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Astronics Corp Q3 FY2020 Earnings Call

Astronics Corp (ATRO)

Earnings Call FY2020 Q3 Call date: 2020-10-30 Concluded

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Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Astronics Corporation Third Quarter 2020 Financial Results Call. At this time all participants are in listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Deb Pawlowski, Investor Relations for Astronics Corporation. Thank you, you may begin.

Deborah Pawlowski Head of Investor Relations

Thanks, Melissa, and good morning, everyone. We certainly appreciate your time today and your interest in Astronics. Joining me on the call are Peter Gundermann, our Chairman, President, CEO; and David Burney, our Chief Financial Officer. You should have a copy of the third quarter 2020 financial results and the contract that was released this morning. And if not, you can find them on our website at astronics.com. Let me mention first that we may make some forward-looking statements during this formal discussion as well as during the Q&A session. These statements apply to future events that are subject to risks and uncertainties as well as other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from what is stated here today. These risks and uncertainties and other factors are provided in the earnings release as well as with other documents filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These documents can be found on our website or at sec.gov. During today's call, we will also discuss some non-GAAP financial measures. We believe that these will be useful in evaluating our performance and should not consider the presentation of this additional information in isolation or as a substitute for results in accordance with GAAP. We have provided reconciliations of non-GAAP measures, comparable GAAP measures in the tables that accompany today's release. So with that, let me turn it over to Pete to begin. Pete?

Peter Gundermann Chairman

Thank you, Debbie and good morning, everybody. Thank you for joining us. Our agenda today is to first and foremost talk about our third quarter, which was a very light quarter, heavily impacted by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. We will talk a little bit about what we see happening in the future. We're coming up on the end of the year here. So the fourth quarter is something we can talk about with some level of certainty. We will review our major market segments or perspectives on the market and then we'll open it up for questions and answers. Before we get going, just a quick review of our major overlying goals of the company as we work through our current situation. We have the ongoing objective of protecting our employees and the safety of our workplace. I think we're doing a pretty good job there. In general, we've learned to deal with a pandemic and work from home and all the stuff that comes along with it. We have little interruptions here and there, but for the most part, we continue to function and continue to operate pretty well. We certainly want to keep serving our customers with the level of service and productivity that they expect and need. That's been a little bit of an exercise through the pandemic as the goalposts keep moving, sometimes in, sometimes out. But I think we're doing a pretty good job, in general, staying in front of our customers' requirements, which is important. Finally, we want to position the company not only for survival during the pandemic, but for success afterwards. We are not optimizing the company for our current level of volume or what the market is giving us currently, but we're keeping an eye on where we expect to be on the other side of this as the markets recover as we believe they surely will. That being said, digging into the third quarter, it was a very difficult quarter, very light, heavily impacted by COVID-19 in the vast majority of our business. As a reminder, in normal times 2019 before the pandemic hit, 70% of our revenue also came from the commercial transport industry, both line fit production of new aircraft and the aftermarket servicing airlines and leasing companies. That has been a pretty good place for us to be over the last decade or more. But during a pandemic when people stopped traveling, that's a pretty tough place to be. When we last spoke, we were beginning to see a resurgence of air travel domestically anyway in the US in the July-August timeframe. And we had the hope at the time that that resurgence was going to continue and strengthen through year-end; that has not happened. We'll talk more about that later on in the call here. But our core market, our commercial transport market has largely stagnated since that time in terms of flights and passengers up modestly, but not where we thought it would be. And not where most people in the industry thought it would be. With that as a backdrop, our revenue for the quarter was $106.5 million, that's as low as we've been since back in 2013. Down 40% year-over-year, down 13% sequentially from the second quarter. Our aerospace segment, which in normal times is 90% of our business, was responsible for all the drop, down 48% year over year. Our test business, normally 10% of our business, was actually up 37% year over year, excluding the semiconductor business that we sold a year ago. That increase in test is a function of consistent and robust government spending also aided by a couple of acquisitions that we did, smaller acquisitions in 2019. Fortunately, we implemented a number of cost-saving measures as the pandemic took hold. These are a little bit old news at this point, so I'm not going to go through them in detail. We figure today when we look at the way our company is structured, we took about $160 million of costs out of our business from where we thought we would be when we entered 2020, which seems like a long time ago now. These cost-saving measures make our income statements look somewhat tolerable; GAAP loss was a negative $5.2 million or 4.9% of sales. Our adjusted EBITDA was just about breakeven, Dave will talk about adjustments in a second. Cash from operations was a negative $10 million, something we're a little bit disappointed by, but we think we're coming to grips with as our business stabilizes at the current level. Bookings during the quarter saw a slight uptick of $81.6 million, that's fairly significant on a percentage basis, but it goes from small disappointing bookings in the second quarter to mildly less disappointing bookings in the third quarter. But it's going the right way. We feel that we've experienced some destocking effect, as OEMs settle down at reduced production rates. We continue to see a pretty weak aftermarket in commercial transport. We'll talk about that a little bit later in the call. One positive aspect in the business, in general, is represented by a program that we announced earlier today from a customer called Xenex. A $20 million order, which is not exactly mainstream aerospace business for us, but is a compliment to some of the design capabilities that we offer the world in general and are now complimenting with contract manufacturing services. We also announced earlier this week, a pretty good order for the Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority, or our customers, specifically Stadler, that's a $30 million program. For those who keep track of such things, the Xenex order was included in our third quarter bookings totals; the Marta-Stadler order was not, that's a fourth-quarter booking. So that'll show up in our fourth quarter numbers when we release them at the end of the year. I think with that, I will turn it over to Dave to go through some details on our income statement and balance sheet and financing, and then I'll come back and talk about how we see our markets in general. Dave?

Thanks, Pete. Really, for the quarter was a pretty straightforward quarter. Not a whole lot of commentary from me, but walking through the operating results for the quarter, we had GAAP net loss of $5.3 million. That's net of an income tax benefit of $5.8 million, and a GAAP pre-tax loss of $11.1 million, and sales of $106.5 million, which as Pete mentioned was our lowest level of sales since 2013. For the first time in a few quarters, we didn't have any large reserves or accruals affecting the quarter. The loss was simply a function of the low sales level for the quarter and representative of our margin profile and our current cost structure at this time. Roughly speaking, our EBITDA breakeven point is about this level of sales, but it can vary subject to mix changes. The $6.3 million aerospace segment operating loss is reflective of the low sales level during the quarter, and our cost structure which supports our current product development initiatives, and an expectation that revenues will increase over the coming quarters. The test segment margins were lower than expected primarily due to higher legal costs and inventory reserve that, combined, total $1.3 million. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was roughly breakeven, as I mentioned at a $55,000 loss. And the adjusted EBITDA is reconciled to net income in a table on Page 11 of our press release. Regarding our liquidity. Managing liquidity is critical as we bridge to recovery. To that end, we believe we can hover around cash flow, breakeven and positive EBITDA at our current cost model over the foreseeable future, assuming no further declines in our markets. For the third quarter, cash flow from operations was a negative $10 million for the quarter and positive $31.5 million year-to-date. The negative cash flow from operations during the quarter was driven by net working capital increase that used $5.3 million of cash. Our challenge during the rapid downturn in the sales since the start of the pandemic has been to renegotiate purchase commitments for raw materials. Slowing down incoming raw material inventory continues to be a struggle, with raw material inventory increasing by $8.7 million during the quarter, and $20.5 million year-to-date. We're contractually obligated for these commitments to purchase minimum volumes of certain high volume, long lead items. These commitments were made generally during the fourth quarter of 2019 prior to the pandemic and based on our sales forecast and backlog at that time, which were based on our pre-pandemic run rates. Our supply chain teams across the company have been working extremely hard with our key suppliers to renegotiate delivery schedules and commitments and continue to do so and have been successful in many cases helping to dampen the impact. Nevertheless, there was such a significant drop in aerospace sales; the result is this buildup of raw material inventory. We expect that we will ultimately consume these raw materials, and we're forecasting that the current level of inventory is stabilizing and expect inventory levels to drop as we move through 2021 consuming the excess on-hand material as we adjust our purchase commitments into 2021. Switching to CapEx for the quarter, it was just $1.7 million, bringing year-to-date CapEx expenditures to $5.6 million. We expect we will have another $2 million or so in CapEx in the fourth quarter in 2021. Right now, we're looking at a CapEx spend rate of about $11 million. Our outstanding balance on a revolver at the end of the quarter was $168 million. We had cash of $29.9 million, giving us net debt of $138.1 million or about 2.5x trailing four-quarter adjusted EBITDA as calculated by our credit agreement. I'll touch a little bit to remind the listeners on our amended credit facility that we amended back in May. The facility matures in February 2023, and it's a $375 million revolving credit facility. The key financial covenants of the facility as it's amended is that the maximum leverage covenant was waived until the third quarter of 2021 referred to as a suspension period. Then it begins phasing in starting at 6x EBITDA as defined in the agreement and then decreasing to 5.5x in the fourth quarter of 2021. There's currently two key financial covenants during the suspension period: a minimum liquidity and a minimum interest coverage ratio. We're required to maintain a minimum liquidity of $108 million. And liquidity is defined as cash plus the undrawn balance on the revolver. We have roughly $57 million of liquidity or negative cash flow cushion available as of the end of the quarter. We're also required to maintain an interest coverage ratio of 1.75x adjusted EBITDA as defined in the agreement, with the exception of the first quarter of 2021, which is set at 1.5x. Other covenants include temporary restrictions on acquisitions, shareholder repurchases, and dividends. And we're currently on the pricing grid playing LIBOR plus 225 basis points with a LIBOR floor of 100 basis points. So that equates to about a 3.25% interest rate right now. That's all I had for my prepared remarks. Pete, back to you.

Peter Gundermann Chairman

Thank you, Dave. We will evaluate our markets and discuss some points from the press release, so there may be some repetition. Starting with commercial aerospace, it is our largest market, accounting for about 70% of our business in 2019. This includes the production and maintenance of new airplanes, with around two-thirds of that tied primarily to Boeing and Airbus production and one-third related to aftermarket services, mainly for airlines and leasing companies. Currently, production rates for line fit by Boeing and Airbus have been reduced by approximately 30% to 50%. A particular concern for us is the 737 MAX, which remains uncertified, resulting in a complete halt for us on that program. Last year, it was our largest production program. It's crucial to note that everyone expects the MAX to be recertified soon, allowing Boeing to resume significant production, which we hope will positively influence our business in the latter half of next year. The aftermarket business, driven by airline expenditure, focuses on in-flight entertainment and connectivity, as well as passenger amenities. Airlines are facing tough challenges globally, operating around 50% of their flights compared to this time last year, with load factors decreasing and 40% of the fleet grounded. International flights remain limited due to travel restrictions, quarantine policies, and concerns regarding virus transmission in aircraft. However, we're optimistic about the situation in China, where flight levels are rebounding to normal. Many believe that similar recoveries could occur worldwide as the pandemic is managed. There are emerging testing protocols and quarantine agreements from airlines that could facilitate international travel in the near future. We anticipate commercial transport sales will stabilize at these lower production rates, with the 737 remaining critical to our expectations for 2021. The aftermarket is expected to stay subdued until airlines see a recovery in traffic, though experts are predicting a significant rebound in 2021, likely in the second half, with potential improvements of 60% to 70%. This wouldn’t return us to 2019 levels for a few more years, but such an improvement seems promising from our current view. Next, regarding the general aviation or business jet market, this segment usually contributes about 10% of our revenues, approximately $78 million last year. The GA market is mostly line fit, with a smaller aftermarket component. Following the pandemic, manufacturers of business jets have reduced production rates by about 35%, similar to commercial transport manufacturers. Nonetheless, usage has nearly returned to pre-pandemic levels, particularly in North America, which is the largest market for business jets, largely driven by strong fractional activity. However, corporate flight activity has not yet fully rebounded due to ongoing remote work trends. It is uncertain if this increased utilization will translate into higher production rates, although some signs suggest production rates may rise in 2021 compared to 2020. The third market we serve is government and defense, representing about 20% of our revenue in 2019, including military aircraft and our test business. This portion appears stable and potentially accelerating. We've seen substantial activity in our test business, like the recent $30 million program we announced regarding consolidated tests for new trains in collaboration with Stadler. Although transit ridership is down, funding for these major programs comes from federal grants designated for long-term capital improvements, not directly from ticket sales, indicating a focus on future needs beyond the current pandemic. Additionally, we have initiatives in other markets. For example, we've collaborated with the design firm PDT to enhance our design and manufacturing capabilities in various sectors, including health care. One notable capability is our partnership with Xenex, which manufactures disinfection robots using UV technology. These machines are finding demand across diverse applications, from schools to airports, demonstrating our adaptability in response to the COVID-19 environment. As we approach year-end and review our performance so far, we expect 2020 sales to exceed $500 million, implying above $112 million in the fourth quarter. Our scheduled backlog was $112 million entering the quarter. If we perform well on our backlog and secure new business, we anticipate exceeding our initial projections. Looking ahead to 2021, much remains uncertain as we wait for confirmations regarding production rates, particularly for the commercial transport and business jet sectors. The outcomes for the 737 program are significant, as the standard line price per aircraft and associated optional equipment represent important revenue streams. Airlines are currently hesitant to commit to new programs despite ongoing planning, but we are engaged in discussions that may lead to orders once conditions improve. We cannot provide guidance for 2021 yet, but we hope to offer more clarity in February during our Q4 results announcement. This concludes our prepared remarks, and we can now take questions.

Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Jon Tanwanteng with CJS Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 4

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my question. In your prepared remarks, you said you expected to be fair, do you expect a pickup in OEM or aftermarket orders in Q4, especially as COVID surges across the globe or is this more of a comment that maybe other pieces of your business are going to pick up and make up for that?

Peter Gundermann Chairman

It's a bit of both. In the third quarter, we faced some challenges that are hard to quantify. There was a destocking process due to declining production rates, which resulted in fewer orders than we anticipated for this quarter compared to what we expect for the fourth quarter. However, we are seeing some business pick up. The Xenex initiative I mentioned is expected to make a significant contribution in the fourth quarter. Given how customers have scheduled their orders, we anticipate a stronger performance in the fourth quarter. We do need to see an increase in bookings to support our business plan for 2021. One approach is to look at the OEMs' production plans, which should set a baseline for our revenue expectations, assuming the destocking issue is resolved as we move through the fourth quarter. I do believe it will be resolved, except potentially with the 737, where the production rate remains very low. The more complicated aspect is the aftermarket, primarily concerning airlines and IFEC equipment. Currently, it's unclear when they will feel ready to move forward with those programs; they need to see some improvement in air traffic first.

Speaker 4

Got it. That's helpful, Pete. Thank you. And then just a follow-on on the Xenex order, is that all going to hit in Q4, that spread over a longer time period? And if that's successful, do you expect a follow-on order to that?

Peter Gundermann Chairman

Good questions. It's going to contribute to the fourth quarter. I think it'll dribble into the first quarter also. I believe at this point, we are expecting another order, but that will be a function of their success in the market and we're complimenting their capabilities from a manufacturing standpoint. So it's unclear when that would happen, or how large it would be. But at this point, we are hoping for a continuation of that line of work in the next year.

Speaker 4

And maybe just a follow-on to that. What is the margin for that business? Is it your average? Or is there something special one-off about it?

Peter Gundermann Chairman

It is not as good a margin compared to our aerospace business. So it's two ways to look at it. If you stack up the normal overheads and structures, it's really thin because it's contract manufacturing, after all. On the other hand, if you look at it on an incremental basis, we're expected to contribute.

Speaker 4

Got it. That's helpful. And…

Peter Gundermann Chairman

Just…

Speaker 4

Sorry, what?

Peter Gundermann Chairman

I was going to ask Dave if he wanted to add anything, but he passed.

Speaker 4

Okay, got it. And just finally, on the transit business, congratulations on the Atlanta win. I was wondering how many more programs you have like that, like New York, like Atlanta in the pipeline? I'm just assuming the state and local budgets are getting hit going to nice next year. And you said it's not based on ticket sales. But with ridership down with the federal and state funding, an open question, I'm wondering how much that market can contribute in 2021?

Peter Gundermann Chairman

Yes, that's a great question, and we are closely monitoring the situation. Currently, ridership and capital projects seem to be operating separately. Capital projects continue despite the decline in ridership, which isn't sustainable in the long run. Officials in places like New York City seem to expect that by 2024, ridership will return to higher levels, assuming the pandemic is under control. They also have significant modernization needs that they need to address. This is the challenge municipalities are facing. While ridership is down, which may affect their purchasing decisions in the short term, they are still moving forward with capital improvements as far as we can tell. We are actively exploring various opportunities with different municipalities and do not anticipate a slowdown at this time. Both the Marta program and the New York City program should contribute positively to our overall performance in 2021.

Speaker 4

Maybe your question had to do with bookings. We would expect to have another win, maybe two, over the next 12 months, would you say?

Peter Gundermann Chairman

Sure.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ken Herbert with Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 5

Yes, good morning.

Peter Gundermann Chairman

Good morning.

Speaker 5

Pete, considering the visibility you have for the fourth quarter and all the factors at play, is the aerospace business expected to be profitable at the segment level in the fourth quarter based on your current perspective?

Peter Gundermann Chairman

No fourth quarter?

Speaker 5

Fourth-quarter.

Peter Gundermann Chairman

Yes, on an adjusted EBITDA basis, we would like to think that we can operate the business cash neutral at those levels, but we do not expect our aerospace business to be profitable at that level. That's the dilemma we face. Our business is structured for much higher volume. We have secured and are pursuing several attractive development programs in the market. Last time, we discussed our FARA and FLRAA initiative with Bell Textron, which we consider to be a premier program. Unfortunately, the pandemic has significantly reduced our production capacity, which in turn has decreased engineering efforts, but not in a proportional manner. This negatively impacts our margins.

Yes, it approaches break even at that point. It could result in a slight profit or a slight loss, but it comes close to the GAAP breakeven point at the operating segment level for the fourth quarter.

Speaker 5

Okay. Okay, that's helpful. And I appreciate all the additional detail, Dave and Pete, you continue to provide on the business. I'm just curious, as you look at the 70% of your business that's aerospace, is there any discernible difference in margins between the line fit side of the business and the aftermarket?

Peter Gundermann Chairman

Not really. That's a good question. I think we're a bit different from most companies in that a lot of our line fit work is sold to airlines or other prime suppliers, who then handle both the line fit aspect and the aftermarket. For example, if American Airlines decides to standardize our In-Seat Power on part of their fleet, such as the 737, they will install it on their existing airplanes and also have it installed on new applications in Seattle. The pricing remains the same, regardless of whether it's in the aftermarket or line fit. It's important to clarify that our aftermarket does not refer to repair and overhaul; rather, it mainly involves upgrade applications.

Speaker 5

But within that, I'd imagine you get some spare parts sales, or provisioning sales, and who knows how those are classified, but spare parts sales into the aftermarket, which should be higher-margin, correct?

Peter Gundermann Chairman

It's a very small part of our business, Ken. I expect it to grow, but if you consider we are in 2020, five years ago our cabin power franchise was much smaller than it is now. A lot of the install base has been out there for five years or less. Our products are designed to last longer than that, so while there is a spares element, it’s not as significant as one might assume.

If there are any spare parts related to inflight entertainment, they will go to the same customer as the original sale under the same pricing. On the lighting side, there is some opportunity for margin on commercial transport, but we are relatively new to exterior lighting for commercial transports and do not anticipate significant volume there.

Peter Gundermann Chairman

Right, to Dave's point, if I use my American 737 example, if they have a problem with a box on an airplane, they don't necessarily call us up and order replacement. They just go to their inventory. It's a modular product, they can repair it or replace it as they want to. So there's not much of a pricing opportunity for us in that context.

Speaker 5

Okay, I have one last question about the MAX. It seems that due to inventory issues and lower bill rates, its contribution in the third and fourth quarters is minor. Did I understand you correctly, Pete, that you don't anticipate a significant increase in shipments for that program until mid-2021 or the latter half of next year?

Peter Gundermann Chairman

You heard that correctly. We're essentially shut down and have been for about three months since the end of last year, following a couple of false starts early in the year.

Yes, I think starting end of the first quarter into the second quarter of next year, we'll start seeing some low single-digit chipsets go out the door.

Peter Gundermann Chairman

But it's not meaningful early all the way until the second half. That obviously, you know the story, Ken, it assumes that they get recertified. It assumes that they move a certain number of points of inventory, and it's based on discussions they've got ongoing with their customers, none of which we're really privy to.

Speaker 5

Yes, perfect. All right. Well, thanks for all the detail.

Peter Gundermann Chairman

Alright, thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Ciarmoli with Truist Securities. Please go ahead with your question.

Speaker 6

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the questions here.

Peter Gundermann Chairman

Good morning.

Speaker 6

Maybe just on the destocking side, I mean, I know your company's different from clearly some of the other raw materials suppliers. But do you guys have the visibility? You kind of just used that analogy with Ken, that airlines got some inventory. Do you have a good line of sight into what, say the ISP providers, Panasonic has, what maybe Collins Aerospace and Safran have, what Boeing has? And I guess, just trying to think about where production rates are. I mean, obviously, the MAX was shut down, but still, it seems like such a wide-body rates are flowing through the system here. I mean, do you have a good line of sight to see a path there? I know your inventory out there has kind of been soaked up, and we will see a restart or is it just trying to triangulate what's out there?

Peter Gundermann Chairman

I would tell you, Michael, we don't have a clear view. It's challenging to get answers on many of these issues.

Speaker 6

Okay.

Peter Gundermann Chairman

We believe that for the most part, when it comes to wide-body airplanes, most of our content is related to in-service products through the major service providers. We think this primarily drives the orders. If standard products are not involved, there isn’t a large inventory surplus that needs to be built up or reduced. For example, if Singapore intends to purchase a specific number of A350s and wants our power system integrated with Panasonic's products for those A350s, they’ll order 10 chipsets from Panasonic and 10 chipsets from us. Therefore, there isn't a clear indication for significant inventory accumulation. Instead, we are observing this with line-fit products, particularly with the 737 and 777. There hasn’t been any destocking in these areas because inventory levels have already been significantly reduced over the past year. Additionally, business jets could also be experiencing a considerable amount of destocking since we equip nearly every business jet available, which contains a lot of standard products, and those production rates are decreasing as well. We will have to wait and see how this develops. Clearly, our shipment expectations in the market are much higher than the bookings we've noted in the previous two quarters. We anticipate that bookings will rise to meet those shipping levels if they are indicative of the production plans from the OEMs, which we expect to occur.

Speaker 6

You had good sequential bookings growth from the second quarter. Should we expect bookings to continue improving based on what you're indicating this month, perhaps regarding additional quoting activity? Do you have confidence in that booking? It may not match the sequential level from June to September, but do you believe bookings can keep advancing?

Peter Gundermann Chairman

I hope so. The Marta-Stadler order is booked for the fourth quarter, amounting to a $30 million program. This represents a significant part of our achievements in the second and third quarters. I anticipate sequential improvement. It's still early in the quarter, and the fourth quarter can be unpredictable due to the holidays, including Thanksgiving and Christmas. However, I don’t foresee much risk of a downturn, so I believe it has to increase.

Speaker 6

I'm curious about the airline retrofit program. Airlines are trying to save money and cut costs wherever they can, but I believe American is continuing with its A320 interior updates, albeit on a limited basis as they arise. How are you approaching the retrofit aspect of the market? Are you noticing any signals or signs from specific airlines?

Peter Gundermann Chairman

We definitely work with around 300 airlines globally. Some of these airlines, particularly the smaller and internationally focused ones, are currently facing significant challenges. In contrast, those with larger domestic routes, such as in the US or China, are more engaged in discussions about connectivity and passenger entertainment. However, they are hesitant to invest millions in upgrading planes that are currently inactive. It’s a bit of a catch-22; they want to see an increase in flights before committing to spending. Nonetheless, there are definite plans to move forward. Our products generally have short life cycles, and customers expect ongoing enhancements in in-flight services and entertainment. Airlines today recognize that they cannot consider revamping their services post-pandemic without ISP entertainment options for their passengers. We believe that we've moved past the point where that is a viable option.

Speaker 6

Got it. All right, perfect. Thanks, guys.

Peter Gundermann Chairman

Sure.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of an unidentified analyst. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 7

Thank you. Pete, I understand the challenges on the commercial aerospace side for 2021. However, you mentioned some strong programs and stability in testing, particularly outside of transit. Can you share your thoughts on what you believe testing can achieve in 2021?

Peter Gundermann Chairman

We're still gathering information on that. However, there has been growth, particularly if we exclude the semiconductor segment, which has performed well this year. Additionally, if we include the Stadler order in our bookings, their book-to-bill ratio over the past year is very encouraging, showing an increase of about 10%. This business model is not based on a steady run rate; rather, it depends on securing large contracts. They function like camels, managing to go long periods without resources, but when they encounter a significant opportunity, they need to take advantage of it. They land major contracts, and our revenue prospects for next year are tied to these substantial orders they are targeting. We refer to them as whale hunts, and Stadler certainly qualifies as one of those, similar to the New York City contract. There are a few others that might come through soon, which will influence their position in 2021. While we are not yet prepared to provide guidance, our testing business, as you’ve observed previously, offers the best insight into what we can expect in the near term.

Speaker 7

Okay. And just the tail mount and the business, just your tail mount antennae, what's currently going on or not going on there?

Peter Gundermann Chairman

We are making good progress. Our partnership with Collins Aerospace is moving forward as they are actively marketing and pursuing sales for the program. From a performance standpoint, we believe we are achieving success, and we are currently waiting to hear from Collins about their volume plans for 2021. We anticipate a significant increase, but it is still a bit early to confirm. You can expect a press release regarding this by the end of the year.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thank you.

Peter Gundermann Chairman

Sure.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our question-and-answer session. I'll turn the floor back to Mr. Gundermann for any final comments.

Peter Gundermann Chairman

No final comments. Thank you for your time and attention. We look forward to talking to you at the end of the fourth quarter, hopefully, with better news. Have a good day.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.