AGO · Assured Guaranty Ltd
$75.23
-0.30 (-0.40%)
At close · Aug 19
Market Cap
$3.32B
Shares
43.98M
Price & Indicators
20d MA
50d MA
200d MA
Earnings
Filing
Insider
Congress
Investor day
Close$75.23
Open$75.77
Day$74.92–76.88
52W close$73.20–92.18
Avg vol 30d324K
Short int1.9M · 4.3% float · 5.9d
Short vol46%
Last earningsAug 6, 2026
DataJan 2020–Aug 2026
Filing10-Q · Aug 7
Up next
Next earnings call
Nov 5, 2026
Est · unconfirmed
· in 11 wks
FQ3-26 quarter ends
~Sep 30, 2026
Est
filed Aug 7, 2026
AI Brief
TL;DR.
Bullish
Bearish
From the call
AI-generated from the earnings call and 8-K · may contain errors · not investment advice
Ask ALVIS about this →Equibles Rating
blended score · not investment adviceOverall
Sell
SellHoldBuy
Technical
Strong Sell
Momentum
Very Weak
Sentiment
Neutral
Fundamentals
Strong
Quant / Vol
Low
Market backdrop
VIX 14.9 · calm
Equity put/call 0.64
Technical
price trend
50 / 200-day cross
No cross
Price vs 200-day avg
−10%
below
Price vs 50-day avg
−6%
below
RSI (14)
33
neutral
MACD trend
Negative
52-week position
11%
near low
Volume (OBV)
Confirms
volume backs price
Momentum
relative strength
1-month return
−11%
trailing
6-month return
−13%
trailing
YTD return
−16%
this year
Relative strength
−24%
vs S&P · 6-mo
Sentiment
smart money
Trend (MA cross)
No cross
50d $80 › 200d $83 — 200d above 50d
Institutional flow
Distributing
-1% holders QoQ · +58 funds added
Insider flow
Distributing
Net -$77.8K over 90 days · 100% sells
Short interest
Falling
4.32% of float · ▼ -1.5% MoM · 5.9 days cover
Volume signal
Normal
Volume near normal
Institution breadth
Multi-yr high
369 holders — near 3-yr high, broad support
Squeeze score
59
elevated · 0–100
Fundamentals
Revenue growth
+27%
Y/Y
EPS growth
+49%
Y/Y
Valuation
P/E 10
in line
Buyback
$121.0M
remaining
Balance sheet
$1.7B
net debt
Quant / Vol
risk profile
Volatility
24%
annualized · 1-yr
Max drawdown
−21%
past year
ATR
2.5%
of price · 14-day
Blended from price, momentum, positioning, fundamentals & volatility · daily-close · not investment advice. Market backdrop is context, not part of the score.
Guidance & track record
Latest guidance
· from the Earnings Call filed Dec 31, 2023
Effective GAAP tax rate
· going forward
GAAP
16% – 18%
Prior guidance
period ended
· from the Earnings Call filed Sep 30, 2024
Share repurchases
· this year
$500M
Share repurchases
· next year
$500M
Guidance from company 8-Ks · delivered figures from as-reported statements · no analyst estimates involved.
Technicals
trend & momentum for long-term holders Strong Sell
50 / 200-day cross
No cross
Neutral
Price vs 200-day avg
−10%
Bearish
Price vs 50-day avg
−6%
Bearish
RSI (14)
33
Neutral
MACD trend
Negative
Bearish
52-week position
11%
Bearish
Volume (OBV)
Confirms
Neutral
Market signals — smart money & positioning
Mixed
Trend (MA cross)
No cross
50d $80 › 200d $83 — 200d above 50d
Institutional flow
Distributing
-1% holders QoQ · +58 funds added
Insider flow
Distributing
Net -$77.8K over 90 days · 100% sells
Short interest
Falling
4.32% of float · ▼ -1.5% MoM · 5.9 days cover
Volume signal
Normal
Volume near normal
Institution breadth
Multi-yr high
369 holders — near 3-yr high, broad support
Price context
position in its 52-week range
Range low $73
Now $75 · 11%
Range high $92
vs 200-day avg -10%
vs 50-day avg -6%
Illustrative technical + ownership context — a signal mix, not investment advice.
Key metrics
the company's own KPIs, from written earnings releases and filings| Metric | Latest | Period | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted book value (ABV) non-GAAP | $8.36B | As of June 30, 2026 | — |
GAAP → non-GAAP reconciliationGAAP Adjusted operating shareholders' equity $5.72B
-$201M Less: DAC
+$188M Plus: Net present value of estimated net future revenue
+$3.31B Plus: Net deferred revenues on insurance contracts
-$658M Plus taxes
= Adjusted book value (ABV) $8.36B
|
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| Adjusted book value (ABV) per share non-GAAP | $189.72 | As of June 30, 2026 | — |
| Adjusted operating income non-GAAP | $170M | Six Months Ended June 30, 2026 | — |
|
|
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| Adjusted operating income per diluted share non-GAAP | $1.23 | Q2 2026 | — |
| Adjusted operating ROE non-GAAP | 5.9% | Six Months Ended June 30, 2026 | — |
|
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| Adjusted operating shareholders' equity non-GAAP | $5.72B | As of June 30, 2026 | — |
GAAP → non-GAAP reconciliationGAAP Shareholders' equity attributable to AGL $5.56B
-$52M Non-credit impairment-related fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
-$20M Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
+$258M Unrealized gains (losses) on investment portfolio
+$5M Fair value gains (losses) of freestanding derivatives in the Annuity Reinsurance segment
+$1M Fair value gains (losses) of the embedded derivative in funds withheld
-$27M Less taxes
= Adjusted operating shareholders' equity $5.72B
|
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| Adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share non-GAAP | $129.94 | As of June 30, 2026 | — |
GAAP → non-GAAP reconciliationGAAP Shareholders' equity attributable to AGL per share $126.18
-$1.18 Non-credit impairment-related fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
-$0.46 Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
+$5.87 Unrealized gains (losses) on investment portfolio
+$0.12 Fair value gains (losses) of freestanding derivatives in the Annuity Reinsurance segment
+$0.03 Fair value gains (losses) of the embedded derivative in funds withheld
-$0.62 Less taxes
= Adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share $129.94
|
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| Asset management adjusted operating loss non-GAAP | $4M | second quarter 2026 | — |
| Authorized remaining share repurchase capacity | $121M | As of August 5, 2026 | — |
| Capital returned to shareholders | $62M | Q2 2026 | — |
|
|
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| Capital returned to shareholders (year-to-date share repurchases) | $130M | Total 2026 (through August 5, 2026) | — |
| Common share repurchases | $45M | Three Months Ended June 30, 2026 | — |
|
|
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| Corporate Division adjusted operating income (loss) non-GAAP | -$28M | Quarter Ended June 30, 2026 | — |
| Financial guaranty claims-paying resources | $9.98B | As of June 30, 2026 | — |
| Financial guaranty net debt service outstanding | $446.6B | As of June 30, 2026 | — |
| Financial guaranty net par outstanding | $281.4B | As of June 30, 2026 | — |
| Financial guaranty net par outstanding - Below-investment-grade (BIG) | $8.5B | As of June 30, 2026 | — |
| Financial guaranty net par outstanding - Investment grade | $272.9B | As of June 30, 2026 | — |
| Gross Par Written | $8.35B | Q2 2026 | — |
|
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| Gross written premiums (GWP) | $81M | Q2 2026 | — |
|
|
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| Present value of new business production (PVP) non-GAAP | $79M | Q2 2026 | — |
|
|
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| Share repurchases | $45M | Q2 2026 | — |
|
|
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| Shares outstanding at the end of the period | 44.1M | As of June 30, 2026 | — |
| Shares repurchased (year-to-date) | 1.56M | Total 2026 (through August 5, 2026) | — |
| Shares repurchased | 5.8M | FY 2025 | — |
| U.S. municipal bond insurance market share | 58.5% | FY 2025 | — |
Figures exactly as the company stated them in writing · click a metric with a to chart its history · period links open the stating document · "filing" marks figures stated in the 10-K/10-Q · YoY needs an exactly comparable prior-year period
Versus peers
Insurance - Specialty — same industry group| Company | Mkt cap | YTD | Rev growth Y/Y | P/E | Short % shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AGO
this stock
Assured Guaranty Ltd
|
$3.32B | -16.3% | +27.3% | 10.0 | 4.3% |
|
FNF
Fidelity National Financial, Inc.
|
$12.99B | -11.2% | +5.6% | — | 3.4% |
|
RYAN
Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc.
|
$10.63B | -20.1% | +21.3% | — | 5.2% |
|
FAF
First American Financial Corp
|
$7.46B | +18.5% | +21.6% | 10.1 | 5.8% |
|
AXS
Axis Capital Holdings Ltd
|
$7.43B | -5.9% | +10.2% | 7.5 | 2.7% |
Peers by industry group · P/E from as-reported trailing EPS · short % is of shares outstanding
At a glance
key data from every sectionOwnership
Short & Settlement
Smart Money
Financials
Filings
Earnings & Events
Performance
| 5D | 20D | 120D | MTD | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGO | +0.6% | -10.9% | -13.2% | -9.1% | -16.3% |
| SPY | -0.4% | +2.6% | +10.7% | +2.7% | +12.5% |
| vs SPY | +1.0% | -13.5% | -23.9% | -11.8% | -28.8% |
Capital returns
Latest dividend
$0.38
/ share · ex Aug 20, 2026
Paid (TTM)
$1.14
/ share · 3 payouts
Dividend yield (TTM, derived)
1.52%
Buyback program
· as of Aug 5, 2026
Authorized
$300.00M
Spent (derived)
$179.00M
Remaining
$121.00M
Spent
Remaining
Dividends per share over the trailing 365 days by ex-date · buyback figures as last reported in SEC filings ("spent" derived as authorized − remaining; when several programs run concurrently, authorized is their combined total per the newest filing) · components shown separately — trailing-year buyback spend isn't tracked, so no combined shareholder yield is derived.
Key facts
CIK
1273813
CUSIP
G0585R106
13F (30d)
334 filings
330 filers
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