Forum Energy Technologies, Inc. (FET) August 2026 Conference Transcript

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for attending. Our next president, I'm John McNamara with three-part advisors. Our next presentation is Forum Energy Technologies. Forum is a global provider of value-added solutions that increase the efficiency of energy production. The stock trades on the New York under the symbol F-E-T. And with us from management is Neil Lux, Chief Executive Officer. With that, I'll turn it over to Neil. Thank you, John.

Good afternoon, everyone. Great to be here, and I look forward to, you know, spending the next 30 minutes or so talking about the FETE story. Again, quick beginning here, forward-looking, non-GAAP. I think everyone's well aware of that and how exciting that can be. Shooting over to Forum Energy Technologies at a glance. So we are a global manufacturer. We make products that make energy production more efficient. We address the market really with two primary segments. So our artificial lift and downhole segment and our drilling and completion segment. So those two segments have really maybe different characteristics, and I'll talk a little bit about that. First, on our artificial lift and downhole, we sell directly to operators. So these are the companies that own the hydrocarbons, own the land, produce the oil, produce the gas. Companies like ExxonMobil, Canadian Natural Resources, Saudi Aramco. In this segment, we provide products that help them produce more oil and do it at a lower cost. Our other segment, drilling completions there, which is about 60% of our revenue, we sell to the world's largest oil field service companies. So companies like Halliburton, Schlumberger, Baker Hughes. And the products that we sell there help them drill better, faster, frack faster, have more efficiency, as well as install subsea infrastructure with robotics. So that's where our revenue lies in our segments, looking at it regionally. So about half of our sales are in the U.S. The other half are outside. So wherever energy is produced, we're selling. Again, our industry is a global one, so we need to go where the energy is produced. And then looking at our revenue by purchase cycle type, next little pie there, about 80% of our sales are what we call activity-based consumables. So if a rig is running and they're doing activity, they're going to consume product, and that's about 80% of our sales today. If you think about our consumables, these aren't nuts and bolts. These are usually big-ticket items that sell for tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of dollars per unit. They wear out over time, so in two, three, or four months, the product wears out, and the customer drives back to our facility, and we reload them with another activity-based consumable. So that's about 80% of our sales. The rest on the capital side is equipment that we provide that helps our customers increase their efficiency. So if you think about a drilling rig, we don't make the entire rig. What we do is provide equipment that makes that rig more efficient. So we make iron roughneck, which is a tool that joins pipe together. So we have one that allows them to be quicker as they drill a hole, pulling pipe in and out of it. So that's our kind of revenue at a glance. Thinking about our financial performance, in the dark blue is our revenue. So our growth from 2021 of just about $540 million in sales to the midpoint this year of 2026 of about $890 million. So strong growth on the top line. Looking below that, the light blue, that strong revenue growth has translated to really good EBITDA. So going from about $20 million of EBITDA in 2021 to the midpoint guidance this year at $120 million. So 6x in about five years. Margins have also increased from about 4% to, again, the midpoint here would be 13. So looking at FET at a glance, again, we're a manufacturer. We sell our products around the world. We're more focused on consumables or activity-driven sales. And we've had, I think, really good financial performance. I think more importantly than who we are, it's, you know, why should you be interested? Why FET? Why are we a good company? But more importantly, why are we a good investment? First, it starts with our track record. We have a track record of outperformance. Second, we are an incredible value. Third, we've had significant capital returns and a very good capital allocation policy. And fourth, we're poised for growth. So I think over the next few minutes, I'm going to hit each one of these, starting with our track record. So as we think about our track record and our performance, comparing ourselves to the Russell 2000, again, the index that we're a part of, looking at the top line, we've had 10% compound annual growth versus only about 7% for the Russell 2000. However, where we really stand out is on the cash line. Our adjusted cash flow growth has grown at about a 46% compound annual growth rate versus zero for the Russell. How have we done that? Well, we've had great market share gains, and I'll talk about that, as well as some acquisitions. We have high operating leverage. So when we grow the top line, we turn 25% to 35% of that incremental revenue into EBITDA. and with our capital light business model we turned 60 to 70 percent of that incremental EBITDA into free cash flow so we've had strong financial outperformance on key financial metrics and again I think that's led to our stock performance again if you look at our annualized stock performance versus the Russell over the last five years 16 percent versus six percent on the Russell. So again, strong outperformance on a compound return. Last year, one year, 158% versus 39 for the Russell. Before you all get up and leave thinking there's nothing else to talk about, stay with me. We're going to talk about the value that we still have, but stay with me here. But how do we do this? Strong financial growth. Again, you saw the at-a-glance slide. We've grown our revenue. We've grown our EBITDA. We've grown our cash. We also have a fortified balance sheet, and we are very disciplined in how we allocate our capital. And finally, I think this is what really gets me going, gets my team going. We have a great growth outlook, and at the end of this, we'll spend a lot of time there. I told you to stick with me on value, all right, because I think this is really important. And so the second is we are an incredible value. You're probably saying, how can you be after 136% increase? Well, if you look at some comps, if you look at manufacturing comps that we have in the Russell 2000, companies that make product, sell product like we do, and you look at some valuation metrics like adjusted cash flow yield or enterprise value to yield, but our price to sales, how do we compare? on a cash flow yield basis you get about three times more free cash flow per share with FET than you would with our manufacturing comps that seems like value seems like advantage us looking at enterprise to enterprise value EBITDA as well as price of sales again we're about half of our of our manufacturing comps again I think that's advantage FET and importantly you know how are we doing this? Are we doing this with a lot of financial leverage? No, we're not. We're about half the financial leverage of our manufacturing comps. Again, I think advantage FET, strong cash generation. We've done it over the years. We've continued to do it. We are a compelling relative valuation. And our balance sheet gives us a lot of flexibility going forward. So incredible value, again, especially relative to other manufacturing companies. Third pillar of YFETs is our capital returns. And really this begins with our capital allocation framework. So starting in the end of 2024, we received authorization for a share repurchase program. Since then, we've repurchased about a million of our shares, reduced our share count from 12.3 to 11.3 million shares. About 8% of our shares outstanding were repurchased. Also, we've continued to use our cash to drive net debt reduction that allows us to then look at strategic investments. So our leverage ratio from the end of 2019 to now has decreased from 3.9 times to 1.1 times. 67% reduction in net debt and we've been able to have five accretive acquisitions at multiples well below our multiple. So we're able to add the accretive acquisitions. So our capital allocation framework I think has been incredibly successful and has been a big part of our our stock performance but going forward we need to have a growth plan and I think what's important to me as I stand here as I think about this growth plan is Backed by my company. It's backed at the lowest levels. We developed this plan from the bottoms up and we said How how do we grow over the next five years? Where do we want to be? I think it starts with our markets, right? I think we, our belief is that we need to increase oil supply to meet demand. How much? Well, I think if we just follow history, historically, oil supply has grown about 1% a year. We think that's about right. We think another 1% a year in the future. Why do we think that? Well, I think global GDP is going to be bigger in five years than it is now. I think urbanization is going to continue. More people are going to live in cities, and when you live in a city, you consume a lot more energy. And we're going to also need a lot more electricity for all the things we're making, right? Whether it's data centers, electric vehicles, or air conditioning in Europe, maybe. We'll see. But you need electricity. So we're going to have to invest to get there. We're going to have to add global rig count, so we're going to have to have rigs drilling. But those rigs drilling have to be efficient. They have to be as efficient as the ones drilling now in order to get that supply. Maybe thinking more short-term, what is the Middle East conflict on? Well, we know it's disrupted oil flow, right? We know we've had a drawdown of inventory. So as a manufacturer, look, I use inventory to balance supply and demand. If inventory is too low and you have demand, you're going to miss out. You're not going to have the supply. The oil markets work very, very similarly. So over time, we're going to have to supply enough oil to meet demand and to refill inventory. So I think the industry fundamentals that are in place today are going to help us drive growth. So that's part one. But really the more important part is what do we do with the things that we can control? So we can control our beat-the-market strategy. We can control how do we gain share. So our strategy, we call it Beat the Market, really rests on four pillars. First is we compete in targeted markets where we have few competitors and where our customers value our differentiated products. So we're only going to compete where we think we can win. And in those markets, we're going to utilize our competitive advantages. So we have very high-tech manufacturing. We have a lot of know-how and IP supporting that. Also, we have brands in our portfolio that have been delivering for customers for decades, and we also have industry experts. So we are a very decentralized company. We push decision-making as far down as possible so we can be as close to the customer as possible. In those key decision-making roles, we have industry experts. They understand how our products are used, and they understand how do we make them better. So we have great expertise with our employees. Third one is we're going to innovate continuously. So we're going to continue to develop differentiated technology that separates ourselves from our competition. Also, this allows us to increase our adjustable market. We have a few good examples here in a second where we've developed technology that allows us to go to a new market where we have fewer competitors but broadens our opportunity set. So that innovation is incredibly important. Finally, we're going to leverage our global footprint. We have facilities around the world, U.S., Canada, United Kingdom, Germany, Saudi, UAE, as well as some distribution in Asia. We have the footprint to deliver product wherever it is required. So energy is a global industry. we can respond to demand. Also, I think tariffs are going to be an issue. I think supply chain challenges are going to continue going forward. So by having this global footprint, we have an ability to be resilient as well as reduce our exposure to policy. So that's our strategy. What's our results? Have we been successful? Well, one way to measure is how much revenue are we generating per global rig count? So if you look at this chart here on the left, so we've grown our revenue per rig from $365,000 in the second quarter of 2023 to over $464,000 last quarter. We are up 27%. So the strategy is working. Also, as we think about where are we selling. So in the United States, we are selling about $700,000. We generate $700,000 of revenue per U.S. rig. Internationally, that number is a little smaller, only about $350,000. One opportunity we're going to talk about is how do we grow our international business? How do we get that spend to match? Great opportunity for us. But overall, bottom line, we have a strategy. It is delivering market share gains. So it's working. Talk a little bit about our product innovation. So that's a big part of our beat the market strategy. One example we'll talk about here is Case Toll Wireline. Case Toll Wireline is a key product used in every well that is fractured, that has hydraulic fracturing, just about every well. The product we make is the workhorse of that technology. It is used on almost every well. We make a high-pressure, high-temperature cable that can go in a well and out of a well very quickly. Why is that important? Well, the quicker you are in and out, the more efficient you can be and the more jobs our customer can do. So this is a targeted market. We only have two competitors in North America. It's a differentiated technology, and excitingly, it's a technology we can export around the world. Again, going back to the previous slide, we have an opportunity to grow our revenue per international rig. This is a great example of how we do that. We ship our cables to Argentina, we just started to last year, as well as to the Middle East. So expanding our opportunity set internationally by exporting what's been successful in the U.S. around the world. Shifting to a little bit different, PowerGen. AI is obviously a topic we all hit every day. Our approach to AI is we are going to stick to our knitting. We're a good manufacturer. We started out making heat exchanger units for hydraulic fracturing fleets. So if you think about a frac truck, frac trailer, excuse me, it has a big engine on it. It has a big pump on it. And then it has our heat transfer unit on it that keeps that engine, keeps that pump cool. Well, that is now shifted to mobile power. So you take a very similar CAD engine and you put our heat exchanger on it. Next shift is to stationary power. So these data centers are buying CAD engines, permanently siding them at the data center to generate power at the site. Pull in natural gas, use the engine to generate electricity. That engine needs to be cooled. So we have now developed a stationary heat transfer unit. This is our first one. We talked about it on our second quarter call. We developed it this year, and we just received our first order. Great opportunity for us. It's our ability to participate in the data center build-out, utilizing the technology we have developed over 40 years. So thinking about a little bit our market positioning. So we talked about our beat-the-market strategy. it's really important to how we approach the market. We actually, you know, modified it a little bit coming into this year, thinking about how do we grow over the next five years? Well, first of all, we looked at ourselves, and we separated our portfolio really into two categories. The first category being our leadership market. So these are products and solutions where we have meaningful share, where our solutions are fully adopted by the industry, and where we have broad geographic exposure. Our addressable market here in these solutions is about $1.6 billion, and our share is 36%, so we have a good, strong share. That's about two-thirds of our revenue today. So as we think about the next five years, our goal here, and I don't think it's that lofty, I think it's an easier one, our goal here is just to sustain our share. So as the market, as the pie gets bigger, we're going to maintain our share in these markets, and we're going to grow with it. So as our markets increase by, you know, 500 million or 700 million over the next five years, we're going to retain our share there. That's a big part of how we're going to grow our overall revenue. The other area, the other third of our portfolio is what we call our growth markets. Very similar characteristics. These are targeted markets with few competitors. However, we are earlier in the adoption cycle, so our innovations are just starting to gain adoption. Or, and in some cases, we have good sales in one region, but not broadly around the world. So our opportunity here is to add new customers. Also, this opportunity is twice as big. So instead of a $1.5 billion addressable market, it's a $3 billion addressable market, and our share is smaller. So our goal is to take that share from 8% to 16% over the next five years. Let me give you a quick example of how I think we can do that. In the United States, we make a product that we call our SandGuard and Cyclone. These two products protect downhole pumps. And in the U.S., we have been incredibly successful at convincing our customers that it's better to put these tools in their well because their pumps are going to last longer, they're going to produce more oil, and they're going to do it at a lower cost. The ROI has been fantastic for our customers. Internationally, we have the same opportunity. The same pumps are in the same wells. But our competition there is status quo. Their engineers don't use these tools to protect their pumps. They let their pump fail. So our opportunity is to take that success we've had in the U.S., where we have it proven over the years, and take that to international markets. What's exciting to me is that market is four times bigger. So we don't have a competitor except for status quo. That's someone we should beat. I'm going to hold my team accountable to that. But that's our opportunity, double our share in the growth markets. So that's the broad picture. You know, how does it all come together? And so I think about our forecasted financials. So we have two scenarios here. At the beginning of this section, I laid out, hey, I think our market's going to grow. Well, maybe you don't buy that. If our market stays flat, how do we look? So two scenarios. We call it our flat market scenario, where in that scenario, our only growth comes from our share gains, not the market. And so we believe with just share gains, we can grow our top line 5%. And I think we can go from roughly $800 million revenue to a billion-dollar revenue company by 2030. That's the base. I think our case, the case that we believe in, again, I think our market's going to grow and we're going to take share. We think we can grow that top line 15% so that in the next five years, we believe we can double our revenue from $800 million to $1.6 billion in the growth market scenario. And with our operating leverage, again, we are a manufacturing company. We have strong operating leverage. 25% to 35% of that incremental revenue will turn into EBITDA. So we'll quadruple our EBITDA over that same period. Also, capital-like business model. We don't require a lot of capital to grow. So 60% to 70% of the incremental EBITDA will turn into free cash flow. So FET 2030, as we think about it, we want to double revenue, quadruple EBITDA, and triple free cash flow in the next five years through organic market share gains and expanding markets. I think that's a great story right there. So why FET, track record of outperformance, even after our run-up, we are an incredible value, our significant capital returns. But really what excites me is we are poised for growth. So with that, I'll take any questions. There's got to be some. Oh, there we go. I'm sorry, D.C. exposure? Oh, see, I'm that far away from. Yeah, so that's a great question. So how much data center exposure will we have? So that stationary radiator would go to a data center application. For us, it's going to be paired with the engine that gets sold. So I think we need to see the backlog of engines move forward. I think this is a more longer-term process that we're going to go through. I think we'll see a lot of growth over the next five years. I think that'll start to accelerate. Let's call it year two, year three. I think the next couple years we'll start to see it build. but I think it's more looking ahead.

Are you the sole supplier to Caterpillar for that combination?

So the question is, are we sole supplier to Caterpillar? We are not. So the choice on the heat, so the way that the value chain is set up is usually there's a packager that will buy the engine and package it with the radiator as well as all the controls. And so we're selling to that packager, and the customer can also specify what kind of radiator they want if they care as well.

No coverage from Wall Street at all, really. There's two firms you have to pay money to. Is there any hope on the horizon if somebody would be as you think they buy and you say, did they have coverage, or are you going to just go to the three-parts conferences and that'll be it?

So, again, questions on coverage, you know, why don't we have broader coverage? And, again, this is something that we are working to, right? We would like to have broader coverage. I think in, you know, if you think about our industry, there's a lot of companies and there's just not as many analysts. That said, we are starting to see more and more analysts join our calls that don't necessarily cover us. I think that's a first step. I think as we continue to get bigger, I think we're going to draw it. So I think as investors call up these analysts saying, what's the story here? I think we're going to get the pull. So I'd like to have more. We're trying. But I think more importantly to me is we're just going to execute. And if they don't want to follow me or follow us, then their investors are going to miss out. I think that's a great – yeah, I think that's a good opportunity for us. and so we'll we do that is something we are looking at correct nothing planned now that's correct okay all right I'll give it three seconds well I do appreciate the time today you guys have been a great audience and again I'm excited about our company and look forward to the next five years thank you