Carnival Corp Ltd. Q1 FY2022 Earnings Call

Good morning, and welcome to our business update conference call. I'm Arnold Donald, President and CEO of Carnival Corporation & plc. Today, I'm joined telephonically by our Chairman, Micky Arison; our Chief Financial Officer, David Bernstein; and Beth Roberts, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. We'd like to thank you all for joining us this morning. Now before I begin, please note that some of our remarks on this call will be forward-looking. Therefore, I must refer you to the cautionary statement in today's press release. Prior to getting into the details of the update, I just first want to say my heart goes out to all those affected by the invasion of Ukraine. I know thousands of members of our Carnival family are directly impacted and have loved ones in the area. We, along with the rest of the world, are praying for a peaceful resolution. Now concerning our business. We're well on our way back to full cruise operations with 75% of our capacity having resumed guest operations and a plan to return the balance of the fleet for the summer season. And while the conversation around COVID-19 is greatly reduced, we still have to and are successfully actively managing. Our enhanced protocols have helped us become among the safest forms of socializing and travel with far lower incident rates than on land. In fact, we have carried more than 2 million guests since resuming operations. Our guests are enjoying great vacations, and we are enjoying historically high guest satisfaction scores. Of course, we have not lost sight of our highest responsibility and, therefore, our top priority, which is always compliance, environmental protection and the health, safety and well-being of everyone: our guests; the people and the communities we touch and serve; and of course, our Carnival family, our team members shipboard and shoreside. I'd like to start today by sincerely thanking our Carnival team members for their significant contributions which collectively have gotten us to where we are today despite a multitude of challenges. Through their collective efforts, so far, we successfully returned 64 ships to guest operations; enabled over 70,000 crew members to return to work, happy, healthy and vaccinated through our team's considerable efforts to secure and distribute vaccines; reopened our 8 owned and operated private destinations and port facilities, which about half of our guests have experienced since resuming operations: Princess Cay, Half Moon Cay, Grand Turk, Mahogany Bay, Amber Cove, Cozumel, Santa Cruz de Tenerife and Barcelona; and most importantly, delivered 2.2 million joyful vacations and counting. At the same time, we also managed down operating costs, reducing our monthly adjusted EBITDA losses by 40% since mid-2020; completed a continuous stream of capital raising, exceeding $29 billion; refinanced more than $9 billion of debt, improving interest rates; amended over 100 different lender agreements; and successfully addressed our maturity tower out through 2024, all of which culminated in a consistent liquidity position exceeding $7 billion, an integral part of reinforcing stakeholder confidence. At our scale, the sheer volume of these accomplishments is no small feat. Yet these challenging operational deliverables were achieved while encountering strong headwinds like: Delta, Omicron, complex, constraining and constantly changing regulations and protocols; and more recently, the very troubling invasion of Ukraine, all of which undermine consumer confidence and generate greater friction on cross-border travel, labor, supply chain, itinerary planning and more. Now concerning the invasion of Ukraine. For the 4.6% of our capacity that was expected to call on Russian ports in the remainder of the year, we have decided to totally withdraw from Russia and have found attractive alternatives. That said, St. Petersburg was a marquee port for us. And while there have been times where we were unable to offer certain itineraries, in this instance, the close end nature of the deployment change does lead to some regional disruption in recent booking patterns. Now while the invasion has added some volatility to our business and does impact consumer confidence, with 50 years under our belt, we have successfully managed through a plethora of headwinds like: spikes in fuel prices, the Gulf War, Arab Spring, September 11, Ebola, Zika, SARS, MERS and more. And once again, the mobility of ships continues to be an asset. Time and time again, we have seen guests travel through challenges. In fact, Carnival Cruise Line turned 50 this month and recently enjoyed its 3 best weeks of bookings since resuming operations. As we previously disclosed, we had experienced an impact on booking patterns more broadly at the start of our fiscal year due to the Omicron variant. Despite Omicron, guest carry grew by nearly 20% in the first quarter. Of course, albeit less than we would have otherwise achieved without the elevated cancellations which occurred in part due to a higher incidence of pre-travel positive COVID test results as well as the difficulties that many prospective guests experienced obtaining timely tests. Moreover, there was just an overall impact Omicron had on our society over the course of our first quarter. However, we did maintain price as we said we would, and we fully expect an extended wave season. In fact, we're already achieving occupancies in the month of March that are nearing 70% with more than 40 sailings exceeding 100% occupancy, a testament to the underlying demand for cruises and the closer in nature of booking patterns. Concerning recent fuel prices. It's certainly not the first time we've seen a dramatic spike in fuel prices. Helping to address that, we aggressively manage our consumption. And we are stepping up our efforts to further reduce consumption. Now historically, we have not used fuel derivatives. And while there is an optics benefit of smoothing earnings, over time, prices have gone up and they've also come down. But there is an economic cost to derivatives. Over the past few years, we're very glad not to have speculated with fuel derivatives because it would have been a further drain on cash. With our proactive efforts to reduce our carbon footprint since 2007, we have reduced our unit fuel consumption nearly 30% and carbon intensity nearly 25% through 2019. And thanks to accelerated efforts across the board, upon reaching full fleet operations, we anticipate that we will achieve a further 10% reduction in unit fuel consumption and a 9% reduction in carbon intensity as compared to 2019. In fact, we've been working hard to resume operations not only as a strong operating company but as a more sustainable, better all-around company. We made further strides towards those efforts again this quarter. During the quarter, we enhanced our fleet optimization efforts, delivering 3 new ships: Costa Toscana, AIDAcosma and Discovery Princess, bringing the total to 9 larger, more efficient ships delivered since 2019. Moreover, we've announced the removal of an additional 3 smaller, less efficient ships, bringing the total to 22 ships to be removed from the fleet also since 2019. The accelerated removal of these less efficient ships has lowered capacity growth to 2.2% compound annually from the previous 4.5% through 2025, which should enable us to capitalize on pent-up demand on intentionally constrained capacity. The fleet optimization effort will also foster higher revenues through a 7 percentage point increase in premium-priced balcony cabins and create an even better platform for onboard revenue opportunities, as well as generate a 5% reduction in ship-level unit costs, excluding fuel, going forward, enabling us to deliver more revenue to the bottom line. Upon returning to full operations, nearly 25% of our capacity will consist of newly delivered ships, expediting our return to profitability and improving our return on invested capital. Again, we have long since recognized the importance of reducing our carbon footprint, having peaked our absolute carbon emissions more than a decade ago. And we are continuing to innovate to effect change. AIDAprima will become our first ship to pilot battery power, enabling her to optimize the efficiency of the engines while at sea, reducing emissions. We also signed groundbreaking agreements through our subsidiary, Ecospray, to partner in the production of green bio-LNG generated from waste sources. In addition, we continue to invest to drive energy efficiency, rolling out our fourth in a series of 23 ships with an innovative air lubrication system, which reduces drag on the hull and generates nearly a 5% reduction in carbon emissions. We've also taken strides to reduce our impact on climate change and mitigate climate risk in our business. We are working toward full adoption of the recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures, that's TCFD, and have begun by reinforcing our strong governance framework with my assuming the role of Chief Climate Officer, and with the formation of our Strategic Risk Evaluation Committee to further support climate-related strategic decision-making and risk management processes. Having broadened our commitments to ESG with the introduction of our 2030 sustainability goals and our 2050 aspirations, we are tracking ahead on both our important food waste and single-use plastic reduction efforts. And we are nearing completion on the rollout of more than 600 food waste biodigesters across our fleet, the most advanced technology of its kind. We believe we have clearly maximized our return to service, and we have positioned our company well to withstand volatility on our path to profitability. Throughout the pause, we have been proactively managing to resume operations as an even stronger and more efficient operating company to maximize cash generation and to deliver double-digit returns on invested capital over time. Again, our cash flow will be the primary driver to return to investment-grade credit over time, creating greater shareholder value. There have been multiple demonstrations of the resilience of the human spirit and the resilience of our business. It is heartening that our company can be a part of bringing our guests much-needed social enjoyment with family and friends, along with the excitement of experiencing new destinations and cultures, all dearly missed throughout the pandemic. I referenced Carnival Cruise Line celebrating 50 years. 50 years, frankly, seems such a short time ago that Ted Arison started Carnival Cruise Line, and along with Micky, built the modern-day cruise industry, bringing joy to millions upon millions of guests and creating hundreds of thousands of jobs, contributing to a better quality of life around the world. Of course, it cannot have been done without the overwhelming support from everyone. So once again, thank you to our valued guests. Thank you to our travel agent partners. Thank you to our home port and destination communities. Thank you to our suppliers and other many stakeholders. And of course, thank you to our shareholders, bondholders, banks and the export credit agencies for your continued confidence in us and for your ongoing support. And again, I would like to thank our team members for their dedication, their commitment and their outstanding execution. We are excited to welcome everyone back on board. With that, I'll turn the call over to David.

Thank you, Arnold. I'll start today with a review of guest cruise operations, along with a summary of our first quarter cash flows. Then I'll provide an update on booking trends and finish up with adjusted EBITDA and net income expectations. Turning to guest cruise operations. During the first quarter of 2022, we restarted 10 additional ships, resulting in 60% of our fleet capacity in guest cruise operations for the whole of the first quarter. This was a substantial increase from 47% during the fourth quarter of 2021. As of today, 75% of our fleet capacity has resumed guest cruise operations. Agility to continuously adapt to the ever-changing landscape has been one of our greatest strengths during the pandemic. In the first quarter, we continued to demonstrate this scale as we adjusted restart dates to optimize our guest cruise operations. And we now expect each brand's full fleet to be back in guest cruise operations for its respective summer season, where we historically generate the largest share of our operating income. I am happy to report that just last week, we announced plans for our Australia restart, commencing at the end of May after the government advised that cruising would be permitted beginning in April. For the first quarter, occupancy was 54% across the ships in service. We never expected to achieve our historical 100-plus percent occupancies for the first quarter since many of these sailings were confirmed just a number of months before departure, which resulted in less than the normal booking lead time. However, we had anticipated first quarter occupancy would exceed the 58% achieved in the fourth quarter of 2021. We started the quarter with over 55% cabin occupancy booked for the first quarter and expected to improve upon that during the quarter. However, during the first quarter of 2022, as a result of the Omicron variant, we experienced an impact on bookings for near-term sailings, including higher cancellations resulting from an increase in pre-travel positive test results, challenges in the availability of timely pre-travel tests and disruption that Omicron caused on society during this time. All of this inhibited our ability to build on our cabin occupancy book position for the first quarter of 2022 during the first quarter, resulting in occupancy for the first quarter 2022 at 54%, being lower than the 58% occupancy we achieved in the fourth quarter of 2021. Despite all that, during the first quarter, we carried over 1 million guests, which was nearly a 20% increase from the fourth quarter of 2021. Once again, our brands executed extremely well with Net Promoter Scores continuing at elevated levels compared to pre-COVID scores. Revenue per passenger day for the first quarter of 2022 increased approximately 7.5% compared to a strong 2019 despite our lucrative world cruises and exotic voyages being shelved this year. Our revenue management teams held on price when we experienced an impact on bookings for near-term sailings, optimizing our longer-term prospects for future revenue and pricing. Once again, our onboard and other revenue per diems were up significantly in the first quarter of 2022 versus the first quarter of 2019, in part due to the bundled packages as well as onboard credits utilized by guests from cruises canceled during the pause. We had great growth in onboard and other per diems on both sides of the Atlantic. Increases in bar, casino, shops, spa and internet led the way onboard. Over the past 2.5 years, we have offered and our guests have chosen more and more bundled package options. In the end, we will see the benefit of these bundled packages in onboard and other revenue. As a result of these bundled packages, the line between passenger ticket and onboard revenue is blurred. For accounting purposes, we allocate the total price paid by the guests between the 2 categories. Therefore, the best way to judge our performance is by reference to our total cruise revenue metrics. On the cost side, our adjusted cruise cost without fuel per available lower berth day, or ALBD as it is more commonly called, for the first quarter of 2022, was up 25%. I did say adjusted cruise costs and not net cruise costs, a term we had previously used. The calculation of adjusted cruise costs and net cruise costs are the same. However, we felt the new name more appropriately lined up with our other non-GAAP measures of adjusted net income and adjusted EBITDA, which are also referenced in our business update press release issued earlier this morning. The increase in adjusted cruise costs without fuel per ALBD is driven essentially by 5 things: first, the cost of a portion of the fleet being in pause status; second, restart-related expenses; third, 15 ships being in dry dock during the quarter, which resulted in nearly double the number of dry dock days during the first quarter versus the first quarter of 2019; fourth, the cost of maintaining enhanced health and safety protocols; and finally, inflation. Remember, that because a portion of the fleet was in pause status during the first quarter and the higher number of dry dock days, we spread costs over fewer ALBDs. I did want to point out that in the second quarter of 2022, we expect a further 24 ships to enter dry dock as part of our resumption of cruising ramp-up, optimizing our dry dock schedule while the ships are not in service and ensuring that the ships look great when they welcome their first guests back onboard. This will again result in a doubling of the dry dock days during the quarter compared to 2019, which will impact adjusted cruise cost without fuel per ALBD during the second quarter. We anticipate that many of these costs and expenses driving adjusted cruise costs without fuel per ALBD higher will end during 2022 and will not reoccur in 2023. As a result of all of the above, we expect to see a significant improvement in adjusted cruise costs, excluding fuel per ALBD from the first half of 2022 to the second half of 2022 with a low double-digit increase expected for the full year 2022 compared to 2019. Next, I'll provide a summary of our first quarter cash flows. We ended the first quarter of 2022 with $7.2 billion in liquidity versus $9.4 million at the end of the fourth quarter. Looking forward, we believe we remain well positioned given our liquidity. The change in liquidity during the quarter was driven essentially by 4 things. First, an improved negative adjusted EBITDA of $1 billion due to our ongoing resumption of guest cruise operations despite the impact of the Omicron variant. We had thought adjusted EBITDA was going to improve more. But as I said before, the Omicron variant inhibited our ability to grow occupancy during the quarter, which limited the improvement in adjusted EBITDA. Second, our investment of $400 million in capital expenditures net of export credits. Third, $500 million of debt principal payments. And fourth, $400 million of interest expense during the quarter. Now let's look at booking trends. Since the middle of January, we have seen an improving trend in booking volumes for future sailings. Recent weekly booking volumes have been higher than at any point since the restart of guest cruise operations. During the first quarter, we increased our booked occupancy position for the second half of 2022, albeit not at the same pace as a typical wave season due to the Omicron variant. As a result, the cumulative advanced book position for the second half of 2022 is at the lower end of the historical range. However, we believe we are well situated with our current second half 2022 book position given the recent improvement in booking volumes, coupled with closer in booking patterns and our expectation for an extended wave season. We continue to expect that occupancy will build throughout 2022 and return to historical levels in 2023. And importantly, I am happy to report that prices on these bookings for the second half of 2022 continue to be higher with or without future cruise credits, or more commonly called FCCs, normalized for bundled packages as compared to 2019 sailings. Our cumulative advanced book position for the first half of 2023 continues to be at the higher end of the historical range, also at higher prices with or without FCCs normalized for bundled packages as compared to 2019 sailings. This is a great achievement given pricing on bookings for 2019 sailings is a tough comparison as that was a high watermark for historical yields. I will finish up with our adjusted EBITDA and net income expectations. We all know that booking trends are a leading indicator of the health of our business. With improved recent booking trends leading the way, driving customer deposits higher, positive adjusted EBITDA is clearly within our sights. Over the next few months, we expect ship-level cash contribution to grow as more ships return to service and as we build on our occupancy percentages. However, as I've already said, adjusted EBITDA over the first half of 2022 has been or will be impacted by the restart-related spending and dry dock expenses as 39 ships, over 40% of our fleet, will have been in dry dock during the first half of fiscal 2022. Given all these factors combined, we expect monthly adjusted EBITDA to continue to improve and turn consistently positive at the beginning of our summer season. We continue to expect a net loss for the second quarter of 2022 on both a U.S. GAAP and adjusted basis. However, we expect the profit for the third quarter of 2022. For the full year, we do expect a net loss. Looking to brighter days ahead in 2023, with the full fleet back in service all year, 8% more capacity than 2019 and improved fleet profile with nearly 25% of our capacity consisting of newly delivered ships, continuing momentum on our outstanding Net Promoter Scores and occupancy returning to historical levels, we are looking forward to providing memorable vacation experiences to nearly 14 million guests and generating potentially greater adjusted EBITDA than 2019. And now I'll turn the call back over to Arnold.

I have one question regarding revenue and one about expenses. For expenses, you mentioned a 25% increase in Q1 and a low double-digit rise for the year. If that translates to around 11% or 12% for the year, it seems like expenses will be close to flat compared to 2019 by the end of this year. I wanted to confirm if we are interpreting those figures correctly. You also mentioned that the ship sales would lead to a 5% reduction in operating expenses excluding fuel in 2023 compared to 2019. While I understand you’re not providing full guidance for 2023, should we consider non-fuel expenses to be flat by year-end and then decrease by 5% next year? Now, regarding revenue, there’s a lot of positive news about the increased volume. Could you elaborate on European itineraries compared to others, particularly regarding how pricing may be holding up outside of Europe? Additionally, for the new European cruises, you may have many high-priced bookings from the past year shifted to this summer; how does the incremental European demand look in terms of its impact on pricing?

Robin, I'll have David comment a little bit on both. But directionally, on the cost question, as he articulated, we had a lot of capacity out in dry dock, etc. So we're doing stuff over a smaller number of birds in terms of looking at the cost increases. And we had lots of one-time costs and so on. So we're not giving guidance for next year. But as we indicated, as you look through the second half of the year and see how the cost increases will be softer, we're pointing in the right direction. And we've done a lot of things going forward, including with the change in the fleet with a significant part of our capacity, 25%, being new ships, which are inherently more efficient. But also all the active management things we've done with the existing fleet, the pre-existing fleet, exiting less efficient ships and so on and then shoreside as well. We're doing a number of things to offset inflation and to just make ourselves a better company from a cost infrastructure standpoint. So David, I'll let you comment on the cost and then we can get back to the revenue. David, go ahead.

Yes, Robin, your calculations are generally correct. To achieve a low double-digit result for the year, we need to move towards that flat area by year-end. However, I want to remind everyone that costs can fluctuate each quarter due to various factors like dry dock and advertising. As Arnold mentioned, we are not providing guidance for 2023. He also outlined several tailwinds that could help improve our operating costs and adjusted cruise costs for the year. Additionally, we have 8% more capacity, which gives us leverage compared to 2019, along with some shoreside SG&A leverage. However, we must consider the challenge of four years of inflation, which is a headwind. We will strive to manage costs effectively for 2023, but it is too early for us to give guidance at this time. Yes. Regarding revenue, it's noteworthy that we've seen an increase in booking volumes across various itineraries, including the Caribbean, the Mediterranean, and parts of Northern Europe. However, we did have 4.6% of our capacity for the rest of the year affected, specifically 3.8% for the entire year, which is related to St. Petersburg. We moved 2 ships and adjusted the itineraries for the remaining ships in the Baltic to visit other ports, impacting bookings for those ships. It’s still early, and we've just made these itinerary changes, so we need to communicate this effectively. For all other itineraries in the Mediterranean, Caribbean, and beyond, we are observing strong booking trends at solid prices. Our revenue management teams are successfully maintaining pricing while also seeing good volume. For the second quarter, we've noted that volumes have even surpassed 2019 levels, likely due to having more inventory to sell. Demand remains strong, and occupancy rates in March are approaching 70%, with several voyages exceeding 100% occupancy. Overall, we are in a strong position globally and will continue to work diligently to boost bookings for the revised itineraries.

That's great. I think that commentary addresses many of the concerns investors have had. Just to clarify, did I mishear? I thought I heard you mention a 5% reduction in operating expenses excluding fuel by 2023 compared to 2019. Was that 5%?

Yes. Arnold indicated that the 5% reduction was in ship operating expenses, and that comparison is made on an apples-to-apples basis, setting aside other factors due to fleet optimization and comparing it to 2019. There have been changes in itineraries that also affect this, along with inflation and other cost savings we are actively pursuing. The fleet optimization has had a significant positive impact in helping us reduce costs as we move into 2023.

I want to ask about onboard revenues. There seems to be concern that consumers might start reducing their spending due to higher fuel prices or other economic challenges. Given that you have real-time data on onboard spending, have you noticed anything in the past few weeks that suggests consumers might be slowing down once they board? Also, have you observed any differences in spending patterns across various regions?

Haven't seen any particular slowdown or anything like that in terms of onboard spend, it's been very strong, has continued to be healthy around the world, has been up everywhere. So don't see major distinctions from one geography to the next. As we get to full occupancy and we carry more kids in the summer, that kind of thing, you can see the kind of per diems maybe will change a little bit. But overall, the spending is significantly up and has continued to be so far. We've had good liquidity through this period. We will obviously continue to monitor. But as we move ahead and get more of our ships sailing and are able to generate obviously more revenue and more customer deposits, etc. At this stage, we feel we're in good shape on liquidity and see that going forward. If something changes, of course, obviously, we'll report at that time. But right now, we feel good about our liquidity position. David? Go ahead, David.

First of all, regarding onboard revenue, I want to add that we have been increasing prices onboard. There is strong demand, and given the current environment, we have seized the opportunity to raise prices. Concerning liquidity, in addition to what Arnold mentioned, we are considering refinancing our second lien notes that are still outstanding. We also have $3 billion in maturities in 2023, and we're evaluating the best time to refinance that. I just wanted to highlight these points as we move forward in the coming months and quarters.

A couple of my questions on the pricing front. So you guys spoke to revenue per passenger cruise day being up 7.5%. I think that number for the November quarter was plus 4%, which is obviously encouraging, right? I think the concern was that pricing benefited from the fact that these cruise ships weren't full and that the last, whatever, 20% to 30% of the rooms would come in at a discount. And so we couldn't really take that pricing strength to the bank. But this is a sample of 2, obviously. That pricing actually accelerated as the ships got more full from 4Q to 1Q. So maybe speak to how we should contextualize these pricing numbers. Is there any reason to think that those will come in a bit as we get the last, call it, 30% of occupancy? Or is there the opportunity for that to continue to accelerate?

Thank you for your question. We will continue to work diligently to ensure that prices hold and increase. We'll need to monitor how we manage yield in the end. Our aim is to optimize both occupancy and pricing. Currently, there is significant demand. We plan to gradually boost our advertising and promotional strategies. We have already increased our efforts, though we are still below our 2019 levels. We have become smarter and more efficient in our approach. Our goal is to create and sustain demand. As indicated in our reports, pricing remains strong, and we have successfully maintained it. David, would you like to provide any additional insights?

Yes. I would like to expand on what Arnold mentioned. James, it's important to consider this from a different perspective. The last 30% will not come in at the very last moment. Recently, the booking window has become much shorter. Looking ahead, we do not anticipate reaching historical occupancy levels until 2023; however, we do expect gradual improvement in occupancy each quarter. One reason for this optimism is our fuller booking curve for 2023. We will manage our pricing along this curve as Arnold described, which will help us achieve our historical occupancy levels. In the short term, we are being cautious about managing the shorter booking curve effectively. We are driving demand through advertising, although the landscape of advertising has shifted significantly and will continue to change. It's essential to think of this in terms of the booking curve. With a longer booking curve in place for next year, we can reach those occupancy targets because there is substantial demand. People want to cruise, and our product is still a great value compared to land-based options, even as we aim to slightly adjust pricing upward as indicated by Arnold.

Your understanding is correct. There are significant differences, primarily due to differing fiscal quarters. Additionally, there are factors such as cabin mix and itinerary mix, especially in European itineraries. Currently, there are substantial changes in itineraries, particularly with our more profitable options like world and exotic cruises. All these factors make comparisons challenging. When we attempt to normalize the data, which is quite difficult, we find that our performance is comparable to or, in some instances, better than others. Recently, one competitor has performed better in terms of pricing, but they haven't achieved the same occupancy rates. Therefore, we don't perceive a significant difference in overall performance when making these comparisons.

I'll add some clarity to that. So remember, one of our competitors had a lot less occupancy than us during their fourth quarter period, which probably leads to more balconies, cabins at higher prices as part of the overall mix. And also, some of our competitors, one of them was not carrying any kids because of the vaccine requirements and kids are at a lower price. So as a result of that too, that affects the overall position. Arnold mentioned the itinerary differences. But what we did do is we lined up the months, October, November and December. And we can do that internally for ourselves compared to our competition. And so if we try to also balance. Remember, occupancy, there's come 2 sides to the equation; there's price and occupancy. And the best way to balance that out is to look at the gross revenue per ALBD as opposed to the gross revenue per PCD. Because I will tell you, if all I did was sell one penthouse suite on one ship and didn't sell anything else, my per PCD would be incredibly high. But when you balance it all out, the revenue per ALBD reduction because, of course, the occupancy was down in all 3 companies, we're the same, within 2 percentage points. So the reduction in revenue per ALBD was at 2 percentage points difference between all 3 companies. And so I think we are, as Arnold said, we're doing better in some areas, and we're well positioned and looking forward to, as I said, 2023 and providing 14 million memorable vacation experiences to people around the globe.

It's mind-boggling how many refinancings you guys did. So David, a question to you. How should we model interest expense going forward? I think you probably have hit the lowest-lying fruit at this point. Do you expect that there could be further significant savings on interest expense into the back half of the year and possibly 2023?

Yes. So in terms of interest expense, we did give a forecast in the business update, which was $1.5 billion. And it was the same interest expense forecast we gave back in December. So that is our forecast for the full year 2022. We do have the opportunity, as I mentioned before, to refinance the 2L notes at some point in the future. And we'll carefully look at that opportunity, and that might provide some interest savings over time. But on the flip side, we're all watching the Fed and there is the possibility for rates to move up. So at this point, it is a little premature to forecast 2023. If you know exactly what the Fed is going to do and all, let me know. But it is difficult. But it's going to be in that neighborhood, plus or minus, as you think it through in 2023.

It's great news that Australia is opening up. And obviously, that will be more helpful during the winter season 2022, 2023. Given that Spirit will be permanently based in the U.S., are you thinking of adding another Carnival ship so that you have a little bit more scale as opposed to just one ship? And do you think that China is an opportunity that might come online within the current fiscal year?

We are very pleased that the Australian government is not extending the cruise ban beyond April 17. As you know, P&O Australia will begin selling cruises again in late May, which allows us to bring joy back to cruise vacations for Australians and provide an opportunity for those wanting to cruise in Australia. Regarding China, we need to see how the situation develops. Currently, it's not feasible, and as we've stated previously, we will only resume operations there when it is profitable. We continue to engage with the relevant authorities to eventually reopen for cruises in a logical manner for everyone involved. Overall, I am optimistic about our situation; about 75% of our ships are now in operation. The decision to add another Carnival ship in Australia will be made over time, but based on historical demand in the region, it seems reasonable to anticipate that Carnival could expand its presence there once operations ramp up again. However, as of now, we do not have specific plans in place and will wait to see how things unfold.

The only thing I just wanted to remind everybody is that remember, Carnival Cruise Lines moved out 6 ships during the pause in guest cruise operations. And so as a result of that, as Arnold said, we'll relook at it. But everything needs to be reexamined to make sure we optimize the cash flow and profitability of Carnival Cruise Lines.

Yes, and Carnival is doing so well. I mean it's lead the way period, in terms of occupancy, has been strong yields. We've had unbelievable bookings the past few weeks, wave level bookings in the Carnival brand in the last few weeks here and is super positive for the brand and a good, hopefully, leading indicator for the overall industry.

It does seem that wave season is being extended. And I imagine it's not just the pause or the slowdown because of Omicron, but also because people have been cooped up for 2 years. And it might be taking a little bit longer to make those decisions given uncertainty, COVID or geopolitical. So hopefully, we'll continue to see a great booking volume stream over the next weeks.

Absolutely. Yes, there's no question, consumer confidence, uncertainty driven by all the various dynamics, COVID, the invasion in Ukraine and all that. But clearly, there's momentum.

Yes. Just a couple of points I'd be interested in. The first one is on the dry dock days. Could you just give some color on sort of the number of days that you're expecting in the first half of '22 versus '19, perhaps also a full year if you have it? And then how that should shape up for '23. I'm assuming you're putting through a lot of dry dock days that will therefore not be required next year. And just the second is on the Omicron impact. What was the damaged occupancy from cancellations due to Omicron, if you could give us some flavor on that?

I'll address the second part and let David discuss the dry dock days. Regarding Omicron, as we mentioned earlier, it clearly impacted consumer confidence and caused disruptions. Some individuals tested positive, preventing them from cruising, while others faced delays in receiving test results. Additionally, the overall societal impact and the uncertainty that Omicron brought were significant. It's challenging to measure this effect and isolate it solely to Omicron versus other factors. However, it clearly influenced our situation and contributed to our belief that we are experiencing an extended wave season with a current rebound. We managed to get through this just like we did with Delta, and now we see strong momentum and positive trends. David, please go ahead with the details on dry dock days.

Yes. So the dry dock days, in the first quarter, we have 273 days versus 141 in 2019. In the second quarter, there's 399 days versus 184 days in 2019. For the full year, this year, right now, the plan is 802 dry dock days. We have some additional dry docks in the fourth quarter. I only have at the moment the first half of 2023. By the way, most many of the dry docks are usually either the first half or the fourth quarter. But the first half is down to, in '23, 272 days. There'll probably be some more in the fourth quarter. But you can see the number of dry dock days will be significantly less. 802 is an unusually large number. I don't think we've ever exceeded. I think something in the range of 550 was probably the largest number we ever had. But as I mentioned in my notes, we're bringing back the ships. We're optimizing it. The ships are not in service. And we want to make sure the ships look great when the guests get back onboard. And of course, we are cleaning the hull. Because I will tell you, you get those hulls clean, and it is incredibly much more efficient from a fuel perspective. So we are optimizing the situation. I don't have the full year 2019 at my fingertips. I do apologize. But perhaps Beth can get back to you on that one.

No, that was very helpful. Could I just circle back to the first question? I mean would it be fair to say that if we were to see another variant, each iteration of the variant, Delta to Omicron, you're a, recovering faster; but b, also seeing less of an impact because the human nature is we're getting more used to it? Would that be a fair observation at least?

I think it will depend on what happens with the variants. However, it's clear that society is better prepared now. There is a greater understanding of how transmission and epidemiology work. Many more people are vaccinated, which is a significant factor. Additionally, fewer people are experiencing severe illness from variants like Omicron or its subtypes. Consequently, the focus is shifting to where it should be: on hospitalizations and long-term effects, which are more concerning. As long as society doesn't see a major increase in those issues from new variants, it's true that people are learning to live safely and comfortably with the situation. Our protocols have been effective; on our ships, we are experiencing far fewer incidents compared to those on land, thanks to our testing and vaccination measures. We have become one of the safest options for social interaction, and we have learned to manage this well. Throughout the pandemic, including during Delta and Omicron surges, our incident rates have been much lower than on land, and we are skilled at prioritizing public health. Overall, society is adapting, and as long as hospitalizations do not significantly rise, the current trend is likely to continue.

And remember, test is much more available. That will be very helpful as well. Because in the first quarter, that was a big issue for us, on the testing side.

I was hoping you could give a little bit more detail on the sailings where you are seeing occupancy over 100%. It sounds like that might be mostly concentrated in the Carnival brand. But are those largely South Florida departures? Are you seeing pretty broad-based strength in terms of where those are located or home porting, anything else to add would be great.

The focus is definitely more on North America, particularly the Carnival brand. A better way to describe this would be traditional itineraries that customers are accustomed to. In many instances, we have had to implement ultra-itineraries due to unavailable destinations or the presence of protocols that complicated travel logistics. However, the key takeaway is that we are observing many sailings operating at over 100% capacity, indicating a strong recovery. We are capable of achieving 100% occupancy while adhering to health protocols, leading to positive health and safety outcomes. However, several destinations still have restrictions and additional protocols in place. With nine brands operating globally, we face various regulations and protocols not only in our home markets but also in destinations, which pose challenges. Nevertheless, these challenges are diminishing, and we are gradually moving towards full occupancy and ensuring that all our ships are sailing.

Yes. Our commentary was quite general. I anticipate that fuel prices will improve compared to the current spot price. However, we are not providing specific guidance. Although fuel prices impact the bottom line, there remains a broad range where we still align with the profit and loss guidance we provided.

Thank you, all. Operator, thank you very much. But everyone, thank you. We appreciate your interest in us. We're very excited about welcoming people back onboard. Again, our heart goes out to all of those impacted by the invasion of Ukraine. But we're looking forward to peace there and brighter days ahead. Thank you.

Thank you very much. That does conclude the call for today. We thank you for your participation. Please disconnect your lines. Have a good day, everyone.