Lamar Advertising Co/New Q1 FY2022 Earnings Call

Excuse me, everyone, we now have Sean Reilly and Jay Johnson on the conference. Please be aware that each of your lines is in a listen-only mode. At the conclusion of the company's presentation, we will open the floor for questions. In the course of this discussion, Lamar may make forward-looking statements regarding the company, including statements about its future financial performance, strategic goals, plans, and objectives, including with respect to the amount and timing of any distributions to stockholders and the impacts and effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the company's business, financial condition, and results of operations. All forward-looking statements involve risks, uncertainties, and contingencies, many of which are beyond Lamar’s control, that may cause actual results to differ materially from anticipated results. Lamar has identified important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed in this call in the company's first quarter 2022 earnings release and in its most recent annual report on Form 10-K. Lamar refers you to those documents. Lamar's first quarter 2022 earnings release, which contains information required by Regulation G regarding certain non-GAAP financial measures was furnished to the SEC on a Form 8-K this morning and is available on the Investors section of Lamar’s website www.lamar.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Sean Reilly. Mr. Reilly, you may begin.

Thanks, Bobby. Good morning all and welcome to Lamar’s Q1 2022 earnings call. The year is off to an excellent start. Our ability to reach audiences on-the-go with powerful messages at competitive rates is clearly resonating with advertisers. As a result, the trends we have seen since the rebound from COVID have included tightening inventory, better pricing, and a real appetite for our digital platform, and these trends have continued. Our first quarter revenues were ahead of expectations, with strength across nearly every top category and all geographies. Billboard revenues increased more than 17% on an acquisition adjusted basis, with our transit and airport businesses improving even more. While expense growth was elevated for the reasons noted in our fourth-quarter call, both our adjusted EBITDA and AFFO grew more than 25% in the quarter. Both adjusted EBITDA and AFFO per share were well ahead of pre-pandemic levels. Sales patience for the balance of the year are strong and we're not seeing any signs of a macro slowdown in our book. Given that, we are raising guidance for the full year AFFO per share to $7.20 to $7.35 and management will recommend a $0.10 per share increase in our distribution to $1.20 per share beginning in Q2. Categories of particular strength in the first quarter included service, retail, gaming, financial, and education. Importantly, amusement and entertainment is back to 80% of pre-pandemic levels and it appears we're going to have a strong year with political advertising as we are pacing well ahead of the same point in 2020. Occupancy across the analog platform has tightened further and we are driving rates as we said we would. Average daily rates on our analog panels were up mid to high single-digits versus the first quarter of 2020 and I'm confident that we will continue to drive rate as 2022 unfolds. The digital story, meanwhile, remains very powerful on a consolidated basis. Digital revenues were up nearly 28% year-over-year, with sales up more than 20% on the same-store basis. We added more than 90 digital units to the portfolio in the quarter through both conversions and acquisitions and we have more than 100 additional units on order today, most of which should be deployed before the fourth quarter. We intend to continue to build out our network aggressively. We remain active in the M&A market as well. As you saw this week we acquired Burkhart Advertising, the leading out-of-home platform in South Bend and the rest of Northeast Indiana. Burkhart is one of the oldest and most highly regarded companies in our industry and we were honored that the Miller family trusted Lamar to build on what they have established. With that deal, we have completed more than $200 million worth of transactions so far in 2022 and there's more in the pipeline. That said, we should exceed the over $300 million of transactions that we completed last year. All-in-all, we are executing at a very high level and I'm extremely excited about what's to come. With that, I'll turn it over to Jay, who will walk you through some more numbers.

Thanks, Sean. Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us. Once again, we are extremely pleased with our quarterly results, which exceeded internal expectations, as well as consensus estimates for revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and AFFO. The company achieved AFFO growth for the sixth consecutive quarter, improving 30.4% to $1.50 per share on a fully diluted basis versus Q1 2021. In the first quarter, acquisition adjusted revenue increased 18.6% from the same period last year. Q1 acquisition adjusted revenue as well as adjusted EBITDA both exceeded the first quarter of 2020, which was just prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and a record first quarter at the time. All of our regions experienced pro forma revenue growth in the mid to upper teens, with the exception of the West Coast, which grew by over 23%. Acquisition adjusted operating expenses increased 14.8% in the first quarter, driven primarily by variable expenses tied to revenue as well as corporate initiatives discussed on our last call. We anticipate expense growth will moderate as we progress through the year and decelerate each quarter sequentially as we compare against more normal operations not impacted by COVID. Despite expense increases, the company expanded margins by 130 basis points over Q1 2021, resulting in one of our strongest first quarters from a margin perspective. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 42.4% versus 41.1% in the first quarter of 2021 and 440 basis points ahead of the same period in 2019. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $191.2 million compared to $152.4 million in 2021, which was an increase of 25.5%. On an acquisition adjusted basis, the increase was 24.1%. Free cash flow in the quarter also improved, increasing 25.2% versus the same period last year. We experienced acceleration in both local and national business across our portfolio for the fourth consecutive quarter. Our local and regional revenue improved 20.2%, while the national business including programmatic increased 9.5%. Local and regional sales accounted for 80% of our billboard revenue in the first quarter, with growth outpacing the national and programmatic channel for the first time since Q1 of last year. On the capital expenditure front, total spend for the quarter was approximately $29 million, including $13 million of maintenance CapEx, and for the full year, we anticipate total CapEx of $170 million, with maintenance comprising $65 million. Volume in our acquisition pipeline accelerated in the second half of 2021 and has continued into 2022. During the quarter, we closed on $55 million of acquisitions and our pipeline is more robust than pre-COVID. We are optimistic that this year's activity will exceed 2021 and prove to be one of the most active in recent years. Given the strength of our balance sheet and lower cost of capital relative to our public peers as well as to private equity, we should remain extremely competitive on the M&A front. Furthermore, Lamar is in the process of converting to an UPREIT, an umbrella partnership real estate investment trust. An UPREIT is a common operating structure for publicly-traded REITs and should serve as an additional competitive advantage in the execution of our M&A strategy. UPREIT transactions can provide an attractive tax deferred exit strategy for owners with a low tax basis, who may recognize significant taxable gain in the sale of real estate. We anticipate this conversion will be complete by the end of the second quarter. Turning to our balance sheet, which is a critical focus for the company. We are quite pleased with the financial strength of Lamar and our balance sheet is well-positioned going forward. We have a well-laddered debt maturity schedule with no maturities until the AR securitization in July of 2024, followed by the revolving portion of our credit facility in February 2025, and we have no bond maturities until 2028. Net interest expenses totaled $26 million in the quarter, which is approximately $2 million lower than Q1 2021. Based on debt outstanding at quarter end, our weighted average interest rate was 3.3% with a weighted average debt maturity of 6.2 years. As of March 31st, approximately 65% of our debt was fixed rate. Since December 2019, we've increased our fixed to floating rate mix by 20 percentage points as we recapitalize the balance sheet to mitigate interest rate risk. We feel this is an adequate level of fixed versus floating in a sector highly correlated to changes in short-term rates. Once again, our balance sheet is well-positioned to perform through economic cycles. As defined under our credit facility, we ended the quarter with total leverage of 3.26 times net debt to EBITDA, which remains amongst the lowest in the history of the company. Our secured debt leverage was 0.89 times at quarter end and we're comfortable in compliance with both our total debt incurrence and secured debt maintenance test against covenants of seven times and 4.5 times respectively. At the end of the quarter, we had approximately $562 million in total liquidity comprised of $116 million of cash on hand and $446 million available under our revolver. As Sean mentioned and as indicated in this morning's release, we increased our AFFO guidance based on strong performance in the first quarter and the outlook for the remainder of the year. The revised AFFO guidance of $7.20 to $7.35 per share represents an increase of $0.17 at the midpoint compared to our guidance released in February. We anticipate the first and second quarters will be this year's strongest on a comparable basis. Now, moving to our dividend. We paid a cash dividend of $1.10 per share in the first quarter, which was a 10% increase from the fourth quarter regular dividend. Because of the company's improving AFFO outlook, management's recommendation at the upcoming Board meeting will be to declare a cash dividend of $1.20 per share for the second quarter. This recommendation is subject to board approval, and we will communicate the Board's decision following the Board of Directors meeting later this month. If the Board approves management's recommendation and assuming a $1.20 dividend for each of Q2, Q3, and Q4, Lamar's distribution for the full year will total $4.70 per share, which is 17.5% above the dividend paid in 2021 and represents a yield of 4.3% as of yesterday's closing stock price. Again, we are extremely pleased with this quarter's performance and are optimistic about the outlook for the remainder of 2022. Our balance sheet is strong, and we maintained excellent access to both the debt and equity capital markets. A strong balance sheet is core to our operating strategy and serves as a significant competitive advantage. With our intense focus on the company's capital structure, Lamar remains well-positioned to take advantage of opportunities as they arise. I will now turn the call back over to Sean.

Thanks, Jay. I'm going to hit on a few metrics that you're familiar with, mostly focusing on digital, rate, and our verticals. On the digital front, we closed out the quarter with 4,025 digital units, most of those organic but some acquired. Digital is approaching 30% of our book of business and it's growing rapidly, as I mentioned, 20.8% same-board performance, and 28% overall platform performance growth. We're going to continue to invest in digital and build that network out as fast as possible. Turning to rate, I quoted in my opening remarks that against 2020, Q1 was our best quarter until this quarter, and we're mid to high single-digits up on rates in our analog platform. If I compare it to last year, 2021, poster rates are up 15% and bulletin rates are up 9%. So, we're very encouraged by our ability to drive rate in the environment that we're in today. It's most instructive to compare against not 2021 Q1 but 2020 Q1 as a more normalized period. Again, mid to high single-digit rate increases across our analog platform. Looking at our verticals, strength is really across everything; services up 24%, healthcare up 14%, retail up 22%, gaming up 23%, automotive up 12%, and as I mentioned, amusement, entertainment, and sports continue to rebound to about 80% of Q1 2020 levels. Amusement, entertainment, and sports as a category was up 47% in Q1 over 2021. Financials up 30%, education up 30%, and for the first time since 2007, real estate popped into our top 10 and was up 20% over last year. It's worth noting that no single customer of Lamar represents over 1% of our book of business, so we are truly highly diversified across over 50,000 customers. With that, I'll open it up for questions.

Thank you. Our first question comes from Ben Swinburne with Morgan Stanley.

Good morning, Sean, good morning, Jay. You guys are well.

Hey, Ben.

A couple of questions. I'm sure it's not lost on you, Sean, you guys are a bit of an outlier, given how strong the business not only is but looks ahead. Meta is freezing hiring; just heard of a lot of areas of incremental softness like in the New York Times yesterday. Just wondering if you have any theories or what you're hearing from the field, because it seems like there's a market share pickup going on for you. And hopefully, it's not just a later recovery in terms of timing. But I'm just wondering if you have a sense of what's happening on the ground. In particular, mid to high single-digit rate growth? I mean, it's been a long time. Maybe, if ever, that I can remember that much rate growth. What's allowing you to push that through given that it's pressure on your clients' own P&Ls? And then just for Jay, why is M&A running so substantial? Are you guys paying more? Are sellers more motivated? Just curious why you guys are seemingly able to execute on more this year versus prior periods? Thank you.

Thanks, Ben. Yes, there is a share shift going on. You've heard me over the years talk about, particularly at the local level, what's going on with traditional local media as they struggle with their audience. You see eyeballs eroding for local network affiliate television, you see audience erosion for radio, and clearly, newspapers are struggling. So yes, we're getting that. That business is coming our way. I can't wrap data around what I'm about to say, but I think there's also something happening in the world of digital on the small screen. The Apple crackdown on privacy and data has shifted dollars around in the digital world and I think some of that is coming our way. And it doesn't take very much to move our world. When you think about issues around privacy and brand safety affecting how advertisers feel about some of their social mobile spend, we don't have those issues and thus I think some of that is coming our way. Additionally, on our digital platform, programmatic is providing real incremental demand. And we don't quote rate and occupancy when we discuss our digital platform, but we do talk about same-board yield, which shows a 20% increase. So yes, I think we've got secular tailwinds in terms of ad spend and market share coming our way. As an industry, the whole out-of-home sector is benefiting from this. If you look at our book, local demand is relatively stronger than national demand and I think that share shift is more prominent at the local level, which stands to reason. You cover some of those local media and what's going on there. Regarding rate, when I think about it, I refer back 15 years. The last time we saw this kind of rate increases was in the mid-2000s and we haven't been able to discuss rate since the Great Recession. We've been living in a 2% world without driving rate for a decade, and when we talk to our customers now, they expect it. They expect the ask, and we're asking for it. So it's a pent-up expectation based on over a decade, and we're going to benefit from it now that the expectation of inflation is everywhere.

Ben, on the acquisition front, I think there are a couple of things to note. If you look back to last year, coming out of 2020 while still in the pandemic, there was a lot of pent-up demand. Sellers who thought they might sell in 2020 pulled their deals, and quite frankly, our pipeline was pretty robust before COVID hit. Many of those deals came back last year. This year, we've seen that momentum continue; some of it is still spilling over. But I also think sellers are seeing how well the businesses have performed and their businesses are back, just as you see ours has, and they've decided to come to the market. In terms of Lamar's success, I think it's due to our track record. Our acquisition team does an excellent job. They are prudent in their underwriting, but they are also fair. Sellers who list with us know they will be treated fairly and that we're going to do our best to close quickly. I believe that current rising cost of capital will impact private equity and benefit us. As I mentioned in my comments, our conversion to an UPREIT will provide additional competitive advantages going forward. We're very pleased with how the acquisitions have unfolded this year and are optimistic about our acquisition front for the remainder of the year.

Thanks, guys.

Thanks, Ben.

Our next question comes from Richard Choe with JPMorgan.

I just wanted to follow up a little bit on the rate discussion. Do you think this is a kind of one-time catch-up? Or do you think you can continue to see faster rates going forward? And then two, are there any concerns right now about the vacation/driving season as oil prices or gas prices continue to go up? And then I have another one.

Yes. Richard, I think there’s some truth to the notion that there’s some catchup here, but I don't think it's a one-time occurrence. When I talk to REIT investors, they are used to far longer-term tenant contracts. Our average length of contract is four months, which allows us to have a rate discussion every four months. That said, I think there is some catch-up but I expect we can continue to have these rate discussions as long as we remain in this environment. Regarding the summer driving season, our forward pacing looks really good. When I look at June compared to May, July compared to June, and August compared to July, every month is getting better. So, if the driving season softens, we are certainly not seeing it.

Great. And then in terms of the digital platform, same-board was very strong and overall very strong. What kind of visibility are you seeing? And I know you've talked about it a little bit, but it seems like there’s a lot of demand that might give you a little more visibility than normal. Any color there would be great?

Sure. A couple of things to mention about our build-out this year: we are still seeing supply chain disruptions, resulting in longer lead times in securing digital boards for continued conversions. However, we still think we’re going to hit our goal of 300 by the end of the year. It’s going to be close, but we think we’ll get there. Again, it's mostly supply chain issues; it's certainly not demand that's the issue. Our digital sales cycle is the shortest, and we haven't seen longer-term contracts in terms of visibility. However, on our programmatic automated platform, we have DSP partners who have a good glimpse into their pipeline, and they are telling us it’s going to be a good year with a lot of demand. New advertisers are entering the out-of-home space; these are customers used to buying on mobile or social. They're moving our way and are experiencing good results with their investments in our big screens. While our visibility is not as crystal clear as on our analog platform, our programmatic partners feel confident about the rest of the year.

Great. Thank you.

And at this time, there are no further questions. I will now turn the call back over to Sean Reilly for closing remarks.

Well, great. Thanks all and thanks, Bobby. We look forward to speaking with you again next quarter.

Thank you for joining today's Lamar program. This does conclude our teleconference. You may now disconnect.