Fmc Corp Q2 FY2025 Earnings Call
Fmc Corp (FMC)
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Auto-generated speakers · tap a word to jump the audioGood morning and welcome to the second quarter 2025 earnings call for FMC Corporation. This event is being recorded and all participants are in a listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's prepared remarks, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To be placed in the Q&A queue, please press the star key, then one at any time. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Kirk Brooks, Director of Investor Relations for FMC Corporation. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to FMC Corporation's second quarter earnings call. Joining me are Pierre Brando, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Andrew Standifer, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and Rinaldo Pereira, President. Today, Pierre will review our second quarter performance and provide outlooks for the third quarter and fourth quarter. Andrew will provide an overview of select financial results. After our prepared remarks, we will take questions. Our earnings release and today's slide presentation are available on our website, and the prepared remarks from today's discussion will be made available after the call. Let me remind you that today's presentation and discussion will include forward-looking statements that are subject to various risks and uncertainties concerning specific factors, including but not limited to those factors identified in our earnings release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Information presented represents our best judgments based on today's understanding. Actual results may vary based on these risks and uncertainties. Today's discussion and the supporting materials will include references to adjusted EPS, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, organic revenue growth, and revenue excluding India, all of which are non-GAAP financial measures. Please note that as used in today's discussion, earnings means adjusted earnings, EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA. A reconciliation and definition of these terms, as well as other non-GAAP financial terms to which we may refer during today's conference call, are provided on our website. With that, I will now
turn the call over to Pierre. Thank you, Kurt, and good morning, everyone. Our goal during the first half of the year was to take a number of actions that would favorably position the company to deliver growth starting in the second half of the year and beyond. These are listed on slide three. We have accomplished these critical objectives while delivering on all of our financial commitments. We believe the level of FMC products in the distribution channels has normalized in most countries, which will enable the implementation of a growth strategy. We have laid out a clear strategy for an accept year with key components well underway, including lower manufacturing costs and introducing new formulations. Our additional sales route in Brazil, focused on direct sales to large corn and soybean growers, as a fully trained staff with initial customer engagement already underway. Commercial activities have commenced, and we anticipate seeing early results starting in the third quarter as Brazil's next growing season begins. The strategies for a core portfolio and growth portfolio platforms are clearly defined, and Q2 results are in line with these plans. Each region, sub-region, and country has actionable strategies in place unique to their geographies. Demand for new actives, Fluenda Peer and Isoflex, is very strong, and we have put the appropriate level of support in place to deliver on our target. just today we received registration for fundatis herbicide containing isoflex active in great britain the team is prepared for launch and we anticipate sales beginning in august dodilex active has been introduced with meaningful sales expected to begin 2027 In fact, the first shipment was invoiced this month. Finally, Q4 of this year, we'll see the first full-scale commercial pilot of Pheromones. With these objectives completed, we are focusing on additional ways to improve the business, starting with addressing the challenges that we face in India. I will stick to these actions we are taking regarding a commercial business in that country in more detail in a moment. But first, I will walk through some highlights from our second quarter. Our second quarter results are detailed on slide 4, 5, and 6. Results overall were at the higher end of our expectations, with EBITDA and EPS slightly exceeding the high end of our guidance. Second quarter sales were 1% higher than prior, driven by volume growth of 6%. We view channel-distoking for our products as completed in most countries as we believe customers have reached their targeted levels of inventory. In the first half of the year, our active management of FMC product sales into the channel, combined with strong use of products on the ground, laid a solid foundation for growth in the second half. Price in the second quarter was down 3%, with over half of the decline due to pricing adjustments made to diamine partners on cost-plus contracts to account for lower manufacturing costs. FX was a mild headwind of 1%. Our growth portfolio was the driver of higher sales, with the core portfolio essentially flat. The growth portfolio's high single-digit increase confirms the strong expectation we have for the new active ingredients. A second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $207 million was 2% higher than prior. As shown on slide 5, gains were given by lower costs attributed to COGS tailwinds from lower raw materials, better fixed cost absorption, and restructuring actions. Cost favorability more than offset priced NSX headwinds, as well as modestly unfavorable product mix within the core portfolio. Our second quarter adjusted earnings per share of $0.59 was $0.10 higher than prior, driven mainly by EBITDA growth and lower interest expense. On the original basis, our strongest growth came from EMEA, driven by higher volume of herbicides, diamide partner sales, and branded sales appear. This was not surprising as many countries in the MEA were the first to reach targeted inventory levels in the channel. Latin America revenue increased slightly versus prior as the region wrapped up the 2024-2025 growing season. North America's sales declined 5% due to expected de-stocking in Canada. In the U.S., there was a solid volume growth of branded products following de-stocking actions and delayed purchases during the first quarter. Asia was down due to lower pricing as well as lower volumes driven by ongoing de-stocking in India. You have heard me talking about challenges in India since I have been back. I believe that for FNC, there is a much stronger way to operate in this country. India has always been a difficult market to operate in. It is characterized by a fragmented distribution channel, serving tens of millions of growers, intense generic competition, and a complex regulatory environment. This market requires a high level of working capital in a challenging price environment Between 21 and 23, we anticipated strong growth of Renex appear As we expected continued process, patent protection Post the expiration of the composition of matter patterns However, generics penetrated much faster than expected when, unlike in almost all other countries, we were unable to enforce our process patterns. This prevented us from executing a strategy and significantly increased an already high level of working capital while slowing down the movement of a product through the distribution channel. Given that India generates very limited EBITDA and has substantial working capital, we have made the decision to change how we operate in this market. After a thorough process that considered multiple options, management and the board made the decision to initiate the divestment of a commercial business in India. Following the sale of the business, we expect to quickly regain commercial momentum in India via a business-to-business model. As soon as the transaction is closed, we expect to supply for the short and mid-term, the eventual buyer, products requiring FMC-owned registration, as well as products where FMC has favorable manufacturing costs. Most importantly, we expect to provide the buyer access to our IP-protected products, including our four new active ingredients and advanced diamide formulation. With a partner better structure for growth in India, we expect molecules like Dodio-X, which have a strong potential in the country, to gain strong growth as soon as we get the registration. In addition, we retain our active ingredients, global manufacturing and global research in India. We believe that the decision will enable faster resolution of our current challenges, reduce risk and volatility in future periods, free up cash for debt repayment, result in a stronger balance sheet, and allow us to more readily deploy resources to other growth areas. Over time, it will also permit us to shift our India portfolio toward differentiated technologies with less working capital exposure. Turning to slide 7, our full-year guidance. As Andrew will explain further in a moment, a reported revenue will include India. However, we are excluding India from revenue guidance given that uncertainty of managing that business while selling it. India will be excluded from adjusted EBITDA and EPS. Revenue excluding India is gathered to be down 2% versus prior reported results. as a mid-single-digit price decline and a flat-to-low single-digit FX headwind are anticipated to be offset by volume growth, mainly in the second half. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be 1% higher at the midpoint as lower cost and volume growth are mostly offset by price and FX headwinds. Adjusted earnings per share are expected to be flat to prior year at the midpoint In summary, the only change to our guidance is to remove second half sales from India Other than this, we are maintaining guidance across all metrics Sales, EBITDA, EPS, and free cash flow Turning to slide 8 In Q3, we expect revenue excluding India to be down 1% versus reported prior results. We anticipate healthy volume growth and a minor tailwind from FX. Price is expected to be down mid-single digit, including adjustment to diamine partner contracts. The India exclusion is a 6% reduction. For branded products, price headwinds are amplified by the fact that volume growth in LATAM is increasing the numbers of customers qualifying for rebates versus last year. It is not a like-for-like price decrease. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to grow substantially, up 14% at the midpoint, has significant cost favorability and volume growth more than offset pricing and FX headwinds. Lower costs are expected from COG's tailwind, including lower raw materials, better fixed cost absorption, and restructuring actions. Adjusted EPS is expected to be 28% higher than prior at the midpoint Prevent by higher EBITDA Slide 9 shows our guidance for the fourth quarter We anticipate revenue, excluding India, to be 5% higher at the midpoint as strong volume growth and a minor FX tailwind are partially offset by a low single-digit price decline and a negative 6% impact from the India exclusion. Volume growth is estimated to come mostly from the growth portfolio. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be 4% higher at the midpoint as lower costs more than offset, lower pricing. Costs are expected to be favorable, but not to the same magnitude that we're expecting in the third quarter. Adjusted EPS is expected to be 3% lower than prior, as the EBITDA increase is more than offset by higher taxes and interest expense. I will now turn it over to Andrew to cover details on cash flow and other items.
Thanks, Pierre. Before I review the customary key financial items, I'd like to provide some additional context on the guidance and financial reporting implications of the sale of our India commercial business. We have concluded that the NDA sale meets the conditions to treat the assets of the business as held for sale for financial reporting purposes, effective with the third quarter. The business is not material enough to SMC's results to be classified as a discontinued operation. As such, the results of the business will continue to be presented in the company's GAAP operating results until a transaction is completed. As Pierre described earlier, our guidance for the remainder of 2025 excludes India. Our reported revenue will continue to include the sales of India, of the India commercial business. However, we will also provide revenue excluding India as we report each quarter. Guided and reported adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS will exclude the results of the business. During the third quarter, we will evaluate the assets related to the sale for impairment. And if necessary, we will record the assets at the lower of their carrying value or estimated fair value less cost to sell in our third quarter financial statements. While we have not yet completed this analysis, it is possible that we will record an impairment of the business in the third quarter. Without additional contact, let me proceed to the review of some key income statement items. SX was an overall 1% headwind to revenue growth in the second quarter, with tailwinds from a strengthening euro more than offset by a weakening Brazilian Riai. Interest expense for the second quarter was $61 million, down over $2 million compared to the prior year period, primarily driven by lower debt balances. The effective tax rate on adjusted earnings was 14% in the second quarter, in line with our continued expectation of a full-year effective tax rate of 13% to 15%. For full year 2025, we expect FX to be a flat to minor headwind at revenue, with continued weakness in the Brazilian REI and Canadian dollar more than offsetting a strong euro. We now expect full year 2025 interest expense to be in the range of $215 to $235 million, down more than $10 million compared to the prior year, but up slightly from our prior guidance, reflecting the higher interest rate on the recently completed subordinated debt offering. We've also revised our outlook for depreciation and ampergization for full year 2025 to $170 to $180 million, a slight reduction from prior guidance to reflect the timing of new assets coming online. The net result of these refinements is that our full year 2025 EPS guidance is unchanged. Moving next to the balance sheet and leverage. In May, we successfully completed the sale of $750 million of subordinated notes due in 2055. The transaction was leverage neutral, which proceeds from the offering used to redeem the May 2026 senior notes and to pay down commercial paper. The structures of these notes is such that they are treated as 50% equity by all three rating agencies, immediately improving our metrics with them. This offering was an important step in supporting our investment-grade credit rating as we transitioned to more substantial EBITDA growth in the second half of 2025 and into 2026. All three rating agencies reaffirmed their investment-grade ratings in conjunction with this offering. We ended the second quarter with gross debt of approximately $4.2 billion, up $160 million from the prior quarter. Cash on hand increased $123 million to $438 million, resulting in net debt of approximately $3.7 billion, essentially flat to the prior quarter. Gross debt to trailing 12-month EBITDA was 4.8 times at quarter end, while net debt to EBITDA was 4.3 times. Relative to our leverage covenant, which includes adjustments to both the numerator and denominator, leverage was 4.8 times as compared to a covenant limit of 5.25 times. As a reminder, our Covenant leverage limit will remain at 5.25 times through September 30th, then step down to 5.0 times at year-end. We continue to expect Covenant leverage to return to approximately 3.7 times by year-end, essentially flat to the prior year. We expect to show meaningful improvement in our leverage metrics in 2026 from a combination of EBITDA growth and debt reduction. Debt reduction will come from proceeds from the sale of our India commercial business, as well as free cash flow above that required to fund the dividend. Moving on to free cash flow in slide 10. Free cash flow in the second quarter was $40 million, $241 million lower than the prior year period. Cash from operations was down significantly, primarily due to the absence of the significant inventory reduction seen in the prior year. We continue to expect free cash flow of $200 million to $400 million for 2025, a decrease of $313 million at the midpoint. Cash from operations is the key driver of the decrease, with normalization of working capital after the pronounced correction in 2024. Capital additions are also expected to be up somewhat, with continued focus on only the most essential projects and capacity expansion for new products. Cash used by discontinued operations is also up slightly, but in line with our multi-year average. And with that, I'll hand the call back to Pierre.
Thank you, Andrew. We are now at an inflection point where we're shifting our focus toward revenue and EBITDA growth for the second half of the year in 2026. The reset of the company announced at the beginning of the year is essentially done. We have met all of the objectives we set for the first half of the year. The execution of the India plan will complete the turnaround of the company. We are now positioned for strong performance going forward and have confidence in reaching our 2025 targets. with our 2027 outlook intact. With that, we're now ready to take your questions.
We will now begin the question and answer session. To be placed in the queue, please press the star key, then one on your touchtone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your headset before pressing the keys. Please limit yourself to one question. If you have additional questions, you can jump back in the queue. To withdraw your question, please press the star, then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. Our first question comes from Richard Gartietorino with Wells Fargo. Richard, your line is not open.
And that's quarter. Pierre, you talk about this quarter signaling and then selection points. You provided 3Q, 4Q guidance, which was in line with expectations. What should we think about in terms of, you know, where volume and pricing could move into in terms of the growth phase entering 2026? And you're also talking about 2027 targets intact. So, if you could just remind us what you're expecting for 2027 as well.
There is multiple year and quarters here. So, I think, first of all, 26, 27 targets are remaining in line with what we have said at the last earnings call, leading, if I remember well, to a EBITDA of $1.2 billion in 2027. That number is not changing. from a growth in 2026 and 2027. I think it will be mostly driven by a growth portfolio. We have very strong confidence for those two years in our branded sales appear, in our three active ingredients, food appear and isoflakes like this year, but we're adding Dodilex, as I said, in my prepared comments, which has just been introduced with the first building happening this month, and then by our plant health business, Biological. So still the same type of expectation with this product leading to double-digit growth. From a core portfolio, I think the fundamental difference you're going to see in 26 and 27 versus 2025 is Renex Appear. Today, the portfolio ex-Renex Appear is growing under multiple sets of actions. But of course, there is a negative impact of the pricing with our diamide partner. I think we are at a place right now where a Renex Appear strategy based on a much lower manufacturing cost competitive with generics And I must add to that a generic situation where there is not as much product available as there used to be in the past and certainly at increasing price. We have developed a strategy which is allowing an acceptable growth year on year in 26 and 27 versus 25. So all of those are the pieces of the components of the growth in 26 and 27. For the second half of the year, as we said before, the growth is coming from essentially Brazil because that's a big season for them. New route to market and direct sales and new co-op strategy. And once again, through that PR and Isoflex, we are seeing very, very strong demand.
Our next question comes from Josh Spector with the company UBS. Josh, your line is not open.
Yeah, hi, good morning. I was wondering if you could deconstruct the cost side of the basket for 2Q and kind of as we look in the second half. So you had about $69 million in savings. If you could help us think about how much of that is around the fixed cost absorption headwinds coming off 2Q, what carries in the 3Q raw materials and cost savings, that would be helpful.
I think that the story for cost as we go through the year, the drivers are the same in each period. the balance among them. Certainly, lower raw material costs are a key driver, and we're the largest driver in Q2. That is both from lower purchase materials, but also from the restructuring actions we've taken to fundamentally change the cost position that we have in our Ranaxapeer business. Second to that is certainly improved fixed cost absorption, as we are running the plants at much more normal capacity than the more depressed levels of production we had in 2024. And then we do, of course, have, you know, continued benefit from the restructuring actions that we took in 2024, some of which are continuing to be implemented, particularly in the first half of 2025. As we get into Q3 and Q4, it's just the balance among those levers that's different. I would say certainly all three continue to be key contributors to our cost tailwinds, and those cost tailwinds are quite substantial in Q3 and Q4. The absence of fixed cost absorption challenges is a bigger tailwind in Q3 than it is in Q4, and net-net costs are a stronger tailwind in Q3 than they are in Q4. But it is still those three drivers, you know, lower arm material costs, better fixed cost absorption, and the benefits of restructuring actions, you know, not only in manufacturing costs but also across SD&A, that are contributing to the cost tailwind in all of the periods.
Next question comes from Frank Mitch with the company Hermione Research. Frank, your line is not open.
Thank you. Good morning and a nice result. Pierre, I want to follow up on the Indy announcement. Can you provide some of the parameters on 2024 in terms of a sales EBITDA for that business so we can better tie in the new guidance versus the prior guidance? And along with that, have the bankers already been marketing this business? and if so, any comments in terms of the receptivity of, I assume, strategics that would be interested in purchasing the India commercial business?
Let me start by the second part of your question that you just want. We have not officially started to market the property, but we have done all of the work on the preparation. We're working on the marketing books. I believe we're already getting phone calls, but I cannot be overly precise on that. since we just announced that. So it seems like the news is going fast, but can't tell more than that. To answer your first part of the question, I'm going to ask you to bear with me because I'm going to try to give you as many details as I can to help you guys. So it's going to take a minute. Yes. First, why no more information than what we gave in the earnings release? India, from an SEC standpoint, is viewed as not material to FMC. So it does not qualify as a discontinued operation. It's classified as a carve-out. Consequently, we're not going to do a recast of 23, 24, 25. But still, I can still give you some colors for you to be able to establish your model. First, let me talk about India in the second half in 24 and 25. What we did in H224 for India was $140 million of sales. What we were forecasting to do in H225 was $70 million of sales. So if you look at those two numbers to achieve our ex-India 2025 second half target, we would need our business in the second half of 25 versus the second half of 24 to grow by 9%, which is about $190 million. So if we grow by $190 million, we'll achieve our guidance ex-India for H2, 25. How do we get there? First, a growth portfolio. Today, what we have in front of us for a growth portfolio in the second half is over $200 million of growth. with more than half of these 200 million dollars coming from Fluent Appear and Isoflex. For the core portfolio, it's overall flattish. The non-Renexa Appear part of the core portfolio is growing. And it's growing and we have confidence in the growth for three key reasons. First, we have talked many times about the actions we are taking in Brazil to improve our direct route to market, as well as our co-ops. We also have strong confidence in the MEA and in North America, where the channel inventory is really in a very good place today. It was proven, demonstrated by the EMEA results in the second quarter. Against that growth of the core portfolio ex-Renexa Peer, we have the Renexa Peer headwinds, mostly driven by pricing to our Dynamics partners. So those two pretty much cancel each other out. But if I look at this growth, this sales growth, in addition, if we put a cost-benefit, it will lead to an EBITDA increase on a life-for-life basis, excluding Asia, of about 80 million dollars, not Asia, sorry, India, of about 80 million dollars. H.225 versus H.224. So that's what I'm trying to recast a little bit, the numbers excluding India in our forecasting.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Vincent Andrews with the company Morgan Stanley. Vincent, Yelan, is that open?
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Pierre, in years past, you've been able to give us a sense, looking into the third quarter at how your order book is shaping up, particularly in the Brazilian market and how much you have in hand versus, you know, yet to invoice. So I'm wondering if you'd just give us an update there and particularly also just comment on, you know, where farmer economics are there and sort of how the credit situation has evolved there. Thank you.
Yes. I think Brazil, Brazil right now is looking good. I think I would say actual orders, I'm not talking negotiations, I'm talking orders for the second half, which have been booked, is about 35 to 40% of what we need for the entire second half. It's a much higher number than what we've been having in the last couple of years. So at this stage, it's very early. It's only July, but we're feeling quite good about Brazil. Farmers' economics in Brazil. Ronaldo, maybe you want to comment?
Not dramatically different than what we've seen in the rest of the world. Farmers had very strong harvests for corn. So I think the corn side of the row crops is more exciting than soybean at this stage. They do expect to plant another very strong season on corn. Cotton is not as high as it was a couple of years ago or even a year ago, but it's still incentivizing growers to at a minimum maintain their planted area, if not a slight increase, and sugarcane is stable. So all in all, I would say margins are tighter than they were two and a half years ago, but not to a point that would drive growers to influence their decision on planted areas. We do expect a full season in the coming season in Brazil.
Our next question comes from Duffy Fitcher with the company Goldman Sachs. So for your line, is that open?
Two questions. First is the new direct sales program in Brazil, the expectation for size this year, does that contribute this year or will that take a couple years before it really contributes anything? And then the second one is the headwinds you're facing from the Dynamite Partners price down, when does that anniversary, is it basically a one-year impact or will there be kind of two years of step-down as far as that being a headwind for pricing for you guys?
Yes, to your first question, we are expecting to see the impact of the new sales organization for direct sales to farmer in Brazil to be visible this quarter. Certainly, we will not get the full potential. We will grow year after year. But, yes, we should see the impact immediately as a sales organization is already currently in negotiation and having some commercial activity. The way the Diamite Partners contract works, it's annual. So every year we review manufacturing costs and we adjust pricing to our partners. By far, the most dramatic decrease in pricing took place from the 24 to 25. That's where we had the very, very significant reduction in manufacturing costs, which led to the significant decrease in pricing. As we continue to decrease our cost, we will continue to decrease our pricing to our partners. But the order of magnitude has got nothing to do with what we saw this year. It will be very incremental.
Great. Thank you, guys.
Our next question comes from Chris Parkinson with the company Wolf Research. Chris, your line is now open.
Great. Thank you so much. When you take a step back and you look at your volume algo for the next few years, I mean, there are a bunch of moving parts, but it seems that, you know, the TAMs of EF1 and Isoflex are pretty obvious. And Rinaldo had done an in-depth look at kind of the broadening addressable market for Rinaxapir off patent, especially some of the, you know, let's say higher ends or higher value acres across the globe. Can you just give us a better sense of where your assessment of those TAMs stands now? Do you feel better about them? Do you feel the same about them just as we're, you know, approaching the second half and, you know, into that 26, 27 time period? Thank you.
Yes. I think about the new products, we're feeling better. There is no doubt that the demand on Isoflex and Fluendapir is strong and stronger than we're expecting. We've signed, as you know, important contracts to supply some of our competitors or partners. When they sign contracts, they are partners. When they go against us, they are competitors. but uh so there is no doubt that the demand on food that here on isoflex is stronger than what we're expecting the other good news is we are launching and get getting the registration in time for uh for dodox so we do have the official uh the official uh launch and that will impact 2027 so on the side of the new new product very high level of confidence Regarding Renex Appear, we still feel very, very confident. There is no fundamental change to the strategy we have discussed. The only change is we have moved to a different place. We had multiple meetings and gatherings, and now we are at a place where every single country in the world or every single region or subregion do have a Renex Appear strategy, which is in line with their market. So we moved from a broad, directional, global strategy to now a ready-to-employment regional, sub-regional, or country strategy for Alexa Peer. So it's holding true, and we have no negative view of what we're doing. The last comment I would make around Alexa Peer is our confirmation of the cost roadmap, which is getting more and more attractive and making us more and more competitive with generic. So that's also a positive evolution of the Renex Appear strategy. Plus, I have to say, I mean, that's not by our own doing, but the generic Renex Appear situation has changed. There is less supply on the market of generic renaxapir. You're aware of the UDAO plant explosion. Not only it limits the products on the market, but that plant was also making intermediates, which were used by other generics to make renaxapir. So they are lacking intermediates to make their product. And we've seen the price increasing and some very significant announcements. There is also the fact that many of the generics who are not producing but making formulation were using the UDAO registration, which, of course, is not usable any longer. So, at this stage, we have a way less competitive Renex APR market from the generic, and we are continuing on the roadmap.
Next question comes from Kevin McCarthy with the company VRP. Kevin, your line is now open.
Yes, thank you very much, and good morning. Maybe two quick ones from my side. Pierre, just to follow up on the prior comments that you made, If we take into account the RENAC-SAPIR dynamics as well as your DIAMID partner agreement renegotiations, would it be reasonable to expect the pricing function overall for the company to stabilize and perhaps turn positive in the first half of 2026? My second question would be for Andrew, just if you could walk through maybe the working capital and other key cash flow assumptions that you've embedded within your $200 to $400 million range for free cash flow.
The Renex APR strategy, there is two parts to it. One is with the partners and one is the branded product. I think for the partners, there is some sort of a stabilization in the sense that most of the vast majority of the price decrease having taken place, the adjustments we're going to have going forward are going to be pretty minor. So we do expect more of a stabilization of the pricing at this level. For Brandon Renexapir, we're still expecting price decrease because the competition with Generic is going to be more open. That being said, we're still developing higher tech formulation, which could be commanding a different pricing and a changing competitive situation. So the price decrease might not be as dramatic as what we might have expected at some point. But we still believe that we have to cast a strategy within the context of a branded Renexapier pricing going down in 26 versus 25, where most countries which are protected by process patterns today will not be protected. But we are ready for it. The strategy is in place. Manufacturing cost is in place. And we still believe that we can protect earnings in 26 versus 25 for Renexapier.
Yeah, so some quick comments on working capital and cash flow. Certainly, you know, seasonality of our cash flow is very, very heavily tilted to the second half in a particular Q4. I think you're seeing that trend in our actual performance through Q2 and what we're signaling for the rest of the year. When we think about the key drivers here, certainly operating cash flow is the big driver in free cash flow this year, and it's really working capital, right? guidance EBITDA is relatively flat, just slightly up for the year. So it really is around working capital as a key driver. From a balance sheet perspective, I think if you think about the three key elements, certainly payables, we're continuing to work to rebuild payable levels as we get operations to more stable, steady, steady operation. We do still have some noise year on year from timing of purchases that is making that a bit noisy, but you should see improvement in payables. Inventory, I think we'll end up the year probably pretty flattish on the balance sheet. I think the inventory level we're at is appropriate for the sales we have planned for the second half and going into what we expect to be growth in 2026. And then the area we're going to continue to push on, and it's always a challenge, and the AgCAM business is receivable. And certainly, with sales growth in the second half, we've got a lot of work to do to make sure we collect. I think collections have been very solid through year to date. We've had good success with, you know, normal collections, but also with certain, you know, providing certain incentives for collections in certain markets as well. So that is the challenge with the growth in the second half is to keep receivables to a manageable level. I think when you factor all of those in with, you know, very modest increase in discontinued ops spending, you know, operating cash flow. But it's going to depend on how we execute in the last second half of the year. Unfortunately, it is the nature of the seasonality of our cash flow. So we'll continue to drive that and watch that very closely.
Our next question comes from Alexi Yefremov with the company KeyBank. Alexi, your line is not open.
Thanks. Good morning. Can you talk about your diamage pricing outside of partner agreements this year? So your brand at Ranax Appear, how is it doing this year pricing-wise and then Sayas Appear as well?
Yes, we are not breaking it precisely, but sales Appear in a very different situation. Sales Appear is data-protected, so we do not have at all the same competitive situation in Sales Appear. Ranaxapir pricing, even for the brand one, is...
Pricing in Q2 for Ranaxapir, branded Ranaxapir, was relatively flat. The real pricing headwinds in Ranaxapir are the partner contracts in the current period.
Ranaxapir this year, except in India, China, Turkey, Argentina, a few countries, is still protected by process patent. So there is not yet the penetration outside of those countries of generics.
A next question comes from Mike Harrison with the company Seaport Research Partners. Mike, your line is not open.
Hi, good morning. I was hoping, Pierre, that you could give a little bit more detail on the Pheromones offering. It sounds like there's a pilot that's going to be going into action later this year. I'm curious, are you expecting to see a meaningful commercial contribution in 2026, and where do you think you are on the path to $1 billion in revenue in 2030? Is that still a realistic outlook longer term?
The answer, if it's realistic or not will highly depend upon the results of what we are doing this quarter I think these two quarters are very important it's the first full scale commercial operation we have with pheromones so it's the first time we're going to learn how pheromones perform versus a regular product and will tell us if the $1 billion forecast or plan was based on Ceremon operating as expected and well. So I think we're going to have to wait to answer your question. It will be a much better answer based on fact at the end of the year once this campaign is over and we have the first full-scale results. We don't have it right now. We're shipping the product. We're starting. It's an H2 event in Brazil and we're not close to having the first results.
Our next question comes from Aron Viswanathan with the company RVC Capital Markets. Aron, your line is not open.
And I guess just looking at the second half, it looks like the implied guide for Q4 is $354 million. So I guess maybe you can just talk to kind of some of the building blocks there, if you could maybe break it up into maybe new revenue from new products or maybe the Brazil route to market as well. Yeah, that would be helpful. Thanks.
You know, I think the reasoning for Q4 and Q3, and maybe Ronaldo, you'll add, but it's the same. For Q4, it's going to be driven by the growth portfolio. Fluent App here is going to be very critical in the fourth half, and most of the growth is going to come from a growth portfolio, and mostly from Fluent App here and Isoflex. Then the new route to market will allow to grow the core part of a market, but certainly the impact will be decreased by the reduction in Renexa period due to underpricing. So a very high growth driven by new products and, of course, the new route to market, as well as the co-op. We tend to forget that, but we've put in place a very different system with co-ops to increase sales. And those are the drivers for Brazil. Now, let's not forget when we talk about Q4, North America is very important. Last year, it was a very big part of the growth we had. This is when we load the wholesaler with the products before they supply in Q1, the retailers. So it's not only Brazil, but it's also North America with about the same drivers.
Our last question comes from Joel Jackson with the company BMO Capital Markets. Joel, your line is not open.
Good morning. Pierre, I want to ask you a question. So in the decision that you made to show India the way you're showing, I know the investor base really wants to understand the visibility of your company. And obviously, there's a lot of moving parts in why visibility may be hard this year and next year. But I want to know why you did decide to add a little bit of complexity to this year's numbers by doing this. And as part of that, why didn't you do this when you sold GSS last year? Why didn't you exclude GSS earnings ahead of the ultimate sale closing?
Here GSS division were made before I was the CEO, so I came in, the deal was made, so maybe, Andrew, you can do more detail.
Joel, I think we came to the conclusion on health for sale with the GSS business later in the process, and because of the way GSS was organized, GSS was a collection of product lines across multiple geographies. It was not a discrete business unit. It was not as simple to be able to carve out or to identify all the pieces as we were moving through. So that certainly is one difference between the two situations. In both cases, you know, the businesses being sold qualify for health for sale at certain points, but did not meet the conditions of discontinued ops. So there's no ability to recast. So, you know, we can provide color in both cases, but we're not able to do a recast. I think the second piece with the India business, and, you know, certainly looking at, you know, why we think Carva is appropriate here. Operating the India business while we're preparing it for sale is different from operating it if we were going to continue to own it. There are decisions we might make that would make it more attractive or easier for a buyer to integrate the business. that might not be in the best interest of our results if we were to operate the business over a longer-term horizon. Because of that, it makes it very difficult for us to forecast the performance of the India business for the next several periods. So we thought it would be more important to be able to give guidance numbers that we can stand behind and deliver upon, and importantly, that represent the future operations of the company, right, what the value driver of this business is going forward. You know, we've made that decision. The board has made the decision to exit this commercial business. It is not a part of F&C's future and its current configuration. Through supply agreements and partnerships, there will certainly be some ongoing economic benefit. But we do feel that the presentation of excluding the India business from adjusted EBITDA and EPS helps investors see more clearly what the go-forward earnings base of the company is. So that's the reason for the presentation.
And in terms of the complexity, to try to simplify, what we are doing in the second half of the year, we are removing from our sales the $70 million we are forecasting for India. And India was at about breakeven on EBITDA, so we are not changing our EBITDA and EPS target. That's all we are doing. So when you look at the numbers for 2025, they're essentially the same. We are not moving on earnings, and we are just removing the contribution to sales of India, which was about $70 million. Beside that, everything else is the same.
Thank you.
This concludes the SMC Corporation conference call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.