Hexcel Corp /De/ Q3 FY2023 Earnings Call

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Hexcel Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode, and please be advised that this call is being recorded. After the speaker's prepared remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Your participation on this call constitutes your consent to that request. Now this time I would like to turn the things over to Mr. Patrick Winterlich, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you, Paul. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Hexcel Corporation's third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. Before beginning, let me cover the formalities. I want to remind everyone about the safe harbor provisions related to any forward-looking statements we may make during the course of this call. Certain statements contained in this call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. They involve estimates, assumptions, judgments, and uncertainties caused by a variety of factors that could cause future actual results or outcomes to differ materially from our forward-looking statements today. Such factors are detailed in the company's SEC filings and last night's news release. A replay of this call will be available on the Investor Relations page of our website. Lastly, this call is being recorded by Hexcel Corporation and is copyrighted material. It cannot be recorded or rebroadcast without our express permission. With me today are Nick Stanage, our Chairman, CEO and President; and Kurt Goddard, our Vice President of Investor Relations. The purpose of the call is to review our third quarter 2023 results detailed in our news release issued yesterday. Now let me turn the call over to Nick.

Thanks, Patrick. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today as we share our third quarter 2023 results. Continued strong demand in our Commercial Aerospace and Space and Defense markets resulted in another consecutive quarter of double-digit sales growth for Hexcel. Hexcel continues to benefit from the post-pandemic travel recovery and from the growing pull for newer, more fuel-efficient lightweight aircraft to meet that demand and to replace aging fleets. Over the past several months, numerous airlines around the world have placed a significant number of orders for both narrowbody and widebody aircraft, resulting in total backlogs that are at record levels. Hexcel is on a long-term growth trajectory, and we are working hard to ensure that we are ready to satisfy that demand. This involves bringing back operational capacity which has been either turned off or running at reduced rates since the pandemic. We have been recruiting the talent we need to meet the strong demand ahead of us, and we continue to focus on training and expanding shop floor experience to prepare for the higher production rates. We're excited about the growth opportunities ahead, and we expect that growth to drive significant cash generation over the next several years. As a reminder, we continue to expect capital expenditures to remain below $100 million for the next few years as we grow into and reutilize existing plant and equipment. Third quarter sales grew strongly year-over-year, and they also reflect the normal third quarter seasonality we typically experience from the European summer vacation period. In addition, there are some ongoing supply chain challenges in the commercial aerospace market as the OEMs navigate their way through the strong ramp-up in build rates. Given our higher number of production assets in service today, along with the preparation to support strong growth ahead, the expected lower third quarter sales resulted in a reduction in our margins. The supply chains for our raw materials are greatly improved compared to last year, though shipping lead times are still not quite back to the levels seen pre-pandemic. Pressures also continue around certain inflationary impacts, most notably energy costs in Europe. Our response to all these challenges is our ongoing commitment to operational excellence, which continues to drive efficiencies and increase productivity throughout our operations. Positioning in advance for the build rate growth ahead is critical, both for Hexcel and our customers to avoid disruptions and to replenish the supply chain. The commercial aerospace industry is on a fast-paced journey to ramp the build rates of modern lightweight aircraft. Over the next three years, build rates for narrowbody aircraft are expected to increase by nearly 50% and build rates for widebody aircraft are expected to almost double. This is both a challenge and a great opportunity, and Hexcel is determined to be ready to ensure our products are produced efficiently and delivered on time to our customers. The forecasted cash generation over this period will provide significant capital deployment opportunities in the coming years, while we continue to maintain strong discipline around our balance sheet structure. This is truly a great time to be in the business of manufacturing lightweight composite materials. Now let me highlight some of the third quarter results, and Patrick will then provide more detail on the numbers. Commercial Aerospace sales of almost $252 million increased more than 19% in constant currency compared to the third quarter of 2022. The strongest growth came from the Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 widebody programs. Narrowbody sales were relatively flat year-over-year, reflecting some temporary disruptions in the overall aerospace supply chain. While each quarter, we highlight the strongest programs from Airbus and Boeing, remember, we have great positions in the business jet segment. Other Commercial Aerospace increased more than 20% in the third quarter on continued strong business jet demand. Let me highlight a couple of additional points. First, the combined Airbus, Boeing backlog currently stands at a record 13,775 aircraft. Airlines are securing their place in line that is 8 to 10 years long as they plan to replenish their fleets with new efficient, lightweight aircraft. Virtually every OEM out there is ramping as fast as the supply chain will allow. Commercial Aerospace is booming, and demand remains strong, perhaps stronger than ever. Lightweight materials for fuel-efficient aircraft are being pulled harder than I have seen in my 14 years with Hexcel, and the reason is clear; making flying platforms light and strong is the number one enabler for both performance and sustainability, and Hexcel is at the leading edge of developing and producing these technologies. Secondly, we recognize that while the next narrowbody program might not have a scheduled launch state, material selections for those aircraft are several years in advance of launch, and that time is now. We have tremendous efforts underway as we pursue those opportunities with our customers. Turning to Space and Defense, sales of almost $129 million increased 17% in constant currency, with broad-based growth across a number of military platforms globally, including classified programs. Defense spending is on an upward trajectory in many countries as governments raise budgets in response to the growing instability and increased number of conflicts occurring around the world today. In August, it was announced that the U.S. Navy awarded Sikorsky a $2.7 billion contract to build and deliver 35 additional CH-53K helicopters. And that's good news, both for our customers and for us. As you know, the CH-53K is becoming one of our top defense programs. Also in August, we celebrated the landing of the Chandrayaan-3 on the moon. It was the first lunar probe under the program launched by the Indian Space Research Organization, and our Hexcel lightweight advanced composites were on board. Now turning to Industrial, sales of about $39 million decreased 21% in constant currency, attributed primarily to lower wind energy sales. Globally, the wind energy industry remains challenged. Our legacy wind business is now focused in Austria, which continues to deliver to our largest wind customer, Vestas. Other parts of our Industrial business continue to grow, most notably automotive, which has increased year-over-year and now is the largest sub-segment for us in Industrial. Our presence in high-end sports cars and SUVs as well as carbon fiber wheels is growing, pulling through high value-added composite materials. Other areas such as marine, electric vehicles, and hydrogen pressure vessels, where there is a need for value-adding advanced composite solutions, are also being explored. Year-to-date, total Hexcel sales of more than $1.3 billion are up more than 15% year-over-year in constant currency, and EPS is up more than 50% to $1.38 at the end of September 2023, from $0.88 this time last year, all of which reflects positive momentum and underpins our confidence in continued strong demand and growth. As evidence of that confidence, we completed a stock buyback of $30 million during the third quarter. Lastly, our sales, EPS, and free cash flow guidance remains unchanged for 2023. Now I'll turn it over to Patrick to provide more details on the numbers.

Thank you, Nick. As a reminder, the majority of our sales are denominated in dollars. However, our cost base is a mix of dollars, euros, and British pounds as we have a significant presence in Europe, including both manufacturing and R&T. As a result, when the dollar strengthens against the euro and the pound, our sales translate lower, while our costs also translate lower, leading to a net benefit to our margins. Conversely, a weak dollar is a headwind to our financial results. We hedge this currency exposure over a 10-quarter horizon to protect our operating income. As a result, currency changes are layered into financial results over time. As a reminder, the year-over-year sales comparisons I will provide are in constant currency, which thereby removes the foreign exchange impact to sales. Our Q3 sales were impacted by the expected seasonality we previously highlighted as well as some general challenges in the commercial aerospace market supply chain. However, as Nick described, the outlook for Commercial Aerospace remains extremely robust, providing us the confidence to position our infrastructure and workforce for the anticipated strong growth ahead. Turning to our three markets. Commercial Aerospace represented approximately 60% of total third quarter sales. Third quarter Commercial Aerospace sales of $251.9 million increased 19.2% compared to the third quarter of 2022, led by growth in the Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 programs. Total narrowbody sales, including the Airbus A320neo, Airbus A220, and Boeing MAX were unchanged year-over-year. The other commercial aerospace category grew 20% with business jets displaying the most significant growth. Space and Defense represented approximately 31% of third quarter sales and totaled $128.8 million, increasing 17.1% from the same period in 2022. Sales strength came from a variety of different programs, including a number of international fixed-wing aircraft programs and domestically from growth in classified programs. Industrial comprised approximately 9% of third quarter 2023 sales. Industrial sales totaled $38.8 million, decreasing 21.3% compared to the third quarter of 2022. The high-end automotive market, which is where we focus, grew strongly year-over-year, while wind continued to weaken. The global wind industry is currently facing a number of challenges, and we are experiencing lower demand as a result. As a reminder, all of our wind energy production and expertise is now concentrated in Austria following our restructuring in North America and China. On a consolidated basis, gross margin for the third quarter was 21.8% compared to 22.4% last year. With the anticipated strong growth ahead, the company has infrastructure and headcount in place to meet the forecasted high levels of demand and ensure our customers are fully supported as aircraft build rates continue to ramp. This growth-related overhead, however, is a headwind in the short term, impacting margins, particularly in periods with lower run rate sales such as we saw in the third quarter. As a percentage of sales, selling, general and administrative expenses and R&T expenses, were 11.6% in the third quarter compared to 11.1% in the third quarter of 2022. The increase reflects the necessary infrastructure for new commercial growth as well as supporting the R&T organization with new product development. Adjusted operating income in the third quarter was $42.8 million or 10.2% of sales, compared to $41.2 million or 11.3% of sales in the comparable prior year period. Due to our hedging program, foreign exchange rates had no impact on third quarter adjusted operating income when comparing to the prior year. Now turning to our two segments. The Composite Materials segment represented 81% of total sales and generated an operating margin of 12.3%. The operating margin in the comparable prior year period was 13.4%. The Engineered Products segment, which is comprised of our structures and engineered core businesses, represented 19% of total sales and generated a 7.8% operating income margin as compared to 8.3% in the comparable prior year period. Net cash provided by operating activities was $98.1 million year-to-date compared to $56.4 million for the comparable period in 2022. Working capital was a cash use of $112.1 million year-to-date to support higher sales. For the comparable prior year period, working capital increased $115 million. Our strong focus on disciplined working capital management continues, as illustrated by the inventory reduction in the third quarter despite the lower revenue. Excellent performance on collections also supported third quarter working capital reduction. As just mentioned, our focus on inventory is becoming evident with raw materials decreasing approximately $20 million on a sequential basis as we purposefully reduced our buffer or safety stock. As previously discussed, our supply chain and input lead times have improved significantly from the first half of 2022. We continue to target further inventory reductions. Capital expenditures on an accrual basis were $88.7 million year-to-date in 2023, which included the previously disclosed property purchase for our facility in Massachusetts. Without the property purchase in 2023, capital expenditure would be $50.7 million, which compares to $49.1 million in the prior year period. Free cash flow for the first 9 months of 2023 was $3.7 million, which includes the Massachusetts property acquisition, but does not include the proceeds from the Colorado facility sold in the third quarter. For the comparable prior year period, free cash flow was negative $1.9 million. The Board of Directors declared a $0.125 quarterly dividend yesterday, payable to stockholders of record as of November 3 with the payment of November 13. We repurchased approximately $30 million of common stock in the third quarter. The remaining authorization under the share repurchase program on September 30, 2023, was $187 million. The company's net debt-to-EBITDA leverage was approximately 1.8 times at the end of the third quarter. We are maintaining our 2023 guidance, except for adjusting the estimated annual tax rate due to some favorable law changes domestically and internationally. Our 2023 estimated annual effective tax rate is now 21% compared to 23% previously. As a reminder, our sales guidance is $1.765 billion to $1.835 billion. Our adjusted EPS guidance is $1.80 to $1.94. And free cash flow is guided to be greater than $110 million. With that, let me turn the call back to Nick.

Thanks, Patrick. Most of you know that we have a significant presence in Morocco. We are deeply saddened by the loss of life following the earthquake last month that tragically devastated parts of the country. Fortunately, all our employees in that region are safe and our engineered core operations in Casablanca remain fully operational. As a final note, I want to share that our leadership team and members of our Board of Directors spent time earlier this month with our R&T team reviewing new products and processes in development, and we couldn't be more excited about the future of Hexcel's technology offering and the tremendous potential impact those advanced lightweight composites will have in enabling the reduction of CO2 emissions in the environment through greater fuel efficiency and modern aircraft and other forms of transportation. As you may remember from our comments in the past, we meet with our R&T leadership team every year, and this year, it was a pleasure to meet for the first time at our new Center of Research and Technology Excellence in Salt Lake City. While these meetings dig deep into data and the details of fiber tensile strength, modulus and the chemistry of precursors and resins, one simple fact always emerges from these technical discussions and that is our customer aligned approach to product development is a key differentiator for Hexcel. We innovate based on the collaboration and continuous dialogue we have with our customers. When we develop new products, we know the application and customer expectations, which make us highly efficient. Our engineers and researchers have daily conversations with customers as we work closely with them to develop the next generation of lightweight solutions. These customer engagements are now deeper than ever, and we are fully aligned with their road maps as we design new lighter and stronger materials especially for improved fuel efficiency and life cycle costs. We are firmly convinced that the key to improving sustainability is light-weighted, that composites are a prime enabler, and Hexcel is the world's leader in providing lightweight sustainable materials for the aerospace, space and defense and select industrial markets. Paul, we're now ready to take questions.

We'll go first this morning to Matt Akers at Wells Fargo.

Thanks for the question. Maybe just to put a finer point on the margin discussion. I guess so margins down year-over-year even though sales were higher. Is most of that because of this kind of cost issue of you basically hired people ahead of the demand coming through? Or is there any sort of mix issue or anything else that sort of impacted margins for the quarter?

Yes, good morning. It primarily relates to the gradual infrastructure and cost base we've been establishing over the past several quarters to prepare for the strong growth we anticipate in the coming years. We're operating more lines, as Nick mentioned, although they may not all be running efficiently or at the desired utilization levels. We have increased staffing and are continuously training to enhance their experience. Thus, we're maintaining a higher overhead and infrastructure level for future growth, which will take time to translate into a top line that effectively drives production and sales to boost margins. Furthermore, the forecasted reduction in margins during our third quarter is largely attributed to the impact of European seasonality rather than any issues with product mix.

Okay. Understood. And then I guess some of the, I guess, the industry supply chain is you mentioned flat narrowbody year-over-year. Is any of that, I guess, driven by Hexcel supply chain you think so? Or is it more demand from your customers? And do you have any view on sort of how long that linger effect could go last in 2024?

Yes, Matt. So basically, the challenges that the OEs are dealing with are certainly not related to Hexcel. We're in a great position with capacity and resources available to meet their growing demand and their projected growing demand. There are a few issues out there that really are limiting the ramp rate on the growth, where the OEs want to take the narrowbody and the widebodies. And it just slowed it down a little bit, caused some inspections and reworks within that supply chain. And my perspective is that these will be resolved. And given the demand and the pull for those new lightweight narrowbody and widebody aircraft, the rates are going to continue to go up, and that's what we're positioning for is strong '24 and '25 build rates and growth for Hexcel.

Great. Thank you.

We will next go to Gavin Parsons at UBS. One moment gentlemen, it looks like we actually lost Mr. Parsons. We'll go next now to Ken Herbert at RBC.

Yes, hi. Good morning, Nick and Patrick. Maybe just to put a finer point on the margin question. If you had sort of seen the increase in narrowbody volume that maybe been contemplated earlier in the year, would we have seen the same kind of margin impact year-over-year? Or how much of a factor was basically flat volume on the narrowbody side?

Well, let me start. Clearly, increased demand on the narrowbody would have helped, but it would not have changed our position and the fact that in the environment we're in, after taking our assets down to the low point we did at the pandemic to preserve cash and to position for a strong viable future, we knowingly took out 35% of our resources in our heads. In today's hiring environment, with the unemployment where it is, with the pull for talent globally, we had to get ahead of the hiring, and we do that intentionally so that we can train them, and as the growth comes, we can get the efficiency back to and above 2019 levels. And I have to tell you, the third quarter, we're seeing our efficiencies come up. And as that demand and that growth continues to pull through for Q4 and into '24 and '25, we're expecting to convert very strongly on that volume. So to answer your question, Ken, it would have an effect, but it wouldn't have negated the seasonality and the lower demand.

Okay. And I guess, I mean, you seem to be on a fairly nice trajectory when we look at the gross margins. We can appreciate the seasonality. But was there anything else that maybe deteriorated in the quarter as you think about maybe costs in Europe or logistics or other aspects of the supply chain that maybe push you to see sort of greater inefficiency or maybe take a more sort of cautious view on sort of your own pull forward of cost to support future rate ramp?

I mean, absolutely nothing to make us more cautious on the future opportunity and the future ramp. Now obviously, we're cognizant of what's happening with the narrowbodies and the challenges that Nick talked to in that space. I think they're well known. And obviously, we are ready to support both Airbus and Boeing as they move the 320 and the MAX rates up, and we are certainly ready to do that, and we will not be causing any delays. In terms of the cost, it's really about the overhead base and the overhead leverage ability. Given the volume of sales, there isn't anything specific I would call out on the cost front. It's as I was saying to Matt, it's really about that gradual buildup in our infrastructure, in our workforce ready for the clear growth ahead. And we are not going to be late for that. And so aligning those two things is never perfect. And so our cost base is perhaps just a little bit ahead of the sales growth, but we're going to be ready. And when that comes, we will generate the margins, and we will generate the cash.

Great. Alright. Well, thank you very much.

We'll go next now to Myles Walton at Wolfe Research.

Good morning. Patrick or Nick, I'm not sure, but maybe just to clarify, was the margin performance in the quarter about as you expected? And then maybe just looking forward, Nick, you're talking about the growth that you're sort of building towards, is it still fair to think about a double-digit growth into next year? And then the margin profile of getting to mid-teens at $2 billion in sales, is that still on the table?

Yes. The margin in Q3 was close to our expectations because we likely experienced seasonal sales that we recognized more than was acknowledged externally. The margins were not significantly off from what we anticipated, perhaps slightly softer but not greatly. Looking ahead, we predict strong double-digit growth for the next couple of years, with 2025 potentially returning us to the levels of 2019. That should be the expectation. We are committed to achieving mid-teens margins and will reach that goal once we align our cost base with the appropriate sales level. We need to invest in training and infrastructure, but we believe we can surpass mid-teens margins once revenue increases. This won’t happen immediately, but it remains our target, and we are committed to it.

Got it. Just to clarify on the industrial side, I have always viewed that business as having lower margins than the core. However, it seems to be reaching a point where the sales are so low that it could actually be a net drag on profit. Can you provide insight into the profitability of the industrial business in relation to composite materials at this time?

So I'll take a shot at, first, splitting it and let's talk about wind for a minute. And again, remember, the wind technology transitioned to a lower technology and one that we chose not to pursue. And that resulted in us restructuring in North America as well as China. So we're serving the wind market out of our facility in Austria and supporting Vestas and a couple of other small ones. Remember, wind is less than 2% expected of Hexcel's total revenue this year. And it is at a lower margin, a lower cost to serve, a decent return on invested capital, but a lower margin profile. On the balance of the industrial, the automotive, the select areas that we find niches to introduce our technology and differentiated solutions, the margin really is not dilutive to Hexcel. Perhaps in some of those high-end automotive and niche applications, when we do fall off on sales a little bit because of inflationary recessionary pressures on rec or winter sports or some of those other markets, it could have a slight dilutive effect on the margins.

Okay. Thank you.

We'll go next now to Gavin Parsons at UBS.

Hey, good morning. Can you guys hear me?

Good morning.

We can.

Thank you. Sorry for the tech issues. Apologies if I missed this, but can you talk a little bit about how much the capacity step-up is what growth rates you kind of hired ahead for there? And how much of the double-digit top line revenue growth is now already in the cost base?

We're actively increasing our assets, and to give you a rough idea, if you think back to 2019 when we were operating near full capacity, we were in the mid-90% range. Currently, our asset utilization is around 75%. This reflects that some of our plants have lines that are still down or are operating below 100% capacity. Although this leads to less efficiency, it is a strategic choice to prevent inventory overbuild and to maintain a healthy cash position moving forward. Specifically in the fiber segment, we've added significant assets and resources over the past 3 to 6 months, which is crucial for Hexcel's cash flow and profitability. Most of our production lines are now running as expected for the next several months, and we believe we are well-positioned in this area. Other facilities may see some additional resources depending on the technology we use, but in general, we are entering 2024 ready to meet demand effectively.

Great. I appreciate that detail. And then on buybacks, is your anticipation there that as your cash flow strengthens, you'll do something regular? Or was that an opportunistic purchase in the quarter?

Well, we constantly look at our capital structure. And we're back into the range where we like to operate our net debt leverage ratio in the 1.8 region. So we review that with the Board on a regular basis with respect to what opportunities are there for collaborations, what areas do we have with respect to internal investment? And then what's our opportunities with respect to dividend strategy and share buyback? So it really was an opportunity for us to undilute what we issued in 2023. Clearly, given our leverage position and our increased cash flow forecast, we're going to be looking at that much more actively going forward.

Thank you.

You’re welcome.

We’ll go next now to Peter Skibitski at Alembic Global.

Yes, good morning. I would like to get your perspective on the outlook for Space and Defense as we move into next year. You have shown strong performance in the last couple of quarters, and the trends appear to be quite positive. With the CH-53K making good progress, I am curious if you can achieve another double-digit growth in Space and Defense next year. Thank you.

Yes. I mean, we've stepped up. I mean I think last quarter was a record quarter, all-time record quarter for Space & Defense with the seasonality. We came off that a little bit in the third quarter, but we've seen sustained strength in that market. And we've really had a couple of years with very high, very strong growth. Now it depends on what time frame you're looking at. I mean if you kind of look over the next 2 to 3 years, we're going to see a lot of growth over that period. The F-35 for us still has room to grow. The CH-53K is going to grow substantially. There are European programs, which are strong, and we're across such a broad range with the military budgets moving the direction they are. Now I'm not going to say it's going to be double digits every year, but over the two, three years, Space & Defense is going to continue to be a very strong sector for Hexcel, and I'm confident in further growth.

Any risk to Defense program revenue in the next couple of years that you see in the past? Is it just budgets passing on time or any other risks that we should think about?

I mean I don't want to be complacent. There's always budgetary risks. But right now, I think this is one of the strongest sort of periods, healthiest periods, if you like, for Space & Defense and looking forward we've seen for a long time. So as confident as we can be without absolute guarantees. We see growth in the next couple of years in Space & Defense.

Okay. Thank you.

We'll go next now to Kristine Liwag at Morgan Stanley.

Great, Nick, and Pat, it's clear from your commentary that you've invested in headcount and infrastructure ahead of the OEM, but can you provide an update on which specific production rates you can support today for the 737, 787, and A350?

We are aligned with our customers and remain flexible in our approach. For Boeing, we're currently in the low 30s for the MAX, and Boeing is striving to increase that to 38. We have the capacity for this increase and will provide more details in our 2024 plan. We aim to reach 50 in the 2025 to 2026 timeframe. For the 787, we're at 4 to 5, and Boeing plans to reach 10 by 2025 to 2026. This will be a gradual increase, and you can estimate a stable transition similar to previous years. Regarding Airbus, we are at the mid-50s for the year overall, though we were lower in Q3, with an expected ramp up to 75 by 2026. Airbus has not provided specific targets for 2024 or 2025, but we expect to align with their projections and will share more in our 2024 guidance. For the A350, we are at 6, and Airbus intends to reach 9 by the end of 2025. This program is significant for us, and we anticipate continued orders for widebodies, driven by increasing needs for efficiency and longer routes due to changes in traffic patterns. This provides an overview of our positioning for 2024, 2025, and 2026.

Thank you for the color. And maybe a follow-up question on wind. Pat, you mentioned that wind transitioned to a lower technology that Hexcel decided not to pursue. So how much revenue is left in wind in Austria? And how much more of a step down do you expect?

Our largest wind customer has been Vestas, which has been the market leader for over 20 years. We have developed a strong relationship with them, supporting their operations effectively. Vestas was once vertically integrated and produced their own blades with specialized technology. However, they decided to shift their focus and move towards an outsourcing model, which has led to the adoption of more commodity-type materials. This new direction does not align with our strategy. The latest wind turbines from Vestas and other companies are using outsourced blades made with these commodity technologies. Currently, we have a solid legacy business serving Vestas in Europe, although we face some challenges due to inflation and regulatory pressures affecting demand. Despite this, we believe there is a sustained demand that will continue for several years, although at a significantly lower rate compared to what we experienced two to four years ago.

I really appreciate the color. Thank you.

We'll go next now to John McNulty at BMO Capital Markets.

Thank you for taking my questions. My first question is about the implied fourth quarter range, which is quite broad given that it's toward the end of the year. Could you help us understand what factors contribute to the low end of that range, which is around $0.42? Additionally, what factors could push you to the higher end of the range at $0.56? Please help us think through the considerations involved.

Yes. I mean the biggest put and take is clearly the top line, John. I mean, we've obviously got the midpoint at $1.8 and $1.87 as you can see. And I guess that's where we're really focusing, and that's what we're targeting to deliver for the year. But we're also recognizing there is uncertainty in the aerospace supply chain right now, and that could pop to the positive this quarter if things suddenly align and we get a pull-through material to support the ramp rates that we know the OEMs are trying to do. But likewise, as we've seen several times over the last couple of years, there are bumps and hiccups in this aerospace supply chain as the world sort of starts to normalize and get back to where we were pre-pandemic in sort of an efficient flowing industry. So we're focusing really on the midpoint as our target to deliver, but we do unfortunately recognize that there are still risks and challenges out there. Now that could fall in our favor, but we certainly wanted to recognize that there could be headwinds.

Okay. And just to be clear, would you say the midpoint of the range reflects kind of status quo on the supply chain or modest improvement? Or I guess, how should we think about that?

I would say it's a return to a more normal run rate of sales, not seasonally affected. We're hopeful that the current state of supply chain issues is somewhat improved, but overall, we're operating as we are today without any seasonal influences.

Got it. And then maybe just as a follow-up question, you spoke to pulling back on inventory and a bigger focus there. And I think you'd mentioned a $20 million sequential improvement. I guess, how much farther do you think you can pull back on those rains while still being ready for what potentially is a bigger ramp-up from some of your customers as you look to 2024?

Yes. So the $20 million sequential pullback was specifically on raw materials. Overall inventory was down about $4 million. So we saw a little bit of growth in other areas, but there was a reduction, and obviously, the starting point is raw materials. We will continue to be aggressive and disciplined around inventory. I think we've spoken to it a few times. The real metric we're looking at is the relative days of inventory that we hold. And so the first objective is to allow our sales to grow certainly into next year and beyond that and hold this level of sort of dollar inventory. Now we will look to squeeze it in the fourth quarter. I think there's some opportunity to do that. But most importantly, it's really holding this level of inventory as our sales grow and essentially improving the days holding fairly significantly over the coming sort of periods.

Got it. Thanks very much.

We'll go next now to Scott Deuschle at Deutsche Bank.

Hey, good morning.

Good morning, Scott.

Nick, is there any opportunity to open the door with OEMs to discuss the prospect of getting some better price given the inflation that's out there, kind of like some of the other OE suppliers have been able to achieve? Or is that conversation ultimately a nonstarter given that you're still generating some nice profitability here? Thank you.

No. So I think our team does a great job on getting price and value pricing our products for what it does for our customers. Remember, in a lot of the commercial aerospace programs, we have long-term agreements where we have indices and formula that help protect both us in inflationary, increased cost scenarios or raw material inputs, and it protects our customers where it's declining. So there tend to be a lag, but overall, we constantly look to help our customers with their productivity initiatives. We do that through driving productivity through our systems and identifying new opportunities to leverage our growth. So I'd say we certainly have other areas that aren't on long-term contract, and our team worked those very hard, especially in the Industrial segment and some other smaller niche areas where we are able to get price based on the environment we're in today.

Okay, great. Thank you.

We go next now to Gautam Khanna at TD Cowen.

Hey, good morning, guys.

Good morning, Gautam.

I was wondering if you could just talk a little bit about the components of the implied Q4 free cash flow. And is there any efforts underway to maybe make it a little more linear because the last couple of years would have been pretty back-end loaded?

Historically, our cash flow tends to be back-end loaded. That's just how our business operates. For the fourth quarter this year, it's going to be driven by income, which we aim to align with our guided EPS. We're going to manage working capital closely, and I see opportunities around inventory. We'll focus strongly on collecting receivables, as we typically do in the fourth quarter, and we will manage payables as well. It’s really about maintaining sensible cash discipline. We're managing our capital effectively, and as we've mentioned before, we don't have significant capacity needs. We continue to enhance our lines and make use of existing assets. We expect to see this in the fourth quarter and into next year. Last year, we achieved nearly $100 million in Q4, and we believe we can reach that level again this year.

Thank you. I was also curious if this quarter had any impact on margins related to hiring. Could you describe some of the one-time expenses this year, such as tooling, which was mentioned in previous quarters? Are there any other nonrecurring items that might make comparisons easier for next year, aside from what we discussed in Q3?

There really were not material one-timers. The hiring and the efficiency improvements that we're driving in the plants and bringing people in, again, I think we've shared that some of the positions in our fiber business take 9 months to a year to get to a minimum efficiency level for an operator to be able to work alone on the line. I would say there's some added effort going on with the CH-53K ramp and the first articles. And that program is really just starting to ramp up. So we're clearly not as efficient in the engineered structures area there as we will be as those first articles are complete, the qualification is complete, and we streamline the deliveries to our customer. Other than that, we continue to work hard on recruiting and finding top talent. And the team has been very successful, but it's hard work, and it takes a little bit longer. And the attrition is a little bit higher than it had been pre-pandemic, and you have to build all that in. And again, when you're fully sourced for key programs, you can't be sure. And that's really what drove us to make sure we're not short and we have that capacity in place. So we've talked about that. Other than that, there really are no other one-timers that we're going at and attacking other than operational excellence and efficiency.

Great. Thank you, guys.

We'll go back to now to Sheila Kahyaoglu at Jeffries.

Thanks so much. Good morning, Nick and Patrick. So maybe first question on Defense & Space, really good performance there on the top line. Can you maybe talk about the profitability within Defense & Space business as you ramp on some of these programs and their delta in space there?

Yes. Sheila. I mean, Space & Defense is very similar to Commercial Aero in terms of its profile profitability. It contains a fair amount of Hexcel carbon fiber. And as we've called out before, pulling through Hexcel carbon fiber in a mix of sales is good. So we generate good earnings, good margins. We have quite a lot of engineered core and honeycomb in some of our military applications, all the way through to the technology work, there's a business we acquired in early 2019. So overall, the profitability profile with those strong sales is good, Sheila.

Great. And then maybe, Nick, one for you. In your prepared remarks, you mentioned investing in new programs years in advance of them coming to market. Can you talk about how that could manifest itself in your P&L?

Yes, there are many areas to focus on. Following our R&T review, I can share that we have several initiatives aimed at improving the performance of our fibers, as well as the efficiency of our production lines and their mechanical performance and throughput. We operate numerous lines, and by replicating these efforts, we see significant opportunities for Hexcel. Our initiatives focus not just on performance, but also on processing. We aim to assist our customers in processing materials more quickly, allowing them to lay down and cure materials faster, ultimately leading to reduced life cycle costs and enhanced efficiency. Every aspect of our portfolio, whether it’s fibers, resin systems, prepregs, infusion products, or other new technologies that are still under wraps, is being actively worked on with our customers. There is considerable demand for improved performance, increased throughput, and greater cost-effectiveness.

Thank you.

And it looks like we do have time for one more question this morning. We'll take that now from Michael Ciarmoli at Truist.

Good morning, everyone. I appreciate the opportunity to ask a question. I would like to address the margins and capacity additions. Although you are not providing guidance for 2024, will the excess costs related to adding capacity and labor impact the performance in 2024? If rates are rising and more additions are needed next year, should we anticipate reaching your projected margin targets by 2025 or 2026? It seems the Street estimates margins at 15.5% for next year, but considering the ongoing supply chain challenges, should we prepare for some headwinds in the coming year?

I believe, as I mentioned earlier, we remain confident in our goal of achieving mid-teens margins as we grow our revenue. We are working to align our cost structure with our top-line performance while also considering inflationary pressures we experienced this year, particularly in energy, which has posed challenges, along with some labor costs that have been higher than usual. However, we are positive about our overall outlook and are determined to reach those mid-teens margins. Additionally, we expect to generate significant cash over the next two to three years, which will create many opportunities for capital deployment that we plan to approach thoughtfully. We will manage our performance on a quarterly basis. While we cannot provide guidance for 2024 at this time, we are very optimistic about our future prospects.

Got it. Thanks, guys.

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude the Hexcel third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. We'd like to thank you all so much for joining us today and wish you all a great remainder of your day. Goodbye.