which is the moment where we recognize it as a nonperforming loan. So in the fourth quarter, we saw a peak in loan loss provisions that will most probably translate into a peak of NPLs in the first quarter. But the actions we engaged in during December and January, with the branch network adding collection efforts to contain delinquency and to resume payments in individuals and smaller SMEs, have translated into indicators of improvement that will most probably reduce charges in the first quarter of 2026 and have the NPLs of the first quarter as a big peak and then reduce thereafter.

Speaker 5

That's a very clear position, Gustavo. And if I may, on a follow-up regarding your ROE guidance of 4% to 9%. I really like the slide you put there with the main assumptions; it's very useful. As the year starts, however, do you think we'll already be in positive territory for ROEs in 1Q or not just yet?

In terms of ROEs, we believe that we can expect sequential improvements throughout 2026. We saw, as we mentioned, in 4Q 2025 recovery in NIM and then cost of risk stabilization with improvements in collections, which makes us construct a constructive view on the broader normalization of credit costs. Interest rate volatility that we have seen in the first two months of the year has decreased, which should help enhance margin and profitability. We expect our ROE to move into double digits by the end of 2026. As we continue expanding the loan book we look forward to higher-margin retail lending. With sustained cost discipline, we should see the path back to high-teens ROEs by late 2027 and 2028.

Operator

The next questions come from Pedro Offenhenden with Latin Securities.

Speaker 7

I wanted to ask on the previous release, you highlighted a decision to deleverage the balance sheet during the quarter. Should we view this as a temporary adjustment in response to volatility? Or can we see it again moving forward?

Yes. Thank you for your question. These are mainly tactical movements because the reduction in the balance sheet size is related to wholesale deposits where, on the other hand, we have reserve requirements and securities. So these are tactical movements. It's not what we expect for the rest of the year. When we see opportunities, we can expand our balance sheet in order to profit.

But let me add that there is a more structural trend behind what we mentioned, which relates to the strong growth we see in remunerated payroll and SME accounts from clients who activated these accounts. These largely consist of new balances and not just money that was there and not being remunerated. The funds come either from mutual funds or, for individuals, from digital wallets. So this is helping us to improve and increase a stable source of funding. I want to stress this is very important for us in acquiring primacy with our clients.

Operator

The next question is from Marcos (name unclear).

Speaker 8

My question is: do you expect low-cost deposits to continue to grow so you can keep expanding in the quarter?

Ana Bartesaghi Head of Investor Relations

Can you repeat the question? I didn't understand.

Speaker 8

We saw that low-cost deposits had growth towards the end of the quarter. Do you expect that trend to continue in this first quarter and beyond?

The focus is to have CASA deposits — current accounts and savings accounts — continue growing in 2026. There is seasonality in the fourth quarter, but our strong focus is on CASA growth. This will help us improve the quality of funding.

Operator

Pedro, I see your hand. You have another question?

Speaker 9

I did. It was more related to InvertirOnline. Here, we had a very nice performance, especially on the bottom line, ARS 8.1 billion. Operationally, assets under custody and active customers are trending very well. I see that you increased headcount here. Maybe walk us through some of the initiatives underway, what drove this quarter's profits upward and what we should expect from InvertirOnline in 2026?

I will defer this to Diego, only saying that this market is nascent. We've seen high inflation over the last few years, but with declining inflation there will be more risk appetite for investors. Diego?

Yes. Thank you, Pedro, for your question. Many of the things that were in place last quarter are ongoing this year. We started to focus more on affluent clients. We believe that with normalization in Argentina, affluent clients will be the highest-value customers we can develop. We are focusing our efforts on building not only products for them, but also advisers that can handle the growing number of customers we have in our wealth management business, and also in SMEs and IFAs. That was part of the shift you saw in the fourth quarter and it's continuing in the first quarter and will be our focus for 2026, 2027 and 2028. We believe normalization will open a lot of opportunities for our business regarding high-value customers. Regarding retail customers, InvertirOnline is the leader in Argentina with 2,100,000 accounts. We have a great UX and we make operating our platform very straightforward for customers. Last year there were some market episodes where customers needed to execute FX transactions and our platform allowed retail customers to operate easily, which supported our leadership. We also had strong demand for certain products last year. Overall, the platform's simplicity and execution capability helped drive the outcomes you saw.

Speaker 11

Very good and much success there in 2026.

Let me add that asset management is becoming increasingly important at InvertirOnline. It already represents roughly 10% of brokerage fee revenues. They have proprietary funds: they launched a third fund a few weeks ago, a peso fund that gathered almost ARS 30 million in inflows quickly. Also, the first fund they launched, a dollar fund, is among the largest in the country. We believe we have a very strong franchise at InvertirOnline.

Operator

We have a question from Carlos Gomez-Lopez with HSBC.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez Analyst — HSBC

I hope you can hear me? I wanted to ask, first, I remember around this time last year we had high growth and you had a contraction of spreads. I would like to know how spreads, both for corporates and individuals, are evolving right now in light of the NPLs that we have had? And second, we are already in March — how is deposit growth and loan growth going so far? Because if you look at aggregate figures, there's barely any expansion, and it seems a bit challenging to get to the growth targets for both deposits and loans that you put in your guidance.

Carlos, thank you for your question. Regarding spreads, we don't see contractions in spreads so far. We have maintained spreads on both corporate and retail portfolios. What has happened is a compositional shift: we are growing more on the corporate side than on the retail side, which results in a higher weight of corporate loans in the portfolio. We are not reducing spreads. In pesos and dollars we see that longer-term loans have higher spreads, although that is still a small portion of the portfolio because most of the commercial portfolio is in pesos for working capital. There is some room to grow in longer-term lending, which carries higher spreads. Regarding the evolution of loans and deposits during the first quarter, we see a good evolution as Patricio explained. There is some seasonality in December that increases loans and CASA balances, but aside from that, we continue with the trends observed in the fourth quarter. We remain prudent on the retail portfolio side.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez Analyst — HSBC

If I can follow up on the spreads: the second half of last year was challenging for the system and the system as a whole barely made money even in the fourth quarter. That makes you wonder: given the level of NPLs and provisions, is the system profitable today? Or do you need to see adjustments? Because as things stand, banks are not making money.

That has to do with NIMs, and NIMs depend on interest rate volatility and inflation. We have seen interest rate volatility begin to decline, which is important to preserve margins. If inflation goes down, as the government has strongly stated they expect in the second half of the year, that will help decrease nominal interest rates and could allow for a reduction in reserve requirements. If peso demand increases and deposits grow, that will fuel balance-sheet expansion and greater leverage for the banking system, which would be positive for return on equity. That's the constructive path we are looking for.

Operator

The next question comes from Kaio Prato with UBS.

Speaker 13

I have a follow-up on the retail credit portfolio. We saw some sequential contraction. In your slides you mentioned retail resuming gradually. Can you provide an update on the retail segment at the system level as well? How are you seeing your credit models after the uptick in NPLs, overall consumer demand and the banking appetite for this segment, including fintech competition? And when do you think retail should start to recover at least on your side?

Yes. As you noted, there was contraction in the retail portfolio in the fourth quarter and our plan is to grow gradually in 2026 only when we see conditions improve for this segment. So far we see better early indicators on collections for retail products. What will be important is the level of activity and the decrease in interest rate volatility we saw between July and October and to some extent in January. This is very important to resume activity across industries in Argentina because right now the recovery is uneven across sectors.

Our main focus is lending to our customer base. We have adjusted our credit models to prioritize primary customers. The retail branches have been focused on collections and we have achieved good results. We are also looking to attract new customers with updated credit models in order to increase our retail credit book. In short, we have changed some processes to be more effective and to improve product profitability.

Looking forward to 2026, retail acceleration will depend on continued disinflation, reduction in nominal rates, improved consumer confidence — particularly in the job market and disposable income — and eventually lower reserve requirements. Fintechs are in the market and will start lending to certain segments; we are conscious of that competition and view it positively as healthy competition.

Operator

We have a question in the Q&A box: If the government allows banks to lend in U.S. dollars to borrowers without dollar-linked income, how would Supervielle position itself competitively? Would dollar lending improve spreads and return on equity structurally, or would it mainly shift balance sheet composition?

I think this is an ongoing discussion in the financial system because there is a lot of dollar liquidity that is not being used by banks. We believe we should take a cautious approach: currency mismatch continues to be a risk. We need a fiscal anchor for some time and eventually Central Bank independence and a broad political consensus on the agenda. We're not there yet. We would take a selective approach and be open to lending dollars to top-tier companies with appropriate protections.

Current regulations already allow banks to lend dollars in certain circumstances: you can lend dollars to the export chain, and also if you have bonds or external financing, you can extend dollar loans. So today, dollar lending to companies is possible under those frameworks.

Ana Bartesaghi Head of Investor Relations

Not with deposits, but yes, with other funding sources.

Exactly. We will maintain a selective approach on dollar lending.

Ana Bartesaghi Head of Investor Relations

We have a couple of questions coming from Ernesto Gabilondo with Bank of America. I'll read some of them. We have a couple of minutes; maybe first, which I think we have not answered yet: the deposit reserve requirement is expected to decline from 50% to 45% by the end of March. Is there any further timeline to continue reducing this requirement to improve peso liquidity? Or does management believe the administration will maintain a restrictive monetary policy to preserve fiscal surplus and manage FX stability ahead of the 2027 presidential election?

We don't have any news beyond what has been announced. The regulation is maturing the reduction which was offset with securities. That's the only update we have.

Ana Bartesaghi Head of Investor Relations

Only until the end of March. That's the only thing we have. The reduction is maturing and was offset with securities; that's all we have right now.

We believe the administration has signaled it will maintain a restrictive monetary policy. However, this is dynamic: if the policy becomes too much of a hindrance for economic activity and they feel more comfortable with building foreign reserves — which they are doing a strong job on — they may ease. But the bias today is restrictive.

Ana Bartesaghi Head of Investor Relations

Our best-case scenario embedded in the guidance assumes no further reduction in reserve requirements beyond current announcements.

Regarding the macro assumptions behind our guidance: inflation of 22.4%, GDP growth of 3.7% and an exchange rate of approximately ARS 1,750 by the end of 2026.

Ana Bartesaghi Head of Investor Relations

Thank you all for participating. I think this is the last question. The earnings call today comes to an end. We appreciate your interest in our company, and we look forward to meeting more of you over the coming months and providing financial and business updates next quarter. In the interim, we remain available to answer any questions you may have. Have a nice day.