AngloGold Ashanti PLC Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the AngloGold Ashanti Q4 2025 Earnings Release. Please note that this event is being recorded. I will now hand you over to Mr. Stewart Bailey. Please go ahead, sir.

Thanks, Judith, and welcome, everybody, to our full year and Q4 results call. As always, Alberto and Gillian will walk through the presentation but you do have other members of our senior leadership team that will be on hand for the Q&A afterwards as needed. I direct you all to the safe harbor statement at the beginning of the presentation, which has got important information regarding forward-looking statements. Without any further ado, I'll hand over to Alberto.

Thank you, Stewart, and welcome, everyone. Let's begin with safety. We achieved our lowest total recordable injury frequency rate at 0.97, which translates to 0.97 injuries per million hours worked. This milestone is one of several records set last year and is by far the most crucial. It marks another significant step in our commitment to safety, consistently exceeding the ICMM member average. Our primary objective remains to prevent complacency, continually learn from our experiences, and diligently apply those lessons. This morning, I listened to a podcast discussing our AI results, which linked safety to operational excellence. Such impressive safety levels contribute to our operational efficiency, allowing for more planned maintenance and ensuring our processing plants operate optimally. It's clear we could not achieve our level of operational excellence without our strong safety statistics. Hence, safety remains our top priority and paves the way for operational excellence. I'm pleased to report robust numbers for Q4 and the overall year. We set new records in cash flow, earnings, and dividend declarations. In the last quarter, we generated free cash flow exceeding $1 billion, marking the highest amount ever and more than three times our results from the same quarter last year. Consequently, we've declared $875 million to shareholders as a dividend in Q4 alone. What we can control, we manage effectively, especially when looking at our operations with higher contributions from Sukari, Obuasi, Siguiri, Geita, and Cerro Vanguardia. Notably, we also produced 3.7 million ounces of silver at CVSA in Argentina. Conversely, we experienced lower production from Iduapriem and Sunrise Dam. Obuasi maintained a consistent on-plan performance, with improvements in recoveries and tonnage treated. Total costs for managed operations increased by only 5% over the year. This marks the fourth consecutive year where our cash costs have remained below inflation and royalties. Essentially, our cash costs have remained flat in real terms since 2021, making us the only company in the sector to achieve that. Cash flow of nearly $3 billion was up 204% year-on-year. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 129%, and headline earnings rose by 186%. Our balance sheet remains solid. Even after record dividend payments, we turned $567 million of net debt at the end of 2024 into $879 million of net cash by the end of 2025. We have plenty of liquidity and no significant near-term maturities. We have made it clear that shareholders who have remained patient throughout the commodity cycle deserve to see direct benefits from our improved performance. This requires a clear capital allocation framework and a competitive dividend policy. As a reminder, we are one year into our new dividend policy, which includes a set quarterly payout of $0.125 per share, amounting to around $63 million. It also entails an annual true-up payment, bringing the payout to 50% of free cash flow. In Q2, we decided to make an additional payment of $350 million. This brings our Q4 dividend to $875 million, and our total payout for 2025 to nearly $2 billion. This approach leads us to a net cash zero by the end of 2025, reflecting the strength of our cash flows and our confidence in the outlook as we distribute almost all the cash generated this year. I want to emphasize this point because it's often a question: what is our plan for net cash positivity? This statement demonstrates our confidence in the future as we aim for a net cash zero by the end of 2025. We will evaluate the situation this year and what we decide at the end of next year. However, we have established significant precedents in how we manage our quarterly dividends, marking another milestone for us. With Obuasi continuing to ramp up, our Tier 1 assets now account for over 70% of production and 80% of reserves. The results from 2025 reflect a full year of consolidating Sukari's operations, greatly impacting our financial and operational performance. Meanwhile, our Tier 2 assets continue to yield strong results with margins that exceed those of our Tier 1 mines from a year ago. There is a healthy margin and exceptional cash flow leverage visible across the portfolio, demonstrating our active management approach. The sale of Serra Grande on December 1, 2025, will help us sharpen our focus on core operations. At Obuasi, we delivered on our commitments, producing 266,000 ounces, an increase of 20% year-on-year, supported by our investments in ventilation, material handling, and better equipment availability, which we are working hard to sustain. Our technical proof of concept has shown meaningful progress. Underhand drift and fill are working effectively in the high-grade zones, and lateral development, essential for this method, is progressing well. We recorded a 34% increase in lateral development from Q1 to Q4 of 2025, positioning us well for our 2026 production forecast of over 300,000 ounces, accompanied by a corresponding increase in cash flow contribution. Notably, Obuasi generated approximately $1,300 of free cash flow per ounce in 2025, double the production from Kibali, our non-managed operation. This marks a notable turnaround from four years ago. Sukari is a Tier 1 operation in every respect, showcasing record deliveries, strong margins, and exceptional operational stability. The world-class operating team is committed to improving the asset and benefiting from its integration into a larger business. Sukari achieved record production and significant cash flow in 2025. When assessing the net acquisition cost for Centamin, after accounting for proceeds from the sale of ABC and Doropo, and cash on hand, we generated nearly one-third of the purchase cost in our first year of ownership, with more to come. The integration is complete, and the full asset potential team has identified numerous opportunities to enhance value. We see possibilities, particularly in expanding underground operations from 1.2 million tonnes to 2.3 million tonnes of higher-grade ore, requiring a new portal and fleet expansion. Other opportunities include a small heap leach project, improved efficiencies, and better recoveries. Geologically, the ore body remains open, with plans to increase our exploration budget during 2026, indicating significant opportunities ahead. While we achieved record cash flow, we are proactively drilling to secure future resources. Our top-tier exploration team consistently delivers outstanding results across our portfolio, replacing depletion and boosting resource confidence. Our mineral reserve numbers show strong returns from our brownfield exploration program, adding 10 million new ounces of reserves, over three times our depletion. While Nevada contributed 4.9 million ounces with first-time reserves from Arthur, other operating assets also yielded significant net additions. At Geita, a focus area, we added 1.3 million ounces, primarily in the open pit. Mining is a long-term endeavor, and we must consider returns over time. In recent years, we've added almost 23 million ounces at an average cost of about $47 an ounce, a compelling value proposition. A Tier 1 discovery in a low-risk jurisdiction with long life and strong growth potential is the ultimate goal for any gold company, and our Arthur Gold project represents that. What began as an ambitious exploration thesis in the BT district has evolved into one of the largest and most significant greenfield gold discoveries in the U.S. This project is transitioning into a major high-return opportunity, with an initial reserve of 4.9 million ounces representing only the tip of the iceberg, considering the larger resource potential in the area. Our strategic acquisitions from Corvus, Coeur, and Augusta have strengthened our position in what could be the most significant discovery in Nevada in decades. The Arthur project encompasses a consolidated district with the Merlin and Silicon deposits, presenting a large-scale continuous gold system featuring both broadly disseminated mineralization and high-grade vein systems. The mineralized area measures approximately 2.7 kilometers by 1.3 kilometers and is primarily oxide, allowing for efficient mining and processing. We see a geological connection between Merlin and Silicon, offering significant potential for resource expansion. A conventional oxide gold mill with carbon and leach, along with a heap leach circuit for lower-grade material, is planned, keeping the project straightforward without complex processing requirements. We will employ large-scale equipment, including electric rope shovels and ultra-class haul trucks. Our pit design will target higher value near-surface material early on, ensuring quick payback. The outlined ore zones and simple pit geometry allow for efficient mining layouts. We will provide more details in our technical report summary on March 26, including initial probable mineral reserves of 4.9 million ounces for Merlin, calculated at $1,950 an ounce. We expect to produce about 4.5 million ounces over an initial nine-year mine life, aiming for average production of around 0.5 million ounces, likely increasing to 800,000 ounces in early years. Initial project capital is estimated at $3.6 billion, with expected returns significantly exceeding 20%, especially when factoring in spot prices and the full resource potential. This project stands to be a transformative asset for us and Southern Nevada, as the Merlin reserve's oxide nature avoids the technical complexities often associated with refractory processing. Feasibility-level studies related to the environment, hydrology, and community impact are already in progress. This will be a highly competitive asset, with additional mineral reserves at Merlin and plans to explore further for more ounces. We aim to target an additional 1.4 million ounces this year, with greater goals in the years to come. All these initiatives will be funded through our current record cash flows as we invest in a premier asset to solidify our portfolio's future. Now, I'll hand over to Gillian to discuss our record financial results and how our strong balance sheet supports this growth.

Thank you, Alberto. Strong cash conversion was a key highlight in 2025, with the higher gold price resulting in record free cash flow of $2.9 billion, nearly three times the $956 million generated in 2024. This growth highlights our improved earnings quality and stronger operating leverage, converting enhanced pricing and performance into cash at a much higher rate. It also reflects our sustained focus on cost discipline, working capital management, and capital allocation, reinforcing our ability to generate cash across the cycle. In 2025, our cost profile faced pressures, but the benefit of lower energy prices, with oil down approximately 14% year-on-year, was countered by inflation across our operations. The standout aspect of the year was the significant increase in gold price, averaging $3,468 an ounce, which is a 45% rise compared to the average in 2024, marking a fundamental shift from the previous range of $1,800 to $2,400 an ounce over recent years. Production climbed 16% year-on-year to 3.1 million ounces in 2025, demonstrating effective execution across our key assets. Managed operations grew 19% to 2.8 million ounces, primarily driven by the addition of Sukari and a 20% increase from Obuasi. Contributions came from Geita, CVSA, and Siguiri, but this was somewhat offset by declines from Iduapriem, Sunrise Dam, and the removal of MSG from our portfolio. Cash costs from managed operations increased by 5% to $1,252 an ounce, largely due to higher royalties and inflation, which are market-driven factors beyond our control. However, costs were effectively managed through disciplined cost controls, the advantages from Sukari, and continued initiatives to realize full asset potential. The all-in sustaining cost for managed operations increased 5% to $1,751 an ounce, reflecting planned reinvestment in sustaining capital, partially mitigated by higher gold sales. 2025 marked a record year, translating operational execution into record cash generation, with earnings and free cash flow more than doubling due to a 16% increase in production and a 45% increase in gold price. Adjusted EBITDA rose by 129% to $6.3 billion, and basic earnings increased to $2.6 billion from $1 billion in 2024. We experienced a 143% rise in net cash from operating activities to $4.8 billion, even when accounting for higher taxes linked to increased profitability. As previously noted, free cash flow surged to $2.9 billion, even after supporting all CapEx and distributions to our joint venture partners. Our balance sheet has undergone a significant transformation. We entered 2026 with nearly $1 billion in net cash, a substantial improvement from the $567 million in net debt the previous year. Our focus remains: maintain discipline, enhance operational improvements, maximize cash conversion, and ensure high-quality returns throughout the cycle. Let's quickly review our guidance scorecard for 2025. This performance showcases the consistency and discipline of our operating model across our ten assets. We delivered within guidance on the two primary benchmarks of reliability: gold production and maintaining capital. Although the all-in sustaining costs and total cash costs were slightly above the guided range, this discrepancy was due to higher royalties tied to increased gold prices. We effectively managed controllable inputs, ensuring operational delivery and defending our competitive position, despite challenges in the industry. The message is clear: we fulfilled our commitments, remained disciplined with capital, and further bolstered our business resilience. We are committed to isolating the controllable elements of our cost structure, allowing us for better cost performance. In 2025, cash costs were up 7% to $1,242 an ounce, primarily driven by external market influences. Inflation, increased royalties based on higher gold prices, fuel costs, and exchange rate fluctuations collectively added around $86 an ounce to our cost base. Additionally, a $12 per ounce increase from a plant stoppage in Q3 at Siguiri was partially offset by improved productivity at Tropicana following 2024's rainfall. Our managed operations made substantial efforts to enhance the controllable aspects of their cost structure through disciplined execution, operational excellence, and initiatives aimed at maximizing asset potential, resulting in approximately 1% productivity gains achieved through higher throughput and better utilization. Volumes from Sukari also provided a positive boost. Our focus remained on converting the elevated gold price into free cash flow, and in 2025, we succeeded in doing just that. The price increase contributed $3 billion, and higher gold sales volumes added $1 billion, mainly from Sukari's inclusion and robust cash flows from Kibali, combined with our ongoing priority on managing working capital. The outcome is evident when looking at the improvements in free cash flows, despite rising operational costs from a combination of increased volumes, inflation-linked royalties, higher contractor rates, and increased taxes due to higher profits. Additionally, capital expenditure rose as planned, largely due to Sukari's addition to the portfolio. Dividends paid to non-controlling interests increased by $517 million year-on-year, again reflecting Sukari's full-year inclusion. The net result of all these factors was record free cash flow of $2.9 billion in 2025. We generated cash flows from operating activities of $4.9 billion, allowing us to reinvest in the business, strengthen our balance sheet, fulfill obligations to our joint venture partners, and return value to our shareholders. We allocated $1.1 billion in sustaining capital and $459 million for future growth opportunities. We returned $588 million to our non-controlling joint venture partners and used $953 million to enhance the balance sheet, resulting in a net cash position. As noted, we declared an interim dividend of $875 million or $1.73 per share for Q4 2025, which represents 50% of free cash flow plus an additional $350 million to provide direct returns to shareholders, underscoring our confidence in the outlook for our operating performance and free cash flow generation in 2026. This brings total dividends for 2025 to a record $1.8 billion or $3.57 per share. At year-end, we had $4.4 billion in liquidity, consisting of $2.9 billion in cash and cash equivalents, along with the remainder from undrawn bank facilities. This strong balance sheet has been achieved while investing in safe, stable production, confidently advancing projects in our growth pipeline, and delivering record returns to shareholders. I will now turn to our outlook for 2026, anchored in a portfolio that is performing well, underpinned by a clear operational plan and disciplined value-driven investment. For 2026, we are projecting gold production of between 2.8 million ounces and 3.17 million ounces. We estimate total cash costs for managed operations to be between $1,335 and $1,455 an ounce, which reflects a realistic assessment of the operating and macroeconomic environment, with the anticipated increase largely attributed to royalties and inflation as well as currency exchange fluctuations. The guidance anticipates a year characterized by higher material movement across both underground and open-pit operations. Concurrently, we are investing to strengthen the business and unlock value. Sustaining capital for the group is expected to be between $1 billion and $1.14 billion. Continued enhancements and investments in the Sukari operations are projected to keep sustaining capital expenditure at our managed operations roughly in line with 2025 levels. This approach is strategic and value-accretive, supporting reliability, enhancing operational flexibility, and advancing initiatives aimed at maximizing asset potential, which are expected to yield productivity gains starting late in 2026 into 2027. We anticipate nonsustaining capital of $785 million to $835 million in 2026, focusing on key areas such as Nevada, additional waste stripping at Sukari, and tailings storage facilities at Obuasi and Siguiri, all aimed at safeguarding our operating base and ensuring flexibility to unlock future production responsibly. Looking towards 2027, the continued ramp-up at Obuasi is set to enhance production ounces, while unit costs are expected to remain stable in real terms due to our cost leadership and productivity initiatives. We are not counting on gold prices alone for performance; rather, we are enhancing our structural competitiveness. Our capital allocation will continue to be disciplined. We anticipate sustaining capital to remain consistent with 2025 and 2026 levels to support safe, stable operations, while nonsustaining capital will rise as we initiate construction on the North Bullfrog project. This is our capital allocation strategy: sustain and protect the base, then selectively invest in the highest-return growth opportunities, executed methodically and aligned with long-term value creation. Overall, this guidance signifies a business with robust operational momentum, clear investment priorities, and an unwavering commitment to cash generation, competitiveness, and managed growth. I will now pass it back to Alberto for further insights into our focus for 2026.

Thank you, Gillian. 2026 is about disciplined execution. In a strong gold price environment, discipline matters more, not less. Our focus is simple: protect margins; allocate capital rigorously; and strengthen the portfolio. We remain focused on cost discipline and operational excellence across the portfolio. Through the full asset potential, we are systematically looking for ways to offset inflationary pressures and royalty increases, particularly around labor, energy, and consumables. We are increasing the production contribution from our Tier 1 assets, which structurally lower our cost base and improve margin resilience. Active portfolio management remains core. We've been active in this area, and we'll continue to optimize capital allocation toward assets that generate superior risk-adjusted returns. Sustaining capital is about protecting safety, reliability, and asset longevity. We are appropriately capitalizing our assets to ensure safe, stable, and sustainable operations. We continue to invest in mineral reserve development to increase operational flexibility, particularly in complex ore bodies. Reserve replacement remains fundamental; sustained reserve growth underpins long-term value creation. Growth capital is focused on high-quality, long-life projects, particularly in Nevada. These projects enhance jurisdictional quality and portfolio resilience. We are creating flexibility for life extension and brownfield growth across the portfolio by building new tailings and opening land to extend our mining operations. We are prioritizing short-cycle, high-return organic projects that strengthen free cash flow generation. Operational excellence alone is not enough. Social and regulatory stability are equally critical. We remain deeply committed to our host communities and governments, where we're providing real-time benefits from the higher gold price through taxes, royalties, and meaningful participation in the value chain. In this slide, we highlight an emerging picture of low-risk, capital-efficient, and very high-return opportunities in our current operational footprint. It underscores what I've said repeatedly: that the best opportunities for us lie within the capital we're deploying today, funding low-risk, high-return projects at our current mines. These options have the potential to add between 10% and 15% to our current production profile during the next 3 years. We'll talk much more about this in detail in the second half of the year. As previously mentioned, at Geita, we're advancing a project to lift throughput in the mill and increase production by around 20%. At Sukari, the capital we're spending on accelerated waste stripping and fleet upgrades will underpin a potentially significant mining expansion, coupled with processing improvements like a new gravity circuit and absorption tank to boost recoveries. This will provide a healthy step-up in production. We are seeing similar organic growth across the rest of the portfolio. At Siguiri, we're evaluating the potential to combine some of our existing dormant pits in Block 1 with the ramp-up of production from Block 3 to bring this asset with its exceptional geology into the Tier 1 category. And at Cuiaba, accessing the high-grade Viana ore body is a relatively straightforward opportunity to appreciably improve production. This is what disciplined capital allocation looks like: taking part of our record free cash flow and reinvesting it in low-risk, high-return opportunities that will optimize the value we can deliver from our world-class ore bodies. All of these growth projects will have a project management office and a VP of growth dedicated to these organic projects for the next 3 years. We are prefunding the health and expansion of these assets today, ensuring they remain highly profitable cash generators well into the 2030s. We made steady progress narrowing the rating gap relative to our North American peers. This hasn't been about addressing a single issue, but rather a comprehensive plan over a number of years to strengthen every aspect of the business. Our fundamentals are robust, the portfolio is performing, and the outlook is bright. We're delivering on our commitments, achieving consistent operational improvements, enhancing returns, and positioning the company for sustainable growth. Importantly, the higher gold price has flowed onto the bottom line. This has generated the highest free cash flow yields in the industry or one of the highest. As you assess our valuation metrics, we believe AngloGold Ashanti represents a compelling investment proposition, as you can see clearly in the graph: strong cash generation, disciplined shareholder-focused capital allocation, market-leading yield, and a valuation that offers clear upside potential. With that, I'll take your questions.

Our first question comes from Adrian Hammond of SBG Securities.

I have a few questions. I'll list them in order. Firstly, the payout ratio is obviously welcome, certainly exceeded your current base policy by margin. Given where gold prices are, I get the sense that higher payouts are the order of the day. But the question is where does this stop? Because at spot prices, you're going to generate significant amounts of money that you may not have a use for. So should gold prices stay where they are, what should we be modeling in terms of payouts? Is 60% sort of the new benchmark for yourselves at spot? Or should we expect even higher payouts? Secondly, on Slide 28, the organic growth options, I wonder if you can unpick that a bit more clearly. Just to confirm, you're saying 10% growth on your base, so 300,000 ounces. And then correct me if I'm wrong, 100,000 from Geita, I assume that's from 2028, 100,000 from Sukari, when do you expect that? And then, I guess, the balance for Cuiaba and Siguiri?

Thank you, Adrian. As always, very good questions, and I can probably answer half of them. So look, the payout ratio is one step at a time. We've done it. This is just an indication of how we think about things, but I don't want to get ahead of myself. Again, we don't know the gold price, where it's going to be. So this is just a commitment that if we have very high gold prices, we will do something and we will explain what we're doing with it. So in the end, this is more symbolic. The additional $300 million was just to say we're going to get down to net zero at the end of '25, and yes, we'll see what happens. As you know, we have several options in how to deal with capital. So we'll be considering them and you will know of it. What we won't do is tell you every quarter what we're doing with the money, but I don't want to anticipate if it's spot at this stage, I would just leave it there. On organic growth, we struggle a bit to say because we are significantly increasing investment in growth capital. So we wanted to say that, but really we will come with a very detailed breakdown. As I said, asset by asset. And it's going to be those 4 plus Obuasi. The 10% to 15%, I would calculate it over the 3 million ounces. So yes, that's between 300,000 and 450,000 ounces by the third year. We will give you lots of detail this year. I think in August, that's what we're planning. But we're very excited by this. And as I said, it's going to be Obuasi, Sukari, Geita, Siguiri, and Cuiaba, with relatively low investments. You take Sukari, for example, which is a wonderful job that they did. We're increasing underground movements from 1.2 million to 2.3 million of higher-grade ore. Hence, we're just planning on this to build an additional platform and obviously, additional mining equipment, but we could do it through the same processing plant. And it has an impact of about 100,000 ounces. So I'll give you much more detail as we go through the year, but this is probably the most exciting project we have for 2026.

The next question comes from Josh Wolfson of RBC.

I noted this year, obviously, very positive initial reserve declaration, resources overall stayed stable. With some of the disclosures earlier on the call about reserve conversion of an additional 1.4 million ounces, how are you thinking about further expansion? How are you allocating exploration spending according to that?

Okay. Well, I'll answer something, and then we have Marcelo Godoy on the call and I'll ask you to help me. But look, there's always a trade-off. You don't want to go too far in advance again on resource. We already have resources for the next 30 years or something like that. So there is always a goldilocks point. The same with reserves; you need to find a limit and say, okay, this is where we're going to start. But it's obvious when you see the chart that when we talk about 9 years, it's not going to happen like that. We're going to obviously go very quickly. We're going to head to about 800,000 ounces in the second or third year of production. And by then, we will be bringing other ore bodies into reserves, and all of that. We do plan to add between 1 million and 1.4 million ounces in 2026. But Marcelo? What else?

Yes. Thanks, Alberto. One thing, when you think about Arthur, you should be thinking about the 12 million tons per year project. And that's what came out of the pre-feasibility study as an optimal size for the project. So any additional addition to the project, you should be using the additional life of mine in your models because that's what the project is really about: continuing to produce 12 million tons per annum. And obviously, there are constraints that made us arrive at that number. As you can see, we have lots of resources to produce at that production rate for multiple decades. Exploration keeps just on giving. Every time we drill, we find more resources, which from our focus now is to get the project going as soon as possible. That's what the exploration team is focused on.

Got it. And then a question on, I guess, the 2027 guidance. I noticed the company included or disclosed the capital associated with North Bullfrog in 2026. I'm wondering for the 2027 numbers, what's the proportion of capital at North Bullfrog? And then what's the company assuming in terms of the Ghanaian royalty outlook? Is there a change incorporated? Or is it the existing rate?

We are including approximately $14 million for North Bullfrog in 2026. Gillian will assist me with the additional details. We have not accounted for anything regarding the Ghanaian royalty yet. We are having positive discussions with the government, but it's too early to make any assumptions. So, Gillian?

Yes. So thanks, Josh. For '27, North Bullfrog is $320 million, and then we've got about $90 million for Arthur Gold in the guidance as well.

Great. And if I can tuck in one more. Just on the topic of M&A. On the disposition side of things, is CVSA still something that's under consideration? Maybe how are you thinking about that with significantly higher silver prices today? And then on the acquisition side, what's the current thinking?

Thank you. It was no secret that we were attempting to conduct a sale process for CVSA. However, after starting the process, gold prices changed significantly over the next six months, as did silver prices. This led to a situation where it made no sense for either party involved. The asset's value and its potential cash flow over the next three years are remarkable. I must commend the team there; they are exceptionally skilled. There's a running joke that their distance from corporate allows them to perform even better without interference. They have successfully extended the mine's life, potentially into the 2030s, although we haven't officially declared it yet. We're pleased to have them managing the operation. The shift in silver and gold prices has altered our perspective, but we are content to hold on to it for now. The government has also made significant improvements, which were a previous barrier to cash flows. Now we're starting to see the cash flows as if we were operating in a developed country. We hope that Mile remains stable for some time. Regarding mergers and acquisitions, we have excellent opportunities for organic growth. The B team always explores potential deals, but as I’ve mentioned before, it’s challenging to pay a premium while still creating value. Our criteria remain consistent: we seek to enhance the company’s net asset value. While they continue to explore, nearly all of our focus, about 99.9%, is on organic growth.

The next question comes from Patrick Jones of JPMorgan.

I appreciate your comments earlier around the predictability of the dividend policy. But obviously, as I said, there's no buybacks this time, but it did make an appearance again in the shareholder return slide. So I guess my question is, what constitutes the comment you gave was around you will consider buybacks and the supportive market conditions there on the slide, and what will get the Board to shift its thinking from dividends to buybacks?

Okay. Look, we reassess this. It's part of the book of buybacks, dividends, debt reduction. So this is part of the book. We always contemplated at this stage; in this case, it was like we have a very good dividend. It's the most generous dividend policy. We're very flattered that several of our colleagues, competitors, have copied it exactly. So that's a sign of flattery. But at this stage, we're happy where we are, so we'll just take it, as I said, one step at a time. It didn't make any sense for $300 million to do a buyback, so it was clearly a supplementary dividend. We will take it one step at a time, and we will be explaining what we do with the cash in every quarter.

And maybe just a follow-up question then on Arthur. Obviously, it's shaping up to be an incredibly impressive project. But can you talk through what's kind of the eventual permitting and development timelines, the first output, particularly in light of the comments around North Bullfrog CapEx coming up?

The permitting for Arthur is largely within our control. We plan to pursue the FAST Track 41 process, and we have strong support from both the national and state governments. We've made significant progress with the NPO. While we can't provide specific timelines due to various factors beyond our control, we remain optimistic about the support we've received. Marcelo, do you have anything to add?

Yes. We don’t have exact timelines right now, but we aim to have the rod before the end of this decade and plan to start production in the early part of the next decade. These are our current rough estimates, as we leverage the fast-track process for the NEPA process.

The next question comes from Tanya Jakusconek of Scotiabank.

Just wanted to start, Gillian, with you, if I could. Just to make sure I understand. So this dividend still reflects the base of $0.125 and the top-up up to 50% of cash flow. Is that now still going to be done quarterly? Or is that top-up still going to happen at the end of the year? It's just we had it quarterly before, and I'm just confused about when this top-up happens.

So I'll start on that one. Just look, the policy is that we pay at the end of the year because the spot price was so high last year. Those were the decisions to just say, okay, well, there's a lot of cash accumulated and let's do it by quarter. I would assume if the spot price stays where it is, probably the Board will consider that again. But the policy is still that we only pay the 50% at the end. So we will take it quarter by quarter, Tanya.

Okay, fair enough. And just coming back, if I could, to Gillian again on the capital, still on the guidance, you mentioned some big project capital. I guess Nevada, I think, Siguiri, Obuasi. Can you just go through the growth capital, the big chunk for '26 and '27?

Yes, of course. I believe it makes sense to start with 2027, considering I've already discussed the Nevada aspect. We have a bit over $400 million allocated for North Bullfrog and Arthur. Additionally, we need to consistently invest in tailings facilities, which requires funds across the entire portfolio, including Kibali, Siguiri, Obuasi, Iduapriem, and Geita. This applies throughout our operations. There’s also some capitalized open pit waste at Sukari that has been covered previously, particularly a three-year stripping campaign. Looking ahead to 2026, the spending for Nevada will be lower due to the project's current phase. Similar to Sukari, we’ll continue with the stripping campaign and will also need to invest in tailings and relocations. It's essential to highlight that the expenditures in 2026 are crucial for unlocking reserve growth and the volumes that were addressed earlier. Ensuring the safety of tailings facilities and relocating communities to realize that value will be a priority for 2026 and beyond.

I'd just add quickly. There's $70 million on growth on Kibali, which I think is welcome. I think they're finally facing the gut of facts, and it's good that they're investing in the growth of Kibali. So that is significant. The rough numbers in my memory are like $120 million for all these tailings in different projects. It's about $45 million on Cuiaba for the growth project that we talked about before. Nevada is about $145 million. So there, you'll be up on that, which would explain a lot of the growth.

Yes. Okay, great. And I'm going to have my next question come to Arthur, if I could. I don't know who would want the maybe Alberto or you, Marcelo, may be one of you can just walk us through what you can control, which is the next steps are drilling, and then maybe when the feasibility study is coming out. And then obviously, when do you expect to hand in your EIA, so we can understand what you can control? Over this period, Marcelo, do you think we can move the overall resource to 20 million ounces from close to 16 million?

Marcelo will help us with this, but we can't pinpoint. We don't want to commit on timing because it's not in our control. But the rest, I think Marcelo can help you with.

Yes. Look, we are going to start the feasibility study in Q2 of this year. So that's where we plan to do that. The federal permitting is something that we will be starting in Q1 2027. We have control over those dates. Now the end of those processes is something that we don't necessarily have control over. That's why Alberto is not giving more information on that.

Yes, no, that's fair enough. I mean, you control your feasibility study; you control your drilling. I'm just trying to understand what you control, what the timeline that you have in place, and when you submit the EIA.

Yes. The feasibility study will start in Q2 of 2026, and we intend to finalize that in Q4 2027. It's a normal timeline for a feasibility study of that size.

And then you would hand in your EIA at the end of 2027 as well?

Well, the EIA you can start at the beginning of 2027 because it depends on the mine plan of operations, which is right now under development. So yes, we should be able to start that process in Q1 2027.

Okay. And anything on the resource drilling over this period?

Look, I think at the end of the day, we want to convert as much as possible, Tanya, and 20 million would be great. But what we need to do now is just to get through the processing because we already have excellent grade and tonnage planning for the first 10 years of the mine. Everything that comes after that, we know it's there, but it's not our highest priority right now.

No, I appreciate it, Marcelo. As a geologist, I examine the sections and the plan view, and I see a lot more gold. When will we access it? I suppose one must dream. My final question is for Alberto. In your exploration and M&A outlook, we noticed your continued investment in junior companies. Your most recent investment was in Thesis Gold in Canada. Could you share your perspective on this approach as part of your M&A strategy?

Well, fortunately, we have Terry here who leads all of that. So I'll let Terry help us.

Thank you for picking up the investment in Thesis. We are really excited to work with Ewan and the team there as they advance the Lawyers-Ranch Project. But really, it's quite simple. We take a multi-pronged approach to growth. Alberto laid out a lot of the organic opportunities within our brownfield sites. We also have greenfields exploration, which led to the Arthur deposit, which is getting a lot of discussion. We also take strategic stakes in interesting projects, as well as Alberto said, and we continue to assess inorganic opportunities, too. So it's just another tool in our ability to maintain that we can have the most optimal portfolio going into the future.

Our next question comes from Rene Hochreiter of NOAH Capital.

Well done, very good results. Just a quick question. What was the reason for the negative geological model conversion at Geita? And is it likely to be a problem in the future?

It was still a negative improvement. Again, I lost our COO because he's taking a plane. So we'll get back to you on that one, but it was still a net improvement. We improved 1.3 million ounces of net addition.

And we'll come back to you on the specific answer.

Our next question comes from Joseph Reagor of ROTH Capital Partners.

Most of mine have been answered, but just wanted to touch on Arthur. There's been some local opposition from a water standpoint in Nevada projects lately. Do you guys think that might have any impact on the decisions you make there? Or is it something you think you can easily mitigate by the time of going into production?

Look, there's been very constructive discussions that we've had. From the original project that we had in the North, we reformulated significantly, and we have much less use of water. So we've heard and we've dealt with it; there are all sorts of designs to minimize the use of water. But we're quite comfortable at this stage that we're going to be able to deal with all of these issues. But Marcelo...

Look, it is a desert, and we know that water is always going to be an issue, but we have been managing. We have a multi-tier process to manage those risks related to water in the project. As Alberto said, we have very constructive relationships and collaboration right now with the NGOs to get to a common understanding of the water situation in the region. We have very sophisticated hydrogeological models for the region, and we believe that we will be able to overcome those issues.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I will now hand back for closing remarks.

Well, thank you again, as always, for accompanying us. Look, we may become a little boring. We are predictable. We want to meet guidance. We keep with full asset potential. We don't have a program of the month every year. We'll keep doing that. For us, it's about safe, stable, consistent operations. Now we have a very exciting organic growth project that we'll be sharing with you. And yes, that's about it. We're just going to continue to do what we have been doing for the past years. So thank you all again.

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes this afternoon's event. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.