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Capital Markets Day · 2025-09-15
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join me over here. Hey, good morning everyone. My name is Sheldon Van Der Coy. I'm the chief executive officer of Triple Flag Precious Metals. Very pleased to be here at the Denver Gold Show once again this year. I'll be making forward-looking statements and the usual cautions apply. We founded Triple Flag in 2016. We didn't start with an endowment. We didn't start with a portfolio. We actually built this portfolio and this company asset by asset, transaction by transaction and as i look back i'm really pleased with what we've accomplished over the years it's been nine years um current market cap is just shy of six billion us dollars uh this year we're right on track to hit our guidance of 105 to 115 000 gold equivalent ounces that actually places us number four among the precious metals royalty in the streaming space better yet we're We're looking at 135,000 to 145,000 ounces going into 2029 and that's the outcome of a number of growth projects that we have on the come. That's embedded growth in the portfolio that has nothing to do with future transactions that we hope to accomplish between now and then. There's 237 assets. 30 of them produce the current cash flow. That leaves great optionality for shareholders on the remaining 200 plus assets. A lot of that value, I think, just isn't being recognized in the share price today, and that really represents upside for investors that come into the story now. This model is fantastic for producing cash flow. We share that cash flow with shareholders. We first instituted our dividend on our IPO in 2021. We've increased the dividend every year since then. It's now $0.23 per share. Going forward, we're looking at increasing that every year going forward as well. and last we have a clean balance sheet if we're not debt-free at the end of the quarter we'll be debt-free shortly thereafter we have a billion dollars of available liquidity and financing to us and we'll be looking to add further value which I'm going to touch on to come our portfolio produces very robust cash flows what's going to be very key for shareholders as we go forward is what kind of value do we generate by reinvesting those cash flows into further streams and royalties generating compounding growth per share for shareholders in order to give an indication i'd like to look at the past and show what we've done we've deployed approximately 2.8 billion dollars over the course of the nine years most of that deployment was actually since 2020 our big deployment was you know rb plat north parks the the mavericks acquisition so this isn't like long dated the fruits of like generations past this is fairly recent you've actually received over 1.3 billion in cash flow on that and the current analyst nav so this isn't our internal model that the the analyst consensus puts our analyst asset nav at a little over 3.3 billion what's what's key here is that's actually greater than what we uh what we've invested so you're getting the cash flow yield you're not losing any value on the asset side and the other thing that I'll point out is that the analysts reflect an average price of about $2,600 which is really where consensus gold prices sit today. I haven't checked my ticker in the last 20 minutes but last I saw was about $3,600 an ounce and if you're constructive on the gold price as I certainly am you can expect to see that consensus gold price move up and that actually analyst NEV will move up along with it too and that's even without the gold price moving up and just consensus catching up to spot. I'd also like to direct your attention to the number on the left-hand side which is we've deployed on average $280 million a year. That's what generated these excess returns, this excess shareholder value. Our current run rate cash flow generation is over $300 million a year. So that means we can actually generate the same sort of capital deployment from just existing cash flows going forward. And that's very powerful for driving per share growth. We can deploy that $280 million a year plus. We won't need to dilute. We don't need to issue equity for that. And again, our real focus is on growing value per share that's that's really what we're aimed at i'd like to touch on our track record of growth and production this uh this chart actually represents the entire history of the company we founded it in 2016 our first revenues were in 2017 and you can see a steadily steady increase uh going up through 2025 and we're right on track for 2025. this actually doesn't reflect the gold price increase if you were to overlay uh cash flow measures or revenue measures it would be that much more steep because you get this production impact plus the impact of the gold price what i'd really like to focus on here is the bar that's the 2029 outlook and that's the 135 to 145 000 ounces that we respect we expect to be generating in 2029 a number of growth projects on the go it's a very deep portfolio when it comes from many different sources this is already bought and paid for growth i think it represents great upside for shareholders because we trade at very uh very reasonable cash flow multiples today so that cash flow growth in the future is just going to be accretive and build from there. There's three projects I'm going to highlight. One is the Arthur. It's run by Anglo Gold De Shanty. It's located in Nevada. We picked it up this year. Since we acquired our piece, Franco Nevada also picked up a piece of that. I think they're probably seeing the same value that we see. Very excited to be associated with this and I think it's going to be a great source of news flow for our shareholders over time as Anglo Gold De Shanty continues to develop that project and bring it towards production. The next on the list is Kone. That's Cote d'Ivoire. It's run by Montage Gold. We actually acquired a royalty there at a very modest price as part of our acquisition of Mavericks Metals. Since we bought that, it's just really exceeded our expectations. Zae Jin's involved there. Lundin Group's involved there. Martino's put together a fantastic financing package. They're in construction and they're expecting to be in production in 2027 and we're going to benefit. It really illustrates the power of the royalty model where you get these positive surprises over time. The last is Hope Bay. I think this has been a bit under the radar screen. I think it's getting more prominence as we go along. Again, this is a royalty that we acquired as part of our Mavericks Metals acquisition. At the time, McNeco owned it. It was shut down. They were assessing it. We weren't sure what the assessment was going to result in. Since that time, McNeco's made very positive statements about how they see this property developing. The most recent I saw, and again this is public information other people can look this up as well uh they've stated uh could be a 400 000 an ounce per year for decades to come i think agnico is the best possible operator for this asset based up in the canadian far north and nunavut again very exciting project and again shows the ability to drive value over time as our operators make advances on the projects i'm going to close here by just summing up the investment case the investment case really starts with the portfolio and i've already touched on that it's centered in the americas we have a high concentration in Australia. It's well diversified. We have many sources of income. It has a long life to it and it's generating growing cash flow per share. We also have growth embedded in the portfolio. I've already touched on that. I think that makes it a very exciting story going forward. This portfolio is generating cash flows and it's really up to us to generate to redeploy those cash flows and creative transactions for shareholders. We are going to be focused on generating good returns by investing in really good geology doing our due diligence being associated with good operators and in good jurisdictions and throughout we're going to maintain a strong balance sheet and with that i'll uh i'll turn to some questions with uh with lawson thank you
thank you so sheldon um this is your second year as ceo of course you were a cfo before a lot of happened it's been a very exciting year since you became ceo year year and a half marked by the acquisition of Origin Metals. Can you talk a little bit about why you guys are so excited about that acquisition?
Yeah, thanks, Lawson. Origin, we've been tracking that for probably over a year and had a lot of discussions, and we're really waiting for the time when Origin wanted to part ways with the Arthur royalty. What we really like about it is it has a rapidly growing resource base. It's also in the hands of Angola Gulbushanti, So it's in the hands of the company that can build it. They have the technical ability. They have the financial ability. And we think they're going to bring this forward nicely. We also did a lot of work looking at the public data on drill hole results and what was in the current... At the time we did our deal, there were 16 million ounces kind of in the announced resource. We actually thought there was a lot more there because there was good drill holes where you could have a high degree of confidence were not encapsulated in that 16. And we thought there was great potential there as well. We've since heard from Angle Gold, the shanties talking about there being $20-plus million. They're going to bring out more information on this property as time goes on. I think they talked about the back end of this year or early in 26. But basically, we see this as being a Tier 1 property located in Nevada and being operated by one of the major gold companies.
And Franco Nevada recently signed an agreement to acquire royalty.
That's right. Now, we liked our deal before Franco did it as well, but it's nice to see them along too, and I think we're both going to benefit from this property.
Another transaction you did this year, Arcata and Azuka. So interesting in that they're with private companies. You guys have a bit of a niche there. You're pretty effective at finding these private company transactions. So tell us a little bit about the potential to move up production from Azuka. I mean, right now it's targeted for 2029. I mean, is there any potential to move that up? And then what are you expecting now for the wrap-up of Arcata?
So that was a really nice transaction. And we worked with that team for over a year. We've known some of those people for a very long period of time, and we helped put together the financing package that allowed them to buy those two mines. And Arcata right now is being brought back into production. It's Brownfields right now. They're making really good progress. They were talking about end of 25, and I completely believe them, but we were thinking 26 as for what we were putting down in the market. So I expect to see cash flows from Arcata in 2026, and everything looks good there. Actually, we benefited from the silver prices. We've done that, too, and, you know, we did that deal in low 20 silver, and silver is obviously a lot higher, and that's a silver-dominant ore body. Azuka is probably the next leg. So right now, they're focused on Arcata. I think moving up production, I'm just going to pause on that one, but what I'm really pleased with is the progress they're making on Arcata and seeing them really execute and really hitting all the markers so far.
Okay, fantastic. So, thinking with those as context and last year's deals as context, what's the appetite today for more deals? And then, related to that, I mean, thinking about the pipeline that you guys are looking at, what are you seeing in the pipeline in terms of transaction size, time to close, urgency, development stage of the asset, and metal as well? Although, I assume that is gold or silver.
That's probably the easiest one, so we'll start there. Like, we are a precious metals company. That's gold and silver is the focus. We will deviate from there if we see something that looks like a really good opportunity, so it will be more opportunistic. But people sometimes talk about diversifying away from gold and silver. I don't view my mandate as diversifying from gold and silver. We are a gold and silver vehicle. So that's kind of easy, and investor appetite for gold is quite high right now, so that all fits. Pipeline's been really good. I mean, we had a good year deploying. I mean, like, you've already hit on some of the highlights. You know, we got the Arthur Royals you were really pleased with. We've got our CATA and Nazooka. We've got the lithium royalty, Trachobatas, which has just gone into production now, so that's tracking along probably better than our investment case, which is fantastic. There's a few other things in the pipeline, too, which I think have high probability, but they're relatively smaller dollars, so that's nice. There are a lot of opportunities out there. Our peers have been quite active. I mean, Bill was just here with a $5 billion figure for his 2025, you know, And Franco is deployed, Wheaton is deployed, Osisko is deployed. So we're seeing pretty consistent deployment across the sector. There's been a lot of deal flow, and I think it's been pretty high-quality deal flow, which I think really bodes well. And when there's a competitive asset coming up for investment, really it's usually one of, like, the five parties, right? It's Franco, Wheaton, Royal, Osisko, and ourselves. There's other people that will participate, but that's usually where it goes. So it looks good.
So with that as contacts, it is a competitive feel. Maybe becoming more competitive, but I mean, we'll see because there has been some consolidation in the industry. But when you think of triple flows or triple flags approach to closing deals, what do you see as the differentiating factor that allows you to compete?
I think the most, I don't know if this differentiates, but the most important thing when you're doing, when you're allocating capital is a technical due diligence, you know, and so you're really trying to dive deep. You're trying to really engage with the counterparty as well and truly listen to what their objectives are, what they're seeking to accomplish, and seeing if there's a way for us to get our investors the returns that we need with the risk profile that we're comfortable with and also work with them to accomplish their goals. We try to be good partners. We have gotten deal flow through recommendations from people we are counterparties to, and they have talked to their contacts. The mining world is pretty small, right? I think this conference is a good illustration of that. And people have said, so-and-so has said to reach out to you because they've dealt with you. You're always trying to have as many irons in the fire as you can, deal with people very genuinely, try to source our own opportunities. We don't wait for people to knock on our door. We are constantly making proposals to people and putting streaming or royalty alternatives in front of them.
So similar to that question, when you think about the criteria for closing a deal, like a deal that fits well with Triple Flag. What are the things you guys think about, and what came to mind is when you were speaking about those criteria, traditionally you guys had looked at ESG first. So social, community, those things. How do you factor that into your consideration for looking at assets?
Yeah, so I am really firmly of the view that when you talk about technical due diligence, which I said was the most important thing, that includes the geology, it includes the mining engineering, but it also includes the ESG factors. I mean, community license, everyone in this room can think of countless examples of where what would have been an economically advantageous ore body didn't get exploited the right way or turned into a money loser because the community was offside, the social license wasn't obtained. So that is really core. So when we're doing our site visits, you're trying to do a deep live. And really our approach there is use very experienced mining operators, people that have operated mines in Latin America, in Africa. There's a lot of people on our team with a lot of experience and really try to understand what the risks are and what the opportunities are there. So I think it is interwoven really with the understanding of the project. I don't know how you can invest in a mining project without understanding the ESG context of that mine.
You guys have been very successful growing through M&A. It's been a piece of the growth platform. What do you see as the opportunity set for potential consolidation within the royalty streaming space going forward? And what's your appetite for that type of growth?
So I really feel like these are portfolios of assets. And so it really comes down to, are you adding assets at a reasonable price? And so when we did the Mavericks acquisition, we spent a lot of time going through that list of assets, looking at the price that was on offer and trying to make sure that we weren't stretching too far on valuation. And you can't assume everything hits. You've got to give yourself some margin for error. I think that's true for any mining investment, but you're buying a big portfolio, and a lot of it's the art of looking through a big portfolio and coming to an assessment. We did Mavericks in 2023. This is absolutely now, with the passage of time, a great investment for Triple Flag. You know, we picked up a nice Kensington royalty. We talked about the Kone property, Hope Bay. These are all Mavericks assets. Gemfield came through Mavericks as well. SK Creek is a Mavericks asset. So there's really a long list of assets that have really outperformed our investment case. And what that tells me is we didn't have things stretched, so the good news was already baked in. You still had upside. So I think I see corporate M&A as another way to acquire assets. I don't think it's different. I think you have to have the discipline, and if you pay the right price, it's good. If you pay the wrong price, then it's not going to be good. In terms of appetite, we are open to it. We've had success in the past, but you always have to find a view on value that aligns with the other side. So we found that with Mavericks, and, you know, we're open, but we'll see. And we could be a target or we could be a purchaser. We kind of see ourselves as agnostic there. It really comes down to shareholder value. That's all we really care about, and we want to grow the shareholder value.
Interesting. You talked about the dividend. You guys have demonstrated an excellent track record of increasing the dividend every year. What is the criteria for the quantum of that increase? And then other sources of uses of capital, like the buyback. I mean, how do you balance that, and what's your appetite for potentially increasing that buyback now going forward?
Yeah, so we have been active on the buyback from time to time. We start with the dividend because it's really kind of easy, and we've done, like, kind of modest increases per year. They've been about 5% per year, but they add up, right? Like, we've been public for over four years. We've increased the dividend by 20%, which is nice for shareholders, and they see that growth over time. Our dividend as a portion of our cash flows has actually shrunk significantly. So I don't see any problem with continuing to increase, and whether it's 5% or 10%, we'll play that out from year to year as we see the prospects going forward. Our highest and best use, I think, is deploying into opportunities, and one of my slides was the value that we have driven through investing into streams and royalties, and I think that's very, very real. The buyback is something that we look at. We're always eager to buy. What I really like to do is shrink my denominator, so if there's less shares outstanding, then the remaining shares get a bigger piece of North Parks, they get a bigger piece of Sierra Lindo. You guys all know the pitch for NCIB. But I think you're also trying to maintain the ability to deploy going forward because that really adds shareholder value and then also gearing levels, right? So you're trying to balance those three things. You'd like to do all of them. And usually what we're doing is a little bit of each. We've been deploying. We've been growing. We've been increasing the dividend. We've been active on the NCIB. We're, you know, quite opportunistically and trying to have a little bit of all.
Makes sense. Look, I want to give folks in the audience a chance to ask a question. If there are any, please put up your hand. I don't see any immediately. So there's a lot of stuff I wanted to touch on. In the little bit of time remaining, I wanted to go back to something that you discussed in your presentation, which was this idea of hidden value in the portfolio, and you spoke to Hope Bay. Is there anything else in the portfolio that you'd like to highlight we should be thinking about?
Yeah, so one is probably just North Parks. And I think the market now recognizes we've come a long ways. It's moved from CMOC into Evolution, which I think has probably shone a bit brighter light because CMOC was a larger company and probably didn't have the same degree of prominence in the Western markets. But when you look at the size of the resource there, you see the size of the mineral endowment relative to the size of their, you know, processing capacity right now. And I think there's great opportunity going forward in the future. And, you know, that's really up to Evolution to drive. And they're the operators. But I think there's great potential there. The other thing is on the exploration side. So they've only been in the seat there for a little over a year. They've already brought fresh eyes to that asset. And I want to stress, CMOC was a great operator, a great partner for us. But I think there was a different emphasis on exploration in the hands of evolution. So I think that there's a lot of potential there at North Parks. Hope Bay was my other one. And I guess the third one is, I think, Beritica has just a massive endowment. I was there recently. Zhejin operates that. They're putting more capital into that project. There's a lot of gold in that area. So, I mean, I think if we look back in 20 years, that might be one where people say that that actually had a lot more than people gave it credit for at the time.
With that, we have used our time. Thank you very much for being here. That was fantastic, Sheldon. Thank you. Okay, folks, so for this segment, we have one more presentation, and it will be from OR Royalties and from...