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VST · Vistra Corp.

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$148.13 +1.73 (+1.18%) At close · Aug 14
Market Cap
$49.23B
Shares
335.64M
All earnings calls

Earnings call · FY2025 Q4

Vistra Corp. Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call

Vistra Corp. Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call

Concluded Feb 26, 2026 Audio replay
Feb 26, 2026 1:01:43 50 turns
Period
FY2025 Q4
Runtime
1:01:43
Sources
4 artifacts

Executive readout · one minute

What matters this quarter

Vistra reported record full-year 2025 results with ~$5.9B adjusted EBITDA and ~$3.6B adjusted free cash flow before growth, both above the midpoint of original guidance, and issued 2026 guidance of $6.8–$7.6B adjusted EBITDA and $3.925–$4.725B adjusted FCFbG (excluding Cogentrix). The company announced the Cogentrix acquisition (5,500 MW), closed the Lotus acquisition (2,600 MW), and signed long-term nuclear PPAs with AWS and Meta totaling ~3.8 GW.

Nuclear and data center PPAs 70 Growth via acquisitions 52 Load growth and data center demand 37 Record 2025 financial performance 18 Capital return via buybacks 15 TEF / regulatory and policy uncertainty 8

Management tone

Confident

Net tone +75 · low hedging

Grounding quotes
  • “2025 was a transformational year for Vistra. We made several moves that I believe underscore the value of our integrated model.”
  • “For the full year, we achieved approximately $5.9 billion of adjusted EBITDA and approximately $3.6 billion of adjusted free cash flow before growth, both meaningfully above the midpoint of our original guidance ranges.”
  • “We remain confident in the ever-increasing customer demand for power, enthusiastic about the growth opportunities that load growth presents for Vistra and eager to continue to partner with our customers to realize those opportunities and serve their needs.”
  • “Demand growth no longer appears to be episodic, but increasingly durable, a dynamic with important implications for the power sector.”

Forward guidance

5 guided metrics

Management's latest ranges and targets are included below.

Research coverage

4 live sources

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Revenue · derived Q4 $4.58B +13.5% YoY
Net income · derived Q4 $233.00M -47.2% YoY

Research materials

Open the source you need; every reader stays inside this workspace.

Key takeaways

What improved, and what deserves a closer read.

Constructive signals

  • Full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA of ~$5.9B and adjusted FCFbG of ~$3.6B exceeded the midpoint of original guidance by ~$112M and ~$292M, respectively.
  • 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8B–$7.6B and adjusted FCFbG guidance of $3.925B–$4.725B (excluding any potential impact from Cogentrix).
  • Closed 2,600 MW Lotus natural gas acquisition in November 2025 and announced Cogentrix acquisition of ~5,500 MW of natural gas generation, expected to close mid-to-late 2026.
  • Signed industry-leading PPAs for ~3,800 MW of nuclear capacity, including a 20-year AWS agreement for 1,200 MW at Comanche Peak and 20-year Meta agreements for 2,176 MW of operating capacity plus 433 MW of upgrades at PJM nuclear plants.
  • Closed 2,600 MW Lotus deal and signed Meta PJM nuclear agreements already in early 2026, demonstrating continued execution momentum.
  • Strong fleet operational performance during Winter Storm Fern delivered a positive financial outcome despite high gas and power price volatility.

Risks & pressure points

  • Full-year 2025 GAAP Net Income of $944M included an unrealized loss from hedges expected to settle in future years of $808M.
  • Management stated data center-driven load growth impact will not meaningfully begin until late 2027 or early 2028, implying near-term demand pressure is more measured than some third-party forecasts.
  • Cogentrix acquisition expected to close mid-to-late 2026, creating execution and integration risk and is excluded from initial 2026 guidance.
  • Permian Power 1 and 2 projects remain subject to a challenging regulatory/interconnect process, creating uncertainty around timing and TEF participation.

Forward guidance

From the 8-K filed Feb 26, 2026.

Metric Guided
Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA table
2026 Guidance Ranges
$6.8B – $7.6B
Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG table
2026 Guidance Ranges
$3.93B – $4.73B
Net Income (loss) table
2026
$3.01B – $3.64B
Adjusted EBITDA guidance table
2026
$6.72B – $7.52B
Adjusted free cash flow before growth guidance table
2026
$3.76B – $4.56B

Quarter detail

How the reported period landed and where the business moved.

Capital returned

Buybacks · derived
$252.00M
Dividend / share
$0.23
Full-screen source Call document