PostNL Q4 & FY 2025 Results
23 February 2026
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PostNL Q4 & FY 2025 Results
23 February 2026
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Inge Laudy - Manager Investor Relations:
Thank you, operator. And welcome to you all in this in today's conference call. We have
published our Q4 and full year 2025 results and the annual report earlier this morning and
explain the set of results to you in this analyst call. With me in the room are Pim Berendsen,
our CEO, and Linde Jansen, our CFO. After their presentation, Pim and Linde will take your
questions.
Pim Berendsen - CEO PostNL: Thank you, Inge, and good morning to you all. I would like to
start with a summary of the new strategy that we have presented to you on our Capital Markets
Day last September.
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At the top of page 5 you see our purpose ‘Connected to deliver what drives us all forward.’
That is what holds everything together.
Just below the purpose, you see our strategic intent. We grow our business, create sustainable
value, lead through innovation and make impact that matters.
Then moving from the cascade one step down again, you see the strategic objectives and
ambitions of the three business segments. For E-commerce, it is all about shifting from volume
to value through a differentiated approach and smarter network utilization. For platforms
capturing international growth with asset-light models, and for Mail, transforming towards a
future-proof postal service.
We will make these changes and those ambitions through ten strategic priorities, ranging from
compliance and workforce to network efficiency and international growth. And this should all
lead to the required outcomes on four goals that we have set being financial KPIs, Net
Promoter score, carbon efficiency and employee engagement. And for 2025 we have reached
the objectives for all four.
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The key takeaways for 2025 are all about progress towards our Breakthrough 2028 that we
shared with you in September, too. So, we are positive to be able to say that our financial and
non-financial targets are achieved. We have reset the organizational structure and made
changes in the teams. We have now reporting segments aligned with the strategy. Of course,
we have secured the refinancing required to bring us to 2028 and we see early tell tales that
the targeted yield measures are contributing to performance. That momentum will further build
into 2026.
Furthermore, crucial progress has been made in the political process towards a future-proof
mail service. Thursday two weeks ago in parliament, the changes have been approved to get
us to a D+2 by 2026 and a D+3 delivery for the universal service obligation by July 2027 at
quality levels that we now deem to be feasible.
So far, there is no solution for the net costs during the transition period up to the point that we
are beyond the D+3 delivery, and that is why we will continue with legal proceedings on net
costs.
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Targeted yield measures have more than offset the organic cost increases in 2025 and overall,
given performance and leverage based on dividend policy, we are able to propose a dividend
per share of four cents per share and to be proposed to the AGM in April.
If we then zoom into the segments and the fourth quarter in particular, we have seen at Parcels
a very well-executed peak period, underpinned by very good NPS scores, both on the
consumer and on the sending customer side. Revenues up by 3.2% at flat volume
development, with a positive price/mix impact, and we see that the propositions that we are
looking for in contract renewals are progressing as we have planned. In other words,
differentiating commercial approach is helping us to create better value over volume, and that
is obviously what we seek. We have said that it will take some time to materialize fully, but we
are on the trajectory of the path that we sketched for you when we communicated our Capital
Markets Day objectives.
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If we then look at Mail in the Netherlands in the fourth quarter, we saw some exceptional
volume in the last part of the year, driven by pension communication as part of the pension
transition in the Netherlands and some special safety kit communication from the NCTV. And
that has led to a very robust December performance that together with a very successful
Christmas card campaign, offset the year-to-date November negative result of close to EUR
30 million – EUR 35 million to a slight positive number of EUR 2 million at full year 2025.
Of course, the underlying trend of volume decline and organic cost increases is continuing. We
have achieved the cost savings that we expected to achieve due to adjustments in the business
model. The business mail has already moved to a delivery window within two days, and that
helped us save costs. There are no further options for future cost savings within the current
regulatory framework, and that is why it is so important that we are now allowed to go to within
two and later on within three days delivery for the universal service against reasonable quality
levels later this year.
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I will hand it over to Linde now. She will take you through the more detailed financial
performance of each segment.
Linde Jansen - CFO PostNL: Thank you, Pim.
As mentioned already by Pim, The fourth quarter was a good quarter with our revenues up to
EUR 973 million and a normalised EBIT of EUR 79 million, which is 27% up compared to the
quarter last year. This means that we have delivered on our FY 2025 outlook for normalised
EBIT. EUR 53 million, exactly in line with 2024. Free cash flow came in at minus EUR 25
million, also midpoint of our outlook.
Also good to mention is that normalised comprehensive income for the year was EUR 21
million, the base for the determination of the proposed dividend per share. Our adjusted debt
is up to EUR 501 million. Not on this slide, but it is good to mention that the leverage ratio at
year-end was 1.99. Properly financed, so we can propose to the AGM, the four cents dividends
per share as mentioned.
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We also delivered on the targets for the key non-financial KPIs and made good progress on
further reducing on our environmental footprint. A 15% improvement in carbon efficiency and
the share of emission-free last-mile delivery increased to 33% from 28% in 2024
Looking at NPS, we maintained our average number one position in relevant markets, an
important achievement in a competitive marketplace. Also employee engagement was up
compared to last year.
Let's move to the financial details of parcels in the fourth quarter.
Revenue amounted to EUR 691 million, which is 3.2% above last year, following volume
development, price increases and mix effects.
Overall volumes were flat with a slow start of the quarter, followed by increasing volumes in
the peak period. Market share was slightly down as anticipated following our yield measures.
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With that in mind, it is good to see that the total price/mix impact was positive this quarter. Of
course, this is also visible in the average price per parcel, up by 11 cents, supported by targeted
yield measures and regular price increases. Price increases have been implemented
according to plan and were only slightly offset by negative mix effects.
Furthermore, it is also positive that our cross-border activities continued the trend we have
seen for several quarters, with revenues at Spring up this quarter most strongly in our intraEuropean activities, a promising development as international expansion is one of our strategic
initiatives. In this part of our business, we see a less favourable mix.
When looking at costs, it should not be a surprise that in this quarter we saw significant organic
cost increases, which are mainly labor related. However, we also see EUR 14 million in cost
savings in the fourth quarter, and these were delivered according to plan. To be more specific,
these came from ongoing adaptive measures, for example rationalization of services because
we stopped parcel delivery on Sunday. Next to that, our flexible operational set-up proved our
agility and made us achieve additional efficiency improvements in our network, so in depots,
supply chains and transport, to mitigate the adverse mix effects.
In Spring, planned investments to capture inter-European growth put pressure on the margin.
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This brings us to the Parcels bridge, which the reconciliation of the EBIT from EUR 36 million
in the fourth quarter last year to EUR 41 million this year. As said, volumes were flat, so
revenue growth in the volume-related part in this segment is fully attributable to price and mix.
To be more precise, EUR 15 million from pricing and yield offset by only EUR 4 million due to
a less favourable product and customer mix.
Organic cost increases amounted to EUR 14 million, following wage increases according to
PostNL and sector labor agreements, an indexation for delivery partners.
Other costs were EUR 8 million better, mainly as a result of the combination of cost savings
and additional efficiency improvements in depots, supply chain and transport, partly offset by
higher cost related to investments in reduction of physical workforce and sustainability.
In ‘Other results’, I want to highlight that this is mainly applicable to Spring, where we see
revenue growth being offset by mix effects. Furthermore, we again invested in international
expansion, one of our strategic initiatives of the intra-European activities in Spring. We also
continue to focus on further growth in Belgium.
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Let's move over to the results of our segment Mail in the Netherlands. Revenue amounted to
EUR 406 million, which is EUR 18 million above last year's quarter.
Volume development was almost flat, supported by election mail and other partly nonrecurring, non-24h mail from, for example, the pension funds and government, which Pim just
mentioned. I would also like to mention the successful campaign for our December stamps
and at the same time, the underlying trend of structural volume decline continues.
Also part of revenue is price increases, and these were partly offset by an unfavorable shift in
mix. Obviously, the share of non-24h business within the total of mail volume increased, due
to the extra volumes from government and pension funds. The shift of business mail to D+2
delivery is also part of the explanation.
Looking at costs, labour costs were up following the CLA for PostNL and the mail deliverers.
When looking at illness rates, we see again an improvement compared to previous year. These
cost increases were mitigated by cost savings of EUR 10 million according to plan, coming
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from further adjustments in our current business model, such as the transition of business mail
towards a standard service framework of delivery within two days.
Altogether, this resulted in normalised EBIT of EUR 45 million. The robust December
performance more than offset a deeply negative year-to-date November result. Remember
that the year-to-date Q3 normalised EBIT was minus EUR 43 million, and the last quarter
brought us at a FY result of just EUR 2 million, which equals a margin of 0.2%.
The elements of Mail in the Netherlands I just discussed are reflected in the EBIT bridge on
this slide. As said, almost flat volumes also reflected in flat volume-dependent costs. Price
increase partly offsets the less favorable mix as just explained. Organic cost increases of EUR
10 million were due to wage increases and other inflationary pressures.
And, then we have the cost savings of EUR 10 million and a bit lower labor costs related to
sick leave. They were more than offset by lower bilateral results, staff-related cost and one-off
costs to prepare for the future mail structure. We will tell a bit more on that in a minute.
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Then over to our free cash flow. Free cash flow was EUR 73 million in the fourth quarter, down
compared to Q4 2025, while normalised EBIT was up. This is mainly explained by working
capital development where, as expected, we see phasing with the previous year. Furthermore,
interest paid is up following the changes in our debt structure.
Thanks to well-executed cash and balance sheet management full year free cash flow came
in in line with our outlook.
This altogether winds up the 2025 financials. I now hand back to Pim for our strategic story
going forward.
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Pim Berendsen - CEO PostNL:
Thank you, Linde.
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By now we are on slide 16 and this slide brings together the strategic objectives of each of our
business segments as well as the enablers that support them.
For E-commerce, The ambition is to shift from volume to value through a differentiated
approach and smart network utilization for platforms to capture international growth through
asset-light models and for Mail to transform towards a future-proof postal service.
Around them are enablers that cut across the businesses. For instance, ESG, where we take
care of our people, our environment and our society, data and tech to simplify and to accelerate
by embracing data and AI, and innovation beyond delivery, where we explore new
opportunities by stretching our core businesses.
Together, this framework connects our ambitions to the actions that will deliver Breakthrough
2028 results.
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If we then look at the E-commerce story, then you will know it is all about moving from volume
to value. And we do that through four levers on our margin engine.
First, we are strengthening our commercial engine. That means a more differentiated customer
approach, tiered propositions, and moving slightly away from next-day only to also best-day
delivery options to smooth flows and to reduce costs. That does not take huge changes, but
just gradual moving a bit of the volume towards best day, helps to create better network
utilization and through leverage, creates material impact on margin.
Secondly, we aim to be distinctive where it matters most, giving consumers control, improving
the critical ‘I receive’ journeys, and deploying digital tools to enhance their experience. That is
also why we are very happy about the fact that Net Promoter Scores on the consumer side
have been increasing, also during the peak period last year.
Thirdly, we stay competitive on cost. Smarter depot operations, better alignment of resources,
and targeted investments in technology will help us to run the network even more efficiently
and will reduce the cost price per item, which strengthens our competitive position as well.
And finally, we take a step-up in steering and teaming active revenue capacity management
in new departments that we have introduced, supported by a strong organizational foundation
for which we have made changes in the beginning of this year, gives us even better control
about customer value, yields and margins.
This is how we build a more balanced, more profitable, more value-enhancing E-commerce
business.
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If we then look at the actions we have planned for 2026, it is really about monetizing capacity
by optimizing a customer and product mix pattern. Contract renewals that have been agreed
bring that better balance between margin and volume already.
Focus on cost control. We plan to take out EUR 40 million – EUR 50 million of costs in the Ecommerce space, partially because of the benefits from implementation of our Out of Home
strategy but also a leaner and more efficient operating model in our first and middle mile
operations, further automation and digitalisation, like robotics and planning optimisation tools,
helped by AI developments, as part of a program that we have launched to reduce the costs
price per item. As said, that will help to strengthen our competitive position even more.
We clearly want to be distinctive where it matters. We have just discussed why that is so
important.
Let’s go to our assumptions for 2026. We assume continuous growth of Dutch household
consumption of around 2% - 2.4%. With an online penetration of 0.5% increase, we still
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assume because of our push for value that we will continue to lose a little bit of market share.
That is why at the end of the day we expect volume growth to be 1% - 3% for 2026.
If we then move over to platforms – Linde already talked about the investments we are making
there, impacting the 2025 results and that will continue the 2026 results – we invest in the
acceleration of international flows and the asset-light models will allow us to expand roots
quickly and capture new customer portfolios without heavy investments.
Secondly, we strengthen our Dutch domestic leadership by keeping export flow and
international volume in PostNL’s network by improving customer stickiness and protecting our
own market.
Thirdly, we build a smarter, leaner network, a shared platform infrastructure, strong partner
models, and automation through APIs drive efficiency and scalability in that platform space.
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In short, these asset models give us the flexibility, the option to scale and to gradually improve
profitability over time on the back on that revenue growth that we seek.
If we then look at the actions for platforms in 2026, we see it is really about empowering that
European sales function. We have invested in expanding that sales function, including the
intelligence tools that it needs. We are growing the network. We have added many different
trade lanes and line haul expansion to the European business and we are gradually filling that
network capacity that will result in an increase in marginality on the platform side of things over
time.
Already quite a while we have had a very strong market position in Hong Kong and China and
we are expanding that base to also other areas within Asia that can also fuel the import flows
to Europe.
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If we then go to the Mail side, we see there have been very relevant developments over the
last couple of weeks. The adjustments of the Universal Service Obligation have been approved
by the House of Representatives two weeks ago, which is a crucial step towards a future-proof
postal service. We go from within two delivery model for the USO per July 2026 to within three
days per July 2027, which is a deviation from the trajectory that we have painted on the Capital
Markets Day, because there D+3 was only expected to be there per 1 January 2028. The
quality requirements have also come down to 90% for D+2 and 92% for within three days
delivery. So far, there is no solution yet for the remaining substantial net costs on universal
service, That is also why we will continue with the legal steps to go after that net cost
compensation, because, as we estimated in the beginning of the year, we expected roughly
EUR 30 million of net costs related to the USO obligations. I think it will be slightly more than
EUR 30 million and also in in 2026 and 2027 we will still be looking at material net cost that
impact the profitability of the company. That does impact on the competitiveness of the group
and limits our ability to invest in innovation, in new propositions, in labour conditions and labour
circumstances. That is why we will continue to push for compensation or to be relieved from
the obligations that drive those net costs.
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What you cannot underestimate is the impact these changes will have on our organisation,
And that is why we are really committed and busy with the preparations of those changes per
July which basically means that on the delivery and preparation side, a lot of the schedules
need to change. All the delivery routes will be redefined, and we are taking those changes step
by step. That also means that we will deliver the letterbox parcels that are required to be
delivered next day through the E-commerce infrastructure. That also impacts Mail’s result in
2026 quite significantly but also impacts the Parcels (note: E-commerce) bridge. Linde will talk
you through those elements a little bit later on. So, yes, great progress on Mail for 2025 but
still a lot to do to make it happen operationally and a lot to continue to discuss with the new
minister of Economic Affairs, as to how we want to organise mail delivery in the Netherlands
going forward, also in relation to the question who should pick up the bill for the net costs
related to the Universal Service Obligation.
Slide 22 basically paints a picture as to why we believe that over time we are able to manage
the mail business within a bandwidth of results, to give you a bit of predictability as to how we
can do this. These lines are, with the exception of 2025, the lines that we have presented also,
at our Capital Markets Day. Later on, you will see that the 2026 expectations for Mail will not
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be as low as the orange line, but it indicates roughly the phasing of those steps over time. The
blue line also includes potential upsides on financial contribution that, of course, so far we have
not taken into account in our outlook. But it is still reinforcing the message that we expect to
be able to manage the Mail business with those changes within this bandwidth of results. Of
course, there are some sensitivities around it that relate to the volume decline, expectations
and the timeliness of the execution of the steps that we plan to make in this roadmap.
Let’s go to our enablers, the first one being ESG. That is clearly not a separate track, but a
foundation for everything we do, taking care of our people, environment and society. Further
reductions of emissions to improve our footprint is high on our agenda. That is also why we
expanded our own fleet of electric vans by 50 % last year and continue to stimulate delivery
partners to switch to electric vans as well. The shared emission-free amount of kilometers was
up and is now at 33%. With that, we also had a positive impact on urban livability.
On the right-hand side you see our efforts to invest in engaged and healthy workforce because
that will also drive employee engagement, will also drive Net Promoter Scores. We have
introduced programs to reduce the absenteeism and invested quite materially in innovation to
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reduce the physical workload in our depots. Of the examples you see there is the
implementation of tilters to reduce manual lifting in the depots, the use of smart electronic tucks
for internal transport of roll cages but also adjusted customer requirements for how they fill
their roll cages before they are dropped off at our depots. So, serious investments are being
undertaken to improve the workplace safety, to unlock cost efficiency, and to create a better
environment for our staff.
Other enablers we can talk about are data tech and innovation beyond delivery, We are
simplifying and accelerating by embracing data and AI, both in our meta channel contact
strategies of our digital and human interactions, but also in our supply chain and commercial
engines, where we do apply AI as much as we can to drive NPS and improve efficiency to
further contribute to the execution of our strategy.
We keep on exploring new opportunities by stretching our core and are investigating the
development of charging hubs for truck transport where we aim to develop charging hubs
initially for our own trucks, but over time also make these hubs accessible for other carriers.
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Then, let's go to the financial paragraph of 2026 and look at the outlook that we have set for
this year. Linde, back to you.
Linde Jansen - CFO PostNL: Thank you, Pim.
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So, then we are on slide 26 and let me start with a recap of our capital allocation. First and
foremost, we will invest in our organic growth, including investments in our network, our Outof-home Ambition and IT capabilities. Next, we will invest in inorganic growth opportunities in
line with our strategic criteria. The focus for this will be on partnerships in our growth areas
rather than acquisitions to limit the size of the required capital. The remaining cash flow should
be sufficient to pay dividends in line with our business performance and dividend policy, and
to optimize our financing structure. For 2025, as said, we will propose a dividend of four cents
per share to the AGM to be held in April. To be clear, this is based on the old dividend policy
that was applicable for book year 2025. The payout ratio is 80% of normalised comprehensive
income. As communicated during the Capital Markets Day in September 2025, as of 2026 we
will slightly adjust this policy. Dividend will be based on normalised profit instead of normalized
comprehensive income and we will no longer have interim dividends. So, the full dividend is to
be paid in one payment in May.
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Slide 27 is in the deck to help you to reconcile the 2025 actuals to the new reporting structure
that is aligned with this new strategy. As explained by by Pim, as of 1 January 2026, we will
report along with the segments E-commerce, Platforms and Mail. In short, in E-commerce, we
will report all parcel activities in, from and to the Netherlands and Belgium, including internal
revenue from Platforms. And a transfer from PostNL Other, being the digital activities. Platform
comprises Spring and MyParcel and other international activities. Mail does not need further
explanation.
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Let's have a look forward to our FY expectations for 2026, which will be the year of inflection
in the execution of our strategy. I will start with sharing our outlook for the main financial KPIs
and will then dive a bit deeper into the drivers and assumed development per segment.
For normalised EBIT, our outlook is between EUR 40 million and EUR 70 million, and we
expect that to translate into a free cash flow of between zero and minus EUR 30 million. That
outlook is based on an expected total revenue growth of between 5% and 7%, and I will come
back to that on the next slide. In 2026 we continue to invest in our strategic focus areas, with
Capex expected to be up to around EUR 125 million, while lease payments will be at the same
level as in 2025.
Organic cost increase remains high. We expect around EUR 140 million cost increases, mainly
labour related, following wage inflation and other inflationary pressure. Price increases will be
more than sufficient to mitigate this. And our focus will continue to be on strong cost control
and further efficiency and improvements, building on our proven efforts to reduce costs.
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Please note that the outlook of 2026 assumes limited impact from changes in treatment of the
minimus thresholds in the EU and the US, or in related customs handling and clearance fee
structures. The scope and timing could evolve during the year and could impact performance.
The scope and timing could evolve during the year and could impact performance.
The graph on the left side indicates the assumed development of normalised EBIT per
segment. But let me explain a bit more on that.
Slide 29 shows the assumptions for the drivers of the expected 5% - 7% revenue growth. At
the segment E-commerce revenue will grow on the back of 1% - 3% volume growth compared
to the number of parcels, as shown in the segment Parcels for the full year 2025, which is EUR
376 million. As targeted yield measures will come into effect gradually, these will also
contribute to revenue growth.
And then in the E-commerce segment, you see the impact of the transfer of letterbox parcels,
of D+1 to the E-commerce network. Pim already touched on this, and on the next slide I will
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show you more background. It is good to keep in mind that this letterbox parcel revenue in Ecommerce is internal revenue, and as such will be eliminated at group level.
Platforms are expected to show double-digit revenue, accelerating its speed of growth
following our strategic initiatives to expand our intra-European growth at Spring and My
Parcels, and growth from the Asian platforms
For Mail, the main drivers are the continuation of the structural decline in volumes between 8%
- 10% assumed for 2026, and price increases.
Altogether, that brings us to the assumed revenue growth of between 5% - 7%.
As said, let me provide a bit more background on the letterbox parcels. So, as of mid-2026,
we will start delivering the letterbox parcels D+1 through our E-commerce network, so no
longer through the Mail network. As Pim explained, this is a necessary step to enable the
transition to D+3 for all mail in 2027 and results in a step-up in cost for 2026 in line with the
roadmap towards a future-proof postal service.
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Apart from the extensive impact on processes and people, it will also bring some financial
consequences for segment reporting. These are summarized on this slide to help you
understand the development in performance.
Let me start with E-commerce. The transfer will bring between 50 million - 60 million items in
the network, so around 30 million in 2026. As shown on the previous slide, this adds revenue
for the E-commerce segment. Again, this is internal revenue. Good to understand that the price
of letterbox parcels is below the current average price per parcel, which is visible in the
price/mix development in the E-commerce performance. Extra volumes, of course, bring extra
volume-dependent costs and for 2026 six limited one-off transition costs. Overall, the impact
from the transfer on normalised EBIT for E-commerce is limited and then expected to become
margin accretive as of 2027.
At Mail you see some additional revenue, as delivery of the letterbox parcels via the Ecommerce network comes with better service and quality. It also brings cost savings as we
can adjust the prices in mail. Around EUR 20 million of the cost savings for 2026 relates to the
transfer.
On the other side, the transfer comes with additional cost as in the end, the infrastructure of
E-commerce is more expensive than the mail structure. Combined this leads for the Mail
segment, an expected net negative impact of around EUR 12 million, fully in line with a
roadmap towards a future-proof postal service.
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Let's move over to the E-commerce bridge. On this slide, you see the main drivers and their
contribution to the assumed step-up in e-commerce performance in 2026. A step-up in revenue
from a 1% - 3% underlying volume growth and the impact from the transfer of letterbox parcels.
For price/mix, I want to emphasize that regular price increases and the targeted yield measures
Are more than offsetting organic cost increases. And yes, in the bridge we will see negative
mix effects, but these are almost fully related to the transfer of letterbox parcels. As explained
on the previous slide, the price for letterbox parcels is below the average price for parcels, and
that is driving the majority of the negative mix effect. Remaining mix effects within and between
channels and countries are expected to be in line with the Q4 2025 performance.
Then, you see indicatively an increase in volume dependent cost as we have more volume
and organic cost increases. We expect to achieve the EUR 40 million to EUR 50 million in cost
savings, investments in our Out-of-Home, sustainability and reduction of physical workload,
And the earlier mentioned one-off costs to enable the transfer of letterbox parcels to Ecommerce.
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With platforms, the bridge clearly shows the impact from the assumed double-digit revenue
growth, predominantly attributable to the expansion of activities, positive pricing, sufficient to
cover organic cost increases, though offset by negative mix effects coming from a less
favorable mix of destination and weight. Again, additional volumes come with additional cost,
and that is also shown in the volume-dependent costs. And of course, specifically in this assetlight segment on the cost side, you see the impact of investments in international expansion,
for example due to a step-up in costs related to sales and marketing and IT. So, really investing
in future growth.
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Then, moving to the last segment, the Mail segment. The impact from organic cost increases
and an assumed 8% - 10% volume decline is mitigated by price increases and a favorable mix
effect and the decline in volume-dependent costs. And then we expect to achieve EUR 30
million - EUR 40 million in cost savings, largely related to the transfer of letterbox parcels to Ecommerce, offset by higher costs as explained and cost increase mainly related to preparations
for the future-proof postal network. Please keep in mind that this bridge represents the full
segment Mail, which is more than the USO. As mentioned by Pim, without any doubt, in 2026
there will be net cost for the USO. In that regard, let me reiterate that we will continue our legal
proceedings.
That being said, Let me hand over back to Pim to close the presentation with the concluding
remarks.
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Pim Berendsen - CEO PostNL: Thank you, Linde. 2026 will be the year in which we expect
to reach the inflection point in the execution of our strategy towards our Breakthrough 2028
ambitions. The outlook of normalised EBIT between EUR 40 million and EUR 70 million and
free cash flow between zero and minus EUR 30 million is in line with the trajectory that we
need to get to the 2028 results.
For E-commerce, we will focus on a continued and disciplined path towards sustainable value
creation. At platforms, we will focus at further investments to capture and to facilitate to
accelerate international growth. In Mail, it will be a very heavy transitional year in which we
need to make the changes for a D+2 USO delivery network and to continue to work on the
future-proof postal network that we need as well.
So, all in all, satisfied with the 2025 results, particularly in the fourth quarter. We are on track
towards our Breakthrough 2028 ambitions and we connected to deliver what drives us all
forward.
So thank you for now, and let's open up for questions.
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(Operator instructions)
•
Michiel Declercq - KBC Securities NV
Hi and thanks for taking my questions. My first question would be on Mail where you reported
very nice results. Could you maybe remind me on the fourth quarter, what the impact was of
the non-recurring elements? If I adjust for that, I would assume that the Mail volumes there
were also quite strong. You mentioned the positive impact from the holiday cards. Is that what
has mainly been driving the strong margin?
And then also looking a bit into 2026, the revenue bridge that you show on slide 29, you
basically expect the full volume to be offset by price increases and mix effect. Can you maybe
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elaborate a bit more on this? The price increases USO have been announced, but maybe you
could dive a bit deeper into these mix effects as well. Is that maybe the absence of the
government and the election mail? So that would be my first question.
Secondly, on Capex you guide for EUR 125 million this year, which is a bit lower than what
you shared during the Capital Markets Day. Is this mainly a timing effect or is this the new run
rate also for 2027? How should we look at this?
Linde Jansen - CFO PostNL: Thanks Michiel, for your questions. Let me start with the first
question on the volume development of Mail in the last quarter. Indeed, the volume in the last
quarter has been positively impacted by those non-recurring volumes from the governmental
side, so, the pension funds which had special communication on changes in pension funds,
but also the emergency kits which were distributed in the last quarter. And then of course, the
election mail. That volume is not recurring because we will not have that every year. And
looking at the campaign for the Christmas stamps, which this year we did together with the
Efteling – a cooperation – was successfully perceived by the consumers. As such, that was
contributing to the positive volume development as well.
You were referring to the revenue bridge specifically for Mail, right?
Michiel Declercq - KBC Securities NV: Yes. That is correct.
Linde Jansen - CFO PostNL: The underlying volume trend, which we actually also had this
year – 8% - 10% – is on the volume side. And on the other side, you will see also that from a
price increases point of view, we will increase our prices also to ensure that we outweigh or
more than outweigh our organic cost increases. And that is contributing to the overall
performance in the revenue side.
Then, on your last question on Capex of EUR 125 million, well, I am not saying whether this is
timing, yes or no. Over time we will expand our Capex to further invest in the growth areas.
For now, we have targeted at EUR 125 million. It is mostly important that we continue our
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trajectory on the growth initiatives, which is obviously Out-of-Home, but also investments in
ESG and in our IT capabilities. And that is with EUR 125 million on trajectory towards our 2028
ambition as well.
Pim Berendsen - CEO PostNL: Let me make some remarks from my side, just to clarify that
point. In the volume development of the fourth quarter, where the total volumes for Mail were
roughly flat you still have double digit volume decline in single items and Christmas cards
compared to last year but then made up by slightly more bulk mail volume than the same
quarter last year, driven by the elements that Linde just explained.
Michiel Declercq - KBC Securities NV: That is clear. Can I ask a follow-up about the margins
in Mail in the fourth quarter? Is it possible to quantify roughly what the EBIT impact was of
these non-recurring items? I know it is low margin, but can you give us some degree of what
the margin impact was from this?
Pim Berendsen - CEO PostNL: Not per line item. You know the year-to-date performance at
the end of Q3 and I have given you a marker where we were at the end of P11, still significantly
down roughly around the EUR 35 million loss, and it turned into a EUR 2 million positive for
the full year. So, then you have the contribution of the combination of the additional volume in
December as well as the contribution of the Christmas card campaign that has in those last
weeks of the year, turned a significant loss into a slightly positive profit for the entire year.
Michiel Declercq - KBC Securities NV: That is clear. Thank you.
•
Frank Claassen - Degroof Petercam
Good morning, two questions, please. First of all, on your growth assumption for the parcels
or E- commerce of the 1% - 3% for 2026. Could you roughly indicate how much you think it will
be under from the domestic side and how much from international? So, will international still
be growing much faster in your assumption? That's my first question.
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Secondly, you are targeting quite a few cost savings in 2026. Do you also expect to see
restructuring charges related to these cost savings? Thank you.
Linde Jansen - CFO PostNL: Thanks Frank. Regarding your first questions on the 1% - 3%,
we cannot comment on the specific division between domestic versus international. What is
important is that this growth is continued and based on our targeted yield measures and
change from volume to value strategy. So, as said, we will continue the pattern in 2025 and
also in 2026 though for international growth we had a different base to grow from.
On the cost-saving side you were referring to potential redundancies. No, this is really a cost
savings program where we want to significantly reduce the cost price per parcel. We do not at
forehand have a predefined or planned layoffs. It is really an integral part to make sure we
steer for the max with the elements we take into commercial initiatives. We also de- risk on the
site on the competitiveness of our cost price per parcel.
Frank Claassen - Degroof Petercam: Thank you very much.
•
Marco Limite - Barclays Capital
Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I have three. The first one is on the recent news
flow we have heard last week on Sandd, where again ACM looks to be against the acquisition.
Can you clarify your view there? What is happening? It feels like quite a few years have passed
now.
My second question is on your slide 31, where you are showing the expected margin evolution
throughout the years until 2028. In 2027, according to your chart, we should expect a big step
up in margins. In my view, the step-up in 2027 looks a bit higher compared to what you showed
at the CMD in September. So, can you just remind us of what is going to drive this fairly big
jump in margins in 2027 in the E-commerce division?
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Then my third question. Can you give a clarification on the letterbox parcels side on slide 30?
You are saying that in 2026 you do not expect any impact on your E-commerce EBIT, but then
in Mail you are talking about minus EUR 12 million. Can you confirm that this is going to be
negative at group level between Mail and E-commerce or am I getting it wrong? You mentioned
50 million – 60 million extra volumes on a full run rate. Can you quantify that also in terms of
revenues, so it is easier for us to model?
Pim Berendsen - CEO PostNL: Thank you, Marco. I will take the first and third question and
leave the second one for Linde to clarify. I think you are referring on point one to the conclusion
of what CBb felt about the acquisition of Sandd. Clearly, our view there is that we have done
that acquisition on the back of a permit that was given. And since that time we have adhered
to the conditions of that permit. So, we really believe there is no legal obligation nor a necessity
at the level of PostNL to mitigate anything here. So that is our position. Of course, we have
seen that ACM plans or intends to start an investigation. We are uncertain about the scope,
the approach or the legal grounds for that investigation. So we will just wait and see it there.
The more general point that we make there is that over the last couple of years, numerous
investigations and research have taken place, also by external parties, on how the mail market
should develop. All of those led to the same conclusion, being that it is a market in structural
decline, and the current set of regulatory constraints are not fit for purpose anymore. So, we
will wait and see, but I do not expect a material outcome. And as said, it is now six or seven
years after the integration of Sandd. That cannot be revoked, although we continue to adhere
to the conditions of the permit. That is my answer to your first question.
There are a couple of elements to your third question. If you talk about 50 million - 60 million
you are talking about a full year number and not a half year number, because we only migrate
those letterbox parcels halfway through the year. And yes, net for the group this is a negative.
Linde said that it will not have a material impact within the E-commerce space, but it will have
an impact of a couple of million negative for 2026 within E-commerce, being a function of the
transition cost, the implementation cost to make this work and will be accretive as of 2027. And
within Mail we indeed expect a net of minus EUR 12 million. So, in excess of the minus EUR
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12 million, you have a couple of million more and that makes it the net consequence of this
change in 2026. And then you could argue: why doing this in the first place with this negative
impact on 2026? That is because it is necessary to be able to make the move towards delivery
within three days to take out the letterbox parcels within the mail network. So it is a fundamental
step that we have to take to be able to make the changes halfway through 2027 and to go to
a D+3 three model.
Linde, can you take the second question?
Linde Jansen - CFO PostNL: Yes. You referred to slide no. 31 and you had a question on the
margin. The 2026 margin development and also towards the 2027 margin development are in
line with what we have said during the Capital Markets Day. Also starting with our 2025 year
we will see a step-up in margin that will further increase to 2027. In that sense, it is not different
from what we explained during the Capital Markets Day. But, as Pim also explained, in the
plans for 2025 and 2026 you will also see investments for instance in international growth. This
step-up is changed of the letterbox parcels. Those elements are all contributing to and ensuring
future growth. That is why you see those effects as expected in 2025 and 2026, not only in Ecommerce but also in Mail. That is on the trajectory towards our ambition of 2028.
Marco Limite - Barclays Capital: Could you help us quantifying the revenues shipped from
Mail into Parcel coming from letterbox parcels?
Linde Jansen - CFO PostNL: No, we cannot give you that specification.
Marco Limite - Barclays Capital: Thank you.
•
Henk Slotboom - the IDEA!
Good morning all. I have three questions equally divided over Mail, E-commerce and Platform.
The first one is easy. Your guidance with regard to mail volumes of minus 8% to minus 10%
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expected drop in volumes in this year seems a little bit conservative in my view. If I look at the
first three quarters of this year, it was minus 6.9%, minus 8.3%, minus 5.0% and then in the
last quarter there were elections, we had the government bill and the emergency package
which is maybe 8 million or so. That is the number of households in the Netherlands. And the
pensions reform is still taking place. So, I expect that you will have extra mailings on pensions
again by the end of this year. As far as the election is concerned, we have municipal elections
in the first quarter. So, there is a bit of a timing difference. What exactly makes you so
conservative when it comes to mail volumes?
Pim Berendsen - CEO PostNL: Henk, do you want to have your questions one by one?
Henk Slotboom - the IDEA!: Let’s have them one by one.
Pim Berendsen - CEO PostNL: That is fine. We have just taken the longer-term view that we
have consistently seen in the market. Those volume expectations are also clearly a function
of the conversations that we have had with our bigger customers, including SDN, de Staat der
Nederlanden, and the renewal of a few bigger customers as well. So, on the back of those
insights, we have set the expectation around that minus 8% - 10% mark. Let's wait and see; it
could be on the conservative side, but it is based on the insights that we had from the
conversations around those bigger senders of mail whilst renegotiating the terms for 2026.
Henk Slotboom - the IDEA!: Thank you. My second question is on Platforms. If I look at the
pro forma division of breakdown you gave at the Capital Markets Day, I see a revenue of EUR
724 million in 2024 with a profit, a normalised EBIT of EUR 19 million. In 2025 we see nice
growth in the revenue line of EUR 786 million but a steep fall in the normalised EBIT. Can you
explain what this is? It is an asset light model. I understand that if you want to grow in this
business, you need to invest upfront. I look at the chart at slide 32 and see that your main goal
in E-commerce is from volume to value. If I look at Platforms, I see volume, but the value part
in terms of price/mix is zero. How can I connect this? Is this the way to get into this market?
Can you shed some light on this?
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Pim Berendsen - CEO PostNL: Of course. Clearly, we have set different strategic objectives
for the business segments. Particularly in 2025 and 2026 you see material investments in the
platform space, in terms of building linehaul capacity that is not fully utilized at day one. It is
expanding our sales capabilities throughout Europe. It is investing in some IT functionalities
that will allow you to be competitive in that asset–light playing field. Those elements together,
also if you were to look at 2026, really are already clarifying around EUR 5 million – EUR
10 million of additional costs in the P&L that over time will turn into a contribution.
The second part is that, as said, if you look at the last quarter of 2025, we did have more
volume than we originally expected in Europe, which caused us to take additional linehaul
carriers in. And we have decided to prioritize customer experience over short-term margins
here because we truly believe it will help our competitive position and will accelerate the
flywheel going forward.
Next to that, this is also the domain where you will see the consequences of tariffs, particularly
also from the US trade line side, also in 2025. And also, the uncertainty about the implications
on what handling fees will do with consumer spending and choices consumers will make in
2026. That in part is an explanation also for the 2026 development. Though Linde has said
that we have taken into limited sensitivities it is still millions and millions of lower profits based
on the assumed scenarios that we have taken as the baseline for the handling fee situation.
So, those three elements explain the temporary step-down in margin profile within platforms.
Henk Slotboom - the IDEA!: Ok, and then my final question that bridges a little bit platforms
with the E-commerce division. We have seen quite a lot of noise from the Chinese. CIRRO is
active on these intercontinental routes from China to for example the EU. For example, the
EU. They have a close cooperation with GoFo, which has become active in the Netherlands.
Earlier last week we saw reports about JD.com, which is becoming active in the last mile as
well and they do it in a slightly different way with thuiswinkel.org guarantees and selling real
products like Apple and that sort of things. How do you look at this developments? It looks as
if the Chinese logistics companies are piggybacking on what we see from the side of the
Chinese platforms, which are obviously coming to Europe. What is your view on that?
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Pim Berendsen - CEO PostNL: As I said before, it was already quite a competitive
marketplace to begin with, and we certainly see those new models and new businesses coming
up. It is not that difficult to sort 100,000 parcels or sort a couple of million. But this is of course
whether you can do this at a convenience level, at a quality level, structurally throughout the
year, so that you can accommodate your clients to facilitate their growth ambitions. Our view
on strategy is exactly the same as prior to those. We need to be best in the customer journeys
that matter most. We need to be best in terms of Net Promoter Score, and we need to stick to
a model where we strive to get value from volume and not volume per se.
We see the right tell tales there. We also see slight indications that other marketplaces are at
least following suit in terms of trying to get value distribution more equally divided within the
chain. That is what we continue to push for. We will follow and monitor these parties closely.
They have different operating models; they have so far not agreed any working conditions or
collective labor agreements. So, the question is also going to be, how will they develop their
business model to make it sustainable going forward? We talk with them, but we stick to the
strategy that I have just explained.
Henk Slotboom - the IDEA!: Is labour a constraint for them? We heard you in the past
mentioning before there was a high churn amongst parcel deliverers and that sort of things, it
is difficult to get enough people there. Could it hypothetically mean an additional push towards
Out-of-Home and, if so, could you benefit from it because you already have 1200 or 1300 of
these locations?
Pim Berendsen - CEO PostNL: Yes and accelerating. So, that is more the general
development there, where we truly believe that a bigger portion of parcels will go to Out-ofHome delivery towards lockers, and still the vast majority will go at home. The labour market
is the labour market in the Netherlands. It stands anyway. Their model is much more focused
on pay per item, where also different parties might have their own view on all regulatory
elements that relate to safe working conditions that apply to all in the Netherlands, so also to
them. So, yes, there are some limitations to their ability to scale this existing model. In the
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meantime, they can make choices against price points that could lead to some volume going
their way. But, as said, we will stick to the plan to create value from volume. And that is also
why we expect a little bit of market share loss in 2026. We are happy with the progress that
we are making on the rollout of our Out-of-Home network. We are accelerating there, not only
in the number of locations, but also on the number of lockers per location. Of course, we truly
believe that that acceleration can help us on both sides to create competitive edge, to create
best possible consumer experiences and will make the network more efficient.
Henk Slotboom - the IDEA!: Thank you!
Operator: This concludes today's question and answer session. I will now hand back for
closing remarks.
Inge Laudy - Manager Investor Relations: Thank you all for joining this call and speak to you
on April 28. Thanks.
End of call
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