Executive readout · one minute
Webcast research workspace
Read the call alongside every captured source. Transcript, slides stay in one workspace.
Earnings call · FY2026 Q2
Executive readout · one minute
Read the call alongside every captured source. Transcript, slides stay in one workspace.
Management tone
Positive
Net tone +15 · moderate hedging
Forward guidance
1 guided metrics
Management's latest ranges and targets are included below.
Research coverage
2 live sources
Open each available source without leaving this research workspace.
Open the source you need; every reader stays inside this workspace.
Stated verbally and extracted from the transcript.
| Metric | Period | Guided | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Operating free cash flow conversion
Initiated
FY '26
|
90% – 100% | — |
Read the call
Open the complete stored earnings-call transcript.
May 13, 202 6
HBX Group International PLC Half Year Results 202 6
CORPORATE SPEAKERS: Nicolas Huss HBX Group International PLC; Chief Executive Officer Brendan Brennan HBX Group International PLC; Chief Financial Officer Isabel Green HBX Group International PLC; Head of Investor Relations
PARTICIPANTS: Luka Trnovsek Berenberg; Equity Research Associate Guilherme Sampaio CaixaBank; Director, Equity Research Miguel Gonzalez JB Capital Markets; Director, Equity Research Carlos Trevino Banco Santander SA; Executive Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst Thomas Poutrieux BNP Paribas Exane; Equity Research Analyst Olivia Venancio Barclays , Equity Research Associate Nizla Naizer Deutsche Ba nk, Equity Research Christopher Tong UBS; Equity Research Director Guilherme Sampaio CaixaBank BPI , Equity Research Analyst Miguel Gonzalez JB Capital Markets , Equity Research Analyst Luka Trnovsek Berenberg, Equity Research Analys t PRESENTATION: Isabel Green: Hello, and welcome, everyone. Thank you very much for coming to our First Half Results Presentation today. I'm Isabel Green, I'm Head of Investor Relations. And before we begin, I'd just like to remind you that today's presentation includes forward statements. The full disclaimer relating to that is at the back of the deck and in the press release today.
-looking
We start today on the agenda with our CEO, Nicolas Huss, with a short introduction. And he'll be followed by Brendan Brennan, who will take you through the financial results in more detail. After that, Nicolas will give an update on our progress against our strategic priorities.
Our prepared remarks today are expected to last for around 40 minutes. After that, we will have time to take your questions, first in the room, then on the phones. And if you're on the webcast, you can type them in. And as long as there's time permitting, we will read them out for you. Thank you very much, and over to you, Nicolas. Nicolas Huss: Thank you very much. First of all, good morning, everyone. And I think if I start by the H1 summary, what you will see actually is that we have had a strong s tart to the year and a good performance across our core metrics and delivery within guidance that we set. We have delivered a solid set of results for H1. If you look at the numbers here on the screen, you will see that we have plus 17% in total transaction value growth. We have a positive revenue growth of 1% and a 9% adjusted EBITDA growth, all of that in co nstant currency. And what I like is that we are delivering on TTV and profitability at the top of our guidance ranges. It's also important to see that we have delivered more than 100%, actually 103% of cash conversion, underlining both the quality of the earnings, but also the discipline of our operating model. Overall, I think it is a performance that reflects clear execution. I think the execution against the strategy is something that I like very much personally. We have this good cost and capital discipline and the ability of the business to perform well as m arket conditions evolved along the period, as we will come back to that in a few minute s. So, if I first start with a strategic progress update, so wanted to highlight the progress we are making there. We have this strategy, we explained that to you. And in the first half, we made good tangible progress across the pillars. A few examples maybe to start with, you have all of this on the slide in front of you. We said that we would keep expanding on scale and relevance, and that's what we did in high growth market and channels. We expanded our partnership with Traveloka, one of the leadin g travel platforms in Southeast Asia, giving us deeper access to fast growing domestic and regional demand across the region. This, of course, strengthened our presence in APAC and it supports our long -term volume that are so important in terms of being a scaled technology -led partner. In China, you have heard of this, we've signed this very long -term partnership with Dida, one of the largest outbound B2B travel platform. I think what I like about this partnership is that it is really scaling very strongl y. It's increasing the exposure to outbound and domestic travel flows. And also, the partnership is highly complementary, combining our global sourcing capabilities with Dida's deep China distribution strength. Within the ecosystem in the, at the center of the slide, I think a few words here maybe to walk you through what we're doing. I'll start with Queer Destination. That's a very important partnership for us. It's a strategic partnership.
Queer Destination, as you certainly know, it's a global verified ecosystem on inclusive travel, combining curated supply, content, technology, and of course certification. And what makes it particularly attractive for us is that it serves a large underserv ed and highly engaged global travel community. This community actually represents more than EUR 3.5 trillion of annual spending power. As a national economy, Queer Destinations would be probably the fifth largest economy in the world. And we have been s elected as the B2B intermediary, thanks to the scale, the reliability, and the exception capability that we have. Clearly, a very strong example on how our scale and distribution and fulfillment capabilities allow us to support partners to unlock increment al demand and build differentiated values. Fintech, you know that it's a key part of our strategy. Here, I think there are some very good steps. You can see the names of Mastercard and Outpayce here on the screen. I think we've launched this partnership w ith both of them and it's about Outpayce becoming a strategic partner. They are now powering a cloud -native virtual card issuance with supplier payment capabilities. What we do with them is a virtual program where we combine instant payouts, automated reco nciliation, and multi currency scale. We build actually on the strength of the three partners. Of course, Outpayce provide the issuing, the wallets, and the automation. Mastercard, by definition, the global reach, the acceptance, and the scheme innovation, while we bring our capability in term s of hospitality and payments expertise. Last word on that tangible partner impact, it's clearly around improved liquidity, revenue generation, cash flow, visibility, and operational efficiency. For us, the key word here is long -term monetization as we wa nt to keep growing in fintech. And together, these examples, I mean, they really demonstrate that we're executing with intent. That's something that was key when we last spoke to you. We're scaling where scale matters the most, making some choices. Brendan will come back to that. We're building this differentiated ecosystem where we can create value. And we're also reinforcing profitability through this disciplined cash execution led gr owth that you can see on the right of the slides. Maybe a last word, I'm certain that you're all aware of that, but you have seen actually the launch of the EUR 100 million share buyback program, EUR 12 million of which was already executed in the last month. And the announcement today of our maiden interim dividends that y ou can also see on the screen, EUR 0.75 per share, give or take EUR 18 million. If I move now to the next slides here, I wanted to spend some time on AI, we get this question and debate a lot when we interact all together. So, here, we have tried with the team to put a clear vision of how AI operates for us at HBX. And the message that I would like to pass on this slide, it's like it's not an ambition, it's a reality. We do that every day. We've been doing that for some time. And the example that you will see on this page are actually already live, deployed, or actively being rolled out.
-
You remember what we said first. It's about three very practical objectives, automation, acceleration, and augmentation. Let me quickly give you a few snapshots here. So, we first start with the first one, automation. Here, we have this AI -enabled room map ping, which is a good example of how we are removing friction. I mean, it's about making it easier. We do that, for instance, also with Civitfun in sourcing. And the objective is very simple here. It's to improve the content accuracy to make sure that we reduce booking errors and to increase fulfillment reliability. So, all very tangible benefits for our partners. And we're using machine learning models to automatically match hotel room descriptions across different suppliers and distributors and we're si gnificantly reducing manual intervention and error rates. And it's a more accurate. It's a fewer post -booking issues and higher conversion benefits when you look at it all together. In acceleration, you have seen our first agentic AI agent is already live . I mean, it's all about automating hard volume of internal workflows that previously required manual execution. And the team will focus, of course, on the high -value activity. But what I see as important is that it's already delivering a financial impact. We will come back with Brendan to the increased productivity of the company. But here you see the first two agentic AI agents are generating already around EUR 1 million of annualized cost savings. So, it's a concrete example of what we do. And in augme ntation, you know that we're enabling new ways for demand to access and interact with travel content. Through conversational travel interfaces, partners can literally surface HBX content using natural language requests rather than traditional search and fi ltering. So, here, a word on MCPs as a key enabler, you know that they allow AI to securely connect to our data, understand context, and retrieve the right content in real time. So, for us, it enables us to act as a fulfillment layer of this emerging AI d riven. The point here is that we're not only working on today, we're also prepping for tomorrow in partnership with a certain number of players. And you will see also that we have announced today a very interesting partnership when it comes in acquisition, when it comes to AI. So, we will come back to that if you want to in the question and answers. But clearly, I mean, this is strengthening our wi llingness to develop experiences, but also our ability to connect the go -to markets on a much more efficient w ay in the coming month. Brendan, up to you now. Brendan Brennan: Okay. Thank you, Nicolas, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with a brief review of our income statement and the key metrics for the first half of the year. We delivered a solid financial performance with good execution across our cor e metrics and results within our guidance ranges. Total transaction value grew 17% on a constant currency basis, to EUR 3.8 billion, driven by double digit growth across sourcing regions, and strong perf ormance in scale distribution channels, despite an estimated one percentage point headwind from the Middle East, which we'll come back to a little later.
-
Revenue increased 1% in constant currency to EUR 309 million, or 2% excluding the Middle East impact, implying a take rate of 8.2%, down 1.3 percentage points year on year. This reflects deliberate mix shifts and commercial actions to prioritize volume gro wth and market share capture. Gross profit increased 3%, supported by growth in higher margin fintech activities, particularly with virtual credit cards. Our adjusted EBITDA increased 9% to EUR 163 million, with margins expanding to 53%, driven by operat ing leverage, disciplined cost management, and productivity initiatives, including the increased use of automation and AI that Nicolas just made a reference to. Net financing costs, of course, fell significantly, 76%, reflecting the impact of the IPO and last year's debt refinancing. Finally, adjusted earnings were EUR 83 million, up 44% with an adjusted EPS of 34 cents. So, really, a very robust start to our fina ncial year 2026. In terms of the geographic performance and how our performance split acros s our major regions then, let's take a look. In Europe, TTV grew 16%, driven by continued strength in domestic and interregional travel across our core markets, including Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. As our largest region, this performance reflects a bout resilient demand and deep distribution relationships. In Americas, TTV increased 18%, supported by strong domestic demand in the U.S., Canada, and Brazil. Growth was further boosted by the expanded Despegar partnership, which you'll recall from our previous conversations, with contribution quadrupling year on year, making it our largest partner in Latin America. In parallel, several large hotel chains, including Choice and Marriott, delivered strong growth, particularly in U.S. domestic corridors. In MEAPAC, TTV grew 16%, with APAC, a key highlight of 17%, driven by strong performances in Japan, Singapore, and the Philippines, alongside expanded channels in China. The strong underlying performance was partially offset, of course, by the disruption w e saw in March in the Middle East conflict that has risen at that time. Overall, these results underline the value of scale, partnership, and geographic diversification, which continues to support our above -market growth, even as regional conditions evolve. Moving on to the next slide, we wanted to spend a little more time this time talking to you about some of the very conscious decisions we've made in the last while. And the mix shifts reflect deliberate choices to scale the business and align with fa st growing demand pools. Excuse me. Increased use of third -party supply is a strategic enabler in this context. Beyond supporting short lead time demand, it expands our reach into new markets and segments and allows us to scale volume efficiently while maintaining a disciplined co st structure. You can see the increase there, 14% to 17% year over year. We continue to see a structural shift towards shorter booking lead times and we are increasing our share of this segment with bookings made inside three w eeks, increasing the share of TTV year on year. And that's probably not a surprise as we see that often in times of more geopolitical instability, people do leave their decision making that bit shorter in their lead times.
At the same time, we are increasing exposure to fast growing, high throughput distribution channels, particularly OTAs and wholesale, while our technology, connectivity, and fulfillment capability provided clear right to win. These choices can have near -term implications for mix and yield, but they are designed to scale efficiently, deepen partner integration, and secure long -term value and volume as scale and automation builds the economics profile of this type of business. As I said at the outset, thes e were very conscious decisions. We made them proactively. I think they've had a really, really positive impact in our TTV growth rate, and obviously shows the dynamism of the business and its ability to respond even in times of uncertainty as we have seen with the Middle East crisis. Turning to take rate, this slide shows how the mix evolution flowed through in the first half. The change is primarily mix driven. Around 50 basis points reflects shifts in customer product and channel mix, including higher exposure to OTAs, wholesale, and third -party supply, alongside a continued shift towards shorter lead time bookings, as we talked about on the previous slide. Pricing actions account for around 30 basis points, reflecting targeted commercial decisions taken to protect volume, support partners, and remain competitive through a more volatile trading environment. Together, these deliberate actions explain around 90 basis points of the total movement. The remaining 50 basis points relate to the timing of no n-trading effects, including some individual small one -off items. The Middle East impact, of course, would have had a force majeure impact upon cancellations. We see elevated cancellations, and that would have flipped some refundable rates to non -refundabl e. So, that obviously has an impact as well on these elements of take rate. And obviously, shifts in contribution from legacy revenue components as we work with our partners to improve connectivity, automate processes, and increase penetration of fintech solutions. And again, some of the decline there is offset by growing profit c ontribution from fintech solutions like virtual credit card penetrations, which of course is seen as a positive trend on our gross margin line. Overall, this reflects deliberate execution choices, as I said. We are scaling into faster growing channels wh ere near -term yields can be lower, but relevance, volume and long -term value are higher importantly as automation and scale benefit build. We believe the pace of take rate decline is flattening, supporting more stable economics over time and giving us conf idence about our mid term view. Turning then more to the deep dive on the Middle East and what specifically happened in that region during the period of March and April specifically. We saw sharp declines in travel into and out of the Middle East, alongs ide reduced interregional flows. For context, the Middle East has been growing at around 8% year on year in FY '25, providing a useful pre -conflict run rate. The step back in March and April represents a clear reversal, driven by cancelations and corridor disruption. Disruption to the long -haul transit corridors, particularly between Asia, PAC, and Europe
also weighed on certain flows. This led to some under -- some moderation, I should say, in growth outside the Middle East, with the rest of the world growing easing to around 12% compared to the group's 17% half year, first half run rate. This was partially offset by relocating demand with stronger into Europe travel, particularly into the southern European destinations, such as Spain, Italy, and Portugal. Importantly, we are seeing very strong and acceleration growth in the Americas, espec ially in the U. S., which has helped offset some of the broader pressure on growth. Overall, we estimate that the conflicts reduced H1 TTV and revenue growth by around one percentage point, as I mentioned earlier. Looking ahead, in our base case, we assume a four -month period of disruption from March to June, followed by a gradual stabilization and travel patterns adjust. On that basis, we estimate an impact of approximately four percentage points on full -year TTV a nd revenue growth. Importantly, much of the demand has been reallocated rather than lost, supporting performance outside of the most affected corridors. While near -term visibility remains limited, our diversified geographic exposure and agile commercial model continue to support resilience, consistent with ho w the group has navigated previous periods of regional disruption. On cost and efficiency, we remain highly focused on cost discipline and efficiency, and this has enabled us to deliver adjusted EBITDA ahead of guidance while continuing to support growth Overall operating costs decreased 5% year on year, despite revenues growing 1%, reflecting strong operating leverage. Around 80% of our costs are not directly linked to trading volumes, as you'll know, and total average FTEs were down circa 2% year on ye ar.
.
Commercial costs, our largest cost line fell 8%, benefiting from the commercial reorganization and efficiency initiatives we implemented, continuing to support growth through scaled partnership. Global operations costs decreased 9%, driven by AI -enab led automation and footprint optimization. Technology costs declined 3%, mainly due to lower cloud costs, which is as a result of our more efficient use of that technology, while maintaining investment in reliability and security. Total technology spend, including CapEx, was EUR 44 million, or 14% of revenue, which is very much in line with our target in the long term. Central costs increased just 1%, reflecting ongoing discipline and the one -off step up associated with being a public listed company. No n-functional costs declined 5%, primarily due to a lower variable remuneration with bonus accruals adjusted in line with performance. Overall, this cost performance demonstrates structural discipline, scalability, and efficiency, supporting profitable growth and strong cash generation. Costs discipline in HBX remain structural and non -tactical. As the business scales, we continue to bene fit from a largely fixed cost base and increasing operating leverage. Importantly, continued investment and automation , AI-enabled workflows, are more scalable, sourcing models is improving productivity across the organization. Further, we see a clear opportunity for double -digit productivity gains over the next 15 to 18 months, supporting our
margin resilience as volumes grow. This underpins our ability to deliver EBITDA growth and strong cash generation even as revenue mix continues to evolve. So, moving now to slide 14, which shows the evolution of our net debt position. Adjusted net debt increased seasonally to EUR 741 million, reflecting typical first half working capital outflows alongside continued investments in the business. Leverage rema ined comfortable at 1.7 times adjusted EBITDA, well within our target range of one to two. Strong operating cash flows continue to underpin balance sheet strengths, offset by net interest, CapEx, and modest FX movements. Key driver of the working capital movement was continued growth in virtual credit card usage. Reported net debt at the period end was EUR 602 million, including these seasonal working capital effects. Overall, the balance sheet remains strong with ongoing cash generation providing flexibility and optionality within our disciplined capital allocation framework. So, on slide 15, our strong cash generation underpins disciplined capital allocation, as I mentioned. We continue to invest selectively in growth with EUR 23 million of CapEx in H1, focused mainly on technology, strategic initiatives, and the support and supporting our sca lability and efficiency. Alongside this, we completed the acquisition of PerfectStay primarily out of year contingent consideration being involved. Net leverage of 1.7 times maintains flexibility for continued investment while preserving balance sheet re silience. In parallel, we have initiated capital returns, including the EUR 100 million share buyback that Nicolas made a reference to, our inaugural interim dividend at EUR 0.75 cents per share, and we purchased EUR 12 million in the share repurchase in t he first half of the year. On top of this, we announced our interim dividend today and we confirm our intent to pay 20% of adjusted earnings for the year. Turning to slide 16 and the outlook for FY '26. Training conditions became more volatile, of course from late February, driven primarily by the escalation of the Middle East conflict. Based on current visibility, we have updated our FY '26 guidance to reflect an estimated four percentage point adverse impact on full year TTV growth. Our base case scena rio assumes a four -month period of disruption followed by gradual stabilization and progressive improvement as travel patterns adjust and re -routing continues. As the disruption impacts in Q3 and Q4, which represents a meaningful share for full -year perf ormance, the effect of the full -year guidance is more pronounced and consistent with the broader industry effects of the conflict. As a result, we are now expect constant currency TTV growth between 11% and 15% in FY '26, continuing to outperform the under lying accommodation market, which is estimated to grow at around 3%, including slowdown related to the Middle East. Revenue growth is expected to be lower in the range of minus 4% to plus 1% as obviously previously mentioned, predominantly as a result of the 4% impact to the Middle East. However, we also have that deliberate mixed decisions that I made reference to earlier, including greater exposure to scale distribution channels, shorter lead time bookings, and targeted commercial actions taken to suppo rt partners through the disruption. In parallel, we have continued to prioritize actions that protect long -term scale partner relationships and the ecosystem economics.
,
There was deliberate strategic choices. While they have an expected short -term impact on revenue mix, they support the structural strength of the business as conditions normalize. We will continue to maintain a strong focus on cost control and operational efficiency. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of minus 5% to minus 2%. As a reminder, around half of our revenues in TTV is U.S. dollar denominated, which is important for your modelling. Consistent with prior periods, we therefore provide guidance on a constant currency basis. Based on current spot rates, FX is expected to represent an approximate two to three percentage point headwind to reported growth rates. Operating free cash flow conversion is expected to remain strong, albeit slightly down from where we'd like at between 90% to 100%, but still a very favorable outcome there overall. Continued execution against our strategic priorities will reinforce growth , relevance, and efficiency over the medium term. This underpins our confidenc e where our medium -term ambition remains unchanged, supported by strong structural growth drivers, ecosystem expansion, and disciplined execution. And with all of that said, I'll hand it back over to Nicolas. Nicolas Huss: Okay, thank you, Brendan. A few comments before we move into Q&A. The first one is how do we navigate change? Just wanted to maybe provide a little bit of perspective. You know the story that we've mentioned several time. I think it's a very attractive market despite circumstances. It has a continued long -term growth. It's growing much faster than global GDP on the long -term perspective. But of course, on top of the actual events, you have this undergoing structural change and it's becoming of course more complex. And what we have explained is that our strategy at HBX has been designed to specifically navigate this environment and that the se are the changes that we've done last summer. Let me try to walk you through that. First of all, growth is increasingly concentrated in a few asp ects. You have these scaled distribution channels. You have these shorter booking lead times that we've commented on again and again. And you have, of course, a greater pricing transparency. Hotels are also placing much greater emphasis on cost efficiency, control, and profitability. At the same time, what we see is that competition across accommodation and distribution is more intense. With of course this greater transparency on price and terms, it's reshaping the way demand is allocated. We know that th ese dynamics favor distributors that can operate with scale, efficiency, and flexibility, while offering partners more than pure volume. And I was telling you we have designed our strategies specifically to go through that. We have aligned and are aligning our platform where growth is being created. Brendan insisted on it. We are protecting value for suppliers and distributors. That's in our DNA. We're a B2B player. And we're positioning the group for continued relevance and scale in this global accommoda tion distribution.
Well, a few words about what we have accomplished and a few numbers, no? It's -- I've told you, I think we have these sets of core strength that have been proven in delivery, not just in theory. And some of the numbers that you will see here, I'm very plea sed with. Since 2019, just pre -COVID, we have doubled the scale of the company. A transaction as you can see, which is way better. But we have also maintained this fully asset -light B2B model. Brendan was telling you, for instance, that our costs have been more than well -contained over H1. Over the same period, the profitability has scaled meaningfully. Adjusting EBITDA margins have increased to around 60% over revenue. And you can see that the EBITDA per employee has almost tripled, which I think is reflecting str uctural productivity and discipline execution as a company. Also, what I see as very important is that this improvement has been driven by automation, simplification, and scale, not by one of cost actions. As we continue embedding AI -enabled workflow and more scalable sourcing models, we see further productivity up side ahead of us. So, it's far from being over. We keep on executing and we will bring more productivity, i.e., more money to the company in the coming horizon. This will, of course, support marg in and cash generation over the medium term. The blue box is something that I like very much. We have a broader strategy. It's not only about accommodation. The ecosystem activities such as fintech and other non -accommodation services have grown more than 2.5 time and now represent material and growi ng contribution to value creation. I'll give you a number in a second, but maybe I would say that while accommodation still makes most of the group TTV, you see the impact in this strategy with around 20% of our gross profit now generated by M&E, by fintech, by hotel tech contribution, and we will keep adding activities. As for instance, we have been developing over the past 12 months a marketing -as -a-service activity, which is proving to be full of potential , no? You have seen that again and again, this has been achieved alongside significant deleveraging following the IPO. We have strengthened the balance sheets. We are providing also flexibility for continued investment and resilience through the cycle. Last word on this slide. I think this strength, when you look at them together, they provide HBX with the resilience, with the scale, with the execution capability which are required to navigate structurally a more demanding market. It also underpin our con fidence in the group medium positioning to deliver sustainable value creation at scale.
-term
Okay. What does it mean in terms of execution with the building blocks? A few snapshots on this one. We said that we are executing on this. We are first scaling the core. That's something which is really our DNA. It's about adjusting channel and client mix towards fastest -growing demand tools, including OTA, resellers, MEAPAC, shop lead time booking. It is supported by the mix of direct contracting, which is what we have been doing always, and third -party supply, enabling a more scalable, cost effective, and competitive distribution model while protecting the value at the same time.
The second we just mentioned, it is this ecosystem growth that we are expanding through new partnership, product, and capability. It's about embedding additional services around the accommodation flow and then thing at the same time partner integration. Bu t it also does improve our efficiency and reinforce our role as an end -to-end B2B partner. So, it's a non -negotiable. And then you know that we are really investing in AI. We're embedding the AI workflow across the organization. Finally, we're expanding scale and capabilities by unlocking new growth segments beyond this accommodation, distribution. And the intention, let me repeat that because I think that it's strategically very important. It's not to be only a mere accommodation intermediary. It's about being more deeply into partner workflows and open new demand flows. Civitfun is a very good example of that. But PerfectStay on dynamic packaging, you will see a great announcement coming in the coming days, and Bridgify. These are all good things that he lp us from a partnership perspective. And then finally, one last slide to try to summarize what we've done and where we are today. So, the intention is what you have in the blue box at the top right of the slide here. It's really building HBX into a scaled AI -enabled B2B partner of choice. We are creating scale distribution platform where scale itself becomes structural as an advantage, driving efficiency, resilience, and relevance. This platform is supported by this broader integrated travel ecosystem where we, at the same time, deepen partner integration and extend our role beyond pure distribution. And when you look at it by combining the scale through an AI -enabled operating model and ecosystem capabilities that we have proven over the years, we're e volving into an operating and fulfillment layer for the B2B travel. So, it's way beyond just a distributor role. And the positioning I think underpin our confidence in the group's ability to deliver. So, this is me done and very happy to now open to Q&A. Unidentified Participant: Hi. Can you hear me? Yes. Thanks for the presentation. Maybe two for my side. Can you give us some more color on maybe some -- how some of the smaller segments are doing, specifically around take rate and TTV mobility and experie nces? And how Bridgify might or might not contribute to the full year and some synergies in there as well? And I guess secondly, if I look at the share of shorter lead time TTV, the mix was up one percentage point year over year. But given your increased share with OTAs and the current environment with shorter lead time as well, I would imagine that share of sh orter TTV should be even higher. Can you help me reconcile that? Brendan Brennan: I'll start off on your second point, if that's okay, and we'll come back to your smaller businesses point in a moment. You're not wrong, and what we've tried to do today is terms of try to pass it out as best we can. Because of the nature of how we work our business, there's always some overlap between different elements. So, what we've tried to do is split it very much on the basis of where we're making conscious decisions about lead times and changing some of the offerings we're giving versus the volumes
in
that would go to an OTA. It doesn't mean that the OTA wouldn't have, by nature, a shorter lead time as well. So, there is some element of compounding effect. We've tried to separate them as much as possible to say, if we look at these as discreetly as possible, what do we think is the primary element around the change in trajectory? And we would say that the OTAs would be slightly different, although you could probably do some additive math there between the two in terms of if you were just doing everythi ng that we've had a shorter lead time than what previously have had. So, again, what we're trying to do is be discreet as possible to give you better clarity on the actions that we're taking and that we can control to give better visibility to that. I think the big piece from all of that is that we are doing exactly what we said we were doing in Q4 and Q1, which is looking at where the market is fastest growing, being flexible, being able to react to that. And then as you've seen from the very good tr aj ectory of our TTV, which if it weren't for the Middle East crisis, we would be beating our guidance for the full year on TTV. So, I think that really shows that actually the actions we have taken are having a meaningful impact. And that's really moving in the right direction. Brendan Brennan: On the new companies, yes, to your point, we've seen, as Nicolas pointed out, they're a very significant part of our gross margin story. 20% now of gross margin comes from our ancillary businesses outside our accommo dation core. We've been particularly, I made reference to it, particularly happy with the impact of our fintech solutions. And of course, that's very related to that TTV. So, the volume of total cash that flows through our business is very impacted. And there is a corr elation, of course, between those. So, we've seen the business performing really well ahead of its overall performance expectations. I would say our M&E business we're still doing a lot of work structurally on that business at the moment. We've looked at how we integrated into our organization. We have the acquisition of Bridgify that will give us more ability to onboard more activities in a much faster pace than we have done previously using smart AI technology. Albeit, I would say that's still a challenged marketplace, still not quite performing where I'd like it to, and certainly not at the level of the accommodation business in terms of year over year trajectory. So, there is work to be done. We think we have the right strategy. We'v e done a lot to change the structure there to make sure it's very embedded, and we're moving in the right direction. So, I think there are some signs of positive traction as we go forward. And we're very excited about the Bridgify acquisition. The rest of those businesses, that's M&E, that's fintech. Roiback, I think, remain solid, strong, continues to be a good part of our organization. And as we brought in thinking, really now leveraging AI into that business as well, which is a new step for t hem in ter ms of their technology platforms. So, yes, we see it as a continuing story, the probably star of the class being fintech at the moment.
Olivia Venancio: Hi Olivia from Barclays here. Thank you for taking my questions. So, just two for me. First, can you give any color in your current trading and how summer bookings are going? And then secondly, the slide on take rate was super helpful. Regarding your commentary on take rate declines fl attening, how should we think about that mix going forward then? Brendan Brennan: Sure. Do you want to start with the trading update? Nicolas Huss: Yes, I think it's, of course, by definition, more erratic. We commented on the impact on March, which was very strong. I mean, cancellations, they not only have impact on our volume, but they also have impact on our revenue and overall profitability. By definition, within force majeure, which is what happened, you have to cancel everything. And then all of the refundable, non -refundable notion just disappear because our role is to protect the traveler. And we've done a great job. We have people on the deck, 24/7 crisis teams. And I think it's something which is really valued by the clients. When it comes to, interestingly, the volumes these days are actually very good. So, we have repositions into different corridors, grabbing the growth where it's st ill. Some of it, it's easier for us. Some of this requires more agility, but we're doing a big effort on that, yes. Brendan Brennan: Yes, I see it's been very positive over the last number of weeks. We think we've seen certainly that spike in cancellations decrease. So, we're definitely through the worst of that. And as Nicolas said, a positive trajectory. I think from a take rate perspective, we wanted to give you that much more color this time out. I think it helps some of the narrative. We are, as we' ve said, repeatedly taking deliberate actions that are changing the mix of our take rate, albeit the underlying elements are still very, very solid. But that just changes from an absolute growth perspective, of course. I think when we talked about the idea of it flattening out in the second half, of course, what we saw into last year, and to reiterate the point, maybe, had it not been for the Middle East crisis, we do feel that both in revenue and EBITDA we would be on g uidance this year. I mean, there wo uld be, that was by far the biggest factor that had a negative impact, if you like, on performance. But we did see in the second half of last year, as you recall, a softer trading period. And we were starting to react to it. Then, albeit, as we said at the year end, probably not at the speed, but the flexibility that we would, we should have done at that point. I think that gives us relatively an easier comp in the second half from a take rate perspective, as we started to adjust our structures to be more , if you like, commercially competitive in the second half of last year. So, the variance, if you like, isn't as great in the second half of the year. Plus, of course, now you'll see half -over-half. quarter -over-quarter, an easing in that overall trajectory. So, we feel like in the first half of this year, we've done a lot. We've changed a lot as an organization. We've taken some of that, that change, if you like, in the first half of the year. And our trajectory is that we should be able to see that fl atten out in the second half.
I think the third quarter will be still impacted by probably most, that's going to be the quarter that's most impacted by the Middle East. Let's be honest. As we go into quarter four, I'd like to see us really getting back on the right side of growth from a revenue perspective. Luka Trnovsek: Hi, it's Luka from Berenberg. Thank you for taking my question. So, just two for me. So, I know on the guidance a bit you mentioned that you assume a four -month conflict followed by a gradual period of recovery. So, I was just more curious, what do you mean by gradual recovery? And if you could maybe give it a bit of a context around the minus 50% to 70% we saw in March and April and how that could look like in Q4? And then just, I guess, a follow -up on the take rate bit, you mentioned about a 30 -basis point portion of the take rate decline, which driven by commercial pricing actions. So, I was curious, is that something that you expect to be structural and remain lo oking ahead into full year '27 as well, or is that more one -off Middle East driven? Thank you. Brendan Brennan: Yes, so I'll start with your second question and go back to your first one. So, on our, I suppose on the commercial actions that we've taken, I do think, again, this, as we said, we looked at the shifting of channels. But we also, and I sa id this in Q4 into Q1 as well, we also felt we needed to be more commercially competitive. So, I always use the phrase sharper elbows, right? So, make sure that we have our place in the marketplace. It is a c ompetitive dynamic environment. I would never apologize for being a strong competitor in that space. So, it is something that we look at. I think obviously you would say, yes, predominantly the Middle East crisis has made the environment more competitive. And so, as a consequence, yes, I think that level is probably elevated. Albeit again, as I said, I wouldn't say that that won't be a part of the math as we go forward. But what we would say is that's certainly the quantum that we saw this half, if you li ke, was certainly impacted by that piece. Sorry, just remind me on your -Nicolas Huss: While we go to the other part, which was, I saw the questions on the take rate and the impact, if I'm not mistaken. So, when it comes to commercial action, it's not something that we would do only for the short term. It's really what, as Bren dan was saying, we are building a distribution engine for the mid and long term. And that's very important. I could give you many example, but I can deal on Despegar that we announced literally a year ago. When I looked at the result, this year is just f lying, the relationship is way more efficient. And because we have this market share in the region with the hotels, we get the granularity because we have both of that. Then we get the tier -two players. Some of them have already been announced that have be en signing with us also long -term agreements. Dida is another very good example. I mean, it's not about only China and outbound and inbound, as I have simplified earlier on. It's also about them leveraging our global sourcing capability. But for us, for i nstance, China was not open to our retail activity because of a geolocation constraints and many others. Then through Dida, we will be able to deploy retail. And just imagine the number of total agents [ph] that you have there and how good they are. But it also enables us to access the non -traditional players, which are very important in China and that they are very good at.
So, to make it clear, we always get into the first steps. But as we did for fintech and others, we have with this long -term partnership several steps that will go ahead and that we will keep announcing as we go through. Brendan Brennan: And I think, sorry, your first question, if I recall, was around the, what does returning to normal look like after that four -month dislocation period, yes. So, I think one of the big things, obviously, and what we saw was, and this will surprise no one in the room, in terms of our corridors, not only in the Middle East, but one of the more impacted corridors was Europe to Asia. And of course, that is very dependent on air travel through the UAE, to Qatar, to Saudi and other areas that, of course, we've all traveled thro ugh and become very accustomed to travel through. What we're saying is our expectation is that the general population or the general public are much more comfortable traveling back through those areas again. What I would say is that even in terms of if you look at the travel between Europe and Asia now, Istanbul has become a big hub now in terms of how people travel through these areas. So, people we always make the point that there is short -term dislocation in our business, but like water, it finds a w ay to flow to how it needs to get there. So, we do see demand being now rerouted. So, it's the combination of normality returning to the UAEs and no further strikes and all the very significant estate budget we're seeing, as well as these other hub areas really picking up and taking some of the previous volume that we were seeing traveling through the UAE territory. For us, that's probably the biggest corridor that's impacted or certainly one of the biggest pieces. UAE on its own and the Middle East, of course, is an important market and was a high growth market but relatively small in our overall business. The other factor we want to see, obviously, have a stabilizing effect is more certainty around jet fuel prices, of course, as well as you'd expect. And that, I think, is probably the biggest unknown at this point in terms of how that market will evolve over the next number of months with the Strait of Hormuz situation. Luka Trnovsek: Thank you. Christopher Tong: Hi, Chris from UBS. Maybe just one question from me. On the medium take rates, you mentioned that this half was impacted by the Middle East crisis and you said that the second half would be a bit better, that the decline would moderate a little bit. I guess when we think of next year, do y ou see that take rate decline moderating such that you shouldn't expect to see a big deterioration, or how should we think about this? Brendan Brennan: Yes, well, I mean, you'll have noted that we specifically maintained our midterm outlook in terms of the double -digit TTV growth or high single -digit revenue growth. We've had a
couple of years where we haven't been able to deliver upon that, obviously, with whether it be tariffs last year and obviously this year with Middle East issues. We do feel that the actions we've taken were necessary. We think it makes us more flexible as a business and a more fierce competitor in the marketplace, which we think is extremely important in terms of the market that we are in and making sure that we ma intain and develop our scale as a real, real big competitor in that space. But as we go into '27, our thesis hasn't significantly changed, i.e., that we can have a more flattened, if you like, decremental impact between TTV and revenue and that we should be able to maintain that mid -term guidance. Isabel Green: I think we've got clear in the room now. So, if we go to the conference call questions that we've got waiting in the queue, please. Can the conference call operator, can you open the line for questions, please? Operator: Your first question comes from the line of Guilhe is now open.
rme Sampaio of CaixaBank, BPI. Your line
Guilherme Sampaio: Hello. Thank you for taking my question. So, two, if I may. The first one, regarding your guidance. If my calculations are correct, your guidance implies some year over year OpEx growth in fiscal second half. Could you provide a bit more color on this? And second, I appreciate the color on TTV that you provide across the different regions, specifically on Middle East. But how should we expect take rate differences across regions to evolve in the second half of this year? Thank you. Brendan Brennan: So, I'll take -- I think I'll take both of those. But the first one, I believe, was around the cost -based development in the second half of the year. I would say predominantly what we're seeing is we make the point that we see -- continue to see good control in our cost -based. There is a slight differential in terms of on variable pay elements this year versus last year. We are seeing, as we talked about, a lot of good trajectory in ou r overall business. But probably the predominant piece is the additive element of the acquisitions that will have an impact in the second half of the year versus the first half of the year. As you guys know, we effectively did two acquisitions, both of which will really only impact from H2, perhaps saving the larger of those two, Bridgify being relatively small cost base. So, that's probably the biggest predominant change in terms of the cost base for the first half versus the second half. If I can just clarify on your second question, it was around the evolution of take rates by region? Guilherme Sampaio: Correct. So, take rate -- yes, so evolution across regions this half or in March and how should we expect this to evolve in the second half of the year? Brendan Brennan: Yes, we have seen it, as I said, the predominant elements around take rate and take rate movement are the elements that we put on our slide today, which was around more of the
mix around the distribution channels, as well as the lead times, as well as our mix of direct TPS. So, they're probably the biggest moving elements. That's why we carve them out specifically. We have seen good strong growth in our -- in Americas market, which is decent from a take rate perspective. And as well as, I suppose, one of the things that we pointed out, which is probably more of a negative on take rate in absolute terms, is we've seen more inter -regional channel rather than trans -regional channe ls. So, we're seeing more Europe to Europe, more Americas to Americas, less of the U.S. to Asia, less of the Europe to Asia. So, obviously for us, take rate is optimized when we see well -in -advance, well -curated trips that have multiple destinations and usually you're traveling from continent to continent. So, that is a negative impact, certainly. We don't see that really predominantly changing or having a significant impact in the second half versus the first half. I think the big pieces at play will p robably be thematically the same as we laid out in the slide for the first half of this year. Albeit, of course, we're coming into the summer period. And as you guys know from experience, we see a lot more volumes inter -regionally in just the summer months, particularly in Europe, which has a negative impact on take rate overall. Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Miguel Gonzalez of JB Capital. Your line is now open. Miguel Gonzalez: Yes. Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I got two, well three in my case. The first question on your exposure to Middle East, you mentioned an 8% guided exposure, but I wonder if you could quantify or give us an indication on your guided exposure related to Europe Asian corridors, which were affected by the conflict, whether this represents a meaningful share on your TTV for Europe.
-
And secondly, I want to understand why your working capital adjustment was negative in the first half. So, increasing the adjustment of the [ph] figure, well, last year in March was positive. I just want to understand the seasonality behind this adjustment and whether this difference is related to Middle E ast interruptions or higher third -party inventory perhaps. And also related to this, in your full year guidance, you cut slightly your cash conversion. Is it related to higher use of third -party inventory? And if so, could you give us an indication of how could this impact on DPO from this strategy, and if you hav e other mitigation factors maybe to compensate for this as mutual cards or anything else? Thank you. Brendan Brennan: Sure. Maybe I'll take questions two and three, Nicolas, and then we can cha about the mix of Europe and the inter -Europe -Asia impact on our overall business perspective.
t
You're quite right. We did see obviously an increase of EBITDA -- or our debt to EBITDA to 1.7 times by the end of the first half of the year. I was still very, very happy with our overall cash conversion. I
should say that in the 103% that we did for the trailing 12 months to the end of June. Still a very strong number and in line with our expectations. It is fair to say that as part of our commercial decision -making as well, we think about how do we use our balance sheet creatively to make sure that we're getting the kind of distribution relationships and other party in our SBA agreements, of course, you know that some of those are pre-funded as well. So, we certainly have used our balance sheet more in t he first six months of this year than maybe we have done traditionally. And I think that, in addition to some of the other cash outflows that were probably new to the business in terms of the share buyback program, specifically were probably elements that were additive, if you like, to the overall debt position as we came through the first half of the year. We still feel very, very comfortable with our overall position. To your point on the next part of your question, if you like, around the outlook for t he second half of the year and the 90% to 100% cash conversion targets that we've outlined now, no, I think that's probably more predominantly as a result of trading. If we as I said earlier on, if we weren't in a position where we had this Middle East con flict, we believe all of our metrics and guidance would stay where they initially were guided to. So, in the 2% to 7% range on EBITDA, but likewise on the cash conversion at about 100%. So, really, that impact of is just being a little more cautious. Of course, we will work to be at the top end of that range. And I want to emphasize that we will do our absolute best to make sure that we are at the top end of that range. But there is obviously some risk with the potential for a further disruption from Midd le East elements. Nicolas Huss: So, on the weight and the impact of the Middle East and Asia, I think we've quantified the impact very, very clearly. I mean, if you go back to what Brendan was saying, you have our numbers, you have the hypotheses that we 've worked on. So, I think the numbers here are very clear. Maybe let me give you context. So, if you remember where we were when we did the Q1 results, I mean, Asia is a and MEAPAC is, in general, is a region where we have invested a lot since the beginning of last year. We were very happy with the growth pre -conf lict. It was, if you remember, our fastest growing region by far. And the numbers that you see now are of course post -conflict impact, which has been massive as you see. And nevertheless, it's s till growing very nicely. So, very happy with that. We say that this is a region where we want to keep expanding both in sourcing, lot of efforts. Remember, we expand India, we expand Japan, et cetera But in distribution, specifically, we just mentioned China and Korea. So, altogether, we're in this region and we will keep on strengthening our efforts. I think the way we're managing the crisis is efficient. We're looking, of course, at the different risks, and we are really monitoring that. And I think th at we've been able to manage it very, very efficiently. But in a nutshell, to conclude, I think it's a very important region to us strategically. It is a key region to travel. We are working a lot on the diversification of the regional flows. I didn't mention that when we did Dida, but for instance, the top six cities of the Dida travels are located in Asia.
30% of their clients are actually traveling from China. So, for us, it also help us investing in terms of sourcing, networking, et cetera, key region despite the conflicts. Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Carlos J. Trevino of Banco Santander. Your line is now open. Carlos Trevino: Hi, good morning, and thanks for taking my question. Two questions, if I may. The first one, it will be regarding OpEx. Making some calculations at the midpoint of your guidance, I obtained that you are ass uming OpEx at around EUR 285 million for this year. Looking at the evolution of the first half and also considering that last year you were reducing OpEx at around EUR 24 million because lower variable compensation, I was wondering if you are assuming that you are coming back to normalized variable compensation in your guidance, or you think that looking at the current trade and evolution, perhaps this figure could be lower, so this has an impact in your OpEx? And my second question will be a new follow -up on the take rates. First one, on the non -trading factors impacting the take rate, I was wondering the impact, for example, coming from cancellations is something that you had seen in March and April, but we should see a normalization and this should not impact moving forward over the next month, or this could continue much more moving forward? And also on take rates, from a geographical point of view, while clearly the Middle East conflict is impacting the business in Asia, where you have lower take rat es, you are highlighting also that this is benefiting southern European countries, where I think your take rate is higher. I was wondering if we could see a significant positive impact from a geographical point of view in the day rate in the second half of the year? Thank you. Brendan Brennan: Thank you. I'll start with your OpEx question and we'll come back to your take rate and particularly your good point, which is a good point around the movement on the other items, if you like, that are impacting on the take rate evolution over time. So, on the OpEx, your I mean, as I made reference to, obviously, one of the biggest things that is increasing OpEx in the second half of the year is the addition of the new acquisitions that weren't previously in the business. That's the full impact of the PerfectStay predominantly in the second half of the year. I think it is fair to say that we have not I wouldn't say that the variable pay element is, you're quite right, we reduced it very significantly, effectively zeroed it last year as a result of performance. As we come into this year, we're still looking at that and we're still viewing it. So, there is an additional amount, absolutely, in the cost base this year for that. A lot of the factors are outside of contr ol this year. We think we are moving in the right direction. We're doing the right things. So, we want to have a bit more leverage on that particular point as we go through the course of the year. But of course, that will be dependent upon results and pe rformance in the second half of the year as well. So, we will judge it on that basis and either wind it down so it will be less of a differential, perhaps, than you're currently seeing in the midpoint, certainly, of the guidance.
Your point is a really good one in terms of the other elements of take rate where we have had those elevations and cancellations. We don't anticipate that to be as significant in the second half of the year versus the first half of the year. So, we do see that as one of those elements when we talked about the flattening out of take rates decline, that's certainly an element that's going to play well there. Nicolas Huss: No, I can just give the headlines and please help me with that. I think the you're rig We have a geo mix which has an impact on the take rate, and you followed us very well. We said that historically Asia was the lowest take rate. So, you're just combining and saying that as we add more southern European, we should improve. There is, all of this is absolutely true. There is one thing, if you remember, that we've explained again and again the difference between the summer in these regions versus the rest. So, you know that by definition the Mediterranean region, for instance, is more com petitive in the summer. We work with huge flows and usually lower margins. So, I wouldn't oversimplify the calculation. It's a complex one. We're spending a lot of time to build all of these mix together. And once again, we've tried to make it very clear, very transparent to you with this slide and this explanation that Brendan provided. Brendan Brennan: Yes, absolutely, I agree. Fully agreed. Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Thomas Pouitrieux of BNP Paribas. Your line is now open. Thomas Pouitrieux: Thank you. Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. I have a couple, maybe starting with supply your potential agreements, and I was wondering how they are evolving in the TTV mix. I think in the last couple of quarters, if I'm not mistaken, you've talked about having a good pipeline on new SPAs. So, was wondering if that's again increasing in the TTV mix? And if not, could it be maybe a tailwind to take rate later in the fiscal year? And secondly, it relates to the point you were making earlier, Brendan. On your balance sheet, I think trade repayments assets were about 30% year on year. Can you elaborate again a little bit on the dynamics here? Is it more related to SPAs maybe, or is it distributors financing? And does it relate t o many different suppliers/distributors, or is it concentrated into just a few of them? Thank you very much. Brendan Brennan: Sure. Maybe I'll start on the think, again, looking at that work capital mo what elements we were thinking about.
-- on your second point, if that's okay, which is, I vement, particularly in the first half of the year, and
I think the quick answer is, listen, we do both. We look at both the supply and distribution side of our business in terms of how we use our balance sheet. That is fair. It is true. I would say on the SPAs, particularly in this scenario, we're willing to s upport and we have seen and saw that through the past. We'll continue to do it. We think it's very additive to our overall margin mix. And I'm sure we'll talk t o that in the next point when we get to the second part of the question. So, it's certainly something we're going to continue to support.
ht.
It's fairly broad, I would say. We have quite a -- I mean, as we talked about it, we have numbers of thousands, circa 46,000 SPAs. So, it is something that's continues to develop and something where we will continue to use. And obviously, that proportion o f our business is meaningful in terms of EBITDA contribution. On the distribution side, yes, this is, I think, something I wouldn't say it's new to us as an organization, but certainly we have significantly increased our focus. And I've been delighted, q uite frankly, with the level of traction. We've seen some of the announcements that Nicolas has made earlier on today. Dida, particularly, has been in an extraordinary relationship. Despegar is -continues to be an extraordinary relationship. I talked abo ut that quadrupling in volumes from last year. So, yes, I think this is, I would say on the distribution side, it's more about significant relationships. And that's where we are supporting from a balance sheet perspective and gives us significant regiona l opportunity. Nicolas Huss: Maybe I do sourcing. Thank you for giving us the opportunity to update everyone on sourcing. Just for the sake of clarity, if you remember, we have four buckets, to keep it simple, based on differentiation and the value add that we bring. The first one is what we call primes and SPAs. This is where we have this very specific contractual relationship. It almost goes one by one. It's a negotiation. It's a longer -term commitment. And this part has been working actually better every time. We were -- on the 27th of Feb., we were having this deep dive review on SPAs, which are very important to us, differentiation but also margin. And we're saying that we were really getting on the good side of it. So, it was very positive. Of course, it's a part of our business. We didn't get into the detail which has been impacted a lot by the Middle East. For instance, we have, because of the five -star hotel concentration, et cetera, we have a very strong share of SPAs there. So, that's so meth ing that we see that actually the SPAs being impacted in Asia altogether. But we know that the trend would remain good because we will of course recover from that. Then we have the second bucket, which is select. You remember we started last year, this full automation, digitalization, AI enablement, where rather than having a people -intensive activity, we want to have all of this optimized. It was one of the big bets and initiative that we took last year, if you remember. And it's being very nicely. I mea n, all of the rationalization, regional deployment, concentration is done. We're moving into the AI enablement and we're having the date with Brendan with these guys last week, I think, in one of our monthly business reviews and it's working very nicely. At the end of the spectrum, TPS is flying. As you've seen, we've invested a lot over the past 12 months. We're very happy with the results. It's working better every day. But what you will see that it should work much, much, much better, three time much n ext year, as we're investing into a lot of new connections that will bring us literally dozen of thousands of hotel that we will make accessible to our partners. So, keep an eye on this because it will pay off even nicely.
le of questions online. I'd like to
Brendan Brennan: Short answers. Isabel Green: Short answers, quickfire round. The first is a three -part question from one of our analysts, Nizla Naizer from Deutsche Bank. Can you remind us the FX impact in 2026? Specifically, she's looking at EBITDA. What happens to outlook if the confl ict prolongs beyond June? And do you expect a positive impact from the World Cup in the U.S. over the summer? Nicolas Huss: I'll leave you with the two serious one, I'll take the last funny one. Brendan Brennan: Sure. Yes, 2% is a quick answer. We said 2% was a headwind to our revenue and our EBITDA as we came into this year. So, that's that point. The second question was sorry, Isabel, my brain is -Isabel Green: What happens to the outlook if the conflict prolongs? Brendan Brennan: Yes, of course, yes, yes. So, I mean, obviously what we're saying is we've been very specific. It's four months is what we model in with a gradual return to normality there afterwards. If it continues for a six -month conflict, that is that -- some of that is in our rang e, but it just depends on the level of conflict, to be honest. We want to see some level of normalization before the end of the year. That's not to say that if we, if it continues in the way, in the vein that it's going, I think our current range covers that at the lower end. However, if it escalates, I think that's when it, possibly there's additional risks. Nicolas Huss: So, on the U.S. and the World Cup, I'll take it because it will, I give you the very short answer on the World Cup and then use it t o pass on a few messages on the U.S. altogether. So, it's working as usual. These big events, Olympic Games in Paris or now the World Cup, for us, it's very specific because the federations and the big companies, they come, they grab, they pre -book the hotels. And as we get closer or very close to the da te, then they say, well, we don't need it, and then they free it up. And then this is where the machine starts. And where we have to, in the last minute, start relocating and all of this and making sure th at they will be sold. And the hotel, they trust us a lot with that. We did a great job in Paris, you remember. We did not such a good job in Qatar with a very different setup, not such a big cities where we probably didn't have the connection.
The U.S. is a country where we have invested a lot over last year. You'll remember that we grew massively post -COVID and then '24 was a stabilization year. '25, we started this tiering strategy that I've explained here, expanding into tier two, tier three, building on distribution. And the U.S., I don't know, I can say that probably it's flying. Brendan Brennan: Yes. Nicolas Huss: I mean, the numbers are just amazing right now. So, we see that this strategy, this investment is paying off, which then help ed me to look back to the World Cup. To keep it simple, we're certain that as we get closer to the World Cup, we'll keep selling more and more rooms there. Isabel Green: Thank you. I've got two more strategic questions to finish us off with today. Firstly, can we have some -- a bit more detailed examples of how the balance sheet is being used for new partnerships and hotel sourcing? Nicolas Huss: Maybe I can, sorry, if you allow me because we never say that. But I start with the M&A like what we've been doing. I think we've tried to bring the bricks together. I mean, PerfectStay is about dynamic packaging. Civitfun, it's about making sure that we get into the hotel systems, PMS's, et cetera, and we create a frictionless relationship. If you remember, I could keep on with the others, no? But -- and here we've tried to do that on a clearer way from a cash allocation perspective. And you may have seen that the structure is usually not to pay a lot of money upfront, but to build these base d on success, et cetera, success together, which is very important. You want to go into the others, yes? Brendan Brennan: I think the structural point on this one is, and to give the -- to specifically speak to the question. So, what we see is that on si gnificant distribution relationships, usually there are preexisting relationships. And so, there is an element of volume that goes through the business as a consequence of that. So, we can often look at these relationships in terms of, well, what kind of upfront investment do we need to do in the relationship? But the growth that we substantially see, and we've seen this very, very meaningfully with Despegar is a really good example, comes usually 18 months or a year or 18 months into it. So, it's about m aking sure that we have done the investment in the first place with them, that it could be helping to build out a almost joint venture like type structure in the place where we're going to be working with them in a much more detailed way. And so, that does require some upfront investment. And we sometimes use our balance sheet to capitalize on that. And oftentimes, you're seeing building of revenues there afterwards with significant benefit to come in the outer year. So, your upfront investment with the p romise of significant growth there afterwards. I hope that helps. Nicolas Huss: Last one you said. Isabel Green: Last one. And it's a fairly specific but direct question. Are you looking for or pursuing any fintech partnerships in APAC?
Nicolas Huss: Oh, listen, we are definitely looking to expand fintech. I think it's one of our success. You may have noted that for one of the first time we gave you an indication of what all of these new businesses are really bringing together consolidate d, and they are evolving very nicely. You've seen that we've developed our fintech approach by partnership. I explained Outpayce, Mastercard, but there has been others, if you remember. And will come a point where we will have to see if this partnership strategy good enough to where we want to go, or will we need to start building up on some other approach. We're not yet there, but it might be a question for the coming years possibly. We're done. Thank you very much for your time. Brendan Brennan: Thank you. Nicolas Huss: It's been quite a good session. Thank you very much.
Company presentation
27 pages · use arrow keys or swipe to navigate