Icahn Enterprises L.P. Q3 FY2022 Earnings Call

Thank you, operator. The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a safe harbor for forward-looking statements we make in this presentation, including statements regarding our future performance and plans for our businesses and potential acquisitions. Forward-looking statements may be identified by words such as expects, anticipates, intends, plans, believes, seeks, estimates, will or words of similar meaning and include, but are not limited to, statements about the expected future business and financial performance of Icahn Enterprises LP and its subsidiaries. Actual events, results and outcomes may differ materially from our expectations due to a variety of known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that are discussed in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including economic, competitive, legal and other factors, including the severity, magnitude and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic. Accordingly, there is no assurance that our expectations will be realized. We assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements should circumstances change, except as otherwise required by law. This presentation also includes certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of such non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the back of this presentation. I'll now turn it over to David Willetts, our Chief Executive Officer.

Thank you, Rob. Good morning and welcome to the third quarter 2022 Icahn Enterprises earnings conference call. Joining me on today's call is Ted Papapostolou, our Chief Financial Officer. Together, we'll provide an overview of Q3 results and then be available for questions. Before we get into the results, I'd like to reemphasize that we believe activism is the best paradigm for investing. We are putting our activist principles into effect in both our majority-controlled and our minority positions held in our Investment segment. Additionally, we strongly believe in hedging our positions to mitigate risk, especially in the volatile markets that we're living in today. For the sake of brevity, all net income and EBITDA amounts we'll discuss are attributable to Icahn Enterprises, unless we otherwise specify. Now onto the numbers. For the nine months ended September 30, 2022, net income was $72 million or $0.23 per depository unit and our adjusted EBITDA was $812 million. For reference, last year's first nine months figures were a net loss of $122 million or a loss of $0.47 per depository unit and adjusted EBITDA of $715 million. Our third quarter discrete results were a net loss of $123 million with adjusted EBITDA of $70 million. This represents a quarter-over-quarter improvement of $25 million in net loss and a decrease of $18 million in adjusted EBITDA. Our indicative net asset value, as of quarter end, increased by $1 billion to $6.2 billion as compared to December 31, 2021. The change in indicative net asset value includes, among other things, changes in the fair value of certain subsidiaries that are not included in our GAAP earnings reported above. Regarding our segments, year-to-date, our investment funds had a positive return of 2.4%, which includes a negative Q3 return of 1.9%. For comparison, the S&P 500 was down approximately 24% for the year and down 5% for the quarter. CVI ended the quarter with continued strong performance, largely due to crack spreads, which is facilitating continued dividend distributions. We are in the process of upgrading select management teams. In this case, we have replaced the CEO, have invested in a new Head of Manufacturing, and are refocusing the business on margin growth and factory performance. At Pep Boys, we're in the process of replacing the CEO and looking to upgrade other members of the senior management. The Board declared a $2 quarterly distribution payable in cash or additional units. And with that, let me turn it over to Ted for a detailed discussion of all of our segments.

Thanks, David. I will begin by reviewing our consolidated results, and then highlight the performance of our operating segments, and comment on the strength of our balance sheet. For Q3 2022, we had a net loss of $123 million and adjusted EBITDA of $70 million compared to a net loss of $148 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $88 million in the prior year period. I'll now provide more detail regarding the performance of our individual segments. As David mentioned, the investment funds had a negative return of 1.9% for the quarter, which was primarily driven by net losses in loan positions and credit default swaps, offset in part by net gains in other short positions. For the quarter, long positions had a negative performance attribution of 4.9%, while short positions and other had a positive performance attribution of 3%. The investment funds had a net short notional exposure of 54% at the end of the quarter, compared to a net short notional exposure of 28% at the end of Q2. Our investment in the funds was approximately $4.4 billion as of quarter end. And now to our Energy segment. In Q3 2022, our Energy segment reported net sales of $2.7 billion compared to $1.9 billion in the prior year quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $124 million for Q3 2022, compared to $143 million in Q3 2021. CVI declared a $1.40 per share cash dividend, which includes a special dividend of $1 per share, and CVR Partners declared a third quarter cash distribution of $1.77 per unit. Q3 2022 refining margin per barrel was $16.56, compared to $15.03 in the prior year quarter. This increase was primarily due to widening frac spreads. The cost of RINs continues to have a negative impact on our refining business, with $136 million of related expense for the quarter. Q3 2022 average realized gate prices for UAN improved by 42% to $433 per ton and ammonia improved by 65% to $837 per ton when compared to the prior year quarter. And now turning to our Auto segment. Q3 2022 net sales and service revenues for the Automotive segment were $625 million, an increase of $31 million from the prior year quarter. Q3 2022 adjusted EBITDA was $1 million compared to $14 million in the prior year quarter. Q3 2022 automotive service revenue increased by $55 million, as compared to the prior year period, mainly due to volume and price increases. During the quarter, the service business was negatively impacted by unfavorable product mix and several non-recurring SG&A items. Aftermarket parts sales decreased by $34 million, mainly due to store closures as part of the transformation plan. And to our Real Estate segment. Q3 2022 net sales and other revenues increased by $3 million compared to the prior year quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $7 million for Q3 2022, compared to $2 million in Q3 2021. The segment continued its strong performance and the management team is focused on increasing occupancy across the portfolio. And to our other segments. Q3 2022 net sales and other revenues from all other operating segments was flat compared to the prior year quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $5 million for Q3 2022 compared to $10 million for Q3 2021. This case's priority throughout the year has been to raise prices to offset historic distribution and raw material cost inflation, which the team has substantially completed. The principal impact for the quarter has been an underperforming plant, which has led to higher costs and scrap rates. The manufacturing team is highly focused on turning this plant around and resolving the inefficiencies. Home Fashion continues to experience high demand for its hospitality products, retailers broadly are reevaluating and reducing their inventories for home fashion goods and have markedly reduced their purchasing. This has directly impacted results within the segment. During the quarter, a bad debt reserve of $4 million was recorded for two significant retail customers. The Pharma segment continues to experience strong script growth for both of its commercial products. Now turning to our liquidity. We maintain liquidity at the holding company and each of our operating subsidiaries to take advantage of attractive opportunities. We ended the quarter with cash, cash equivalents, our investment in the investment funds, and revolver availability, totaling approximately $7.1 billion. Our subsidiaries have approximately $761 million of cash and $291 million of undrawn credit facilities to enable them to take advantage of attractive opportunities. In summary, we continue to focus on building asset value and maintaining liquidity to enable us to capitalize on opportunities within and outside our existing operating segments. Thank you. Operator, can you please open the call up for questions?

Thank you. Our first question comes from Daniel Fannon with Jefferies. Please proceed.

Thanks. Good morning. Just wanted to talk about the auto segment and just the outlook as you think about both growth and profitability. Obviously, the store closures have been planned, those are flowing through, but just other aspects of the business, other cost-cutting measures, or other things you're doing to think about profitability and the outlook for that business in the intermediate term?

All right. Good morning, Dan. It's a good question. Let's decompose auto a little bit. And I'll talk about the services segment principally in responding. So I think there are three things we should touch on. The first is what does the top line look like and what do the macros look like for the business over the next few quarters, potentially going into a recessionary environment. I think the first macro is generally recessions are good for the service business as folks delay capital purchases for cars and that means they are running their existing cars or existing fleets, which have a higher maintenance component to them. So generally heading into a down market in the services business is not necessarily bad. That said, the second piece is what does that mean with regards to ticket price? Folks are going to be pretty mindful about only buying what they need to buy. And I think when we take a look at this year, you've had some pretty substantial revenue growth, much of which has been driven through price as we have successfully passed through the cost increases that have come from suppliers and from our labor force as well as pricing our services to what we think is a market-appropriate return. That's the area where I see some potential pressure. And to your point, the third bucket is, how do we get more efficient. And when I look at services, there are really two components. Are we as lean as we can be with our SG&A in our back office? The answer is no. We are currently in the process of doing two things. One is just resizing the overall headcount levels as well as cost levels. The second is work elimination. Think of this as more continuous improvement. Let's eliminate the work, let's streamline things versus just mandate them. So on the SG&A front, that is active and that is going to be pronounced in next year's results. And we would expect that to have a pretty substantial discussion point in Q4 and then continuing throughout next year. On the variable costs, there is a lot to be done with our partners from tire manufacturers to parts manufacturers to work through the supply chain, to get not just the right price, but the right degree of cash investment that we need to make. That is active. You are actively partnering with those vendors to really reset the relationships in a positive and constructive way for both companies, ourselves as well as our partners. On the operating costs in the stores, frankly I think we've been lagging there and we are actively looking at putting in basic, what I would consider to be efficiency programs. How do we streamline, how long it takes us to do a tire change or an oil change? We're actively looking at upgrading store managers and regional managers with the right skill sets so that they can really service the customers far better and give them more value as well as more value for us. So our principal approach there is to coach versus replace, but obviously there will be a few folks along the way. The last thing which we haven't done a good job of candidly is we haven't done much in the way of greenfields. I think there have been you can wind out in a few different ways four to six greenfields over the last few years. That is totally unacceptable and we need to target something well north of that to fill in areas and grow with the population growth. That is something that we're currently sizing. We have a number of greenfields that we're targeting to open really over the course of this year with an acceleration next and we're just sizing exactly where it makes sense to go so that may be more than you wanted, Dan. But I think the holistic thesis is we have to get better on multiple fronts and accelerate. And the CEO replacement and COO replacement and several other management will help effectuate that, getting folks that are appropriate for this next stage of the journey and really drive forward with speed, haste, and pragmatism. Does that help, Dan?

That's helpful. I see that it's a multi-step process with many initiatives involved. If we consider mid next year for implementation and the impact on the numbers in the latter half of next year, is that the right perspective? Or do you think it might be reasonable to expect something sooner?

I think that remains to be seen. We're still working through the exact timing of the plans. What I'd say is there are many actions that are going to be executed in Q4. But those are not limited to Q4. There'll be ones in Q1 and Q2. To your point, it's a multifaceted approach. When that hits the ledger will be a little different. I think we'll have a number of cash items as in cash-generative items that can hit relatively quickly. I think some of the income items will be a little bit TBD. I'd like to think it's earlier than the second half of next year, but we don't have the timing fully measured out so I could commit to something earlier to I desire it.

Understood. My follow-up question is just on the dividends from the various businesses. So, is energy the only dividend that IEP received this quarter? And I believe you said there was a special in there too. I guess, just kind of thinking about the outlook for kind of dividends from the various investments and how we should think about that also on a prospective basis.

Certainly. When we consider our owned companies, CVI and UAN are exceptional given the current crack spreads. We keep a close watch on this, and Dan Lampard's team effectively maximizes output from both the refineries and the fertilizer plants. I'm cautiously optimistic. The forecast indicates that EBITDA will likely persist, and we assume this will be accompanied by a consistent dividend stream rather than a reduction. We will assess the possibility of a special dividend on a quarterly basis. As for the other companies, the only noteworthy mention would be Pep Boys, which is not currently generating cash for us. Due to the greenfields, they will require a significant amount of capital, so I wouldn’t expect a dividend from them soon. However, I’m not overly concerned since the company has no external debt, and a dividend recap could always be a possibility down the line. In addition, WestPoint Home and VIVUS are relatively small at the moment, so even if they issued dividends, it wouldn't have a significant impact.

Understood. And then just, I guess one more on LatAm just the investment fund. And under the short positioning, you're getting a little bit growing, I should say, kind of where it sits today. So broadly speaking, I would assume that's a more conservative outlook just in terms of the broader markets. As you think about the fully invested versus cash? Just trying to get a sense of where the fund sits today and kind of how you're viewing the current environment for new investments in the fund versus kind of still maybe being a bit more cautious and waiting?

That's the debate we have constantly in terms of are we at the maximum degree of uncertainty and at the bottom, or is there more uncertainty? Certainly with the rate hikes with deflation, you can look at the market in two ways depending on your perspective. So we're still in the mode of evaluating a number of investments. We anticipate putting capital to work. We have a number of items in the pipeline. I think right now the question is really timing. So we're optimistic, but the question is the time frame. Certainly over 2023, we hope that things are solidly more solidly more positive in terms of making a very concrete series of investments. But we have several that either will be announced or have been. In terms of the overall short position, I don't think we've gotten more conservative candidly. I think the shorts have just done relatively well. So that has expanded the relative percentage of short we have in the portfolio. And earlier in the year we harvested some of the longs. So, you've seen a little rebalancing but I wouldn't say that's a shift in strategy. It's a combination of opportunity and performance. Is that fair, Ted?

That's right, Dave.

Great. Thanks for answering my question.

You're welcome.

Thank you. The next question comes from Bruce Monrad with Northeast Investors. Please go ahead.

Hi guys, can you hear me okay?

Yes. Good morning, Bruce.

Okay, great. Good morning and thanks for hosting the call. I have a couple of questions as usual about this case, and since you don't break out the numbers, I'm a little confused. Was EBITDA mostly flat there? If I got that wrong, could you explain how you arrived at that value? Is that correct?

Yes. Yes, flat to slightly down. But just as a note when you look at the actual Q, you'll see we have summarized this presentation a bit. The queue still breaks it out. So when you look at it you'll be able to see the actual specifics for just this case.

Okay, great. I understand there are foreign exchange headwinds, and I would like some clarification on that. I expected a stronger quarter, so can you provide more detailed information on whether foreign exchange or pricing played a role? Also, I noticed that the line increased back in June, so maybe we should compare it to the fourth quarter, not the third quarter of last year. How are you viewing that? Would I be mistaken in thinking that the fourth quarter comparison should be easier? Could you address that, and I may have some follow-up questions if that's alright?

Yes, absolutely. We value this conversation in light of your investment. Looking at our past performance, particularly in 2021, it's clear we did not effectively manage pricing. Addressing pricing has become a major focus for us and has significantly contributed to stabilizing our profitability year-over-year. We faced issues with the production line in Osceola, which were initially resolved but then became problematic again due to high scrap rates and various training challenges. This situation has negatively impacted both our revenue and profit potential as well as our costs, and we have no excuses for this shortfall. The real question is what steps we are taking to address these issues. Our team is focusing on the fundamentals. Given the technical training needed for line operation, we are implementing rapid training to enhance plant management while also identifying the causes of waste on the line. Realistically, it will take us another quarter or two to resolve these concerns, and while that timeline is regrettable, it's what we anticipate. With that said...

Could you please clarify that for me again? I apologize for asking, but if the issue was unexpected, why is it taking so long to address? Thank you.

Ultimately, it gets to two things right; scrap rates on the line and two experienced operators on the line, right? We don't have enough experienced operators in the plant to run the line fully and at a low scrap rate. Secondarily, the scrap rates from the operators have been high. So it didn't make sense economically to run the line, right? You take that and that is what we have to fix and that's what the team is focused on fixing. We have a new CEO. We have a head of manufacturing that's new as of two months, because we didn't have the right focus in the company on addressing that issue.

Okay. So you're saying that the fourth quarter will not be easy?

I think on a comparable basis, I think you'll be pleased. I went through the numbers with the management team. I'm pretty optimistic and that is offsetting. I think the results won't have a fully restored line in Osceola, but I think the results will be favorable on a year-over-year basis even though that's still a headwind.

Well, I think it's interesting if I'm allowed to. When you engage with your customers, it appears that if you're incurring costs, regardless of whether they are seen as acceptable or not, this is a cost that your customer should be responsible for, right?

And I think we've had that dialogue with the customers this year. And I mean just to use a few numbers, if I take a look at the total amount of price that we've gotten year-over-year, it's substantial. On the bridge by far, it is the largest number that we have because we hadn't historically done that. We hadn't had a mature dialogue or relationship with the customers to explain we're adding value but there is a cost of the value. I think the year-over-year price that we're getting just in the third quarter, year-to-date alone is something like $37 million dropping to the bottom line. Now the lost profit opportunity on the line has been a headwind in Q3 and it will continue to be a drag in Q4. So I'd say price has been a major focus and it has actually delivered the results, but we have other operational issues that need to get back and restored. There are, obviously, a number of other price actions that we're taking. It's not a one and done particularly in Europe as we continue to forward price based on the costs we anticipate versus playing the game of catch-up.

Okay. I understand it's a small holding for you, but in terms of percentage, if anyone could benefit, it's this. EBITDA has been at $50 million for a long time. This deserves attention and focus, and it is definitely an undervalued opportunity.

When I take a look at this company, you should be doing a lot better. There's no question about that. It needs to have five to six, I mean a minimum percentage points more of EBITDA, likely closer to 10. And we weren't going to do it with the old team, and we have a new team that has demonstrated an ability to do this.

Okay. Last question, I promise. Are you referring to the new team, the CEO you mentioned from 12 to 24 months ago, not just a week ago or am I mistaken?

So Tim Feast is the new CEO. Tim and I have worked together for years in the past. He's had a number of very successful what I would consider to be specialty chemical, which ultimately is what this case is. He has leadership roles across multiple industries focused on extrusion technologies, consumer product-facing goods in the plastics and similar markets. So he has been there what Ted for two months.

About two months, yeah.

So he is getting his legs under him very, very quickly. And I'd say the Board is extremely pleased with what we've seen just in the first 60 days. But realistically, this is a company that has been asleep for probably 10 years. And it's going to take time but not much to upgrade the talent and get the right people, moving in the right direction, with the right metrics.

Well we look for – I know you put in $100 million, 265 and you're carrying it at $2 now and we carry it at $0.70. We look forward to partnering with you and we look forward to seeing those results. So, thank you.

Yes. I think you and I and the rest of the investors can have a cocktail when Tim and the team deliver. And that's the goal for next year.

Thank you.

You're welcome.

Thank you. And showing no further questions in the queue. I will turn the call back to David Willetts for final remarks.

All right. As always, we appreciate our investors and this opportunity to interface with you all and go through the numbers, hold us accountable and we'll be as transparent as we can. So with that said, we look forward to talking to everyone at the end of Q4 and wish everyone a good afternoon and a good weekend. Take care.

Thank you and everyone, thank you for participating in today's conference. You may now disconnect at this time. Good day.

Bye.