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Q2 2026 Extra Space Storage Inc. Earnings Conference Call

Extra Space Storage Inc. (EXR)

Earnings Call FY2026 Q2 Call date: 2026-07-29 Concluded

Call highlights

Extra Space Storage reported strong Q2 2026 results with Core FFO per share of $2.15 (up 4.9% year-over-year), same-store revenue growth of 2.4% and same-store NOI growth of 3.5%, and raised its full-year 2026 Core FFO guidance to $8.25–$8.40 per share.

“We raised same store revenue growth guidance 100 basis points to a range of 1% to 2%. We also raised our same-store NOI guidance 200 basis points to a range of positive 0.5% to 2.5%.”

— Jeff Norman, CFO · jump to moment

“We are seeing broad-based improvement across many of our markets, supported by steady customer demand, strong retention of existing customers, and gradually moderating new supply.”

— Joe Margolis, CEO · jump to moment
Bullish
  • Core FFO per share grew 4.9% YoY to $2.15, exceeding internal forecast
  • Same-store revenue accelerated 70 bps from Q1 to 2.4% growth, and same-store NOI accelerated 230 bps to 3.5% growth
  • Raised full-year 2026 Core FFO guidance to $8.25–$8.40 per share, same-store revenue guidance up 100 bps to 1%–2%, and same-store NOI guidance up 200 bps to 0.5%–2.5%
  • Same-store expenses declined 0.5% YoY with all major expense categories at or better than expectations
  • Closed 18 stores for $91 million in acquisitions (per remarks) and originated $141 million in bridge loans, ending with ~$1.5 billion outstanding
  • Added 67 stores (48 net) to third-party management, bringing total managed portfolio to 1,964 stores and 2,373 total managed stores
Bearish
  • LA price restriction assumption remains a 20–30 bps headwind to full-year same-store revenue
  • New customers still exhibit some price sensitivity and consumer confidence/headline macro risks are being factored into guidance
  • Same-store occupancy ended Q2 at 94.2%, down from 94.4% a year earlier
  • Sun Belt markets Houston, Tampa, and Phoenix remained difficult; markets within the Sun Belt are not all recovering at the same pace
  • Net income per diluted share for the six-month period decreased 2.5% YoY due to a prior-year gain from real estate assets sold in 2025

Guidance

from the 8-K filed Jul 28, 2026
Metric Guided
Core FFO table Raised
year ending December 31, 2026
$8.25 – $8.40
Dilution per share from C of O and value add acquisitions table Lowered
year ending December 31, 2026
$0.17
Same-store revenue growth table Raised
year ending December 31, 2026
1% – 2%
Same-store expense growth table Lowered
year ending December 31, 2026
1% – 2%
Same-store NOI growth table Initiated
year ending December 31, 2026
0.5% – 2.5%
Weighted average one-month SOFR table Initiated
year ending December 31, 2026
3.73%
Net tenant reinsurance income table Raised
year ending December 31, 2026
$294M – $296M
Management fees and other income table Lowered
year ending December 31, 2026
$139M – $140M
Interest income table Raised
year ending December 31, 2026
$153M – $154M
Equity in earnings of real estate ventures table Maintained
year ending December 31, 2026
$63.5M – $64.5M
General and administrative expenses table Lowered
year ending December 31, 2026
$188M – $189.5M
Interest expense table Raised
year ending December 31, 2026
$595M – $598M
Income Tax Expense table Raised
year ending December 31, 2026
$48M – $49M
Acquisitions table Initiated
year ending December 31, 2026
$300M
Bridge loans outstanding table Initiated
year ending December 31, 2026
$1.48B

Guidance from the call

stated verbally on the call, extracted from the transcript
Metric Guided
Core FFO Raised
full year 2026
$8.25 – $8.40
Same store revenue growth Initiated
full year 2026
1% – 2%
Same-store NOI Raised
full year 2026
0.5% – 2.5%

Transcript

Verified speakers · tap a word to jump the audio 52:05 Audio
Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us and welcome to the Extra Space Storage, Inc. Q2 2026 earnings conference call. After today's prepared remarks, I will host a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again. I will now hand the conference over to Jared Conley, VP of Investor Relations. Jared, please go ahead.

Jared Conley Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, Connor. Welcome to Extraspace Storage's second quarter 2026 earnings call. In addition to our press release, we have furnished unaudited supplemental financial information on our website. Please remember that management's prepared remarks and answers to your questions may contain forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Actual results could differ materially from those stated or implied by our forward-looking statements due to risks and uncertainties associated with the company's business. These forward-looking statements are qualified by the cautionary statements contained in the company's latest filing with the SEC, which we encourage our listeners to review. Forward-looking statements represent management's estimates as of today, July 29, 2026. The company assumes no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements because of changing market conditions or other circumstances after the date of this conference call. I would like to now turn the call over to Joe Margolis, Chief Executive Officer.

Thank you, Jared, and thank you everyone for joining today's call. In addition to our CFO, Jeff Norman, I am joined today by our President, Noah Springer. I am pleased to report a strong second quarter for extra space storage. We delivered core FFO per share of $2.15, representing a 4.9% year-over-year growth, a result that reflects both the quality of our platform and the improving operating environment. Our same-store revenue grew by 2.4% in the second quarter, exceeding our internal projections and accelerating from the first quarter. Occupancy ended the quarter at 94.2% as our systems effectively balanced rate and occupancy to optimize revenue across the portfolio. The pricing power we have been building over the past several quarters is now clearly flowing through our results. And with same-store expenses declining modestly year over year, same-store NOI also accelerated, demonstrating the leverage in our operating model. We are seeing broad-based improvement across many of our markets, supported by steady customer demand, strong retention of existing customers, and gradually moderating new supply. While new customers still exhibit some price sensitivity, we continue to capture a disproportionate share of the market due to our best-in-class digital marketing, pricing, and operating systems. The rate gains we established throughout 2025 and into 2026 are now embedded in our revenue base, and we're encouraged by the momentum heading into the second half of the year. Our company, built around operational depth, cutting-edge technology, financial flexibility, and diversified growth channels is well-positioned to continue to outperform the industry. With that, I'll turn it over to our president, Noah Springer, to discuss our external growth initiatives.

Thank you, Joe. Our external growth platform continued to perform well across multiple channels in the second quarter. In the acquisition market, we were both disciplined and active. We closed 18 stores for $91 million, almost all of which were off-market transactions. Our scale, reputation, and long-standing relationships give us broad access to deal flow, and we're seeing many opportunities. That said, asset pricing remains elevated, and we're maintaining our underwriting standards and staying disciplined with a focus on long-term accretion rather than chasing volume. We have significant growth capital to be opportunistic and we will continue to use our balance sheet and joint venture structures as part of our external growth strategy. We take pride in being strong capital allocators and we will remain focused on opportunities that enhance portfolio quality and generate accretive returns for our shareholders. Our bridge loan program had another strong quarter. We originated $141 million in new loans and ended the quarter with approximately $1.5 billion in outstanding balances. The Bridge Loan program creates value on multiple levels. This program generates attractive interest income in addition to earning management fees and tenant insurance. Finally, the program creates a natural pipeline for future acquisitions as we continue to consolidate our fragmented industry. Third-party management also delivers similar benefits. We added 67 stores during the quarter with net growth of 48 stores, bringing our year-to-date net growth to 108 stores and our total managed portfolio to 1,964 stores at quarter end. The steady demand for our management reflects what owners experience firsthand. Our platform consistently drives superior property performance through operational expertise, sophisticated revenue management, and technology infrastructure that scales across more than 4,400 stores. Now, I'll turn it over to our CFO, Jeff Norman.

Thank you, Joe and Noah. Our FFO growth of 4.9% exceeded our internal forecast and was driven primarily by store-level performance. Year-over-year same-store revenue growth accelerated 70 basis points from the first quarter to 2.4 percent. Same-store NOI accelerated 230 basis points, increased 3.5 percent year-over-year. Same-store expenses decreased modestly year-over-year with all major categories at or better than our internal expectations. Our discipline translated directly into accelerated NOI growth. Our ancillary businesses also contributed to our FFO outperformance. Net tenant insurance income exceeded our forecast due to stronger penetration and lower claims volume. Interest income was also ahead of estimates due to modestly higher interest rates and higher than modeled loan retention. Our low leverage balance sheet remained strong with significant access to capital. At the end of June, we priced a $550 million bond offering at 4.9%, which settled the first week of July. Proceeds for the offering were used to pay off our first bond maturity on July 1st. Today, we have roughly $2 billion available on our revolving lines of credit, net of amounts held available as a backstop for our commercial paper program, which gives us significant flexibility to move quickly on investment opportunities. Shifting to guidance, last night we raised our full year 2026 FFO output. Our core FFO is now expected in the range of $8.25 to $8.40 per share. We raised same store revenue growth guidance 100 basis points to a range of 1% to 2%. We also raised our same-store NOI guidance 200 basis points to a range of positive 0.5% to 2.5%. We refined our Los Angeles price restriction assumption, and our updated guidance reflects approximately 20 to 30 basis points of headwind for the full year, compared to our initial estimate of 40 basis points. In summary, we are having a solid summer leasing season, same-store NOI and core FFO are both ahead of expectations. Our balance sheet is strong and prepared for additional future growth, and we continue to benefit from having the strongest team, portfolio, and platform in the industry, which all have contributed to our results. With that, operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If you would like to ask a question, again, please press star 1 to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star 1 again. We also ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. And if you're muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. All right, your first question is from the line of Michael Goldsmith with UBS.

Eric Wolfe Analyst — Citi

Good afternoon. Thanks a lot for taking my question.

Michael Goldsmith Analyst — UBS

The same store revenue growth in the first half of 2% is equal to the high end of your updated 2026 guidance, implying a deceleration in the back half. So one, what would drive a deceleration in the back half? And then two, did you change any of your assumptions for the back half outside of updating for LA. Thanks.

Yeah, thanks, Mike. You're spot on that depending on where you are in the range, the high end, it implies that same store revenue growth is similar to that of what we experienced in the first half of the year, and that at the low end of the range, it implies some deceleration. And a couple of factors play into that. The first is, as we move deeper into the year, we do experience more difficult comps. So we're mindful of that. And second, while we haven't seen any change in customer health, be it existing customers or customers that are all performing consistently as they have been throughout the year, we're not unaware of the headlines and some of the macro risks related to the customer out there. We read a lot about consumer confidence being low, about there being pressure from inflation and other macro forces. and we feel like those risks are appropriate to factor into the range. All of that said, we factored those into our original range and didn't fill those specifically in the first two quarters. And so far, I've really not felt them in July. July was quite similar to June. So to the extent that those don't materialize, it presents an opportunity with the guidance, but we think the prudence is reasonable given those macro factors.

Michael Goldsmith Analyst — UBS

Got it. Thanks for that. And then since you brought it up, can you give us an update of what you're seeing so far in July? And it sounds like it's been pretty similar to June, but I would love to get your thoughts on the metrics.

Sure, Michael. This is Joe. July was a good month for us. You know, just as a comparison, in June, we were slightly ahead in rate year over year, but we're slightly behind in occupancy. And in July, the system flipped that. We're now slightly ahead in occupancy and slightly behind in rate. And this is a great example, I think, of our systems using different levers to optimize performance over the long term. And the net result of that is, you know, so far through however many days, we are slightly ahead of our budget in July. So we're having a good month.

Michael Goldsmith Analyst — UBS

Thank you very much. Good luck in the back half.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Michael Griffin with Evercore. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Michael Griffin Analyst — Evercore

Great. Thanks. John, I know you touched on this a little bit in your prepared remarks, but I'm just curious if you can expand on the customer demand side of the equation. Has top of funnel improved at all? Has the pie expanded? Are you still just sort of competing against the same customer base? And, you know, as you look at this inflection and acceleration and same-store fundamentals, is it mostly driven by a moderating supply picture, or is there anything from sort of organic customer demand that you're seeing that gets you incrementally more positive?

Yeah, our view is that customer demand is steady. We haven't seen any pickup in the housing market. We don't see any indications through our various channels that there's more customers out there. But our systems are able to not only capture more than our share of customers. We've had the highest occupancy at the highest rates in the industry for many, many, many quarters and years now. But we're also capturing better quality customers through some of our channel pricing and other strategies. So I think the short answer is demand is steady, performance is improving because of the continued reduction in supply, and our systems are optimizing what's available in the market.

Michael Griffin Analyst — Evercore

Thanks, Joe. That's certainly some helpful context. Maybe one next for Noah on the transaction market. Can you just give us a sense of, you know, whether it was the deals you closed this quarter, sort of how we should think about those on either a cap rate or an unlevered IRR basis, and then, you know, talk a little bit about the competition that you're seeing, the interest from private capital, just as it relates to kind of institutional self-storage quality product.

Sure, Griff. Thanks for the question. You know, what we're seeing is the market out there continues to be a little expensive. And where cap rates are coming in on the broker deals tends to push us towards our proprietary pipelines that we have. So we continue to close deals that are relationship deals, that are managed deals, and that are joint ventures and bridge loans. We tend to go to those because as those deals come up and they're ready for us to harvest, they end up being great deals for us and for our partners. kind of the whole idea of all of those pipelines that we have. Quite a few of the stores, in fact, the majority of the stores that we closed this quarter were from a relationship deal that we had, and we're happy with that and happy with the accretion that we got from those stores, and we'll continue to look towards that as the market tends to be a little more expensive than we want to do on the brokerage side.

Michael Griffin Analyst — Evercore

Great. That's it for me. Thanks for the time. Thanks, Chris.

Operator

The next question is from Todd Thomas with KeyBank Capital Markets. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Todd Thomas Analyst — KeyBanc Capital Markets

Yeah, hi, thanks. I wanted to ask, so Joe, you talked about the July trends, you know, and mentioned that the comps get a bit more difficult in the second half. Do you see potential for move-in rent to move ahead year over year again in the back half of the year? And, you know, you sort of mentioned the combination of the slightly higher occupancy and the slightly lower move in rents in July. You know, the combination of that, you're still tracking ahead of plan. But, you know, is that an environment longer term in which, you know, revenue growth can continue to improve generally from from these levels?

Sure. There's there's a lot of factors that can lead to revenue growth. I mean, as you point out, rate and occupancy are two of the most important ones, but there's others such as ECRI, unit mix optimization, other tools we have to have positive revenue growth.

Todd Thomas Analyst — KeyBanc Capital Markets

Okay. And then I wanted to also ask about the New York City settlement. I was just curious if there are any implications or any additional considerations from that suit, or is that in the rearview mirror at this point? And then can you also comment separately on, you know, the licensing and registration requirements for operators in New York City? Curious to get your view around the impact that has on the industry, whether you think it could ultimately, you know, sort of strengthen the competitive positioning for some larger, well-capitalized players or, you know, whether that's, you know, sort of a net negative potentially. Just just curious to get your thoughts on on that.

Sure. So just to set the table, what we're talking about, we there was a claim made against us by New York City based on 117 complaints they got over three years. We had one hundred and thirty thousand customers over those three years. And we continue to vigorously dispute those claims. We do not agree with them at all. But that being said, we were forced with the choice of entering a lengthy litigation process in New York City or settling this case for $1.7 million and putting it behind us. and we felt the best thing for our shareholders was to take out the uncertainty and put this behind us. So we have settled the case. There's no repercussions or reverberations that we see or have felt elsewhere in the country or in New York. This matter is now behind us. With respect to the second part of your question, all self-storage operators in New York City will be required to have a license on, I think, August 24th of this year. We are prepared to file the papers, pay the very modest fee, and get licensed. And in connection with that license, there will be a series of requirements of how you have to operate. we're still we the industry are still waiting to see the final list of requirements that will come with that and I guess all I could say is one they'll apply to everyone so be an even playing field and two we will comply with the law all right thank you sure thanks Todd the next question is from Brendan Lynch with Barclays.

Operator

Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Brendan Lynch Analyst — Barclays

Great. Thanks for taking the questions. Jeff, I just wanted to follow up on your commentary about macro risks and consumer confidence. Sounds like you're being a little bit conservative in guidance because of the potential for those risks to emerge. So the question is, in the past, when we have had situations where the macro environment did deteriorate or consumer confidence starts Wayne, how quickly did you see that in actual customer behavior? And how quickly did it impact the same-store NOI results?

Good question, Brennan. And I hate to give you a mushy answer, but it depends. As we've looked at different types of economic stress in different types of cycles, they haven't all performed the same. But in general, we've seen demand hold pretty steady and in some cases even accelerate through some of those types of environments because life transitions give rise to storage and sometimes economic strain can cause more life transitions. So from a demand standpoint, it's generally been steady to even accelerated. On the other hand, you may also deal with vacates. And we have not seen elevated vacate activity in our stores. In fact, our length of stay continues to elongate as we think of our in-place customers on a year-over-year basis. It's about one and a half months longer than it was last year. So we haven't seen it yet, but as you see all these headlines out there, as you look at what the consumer is facing, we certainly think it's a reasonable risk to be mindful of. But to your point, we have not felt it in our customer behavior year to date. And so if that continues to be the case, then that assumption would potentially prove conservative.

Brendan Lynch Analyst — Barclays

Great. Thanks. That's helpful. And maybe just to follow up on that, in terms of length of stay, that's certainly an improvement. I think we've seen some other improvements in customer quality in terms of churn and lower bad debt, higher occupancy in the offseason. How much further do you think you can go in terms of improving the average customer's behavior in the portfolio and kind of just maintaining that customer relationship for a longer time to benefit from their stay in your facilities?

Yeah, that's a very good question, but also a hard one to answer. I don't know if we have like a goal for length of stay or any of these other metrics, but our scale and the amount of data we have allows us to continually test ways to optimize performance. How do we get a better customer? How do we keep them longer? Just all kinds of different metrics. So I can say with confidence, we continually try to improve across all of these metrics. We have been improving. We have a good track record, but I don't know how far we have to go.

Brendan Lynch Analyst — Barclays

Okay, very good.

Operator

Your next question is from Ronald Camden from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Ronald Camden Analyst — Morgan Stanley

Hey, just two quick ones. Just starting on the expense side, you know, really it looks like outside of property taxes, most of the line items was down, driving that sort of negative growth. Just thinking sort of long term about what more opportunities do you have on the expense saving side? Is there a scenario where expense growth can be lower than inflation?

Yeah, thanks for the question, Ron. we're really pleased with what we've seen on the expense side this year and how we've been able to continue to leverage our scale to become more efficient. And I know you'd mentioned that long term, I'll start with the year. As you look at the run rates we've had year to date in the first half and what we're guiding to for the full year, it implies that we stay in those sub-inflationary ranges, which we view as a real positive, especially in the face of some of the less controllable line items like property taxes, as you mentioned. Long term, while we won't guide or forecast into future years, I think that advantage, that scale advantage and the efficiencies that it will continue to be an operational advantage for extra space. So I anticipate that we can continue to leverage those opportunities. One specific one maybe that I'll call out is on the insurance expense line item, we have a mid-year renewal, which we've completed, that was very favorable. It was only applicable for the month of June within the second quarter, and you can see the positive impact that that negative year-over-year change in our premiums had, and that will continue to flow through the rest of this year and into 27. So several reasons to be optimistic on the expense side looking forward.

Ronald Camden Analyst — Morgan Stanley

Great. And then my second question was just on the back to the external growth. Obviously, the acquisition guidance went up. I guess I'd just love to hear what you're seeing in the market in terms of cap rates, in terms of expected IRs and so forth. And I think historically, you've talked about just pricing really not making a lot of sense for you guys to be really sort of aggressive and so forth. Just curious if that's still the thought and how you guys go about it. Thanks.

We're looking at our underwriting discipline and continue to stay very disciplined in that. While asset pricing remains elevated, When we say that, I would say in anywhere from A to C markets, you're probably somewhere from the high fours to the high fives, if you want to look between those markets. So where we look at that, we're going to continue to harvest deals from our proprietary pipelines, where it makes sense for us and where we continue to have deals that are accreted to us over our cost of capital.

Ronald Camden Analyst — Morgan Stanley

Thanks so much.

Thanks, Ron.

Operator

The next question is from Samir Kanal from Bank of America. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Samir Kanaal Analyst — Bank of America

Good afternoon, Jeff. I'm sorry if I missed this, but on the moving rates, I know you excluded LA, but just curious, where would that have been if LA was included? And just to confirm, does that have much of a benefit for you and 2Q?

Thanks for the question, Samir. We recognize that that number is one that is viewed not only to model our actual performance, but as a proxy for overall new customer health for our portfolio and across the industry. To include LA County, which is artificially regulated, doesn't make a lot of sense from our perspective because you're going to be comparing apples and oranges a little bit, especially as you think back to your comp period last year when those restrictions were in place. So I won't provide a full portfolio number, but I can tell you that internally, we think of it the same way. We are not using that data. We're focused on it, SANS, Los Angeles County, because that's really the best proxy for what we're seeing across the portfolio.

Samir Kanaal Analyst — Bank of America

Okay. And then I guess, Joe, certainly positive comments around the supply side of things. Maybe elaborate kind of, you know, which markets are seeing less supply given that demand is steady here. Thanks.

I think you're seeing lower supply in almost all markets. Now, that doesn't mean that when there's still stores being delivered and in that micro market, right, when we talk about self-storage markets, we're talking about very, very small areas, you know, that's bad for that market and negative. But when we talk about MSAs in large markets, I think you're seeing a decline in deliveries in almost all MSAs.

Operator

The next question is from Jack Armstrong with Wells Fargo. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Jack Armstrong Analyst — Wells Fargo

Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. Can you characterize your ability to push ECRIs in the back half, particularly following a couple of quarters of lower return and extended length of stay?

You're a little garbled in the question. It might be a systems problem. Do you mind repeating the question?

Jack Armstrong Analyst — Wells Fargo

Yeah, sorry. Hopefully this is a little clearer. Can you characterize your ability to push ECRIs in the back half?

So I think the question is about, you know, ECRI, pushing ECRIs in the back half of the year. So we take a longer view on ECRIs and don't try to, you know, maximize in any one quarter or two quarters because customers are extraordinarily sticky. And when we test different ECRI levels, it's really hard to – we don't see increased move-outs, even with increasing ECRI. But that being fair, we need to have a long-term, fair, sustainable program, and that's what we seek instead of maximizing ECRI.

Jack Armstrong Analyst — Wells Fargo

Okay, that's helpful. Thank you. And then how should we be thinking about the growth in the bridge loan business going forward? Is $1.5 billion where you're comfortable keeping that book, or do you plan to grow further from here?

Yeah, the $1.5 billion, I think, is a good number for us. I think we'll continue to see it there. If we want to flex up or down, we can always sell the A's or hold the A's a little bit longer. But where we are currently, I think that's a good spot for us.

Jack Armstrong Analyst — Wells Fargo

Okay, helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from the line of Eric Wolf with Citi. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

It's Nick Joseph here with Eric. In the release, Joe, in your quote, you mentioned that you're never satisfied. I was wondering if there's any meaning or anything you're trying to convey with that quote kind of on the go forward in terms of any changes, either technology or M&A or kind of broader thoughts on the business to keep driving the results.

Yeah, thanks for the question. I think what's important to understand about extra space is we're constantly trying to sharpen our tools. We're constantly innovating. We're using our data and technology to test. And it's really a lot of small gains. We're getting a little bit better at this, a little bit better at that. I'm not in any way announcing, you know, brand new extra space or any big changes, but certainly want to give the impression that, you know, we're never satisfied with our systems and our technology stack and our processes, and we're always trying to get a little bit better. And I think it shows up in the results.

Eric Wolfe Analyst — Citi

Thanks for that. This is Eric. I had a bit of a specific question, but, you know, you talked in the beginning about the acceleration you saw in the first half on same-store revenue, obviously guiding the deceleration in the back half. But I guess given the boost from LA, is it not possible that we see, you know, a third quarter sort of acceleration from the second quarter? And maybe if you could just share for the back half of the year, how much LA should boost same-store revenue growth just in the back half?

So at the beginning of the year, we estimated that the restrictions in L.A., if they were in place for a full year, would provide a 40 basis point headwind. So right around mid-year, they were lifted, but we don't get the whole benefit from that, you know, exactly on the day they're lifted. So now we're estimating it's a 20 to 30 basis point headwind as opposed to a 40 basis point headwind. So some help, but not very significant. Okay.

Eric Wolfe Analyst — Citi

And so I guess the other part really was just on third quarter. I know everyone always tries to set up things to outperform, but is there sort of a path, like either in occupancy or HRIs, everyone just pays attention to moving rates, where sort of seems to revenue could accelerate in the third quarter? or is that just sort of an unlikely thing to happen?

Yeah, good question, Eric. And I appreciate the way you asked. I think there is perhaps too much focus singularly on new customer rate as the only driver of revenue. And as we've talked about on the call, there's multiple other levers in short. There's always an opportunity to continue to accelerate revenue.

Speaker 10

We haven't necessarily guided to that, but it is certainly possible. okay thank you thank you the next question is from brad heffern with rbc your line is open please go ahead yeah thanks everybody um talked in the past about how the last few peak seasons have been sort of truncated uh and the explanation has generally been the lack of housing mobility i'm curious um did you see any difference in the shape of the curve uh or the strength of the peak this year?

Good question, Brad. And no, I would say no different than what we've seen the last couple of years in a row and very much in line with our expectations. We guided to, modeled, and assumed that we would have no material catalyst from a demand standpoint through the summer leasing season. And I think it's played out in line with that expectation.

Speaker 10

Okay. Got it. And then on the recent move-in rates and occupancy, it sounds like the combination has been pretty flat in June and July. I think the traditional wisdom is that you see the same store revenue converge with moving rates on maybe a 12 or 18 month lag. I'm wondering, do you think like this increase that we've seen into the mid twos and on same store revenue, it's just because you had those high moving rates last year, and that it's more inclined to go back to flat just based on where the leading edge moving rates are? Or am I thinking about that wrong? I know there's tons of things that affect revenue besides moving rates, but just all else being equal.

I think your thesis is correct that, you know, if you look at new customer rates in prior periods, they roll into the rent roll and that gives you a sense for future revenue growth. But it is only one component. And as we spoke earlier on this call, there's other components that could provide positive revenue growth in future periods, even if you have several periods of flat rate growth.

Speaker 18

Okay. Appreciate the thought. Thanks.

Operator

Sure. The next question is from Victor Fadiv from Scotiabank. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Thanks. I wanted to follow up on these move-out trends because it appears that the low housing mobility environment is actually becoming a benefit rather than a headwind, with customers sticking as longer lengths of stay and muted move-outs more than upsetting weaker moving activity. How sustainable do you believe this dynamic is and what specific actions are you taking to maintain these strong retention levels, particularly given that some of your peers are having lower occupancy levels, so they may be more inclined to compete aggressively on price.

So I agree with your point that the reduction in moving customers from the peak of low 60s to about 55% now has largely been replaced by customers who tell us they're storing because they lack space for their goods. And the expected length of stay of those customers is at least twice as long as the moving customers. So that is the benefit of the downturn in the moving of the slowness in the housing market. And the second part of the question, what are we doing? Well, you need to provide an excellent customer experience at the store. Our customer satisfaction rates are in the low 90%. An important part of that is having a manager there to make sure the store is clean and have a relationship with the tenant and address their concerns. And when the tenant gets a rate increase notice, our store managers and call center agents are empowered within certain bounds to address any concerns a customer have. And we end up with about 16% of our customers who get rate increases getting some level of relief and staying in the store through that. So that helps us retain customers. And I'm going to repeat myself. I think it all falls under providing a good experience for the customer and making them want to stay and not seek there. Most of our customers, 76% of our customers, when they leave, it's because they don't need storage anymore. And it's really hard to save those customers if they don't need the product anymore. But the other ones, we can focus on providing a good experience to.

Speaker 12

Makes sense. And then the second question, which markets actually contributed most to their Q2 outperformance versus your initial expectations heading in the 2026?

Yeah, Victor, sorry for what will sound like a vague answer. it really was across the board. We saw general outperformance and some of the stronger markets in terms of total same store revenue growth also had the strongest outperformance. So as you think of some of the Midwest markets, DC, Boston, Chicago, Richmond, Virginia, San Diego, California, across the board, we had a number of markets outperform.

Operator

Thank you. Thanks, Victor. The next question is from Michael Muller of JPMorgan. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Michael Mueller Analyst — JPMorgan

Yes, Joe. Given your comments about not focusing just on move-in rates, do you think you have the mathematical ability to kind of get back to a 3% same-store revenue number without a substantial lift in street rates in a flat occupancy world?

To get to 3% without improvement in occupancy or rate, I think, would be difficult.

Michael Mueller Analyst — JPMorgan

Okay. Do you have a sense as to, I guess, how much of a lift we need to see in street rates to kind of get you back to that level?

I think there's a lot of variables. And to say, to plug in one piece of the formula is difficult without knowing what the others Okay.

Michael Mueller Analyst — JPMorgan

Thank you.

So I feel like I've given you an unsatisfactory answer. We believe if supply continues to decrease and we don't have any significant change in customers, the risks of which Jeff outlined, we think we can get back to kind of historical levels of revenue growth between 3% and 4%. I don't know the time period. Our guidance doesn't suggest it's going to happen this year, but we're certainly in the recovery stage of the storage cycle, and I would expect that's where we end up.

Operator

The next question is from Juan Sanabria of Bank of Montreal. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hi. Good afternoon or good morning. Just a question with regards to kind of the slope of uh same store revenue expected in the second half um should we be thinking with an eye towards the exit run rate or how you'd start 2027 that you're that the rate that the growth in same store revenues is getting smaller because of the comps or that's not necessarily how we should be thinking about any any comments on the slope or the exit run rate would be extremely helpful thank you yeah and apologize for being repetitive one it will depend where you are within the range right if at the high end of the range it would imply a flat slope heading into 2027 at the bottom end

of the range it would imply uh some deceleration into next year and and if we outperform our range altogether, that would imply acceleration into 2027. So we will stick to 2026 for now and let you all forecast 2027 and beyond. But we agree that the slope heading into it will largely impact performance in 2027.

Speaker 7

I guess another way to ask it, are the comps tougher in the fourth quarter than the third quarter because of moving rates last year? Just if you could remind us on how we should think about that?

Yes, the comps do become more difficult, whether it's thinking of new customer movement rate or even just revenue altogether. We started to accelerate revenue beginning in the fourth quarter last year. So yes, the comp does become more difficult.

Speaker 7

And then just my final question. Have you guys leaned on ECRIs, either cadence or percent increases in any noticeable or material way have ECRI grown this year in the contribution to SAMHSA revenue versus last year versus initial guidance or expectations?

No, absent, you know, some testing we're doing, there's been no change in our ECRI policy.

Yeah, and one, you know, this is getting really on the margins, but the only one that I'd point out is with our original guide assumed full year restrictions in Los Angeles County, with that being lifted on the margins, you know, a little better in the back half of the year.

Speaker 7

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Thanks, Juan. The next question is from Spencer Glimcher of Green Street. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Spencer Glimcher Analyst — Green Street

Thank you. Just one on the regulation front for me. How dependent is EXR's revenue management system on consumer-specific data versus broader market-level inputs. And how concerned are you, if at all, that additional legislation regarding surveillance pricing might impede rate algorithms?

Yeah, not concerned. You know, our algorithms are focused on historical data we have for how a certain market and store performs, vacates, rentals, demand at different times of the year, and not any individual customer data or observations.

Spencer Glimcher Analyst — Green Street

Okay, that's very helpful. That's it for me. Thanks, guys.

Thanks.

Operator

The next question is from Omotayo Okosanya of Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 18

Yes, good morning out there. Congrats on a solid quarter. In terms of just this recovery story that I think we're all kind of looking forward to. I'm curious if you could share any thoughts of July, beginning of 3Q, and the kind of some of the operating trends you're seeing, whether D&U is still kind of seeing occupancy holding up, whether you're still kind of seeing improvement in street rates. Any comments you can at least just make to start off the third quarter?

Hi, it's Jeff. As we mentioned earlier in the call, It looks a lot like June from a performance standpoint. I think Joe outlined a little bit that we've swapped a little bit of occupancy for a little bit of rate on the margin. And so far, with a few days left in the month, we're on pace to modestly outperform our revenue expectations. So it continues to be favorable in July and looks a lot like the second quarter.

Speaker 18

Gotcha. On the third-party asset management side, again, increasing store count for you guys, slightly reduced guidance for management fees. Is anything changing there? Is the economics of the third-party asset management changing for new contracts? Just curious, any thoughts there?

Yeah, thanks, Theo. No big change at all. In fact, with this business, there's ups and downs where portfolios sell and portfolios come in. beginning of July, there was a portfolio that sold, not concerning to us. We continue to add properties. We're over 100 properties net so far this year. And, you know, the benefit of this program is that there's a lot of owners and the owners have less than two stores on average per owner. And so most of the time, if anybody, if anybody adds or leaves, it's onesies and twosies that we add or that disappear. But there was one that we had go beginning of July and we'll continue to add and continue to feel very strong about the program. No material change whatsoever.

Speaker 18

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Ravi Vaidya from Mizuho. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Ravi Vaidya Analyst — Mizuho

Hi there. Thanks for taking my question. Hope you all are doing well. Can you describe the operational inflection and momentum that you're seeing in some of your sunbelt markets? How have the street rates been trending? And where do you think same-store revenue for these markets could increase to absent a substantial demand recovery relative to the rest of the portfolio? Thank you.

So we are seeing improvement in some sunbelt markets. Austin, Dallas, Miami We all turn positive in new customer moving rates on a year-over-year basis, all improving markets, but not all markets. Houston, Tampa, still Phoenix, you know, still difficult markets for us. But that's not at all surprising. We don't expect the Sun Belt all to act the same. We don't expect markets within the Sun Belt all to act the same. And it is one of the reasons that our portfolio is designed to be broadly diversified across mostly primary and secondary growth markets, because we know markets don't act the same at the same time. And the more diversification we can get, the more we smooth out our return series.

And, Rob, if I could just add a thought there, I think that's one thing that makes us even more excited about our performance this year in general is relative to the market. We're a little overweight, the Sun Belt, and despite the drag from those markets that haven't had a stronger performance, we've still had pretty significant same-store revenue acceleration. And at some point, those markets will continue to flip and accelerate and, I think, give another leg to that growth.

Ravi Vaidya Analyst — Mizuho

Got it. Thank you so much. Thanks, Ravi.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Joe Margolis, CEO, for closing remarks.

Great. Thank you, everyone, for your interest in our company. Our team is happy to report very solid results and the ability to raise guidance. These results stem from success across all aspects of the platform. Our stores are outperforming expectations. Our expense control is very positive, both at the store level and at the G&A level. And we're getting solid contributions from our ancillary businesses. So we're encouraged on where we are in the cycle and confident that we have the machine to optimize results going forward. Thank you and look forward to talking to you next quarter.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

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