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GPRE · Green Plains Inc.

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$15.59 +0.05 (+0.32%) At close · Aug 14
Market Cap
$1.09B
Shares
70.10M
All earnings calls

Earnings call · FY2025 Q4

Green Plains Inc. Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call

Green Plains Inc. Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call

Concluded Feb 5, 2026 Audio replay
Feb 5, 2026 41:50 43 turns
Period
FY2025 Q4
Runtime
41:50
Sources
4 artifacts

Executive readout · one minute

What matters this quarter

Green Plains swung to Q4 2025 net income of $11.9 million ($0.17/diluted share) from a $54.9M loss a year ago, with adjusted EBITDA of $49.1M benefiting from $27.7M of 45Z credits and the start-up of carbon capture at its three Nebraska plants, and guides to at least $188M of 45Z-related adjusted EBITDA in 2026.

Ethanol Market and Exports 21 Operational Excellence and Cost Reduction 19 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit 17 Capital Allocation and Debt Management 10 Leadership Transition 10 Carbon Capture and Sequestration 8

Management tone

Confident

Net tone +70 · low hedging

Grounding quotes
  • “These results reflect a culture of continuous improvement, measuring everything, learning quickly, and applying the lessons learned.”
  • “Financially, the focus on operational excellence and our efforts to remove costs from the business have resulted in considerably stronger results compared to last year.”
  • “2026 is looking to be a positive year for Green Plains and the ethanol industry.”
  • “the opportunity around carbon alone is expected to generate at least $188 million of adjusted EBITDA during the year”

Forward guidance

5 guided metrics

Management's latest ranges and targets are included below.

Research coverage

4 live sources

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Revenue · derived Q4 $428.85M -26.6% YoY
Gross margin · derived Q4 9.4% +8.3 pp YoY
Net income · derived Q4 $11.94M

Research materials

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Key takeaways

What improved, and what deserves a closer read.

Constructive signals

  • Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $49.1M, an improvement of more than $67M versus Q4 2024's negative $18.2M
  • Net income of $11.9M ($0.17/diluted share) versus a $54.9M net loss in Q4 2024
  • $27.7M of 45Z production tax credit value recorded in Q4 2025, with first credit transfer payment received
  • Carbon capture fully operational at Central City, Wood River and York, Nebraska facilities, lowering CI scores and generating cash flow
  • Revised stated ethanol capacity raised to 730 million gallons/year, a 10% increase over prior stated capacity
  • Q4 utilization of 97% across eight operating ethanol plants using revised stated capacity; 3¢ year-over-year decrease in total OpEx

Risks & pressure points

  • Q4 revenue of $428.8M was down 26.6% year-over-year due to the Obion plant sale, Fairmont idling, and discontinuing third-party ethanol marketing
  • $3.6M of restructuring and noncash charges in Q4, primarily accelerated stock compensation
  • $60M of 2027 convertibles remain outstanding; interest expense expected to rise to $30M-$35M in 2026
  • Year-round E15 did not make it into the recent bill and is not expected to have a major impact in 2026
  • Q1 weather and natural gas spikes caused minor operational hiccups and industry-wide U.S. ethanol production dropped ~15% week-over-week per DOE data

Key moments

Jump directly to management's words in the synchronized transcript.

“Although it's early in the year, there's plenty to be excited about as we enter 2026. As we mentioned in earlier calls, the opportunity around carbon alone is expected to generate at least $188 million of adjusted EBITDA during the year, subject to actual production volumes and carbon intensity factors.” Chris Ossowski, CEO
“Outside of the $60 million of 2027 convertible notes that remain outstanding, we anticipate retiring with cash at maturity. We now have no near-term debt maturities and have the runway to focus on execution.” Speaker 3, CFO

Forward guidance

From the 8-K filed Feb 5, 2026.

Metric Guided
45Z-related Adjusted EBITDA
2026
at least $188M

Guidance from the call

Stated verbally and extracted from the transcript.

Metric Guided
Adjusted EBITDA from carbon
the year
at least $188M
Net 45Z benefits from plants outside of Nebraska
the year
at least $38M
Consolidated SG&A run rate
2026
$90M – $95M
Interest expense
2026
$30M – $35M
Full-screen source Call document