PostNL HY2026 Results
3 August 2026
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Analyst Call
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PostNL HY2026 Results
3 August 2026
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Analyst Call
Inge Laudy - Manager Investor Relations: Thank you, operator, and welcome to you
all. We have published our results over the first half of 2026 this morning. With me in
the room are Pim Berendsen, our CEO, and Linde Jansen, our CFO. They will guide
you through a short presentation to explain the results and will then take your
questions. Please go ahead.
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Pim Berendsen - CEO PostNL: Thank you, Inge, and good morning to all of you.
Thanks for joining this half-year results update. I will start by talking you through some
key takeaways and then some strategy slides, and then we will go in more depth into
the financial performance.
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On slide 5, the highlights: resilient performance in challenging markets, revenue
numbers of EUR 1.6 billion, closely and almost in line with last year, slightly improved
normalised EBIT, significantly improved free cash flow, and what is important
strategically, is that we see the volume to value strategy gaining traction that, for
instance, also can be seen in the average price per parcel that is up with 5%. We
consistently see higher growth in European e-commerce activities and obviously
declining volumes from Asian webshops, predominantly also influenced by the
introduction of the custom duties as per July 1st of this year.
A crucial step has been the successful implementation of the shift to standard mail
delivery within two days. We obviously prepared for that change for the last six to nine
months, huge efforts for all the people involved, both in the Mail segment as well in the
E-commerce segment, and that implementation has gone very well indeed.
We have confirmed our outlook, and basically there are two additions to the strategy
or attention points that are noteworthy.
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We have launched an initiative that will bring us EUR 75 million of additional cost
savings, mainly in E-commerce, as an answer to the slightly unfavourable market
circumstances in the E-commerce domain. Those savings are aimed to reduce the
cost price per parcel, which allows us a bit more room on the commercial side of things
to optimise the volume to value strategy in the E-commerce segment.
The second point is that we have completely redefined our Out-of-Home strategy to
strengthen the long-term comparative position on the Out-of-Home domain as well.
On the non-financial KPIs good progress has been made on the share of emissionfree last-mile delivery, from 32% to 39%. We have maintained our average numberone position in relevant markets in terms of NPS, and an improvement on absenteeism
that still needs to come down a bit more, but at least it is trending in the right direction.
All in all, a resilient performance in challenging markets.
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Slide 7 summarizes the key elements of the strategy before we dive into those
segments.
As you know, we have presented this strategy in September in our Capital Markets
day. At the very top, you find our purpose connected to deliver, what drives us all
forward, and that is basically what holds everything together.
Just below our strategic intent, we grow our business, create sustainable value, lead
through innovation, and make impact that matters. That is basically the lens through
which we make our choices.
One step down, we translate this into ambitions for our three business segments. For
E-commerce, it is about shifting from volume to value through a differentiated approach
and smarter network utilization. For Platforms, it is all about capturing international
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growth with asset-light models and for Mail, it is really transforming towards a futureproof mail service.
We make those transitions by ten strategic portfolio priorities through which we
manage the transition that we are looking for, and that leads then to four concrete
objectives on financial KPIs, NPS, carbon efficiency, and employee engagement. That
is basically the north star that guides all our decisions.
If we then go to E-commerce, slide 8, we clearly have been executing on the volumeto-value strategy in intensifying external challenged surroundings. Geopolitical
uncertainty has impacted consumer spending, bringing it a bit down, confidence of
consumers down. That has also ended up with market growth below our earlier
expectations. Furthermore, we see intensifying competition from new market entrants
that quite often are tied or somehow related to the Asian platforms. And of course, there
is a shift in market dynamics, followed by the introduction of the import duty and
handling fees per 1 July 2026, and still a bit to come by 1 November 2026.
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At the same time, in terms of execution on our strategy, we are happy with the progress
we are making. Much more sharper customer segmentation, more differentiated
propositions, and better and more disciplined volume steering have led to better
utilisation of networks and margin improvements there. So those yield measures are
gaining traction, and the cost saving momentum protects profitability, even though we
look at lower volumes than last year and also slightly lower than we anticipated in the
beginning of the year. But we have managed to compensate that by the yield measures
we just discussed.
Important from a comparative position is that we keep our high NPS scores as being
the number one for both receiving and sending e-commerce clients.
As said, we have introduced a programme that will lead to EUR 75 million of additional
cost savings for 2027 and 2028.
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On slide 9, we follow up with clear progress. Monetizing capacity by optimizing
customer mix and product mix. Contract renewals have been secured that bring a
better balance between volume and margin development. Important negotiations,
predominantly also in relation to Asian web shops, have been concluded in the second
quarter, and I think you can see in the half-year results that kind of capacity
management and more operational steering also on Best day and network utilisation
have improved operational efficiency.
The expected cost savings for 2026 are according to plan. We aim to get EUR 40 to
EUR 50 million, and are halfway through the year. And of course we want to maintain
being distinctive where it matters, and that is also why we offer smart delivery
suggestions in check-out and focus on best day delivery as well.
Slide 10 gives more detail of the kind of protective measures that strengthen our
competitive position going forward, and that will be there to support the path towards
our Breakthrough 2028 ambitions. In a market which is significantly challenging and
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competitive positions are intensifying. That is why we have launched the cost savings
program, and I think the prerequisites to be able to do so now we have worked on over
the last year or so, and it will allow us now to further simplify the E-commerce
organisation, to even focus more on operational processes, and to take out costs. A
few examples maybe: artificial intelligence technology allows us now even a better fill
rate of roll cages that, of course, limits the transport capacity that you need. Better
planning and collection also takes out routes. Those are examples of areas where we
can take cost out, next to procurement initiatives around big spend categories like IT,
that will contribute to the EUR 75 million of savings and which will bring the total cost
savings to EUR 170 million to EUR 180 million for this period. In that market space
where it is quite challenging, being able to reduce the cost price per parcel is important
and creates a bit more flexibility in that market to make the right choices in terms of
volume versus value. That is helped by a reduction in the cost price per parcel, and
that is why we have launched this additional EUR 75 million of cost savings initiatives.
On the other end, we have fundamentally revisited and redefined our out-of-home
strategy. It is increasingly an important differentiator in the e-commerce space, and we
really have changed it completely by taking a different view on the role of out of home,
having a different proposition in terms of how the network setup should be, how UX
and CX needs to be, and also will require a step up in the number of parcel lockers to
7,500 by 2031. It is really an integrated platform that seamlessly combines merchant
check-out, digital customer journeys, and high density network to accelerate the outof-home adoption against cost price points that are attractive, and will push some of
the volumes towards that out-of-home network more quickly than with the current
proposition. I think what we have communicated also in the press release is that, given
the magnitude of messages, we will have a deep dive on this new strategy around
October time to give a bit more insight as to what we are aiming for and how the
proposition has been developed going forward.
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If we then move to platforms, as said, Platforms is all about capturing the international
growth through asset-light models. We invest, as you know, in 2026 in improving and
expanding the workforce. That will allow us in different countries to attract more clients.
We have been investing in the IT landscape, and the ease of use for asset-light
platforms is of course crucial, and that gives us competitive edge as well. We have
been expanding the network, predominantly the line haul network, and we have seen
double digit growth of e-commerce volumes in mainland Europe in the first half year.
And of course, we are strengthening our position in Asia beyond our position in China
to further de-risk the business and unlock new markets there. That is what we are
strategically aiming for.
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If you talk about progress in 2026, we are intensifying external challenges. We have
seen shifting market dynamics as Asian web shops redefine their commercial
proposition and processes, following the introduction of the import duty, and we see
them behaving quite differently. If you compare them, that has already in anticipation
of 1 July impacted volume flows and continues to do so quickly after 1 July. We are
adjusting the propositions towards that. Of course, we are investing, like in other areas,
in the elements we just discussed to expand our e-commerce base in Europe. The
performance includes those start-up costs as well as start-up costs in fulfillment
activities, which we also guided at the beginning of the year, will be a negative impact
for 2026.
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Then let's move to Mail. Although, as I just said in the beginning, we are very positive
about the implementation to the D+2 network, it should be clear for all that an urgent
political decision is still necessary because the transition to D+2 is by far not enough
to get to a sustainable, affordable mail delivery in the Netherlands that is also
economically viable. It would take significantly more than this step to get there. That is
why we continue to push for the necessary changes in law to be able to move to a
within three-day delivery network later.
We are still continuing discussions and legal proceedings around net costs. As you
know, the transition up to the point that we have a real, full-functioning, D+3-delivery
model are quite substantial, and we believe it is unfair that the company needs to pay
for those transitional costs because they really relate to the obligation that is put forth
to us in terms of the universal service. We have the 2025 and 2026 submissions
already done, and we are currently preparing the application for a net cost contribution
over 2027, too.
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Without quick and decisive action in the political domain it is a very uncertain period
for our employees, consumers, and customers who use mail. So it is really crucial that,
as quickly as possible after recess, discussions in Parliament will continue to reach a
decision that gets us to an economically viable universal service.
Slide 14 gives a summary of the successful transition to D+2 delivery as of 12 July,
and the implications for the segment performance that we also guided for in the
beginning of the year. It is really been a major transformation, both in terms of network
redesign on the Mail side, but at the same moment in time, the letterbox parcels for
D+1 delivery moved from Mail to the E-commerce network. We have introduced a new
tariff model to accommodate these changes for our delivery partners, and so far we
are happy with the implementation on both sides.
If you talk about the cost savings, those are in the middle and in the beginning of the
year, we said there will be cost savings for half a year on the Mail side. There will also
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be additional costs in relation to the implementation, but more importantly, additional
costs related to the transfer of the letterbox parcels to the E-commerce network. So
the impact in year of this change will be around EUR 12 million negative for Mail. But
of course, it is crucial and a prerequisite to be able to move to a D+3 change later on.
On the E-commerce side, at a full year base we expect 50 to 60 million extra items and
basically around 30 million for half a year, and also within the E-commerce segment, it
will be a negative EBIT impact for the first half of the year, driven by transition costs as
well. Over time that will lead to a margin accretive business model as of 2027.
On that note, I think it is now time to look in more detail at the financial performance in
total and per segment.
Linde, I hand over to you to take us through those elements.
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Linde Jansen - CFO PostNL: Thanks, Pim. Let’s move to slide 16.
Let me start with this slide showing an overview of the key reported figures per
segment. For Q2, it shows volume and revenue, and for the half year we also show
normalized EBIT. Just a note: in the remainder of the presentation, I will focus on the
developments on the first half year.
For total PostNL, so for the group as a whole, we saw, as Pim just mentioned, stable
revenues and a resilient normalised EBIT in challenging markets. But let’s have a look
at how that looks like per segment, starting with E-commerce on the next slide.
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Overall, starting with revenue, we see in e-commerce good progress on our targeted
yield measures. This is demonstrated by a 5% increase in the average price per parcel,
despite the challenging external environment, which Pim also just referred to. The
revenue amounted to EUR 937 million compared to EUR 961 million last year. A
decrease of 2.4% with volumes declining by 6.4%. If you only take the volume-related
revenue, the decline was only minus 1.8%.
Let’s dive a bit deeper into the key drivers for this. Starting with domestic, domestic
volumes declined by 4.2% due to weaker market growth, weaker than expected and a
limited market share loss, which was in line with our expectations following our volumeto-value strategy. It is good to see that the decline in the second quarter was less than
in the first quarter.
If you then look at our international volumes, those declined by 15%, mainly coming
from our Asian web shops. This also reflects weaker market conditions, our volume-tovalue strategy here as well, and the new low-cost entrance being mentioned earlier.
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And, very important, we also see first impacts, especially of the large Asian players, to
prepare for the introduction of the import duty on 1July. The volume decline overall was
partly offset by a positive price/mix impact of EUR 36 million. That follows our further
progress on our strategic yield measures, so sticky price increases. The EUR 36 million
includes EUR 5 million from fuel surcharges. These kicked in the second quarter, and
we are able to pass through the higher fuel prices, though with a small time lag. The
yield measures developed in line with plan and were supported by a very limited,
unfavorable shift in mix. As said, overall the average price per parcel increased by 5%
compared to half year 2025.
In the last column you see the step down in the bucket ‘Other’, and that is
predominantly explained by the sale of PS Nacht Distribution in Q2 last year.
Let’s move on to the normalised EBIT bridge for E-commerce on slide 18. This shows
the reconciliation from EUR 15 million in half year 2025 to EUR 12 million in current
half year. As just explained on the revenue slide, the declining volumes driven by
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weaker market growth, the impact of our volume-to-value strategy, and the first effects
from the introduction of import duty and handling fees, and the positive price/mix effect
that was predominantly driven by price increases and including the EUR 5 million fuel
charges just mentioned. The organic cost increases amounted to EUR 38 million,
including EUR 7 million related to higher fuel costs. In the first half year, a EUR 2 million
negative gap on fuel exists. As said before, the surcharges have a time lag, which is a
common mechanism in the industry for pass-through of higher fuel prices.
Overall, PostNL achieved EUR 24 million in cost saving in the first half year, for
example through a leaner and more efficient operating model in first and middle mile,
and the shift to out-of-home delivery. These cost savings were partly offset by, for
example, higher costs related to sustainability and equipment designed to reduce
physical workload. We expect to overall achieve EUR 40 million to EUR 50 million in
cost savings in 2026 for e-commerce.
Let’s move on to platforms on slide 19 with the revenue bridge. As known, there is
some overlap with the E-commerce story I just explained, as part of the Spring volumes
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are in feed in our e-commerce network. Overall revenue was up 1% to EUR 379 million,
compared to EUR 375 million last half year, with volumes down minus 7.1%. Please
note that at constant currencies, the revenue increased by 2.7% instead of 1%. In line
with our strategy, European e-commerce volumes continued to grow strongly, by 28%
in the first half of the year, and were offset by declining low-margin traditional mail
items, which was predominantly visible in the second quarter due to phasing and the
general declining trend in Mail. Please note that we already transitioned to become an
e-commerce player in the European market, with roughly 75% of revenue in Europe
currently derived from e-commerce.
Looking at volumes, the split is a bit different. Around 40% of volumes is e-commerce.
But in short, the dynamics here are growth in e-commerce and a declining traditional
mail.
Looking at the Asian volumes, as mentioned earlier, declined and reflect the weaker
market conditions. And we see here also the impact from our volume to value strategy
and the preparations that were initiated by the Asian web shops for the introduction of
the import duty on non-EU parcels for 1 July.
Looking at price/mix, we see a very positive delta here. Prices were up in Europe
approximately 4%, and obviously the mix effect is favorable, particularly in Europe,
explained by the strong growth in e-commerce volumes versus the decline in Mail, and
the shift in mix between European and Asian volumes also plays a role.
Other revenue showed a decline, which includes my parcel other services, as for
example fulfilment and some intra-segment eliminations.
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Slide 20 shows the normalised EBIT bridge for platforms, showing the reconciliation
from EUR 3 million in half year 2025 to minus EUR 3 million this half year. The root
cause is mainly related to our strategy to invest in international expansion.
The revenue drivers I just explained, so I will not repeat that, but let’s look at the cost.
The organic costs for platforms increased by EUR 9 million, and that is mainly related
to increasing third-party costs for international transport and distribution. PostNL
continues to invest, as mentioned, in the expansion of its intra-European activities,
MyParcel and other services. That means more marketing efforts, expansion of staff,
and investing in IT, as Pim also earlier on referred to. For our fulfilment activities, we
have opened a centre in Germany this year. So in the bucket ‘Other results’, you also
see the impact of the start-up cost thereof. It is good to mention that the overall net FX
impact on normalised EBIT was zero.
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Moving to the last and third segment, Mail starting with the revenue bridge on slide 21.
Revenue rose by 0.5% to EUR 623 million compared to EUR 620 million last year. This
is mainly explained by the combined impact from volume development and tariff
increases.
The mail volumes were down only 5.3% in the first half year. The main reason for this
limited decline is the elections in the first quarter of 2026 of around 19 million items. If
you adjust for this election mail, volume decline was 7.9%, evidencing the continuation
of the underlying trend of structurally declining mail volumes. The impact from volume
decline was more than offset by a positive price mix effect. Stamp prices were up 6.9%
as of 1 January of this year and 8.3% as of mid 2025. In the bucket ‘Other’, you see
an EUR 8 million decline, and that is amongst others related to international mail.
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Then moving to the bridge, the normalised EBIT bridge for Mail, slide 22. The volume
decline and price/mix effects I just explained. Looking then at the cost, the organic cost
increases of EUR 15 million are mainly due to wage increases and other inflationary
pressures.
And then you see the cost savings of EUR 12 million, of which the majority is related
to adjustments in sorting and delivery processes. We also see that cost for IT, partly
related to the transition to D+2, which we just completed, and transport costs
increased.
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That was about the segments. Let’s now have a look at the free cash flow. I am really
pleased with the development that we report over the first half year of 2026. We see
the free cash flow coming in at EUR 17 million minus, which is a significant
improvement compared with last year. The strong improvement reflects our continued
focus on proactive working capital management and also partly relates to prior year
phasing effects. Thanks to our well-executed cash and balance sheet management,
we are on track to deliver full-year free cash flow within our outlook range.
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Then let’s wrap up at slide 24 and look at our outlook. We confirm, as said by Pim, our
outlook for the full year 2026, which we shared with you on 23 February.
For normalised EBIT, our outlook is between EUR 40 million and EUR 70 million, and
we expect that to translate into a free cash flow of somewhere between zero and minus
EUR 30 million. The outlook is based on an assumed total revenue growth of between
5% and 7%, where it’s obviously fair to assume that we will end up closer to the lower
end of the range, taking the volume development in the first half of the year into
account.
As just explained, despite the volume decline, the bottom line result was resilient,
where we expect further momentum in operational efficiency going forward.
In 2026, we continue to invest in our strategic focus areas, with capex expected to be
around EUR 125 million, while lease payments will be at the same level as in 2025.
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Expected organic cost increases remain high, around EUR 140 million, mainly laborrelated and other inflationary pressures. But price increases are expected to be more
than sufficient to mitigate this. Our focus will continue to be on strong cost control and
further efficiency improvements, building on our proven efforts to reduce cost.
Please note that the outlook 2026 assumes limited impact from changes in treatment
of the de minimis threshold in the EU and in the US, or in related customs handling
and clearance fee structures. The scope and timing could evolve during the year and
could therefore impact performance. In the past half year, we have implemented valid
and working operational solutions for customs handling and clearance fees.
As of 1 July, and later on also in November. Furthermore, the outlook excludes the risk
that prolonged geopolitical uncertainty may increase inflationary pressure and impact
consumer spending.
I will now hand back to Inge.
Inge Laudy - Manager Investor Relations: Thank you, Pim and Linda, for explaining
the results.
I hand back to the operator to ask to explain the procedure for Q&A. Thank you.
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[Operator instructions]
•
Frank Claassen - Degroof Petercam
Good morning, all. I have a question on the E-commerce volumes. If I recall well, you
started the year with an assumption of 1% to 3% volume growth. Yet we are now at
minus 6.4% for the first half. So what is fair to assume for the full year? What is currently
reflected in your guidance on volume growth?
My next question is a bit related to that and is on the pricing, the average price per
parcel went up 5%. Is it fair to assume that it will go up even further in the second half,
given the lag in the fuel price surcharges? Any comments on that would be helpful.
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Linde Jansen - CFO PostNL: Thanks, Frank, for your questions. Regarding your first
question on the 1% to 3% E-commerce volume growth, you are correct. As the
developments in market growth were lower than we anticipated at the beginning of the
year, it is fair to assume that the volumes for the full year will not meet the 1% to 3%
mentioned earlier. At the same time, as you also see in our current performance, the
drivers underlying price/mix and our operational efficiency are gaining traction and are
showing bottom line results, and we expect further momentum thereof in the second
half of the year.
On your second question on the price per parcel, given our seasonal pattern, you can
expect pricing with peak charges, etc. That trend will accelerate in the remainder of the
year.
•
Marco Limite - Barclays Capital
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I have a few. My first question is on
your statement that some important contracts have been concluded in Q2. What does
that mean for the second half? I think you have just mentioned that pricing should partly
accelerate in the second half, but shall we also expect an improvement in volumes on
a year-over-year basis versus the first half?
My second question is on the Platforms business. In Q2 we have seen a proper
slowdown of volumes versus Q1. Now in the slides you mentioned there was already
some impact from the de minimis in Q2 but in the guidance you do not expect any
impact in the second half. So if you can clarify this point? What is the expectation for
the volumes in the Platforms business, and why should we expect any impact? There
are already some data showing a slowdown of flows from Asia to Europe.
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The third question is on your Mail business. Pim mentioned before that you are working
on submitting your requests for the costs of USO for 2027, but you are still fighting for
the 2025 and 2026. At the same time, you received a fine for a quality of service from
a couple of years ago. The backdrop sounds quite challenging in terms of negotiations.
Any color you can give, any progress you have made, any sort of confidence you have
that this is going through?
Pim Berendsen - CEO PostNL: Let’s go one by one. I think as part of the volume-tovalue strategy, and as you know, not all contracts end at the same date. There have
been a lot of negotiations concluded with predominantly Asian web shops, also into
and throughout Q2. Those contracts have now been secured. And we know against
which conditions, which rates, which volume we expect to carry for them, and that will
go along the way in continuing the strategy from volume to value. Of course, then,
overall volume that we get is still a function of how they commercially perform. Those
contracts work in volume brackets, so if they are below a certain threshold, then also
the price points will move up even more than at the baseline volumes that we
contracted them on. I think it is important to mention key contract renegotiations that
reinforce our conviction that we are on the right path in terms of from volume-to-value
strategy.
The follow-up question in relation to that was whether we expect improvement of
volumes on that international side in the second part of the year, or overall? Overall,
we do expect an improvement from the minus 6.4% to a better number full year, also
based on the answer that Linde just gave to the question of Frank.
I will take question no. 3 and Linde can then comment on your second question. You
say challenging backdrop. Yes, but at the same time, we feel strongly that it cannot be
our problem, and that we need to pay for the transition costs. We need to pay for net
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costs that are out there as a function of an obligation that is put upon us. We make a
distinction between the ACM quality fines that are related to the quality standards in
current postal law versus net costs and future required changes to the USO that make
the mail business sustainable going forward. The first one is clearly a debate with ACM,
and we will go to court because we think the fines are unacceptably high and also the
basis for those fights in our perspective is in there. With governments and chambers,
we continue to discuss the required changes to the postal law that will allow us to make
changes to the obligation or subsequently need net cost compensation if the obligation
is not changing in a way that we can deliver the mail business against an economically
viable rate. That are the answers on one and three. Linde, maybe you can say
something about in relation to the outlook statement?
Linde Jansen - CFO PostNL: To your question with the de minimis volumes, amongst
others for platform and Asia, etc., yes, in our outlook we assume limited impact.
Obviously, that is still the case. We face ourselves now, as also mentioned by Pim
earlier, impacts thereof. However, these are the first weeks. Those parties are now also
trying to organize themselves and make sure how their new logistics model works. We
assume, in the overall long term, no structural impact for the longer term, and therefore
we hold on to our performance. In addition to that, it is also good to note, as you also
see in our current performance, that given our volume decline this time, we are
adapting well to that, to scale down and adjust our costs accordingly.
Marco Limite - Barclays Capital: Thank you very much. And if I may, just a quick
follow-up on this. You are saying that some of the international clients are adjusting the
business model given the new regulation from 1 July. Can you give examples of what
has been made so far? Are we seeing those clients building more warehouses or more
inventories in Europe? And what does that mean for you? Are you still working for
them?
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Pim Berendsen - CEO PostNL: Let me take that question. You need to be very
precise. I think all relevant platforms take different approaches and make different
choices on how they handle this current market situation. There are platforms that
basically say they will manage value on a basket size basis and they will swallow the
vast majority of the EUR 3 fee on that basket and then maybe slightly push a bit of the
external cost up through the price points of the basket. That is one option. So basically,
the client is not really thinking about a new logistical process because he thinks he can
offset this fee in the value of the basket in a split between what the consumer will then
most likely pay more and what they will take as additional cost on their side. Others
take a different view and want to move to higher valued product categories that can
substantiate those fees better and move away from the really low and very cheap
products where a EUR 3 increase in cost is still material, and you will probably see
others that will continue down the road of those low valued goods but then through
European warehousing solutions, increasing warehousing capacity in Europe, flying it
in or cargoing it in bulk, not as a 2C-delivery parcel, but in bulk, to circumvent the
handling fees and duties, and then pick and pack from there and distribute it through
various carriers towards the final consumer.
There are different parties taking different roads, but at the end of the day, it is all about
where the volume will go. It will be shifting in the comparative landscape between those
Asian platforms. There will probably be new entrants taking the lower end of the value
chain, and there will potentially also be comparative implications for the European web
shops, as some of the Asian players really intend to move up to higher valued products,
in which they will then subsequently compete with the current existing European
platforms in those spaces. A lot is going on there, and we of course follow this closely.
It is important that we maintain a good share of wallet in the most important clients that
are willing to pay for service. That is what we secured throughout the contracts that I
have talked about in my answer to one of your earlier questions. So that is how the
market evolves at this point in time.
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Marco Limite - Barclays Capital: Thank you very much.
•
Henk Slotboom - the IDEA!
Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. First of all, a compliment for the
degree of disclosure of numbers, which makes me very happy. But despite that, I have
a couple of questions. First of all, Pimm you talked a lot about the Platforms business
and about the Chinese business, but last week I listened to the CTT conference calls.
They said that Caixa had suffered because a lot of volume was now flowing into the
Benelux countries instead of Madrid, for example, into the Central East Central and
Eastern European countries. What am I missing in the case of Spring, because we see
quite clear a dip in the Asian volumes of Spring. Is that pure value over volume or is it
something else? And what is triggering the European volumes so much? Does it have
to do with the opening of the fulfillment center in Germany? I believe it is for one of the
Spanish leading retailers.
My second question is on E-commerce, and domestic volumes in particular. We have
been giving up some market share by means of the value-over-volume strategy. If I
look at the average value per parcel, if I look at the slide 16 on the development of the
EBIT, it is quite clearly visible that improves your yields. But how far can you go in
giving up volume because at the same time we see parties like GoFo doing a lot of
work for the Chinese, Dragonfly has come in handling volume for Amazon. We have
Joy Express, a new name, Ampère has 85% nationwide coverage, at least that is what
they claim and our traditional players stepping up, and InPost has entered the market
as well. How do you deal with that? Reducing the cost per item is of course one part
of the story, but what can you do to make the volumes grow again?
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And then the final question I have is on Mail. In December there was a ruling by the
CBb on the merger with Sandd. I know it is a sensitive subject. ACM basically got it
right, saying we are going to see how we deal with this situation right now. Have there
been any developments on that front? Those were my questions.
Pim Berendsen - CEO PostNL: Thank you, Henk. The first question had some sub
questions, so correct me if I have not answered them completely. There are a couple
of elements I want to single out. Spring Europe’s e-commerce volume is the doubledigit number that Linde talked about, and that is a function of expanding the panEuropean linehauls from Italy to Spain, from Spain to Germany, by attracting local
clients that fill those trade lines and bring us into a more competitive position. Not
necessarily always, but there also the fulfillment proposition comes into play, and those
are really not capital intensive fulfillment activities where we also manage warehouses
and fulfillment activities for bigger clients that want to ship throughout Europe. So I
think there the growth is as we would like it to be. It is a function of the Platforms growth
plan that we launched in September, and as said, is going according to plan. The
overall Spring volumes are depressed by the development in the quarter by phasing
on the European international mail volumes that do not contribute that much. So in
terms of revenue, not that significant, but in terms of volume, that makes a very good
28% e-commerce volume growth diluted a bit.
On the Asian side I do not see more volume coming to Amsterdam or Liège. What we
do see is that our custom clearance solution is working and has been working from the
get-go, which is of course important because that clarifies towards consumers under
which conditions they can still buy from other parties, and we are able to administer
and also fulfil the customs duties in the chain. There we already saw, based on
examples that we have had in Romania and Italy, that goods in transit have been a big
issue. In other words, how do we exactly know that a product that is bought just before
1 July, does not get any duty if it accesses the country on 1 July or 2 July. So that has
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basically led a lot of these parties to stop marketing campaigns three or four weeks in
advance, not push more products towards Europe, to avoid goods in transit being
treated in a different way. And that has impacted Q2 numbers. We have seen the drops
in volume. We also now see the Asian web shops adjusting their business model,
adjusting their pricing strategies, re-entering the marketing arena to do the marketing
campaigns again. And that is why we said that we do not expect a longer-term
structural impact that is going to be material in terms of EBIT contribution from those
changes, that could still lead to very volatile volume developments. We quite often
have share-of-wallet arrangements with those parties, so although there are new
entrants, they sometimes forced by our volume-to-value strategy have kicked out other
carriers. And now our share is just a function of how successful they are to adjust their
commercial models after the 1 July implementation. I think that is the answer on the
first set of questions.
If you then go to the E-commerce domestic volume, this is a delicate balance between
volume development, yield, and market share. I think the market share loss is within
the boundaries of what we find acceptable. Domestic volume development has
obviously also been impacted by lower consumer spending. So I think the flywheel of
yield improvement could have worked even better with a bit more consumer spending,
as we also anticipated at the beginning of the year. But to alleviate or compensate or
de-risk this dilemma or these commercial game plans, it is obviously helpful to reduce
your cost price per parcel, and that is why we introduced the EUR 75 million additional
costs savings.
Another point in the comparative landscape is our redefined out-of-home strategy. We
will also be significantly better equipped to compete with some of the other players you
mentioned. That also strengthens our competitive position, and over time will also
strengthen the domestic volume development. So far, not unsatisfied with the domestic
performance, but closely monitoring of market share development, yield, and volume
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increases remains crucial. That is what we do on a daily basis and that is why it is to
look at the answers that Linda gave. We have been able to adjust the network and
create efficiencies in the network utilisation, so that yield is not suffering that much with
lower volume than anticipated.
And on the third point, this is sensitive. I do not think the CBb said that ACM got it right.
They said something about the permit and on a 2020-2018 basis. So it’s up to ACM to
do their research. Of course, we feel that there is no need at all to amend anything.
We have adhered to the conditions of the permit and the permit was there at the day
we acquired Sandd and it was there when we integrated the business. But I do not
have clarity right now as to where ACM is in their research or in their investigation. So
I cannot tell you more about it right now.
Henk Slotboom - the IDEA!: Thank you very much for your extended answers.
•
Marc Zwartsenburg – ING
Good morning, everybody. I have one question left. Can you give a bit more color on
the additional EUR 75 million of cost savings and also on the phasing and what is
behind it? How should we face it in the model and what is really the driver of the EUR
75 million.
Linde Jansen - CFO PostNL: Thanks, Mark. As mentioned, it is mainly within Ecommerce, but also in the related support functions, such as HR, finance, and IT. We
refer to the phasing for the total over both years, so 2027 and 2028. I would say you
can calculate with approximately 50-50 on both years.
Marc Zwartsenburg - ING: That is clear. Thank you very much.
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•
Marco Limite - Barclays Capital
Thank you for taking my follow-up question. Could you go over again the business
model of the Platforms
business, because you mentioned before non-capital-intensive fulfillment activities.
You gave an example of Italian volumes into Spain, Spain to Germany, and so on. Can
you explain to us what the activity here is and what it involves? Now you are offering
non-capital-intensive fulfillment center activities. Is this the business model? Are you
planning to do more of that in the next years?
Pim Berendsen - CEO PostNL: Thank you. It is really what it is. If clients are happy
with the logistical solution, but can you also help them out with fulfillment activities, we
think about the best way to do so, in conjunction with that client. Quite often it is a lease
obligation the client takes and we then just operate the location. Sometimes it is us
taking the leasehold, but back-to-back commitments from the client to compensate for
that. But it is given the type of business we are in and the type of clients the Spring
countries support. It is not a highly automated fulfillment activities. For the largest part
it is traditional pick and pack, with some efficiency improvements there, and that is why
it is less capital intensive than for other segments.
Marco Limite - Barclays Capital: Got it. And is the plan to build up a proper fulfilment
business, which is unrelated to the …
Pim Berendsen - CEO PostNL: Only in relation to our European growth business and
only in relation to the type of customers that Spring serves. So that will not lead to big
investments in fulfilment centers. It is an organically developing model, only to the
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extent that it helps us creating more density in the pan-European trade lanes, so as to
make Spring even more competitive.
Marco Limite - Barclays Capital: Thank you. And given that I have the opportunity
also to maybe ask the last one. When we think about the new EUR 75 million cost
savings, shall we think about those cost savings as an offset to lower volume decline,
or a way to protect your margins, or is this actually in your business plan offers further
upside to where you think you were?
Pim Berendsen - CEO PostNL: It is, as I said, de-risking and creating room to
maneuver in slightly more competitive market circumstances. So do not add this just
to the ambitions of 2028. It will de-risk the plan. If that comes with slightly better volume
development, then performance will accelerate beyond the ambition. But let’s get first
to the ambition levels that we set for 2028, and this de-risks this for the combination of
the factors that you said. It could help de-risking a slightly lower volume development.
It could help being more precise as to which price points on the volume-to-value
strategy we want to entertain, it helps maintain the market share at the level we think
we need to maintain it, and it actually assesses the risks and the commercial elements
of the e-commerce plan, giving us more confidence that we can get to the 2028
objectives.
Marco Limite - Barclays Capital: And when you say that will add up to EUR 170 to
EUR 180 million, you are adding those costs to the sort of …
Pim Berendsen - CEO PostNL: The EUR 170 million to EUR 180 million is the total
number of cost savings over the period where this EUR 75 has now been included.
Marco Limite - Barclays Capital: The base you are adding these EUR 75 million of
costs to is the group cost savings or is it specifically E-commerce?
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Pim Berendsen - CEO PostNL: It is mainly E-commerce because we do this to derisk for the competitive environment in E-commerce. But as Linde said, it also involves
some support functions that are also working on behalf of e-commerce. So it aims to
impact the E-commerce cost base.
Marco Limite - Barclays Capital: Very clear. Thank you.
Inge Laudy - Manager Investor Relations: As there are no more questions, thank
you all for joining today. If you have any questions, you know how to reach us.
Thank you, and speak to you in October.
End of call
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