Operator: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the PostNL trading update Q1
2026 results call. At this moment, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the
presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions.
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Now I would like to hand over the conference call to Miss Inge Laudy, Manager Investor
Relations.
Inge Laudy - Manager Investor Relations: Thank you, operator, and welcome to you all. We
have published our Q1 2026 trading update this morning. It is the first time that we reach out
to you in this format, and we will explain the highlights of Q1 in this analyst call. With me in the
room is Linde Jansen, our CFO. She will guide you through a short presentation and will then
take your questions. Please go ahead, Linde.
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Linde Jansen - CFO PostNL:
Thank you, Inge. Let's start this first trading update by giving you a short and factual overview
on the first quarter. I will then give more color on relevant developments in a minute.
Revenue came in at EUR 781 million, which is about flat compared to the previous quarter last
year. Although we will not quantify normalised EBIT and free cash flow in the quarters that we
provide a trading update, I can mention that these metrics developed in line with expectations
and followed the usual seasonal pattern.
With that, we confirm the outlook for 2026 as we have shared with you on 23 February 2026
when presenting our full year 2025 results. I would also like to mention here that for Mail, as
of mid-July, we will shift towards a standard delivery framework within two business days, a
major operational shift that requires careful preparations. We are on track to go live on 12 July.
Obviously, there is more to tell on the path to a future-proof postal service, which I will do a bit
later.
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To summarize the first quarter of 2026 for PostNL, I would phrase it as a disciplined execution
of our new strategy while navigating growing geopolitical uncertainty. The current tension and
uncertainty in the Middle East weighs on consumer confidence, domestic consumption and
fuel costs. With regard to fuel, it is good to mention that the direct financial impact of increasing
fuel prices is mitigated by fuel surcharges, as is usual in the transport sector, though the current
geopolitical situation is certainly an explanation for weaker growth of the e-commerce market
this quarter.
At our E-commerce segment, we continue to execute on our volume-to-value strategy. That
entails sharper customer segmentation, differentiated propositions, and disciplined volume
steering. We see that our targeted yield measures gained traction and are expected to build
further momentum during 2026. The execution of the value strategy also means deliberate
contract negotiation with temporary pressure on volumes, an effect that will fade out over time
and is taken into account in our projections.
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At Platforms, the strategic aim is to accelerate international growth via our asset-light models,
Spring and MyParcel with European e-commerce driving volume and revenue growth. For our
Asian e-commerce activities, we apply the value-focused approach as just explained.
As you know, an important pillar of our strategy is our commitment to securing a sustainable
postal service. We are currently preparing for a major operational transition and are on track
to switch to a standard framework for all mail, including USO mail of delivery within two
business days as of mid-July. An important, but intermediate step towards a future-proof postal
service.
To reach a long-term viable postal service, there are more conditions that have to be met. First,
an extension of the delivery framework to within three business days is necessary to allow for
further cost savings potential. Furthermore, clear and timely political decisions to amend the
Postal Act are crucial to avoid further delays. But also compensation for net USO cost in
transitional years is needed.
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In this quarter, legal proceedings regarding compensation for the net USO costs and
withdrawal of current designation were formally initiated. And last but not least, a timely
completion of tender process for government mail under appropriate conditions is really key
for the longer-term perspective of the postal market.
Then, we move to our key reported figures for the first quarter of 2026, summarized in the table
you see on this slide. With volume and revenue shown per segment, it follows the new
segments as presented to you at our capital markets day last September. In the back slides of
this presentation, you will find a reconciliation to help you. Again, this is a high-level summary
and on the next slide, I will guide you to more details at segment level.
The bottom line is revenue for the group in the first quarter of this year amounted to EUR
781 million, which is in line with last year.
Let's move to the segments, starting with E-commerce.
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Overall, we see good progress of the targeted yield measures demonstrated by a 4.1%
increase in the average price per parcel, however, in a more challenging external environment.
Revenue amounted to EUR 451 million – compared to last year EUR 473 million – down 4.5%
with volumes declining 7.1%. If you would look only at the volume-related revenue, the 7.1%
volume decline resulted in a 3.3% decline in revenue instead of the 4.5% I just mentioned.
Let's dive a bit deeper into the key drivers. Domestic volumes were down 5.5%, primarily
reflecting weaker market growth related to lower consumer spending compared with last year.
Market share was slightly down and developed as expected following targeted yield measures.
International volumes, mainly from Asian webshops, were down 13.2%, reflecting the weaker
market growth and temporary pressure related to the deliberate contract negotiations under
PostNL's volume-to-value strategy. The volume decline was partly offset by the positive
price/mix impact of EUR 14 million, predominantly driven by price, evidencing further progress
on our targeted yield measures.
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The yield measures came in according to plans and were supported by a minor favorable shift
in mix. The average price per parcel was up 4.1% compared to Q1,2025.
The step-down that you see in the bucket ‘Other’ is predominantly explained by the sale of PS
Nachtdistributie in Q2 2025, which means that in Q1 2025 it still contained revenue from the
former subsidiary.
Let's move to Platforms. Revenue was up 2.6% to EUR 185 million, with volumes up 1.2%. At
constant currencies, reflecting underlying business performance, revenue increased 5.9%. In
line with our strategy to expand our intra-European business, European volumes were growing
by 9.6%, while volumes from Asia declined double digits, reflecting weaker market growth and
temporary pressure related to the deliberate contract negotiations under PostNL's volume-tovalue strategy. Also, at Platforms, prices increased and were supported by a favorable mix
effect.
Other revenue showed a slight decline.
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The third and last segment is Mail. Revenue rose by 2.1% to EUR 316 million versus EUR
309 million in the same quarter last year, mainly explained by the impact from volume
development and tariff increases. Adjusted for election mail, volume decline was 8%, showing
the continuation of the underlying trend of structurally declining mail volumes.
Overall mail volumes were down 2.8% this quarter, supported by 90.4 million items related to
elections. The impact from the volume decline was more than offset by a positive price/mix
effect. Stamp prices were up 6.9% as of the first of January of this year and 8.3% as per mid2025.
I already told you a lot about the preparations towards the standard mail delivery framework of
D+2 that involves major adjustments in routes and working schedules. A social plan is
applicable, and we have established an implementation organisation to safeguard a disciplined
execution of the change program.
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To wrap up, we confirm our outlook for 2026 as communicated on 23 February.
For normalised EBIT, our outlook is between EUR 40 million and EUR 70 million and we expect
that to translate into a free cash flow of between zero and minus EUR 30 million.
That outlook is based on the assumption of an expected total revenue growth of between 5%
and 7% and in 2026 we continue to invest in our strategic focus areas, with capex expected to
be around EUR 125 million while the lease payments will be at the same level as in 2025.
The expected organic cost increases remain high, around EUR 140 million expected, mainly
labor related and other inflationary pressure, but price increases are expected to be more than
sufficient to mitigate this.
Our focus will continue to be on strong cost control and further efficiency improvements,
building on our proven efforts to reduce costs.
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The graph on the left side indicates the assumed development of normalized EBIT on a
segment level.
Please note that the outlook of 2026 assumes limited impact from changes in the treatment of
the de-minimis thresholds in EU and the US or in related customs handling and clearance fee
structures. The scope and timing could evolve during the year and could impact performance.
We are ready to implement a valid operational solution for customs handling and clearing fees
in the course of the year.
Furthermore, the outlook excludes the risk that prolonged geopolitical uncertainty may
increase inflationary pressure and impact consumer spending.
So, to conclude this presentation, 2026 will be the year to reach the inflection point in the
execution of our strategy. With an outlook for normalised EBIT of between EUR 40 million and
EUR 70 million and free cash flow of between zero and minus EUR 30 million.
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For E-commerce, the focus is on a continued and disciplined path towards sustainable value
creation.
At Platforms, the focus will be at further investments to capture international growth.
At Mail, 2026 will be really a transitional year towards a futures-proof postal network with
impact for people and processes. As of mid-July, we will shift to a delivery framework of D+2,
an important step.
We are on track towards our breakthrough 2028 ambition and are connected to deliver what
drives us all forward.
Thank you.
Inge Laudy - Manager Investor Relations: Thank you, Linde. So time to open up for Q& A
right now.
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•
Michiel Declercq - KBC Securities NV
Hi there, and thanks for taking my questions. Under the new format I understand, of course,
that you do not give numbers anymore on the EBIT in the trading updates. But I was just
wondering, you mentioned that you remain on track with the typical seasonality, of course, in
mind. But if you look at the top line updates, both in E-commerce and Platforms, it looks like
you are trending a bit below the guidance for the full year, so minus 7% E-commerce volumes
versus a guidance of plus 1% - 3% for the full year. At Platforms, you are also trading below
the top line. So I am just trying to understand how the EBIT can be in line, whereas the top line
is clearly lagging a bit. I understand of course the geopolitical situation might play an impact.
Can you give some color on the phasing here, the difference that you have seen between the
January and February months versus March, and then also exiting in the month of April to help
us understand a bit. So that would be my first question.
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Secondly, also we have seen in Belgium that there has been a prolonged strike at one of your
key competitors. Should we expect any positive volumes from that in the second quarter at
your end? And maybe because you are also in negotiations with the unions following the shift
to D+2, how are negotiations going there and how are the suggested changes being perceived
by the unions?
Linde Jansen - CFO PostNL: Thank you, Michiel. Let's start with your first question on the
top-line development versus the statement that normalised EBIT is expected to develop in line
with expectations and follows the usual pattern. Yes, indeed, it is. I can imagine this is a new
set-up of our trading update and the way we present it. But to comment on your question, it is
of course to start with our revenues, that is what we see. We see proof coming from our yield
measures and that is also what you see in that performance as reflected in the press release.
Our revenue impact is significantly better than the impact on the volumes. So that is of course
a driving element. It is not just volumes what you see in revenues, but also yield and mix, which
have an overall impact. And of course, overall, we are very disciplined and continue to be
disciplined on our strong and decent cost savings measures, which are fully on track, and as
such, we can confirm that the normalised EBIT development is in line with our expectations
and the usual seasonal pattern. And maybe lastly, of course, you know that the first quarter is
overall not the biggest contributor to the full year performance. And that altogether brings us
that we can confirm our normalised EBIT development in line with our expectations.
Then on your second question on the geopolitical implications. Well, we cannot detail out on
the exact months of January, February, and March but if you look at for instance the figures
and the stats from CBS you see that domestic consumption of goods in these months is
deteriorating. That is an implication for the weaker market growth, which we also observe from
these external sources. And of course, we do not have that glass ball for the future and that is
why we also monitor the uncertainty. We monitor what is out there and we adapt to whatever
we can control and make sure that we are prepared to the best we know.
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Then your question on Belgium. Well, as you know, the strikes in Belgium only started near
the end of March, so of course only a minor part of this quarter. And secondly, overall Belgium
volumes are rather limited or a small part of our total volumes, though of course we monitor
and closely follow the developments. Of course, the strikes over there are helpful to us.
Then regarding your last question on D+2 with the unions. Overall, we do not have any
discussions on D+2 with the unions, we talk about a new CLA for postal deliverers. We have
clearly been in close contact with them with the transition to D+2 and we have involved them
in all our steps. We have been in very close collaboration with them to take them on board
when the first signs of this transition were at hand. That is also how we came to the social plan
agreement with them, which is of course an important agreement with them to be able to make
these transitions. The preparations are fully on track and, as said, what is very important is that
we are constantly in alignment with the unions and also the people involved to take this
transition. Well, you can imagine this is really changing for approximately 15,000 deliverers the
daily routes and their daily ways to work. So, it is very important that we put the right attention
and effort, but also financial safety for them with the social plan to have that covered up. So I
hope that answered your four questions.
Michiel Declercq - KBC Securities NV: Yes, definitely. Thanks for the help.
Marco Limite - Barclays Capital
Hi, morning. Thanks for taking my question. I have a follow-up question on the parcel volume
growth because clearly, Q1 was a slow start of the year. Now I understand the price/mix was
positive, but you still have a guidance out there of volume growth within 1% - 3%. Are you still
committed to that guidance? And if so, does that mean that we should see volume growth
stepping up to a larger number in Q2 already?
When you mention temporary headwinds to volume growth, what kind of visibility do you have
that these are temporary and therefore, will you be able to gain these volumes back?
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And then a final question on your statement that you are waiting for a tender process for
government mail. Can you just clarify what this standard process means and timing of it? Thank
you.
Linde Jansen - CFO PostNL: Thank you, Marco. On your first question on the volume growth
assumptions let me start by saying that it is good to make a clear distinction between
assumptions and the real outlook. The 1% - 3% volume growth is our assumption next to a few
others. And as said also in my reply to Michiel, overall when looking at revenue development
there are many drivers to revenue development. And of course, we cannot look into the future
and determine how market growth will develop, but overall, we see that with the fact that we
have such a disciplined execution of our volume-to-value strategy – and that we see the proof
points thereof – we are confident in our strategy and also confirm the outlook which we provide.
And that is also why we confirmed that today in our press release.
Your second question was regarding the temporary negotiations. These are very careful
contract negotiations with several customers. We are confident and consider this temporary
because we are in the middle of those negotiations. We believe in our strategy, as such, and
also in the way that we deliver and continue to deliver strong NPS, which also for these parties
is a very valid element. As such, given where we are, we believe that we will bring that to the
end and that this is part of the game we are all playing. Of course, I cannot comment now
because we do not have fixed conclusions and dates, and they all have different start and end
dates, but that is relating to those temporary pressures. As said, the temporary pressure is not
just the only one driving the volume decline. As just also mentioned the weaker market growth,
the general market conditions, are also playing part here.
And then the last question was on the tender process. Let me give some color on how that
normally works. The tender has been set out. There was already an earlier tender set out by
the government, though that tender was cancelled eventually or not called official and as such
had to be renewed. The current tender is out there to start for the 1 July 2027. Referring to
‘under appropriate conditions’ is the fact that in the former tender one of the elements which
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was contradicting in the tender, was related to the service quality levels. So in the former tender
you still had the old quality levels or old service levels of 95%, while we are now moving to
service level requirements of 90% when we transition to D+2. So, they were not communicating
with each other. If you have a tender for 95% but our network is set up for 90%, we cannot
help it. But we expect to have the new tender finalized in the coming months and then we aim
to have it ready by 1 January 2027. It does of course not just depend on us but it is really the
government that controls it. We really urge for that that timely completion.
Marco Limite - Barclays Capital: Thank you. I have a quick follow-up question. On your
contract negotiations, especially with international audience you are basically trying to push
through higher prices. These clients are generally very price-sensitive. Can you give just some
color on why you think this international clients will be willing to accept higher prices and not
let's say, go with a competitor? I guess at the moment, if they are not using PostNL, volumes
are dropping. They are using someone else. So how do you win them back with higher prices
as well? Thank you.
Linde Jansen - CFO PostNL: Let me start by saying that yield measures are not just price
increases. Yield measures also contain measures in the area of efficiency and equal flow
agreements. So, it is not just pricing, but a combination of pricing and the efficiency elements
I just mentioned. And in addition to that, what is important is also the factor of quality. We are
strong in our NPS, and that is also well noted by these types of clients. It is a combination of
those factors which makes us move and have the negotiation discussions with them.
Marco Limite - Barclays Capital: Thank you.
•
Marc Zwartsenburg - ING
Yes, good morning and thank you for taking my questions. A follow-up on the temporariness
of the impact of the negotiations. Can you give us a bit of a timeline when you think these
contracts are renewed or renegotiated, because if you say you are halfway we will also see
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the impact in Q2 and maybe even a bit worse. How should I look at the volume development
going into Q2 from this temporary weakness?
Linde Jansen - CFO PostNL: Thanks Marc for your question. On that temporariness of those
negotiations, I cannot really give fixed dates or conclusion dates. It is of course a combination
of more clients and they have different dates and also different negotiation paths. I cannot give
you that specific answer as such.
Marc Zwartsenburg - ING: But how can you then guide for your full year on volumes and the
outcome of yield plus volume? Because that is a bit what you tried to say on Marco’s question.
Maybe it is a combination of both. But how do you know what the impact will be?
Linde Jansen - CFO PostNL: As you say, it is a combination of both. As said, it is not just one
client or one customer where this is at hand; it is a combination of many and of course, it is a
balance of when a few of them are close to finalization and others to start. So that mix is
obviously what we take into account into our forward-looking statement, and that is what we
confirm in our outlook as still applicable.
Marc Zwartsenburg - ING: And if you then look at your volume decline of minus 7.1% and the
deterioration of consumer spending data in Q1 that you mentioned, how should I look at that
trend? We now also have the full impact from energy prices on consumer spending, so things
might get worse. Was that starting January with a small minus and ending with a double-digit
decline now in April? You gave that outlook somewhere at the end of February, so you basically
did not see a minus 7% already in January to give such an outlook. So, can you give me a bit
of feel how that works and how you see that trend going into Q2?
Linde Jansen - CFO PostNL: Indeed, there is just one month because we provided the
outlook at the end of February. But you also have several assumptions underlying that. And
secondly, with that geopolitical uncertainty, we also do not know how that will develop. And
that is also why we explicitly refer to that as a comment to our outlook. Last but not least, of
course, it is not for nothing that we always include the range in our outlook. And that is
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connecting to that because we do not know precisely how things work out. I wish it were true
we could determine it like that. But January would be too soon to draw a conclusion for the
rest of the year. It is not something static as such.
Marc Zwartsenburg - ING: Just looking at actuals over a monthly basis, and you have now
almost four months in the bag, could you give us a bit more color on what the trend is looking
like? Is it rather stable or is there something starting high and now at almost double-digit
decline? Any color on that gives us a bit more feel on how we should model it.
Linde Jansen - CFO PostNL: Of course P4 is not locked so I cannot comment on that.The
only thing I can confirm is the fact that we confirm our outlook and also that we stick to that.
So, more color on that I cannot give to you.
Marc Zwartsenburg - ING: If the volumes are a bit behind, then there must be something
more positive in your expectations. That is what I am looking for, maybe on the cost side or on
the efficiency side or the yield side or a combination of those.
Linde Jansen - CFO PostNL: But as said, revenues and EBIT developments are not just
driven by volume. Also in the comment to Michiel, I mentioned we are very capable and strong
in our disciplined cost management and efficiency measures. As such that is a combination
together with the yield measures, which are also part of that performance. So it is not just
volume.
Marc Zwartsenburg - ING: That is something I was looking for indeed. Thank you.
Then lastly, with Mail going to D+2 and the negotiations with the unions, will the social plan
have a big impact on the cash flow? Can you give us any feel for that?
Linde Jansen - CFO PostNL: Yes, well indeed there is a social plan but it has limited impact.
Marc Zwartsenburg - ING: And that is already included and anticipated in the outlook?
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Linde Jansen - CFO PostNL: Yes, of course.
Marc Zwartsenburg - ING: Those were my questions. Thank you very much.
•
Henk Slotboom - the IDEA!
Good morning Linde and Inge. I hope you do not mind me challenging you a little bit more on
the decrease in volume we see in international parcels, both in Platforms and in E-commerce.
If I look at what happened in the first quarter, then France has already introduced the two euros
per parcel or per product line, a surcharge on parcels that are not coming from the EU. The
result was that a lot of the traffic was diverted to Liège and to Amsterdam Schiphol Airport.
What I am struggling with is that it shows that the Chinese are very much oriented on price. If
they can avoid two euros they bring their stuff elsewhere. Is that part of the reason Europe has
done so well in the case of Spring? Intra-Europe traffic was up by 9.6%. It has to come from
somewhere, but there appears to be a mismatch with a double-digit decline from Asia. Perhaps
you can shed some light on it. I have some follow-up questions as well, but let's take this one
first.
Linde Jansen - CFO PostNL: Regarding on the France situation yes of course. We also know
that these movements to Schiphol and Liège are happening. However, there are of course
more parties and brokers over there and these ensure it still ends up again in France. As such,
we do not see that movement in the market you are describing.
On your note whether it also impacts the intra-European volumes we think what is driving that
intra-European growth is actually our execution of the strategy. So, we really have invested a
lot in that international expansion and in that intra-European expansion last year and also with
the required investments in marketing and new line hauls. Now, we see traction on those
volumes, which is not necessarily driven by the situation in France you are referring to.
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Henk Slotboom - the IDEA!: In connection with my previous question: you already said that
it is not only about price these negotiations are taking place now with the Asian web shops, it
is also about equal flow. If I refer back to the two euros in France does that not show there is
more opportunity for you in creating more equal flow from the Chinese? I know that in the old
situation you were stuck to certain arrangements, and that did not automatically mean that you
could deliver the Chinese goods on the days that you preferred – on the low days – so is there
more for you to gain in the equal flow element than in the pricing element when it comes to
Asian volumes?
Linde Jansen - CFO PostNL: Equal flow is really where we steer, that applies to our own
network. And here it is specifically not necessarily only our own network. And secondly, where
we have an opportunity, we have a lot of experience with customs et cetera and the way we
have built up that knowledge over the years. And that is also why with all these changes in
handling fees and in de-minimis thresholds for us, it is key to make sure – and we are sure –
that we are ready for the right operational solution to cater for those complex regulations and
that we are ready there to serve our customers as they are used to from us.
Henk Slotboom - the IDEA!: Then two further questions, if I may. One is on MyParcel. It says
MyParcel and other services and then I see a revenue figure. How is MyParcel doing? They
are about to open a franchise in Italy, I understood, but what is the underlying trend there? In
the case of Spring we see clear growth, but how is MyParcel doing?
Linde Jansen - CFO PostNL: They are progressing well, also in their strategy. As we see in
other e-commerce streams also MyParcel faces market developments.
Henk Slotboom - the IDEA!: Then my final question. You already referred to Mail and to what
is necessary to make Mail healthy again. Has there been any progress in the discussions you
have with ACM? ACM announced their intention to do an investigation on the back of
complaints they had. Has there been any progress there? I can imagine that there is still a
lobby going on to Economic Affairs to change things. Are there any developments in that
respect?
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Linde Jansen - CFO PostNL: ACM announced that investigation and the investigation started.
We are cooperating but there are no further developments there. It is too soon to tell.
Henk Slotboom - the IDEA!: And no news with Economic Affairs?
Linde Jansen - CFO PostNL: No, not on the ACM. What we can tell you that this morning at
10:00 the Council of State confirmed to have no objections or comments on D+2 and D+3
change. That was confirmed and published this morning. So, now it is formal.
Henk Slotboom - the IDEA!: That is clear. Thank you very much.
Inge Laudy - Manager Investor Relations: There are no further questions. Thank you for
listening in and thank you for your questions. If you have any more questions, please reach
out. For now, have a nice day!
--End of call
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