HCC · Warrior Met Coal, Inc.
$105.05
+7.31 (+7.48%)
At close · Aug 19
Market Cap
$5.55B
Shares
52.80M
Price & Indicators
20d MA
50d MA
200d MA
Earnings
Filing
Insider
Congress
Investor day
Close$105.05
Open$100.00
Day$99.79–105.76
52W close$55.15–110.28
Avg vol 30d646K
Short int4.5M · 8.6% float · 6.3d
Short vol67%
Last earningsAug 5, 2026
DataJan 2020–Aug 2026
Filing10-Q · Aug 5
Up next
Next earnings call
Nov 7, 2026
Est · unconfirmed
· in 11 wks
FQ3-26 quarter ends
~Sep 30, 2026
Est
filed Aug 5, 2026
AI Brief
TL;DR.
Bullish
Bearish
From the call
AI-generated from the earnings call and 8-K · may contain errors · not investment advice
Ask ALVIS about this →Equibles Rating
blended score · not investment adviceOverall
Neutral
SellHoldBuy
Technical
Buy
Momentum
Very Strong
Sentiment
Bearish
Fundamentals
Strong
Quant / Vol
Very High
Market backdrop
VIX 14.9 · calm
Equity put/call 0.52
Technical
price trend
50 / 200-day cross
Death cross
Price vs 200-day avg
+20%
above
Price vs 50-day avg
+22%
above
RSI (14)
75
overbought
MACD trend
Positive
52-week position
91%
near high
Volume (OBV)
Confirms
volume backs price
Momentum
relative strength
1-month return
+26%
trailing
6-month return
+24%
trailing
YTD return
+19%
this year
Relative strength
+12%
vs S&P · 6-mo
Sentiment
smart money
Trend (MA cross)
Death cross
50d $86 › 200d $87 — 200d above 50d
Institutional flow
Distributing
-1% holders QoQ · +58 funds added
Insider flow
Flat
No net insider activity over 90 days
Short interest
Rising
8.61% of float · ▲ +16.3% MoM · 6.3 days cover
Volume signal
Normal
Volume near normal
Institution breadth
Multi-yr high
344 holders — near 3-yr high, broad support
Squeeze score
81
high risk · 0–100
Fundamentals
Revenue growth
−14%
Y/Y
EPS growth
−77%
Y/Y
Free cash flow
$24.0M
Buyback
$59.4M
remaining
Balance sheet
$145.7M
net cash
Quant / Vol
risk profile
Volatility
53%
annualized · 1-yr
Max drawdown
−30%
past year
ATR
4.1%
of price · 14-day
Blended from price, momentum, positioning, fundamentals & volatility · daily-close · not investment advice. Market backdrop is context, not part of the score.
Guidance & track record
Latest guidance
· from the 8-K filed Aug 5, 2026
Cash cost of sales (free-on-board port)
· full year 2026
Initiated
$95 – $105
Selling, general and administrative expenses
· full year 2026
Initiated
$75M – $85M
Capital expenditures for Blue Creek project
· full year 2026
Initiated
$50M – $75M
Depreciation and depletion
· full year 2026
Initiated
$225M – $250M
Interest income
· full year 2026
Initiated
$3M – $8M
Interest expense
· full year 2026
Initiated
$20M – $25M
Prior guidance
period ended
· from the 8-K filed Nov 5, 2025
Cash cost of sales (free-on-board port) per short ton
· full year 2025
$105 – $110
Capital expenditures for sustaining existing mines
· full year 2025
$90M – $100M
Capital expenditures for Blue Creek project
· full year 2025
$225M – $250M
Depreciation and depletion
· full year 2025
$185M – $210M
Mine development costs for Blue Creek project
· full year 2025
$85M – $100M
Selling, general and administrative expenses
· full year 2025
$65M – $75M
Interest expense
· full year 2025
$10M – $15M
Interest income
· full year 2025
$15M – $20M
Guidance from company 8-Ks · delivered figures from as-reported statements · no analyst estimates involved.
Technicals
trend & momentum for long-term holders Buy
50 / 200-day cross
Death cross
Bearish
Price vs 200-day avg
+20%
Bullish
Price vs 50-day avg
+22%
Bullish
RSI (14)
75
Bearish
MACD trend
Positive
Bullish
52-week position
91%
Bullish
Volume (OBV)
Confirms
Neutral
Market signals — smart money & positioning
Bearish · 3 of 6
Trend (MA cross)
Death cross
50d $86 › 200d $87 — 200d above 50d
Institutional flow
Distributing
-1% holders QoQ · +58 funds added
Insider flow
Flat
No net insider activity over 90 days
Short interest
Rising
8.61% of float · ▲ +16.3% MoM · 6.3 days cover
Volume signal
Normal
Volume near normal
Institution breadth
Multi-yr high
344 holders — near 3-yr high, broad support
Price context
position in its 52-week range
Range low $55
Now $105 · 91%
Range high $110
vs 200-day avg +20%
vs 50-day avg +22%
50-day below 200-day death cross
Illustrative technical + ownership context — a signal mix, not investment advice.
Key metrics
the company's own KPIs, from written earnings releases and filings| Metric | Latest | Period | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA non-GAAP | $300.26M | six months ended June 30, 2026 | — |
|
|
|||
GAAP → non-GAAP reconciliationGAAP Net income (loss) $159.77M
+$3.97M Interest expense (income), net
+$10.15M Income tax expense (benefit)
+$110.57M Depreciation and depletion
+$2.23M Asset retirement obligation accretion
+$12.58M Stock compensation expense
+$990K Other non-cash actuarial accretion
+$0K Non-cash mark-to-market (gain) loss on gas hedges
+$11K Business interruption
= Adjusted EBITDA $300.26M
|
|||
| Adjusted EBITDA margin non-GAAP | 31% | six months ended June 30, 2026 | — |
| Adjusted EBITDA per short ton non-GAAP | $45.11 | six months ended June 30, 2026 | — |
| Average net selling price | $143.04 | six months ended June 30, 2026 | — |
|
|
|||
| Cash cost of sales (free-on-board port) per short ton non-GAAP | $94.17 | six months ended June 30, 2026 | — |
|
|
|||
| Cash margin per ton non-GAAP | $48.87 | six months ended June 30, 2026 | — |
| Free cash flow non-GAAP | $11.5M | six months ended June 30, 2026 | — |
GAAP → non-GAAP reconciliationGAAP Net cash provided by operating activities $120.55M
-$109.05M Purchases of property, plant and equipment and mine development costs
= Free cash flow $11.5M
|
|||
| Free cash flow conversion non-GAAP | 3.8% | six months ended June 30, 2026 | — |
| Inventory levels | 1.4M | as of June 30, 2026 | — |
| Sales volumes | 3.7M | Q2 2026 | — |
|
|
|||
| Steelmaking coal production | 3.3M | Q2 2026 | — |
|
|
|||
| Tons produced | 6.84M | six months ended June 30, 2026 | — |
| Tons sold | 6.66M | six months ended June 30, 2026 | — |
| Total liquidity | $452.9M | as of June 30, 2026 | — |
| Free cash flows non-GAAP | -$91.9M | first quarter of 2026 | — |
| Blue Creek steelmaking coal sales | 1.5M | full year 2025 | — |
| Production | 10.2M | full year 2025 | — |
Figures exactly as the company stated them in writing · click a metric with a to chart its history · period links open the stating document · "filing" marks figures stated in the 10-K/10-Q · YoY needs an exactly comparable prior-year period
Versus peers
Coking Coal — same industry group| Company | Mkt cap | YTD | Rev growth Y/Y | P/E | Short % shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
HCC
this stock
Warrior Met Coal, Inc.
|
$5.55B | +19.1% | -14.1% | 25.3 | 8.6% |
|
AMR
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.
|
$2.15B | -2.7% | -28.0% | — | 13.2% |
|
METC
Ramaco Resources, Inc.
|
$775.24M | -33.0% | -19.5% | — | 21.0% |
|
SXC
SunCoke Energy, Inc.
|
$772.79M | +31.4% | +10.3% | — | 4.0% |
|
CODQL
Coronado Global Resources Inc.
|
$30.53M | -15.3% | -22.2% | — | 2.1% |
Peers by industry group · P/E from as-reported trailing EPS · short % is of shares outstanding
At a glance
key data from every sectionOwnership
Short & Settlement
Financials
Filings
Earnings & Events
Performance
| 5D | 20D | 120D | MTD | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HCC | +8.6% | +26.4% | +24.1% | +32.3% | +19.1% |
| SPY | -0.4% | +2.9% | +11.6% | +3.0% | +12.8% |
| vs SPY | +9.1% | +23.5% | +12.5% | +29.3% | +6.4% |
Capital returns
Latest dividend
$0.08
/ share · ex Aug 10, 2026
Paid (TTM)
$0.32
/ share · 4 payouts
Dividend yield (TTM, derived)
0.30%
Buyback programs
· 2 active
· as of Jun 30, 2026
Authorized (total)
$110.00M
Spent (derived)
$50.60M
Remaining
$59.40M
Spent
Remaining
Dividends per share over the trailing 365 days by ex-date · buyback figures as last reported in SEC filings ("spent" derived as authorized − remaining; when several programs run concurrently, authorized is their combined total per the newest filing) · components shown separately — trailing-year buyback spend isn't tracked, so no combined shareholder yield is derived.