Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM)
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Auto-generated speakersGood morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for being here. Welcome to the Wheaton Precious Metals 2025 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results Conference Call. I want to remind everyone that this call is being recorded on Friday, March 13, 2026, at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time. I will now hand it over to Emma Murray, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Thank you, operator. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for participating in today's call. I'm joined today by Randy Smallwood, Wheaton's Chief Executive Officer; Haytham Hodaly, President; Vincent Lau, Chief Financial Officer; Wes Carson, VP Mining Operations; and Neil Burns, VP Corporate Development. For those not currently viewing the webcast, please note that a PDF version of the slide presentation is available on the Presentations page of our website. Some of the comments on today's call may contain forward-looking statements. Please refer to Slide 2 for important cautionary information and disclosures. It should be noted that all figures referred to on today's call are in U.S. dollars. With that, I'll turn the call over to Randy Smallwood.
Thank you, Emma, and good morning, everyone. Thank you all for joining us today as we review Wheaton's fourth quarter and full year results of 2025. Our portfolio of high-quality, long-life assets delivered another outstanding year in 2025, surpassing our production targets and generating record revenue, earnings and operating cash flow. We've realized annual production of 690,000 gold equivalent ounces, exceeding the top end of our production guidance for the year. Our results were supported by strong contributions from cornerstone assets, including Salobo, Antamina and Peñasquito, alongside the continued ramp-up of Blackwater and Goose, further demonstrating the strength of our diversified streaming model. Last month, we also announced our 2026 and long-term guidance, which outlines Wheaton's expected production growth of 50% to 1.2 million gold equivalent ounces by 2030, a remarkable milestone for our company and a first for the broader streaming and royalty industry. With the strength of our performance reinforced by our confidence in future cash flows, we are pleased to announce an 18% increase to our quarterly dividend to $0.195 per share, highlighting our commitment to returning value to shareholders. Many of you know, the coming weeks will also mark an important transition for Wheaton. After 15 years as Chief Executive Officer, I will be stepping into the role of Chair of the Board effective March 31. I have tremendous confidence in the leadership of Haytham Hodaly, who will be assuming the role of CEO next month. Haytham has played an integral role in shaping Wheaton's strategy and growth over this past decade and has been instrumental in many of the key transactions that have helped build our portfolio into what it is today. Wheaton is entering its next chapter from a position of incredible strength with what we believe is an unrivaled portfolio of high-quality assets, a robust pipeline of development projects and a balance sheet that continues to provide the flexibility and capacity to pursue new opportunities. With that, I would like to hand the call over to our next Chief Executive Officer, Haytham, to discuss our capital allocation strategy and some of the key developments across our portfolio.
Thank you, Randy, and good morning, everyone. 2025 was another significant year for Wheaton as we continue to execute on our disciplined capital allocation strategy, focused on acquiring high-quality assets, structuring agreements with strong counterparties and maintaining attractive margins with long-term growth potential. During the year, we strengthened our portfolio with the addition of the Hemlo and Spring Valley gold streams, both of which represent high-quality assets operated by experienced mining partners in low-risk jurisdictions and further enhance the diversification of Wheaton's portfolio. Following year-end, we also announced the largest precious metal streaming transaction ever completed, expanding our exposure to the Antamina mine in partnership with BHP. Although we covered the transaction details on the announcement conference call last month, I'll briefly reiterate some of the key strategic rationales. Quality silver production is becoming increasingly difficult to source, while demand has continued to rise for both critical and industrial uses and for silver's safe haven qualities in today's geopolitical setting. Expanding our stream on Antamina strengthens Wheaton's position as one of the largest silver producers globally. Structurally, the stream features highly attractive terms, including a production percentage drop-down limited to one-third after 100 million silver ounces are received, no buyback clause and full exposure to commodity prices, consistent with our standard approach to streaming agreements. Already a major contributor to Wheaton's portfolio, Antamina is expected to provide approximately 18% of our total production by 2030, following the doubling of our exposure, solidifying its position as our second largest asset. This is complemented by six additional assets expected to come online over the next five years, all of which have received their key permits, are fully funded and are either nearing or already well into construction. Antamina sits on an extensive land package that hosts multiple large-scale skarn and porphyry targets with claims covering more than 1,000 square kilometers. The map on the left provides some visual context for the scale of the land package relative to the size of the existing Antamina pit, all of which is covered by Wheaton's area of interest. Antamina has a large annual exploration program, and to date, drilling has continued to upgrade inferred resources and further define potential at depth below the current resource pit. Since Wheaton's first stream on Antamina back in 2015, over 95% of silver reserves have been replaced through resource conversion and exploration success, a testament to the asset's demonstrated ability to extend mine life through ongoing reserve growth. Overall, this transaction adds meaningful and immediate production from one of the world's premier lowest-cost mining assets, and we strongly believe that Antamina is an asset that will be operating for decades to come. As I prepare to step into the role of Chief Executive Officer, I am confident in the strong foundation we have built, and I'm excited to support the next generation of mine builders in this unprecedented environment for gold and silver. Interest in stream financing remains strong across a wide range of high-quality opportunities, and we remain focused on delivering sustainable value for all stakeholders while upholding the principles that have made Wheaton a leader in the streaming industry. I am deeply grateful to Randy for his guidance and mentorship and to the Board for their confidence in me, and I am truly honored to lead the company into its next phase of unmatched growth within the sector. With that, I will now hand the call over to Wes Carson to provide a more detailed review of our operating results and guidance.
Thanks, Haytham. Good morning, everyone. Overall production in the fourth quarter was 205,000 GEOs, an 8% year-over-year increase primarily driven by stronger production from Salobo and Antamina, coupled with the commencement of production at Aljustrel and Blackwater. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Salobo produced 89,000 ounces of attributable gold, representing a quarterly record and an increase of 5% compared to the prior year, driven by higher throughput and recoveries. As noted in their public disclosure, Vale continues to advance a series of growth-focused initiatives to enhance efficiency and support medium- to long-term production growth across the Salobo complex. Antamina produced 1.6 million ounces of attributable silver in the fourth quarter of 2025, a 49% year-over-year increase primarily driven by significantly higher grades and modestly improved throughput and recoveries. As previously announced, Antamina's related production in 2026 is expected to increase significantly, reflecting the addition of the new BHP stream commencing in the second quarter. Constancia produced 700,000 ounces of attributable silver and 15,000 ounces of attributable gold in Q4, a decrease of approximately 25% and 18%, respectively, relative to the prior year, primarily driven by significantly lower gold and silver grades and slightly lower throughput. On February 20, 2026, Hudbay announced that the depletion of the Pampacancha pit was accelerated and completed in late December following an optimized mine plan in the fourth quarter of 2025. Due to strong outperformance across several assets during the year, Wheaton exceeded the upper limit of its annual production guidance in 2025, surpassing the midpoint of the guidance range by approximately 9%. The company anticipates that 2026 GEO production will continue to grow from levels achieved in 2025, driven by expected contributions from newly acquired operating streams at Antamina and Hemlo, along with anticipated start-up of several development projects, including Mineral Park, Fenix, Marmato and Platreef and stable production from Salobo and Peñasquito. Attributable production is forecast to be consistent at Salobo in 2026 with slightly lower grades as per the mine plan, offset by increasing throughput, supported by staged upgrades and optimization across Salobo 1, 2 and 3. At Antamina, attributable production is expected to increase significantly due to the newly added stream. Overall, silver performance is expected to be in line with 2025 with higher throughput, offset by lower grades caused by a higher ratio of copper-only ore versus copper zinc ore mined in 2026. Attributable production at Peñasquito is anticipated to increase in 2026, driven by an increased stockpile process. Attributive production at Constancia is expected to decline in 2026, reflecting the depletion of the Pampacancha pit in late 2025. Wheaton's estimated attributable production in 2026 is forecast to be 400,000 to 430,000 ounces of gold, 27 million to 29 million ounces of silver and 19,000 to 21,000 ounces GEOs of other metals, resulting in total production of approximately 860,000 to 940,000 GEOs. Annual production is expected to be weighted to the second half of the year with approximately 45% in the first half and 55% in the second half, driven by mine sequencing at Salobo and Peñasquito and the ramp-up of newly operating assets throughout 2026. Production is currently forecast to grow at a sector-leading rate of approximately 50% over the next 5 years to over 1.2 million GEOs by 2030, driven by expected growth from operating assets, including Salobo and Blackwater, newly acquired operating assets, including BHP production, Antamina and Hemlo and development projects, including Mineral Park, Fenix, Platreef, Koné, Kurmuk, El Domo, Spring Valley, Copper World and Santo Domingo. From 2031 to 2035, attributable production is currently forecast to average approximately 1.2 million GEOs annually, supported by incremental contributions from additional predevelopment assets. That concludes the operations overview. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Vince.
Thank you. As outlined by Wes, production in the fourth quarter totaled 205,000 GEOs, representing a quarterly record and an 8% increase year-over-year. Sales volumes totaled over 190,000 GEOs, representing a 35% increase year-over-year, with the increase reflecting a drawdown of PBND coupled with higher production. Strong commodity prices, combined with our solid production base, resulted in record quarterly revenue of approximately $865 million and gross margin of $664 million, representing increases of 127% and 168%, respectively, compared to the same quarter or same period last year. Of this revenue, 59% was attributable to gold, 39% to silver and the remaining 2% split between palladium and cobalt. The higher margin reflects the leverage provided by fixed per ounce production payments across the majority of Wheaton's operating streams, which accounted for 80% of revenue during the quarter. Notably, year-over-year margin growth exceeded the appreciation in gold prices over the same period, underscoring the effectiveness of Wheaton's business model in generating higher levered cash flows and margins in the quarterly rising precious metals price environment. At December 31, 2025, the PBND balance totaled approximately 155,000 GEOs, representing roughly 2.5 months of payable production, which is on the lower end of our expected range of 2.5 to 3.5 months. As is typical following a PBND drawdown, and further impacted by seasonal shipping factors early in the year, PBND balances are expected to rebuild in the first quarter of 2026. As in prior periods, PBND levels largely reflect normal timing differences between mine production and concentrate deliveries. These ounces are expected to be delivered in the early part of 2026. In the fourth quarter, strong operating results and commodity prices drove record revenue, earnings and cash flow. Net earnings increased by 533% year-over-year to $558 million, while adjusted net earnings increased by 179% to $555 million. Operating cash flow increased to $746 million, a 134% increase in the fourth quarter of 2024. For the full year of 2025, revenue totaled approximately $2.3 billion, representing an 80% increase compared to 2024, driven by higher realized commodity prices together with strong production and sales volumes. Approximately 99% of revenue was derived from precious metals, including 62% from gold and 36% from silver. Gross margin for the year totaled approximately $1.7 billion, an increase over the prior year of 108%, reflecting strong operating performance across our portfolio, coupled with higher commodity prices. Wheaton continued to generate strong cash flow in the fourth quarter with operating cash flow totaling approximately $746 million. During the quarter, the company made total upfront cash payments of approximately $646 million, including the $300 million upfront payment for the Hemlo gold stream, which closed during the quarter and began contributing production immediately. In addition, the company paid dividends totaling approximately $75 million to shareholders during the quarter. As Randy mentioned earlier, the Board has declared its first quarterly dividend of 2026 at $0.195 per share, representing an 18% increase compared to the prior year. After declaring record levels of dividends in 2025, Wheaton has now returned $2.6 billion in dividends to shareholders since inception, representing over 70% of the total equity ever raised by the company. We remain committed to a progressive dividend policy. And since introducing this policy 3 years ago, we have increased the dividend every year and at an increasing rate, reflecting the growing cash flow profile of the company. Overall, cash and cash equivalents amounted to approximately $1.2 billion at December 31, 2025. Subsequent to the quarter, we announced the Antamina silver stream with BHP for an upfront payment of $4.3 billion, which we expect to fund through a combination of existing liquidity and new financing on or around April 1, 2026. Funding sources are expected to include the $1.2 billion of cash on hand at year-end, approximately $400 million of incremental free cash flows currently expected to be generated prior to closing, and $300 million from the recently completed monetization of non-core equity investments. The remaining balance is expected to be funded through a $1.5 billion term loan and an anticipated $900 million draw on Wheaton's existing undrawn $2 billion revolving credit facility. The term loan and the revolving credit facility provide flexible non-dilutive financing that may be repaid at any time without penalty. At closing, we currently expect net debt of approximately $2.4 billion, which represents a modest level of leverage for a company of our size and cash flow generation profile. With the strength of our production guidance outlined by Wes, we currently forecast more than $10 billion in operating cash flow to be generated through the end of 2028 at current spot prices. As such, we currently expect to return to a net cash position in approximately 1 year while maintaining strong capacity to fund existing commitments and potential future stream acquisitions. Given our strong cash flow profile, Wheaton believes it is prudent to utilize a portion of our debt capacity to finance a transaction of this scale, allowing our shareholders to maintain maximum exposure to precious metals price upside while preserving balance sheet flexibility. That concludes the financial summary. And with that, I turn the call back over to Randy.
Thank you, Vincent. Clearly, 2025 was another very strong year for Wheaton that underscores the benefits of consistent execution of our strategy. As we reflect on this impressive year, there are several key highlights that stand out. First, our portfolio continued to deliver strong operating performance with production exceeding our annual guidance and generating record revenue, earnings and operating cash flow. Second, we continue to strengthen the quality and diversification of our portfolio through disciplined capital allocation, including the addition of the Hemlo and Spring Valley gold streams, further expanding our exposure into high-quality assets in low-risk jurisdictions. Third, following year-end, we announced the largest precious metal streaming transaction ever completed, doubling our expected production from our best-performing asset, Antamina, in partnership with the largest mining company in the world, BHP. This transaction adds meaningful near-term production while further enhancing Wheaton's long-term growth profile. Fourth, our development pipeline continues to advance with assets such as Blackwater and Goose ramping up alongside several other projects expected to contribute to Wheaton's sector-leading organic growth profile over the coming years to record levels of 1.2 million ounces per year. And finally, with over $3 billion in annual cash flows expected at current commodity prices, we maintain ample capacity to support a meaningful 18% increase to our annual dividend while continuing to pursue accretive opportunities. I would simply summarize this Wheaton release and these Wheaton results as record everything. With that, I would like to open up the call for questions.
Our first question comes from Fahad Tariq from Jefferies.
Can you just remind us over the next year or two years, what the funding commitments are, and whether that's been factored into the comment that Wheaton can get back to a net cash position within 1 year?
Fahad, thanks for the question. We have about $1.5 billion of capital commitments over the next couple of years. And yes, the estimate that we would come back to a net cash position does include that and also paying our dividends at the current new level. So we have a very robust cash flow profile where we can pay this all back in about a year.
Okay, very clear. And then just on corporate development, do you see additional opportunities in the portfolio to go back to assets that you're already familiar with and maybe increase the exposure the way you did with Antamina or...
We always look for that opportunity. And as you know, the majority of our deals that have been done in the last few years have been done with existing partners. So we're always in communication with our existing partners to understand what their funding needs, and of course, suggest further streaming from their high-quality operations.
We always look for that opportunity. As you know, most of our deals in recent years have been made with existing partners. We consistently communicate with them to understand their funding needs and to propose further streaming from their high-quality operations.
Can you hear me, okay?
Yes.
Great. And firstly, Randy, good luck in the future, and I know we'll still see you, but congrats on the move. Yes, three questions from my side. Yes, first thing on Antamina, just back to just a few considerations of the transaction. I mean, I guess BHP's pitch on selling the stream was a little bit along the lines of it's a mature asset, which is a known entity, and therefore, they're happy to part with the potential upside. Where do you see the key source of upside to this asset? Is it purely a mine life extension? Or are there other characteristics that you see upside?
Thank you for the question, Daniel. It's Haytham. I'll answer the question. First of all, I think the way BHP pitched it was they wanted to unlock silver in a time of strong commodity prices. So it's not that they think this is by any means maturing and coming up to its twilight here. This is an asset that's going to go for at least the next 4 to 6 decades based on the replenishment of the reserves that we've seen over the last 10 years as a participant with an existing stream with Glencore. We've had access to a lot of the information. There are certain limitations on tailings capacity and stuff in these expansions. There are various methodologies they're looking at to continue to expand it. But from a resource and reserve perspective, this asset will be a generational asset.
Okay. And then the second question, just touching on the balance sheet and funding commitments, etc. I mean, as you point out, the level of leverage, even at $2.4 billion of net debt is low. How do you see this in your ability to compete in the market for new transactions over the next 12 months? Is there a limit to the kind of size of deal you would be comfortable in taking on while you're in this period of deleveraging? Or are you open for the business just the same?
Thanks for the question. I'll tell you, we're incredibly comfortable with where we are from a cash and debt position right now. We're generating over $3 billion, or roughly, call it, $3 billion in free cash flow over the next 12 months is our expectation. Looking at our existing revolver and cash that we're generating, we would easily be able to fund a transaction in the $1.5 billion to $3 billion range if we need it in the next little while. Outside of that, if we see any $4.3 billion Antamina transactions, yes, we'll probably have to look for other sources of funding. But at this point in time, if you look over our last 7, 8 years, and you look not just at us, but our peers as well, typically, funding in this area has been $1 billion on average a year. So Antamina was definitely, I would say, something that was not an annual repetition. This is something that we'll continue to move forward with looking for larger transactions, but we're more than comfortable with our existing balance sheet and our cash flows going forward to fund any transactions we see in front of us.
Daniel, to add to what Randy mentioned, we've been discussing the idea of multibillion-dollar streams for some time, and there are indeed multibillion-dollar streams on the horizon. However, most of these will involve construction funding for large copper projects. The advantage of this approach is that the funds can be released gradually over the construction period, which significantly reduces the permitting risk compared to upfront royalty purchases. This gradual funding mechanism also provides us with ample capacity. We believe there is plenty of room to engage in multibillion-dollar streams, particularly if they are related to operational assets like Antamina. We have never faced limitations from a capital standpoint. Currently, I would describe our balance sheet as efficient, with no idle cash waiting for investment opportunities. As a player in the precious metals sector, we are focused on metal exposure rather than cash storage. I believe our balance sheet is ideally positioned for our business model, as it aligns with the interests of our shareholders.
I would also add, it's Vince here. If you step back, the leverage that we have is very modest. It's a 0.7x net debt-to-EBITDA level. And you have to remember, as a streaming company, our EBITDA is our cash flow. So it can't be compared to another producer, for example, being able to delever in a year is an extremely powerful cash flow profile that we have.
Very clear. And just one more, if I could, just a couple of modeling questions just around the distribution of cash flows through the year, 2 points. You've given the schedule for capital commitments on streams about $590 million during the year, distribution through the year on that? And also, can you remind me when you would expect to make the tax payment? I think it was $115 million during the year.
Sure. The tax payment is expected to be in the second quarter, June 30 is the timing. In terms of the upfront payments, for Q1, I would say, excluding the Antamina stream, probably in the $250 million range, plus or minus, depending on some timing. And then for the entirety of 2026, again, excluding Antamina, would be about $500 million. And then 2027 is about $500 million to $600 million at this point. Obviously, these things are really dependent on construction schedules. But again, we have plenty of capacity to fund all that.
Our next question comes from Lawson Winder from Bank of America Securities.
Can I ask about the dividend and just thinking about how the dividend relates to gold price. When you were considering today's updated level, how is the downside in gold price factored in? Or put another way, to what gold price on the downside is the dividend level sustainable?
Lawson, our current dividend policy, paying the $0.195 represents just over 10% of our operating cash flows. We have to see a materially lower gold price and silver price before we're constrained at all. I think we ran some math, even if we went down to $3,000 gold, the amount we're paying out is still only kind of in the mid-30s in terms of percentage of operating cash flow. So very sustainable in terms of what we're paying. Our goal is to have a progressive dividend where we deliver this growth back to our shareholders in a consistent manner over time. We're trying to avoid these big hockey stick jumps and deliver it in a more gradual manner. So we have a lot of room to grow our dividend and a lot of room to maneuver if there were any downside in the price.
Lawson, it's Haytham here. A couple of years ago, we started this progressive dividend. We've been paying dividends out that was previously linked to cash flows. We increased it by 3.5% two years ago. Last year was by 6.75% roughly, this year is about 18%. We've got something that should give you a lot of comfort. And what I would say, regardless of what the commodity price does, even if the commodity price has, we still have a lot of comfort. We have 50% growth in cash flows over the next five years. So even if commodity prices went down by 50%, we still have a 50% increase in production. So we don't see that being any kind of concern for us whatsoever. In fact, I think over time, as we continue to generate more cash flows, we would expect to continue to see that dividend increase as well.
Yes, that's very helpful. Regarding the earlier question about the size of the deal, Haytham, you mentioned that a range of $1 billion to $1.5 billion would be sustainable. However, even at those amounts, we are looking at net leverage ratios of below 2x. Theoretically, what level of net leverage would you be comfortable with to pursue another significant deal?
Thanks, Lawson. We don't ever want to introduce credit risk into our company. What we provide is safe, high-quality exposure to precious metals. So 1.5 to 2x leverage is kind of what we are comfortable with at this point. Even with that, we're talking about an addition of almost $2 billion of capacity from a debt perspective. And we currently just don't see a deal where all that needs to be paid immediately. A lot of this is, as Randy said, drip-fed over a long period of time. And again, we're replenishing our coffers rapidly. We're generating $10 billion of cash flow over the next three years. So plenty of capacity to continue to pursue growth.
And I'd just add, Lawson, we would never let that balance sheet limit us in terms of a new opportunity. We never have. I mean, I pride ourselves on not issuing new equity, but there's always that if you had the right opportunity to go down that path. But we just don't see the need for that, and we don't want to dilute our existing shareholders. They are the ones that we work for. And so our approach is to maximize the leverage side if we have to. And then there's other sources. So it would never limit our ability to grow. It's just a matter of our preference to use debt because we find it's the best way to deliver premium returns to our shareholders. And it's worked very well for us. The last time we issued any significant equity financing was I think a decade ago, 10 years ago, and I have very little interest in doing that again. And I know that the use of debt effectively over the last 10 years has dramatically improved the returns for our existing shareholders. And so we're staying with that plan. But we've always got other options in the background. We've never been limited. The limiting factor for Wheaton has always been quality assets, finding quality assets to invest into.
And just as a reminder, the interest rate we're paying on that debt is less than 5% or around 5%, very efficient cost of capital. And the only covenant we have is a test of 0.6 net debt to total cap. So very, very, very flexible in terms of ability to manage that.
All right. That's all extremely helpful commentary guys. I appreciate it. If I could ask one follow-up. There are several new mines that you guys have streams on that are starting up and will be ramping up this year or early next year. So there's Fenix, Kurmuk, Koné are 3 that I'm thinking of in particular, and there's more in '27. Just with these new mines, are there any delivery delay considerations that we should be maybe thinking about factoring in, in terms of like when those mines and the operators will realize production versus when Wheaton will ultimately take delivery?
I'll answer that question. Obviously, when we structure our transactions, we structure them to ensure that if there are any delays, we are kept whole from an IRR perspective. We have mechanisms in place that are called the delay ounces that compensate us for the time value of money in case any of that happens. Now looking at the half a dozen different projects that are in the pipeline, I'd say the majority of them are pretty close to their timelines, we may be a few months off. One of them is actually a few months well ahead of schedule, and it's one of the bigger contributors. So we're excited about the profile here going forward. Keep in mind, every single one of these projects that are in our 5-year profile that give us that 50% growth are funded, are permitted and half of them are already in construction and the other half are starting here shortly. So we're pretty excited about those.
Lawson, I think the other part of your question there had to do with the physical deliveries. These are all assets that produce doré. Doré moves very quickly. So they're not producing concentrates. If we have a mine, a copper mine when it starts up, you're right, there's a pipeline of getting that production to the smelter and you have to get that when a mine starts up, that takes a while to get going. But all the mines that we have in the next while are actually producing doré, which finds itself to a refinery very fast. Nobody likes having that sitting around. So we shouldn't see any issues there. They will all push us as we always give guidance, two to three months of produced but not yet delivered. These assets will all be to the lesser side. We've always found the doré mines are much tighter.
Our next question comes from Tanya Jakusconek from Scotiabank.
I want to congratulate Randy and Haytham on their new positions. I have a simple modeling question. I've noticed that depreciation has increased significantly. With the new Antamina coming in, should we be considering a range of about $90 million to $100 million per quarter as reasonable?
Tanya, the depletion really changes quarter-to-quarter depending on our asset mix in terms of what's delivering. I would say there wasn't a materially different change in our depletion rates by asset from last year. The depletion rate for Antamina going forward will be combined between the legacy Glencore stream with the new BHP stream, that would be roughly around $27 an ounce.
Okay. Okay. And then just making sure I understand correctly as we look through the year, you've got the rebuilding of the PBND you mentioned going through Q1 or the first half of the year. Did I hear that correctly?
That's right. Salobo kind of delivered a big shipment at the end of 2025. That was a little bit unexpected. So we would expect a bit of clawback in Q1. We're sitting at 2.5 months right now. I think we're closer to 3 months by the end of Q1.
It's pretty typical, Tanya. The fourth quarter is always a squeeze as companies try to boost year-end performance. We've learned two things: first, it tightens in the fourth quarter, and second, it tends to rebound in the first quarter. So we can expect an increase then.
Okay. So if we think about it just for the year, we should think about it somewhere in that 2.5 to 3 months, would that be fair?
Yes, I believe it's around 3 months. As I mentioned earlier, increased doré production tightens the timeline, while concentrate production moves in the opposite direction. The concentrates from Antamina will lean us towards the 3-month mark. Generally, we've indicated a typical guidance of 3 months. Additionally, I want to emphasize that when we launch new projects, it takes a bit longer to establish the processes and flow streams, as the pipeline is fully engaged. Therefore, I would consider 3 months to be a reasonable target.
Okay. That's all my modeling questions. Maybe just coming back to the transaction market. Obviously, a great deal with BHP. And so maybe Randy or Haytham, can you talk about now that you have a relationship with BHP, are there opportunities to do other deals with them on some of their portfolio? The Koné district, obviously, is one that needs to be built, and there's a lot of capital there, but maybe also within their operating portfolio.
I hope there are opportunities to collaborate with all of our current partners, and BHP is our newest addition. You're right; there are many large-scale porphyry projects that are likely to start construction in the next 3 to 5 years. We are continually in touch with all our existing partners, including BHP, to explore ways to assist them in funding those capital projects.
Okay. And excluding these big deals that are over $1 billion, and there are a few out there, what else would you be seeing in sort of the smaller category? Have those increased at all? Or has everything shifted to these bigger deals?
Maybe I'll take that one, Tanya, it's Neil here. As Randy mentioned earlier, our opportunities pipeline is extremely robust, continuing off the strength that we saw in 2025. In fact, keeping the lawyers very busy right now signing NDAs with lots of interesting opportunities that came out of BMO and PDAC. Size-wise, we are a majority in the $200 million to $300 million range. But there are a few that are in the $0.5 billion to $1 billion range as well.
Okay. And in our last conference call, I think, Randy had mentioned there was a big shift to silver. You're seeing a lot more silver. Has that shifted at all? Or is it still silver or is gold back in the game?
I think a lot more silver was probably in reference to Antamina, which is now, Tanya, I think I would say the majority of new opportunities we're looking at is primarily gold. It's one of the reasons I like silver, it's really tough to find.
Our last question comes from Richard Hatch from Berenberg.
Congratulations to the team on achieving record results. I have a few questions. My first question is about where we are in the cycle. I completely agree that we are likely to see more funding and development of large porphyry copper deposits. However, it seems to me that we may be a couple of years away from seeing these come to market and get funded. Do you share this perspective, or do you see the situation differently? That’s my first question.
Sure. That's true for sure. There are a number of big projects out there, and those do take a while to get permitted, obviously, and have massive CapEx. So I agree with you there that they will take a few years to come about.
Richard, referencing a point that Randy made earlier, much of that funding is designated for construction and is allocated throughout the overall construction timeline. Therefore, I anticipate that over the next three years, as Vincent mentioned, we will generate close to $10 billion annually, totaling around $10 billion in free cash flow. We will have considerable excess cash that we will aim to invest in such projects.
Yes, makes sense. Good stuff, please do. And then just a few final questions. Just on the Koné payments. When should we be thinking about that last $156 million going out the door?
The Koné payments will probably be sometime in 2026. We only have one left of $156 million, so either Q1 or Q2.
I was curious about the Santa Domingo $30 million refund. What's going on there? Could you provide some details about that?
So Santa Domingo, obviously, we put up some capital when we first entered into that transaction. And because the project hasn't come online, we've given our partner an opportunity to repay that $30 million and defer making any additional interest payments from this point forward. That's what it was.
Okay. And then my last two. Firstly, just to clarify, you said that Antamina will be slightly lower year-on-year. Is that the right way to think about it?
Yes, that's correct.
Okay. Regarding your accounts receivable, they've increased to over $40 million. Is that expected to decrease soon, or should we anticipate it staying at that level? I'm considering working capital and how to approach it.
Yes, we probably expect that to come down a bit. It's a mark-to-market thing on our concentrate sales, so a pretty anomalous item, but it should normalize over time.
Congrats on a great quarter and keep going.
Thanks, Richard. And thank you, everyone who joined us today. Today marks my final quarterly conference call as a CEO, and I'm deeply grateful to close this chapter on such a high note, capping our best year on record with the largest transaction in the history of streaming our royalties. As I transition into the role of Chair of the Board, I could not be prouder of the company we have built together, our people, our culture and the value that we have created for all of our stakeholders. Wheaton is entering its next phase of growth from a position of exceptional strength, and I have complete confidence in Haytham's leadership and the broader management team as they continue to build on this strong momentum. I would like to thank our employees, our mining partners, our shareholders and the communities where we operate for their unwavering support over the years. Serving our employees, our shareholders and, in fact, all of our stakeholders as Wheaton's Chief Executive Officer has been the greatest privilege of my professional career. As I sign off, I do so with great pride, gratitude and immense optimism, if not excitement for Wheaton's future, and I thank all of you for joining me on this incredible journey. Thank you.
This concludes this conference call for today. Thank you for participating. Please disconnect your lines.