Wendy's Co Q4 FY2024 Earnings Call

Good morning. Welcome to The Wendy's Company Earnings Results Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. You may begin your conference. Good morning, and thank you for joining our fiscal 2024 fourth quarter and full year earnings conference call. After this brief introduction, Kirk Tanner, President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide a business update and then Ken Cook, Chief Financial Officer, will review our fourth quarter results and share our 2025 financial outlook and capital allocation priorities. From there, we will open up the line for questions. Today's conference call and webcast includes a presentation, which is available on our Investor Relations website. Before we begin, please take note of the safe harbor statement that appears at the end of today's earnings release. This disclosure reminds investors that certain information we discuss today is forward-looking and reflects our current expectations about future plans and performance. Various factors could affect our results and cause those results to differ materially from the projections set forth in our forward-looking statements. Also, some of today's comments will reference non-GAAP financial measures. Investors should refer to our reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure at the end of this presentation or in today's earnings release. If you have questions following today's conference call, please contact me. I will now hand the call over to Kirk.

Thank you, Aaron, and good morning, everyone. I'm going to start by discussing our results for the fourth quarter and highlight progress we made in 2024, and I'll then share our updated capital allocation policy and some of the initiatives underway to deliver sales and EBITDA growth in 2025. Our Q4 results were in line with the expectations that we shared with you on our last earnings call. I am pleased to report global system-wide sales increased over 5% and same-restaurant sales grew over 4%. In the U.S., our traffic and dollar growth outpaced the QSR burger category. Growth was led by the success of our collaboration with Paramount, celebrating SpongeBob's 25th anniversary. At its peak, this fan favorite drove an impressive 20% lift in same restaurant sales with increased traffic and an average check, including a Krabby Patty with nearly double our typical size. This was a great example of what sets Wendy's apart showcasing our approach to partnerships, innovation on our core offerings, supported by strong marketing and execution capabilities. Growth in the quarter was also supported by innovative limited-time offerings, including our Salted Caramel Frosty and Mushroom Bacon Cheeseburger. The morning daypart continued to be a strong contributor to U.S. growth with sales up over 4% compared to the prior year. Internationally, we achieved 11% system-wide sales growth on a constant currency basis led by strong net unit growth. We continue to gain momentum with our strategy to increase digital mix, which grew 130 basis points from the prior quarter to 19% globally. This generated valuable insights, which we use to enhance the customer experience and provide more relevant in-app offers for our customers. Global Digital sales grew nearly 40% year-over-year, and loyalty member growth was up 25% from a year ago. We now have over 46 million reward members enrolled and continue to scale this program. We strengthened our system footprint by opening 113 new restaurants in the fourth quarter. In addition, we delivered on the initiatives we announced last quarter to close underperforming restaurants. Moving on to our full year 2024 results. We delivered full year sales growth driven by breakfast, innovation, and technology, achieving our 14th consecutive year of global same-restaurant sales growth. Additionally, we delivered profit growth and restaurant level margin expansion. Importantly, we also opened 276 new restaurants across the globe. Total system-wide sales reached $14.5 billion, reflecting over 3% growth compared to the prior year. The U.S. business delivered 1.4% same-restaurant sales growth and we maintained or grew dollar and traffic share in the QSR burger category in every quarter. Our international system-wide sales grew 9% and same-restaurant sales grew 2.8%. This overall sales performance drove adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow growth, and we returned over $280 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. For the full year, our breakfast sales grew over 6%, which outpaced the QSR burger category. This was driven by increased awareness and impactful innovation. Our innovation extended beyond the breakfast daypart with a series of new menu items, including our Saucy Nuggs that expanded our chicken offerings. We also featured new limited-time Frosty flavors tailored to each season to provide fresh, exciting experiences that resonated with our customers throughout the year. We invested in our mobile app to improve the customer experience and accelerate growth in our loyalty program. This resulted in full year digital sales growing by nearly 40%. We also advanced our digital journey with the implementation of digital menu boards at over 300 company and franchisee locations. We deployed voice-enabled AI order taking at nearly 100 locations. And we are pleased with the results we are seeing in improving accuracy and driving labor efficiency. Our execution in all of these areas drove a higher average check and provided labor efficiency that led to an 80-basis point improvement to our global company-operated restaurant margin compared to the prior year. We also made great progress on our strategy to expand the Wendy's brand to more customers around the world, opening 276 new restaurants. As planned, we closed underperforming restaurants. This is a headwind to sales growth in 2025, but absolutely the right thing to do to strengthen the Wendy's system as many closures will be replaced by new restaurants in stronger trade areas and where we expect to see double the AUVs of the restaurants that we closed. We are supporting franchisees with incentives to develop higher-performing restaurants that will enhance the customer experience and increase profitability. As expected, we ended the year with flat net unit growth and are well positioned to accelerate unit growth in 2025. In 2024, we established a new Wendy's promise, Fresh Famous food, made right for you. This is a commitment we are making to our customers to build more love for Wendy's. Our team is committed to deliver on the shared goals of always putting the customer first, making every restaurant the star, operating the one best way, and owning the responsibility to grow the Wendy's brand. In 2024, we achieved our results in a year we adopted a new organizational structure and onboarded a new leadership team for the Company. These changes will drive improved accountability and operational excellence long into the future, and our new structure is already yielding positive results. While we are proud of our progress in 2024, we have a lot of work ahead of us. We will deliver on the Wendy's promise by continuing to provide the highest quality food in QSR and increasing operational intensity to deliver an exceptional experience for our customers. These two areas of focus will drive long-term value for the Company, franchisees, and our shareholders. To support our growth initiatives and ensure their success, it's critical that our capital allocation strategy aligns with our objectives. As such, we have made the decision to right size our quarterly dividend payment. Our updated dividend policy provides the flexibility to increase growth investment in 2025 and beyond. This year, we will increase our investment in unit development around the world through both traditional CapEx and by increasing our build-to-suit program. We will also accelerate investments in technology to enhance the customer experience and drive productivity. In addition, our updated capital allocation policy enables us to flex up share repurchases when the market provides attractive opportunities, and we believe an attractive opportunity exists today. As a sign of confidence in our growth plans, we are increasing share repurchases in 2025. And Ken will share more details shortly. We are confident this updated policy enables us to maximize shareholder value over the long term. Now let me share our outlook for 2025. Our plan is built to drive continued sales and adjusted EBITDA growth and accelerate net unit development. We have three strategic initiatives to execute on in 2025. Fresh famous food, delivering an exceptional customer experience, and accelerating global unit development. Our fresh famous food strategy will focus on craveable core items, impactful innovation, and relevant value. This year, we have plans to expand in fast-growing categories, including chicken and beverages. We know customers will continue to look for value throughout 2025, and Wendy's is uniquely positioned to lead with this important customer need. At Wendy's, value starts with quality. Our iconic Biggie Bag is uniquely Wendy's, delivering industry-leading quality at attractive price points. We have plans to further strengthen our value leadership position through continuous innovation and the strategic expansion of our Biggie Bag platform. We will deepen connections with our loyalty members and attract new ones by offering exclusive limited time, unbeatable deals available only through the Wendy's app. Breakfast remains a top priority at Wendy's and will provide a tailwind to our growth. In 2025, we will invest in innovation to drive continued momentum around this daypart. Breakfast will continue to receive a higher share of total advertising dollars compared to its percentage of sales. We expect the next stage of growth in breakfast to be driven by product innovation, which we will share more about later this year. You will also see us continue to leverage strategic partnerships and promotions that inspire customer passion points and attract new audiences. An example is our partnership with the Girl Scouts of the U.S.A. on a new limited time Thin Mints Frosty. This is another example of how we can delight customers with core offerings by bringing together our innovation, marketing, and outstanding execution capabilities. As part of our commitment to deliver a perfect every time customer experience, we are increasing operational intensity across every restaurant. This includes a framework of operating the one best way with clear standards, consistency, and accountability. We are investing in field resources to provide enhanced support for franchisees, their teams, and their restaurants. These initiatives will provide an exceptional experience for our customer and drive restaurant level margins. We are accelerating the implementation of digital menu boards, AI voice-enabled ordering, and digital kiosks in 2025 across company and franchisee restaurants. This technology simplifies ordering and frees up crew members to focus on quality and accuracy. Now let's talk about new unit growth. Based on new builds underway and franchisee commitments to add additional restaurants this year, we are confident in our goal for net unit growth of 2% to 3% in 2025. At the midpoint of the range, this represents our highest net unit growth rate in over 15 years, and I'm excited to share some recent news. In Australia, Flynn Restaurant Group opened the first Wendy's earlier this year and it's off to an amazing start. In closing, we have a clear vision for Wendy's to reach the full potential of this great brand. You will see our resources allocated to drive long-term growth and our plans executed with a heightened operational intensity. I have confidence in our franchisees and the team we have assembled to lead this growth. I look forward to sharing more details about our plans for 2025 and beyond at our Investor Day on March 6. I want to thank our Wendy's employees, our partners at QSCC, and our franchisees for their outstanding efforts in delivering for our customers every single day. With that, I'll turn it over to Ken.

Thank you, Kirk, and good morning, everyone. I am thrilled to be here with you today as Wendy's Chief Financial Officer. It is an honor to be part of the Wendy's team, and we are committed to acting decisively and driving operational excellence to unlock our full potential. I will cover four topics with you this morning. First, I will share our fourth quarter results followed by details on our updated capital allocation policy. Next, I'll review our 2025 outlook for sales and profit, and I'll finish by discussing our CapEx and cash flow expectations. In the fourth quarter, results were in line with our expectations. Global system-wide sales increased 5.4% on a constant currency basis and reached $3.7 billion, driven by same-restaurant sales growth of 4.1% in the U.S. and 4.9% in our international business. U.S. SRS growth was driven by increases in traffic and average check with growth across all dayparts. U.S. SRS was strongest in October, up over 10% year-over-year, driven by the SpongeBob collaboration. This was the strongest monthly SRS growth since 2021 and demonstrates what we can accomplish when we combine two iconic brands with multigenerational appeal. For the last two months of the quarter, our SRS performed in line with the category. Company-operated restaurant revenue grew 2.7% year-over-year to $232.8 million. Franchise royalty revenue increased $6 million year-over-year to $133.8 million, driven by the increase in systemwide sales. Franchise fees increased $13.7 million to $34.2 million, primarily due to the termination fees from restaurants that closed during the fourth quarter. Our U.S. company restaurant margin was 16.5%, a 300 basis point increase compared to the prior year, driven by a combination of sales leverage from a higher average check and customer count growth and savings from productivity initiatives. G&A expense was $67.2 million, and the Company's investment in breakfast advertising was $7.1 million in the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA increased 8.6% to $137.5 million. Walking through the rest of the income statement, we had $33.2 million of depreciation expense, $4.1 million of cloud computing amortization, $31.1 million of interest expense, and other income of $5.5 million. Our adjusted tax rate for the quarter was 32.4%, which was 1.8% higher than last year, primarily due to a discrete state tax item. This resulted in $50.5 million of adjusted net income. Adjusted earnings per share was $0.25, which was a $0.04 increase over the prior year. Moving on to cash flow and our balance sheet. On a full year basis in 2024, we generated $355.3 million of cash from operations. We invested $94.4 million in capital expenditures, including $53.4 million to accelerate our digital strategy and $24.9 million on the development of new company-owned restaurants, bringing our free cash flow to $279 million. Additionally, we invested $41.2 million in our build-to-suit program which supported the development of over 50 new restaurants, with 23 of them opening in 2024. And as a reminder, build-to-suit cash flows are reflected on their own line in the investing section of our cash flow statement and are currently not part of our free cash flow calculation. Through the end of fiscal year 2024, we repurchased approximately 4.3 million shares and had approximately $235 million remaining on our $500 million share repurchase authorization, which expires in February 2027. We ended the year with an unrestricted cash and cash equivalents balance of $451 million and net debt of approximately $2.3 billion, which equated to a leverage ratio of 4.3x our full year adjusted EBITDA of $544 million. Next, I'd like to share with you our updated capital allocation policy. As Kirk mentioned, in order to maximize long-term shareholder value, we are updating our policy to ensure we have sufficient flexibility to invest in the opportunities we have identified to drive growth. Our first priority continues to be investing in our business. We are increasing CapEx in 2025 to between $100 million and $110 million as we invest in building new restaurants globally and add technology to our existing restaurants, including digital menu boards and kiosks to enhance the customer experience, drive loyalty, and increase efficiency. In addition to our CapEx investments, we plan to invest around $70 million through our build-to-suit program in 2025 to accelerate new restaurant development. Build-to-suit is one of our incentive programs where the Company co-invests in new restaurants with our franchisees in exchange for higher royalty and rent payments, expanding the pool of franchisees to build more restaurants. Our next priority is paying an attractive dividend. This morning, we announced our first quarter dividend payment of $0.25 per share. The Company's new target dividend payout ratio is 50% to 60% of adjusted earnings. Beginning in the second quarter, this equates to a quarterly dividend payment of $0.14 per share. For the full year 2025, we expect to pay out $0.67 per share in dividends. Our third priority is to maintain a strong balance sheet. We have established a target net leverage ratio of 3.5x to 5x adjusted EBITDA. And lastly, we will return excess cash to our shareholders through share repurchases. This morning, we announced our plan to increase share repurchases to up to $200 million in 2025 with the majority of this activity happening in the next few months. We believe that cash belongs to our shareholders and through the combination of dividends and share repurchases, we expect to return up to $325 million of cash to shareholders in 2025, which represents an increase of $40 million compared to 2024. We view the changes to our capital allocation policy and this year's increase in planned share repurchases as a demonstration of the confidence we have in our growth plans for 2025 and beyond, and we look forward to sharing more with you at our Investor Day on March 6. Before diving into our financial outlook for 2025, I'd like to share my approach to guidance. We want to strengthen our credibility with investors. To do that, we will set realistic and achievable targets and then execute our plans with an increased level of intensity to deliver them. Let's turn to our financial outlook. We began planning for 2025 by looking at multiple third-party forecasts for both food away from home and industry traffic. These indicate that consumer spending for food away from home is expected to remain pressured and traffic in the QSR burger category is expected to be flat to down 1% compared to last year. Our 2025 outlook does not include any impact from new tariffs. Based on those forecasts, we anticipate full year 2025 global system-wide sales growth of approximately 2% to 3%, driven by the combination of same-restaurant sales and new unit growth. As a reminder, our system-wide sales growth rate in 2025 is negatively impacted due to the actions we took in the fourth quarter to close underperforming restaurants and strengthen our system. Additionally, we expect global net new unit growth to be between 2% and 3% in 2025. We expect U.S. company-operated restaurant margin of around 16%, plus or minus 50 basis points. Margin performance will be supported by restaurant productivity initiatives and sales growth leverage. We are redeploying company breakfast advertising spend to investments in field operations that will improve the customer experience across all dayparts and drive efficiency in our restaurants. As such, we anticipate G&A to increase to between $285 million and $290 million. In addition to the investments in field resources, we expect higher incentive compensation in 2025, assuming payouts at target levels, compared to the favorability we experienced with incentive compensation in 2024. We will continue to maintain discipline in this area and anticipate G&A to represent approximately 1.9% of 2025 system-wide sales. We expect adjusted EBITDA to increase to between $550 million and $560 million. We anticipate interest expense of approximately $127 million as we plan to refinance $400 million of debt maturing in 2025 and 2026. Taking all these items into account, we expect adjusted EPS to range from $0.98 to $1.02 per share. Free cash flow is expected to be between $275 million and $285 million, driven by earnings growth, partially offset by capital expenditures of $100 million to $110 million. The increase in CapEx is primarily related to investments in new company restaurants and technology, both of which help accelerate sales and earnings growth. In closing, we are proud of our fourth quarter results and the strong foundation we are building for sustainable, profitable growth. In 2025, we are setting realistic and achievable goals and taking decisive action on what we can control including increasing our operational intensity and elevating the customer experience. Throughout the year, we will take advantage of opportunities that strengthen the business and drive long-term success. I'm excited about the road ahead and look forward to sharing more at our upcoming Investor Day. I'll now hand it over to Aaron to share our Q1 Investor Relations calendar.

Thank you, Ken. The Company is hosting an Investor Day at our corporate headquarters in Dublin, Ohio on March 6. If you are an institutional investor and would like to join us in Dublin, please reach out to me. The event will be webcast live and can be accessed through our Investor Relations website. On March 11, we will participate in the Citi Global Consumer and Retail Conference in Miami, followed by the UBS Global Consumer and Retail Conference in New York City on March 12. On March 25, we will be in Chicago for an NDR hosted by Piper Sandler. If you are interested in joining us at any of these events, please contact the respective sell-side analyst or equity sales contact at the host firm. Lastly, we plan to report our first quarter earnings and host a conference call on May 1, 2025. We will now transition to the Q&A part of the call. Due to the high number of covering analysts, please limit yourself to one question only. Operator, please queue up the first question.

Yes, happy to. So proud that we achieved our 14th consecutive year of global SRS growth in 2024 and fully expect to make 2025 the 15th consecutive year. So, in terms of an SRS guide, I would say positive for 2025. In terms of the shape, we do expect SRS to be down year-over-year in the first quarter. So, we've started the year facing some overall industry traffic headwinds exacerbated by significant weather events across the country. The good news is we do expect Q1 to be the trough. We expect our growth rate to improve as we move throughout the year, driven both by improvements in industry traffic and our exciting programming to drive winning in the market.

Thanks, Dennis. Appreciate that. Let me take this question. We have a high level of confidence in our two to three guidance on net unit growth. We have those agreements in place. We can see the close-in build. So, we have a high level of confidence. And this will represent the most restaurants we have built in 15 years or more than 15 years. And well, look, we expect that to continue. We'd also like to walk through our long-term unit growth outlook and exactly where we're going to build those restaurants at our March 6 Investor Day. So, we hope many can attend so that we can walk through our long-term outlook on building more restaurants. Yes. Two really good questions, David. Appreciate that. First, let me just talk a little bit about things that you will see at the Investor Day on the menu. A couple of things that we're looking at that drive continued momentum and I'd say consumer relevance. So, you saw in Q4, we certainly had a lot of momentum. We have in 2025 collaborations that we will share that will, again, tap us into culture that will drive momentum. But we look at the menu in three distinct areas. One, our core portfolio, our core menu. We expect that to grow. We have to invest in that. You'll see innovation off that, pure innovation, things like Saucy Nuggs that we did last year, you'll see us innovate and we'll share those details as well. And then last, value. We have to have a relevant value. We think we have an amazing proposition that's really based in quality on value, especially with our Biggie Bag platform. We think we have the highest quality in the industry as far as value and buy starts with quality at Wendy's. So, we will unpack those three things and share the innovation pipeline. We'll actually, if you're here in person, we'll be handing that innovation out, you can try it. So, come hungry, come ready for Investor Day. Separately, operationally, operational intensity is really important. Our expectation is to deliver a customer experience that is perfect every single time. So, we have wired our organization to deliver just that. We have an organization that is really focused on delivering execution excellence at every single restaurant. And we will align our priorities, our compensation, our metrics all around delivering that great customer experience. So, both things we will talk about in greater detail. Abigail will walk through the new U.S. deal structure and some of those operational scorecards and how we bring that to life and work with franchisees. We'll do all that on March 6, but I appreciate the questions. Thank you for the question. I'll address the first part and then hand it over to Ken to discuss financing. Our capital allocation policy is significant. It begins with maintaining an attractive dividend, which we still have, and it enables us to expedite our growth plan, which is essential. When I refer to our growth plan, I'm considering net unit development, expanding our restaurants, investing in technology, and excelling in the marketplace. You also mentioned that we currently have an appealing stock price, and we intend to leverage that. Essentially, we have the ability to pursue both our long-term growth strategy and increase our stock repurchases. Now, I’ll turn it over to Ken to elaborate on that.

Yes, in terms of our debt activity planned for 2025, we have $50 million maturing in December of this year and around $350 million of WBS securities maturing in September of 2026. We have devised a plan to refinance the total of $400 million in late 2025. We will continue to assess whether it makes sense to adjust that timeline. Overall, I expect our total gross debt to slightly decrease in 2025 and beyond as we amortize the principal of the WBS security, anticipating a reduction of about $20 million to $30 million per year. Additionally, we plan to increase EBITDA to lower our net leverage ratio.

Yes. In Q4, we were very pleased with our performance and gained valuable insights. Reflecting on the entire year of 2024, we outpaced the growth of our category, and we continued that trend in Q4. We learned a lot, especially about optimizing our supply chain and enhancing customer experiences—elements that define Wendy's. As we look ahead to 2025, we'll share more at Investor Day on the fifth. One initiative we’re excited about is our early collaboration with the Girl Scouts of the U.S.A. on the Thin Mints Frosty. This partnership brings an iconic flavor to Wendy's and helps us move forward. We have more plans for 2025 that we will discuss soon, as we believe these efforts are crucial in integrating with culture and ensuring a great experience. We also maintain a strong desire to improve continuously, focusing on enhancing customer experience, execution, and supply chain effectiveness. These factors are essential to us, and we will continue to learn from our experiences. Yes. Thanks for the question, Rahul. I would start by saying, in terms of franchisee profitability in 2024, we're currently collecting that data, and we will share it with you later in the year. We saw good improvements in franchisee profitability in 2023, and if you look at our global restaurant margin as a proxy for those franchisees, we would expect further improvement in 2024. In 2024, we expanded our global restaurant margin by 80 basis points to 15.4%, and at the high end of our range, we'd expect to expand that again in 2025. So, we like what we're seeing from a unit economic perspective. And then we talked a little bit about the actions we took in the fourth quarter to strengthen our system. We also mentioned that the average AUVs of the new restaurants that we will be about double the ones that close. That's another testament to the strength, especially what we're seeing in the new restaurant openings that we have. We'll continue to expand the pool of franchisees that we have. Build-to-suit is an important part of that, where the Company co-invest with the franchisees on the front end, which expands the pool of franchisees that can open Wendy's. And we're happy with the returns that we see there.

Yes, that's right, Kirk. And the only thing I'd add is technology is also a piece of that customer experience. So, we're going to accelerate the rollout of our FreshAI digital menu boards across the system, which improves the customer experience and enables some labor efficiencies in our restaurants.

In terms of system-wide sales growth, I would expect the U.S. to deliver kind of low single-digit system-wide sales growth. We would expect international to deliver high single to low double-digit system-wide sales growth. And again, in terms of the shape, we've kind of benchmarked our plans on the assumption that industry traffic in the U.S. is flat to down 1%, and we expect to perform in line or better than that as we win in the marketplace. Yes. So, embedded in our 2025 guidance is commodity inflation of about 1% and wage rate inflation of about 4%. In terms of commodities, you're right, we think beef will be the biggest driver of that increase year-over-year. We think we'll also see a little bit of pressure from bacon, partially offset by improvements in other areas. So, beef, as you know, we're proud of our fresh never-frozen beef. Domestically sourced here in the U.S. So, it enables us to provide the best quality food in the industry. So that's what's embedded in the guide. In terms of tariffs, right now, we wouldn't expect any significant impact to cost of goods sold as a result of tariffs, but it is something that we're watching closely, working with our partners to make sure if there are incremental headwinds on what we guided to, that we're doing what we can to offset that in other areas of the commodity basket.

That was our last question of the call. Thank you, Kirk and Ken, and thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning. We look forward to speaking with you again at our investor day on March 6. Have a great day.

Thank you all for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines.