Jackson Financial Inc. Q3 FY2021 Earnings Call

We continue to balance financial strength, leverage, profitable growth, and capital return to shareholders for the long-term success of the company. Now let's look at the financial and operating highlights for the quarter. For the third quarter, adjusted operating earnings of $5.16 per share reflect the strong fee income from our growing variable annuity account balances. Retail Annuity fee income increased 24% compared to last year's third quarter. With over $240 billion in annuity assets, we benefit from a level of profitability and scale that supports our business growth plans and capital return targets. Third-quarter adjusted operating earnings reflected the natural market sensitivity and deferred acquisition costs, or DAC, amortization. As a reminder, market-related DAC volatility is expected to change with the adoption of the new GAAP accounting standard, which will be effective in the first quarter of 2023. At that time, DAC will no longer be expensed as a percentage of profits, and we would expect less volatility due to market changes. Jackson's return on equity continues to exceed 20% due to the quality of our in-force book. We expect our Retail Annuity segment to drive further profitability and growth as we benefit from an increasingly diverse set of products and features as well as our focus on expanding distribution. During the third quarter, we completed our term loan draw as planned and contributed over $1.5 billion to our operating companies, putting us within our target leverage range and above our target RBC ratio range. We believe our strong balance sheet and free cash flow position provide us with valuable capital flexibility. Our business executed our demerger successfully. For the third quarter, annuity sales were $4.8 billion. In October, we introduced the Jackson Market Link Pro product suite, our new Registered Index-Linked Annuity or RILA product. We received positive feedback from our advisers regarding this competitive, differentiated product as well as the enhanced digital experience provided with this product launch. Jackson Market Link Pro meets policyholders' demand for market participation, subject to a cap with protection on the downside. Our fee-based annuity business continues to grow, with third-quarter 2021 sales of $330 million, up 18% from the prior year, driven by sales of Elite Access Advisory II, our fee-based investment-only variable annuity. The RIA channel represents $5.7 trillion in assets with an expanding presence in the annuity market. We continue to focus on expanding distribution through independent RIAs and recently entered the defined contribution market as a provider within the lifetime income strategy offered by AllianceBernstein. Jackson is one of several insurance providers selected to offer a lifetime income solution for participants at the time of retirement. The defined contribution market represents significant opportunity, and we look forward to partnering with retirement plan sponsors looking to address both income protection and longevity risk for their plan participants. The AllianceBernstein relationship is part of our focused strategy to expand our commercial opportunities and meet market demand for protected retirement solutions. The total industry annuity sales for the first nine months of 2021 were the strongest year-to-date period since 2008, with every single annuity category up from the prior year. This provides a very strong backdrop for further growth in our Retail Annuity business going forward. Now I'll turn it over to Marcia to provide more details on our third-quarter financial results.

Thank you, Laura. Looking at our results on Slide 6. We continue to generate significant levels of adjusted operating earnings. As Laura just mentioned, our fee-focused business mix benefited from higher average separate account balances, driving higher fee income. However, this was more than offset by higher DAC amortization in the current quarter, resulting largely from lower separate account return compared to the prior year. As a reminder, we believe that Jackson has taken a conservative approach to the treatment of guarantee fees within our definition of adjusted operating earnings as all of the fees are moved below the line with no assumed profit on guaranteed benefits included in adjusted operating earnings. On a year-to-date basis, strong adjusted operating earnings combined with positive non-operating income resulted in a growing book value. Slide 7 outlines the notable items included in adjusted operating earnings for the third quarter, starting with the acceleration and/or deceleration of DAC. To provide a little more background, the amortization of DAC is a key item for our results given our annuity-focused balance sheet. And operating DAC amortization has several components. For clarity, our financial supplement reports DAC amortization split between core amortization, which is driven primarily by our pre-DAC gross profits for the period, as well as any market-related acceleration or deceleration of DAC, which results from the pattern of separate account returns over time. Additionally, we will break out the DAC impact from our annual assumption review, which will be provided in Q4. In the third quarter of 2021, there was an acceleration of DAC amortization, resulting in $63 million of additional DAC expense in the quarter. This was primarily due to slightly negative separate account returns in that period, which fell short of the assumed return. In the third quarter of 2020, there was a deceleration of DAC amortization, resulting in a pretax $125 million reduction in DAC expense, primarily due to a 7% separate account return in that period, which significantly exceeded the assumed return. As a result, the market-driven DAC effect was a net drag of $188 million on a pretax basis when comparing third quarter this year to the prior year third quarter. In terms of future DAC acceleration or deceleration for modeling purposes, we have provided additional details on the mechanics of the DAC amortization calculation within the appendix of this presentation, which aligns with our financial supplement. As Laura noted, this is expected to change with the adoption in the first quarter of 2023 of LDTI under GAAP accounting. We expect to be providing more information regarding LDTI impacts in the middle of next year. Additionally, we would note that both third quarters included strong limited partnership income, which is reported on a lag and can vary significantly from quarter to quarter. Limited partnership income in excess of long-term expectations was $98 million in the current quarter compared to $63 million in the prior year's quarter, creating a comparative pretax benefit of $35 million. We continue to see positive momentum and limited partnership performance, but do not expect Q4 to be as robust as Q3. Additionally, with respect to Q4, as we stand today, we expect our operating effective tax rate to be similar or slightly higher than the third quarter's 15%. Another important item to consider for the fourth quarter is the conversion of existing Prudential plc share-based awards over to Jackson Venture-based awards. In Q4, share-based awards will increase our diluted share count by 7.2 million shares, and will be partially offset by any shares that we repurchase over the fourth quarter. Slide 8 illustrates the reconciliation of third quarter 2021 pretax adjusted operating earnings of $571 million to pretax income attributable to Jackson Financial of $190 million. As shown in the table, the total guaranteed benefits and hedging results or net hedge result was negative $593 million in the third quarter. As we've noted, net income includes some changes in liability values under GAAP accounting that we consider to be noneconomic, and therefore, will not align with our hedging CapEx. We focus our hedging on the economics of the business as well as the statutory capital position and choose to accept the resulting GAAP below the line volatility. I would also note that while this was a loss in the current quarter, it was a small gain of $73 million for the year-to-date period. Starting from the left side of the waterfall chart, you see a robust guarantee fee stream of $728 million in the third quarter, providing significant resources to support the hedging of our guarantees. These fees are calculated based on the benefit base rather than the account value, which provides stability to the guarantee fee stream and protects our hedging budget when markets decline. As previously noted, all guarantee fees are presented in non-operating income to align with the hedging and liability movement. Net reserves and embedded derivative liabilities for guaranteed benefits are defined by both SOP-03-1, which calculates the insurance contract liabilities using longer-term assumptions. And by FAS 157, which calculates the embedded derivative liabilities using current market input. This quarter's loss is primarily the result of FAS 157 accounting for the increase in implied volatility over the third quarter. This implied volatility impact is an example of where our hedging approach and the GAAP treatment of liabilities are not aligned as we do not explicitly hedge implied volatility but rather focus on realized volatility under market shock. We included a slide in the appendix, which shows the key and macroeconomic drivers of the GAAP net hedging result and how changes in these macro items may lead to noneconomic gains or losses due to the lack of alignment between our hedging approach and GAAP accounting. Now let's switch gears and look at our segments, starting with Retail Annuities on Slide 9, where we see our healthy sales trend. We continue to have strong levels of retail sales driven this quarter by growth in variable annuities without lifetime living benefit. Sales of Elite Access, our investment-only variable annuity, increased to 71% from the prior year's quarter. And sales of other variable annuities without lifetime benefit guarantees were up 33%. While sales without lifetime benefits increased from 23% in the third quarter of last year to 33% in the third quarter of this year, we expect this percentage may vary through time based on market conditions and customer demand. Our total annuity market share highlights our consistent presence in the market, our strong distribution relationships, and disciplined approach to pricing and product design. We expect these attributes to be supportive of the recent launch of our RILA product. We view this as an important product launch, capturing the economic diversification benefit between a RILA and a traditional living benefit variable annuity as well as capital efficiencies through RILA account value growth alongside our large, healthy in-force traditional variable annuity block. Looking at pretax adjusted operating earnings on Slide 10. We are down from the prior year third quarter due to the market-driven DAC impacts I detailed earlier. Importantly, earnings were up from the prior year quarter outside of that impact. This was the result of higher separate account assets as the third quarter 2021 variable annuity ending account value was up over 20% from the third quarter 2020 ending account value, primarily due to strong return. As a reminder, we have investment freedom on our variable annuity product, allowing both policyholders and Jackson to more fully capture the benefits of rising equity market. While fixed annuity and fixed indexed annuity account values are minimal after accounting for the business we insured to Athene, they did grow during the period as well. Sales remained low, but the Blackheads' low surrender activity, given the business was recently issued, meaning sales largely contribute directly to positive net flows. We will have a similar dynamic on RILA sales going forward as we are starting from scratch following our October launch. This gives us multiple levers to grow and diversify our book going forward. Our other operating segments are shown on Slide 11. We suspended Institutional business for new sales starting in early 2020 as we began the separation process. And this has largely continued through the third quarter of 2021. This led to significant outflows as existing business has run off throughout the year, with account values declining from $12.3 billion a year ago to $8.8 billion as of the end of the third quarter. Now that we have completed our separation, we expect to return to the market with new issuances on an opportunistic basis. Our pretax adjusted operating earnings for the Institutional segment of $21 million during the third quarter of 2021 was down from $26 million in the third quarter last year due to the declining account value of the segment and lower reinvestment yields over time. Going forward, the earnings should largely track the account values. Lastly, our Closed Life and Annuity Blocks segment reported a slight increase in pretax adjusted operating earnings. This reflects the lower levels of benefits paid, partially offset by lower premium income. Absent future M&A activity, the earnings should trend downward as the business runs off over time. Slide 12 summarizes our robust capital position as of the end of the third quarter 2021. This strong position has given us the confidence to provide detail on the form and timing of our capital return. Given our strong cash generation, we are pleased that the Board authorized a dividend program, which shows our confidence in the level of cash return going forward. The fourth quarter cash dividend of $0.50 per share corresponds to a cash outlay of roughly $50 million for the quarter at our current share count, a healthy level of cash to shareholders. We also announced a $300 million share repurchase authorization, which we believe will allow us sufficient capacity in combination with the dividend to deliver our $325 million to $425 million cash return in the first 12 months after the demerger. The share repurchase authorization has the benefit of allowing us to be opportunistic in cash return given our current valuation. The number of shares to be repurchased and the timing of such transactions will depend upon a variety of factors, including market conditions. During the quarter, we completed the term loan draw and contributed the majority of the proceeds into our statutory operating company. The remainder was retained at the holding company, providing us with over $800 million of cash, well above our minimum liquidity target. It is also important to note that following the draw, our total GAAP leverage was at 23.5%, within our 20% to 25% target range. We expect to refinance the two term loan facilities by the end of the year. Following the capital contribution, Jackson National Life Insurance Company grew its total adjusted capital position to $6.8 billion, up from $4.4 billion as of the end of the prior quarter. Not only did the capital position benefit from the capital contribution, but also from meaningful in-force capital generation, continuing the trend from the second quarter. The estimated RBC at Jackson National Life as of this quarter was above 525%, up from the 500% to 525% pro forma RBC that we reported as of the prior quarter, continuing the growing RBC trend we've seen throughout 2021. This means that we are above our 500% to 525% adjusted RBC target, looking solely at the operating company, and without taking any credit for the current level of excess capital at the holding company. So in summary, it was a very successful quarter. We completed our term loan draw, provided further clarity on our current and future capital return program and have ample holding company liquidity. With our robust capital levels at the operating company, we are well positioned for the future.

Thank you, Marcia. We had a remarkable quarter when factoring in the successful completion of the demerger, the diversification of our distribution and product offering as well as positioning the company to deliver on our financial targets. As we work to meet the growing demand for the retirement savings and income market, we remain focused on supporting financial professionals, providing award-winning service to our customers, and delivering value to all of our stakeholders.

At this time, we'd like to open up our call for Q&A. Maxine, could you take our first question?

Our first question comes from Tom Gallagher from Evercore.

My first question is about the annual common dividend of around $200 million and the $300 million buyback, which totals $500 million. This amount exceeds your initial capital return guidance. I understand there are timing issues involved, but would you say that $500 million is a level you expect to sustain based on excess capital generation? Or does this figure account for any reduction in your current capital access?

Thanks for the question. I'll just make a general remark and then turn it over to Marcia to address the capital return outlook. But certainly, with the announcement, we wanted to provide a balanced return of capital that's rooted in the expected cash generation of the company. We recognize the value of both options for sure. But I'll turn it over to Marcia to get to the longer-term part of the question.

Sure. Thanks, Tom. You're right about how the numbers are being put together and the timing factors related to these returns. Our intention is to present a shareholder dividend that reflects our long-term perspective on the business and our capability to generate sustainable cash returns in the future. We view the $300 million share repurchase as a significant initiative, representing about 10% of our current market cap, which is considerable compared to industry standards. We believe this size is appropriate, considering the regulatory requirements and the timelines we've established. Ultimately, how this translates into future capital return will depend on future capital formation and market conditions. However, what we've proposed is a strong indication of our views on the types of capital generation we expect the business to deliver and aligns well with the robust performance we observed in the previous period before the demerger and during the COVID market conditions. Thus, we believe it reflects how the business has historically performed.

Okay. Would you say that the $300 million share repurchase is going to be the variable component and will rely more on market conditions? Or do you think that under most likely market scenarios, $300 million of buybacks would be sustainable based on your expectations for consistent cash flow generation in the future, above your targets for RBC and excess holdco cash?

It will definitely depend on the market. As Laura indicated, we aimed for a balanced strategy that includes both a dividend and a commitment to long-term growth, along with share repurchase activities. We expect to maintain a similar balance as we progress. However, we acknowledge that the share repurchase aspect is more opportunistic and influenced by market conditions. Nonetheless, it aligns with our perspective on the business's capital generation potential.

Got you. And then just one quick follow-up. The $600 million of statutory net income in the quarter. Would you say that's a decent run rate to think about if markets are benign like they were this quarter, where you don't have much in the way of derivative gains and losses? Or was there anything unusual that broke positive or negative when we think about what might be trendable in terms of statutory net income?

Yes, that's always a bit challenging because it relies heavily on the business position and the market conditions that unfold over time. However, in generally stable markets, I can't point to anything particularly notable or exceptional regarding the statutory capital generation during the past quarter in light of the market conditions we experienced.

Our next question comes from Ryan Krueger from KBW.

My first question is about the additional 7.2 million shares that will be added in the fourth quarter. Will these shares be included in the common share count or just in the diluted share count? I'm asking to understand how this affects the amount of dollars related to your dividend.

That will be coming into the diluted share count.

Got it, but not to common?

Right.

Okay. Can you discuss how your variable annuity lapse assumptions compared to the NAIC's full requirement in the standard projection? And then just any sense of how you've seen lapse rates trend over time?

Sure. First, regarding our variable annuity lapse assumptions reflected in our results, we have a substantial block of VA business, which provides us with a wealth of experience data to guide our assumption-setting process. The nature of these lapse assumptions is quite intricate and influenced by numerous factors, which is consistent with industry trends. The standard projection acts as a kind of benchmark in relation to a company's own assumptions. In general, when we assess the prescribed assumptions against our internal figures, we find that this does not lead to additional reserve or capital requirements, suggesting that we are compliant with the regulatory assumptions. Over time, there are many factors affecting the assumption framework, including market conditions and the age of our business blocks. Overall, our recent experience aligns with these factors. Additionally, in our financial supplement, we present an overall lapse or lapse/surrender withdrawal activity rate, which, while simplified compared to the full assumption structure, indicates that our recent quarter's experience is in line with what we observed a year ago.

Got it. And then just my last one was, given that the NAIC has some proposals to change their interest rate generator, can you give us some level of sensitivity that your RBC ratio would have to the longer-term statutory mean reversion rate that's currently embedded in the NAIC's model?

Sure. I guess I'd say, first, the potential scenario changes that may be coming, I think, are not well-defined yet. So that's something that we'll be watching as we move into 2022. I believe there'll be field testing in the early part of the year that we'll be able to participate in. That will give us a little bit more transparency, I guess, into the potential set of changes. But under today's scenario structure and requirement, there is, as you noted, that mean reversion parameters that automatically gets updated at the first of each year. So we are expecting for 2022 that, that parameter will reduce to 3% from 3.25%, where it is today. It has decreased in the current year to 3.25% from 3.5%, where it was in the prior year. And we had a modest impact to our RBC. When we made that change at the beginning of this year, we expect since the magnitude of the MRP reduction is similar, that will be a similarly manageable change for the RBC ratio as we move into 2022.

Was my understanding correct that the magnitude was about 20 to 25 points last time?

That's correct.

Our next question comes from Nigel Dally from Morgan Stanley.

Can you comment on where you stand with considering other actions to accelerate the pace of capital return, in particular, several companies have executed risk transfer transactions to free up capital on some of their older annuity blocks. Just wondering whether that's also an opportunity for Jackson that you're actively looking to pursue.

Yes, Nigel, we considered and executed on reinsurance transactions in the past. We would be open to transactions, if they were on terms that were beneficial to our shareholders and certainly, to the long-term profitability of the company. Marcia, I don't know if you would have any other remarks related to that topic.

Sure. Thanks for the question, Nigel. I guess when we look at our business, we have obviously the large VA block. We have already reinsured a significant component there of the fixed to fixed indexed annuity last year. And then we've got a look, Closed Life business that we have on the books as well. I guess thinking about the VA and the life components that we have. One of the things that we've thought about with respect to the VA block is just the fact that what we've typically seen in the market has on the in-force side been more focused on blocks that are less healthy and maybe come with large reserves or capital requirements that can be released over time. And we're really comfortable with the VA pricing and the position of our in-force book. So while as far as Laura said, we certainly be open to considering opportunities, we would really have to be compensated for what we think is the value of that business in a way that is doing the right thing for our shareholders. And then, I guess, with respect to the life block, that does provide us with diversification benefits that are valuable to us, both in terms of the source of earnings being mortality based. And in some parts of that block being spread-based as well. And it also provides diversification benefits within the capital requirement, statutory capital requirements. So we do see that block as valuable to us, and we note that, that diversification is viewed favorably by rating agencies. So here again, we'd certainly be open to transactions, but there is some significant value to us in that business. So that would have to be taken into account in the terms to make it favorable and in the best interest of the shareholders.

Great. And then just a follow-up on the buybacks. Can you also comment on the nature of those buybacks? Would they more likely be regular open market repurchases? Or would you also consider block transactions from some of your larger holders? You indicated the preference not to be long-term holders of the stock. I think the issue of overhang has been an issue which has come up time and time again with investors. So is the buyback program something which potentially could address that?

Yes. In general, we haven't limited ourselves to any precise method of repurchase in order to make sure we have the maximum amount of flexibility to execute.

Our next question comes from Erik Bass from Autonomous Research.

Can you discuss how you're planning to manage holding company liquidity going forward and your expectations for bringing dividends from your insurance subs up to the holdco over the next year?

Sure. Thank you, Erik, for that question. We currently have holding company cash exceeding $800 million, and we intend to maintain a minimum buffer of about twice our annual fixed expenses. Looking ahead, we recognize we have the ability to distribute dividends from our operating companies, which will be clarified as we progress through the year. We plan to pass cash up from the operating units as it is generated, ensuring liquidity at the holding company level. Additionally, we have other sources of available liquidity if necessary. With the liquidity at the holding company, we will prioritize it according to the financial strengths we've outlined, focusing on optimizing leverage, investing in new businesses at suitable margins, and distributing capital to shareholders.

Got it. That's helpful. I guess I was wondering, should we expect that in the near term, you're going to run with a sizable buffer similar to kind of where you are sitting today?

I think we would want to obviously maintain that roughly $250 million level of buffer or minimum. And then I think naturally, there might be some buffer above that, but I don't think we have anything we would disclose at this point in terms of specific plans of what that level would remain at.

Okay. And then I was hoping you could talk about your expectations for the new RILA product that you recently launched. And how quickly do you anticipate sales ramping there? And do you expect this to all be incremental to volumes? Or will there be some cannibalization of sales from other products?

Well, we're definitely excited about our RILA launch. We're in the market with a competitive product that we know has differentiated features. And as I indicated in the presentation early on, we've received good positive feedback from advisers. We haven't disclosed any sales projections, but we are recognizing that RILA has expanded the market overall. And with the demand that we see, we think there's lots of space for Jackson to enter this market and continue to meet that growing consumer demand.

Got it. And then last one, just hoping you could talk about the outlook for corporate expenses going forward. And presumably, you'll have higher interest expense starting in the fourth quarter. But are there also any other incremental higher costs relating to being an independent public company that aren't in kind of the run rate expense right now?

Yes. Sure. Chad, do you want to take that one?

Sure. I believe there are some factors to consider. We've incurred expenses related to the demerger, which have increased our costs. However, we will see a reduction in those expenses over time. On the other hand, we will have higher expenses due to the establishment of a holding company that we did not have previously. This will add low income expenses, interest expenses, and similar costs. Overall, we do not anticipate significant changes in corporate expenses, but they may trend slightly higher due to the interest expenses.

We have a follow-up question from Tom Gallagher from Evercore.

I would like to follow up on Nigel's question regarding risk transfer. I want to ensure that my understanding of your response is accurate. Are you currently looking into the risk transfer of variable annuities in life insurance? From your answers, it seems that you are not actively pursuing this at the moment. Is that an accurate assessment? I just wanted to clarify.

Yes. I think you've got that right, Tom.

Okay. And then just as we think about the actuarial review for next quarter, recognizing it's a process, you're not going to front-run it. Going into it, are there any assumptions we should be thinking about that may get revised, such as long-term separate account return assumptions that does appear to be a bit higher than some others in the industry or policyholder lapse experience? Anything kind of high-level you think might come under more review when you go through that?

Well, I guess I would say one thing to share is that our annual review process is generally one where we take a comprehensive look at everything and typically would make small adjustments if we see experience emerging in certain areas so that we avoid the likelihood of large changes from time to time because we're just kind of keeping up with the experience. And so that tends to result in potentially a few small adjustments here and there. And then depending upon what's emerging in the experience, we just take that into account. But I would say from the cycle that we're working through right now, we are still in the process and don't want to front-run anything in particular, but this is not a year that we've identified really notable items. This has been more of a typical process of sorting through the experience data, looking for a kind of new emerging experience that would inform any adjustments.

Okay. That's helpful. And one final one on that. Can you disclose what you're assuming for interest rates in your accounting in terms of a 10-year treasury mean reversion assumption, what that number is?

We have not disclosed that in the past. When considering our business, this type of assumption doesn't apply directly to most of it, especially within the VA segment. We have a long-term growth assumption for separate accounts there, which we do not connect directly to a 10-year treasury. For the rest of our business, where future interest rate assumptions influence benefit payment projections or gross profits, those factors are quite insignificant. We may utilize a simplified approach in how we establish these assumptions, which does not directly correspond to a specific 10-year treasury. However, this assumption is not material in our reserving methodologies due to our business mix.

This concludes the Q&A session. So I'll hand it back to Laura for closing remarks.

Great. Well, thank you for joining us on our call today. We look forward to speaking with you again in the future.

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.