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Mettler Toledo International Inc/ Q3 FY2022 Earnings Call

Mettler Toledo International Inc/ (MTD)

Earnings Call FY2022 Q3 Call date: 2022-11-03 Concluded

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Operator

Good afternoon. My name is Audra, and I will be your conference operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to the Mettler-Toledo Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. This conference is being recorded. All lines have been muted to eliminate background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Now, I would like to turn the conference over to Adam Uhlman at Investor Relations. Please proceed.

Adam Uhlman Head of Investor Relations

Thanks, Audra, and good evening, everyone. I am Adam Uhlman. I am responsible for Investor Relations at Mettler-Toledo and I am happy to welcome you all to this call. I am joined with Patrick Kaltenbach, our CEO; and Shawn Vadala, our CFO; and Mary Finnegan. Let me cover some administrative matters. This call is being webcast and is available for replay on our website at mt.com. A copy of the press release and the presentation that we will refer to on today’s call is also available on our website. This call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the U.S. Securities Act of 1933 and the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934. These statements involve risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause our actual results, financial conditions, performance and achievements to be materially different from those expressed or implied by any forward-looking statements. For a discussion of these risks and uncertainties, see our recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly and current reports filed with the SEC. The company disclaims any obligation or undertaking to provide any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statement except as required by law. On today’s call we may use non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation to these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is provided in the 8-K and available on our website. Let me now turn the call over to Patrick.

Thanks, Adam, and good evening, everyone. We appreciate you joining our call. I am pleased to report another quarter of strong results as our sophisticated sales and marketing programs, our innovative product portfolio, and our supply chain agility continue to be strong competitive advantages. The highlights of our third-quarter performance are detailed on page three of the presentation. Local currency sales in the quarter increased 10% as compared to the prior year. We had particularly strong results in the Americas and China, and we saw very good growth in our Laboratory and Core Industrial businesses. Our robust sales growth and effective execution of our margin initiatives resulted in very good growth in adjusted operating profit and adjusted earnings growth despite significant foreign exchange headwinds. As we look towards the remainder of the year and into 2023, forecasting remains challenging and we acknowledge greater uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment. These uncertainties will require us to remain agile and focused on factors we can control, namely, leveraging our strong strategic programs to identify and target profitable growth opportunities. We continue to strengthen our market position and benefit from the strong execution of our growth initiatives, as well as favorable market trends such as automation and digitalization. Based on market conditions today, we believe we will generate good sales growth for the remainder of the year and in 2023. Continued execution of our margin and productivity initiatives will support strong financial results. Later I will have some additional comments on our business. But let me now turn it to Shawn to cover the financials and guidance. Shawn?

Thanks, Patrick, and good evening, everyone. Sales in the quarter were $985.08 million, which represented a local currency increase of 10%. On a U.S. dollar basis, sales increased 4% as currency reduced sales growth by 6%. We estimate that the impact of reduced sales in Russia due to the war was a headwind of about 1% to sales growth. On slide number four, we show sales growth by region. Local currency sales increased 11% in the Americas, 1% in Europe, and 15% in Asia/Rest of World. Local currency sales increased 15% in China in the quarter. Excluding Russia, our sales in Europe grew by 5%. On slide number five, we show sales growth by region on a year-to-date basis. Local currency sales grew by 11% for the first nine months, with 13% growth in the Americas, 5% growth in Europe, and 15% growth in Asia/Rest of the World. Local currency sales increased 15% in China on a year-to-date basis. Excluding Russia, our sales in Europe grew by 7% on a year-to-date basis. On slide number six, we summarized local currency sales growth by product area. For the quarter, Laboratory sales increased 10%, Industrial increased 10%, with Core Industrial up 13% and Product Inspection up 6%. Food Retail grew by 7% in the quarter. The next slide shows local currency sales growth by product area on a year-to-date basis. Laboratory sales increased 13%, Industrial increased 10%, including 12% growth in Core Industrial and Product Inspection up 7%. Food Retail declined 2% on a year-to-date basis. Let me now move to the rest of the P&L which is summarized on slide number eight. For the third quarter, gross margin was better than expected at 59.3%, an increase of 90 basis points. We benefited from favorable pricing and volume growth, which was offset in part by higher material costs. R&D amounted to $44.1 million in the quarter, which is a 10% increase in local currency over the prior period reflecting increased project activity. SG&A amounted to $233.4 million, a 3% increase in local currency over the prior year and includes increased sales and marketing investments. Adjusted operating profit amounted to $307.2 million in the quarter, a 13% increase. Currency reduced operating profit growth by approximately 6%. Adjusted operating margin was 31.2%, which represents an increase of 250 basis points over the prior year. A couple of final comments on the P&L. Amortization amounted to $16.7 million in the quarter, interest expense was $14.5 million in the quarter. Other income in the quarter amounted to $1.9 million, primarily reflecting non-service related pension income. Our effective tax rate was 19% in the quarter. This rate is before discrete items and adjusting for the timing of stock option exercises in the quarter. We expect to maintain this rate in Q4 and in 2023. Fully diluted shares amounted to 22.6 million in the quarter, which is a 3% decline from the prior year. Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $10.18, a 17% increase over the prior year or a 24% increase excluding unfavorable foreign currency. On a reported basis in the quarter, EPS was $9.76, as compared to $8.71 in the prior year. Reported EPS includes $0.22 of purchased intangible amortization, $0.07 of restructuring, and a $0.13 headwind due to the difference between our quarterly and annual tax rate due to the timing of stock option exercises. We are very happy with our year-to-date results, which are summarized on the next slide. Local currency sales grew by 11% for the nine-month period, adjusted operating income increased by 13% or 17% excluding unfavorable foreign currency, and our operating margin expanded by 150 basis points. Adjusted EPS grew by 17% on a year-to-date basis or 22% excluding unfavorable currency. That covers the P&L. Now let me cover cash flow. In the quarter, adjusted free cash flow amounted to $224.7 million. DSO was flat compared to prior year levels at 35 days, while ITO was 3.7 times. Let me now turn to guidance and begin with some overall considerations for our guidance for the remainder of this year and next year. First, forecasting remains very challenging. There is greater uncertainty in the macro environment, including the impacts of the global economy from higher interest rates, the war in Ukraine, and China’s zero COVID policies. We recognize the importance of being agile and able to react quickly if market conditions change. We are basing our guidance for Q4 in 2023 assuming market conditions remain as they are today. Second, we feel very good about our business. In particular, we believe we have strategies in place to identify and pursue growth opportunities and we have an innovative product portfolio that supports these growth initiatives. We also continue to benefit from a more favorable business mix, as well as global market trends in automation, digitalization, and investments in on and nearshoring. We also believe we will continue to execute well on our margin initiatives. Third, supply chain challenges remain but are improving. Our team has done an outstanding job of overcoming the various dynamics of the supply chain over the last three years. We believe our ability to continue to meet customer demands is a competitive advantage, but acknowledge risks remain in the global supply chain. Finally, we have significantly greater headwinds with respect to currency as compared to the last time we spoke. In particular, as I know you are all aware, currency has moved dramatically since early September, creating significant headwinds for Q4 and for 2023. I thought it would be helpful to provide this guidance overview, and now let me cover the specifics. For the full year 2022, we now expect local currency sales growth to be approximately 10%. This compares to our previous guidance of 9% to 10%. We expect full year adjusted EPS to be in the range of $38.95 to $39.05, which represents a growth rate of about 15%. The midpoint of our adjusted EPS guidance is slightly higher than our previous guidance as stronger than expected Q3 performance has been largely offset by greater currency headwinds in the fourth quarter. Specifically, we expect currency to be a headwind to adjusted EPS growth in the fourth quarter of approximately 10% and 6% for the full year. At the time of our last earnings call, we had expected currency to be a headwind to fourth quarter adjusted EPS growth of approximately 6% and 4.5% for the full year. With respect to the fourth quarter, we would expect local currency sales growth to be approximately 7% and adjusted EPS to be in the range of $11.55 to $11.65. This represents a growth rate of 10% to 11%, and as I just mentioned, includes a currency headwind of approximately 10%. For the full year 2023, based on our assessment of market conditions today, we would expect local currency sales growth to be approximately 5% and adjusted EPS to be in a range of $42 to $42.40, which represents a growth rate of 8% to 9%. This includes an estimated currency headwind of approximately 4.5%. Some further comments on our 2023 guidance. We expect interest expense to be approximately $73 million, total amortization, including purchased intangible amortization to be $71 million, purchased intangible amortization is excluded from adjusted EPS and is estimated at $24 million on a pre-tax basis or $0.83 per share. Other income, which is below operating profit and reflects non-service pension income, is forecast to be approximately $12 million. We expect our tax rate before discrete items will be 19% for both 2022 and 2023. Now, let’s turn to cash flow. For 2022, we now expect full year free cash flow in the range of $780 million, which is below our previous guidance. While our supply chain team has done an exemplary job in overcoming challenges in meeting customer demand, it has required us to hold higher inventory levels than we had expected. We believe it has been necessary given the challenges in the global supply chain and expect we will return to more normal levels in 2023. I also want to remind you that our free cash flow in both 2020 and 2021 was excellent, exceeding 25% growth on a per share basis in each year. For 2023, we expect free cash flow in the range of $900 million, which represents a growth rate of 19% on a per share basis and a conversion rate of 97% of net income. We would expect to repurchase approximately $1 billion of shares in 2023, which would allow us to maintain a net-debt to EBITDA ratio of approximately 1.5 times. As we have done in the past, we will aim to repurchase our shares evenly throughout the year. We have also announced today that our Board has authorized an additional $2.5 billion to the share repurchase program to be utilized over the next few years, which is in addition to the $2 billion remaining on our previous year repurchase authorization. Lastly, with respect to the impact of currency on sales growth, we expect currency to reduce our sales growth by 5.5% in 2022, including an 8.5% sales growth headwind in Q4. At today’s foreign exchange rates, currency would reduce our sales growth by an additional 4% for the full year 2023. That is it from my side, and now I will turn it back to Patrick.

Thanks, Shawn. Shawn and I recently completed our annual global budget tour, meeting with our colleagues around the world for in-depth reviews of strategic frameworks and key initiatives of our operating units. Those of you that have followed us closely know this is an important element of our annual planning process as it allows us to spend considerable time with our colleagues to discuss and analyze the opportunities across our diverse business. Although uncertainty exists in the outlook for the global economy over the next year, I feel very good about the underlying strategies we have in place and believe we are well-positioned to enhance our market position going forward. We are quite confident that we can continue to gain share and generate good earnings in 2022 and 2023. Let me share with you some comments on our operating results, as well as more details on our outlook for 2023. Starting with the Lab business. I am very pleased with the strong sales growth we have delivered this quarter and year-to-date, and we saw good results across most of our portfolio. We expect good sales performance to continue in the fourth quarter and next year. As we think about our Lab business over the medium-term, we expect investments by pharma and biopharma into new drug modalities will provide great opportunities for us to support them with our solutions. The trend of digitalization in Labs has also accelerated and our solutions help customers realize productivity gains and address growing compliance and data validation requirements. We will also look to tap the significant growth occurring in hot segments like lithium-ion batteries, semiconductors, green hydrogen, and sustainable polymers to name a few. We leverage a highly agile approach to capture growth in these segments, applying a systematic voice of the customer approach on a segment and application level to identify attractive opportunities and ensure we have the correct strategies, product roadmaps, and marketing efforts in place to take advantage of them. Switching now to the Industrial business. Core Industrial had very strong results in the third quarter and year-to-date. There is good demand particularly for our automation solutions as our customers look to improve productivity and increase yields. We have also seen good interest from pharma and biopharma customers as they utilize our solutions to efficiently bring new drugs to production. Like our Laboratory business, hot segments are important for our Core Industrial business as well, and we have seen very strong activity from customers serving the lithium-ion battery industry in China, Europe, and the Americas. While we are seeing good demand to date in Core Industrial, and our business has shifted over the years to more resilient industries, our business is not immune to changes in the economy. High energy costs and softer economic activity may weigh on our customers in Europe and particularly in the chemical sector. Nevertheless, we expect to deliver solid growth in our Core Industrial business in the fourth quarter and next year. Over the long-term, labor shortages and the trend of nearshoring and reshoring to establish more resilient supply chains are expected to benefit our Core Industrial business over the coming years. Additionally, new product development has been critical to our success in meeting customer needs for automation solutions, and we provide equipment that is very easy to integrate into customers' control systems and also meets the most stringent data integrity and cybersecurity requirements. We are also optimistic about our product portfolio and exciting innovations we have brought to market and new products to come. For example, in addition to the strong growth we have seen before contact automation offering, our new line of hygienic bench and floor scales positions us well to win the pharma and food customers in the coming years. Turning now to the Product Inspection business, we had good growth with strong demand in the Americas, which was offset in part by more cautious investment activity in Europe. Some of our packaged fruit manufacturing customers face a more challenging operating environment and are focused on mitigating margin pressures from inflation and supply chain disruptions. However, we would still expect overall growth in the fourth quarter and into 2023. While the pandemic, high input costs, and the war in Ukraine have resulted in lower relative sales growth for Product Inspection in the recent years, we remain convinced that the long-term growth dynamics remain strong. We are not standing still and continue to seek out pockets of growth including check weighing in the industry, pharma, and confectionery customers, and we have expanded our mid-range or our mid-market coverage with new product offerings in X-ray and metal detection. I’d also want to remind you that service is very important to our Product Inspection customers and we have new initiatives underway to support our customers' uptime, while at the same time improving our service technician productivity. These include augmented reality for remote customer support and advanced remote diagnostics to identify and recommend quick repairs to keep our food manufacturing customers up and running. Lastly, our Food Retail business delivered strong results in the third quarter, with strength in the Americas offset by weakness in China due to the pandemic-related lockdowns. Our team has built good momentum recently and has an attractive product pipeline for 2023, and we are optimistic that we can generate profitable growth over the next year. Let me make some comments by geography. We had very good performance in the Americas, again strong growth in last year’s third quarter with strong growth across Product Inspection, Core Industrial, and Retail. We have a favorable outlook for the remainder of the year and in 2023. Switching to Europe, our sales grew about 5% excluding the impact of Russia. The war in Ukraine has led to sharply higher energy costs across the region and has weighed on some of our customers' investment appetite, particularly packaged food manufacturers and some chemical customers. We still see good investment levels from other customer segments, including biopharma and firms involved in the development and production of electric vehicles. We expect moderate growth in Q4 and next year. Finally, for Asia and the Rest of the World, they had very strong growth in the third quarter as our team successfully navigated challenging operating conditions with the pandemic and COVID-19 lockdowns and also executed very well on our strategic initiatives. Going forward, we look to continue to optimize our sales force guidance activities in China to pursue attractive opportunities, and we will also increase our focus on leveraging digital approaches to generate customer leads. Our Lab and Industrial business have performed very well this year, which we expect to persist for the rest of the year and in 2023. We remain optimistic about several key long-term market drivers in China, including the continued development of pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, electric vehicles, microelectronics, and new material industries. We are very well-positioned to take advantage of these growth opportunities and have continued to invest in our sales and marketing efforts to support our growth in China. While we remain optimistic about the long-term, we acknowledge days and uncertainty in the short-term, and we know from the past that economic conditions can change very quickly in China requiring us to remain agile. So that is a summary of our outlook for the fourth quarter and next year. As you think about our longer-term years, we very strongly believe that favorable market dynamics, our growth initiatives, and our improved business mix is supportive of our long-term growth algorithm of 6% plus local currency sales growth and mid-teens earnings growth. This will be accomplished by gaining additional market share through strong execution of Spinnaker, which includes optimizing our sales force guidance and cross-selling initiatives, increasing customer engagement with digital tools, and selling services at the point of sale. Our team will continue to pursue the most attractive, fast-growing, and resilient market segments. We will also continue to invest in new product innovations that will be the foundation of future growth, and I would note that our portfolio and go-to-market approach is uniquely positioned to deliver on customer requirements for automation and digitalization. Our strategies and initiatives are well-developed and well ingrained throughout the organization, and we will continue to be critical in gaining market share and driving sales and operating margin growth. That concludes our prepared remarks, and I now want to open the call for questions.

Operator

Thank you. We will take our first question from Derik De Bruin of Bank of America.

Speaker 4

Hi. Thank you. This is Peter on for Derik. Just real quick. Could you guys just maybe walk through your assumptions by segment for the fourth quarter and next year as well, and also by geography, too?

Yeah. Hey, Peter. This is Shawn. I will take that one. So, let me start with our Lab business. So for the fourth quarter, we estimate high single-digit growth in Q4, which would be low double-digit growth for the full year and mid-to-high single-digit growth for 2023. For our Core Industrial business, we estimate mid single-digit growth for Q4, which would be approximately 10% growth for the full year and low-to-mid single-digit growth for 2023. For Product Inspection, we estimate low single-digit growth for Q4, which would approximate mid single-digit growth for the full year and low-to-mid single-digit growth for 2023. And for Food Retailing, we estimate approximately 10% growth in Q4, which would be about low single-digit growth for the full year and mid single-digit growth for 2023. And then, if I kind of go through that by region, in the Americas we estimate high single-digit growth in Q4, which would be low double-digit growth for the full year and mid single-digit growth for next year. For Europe, we are estimating low-to-mid single-digit growth in Q4, which would be mid single-digit growth for the full year and low single-digit growth for 2023, and then for China we are estimating approximately 10% growth in Q4, which would translate to double-digit growth for the full year and we estimate high single-digit growth in 2023.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thank you. And could you guys give us an update on pricing? I guess, maybe comment on what you did on the third quarter and updated expectations for 2022 and what’s embedded for 2023?

Yeah. Yeah. So we were very pleased with our execution of the organization in the quarter and we also continue to see how our value proposition is really valued in this environment, especially as customers seek more solutions towards automation and digitalization. At the beginning of the quarter, we were estimating about 5% price realization for Q3 and we actually came in at in the 6% kind of range. As we kind of look forward, so we did better than expected. As we kind of look at Q4, we are kind of expecting a similar price realization again in the 6% kind of range. And then as we look at 2023, we are estimating about something in the 4% kind of range. But I would say it’s important to think that we will do a little bit better in the first half of the year because we will get some benefits from some of our pricing actions that happened during 2022 then in the second half of the year.

Speaker 4

Super helpful. Thank you so much.

Thank you.

Welcome.

Speaker 5

Hey. Thanks for taking my questions. Shawn, I appreciate your talking through the segment and geo assumptions. I guess though at a high level, I am assuming the 5% is more of a base, just given where we are to start the year, how much variance do you think there is to that 5% number? I mean, given you expect 4% price next year, I guess, only a point of volume, it seems like that’s fairly conservative?

I believe we are performing well and feel confident about the aspects we can manage. Our teams are doing a great job, and we appear to be increasing our market share. There are positive trends such as automation, digitalization, and onshoring that we often discuss. However, there is also some uncertainty in the world. Importantly, we are coming off a period of strong multiyear comparisons. Our three-year compounded annual growth rate has been about 9% organically, which is something to consider. Overall, we believe this is a solid forecast at this time. We will see how things develop throughout the year and will provide updates along the way. Nevertheless, our planning process remains unchanged from the past.

Speaker 5

Got it. And then, Patrick, for the first time in a while, I didn’t hear you talk about LabX. I wonder if you could provide an update there. We hear it come up in the research quite often but, wondered if you could talk through maybe the opportunities you see forthcoming and maybe talk around metrics that you kind of gauge against internally?

Thank you for the question, Josh. We are very pleased with the rollout of LabX to more customers globally. LabX is our instrument control software for most of our Lab products. It showcases entire workflows and assists our customers with compliance and data integrity. This is a significant selling point for pharmaceutical and laboratory clients who face stringent compliance demands. As we connect more lab instruments through LabX, it enhances our competitive edge and positions our products well in the lab market. We are actively expanding its use among key accounts and are seeing strong success in the indoor lab sector. Our objective is to have most of our instruments integrated with LabX, providing customers with a comprehensive solution for data storage and workflow management. This presents a compelling advantage for us compared to competitors lacking a similar offering. I'm very satisfied with our progress and we will continue to add features and connect more instruments in the future.

Speaker 5

All right. Appreciate it guys.

Yeah. Thanks.

Speaker 6

Hey. This is Jordan on for Vijay. Thanks for taking my question. I was wondering if you could talk about your margin assumptions for the remainder of the year and kind of what you are assuming as we go into fiscal year 2023.

Yeah. Hey. I will take that, Jordan. So, like I said before, we were very pleased with our performance with pricing in Q3 and I have already provided guidance for Q4 and for next year. I think that’s certainly a key lever in our margin assumption. If you kind of look at Q3, we expanded our gross margin by 90 basis points. As we kind of look to Q4, we are looking at about 150 basis points of gross margin expansion. We are looking at a similar amount in 2023 of about 150 basis points, and then if you kind of drop down to operating margin, we expanded our margin by about 250 basis points in Q3, as we kind of look to Q4 we’re going to be just under 300 basis points, probably about 290 basis points. As we look at next year, we are looking at about 160 basis points. And a key ingredient will be our price realization as we go forward as we kind of look towards Q4, we still will see some elevated headwinds in terms of inflation on material costs, but maybe to a slightly lesser degree than what we saw in Q3.

Speaker 7

Great. And time for one quick follow-up. I was wondering if you could talk about what you are seeing across geographies and I know you touched upon it in your opening remarks. But maybe can you talk about what you are seeing from an order perspective in Europe, kind of some factors that you have seen in the quarter and your expectations moving forward?

In terms of orders, we usually have about a month and a half of backlog, so we don’t typically comment on orders or backlog. However, we take that into account when providing guidance for the fourth quarter and the next year. Regarding Europe, I can't add much to what Patrick mentioned, but we have noticed some slowdown in the packaged foods sector, particularly affecting our Product Inspection business. Companies are postponing capital expenditures in that area, which is part of our Product Inspection segment. While most of our sales are below $10,000, Product Inspection is priced higher. Looking at the energy crisis, we continue to receive positive feedback from our organization, but we are also aware of the broader situation and the potential effects on industries such as the chemical sector.

Speaker 7

Great. Thank you.

Speaker 8

Great. Thanks. First question, I wanted to touch on China here. So, previously you were expecting about 10% in the quarter delivered 15%. And I think previously you were talking about low double-digit for the year and I think today you said double digits. So just curious, what’s been going on there, what drove the upside in the quarter and how exactly has your outlook for the year changed, I guess?

Yeah. Look, this is Patrick. We are very pleased with our results in China. As you said, we are 15% in the quarter and we also have forecast double-digit growth for the fourth-quarter. So we are really happy how China is supporting for us. We have a very strong organization there and it’s really performing extremely well. We have not been affected big time by the corporate lockdowns, our manufacturing sites continue to manufacture, and restrictions, but they have been operational. We see our sales team, as we said in the remarks, also really fully leveraging the Spinnaker tools to really reach out to customers and capture the fast-growing segments in China, as well as a lot of momentum behind for some electrical vehicles, battery segment, and the lithium-ion segment, but we are also seeing still very good growth in pharma and biopharma in China. So we are actually we have continued to be very pleasantly surprised by the performance, again, we have been optimistic for Q3. It totally came in as expected or even better and our outlook for China is still positive long-term, of course, so anyway positive. Short-term, there are always risks in China, of course, as we all acknowledge that can be short-term lockdown impacts or others, but I think you should look at China from a long-term growth perspective. It’s very promising. I think we will continue to see growth. We have an organization that is very strong both on the sales and marketing side, but also don’t forget we have manufacturing and R&D there as well. And from that perspective, I think we have a really good understanding about what drives market momentum in China and can also quickly adopt to fast-growing segments and capture those.

Speaker 8

All right. That’s very helpful. And a bit of a two-parter here on margins. First, on kind of price cost and inflation, and then the second is going to be on the FX impact. So on the price cost just thank you for the outlook on that kind of four points of pricing next year, but should inflation come in higher or lower then we currently forecast that are currently embedded in the outlook. How should we be thinking about that impact to the margin? Is it pretty much expected to be consistent, if inflation comes in higher upside lower downside or general thoughts? And then on the FX side of things. FX impact the topline and the operating income line seem to be similar in the quarter and on the outlook, I think that’s consistent as well. So is that the best rule of thumb we can use kind of like-for-like impact on FX to the topline and to the bottom line?

Thank you for your questions, Tim. Let me address the second question first. The best way to understand the relationship between sales and EPS is to consider our major exposures. Our largest exposure is the U.S. dollar to the renminbi. For every 1% change in the renminbi in relation to the U.S. dollar, our operating profit would be affected by approximately $3.5 million to $4 million. The second largest exposure is between the Swiss franc and the euro. We are long in euros but short in francs, which creates a natural hedge within the company. As the cross rate changes, a 1% change would impact our operating profit by about $2 million. These are the two main factors influencing our earnings. Regarding the first question about price costs, I will address that next.

Speaker 8

Yeah.

If the certainly in terms of price cost, I mean, I think you saw that we were able to respond very well to inflationary headwinds in 2022. Of course, it can take a quarter or two for us to be able to actually get the actions into the market. But if we were confronted with a similar situation next year, I think, we would react exactly the same way and I think that the market understands inflation, our organization was able to do a great job articulating and explaining that to the market. And then, I think most importantly, we are providing really strong value propositions to the market that they appreciate, and the ability to support them and provide these value propositions is highly appreciated and also supports our price realization going forward.

Speaker 8

Great. Thank you so much.

Yeah. Thank you.

Speaker 9

Good evening, everyone. Thank you for joining us. To begin, I wanted to delve a bit into the discussions around the supply chain and the challenges you've managed, as well as the expected cadence moving forward. Could you clarify your thoughts on the electrical components you've mentioned before, particularly regarding their improvement? How should we view this in terms of the balance of 2023, especially concerning its impact on margins and the guidance you're anticipating?

There are many factors influencing our gross margin assumption across different material categories. Next year, we anticipate some benefits from electronic components, but there are also categories where we've had to make purchases months in advance, which will result in additional costs next year. Overall, we expect a 150-basis-point improvement in our gross margin, with about 170 basis points coming from our pricing assumptions, offset by various other categories affected by inflation. For material cost assumptions next year, we are planning for something more modest, likely in the low single-digit range.

Speaker 9

Okay. Great. And I know PendoTECH is at this point part of the organic number, but it would be great to kind of just trying to get a contextual update on performance in the quarter and how the company is maybe performing relative to kind of your expectations?

Yeah. Absolutely. I will take that, look, we are very happy with how PendoTECH is performing. It has been probably one of the best acquisitions in terms of overall growth, may not in total volume, but overall growth. It’s really exceeding our expectations. We are very happy we are still seeing strong demand from our end customers. And we continue to build out the organization. We started, as you know, mainly as pressure sensors, in the future we look into additional single-use sensors as well. It’s now in the meantime really well-connected and ingrained in the overall product process business. So we are very optimistic on the outlook for the business moving forward.

Speaker 9

Great. Thanks so much.

Thanks.

Speaker 10

Hi. This is Lucy on for Patrick. Thanks for taking my question. I was wondering if you could delve a little bit into what you are seeing in Europe, you said that maybe there sort of weakness on Product Inspection. Was that a particular countries, is that the entire region just, any more color there would be helpful? Thank you and I have one more.

Yeah. Thank you. I will take the question. Look, in Europe and Product Inspection, a lot of them are large international, multinational companies and what we are seeing is that they are not canceling projects, but they are delaying projects. I think overall, they have become a bit more cautious with the projects and how they are spending their money at least in this quarter, and probably, also in Q4, so they are postponing projects, and they have, I would say, better line-of-sight of how things develop in Europe. It’s not specific to any particular country in Europe. So, I would say you can see just from most are from several customers but it’s not linked to one country overall.

Speaker 10

Great. Thank you. And then, in terms of the Investor Day coming up, anything around the share what we can expect for that, I am not that gloomy? Thanks.

I think you will receive an update on our business and various initiatives. We will guide you through that and discuss some exciting opportunities to enhance our margins through supply chain and pricing. The Investor Day will take place here in Massachusetts at our Process Analytics business, where we will highlight this business in greater detail and demonstrate how we support the value stream of a typical biopharma customer.

Speaker 10

Great. Thank you.

Speaker 11

Hey. Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe the first question Patrick or Shawn, just as you look into 2023, there’s obviously risks out there whether it’s inflation or supply chain or Europe weakness and I am sure you have baked them into the guidance you have presented. If one of those were to improve, meaning not become a risk, is there a certain one of those three or others that could really change kind of the dynamic of, one, how you think about the progression of the year, but also the dynamics of the business and the growth in certain areas?

Let’s see.

I can take this. Look, I mean...

We are flipping a coin. As we have seen, there are still multiple ongoing risks not just in Europe and China, including potential continued lockdowns due to COVID-19, but it's unclear how that will develop further. Regarding Europe, the war and the related energy crisis highlight significant uncertainty in the outlook for 2023. If these issues were to be resolved, we would likely see positive adjustments to our current projections. However, there's no short-term resolution in sight, and it's also uncertain how substantial the impacts will be and how many of our chemical customers will be affected.

Yeah.

Speaker 11

Got it. Thanks for indulging me in that question, I appreciate the color. And just a second question a quick follow-up. As you look at Food Retail, it’s obviously a smaller part of your business. It’s been fairly volatile and I think comps are obviously impacting that. As you look that mid single-digit growth for next year, should we expect a decrease maybe in the volatility of revenue for that business, are there things that you have done there to better manage that or help to manage that or is that mid-single digits sort of an average of the volatility that we might see continue into 2023?

It’s a smaller part of our business, making up about 5% of the total. We have seen some successful projects recently and are looking to launch an upgraded portfolio of products, which gives us optimism. However, we don’t anticipate any short-term changes due to market volatility. In China, we are currently dealing with challenges from lockdowns that impact many retail customers, and it’s unclear how long this situation will last. If conditions improve, we may see some benefits. Nonetheless, I don’t expect significant changes in 2023. Our strong portfolio and the number of recent project wins bolster our confidence.

Speaker 11

Great. Thank you very much.

Speaker 10

Hi. This is Neil on for Rachel and thanks for taking the question. First, could you give us some color and/or some additional color on inventory, last quarter you had updated us on customer inventory levels, knowing it had come down a bit on pipette tips after customers have stockpiled during the heights of the pandemic. You talk today a bit about how your inventory levels in relation to free cash flow had changed, so could you provide us some more color here on both customer inventories like how are they looking at it was the same by product and then kind of some of the key products there like and have you noticed any material change here in your inventory levels?

I’ll start by discussing our internal perspective. We are very pleased with our global supply chain organization, which has done an exceptional job supporting customers over the past few years during the pandemic. This has provided us with a competitive advantage. Patrick and I just returned from a trip around the world where we heard numerous stories about our delivery times. While they may be somewhat longer than before, they are significantly better than those of our competitors. This has allowed us to gain market share in various instances, and we feel positive about that. However, we have maintained higher inventory levels and safety stocks in different categories to ensure we could continue delivering effectively. We have around 130,000 SKUs, which adds complexity, but Blue Ocean has enhanced our supply chain visibility, enabling us to manage that complexity and adjust safety stocks as needed. As we look to 2023, with shipping times from China to the U.S. significantly improving recently, we believe we are positioned to reduce our inventory levels in 2023, which is reflected in our outlook and guidance. From a customer perspective, we've heard some feedback regarding pipette tips, although it's difficult to quantify its exact impact on our business. Overall, we are satisfied with our pipette tips segment, and instrument sales continue to grow well, driven by strong demand in biopharma research. However, we did see a decline in consumables in the third quarter, but this has not significantly impacted our overall business.

I would say it’s not significant because we didn’t cater primarily to COVID testing labs. Right now, most of our customers have been biopharma research labs, which didn’t overstock to the same extent as many testing customers did.

Speaker 10

That’s very helpful. I have one more question regarding the earlier mention of potential government stimulus in various regions, especially in China, which could be beneficial for that area. Have you seen any updates on that? Thank you.

Do you want to take.

Yeah. I can take. No. We are actually good question, but no, we have not heard any significant impact or changes driven by any government initiatives at the moment.

Speaker 10

Awesome. Thanks.

Operator

That does conclude the question-and-answer session and concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.