Operator
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the New Tech One, Inc. third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star 11 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Barry Sloan, President and Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Operator, and welcome participants to our Q3 2025 Financial Results Conference Call. I'm Barry Sloan, President, Founder, and CEO of New Tech One and New Tech Bank National Association. Joining me on today's call is Frank DiMaria, Chief Financial Officer of NewTekOne, the publicly traded holding company, stock symbol NEWT on the NASDAQ, and Scott Price, our Chief Financial Officer of NewTek Bank National Association. We certainly appreciate everybody attending the call today and the investment that you've made in analyzing and evaluating NewTek as an investment opportunity. We'd like everybody to try to focus today, in addition to the great financial numbers that we put out, really look at the investment in New Tech One from a business perspective, how we raise deposits, how we make loans, how we're able to do this with low expense ratios in the marketplace, and really create what we believe is a business model for the future for a technology-enabled bank. Once again, focusing on technology and efficiency in a market that we clearly see is rapidly changing. Obviously, the focus on credit quality is important. I think we'll be able to demonstrate that our credits have stabilized both within the bank and at the holding company through the NSPF results. We have a slide to demonstrate that. And we're also going to be able to focus on raising deposits below the risk-free rate, which we also think there'll be future benefits based upon how we have ourselves situated in the new tech advantage by performing payroll for our customers, merchant services for our customers, connected with a bank account, which we actually think is rare and unique in the marketplace today. In addition to that, as you can see from the press release we just put out, we have some outstanding numbers for return on average assets, return on tangible common equity, efficiency ratio. And also, we're excited about approaching our three-year anniversary as a bank holding company owning a nationally chartered bank. And we're very pleased that we have been able to demonstrate our ability to manage the bank, manage risk, and hit all of our strategic goals and objectives, importantly, according to plan. Investors that focus on what we're doing in marketplace we believe will be happily rewarded over the course of time what we do believe is that we really don't compare and contrast well to 300 to 500 million dollar community banks um i just came from a conference sponsored by the american bankers association on small business uh finance and small business uh as a targeted marketplace i met some of my competitors we're just very different than them in every facet and we'll try to bring some of that as we go through the call we'd love for you to ask questions why can we grow deposits below the risk-free rate without traditional bankers and branches why are npls higher important to note they're higher but we're still profitable and also why are these three things that we do very well going to continue such as raising deposits below the risk-free rate being able to do loans with our lending operating system in remote locations as well as the important progress that
we've made in our alternative loan program we'll focus on that today for those people following
along please go to newtechone.com go to the investor relations section where you can find the powerpoint presentation please go to slide number two and note the statement regarding forward-looking statements make sure that gets absorbed now go to slide number three important always to re-emphasize the mission of the company because at the end of the day it always gets down to the customer to do a good job for the customer and there's good margin in your business you're going to do well book for all your stakeholders our mission has not changed since the company was formed in 1998 which is providing business and financial solutions to independent business owners all across the united states within this mission and recently acquiring a bank and being a bank holding company we've opened up 22 000 depository accounts in our window of time and we have 10 000 borrowers in our database that we've been able to do remotely without traditional bankers brokers bdos or branches we do payroll for 20 000 employees and we're processing electronic payments for over 5 billion dollars on an annualized basis on slide number four once again focusing on who we are and our mission statement um take a look at new tech being a technology oriented financial holding company we look at that particular organization as we are now also a depository that's important to note we do not want to be compared as a community bank that's traditional We don't look like one. We don't compare like one. And what we really do well, acquire customers cost-effectively, service their needs with great margin, and make loans on a risk-adjusted basis. We manage credit risk. We don't avoid it. So if you look at our financial statements, we typically have higher reserves. We also have higher non-accruals. But on a net basis, after that expense were still extraordinarily profitable. So in January of 2023, NewTek acquired what is now known as NewTek Bank National Association to add depository solutions. We use proprietary and patented advanced technological solutions to acquire customers cost effectively. We receive about 600 business referrals that are unique a day. And we have a full menu of best in class on-demand solutions because our customers, they want you on demand. A typical entrepreneur and business owner doesn't necessarily want you from 9 to 5, Monday to Friday. They want you on Saturday. They want you on Sunday. They want you in the evenings. We service this independent business owner clientele, which is extremely important. When you go to slide number five and focusing on this target market of independent business owners, SMEs, SMEs, small and medium-sized enterprises small medium-sized businesses there's more than 36 million business owners in the u.s according to the sba according to u.s chamber of commerce it represents 43 percent of u.s gdp and according to the small business administration's website through the last five years we have been able to support or stabilize over 110 000 jobs which is the second highest amount of jobs supported by all the lenders in the sba 7a program we think this market is important we think it is valuable we do know that the top four banks and many other financial institutions based upon what i saw at these recent conferences are trying to figure out how to bank this particular customer base and they have to go beyond just getting their deposits which they typically take in in a non-interest bearing fashion we do that for this customer base and we believe we're being rewarded for that. Slide number six talks about that and those nuts and bolts that we all like to focus on. So we take our slide rulers out and our compasses and our protractors and look at all these nice numbers that we've got. So we have a very healthy Q3 and 2025 earnings and revenue growth. When you look at Q3 basic and diluted, 68 and 67 cents over the course of the first nine months of the year. It's $1.57 and $1.54. The growth rates are up 47 percent comparatively and 22 percent when you look at that year-over-year comparison with revenue growth of 19 to 16 percent respectively. Important trends in book value, $11.72. Mind you, we started off in Q1 of 2023 three with tangible book value of six dollars and 92 cents per share and that's growth to 1122 so tremendous growth in tangible book all the while we paid a very healthy dividend to our shareholders currently 19 cents a quarter or 76 cents for the year we've also experienced continued success in growing core deposits business deposits sequentially over the quarter of 52 million or 17 percent consumer deposits climbed 95 million or 12 percent we're growing deposits without the use of branches bankers brokers or videos next bullet talks about a very important category which we refer to as our new text it's new text alternative loan program in our alternative loan program we finance that through securitizations we use securitizations to be able to better asset liability match these longer-term, duration-based assets. We are currently expecting an ALP securitization in the fourth quarter of 2025. That'll be our largest to date. The range here of $325 to $350 million of ALP loans will clearly be our biggest. This will be the 17th securitization in NewTex 1's history and fourth in this particular category. We're excited about it. We look forward to bringing it and should be a very profitable endeavor for all of our shareholders. Capital position bolstered and capital structured simplified. In the recent quarter, we were very pleased with the capital that we raised. We issued Series B preferred and common equity. We boosted Tier 1 capital and common equity Tier 1 by roughly $80 million and 30 million respectively we're very pleased that we're able to boost our capital ratios to support the growth rates that we're doing on a safe and sound basis regarding operating leverage our efficiency ratio declined from 61.8 to 56.3 at the holding company even with assets up 43 but operating expenses only up eight and a half percent our return on average assets for the quarter was 3.15 percent. It continues to trend well ahead of the industry. Payments, payroll, insurance, they're additive to earnings, good value proposition. We'll talk about that within the confines of the presentation today. But also importantly, they're very additive to our deposit gathering function, and they bring tremendous value to our business customers. If you're doing business with ADP, for example, you're not really connected to an ADP bank account because they're not a bank. If you're doing payments through WorldPay or Fiserv, you're not really connected to a bank. With us, we give you one solution fully integrated with a dashboard called the New Tech Advantage that gives you transactional capability, analytics, and data to be able to manager transactions. So one other important item for Q3's financial highlights. In NSBF, that is our non-bank lender that is in a wind-down mode. This is left over from when we were a BDC. This is held up at the holding company. The loss in this business, because it is not originating, it's in a wind-down mode, keeps going smaller and smaller. We've got a slide to accentuate that. So we had a $14 million loss for the first three quarters of 2025. In 2024, the full year's loss was $28.7 million. So we're probably trending to an $18 to $20 million type loss. That is going to continue to decline over time, and we have a slide to focus on that. On slide number seven, we can focus on the Q3 2025 financial highlights. We talked about return on assets, return on equity, return on tangible common equity, efficiency ratio all very very strong particularly compared to industry standards I would like to point out that our NPL total loans at 8.1% which is fairly high compared to a community bank or the banks that you typically look at but I think it's important to note this has already been written off or written down so the important part to notice is as we're building new portfolios these These numbers are stabilizing, and we believe our data will show that. When you adjust for the NPLs, it's 3.8%. That will be taking out the NSPF portfolio, which was probably underwritten during one of the most difficult times for small business finance. 2021, 2022, and 2023, going through that zero rate environment with Prime was 3%. We know Prime went up to 8.5% at some point. Now it's starting to come down. The wind, we think, is finally at our back. We're experiencing lower provisions, and we believe this is stabilizing and will be less of a headwind going further. Slide number eight, New Tech Bank National Association, the financial highlights. Please go to the last column, Q3 2025. ROAA, 3.57, return on change of common equity, 32%. Efficiency ratio rounds up to 47. NIM, 5.4%. I look at the NIMs in some of the top four banks. just watch that. This is that reoccurring benefit that you're going to get as we begin to build a bigger and bigger portfolio at the bank. Needless to say, at the bank, we're dealing with CECL, which is negatively biasing us currently because you have that big charge up front, and you don't get that high coupon from this particular portfolio until over time. So I think that due to the negative type of accounting machinations from CECL, This will be more beneficial as time goes on. As we begin to use the balance sheet more, particularly with SBA 7A lending, keeping some loans on our balance sheet, not selling them all off, that's a strategy that we've seen other people in the space being quite successful with. Look at our quarter-over-quarter loan growth, 9% health for investment, deposits up 11%. I'm reading research reports from other banks, our size they were being compared against. they're growing to 3% and they're getting rave reviews I don't know what the problem with us is but we'll keep doing this and I'm sure we'll get there eventually look at our capital ratios very strong 11 up to close to 15% all the three key leverage ratio once again very important allowance for credit losses 5.42% we have the reserves that will be able to support higher losses and higher charge-offs. Slide number nine, tangible value per share growth. We talked about this earlier. Real tremendous increase. All the while, we paid a healthy dividend now to our shareholders of 76 cents on an annual basis, 19 cents per quarter. But you can see tangible book value increasing materially from 6.92 to 11.22. Really, we're very proud of growing this tangible book value number. Slide number 10, deposits. We talked about the growth in deposits. We're currently at about 3.72% on deposits. We think that number can maybe get down to 2 to 2.5%. That's going to depend upon the merchant business and the payroll business and the insurance agency and the lender helping chip in and embracing clients to give us the depository account along with the other things that we do from a risk standpoint 78 percent of our deposits are insured very valuable with a loan to deposit ratio of 95 percent slide number 11 the alternative loan program extremely important to new tech one this business is currently done up at the holding company which developed in 2019 historically our charge-offs have been below one percent i believe They've had $5.7 million of charge-offs historically, $720 million of total loans originated. Important to understand what this program is about. We have a funnel to lend money to businesses. When the referrals come in, the customer doesn't know what the best loan might be for them. It could be a revolver. It could be a 7A loan. It could be a 504 loan. Or it could be what we refer to as the New Tech Alternative Loan Program, which has similar characteristics to a 7A in that it's got a 10-year or 25-year fully amortizing amount of principle with no balloon, but the credits are much, much stronger. We have guarantors that range from $5 to $100 million on ALP loans. Our average loan size is about $4 to $5 million, so great growth opportunity. If you do 200 units of ALP loans, it's a billion dollars of loans. So we do believe there's great growth opportunities here. And as we'll show you in slides going forward, very profitable opportunity. It's important to note that NewTek, unlike these other 300 to 500 million banks, make loans and sell them or sell them into securitization vehicles. Other banks hold them. One of the reasons why they hold them is they can't replace them. We have a machine that makes loans and sells them. We have a machine that acquires deposits. This machine has been going on for over two decades, except for the depository side, obviously. That's somewhat new, but we're showing that we're able to acquire deposits at attractive rates. I think it's extremely important to be able to analyze this alternative loan program business. As I mentioned, we're about to do our fourth securization in Q4 2025, the biggest ever. On number 12, this will give you an idea of what the metrics are for these types of loans. First of all, high FICO scores. Weighted average LTV at originations, 47%. Debt service coverage on average, 3.4 times. Weighted average gross coupon, 13.17. And we say weighted average spread to the base rate. The base rate is the five-year treasury. So these loans are typically fixed for five, and then they adjust at the margin. They're flawed at the initial rate, and they can never go down. They also have prepayment penalties of 5% in the first 36 months, and then 3% in months 36 to 48. So these are not prepaid. We want that spread income to be kept over a long period of time. So we talked about diversification in states, diversification in industry. Let's go to slide number 13. So we have these securitizations on our books. On slide 13, the 2022-1 deal, that's been paid off. So we wound up having all the cash flows behind the bonds repay the bonds. So the bonds don't exist. The security holders are very happy. They got their money back. And we're able to roll these loans into a new transaction. The 2024-1 was our next deal. That was done with a joint venture partner, similar to 2022-1. So you could take a look at the AOP loans, the weighted average yield, notes and securitization, the spread, the weighted average rate of 672. Now, the important part is the gross spread before the servicing fee and after the servicing fee. So we're the servicer, so it's a good servicing stream because of the call protection. The servicing lasts for a long period of time, 496 basis points on 2024-1. On the recent deal, it was 568. We believe that the spreads we're going to be getting on the next deal will be closer to the 568. So you could see, once you put the business on and the loans go into the securitization structure, there's no costs. So we're leveraging the infrastructure across the entire business line and putting these loans in. So there's not a transactional cost for deposits. So the cost of funding is greater in a securitization, but it's match funded. So you don't have to worry about interest rate risk. But look at that spread margin. If I was to go to a banker and say you can get 568 basis points of spread, that's after the servicing fee. And there's no cost associated with it. They would say, where do we sign up? Well, good news. We have it. It's our program. We have a track record. We have alliance partners that are getting more and more familiar with the business, and we believe this will be a growth area for the company going forward. Slide number 14 gives the status of the three completed ALP securitizations. 2022 is gone. 2024 is on the books. 2025-1 on the books. This will give you feel for the original balances the notes paid down and whether we did this with a partner or not by the way the partners and the joint venture partners in the deal they invested side by side with us from first loss so we do know where these valuations trade and we mark them appropriately all this data is in our queues it's a 14 yield with a 15 frequency over the life of the pool and a 20 percent severity that gets you to a three percent historical charge off that's how we come up with our valuations slide number 15 new tech bank national association credit quality we think this is an important slide because it will show you that we're as this portfolio is seasoning because mind you we took over the bank it was 180 million of total assets today i think we're we're looking at about $1.4 billion of total assets. So we're building a new portfolio. But as you're building a new portfolio, particularly in the types of loans that we do, these aren't car loans. These aren't residential mortgages. I mean, most of the 7A loans have these types of characteristics. So you do have a ramp of NPLs and charge-offs, but this is starting to level off. Most importantly, the allowance for credit losses we believe will adequately cover the NPLs. So we're pleased with the performance. There's no surprises here. This performance is done according to the plan. So for those that were concerned that we're not going to make it, I don't fully understand the marketplace here. We have people rooting for us. We have people rooting against us. Rooting against this over a course of 25 years is not a good bet. We're very pleased with the management team, with the relationship we have with the regulatory authorities, with all of our providers and warehousing line securitization investors. We just came back from an ABS-E conference. We had three, four meetings in two days. We couldn't be more pleased with how the business itself is performing. Slide number six, the SBA 7A loan portfolio, New Tech Bank. The big issue here is there is a concentration in 7A, particularly with respect to the allowance for credit losses combining for 89%. We believe that we're going to begin to layer in more CRE, more CNI into the bank portfolio, and that will level off. And we're very pleased about that initiative, and that is also according to plan. Slide number 17, we talked about NSBF. That is the old non-bank SBLC, Small Business Lending Corp., licensed non-bank SBA lender. Some of you may not know that when we acquired the bank, we were not able to put these assets into the bank because of the debt. These loans are sitting in securitizations. There are three securitizations right now that exist, 2021, 2022, and 2023, although the 2021 is callable and we'll look to try to do something with that cleanup call shortly. But this is the legacy non-bank subsidiary that's holding a portfolio in wind-down mode. Note, the increase in non-accruals from Q3 2024, this is declining, extremely important. It's still increasing, but it's increasing at a lower rate. The aging of the portfolio, these are seasoned loans. They are less likely to default. The accruing portfolio of 215 is sitting in securitization with $140 million of bonds against them. The non-accruals of fair value, which will be liquidated over the next 12 or 24 months, $64 million that should get turned into cash and be available for a bunch of things. dividends, share buybacks, paying off debt, and other things. NSBF equity, $256 million. Notice that the NSBF loans as a percentage of the total balance sheet of the consolidated balance sheet of NewTek 1 is shrinking. Just Q3 2024 was 32%, Q3 2025 down to 16%. percent so this loss is declining material once again we talked about 28.7 million dollar loss in 2024 it's probably going to come in at 18 20 million dollars for this calendar year um and the performing loans are also paying down so when they pay down if they're in securization they pay off the debt when they're outside of spiritization i think we have about 55 million of those that's canceled it goes right to the subsidiary and we do believe the non-accrual inflows in the portfolio they've decelerated for five consecutive months we're pleased about that as well slide number 18 operating leverage being captured this is all about the efficiency ratio the clients was 61.8 to 56.3 and that's at the holdco at the bank i think we're at 46 or 47 percent we're pleased with that as well this is all while total assets are growing revenues are growing but operating expenses are not growing at its higher rate slide number 19 talks about the subsidiaries our payment processing business we expect to contribute 16 and a half million to pre-tax income in 2025 and we also are looking for greater contribution from a deposit perspective we'll have some of that data going into the next quarter. Insurance policies, 10,000 policies in 2025, it's up 34% year over year. That's the total cumulative policies. And we expect the insurance agency to contribute about $800,000 in pre-tax. The payroll business contributing about $600,000 in pre-tax. Payroll clients, $860,000, but there's 20,000 employees that doing payroll for and that business is growing nicely all these three things are great complement to a depository and they should be part of the total treasury management system which we have through the new tech advantage so we all believe that these business lines should continue to contribute growth in business deposits and bring in sticky more attractive deposits one last item we will be launching a new offering not a new product but a new offering the new tech one triple play which will give a customer an unsecured line of credit for up to ten thousand dollars provided they uh are credit approved and a merchant account um or a payroll account so you get a line of credit you get a bank account and a merchant payroll account all at the same time new tech ones triple play last slide number 20 we talked about this the capital that we raised in this particular uh i'd say recent quarter and uh patriots financial we appreciate their investment exchanging 20 million of the series a convertible and an additional 10 million dollar cash investment for shares and those shares are locked up for 24 months Patriot sits on the board of the bank they have a pretty good bird's-eye view we really appreciate a sophisticated institutional banking after having faith in our organization second we issued 50 million dollars of fixed reset non-cumulant preferred federal stock 50 million dollars in issuance and we also refinanced the merchant business who take merchant solutions through Goldman Sachs alternatives $95 million financing solution it took out I believe it was about a little over 30 million dollars of financing that gives us plenty of cash capital going into 2026 to be able to pay off our unsecured debt of any WTZs and other obligations in the future we're very well positioned going into 2026 and with that operator like to turn this over to Q&A well as my my CFOs, and my help hope to answer any questions we might have from investors or analysts.
Operator
Thank you. So at this time, we will conduct the question and answer session. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Tim Switzer of KBW. Your line is now open. Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question.
First one I have is just on credit trends real quick. Could you guys update us on what you're seeing in the market? There's obviously been some disruption and a bit of a credit cycle, and I'm curious, you know, are there any certain areas where you're seeing more pressure in terms of, like, industry or geographies related to others?
Yeah. So, Tim, I think regarding credit trends, we do believe this is an economy of haves and have-nots. I think that that's kind of been the case for a while, and I think we've experienced quite a bit of stress and strain and uncertainty in the small business community. With rates spiking up, obviously, we're starting to get that rate relief. We appreciate the drop in rates today as well as the inflation pressures we are staying away from the volatile businesses and volatile industries where they are commodity based anything that relates to oil and gas transportation is a difficult category um and clearly agriculture so anything that's related to those particular industries we're staying away from the consumer side is still pretty strong. As long as we have an equity market and a home real estate market where values are holding or appreciating, we think that spend will continue. And we do believe that our portfolio, primarily driven by the seasoning, is flattening out. Mind you, we've been a lender in this space for over 25 years. So we know it well. We've seen it in high rates, low rates, inflation, and deflation. So we have a pretty good feel for it. We also get a very good sense from our portfolio of customers and payment processing and payroll and things of that nature. So we have a very good cross-section of credit and see what's working and what's not.
All right, that's helpful. And then there's no slides on updated guidance this quarter. Are you still confident in the previous guide for 65 to 80 cents for Q4?
Yeah, that's a good question, Tim. I would say this. Right now, we have a government shutdown. And if the government gets open within two weeks, I wouldn't see any dramatic changes. But then again, I can't bet on that. This is a pretty volatile, uncertain. So we don't have a reason to pull the guidance, but hopefully people invest in us, not necessarily on what happens in the fourth quarter, but from the standpoint of the business model, looking at book and things of that nature, but just to be totally fair, we can't live by the previous guidance given the basis of
the government shutdown. Yeah, that's fair enough. Can you maybe elaborate on, you know, I think you're still able to originate or at least process some loans that have already been approved before the SBA shut down. Can you maybe explain that and then maybe provide a timeline on, you know, what's kind of the deadline on when your originations and ability to sell loans would actually start to be more challenged if the shutdown lasted, you know, say to like Thanksgiving
or something? Sure. So, given that we've been doing this for a long period of time, Beginning of September, you start to cover your portfolio. So you can estimate what's going to be closing throughout the month of October and maybe even in November. Although you can't get a guarantee number, we are still taking in applications. And there is also a provision in the SBA's SOP that allows you to bridge a borrower through a period of time and then roll it into a 7A loan. So it's very hard to predict whether this will affect us or not affect us, but we do know the ways to be able to get through these shutdowns. over, you know, more than two decades, we've experienced this and we have all the tools and we currently are providing bridge financing to borrowers to enable to fund them into a bridge
that will get taken out with a 7A loan. Okay, I got it. And then the last question I have is can you provide the tier one in total capital risk-based ratios for the holding company? I don't believe I saw that in the police or slide deck.
Frank, could you help with that?
Yeah, currently, Tim, we're looking at about 12.5% on leverage at the holding company and just shy of 16% for total risk-based capital.
Operator
Okay, thank you. All right, thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Crispin Love of Piper Sandler. Your line is now open.
Thank you. Good afternoon, Barry. Just first, just following up on the shutdown, Barry, did you poll PLP numbers ahead of the shutdown in September for potential SBA 7A loans in your pipeline? And if so, kind of what type of volume could you do from those polls in the fourth quarter?
I don't have the second number, but we did pull product, and that's pretty much covering loans that we had going forward that probably fund about 45 days from the time we get the POP number. So, I mean, we're probably covered for half the quarter. But I also want to point out, Crispin, that if you look at our mix of loans, it's changing. AOP, we've done more CRE, we've done more CNI. So, you know, this is one of these times where I don't really want to predict what Chuck Schumer is going to do or Trump or John Thune or Mike Johnson. So when I say it's a tough time, this is temporary. This too shall pass. It's only a quarter. I know we're all focused on the next quarter, and that's what we do when we look at these things, but this too shall pass. And frankly, it's made it difficult. A lot of people have dropped out of the 7A space because of the changes in the SBA program. So, you know, we're sorry for other people's misfortune, but, you know, we've been able to weather these storms over time. We'll be here for many years and many quarters after this one.
Okay. Great. Thanks, Perry. And then just on the $29 million on loans under the fair value option, that revenue line in the quarter, can you just discuss some of the key drivers there, what you might expect on a go-forward basis as it can be fairly volatile, especially with the large securitization coming in the fourth quarter?
Sure. Yeah. Frank, I believe that's a mix of governments and ALP, but I'll let you answer
that question, Frank. Yeah. No, Christian, you're spot on. We're ramping up for the next securization. As you saw on that slide, we're looking at somewhere between $325 million and $150 million in capital. So a lot of that this quarter is related to that. And similar to what you saw last quarter, you will see kind of that, I'll call it that slip in the fair value line as we, you know, close the securitization and pull the residual onto the balance sheet. So you'll see that again, as you alluded to in the next quarter. But most of that is related to, you know, the originations and sacking the inventory for the securitization. And then to Barry's point, you know, some additional 7A guarantees that we're holding a little bit longer for, you know, for sale and obviously with the shutdown, but we plan to, you know, continue to sell those once the government reopens.
Okay, perfect. And then, yeah, just last point on, I just want to make sure I'm thinking about the guidance correctly. So you're not pulling the guidance, but not affirming the prior guide. Is it really just more of a timing issue, whether that gain on sale revenue hits in 4Q, 1Q, or beyond, rather than anything more than that?
I can't comment on it. It's very difficult to forecast, and I really can't comment on it at this time. I mean, the one thing I can tell you, you know, at a stock price with a 10 or 11 handle, does it really make a difference? You don't have to answer that, but that's my view.
Fair enough. I appreciate it, Barry. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Steve Moss of Raymond James. Your line is now open.
Good afternoon. Barry, maybe just, you know, maybe on the SBA program from a higher level or just business activity, just kind of curious, you know, what's your sense of, um, customer demand or customer confidence? Um, you know, I realize maybe the closure of the SBA makes it a little harder to get a read, but just kind of curious how you're, how you're feeling about the potential pipeline if, you know, or potential activity,
um, within the space you'll end. Steve, I think it's a, it's a great question and it's, you know, pointed to this particular market, which right now, as we know, there are lenders that are leaving this space, and it is harder to do loans. I think when I was asked this question last quarter, and there was a discussion about the changes that the agency had made, whether it would affect originations or not, I didn't believe that it would. It has. It's been a tougher market. to do loans one particular area has to do with merchant cash advance and not being able to refinance a merchant cash advance loan and the second area has to do with um anybody in the ownership chain even if it's one percent um that cannot prove that their u.s citizen can't get an sba loan and i think you'd be surprised at the amount of participants that would apply that can't do it now we we've also got customers that are coming to us that insist that they're citizens they have the documented proof but the database isn't saying that they are so you can't make a loan i will also tell you we've got people that we're approving for financing and due to the uncertainty in the marketplace and tariffs things that nature they're not taking it So I would just say that on a going forward basis, it's gonna be a much harder business to do business. We feel good about it. We feel good about our position in the market from a long-term perspective. But I think that where it was a very effervescent year from October 1, 2024 to September 30, 2025, I think you're going to see some different numbers in this coming government fiscal year from all originators. We finished up last year second to Live Oak Bank from SBA statistics, but I think that whole top 20 is going to shake up quite a bit. We like the business. We've been in it for a long period of time. We think it's a great program and a great product.
Okay, great. Appreciate all that color there. And then the other thing, you know, I noticed was you're talking about diversifying the bank balance sheet here, adding more C&I and CRE. Just kind of curious, you know, what does that look like in the future? You know, the type of loan you're thinking about adding. Could some of the ALP loans end up on the bank balance sheet? Just any color there would be great.
So, Steve, I think that, you know, diversification is extremely important. and there's a lot of good opportunities for us in straight C&I line of credit type lending and CRE type lending. One of the things I'm going to suggest to my team, I think we're going to look to do an analyst day sometime in December or very early in January right after the new year and be able to re-forecast out and give the analyst community investors some better guidance on a going forward basis. But I think that when you look at total loan originations across ALP, CRA, CNI, line of credit, clearly where historically we were very much well known as an SBA 7A lender, it's the furthest thing from the truth. And we like the program. We think it's great, but it's going to be part of a diversified approach to really developing that franchise in the SMB marketplace. But I think SBA, where right now, you know, the uninsured balance sheet is probably, you know, 44 to 45 percent-ish, not including what has gone on at NSBF. We would like that to come down a little bit, and we clearly want to grow the alternative program business dramatically from where it is today. It's very profitable. Credits are bigger. Customers are bigger. And the returns
equal the 7A business. Okay. And maybe on that point, where I was going to go with my next question is on the out business here, you know, it's clearly a big securitization coming. Is this kind of like what you expect to be the more normal run rate in future securitizations, kind of in this $300 million plus range? And maybe do we see more than two a year?
Good question. I'd like to keep it at two a year. And the goal would be to get those numbers bigger. This is the first time we've ever done two AOP securitizations in the same calendar year. So I'd like to do two a year, get the numbers bigger. Bigger pools are better. There's more diversification. You get better receptivity from investors. So, yeah, I definitely appreciate the question and would like to do bigger deals. You know, it's an average loan size of $4.5 million to $5 million, so not a lot of credits. I mean, we'll do 2,500 to 2,700 credits now. Just do another 200 credits. You know, it takes a lot of effort to do a million-dollar loan. It takes about the same amount of effort to do that bigger loan.
Right. Okay. That's helpful. And then in terms of, you know, you touched on your three-year anniversary here coming up in January. you know, kind of curious as to what potential flexibility we may see or we should expect after that three-year anniversary, if any.
It's a good question, Steve. I think you'll see, you know, from a flexible standpoint, I think you'll see the business model, all the things that we talked about. But I think you'll see, from my mouth to God's ears, better execution on the deposit side, better execution on the ALP side in terms of more volume, but no change in the product mix, which is important. But I think you'll see a bank and a bank holding company that maybe you're more familiar with in analyzing the metrics than what you've seen to date. So that's our goal, to just be able to provide more information, better information. We're hopeful that we provide additional information in this deck that will give people a better insight in terms of what we're doing. We want to be as transparent as we possibly can.
There definitely was a lot of information in this deck. I'm still trying to digest it. Maybe put it this way, with the three-year anniversary, you're 12.5% leverage right now. You know, would you go down to like a 9% or 10% type number in the next two or three years?
I think we do plan on using the balance sheet a little bit more and using more leverage. So I appreciate the question. It's not going to be dramatic, but I think, you know, what's important, I think, A, to yourself, investors, regulators, you know they want to make sure that we had the capability the management team the systems the software the policy in place to be able to manage the business and manage the growth we clearly had people that said to me you can't grow this fast you can't do what you're doing well we're still here and our plans are intact as I'm like stated in many calls we're on plan we're on plan with NPLs, with capital, we're unplanned. So with our three-year anniversary here, we're looking to continue to grow and hopefully get better recognition from the markets for what we've been able to do so far. So yeah, I appreciate you focusing in on that
timeframe because it is important to us. Okay. I appreciate all the call here, Barry. Thank you very much. Thank you, Steve.
Operator
Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star 1-1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. Our next question comes from the line of Hal Goach of B. Riley Securities. Your line is now open.
Hey, Barry. Thanks for taking the time. You mentioned on the call, and this is kind of a sector question, that some SBA lenders are leaving the market. And I wanted to give us a little color on that, why that is. and you have been taking shares and wanting to get your feel on the long-term outlook for SBA lenders, your ability to increase share. And the other question is just on the ALP side. The government shutdown isn't holding up the ALP program, right? So correct me if I'm wrong, but then if it isn't, can you give us a little color on originations for the first three quarters of the year or the third quarter and your outlook there if you if you can because that isn't being impacted thank you sure how
appreciated so um I mean this is public information Bay first which was a top 20 lender pushed out of the market I think their business went to an entity called Benesco there were one of the SBA changes relating to limited underwriting score and go. I think they dropped the cut from like 500 to 350. So a lot of competitors entered the space after PPP that were basically technology providers. And they really didn't provide the fulsome lending that's required, in my opinion, in a regulated environment. So, I mean, that's the only name that I could openly talk about in the public market because it's out there. But we are familiar with several other lenders right now that basically have got to cut back. You know, we hear this and see this from the interviewing process with people coming to us expressing reservations about what they're doing going forward. This does not affect the ALP business at all. And I think just from a volume standpoint for us, we might have a little bit of a degradation in the next quarter or two in 7A volume, but we believe we'll be able to deliver good numbers from a market multiple standpoint, and we'll be able to make it up. From an ALP perspective, we were targeting, I think, between $350 to $400 million in ALP loans for this calendar year, and I believe that's what we'll hit. We hope to do materially more than that next year. I don't have a number on that, but if I had to come up with a number, I would say $500 to $600 million, but I haven't really cleared that with my boss, Pete Downs, the president and COO with the bank. He's the boss in that area.
I think that's one follow-up. It seems like the LTVs on the LTV laws are quite good, right? And, you know, what are the pressure memories on the collateral taking for those loans? If you could, yeah.
One of the things, Hal, I will do is DBRS is the rating agency, and they put out a nice pre-sale agreement. I'll make sure that we can get you a copy of those so you can get a description of what the loans look like, how they're underwritten. Anybody that wants that, please let myself or Bryce Rowe know. I'm sure DBRS would be happy to provide that. What goes into it is these are businesses that do have a business valuation, so we get a business appraisal. About 65% of our loans typically have commercial real estate liens behind them. If there's not a commercial real estate lien, we're looking at intellectual property. We're looking at machinery, equipment, inventory, and most importantly, personal guarantees. So every 20% equity owner or greater must personally guarantee it. So in many cases, we're getting things like marketable securities, real estate assets. It could be residences. It could be investment in real estate property to all go into that LTV. The reason why these borrowers subscribe to these types of loans is because of the long amortization. You're basically giving them equity because they get to keep the principal for longer periods of time. And the flexibility in the covenants, which we think, I'll take a personal guarantee and lean on personal assets over a covenant that you're dealing with 45 days in arrears after the fact.
Yeah. Excellent. Okay. Thank you, Barry.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Christopher Nolan of Leidenberg Thalman & Company. Your line is now open.
Hey, Barry. Barry, what's your thoughts on increasing the dividend? Good question, but always a tough one. We obviously have one of the best dividend-paying
stocks in the market. As a shareholder, I'm a participant in that. I love the dividend. I would say, to be frank with you, we're not getting a tremendous amount of value for its dividend or the increase. I would say, and this is not my decision, it's the board's decision who has to declare it. I would say if there was a choice of A or B, and there's a choice C, which is do nothing, by the way. But if there was a choice A or B, we'd probably be more inclined to buy stock back and increase the dividend. But we also might wind up with C, which is do nothing. But I think to answer your question, I would just say it's possible, but unlikely that we'll increase the dividend in the near term.
Got it. Great. And I guess the capital ratios look awfully healthy, and kudos to you guys. Do you guys sort of get a nudge from regulators or whatever to pad your capital ratios a little bit just because of the unconventional business model?
um i would have thought that would have been the case um but the answer is no um you know they you know they typically they typically don't tell you what to do they tell you what you can't um so no no nothing along those lines although to be frank with you that was a management decision um that we made during i guess what i'll refer to as our maiden you know voyage currently so we're comfortable with it. We wanted to demonstrate to the market we're well capitalized. We've got generous allowance for credit losses, and we know how to run a bank. As a non-banker that's CEO of a bank, so I guess I am a banker now, we brought in really experienced people across the board in every single area. And I think that's been good. And not everybody works out. I've been asked, are we going to have changes and all that stuff? And if I was to say, no, I'm not going to change anybody in my management team out, they lose their incentive to work hard and deliver the results. So we're going to continue to work on building this platform together, upgrading it. And I hand it all off to the management team of the company for delivering these results. They've done a terrific job. And we do plan on using the balance sheet more and utilizing more of the capital going forward.
Final question. You guys sort of seem, I mean, you have unusual business models, highly profitable when it works properly. but you guys see while you're a technology bank you sort of have one foot in technology one foot in traditional banking and when you start looking at models like LendingTree which are much more focused on the user interface mobile and everything else less so on the back end but you guys have the back end down is that the direction we should see the model evolving or what are your thoughts? Does your stock price values help if you start becoming a fintech, which actually
has a bank behind it? I love the question, Chris. I thank you for it. First of all, I'm going to put the names aside for the moment. I look at organizations that are trading at Pretty substantial multiples like a lending club or Live Oak or SoFi. And SoFi is a little bit different, but some of these companies, for the first several years, they flatlined. They didn't move until the market got comfortable with their model and what they were doing and developed a better understanding. and then all of a sudden it started jumping because some people don't feel the multiples match up or make any sense. But when you think of Lending Club, I mean, they do do small business lending, but it's not a huge number. Look at a company like Inova, which doesn't currently own a depository. It's trading at a multiple in the teens. And you look at our multiple. So I think that there's not a lot different than they're doing what we're doing relative to the returns on equity, returns on assets. I just think this is a familiarity issue. But I will tell you that the people that I meet with who spend the time and put the work in, they like what we're doing. If you look at our shareholder base, according to NASDAQ, it's 52% of institutional. I'm pretty confident that number is more like 65 or 70. So, you know, if you play around with the math, there's 10 million shares in the float and there's 2.5 million shares short. Something just doesn't make a lot of sense here. But that's for other people to figure out. I mean, there are people that like the stock here and there are people that obviously that don't like it because there's a big share short. We'll figure this out. Well, in the meantime, we're building a great business. We've got 22,000 digital depository accounts, 10,000 lending customers, 20,000 employees that we do payroll for. We move money quickly, efficiently, at lower cost. Someone's got to like what we're doing here. That's why at the beginning of my presentation, I said, please focus on the business. Do you like this business? If you like the business, you should like the stock.
Okay. Thanks for the answer, Barry. Thank you, Chris.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ivan Jimenez of Greenholder. The line is now open.
Hello, Barry. Thanks for the question.
My question relates – I just want to understand the math right. You have $1.2 trillion in assets, am I correct?
At the bank, it's $1.4 billion, I believe. At the whole cost, it's $2.4 billion, approximately.
Okay, and you started with $300 million.
With a B, not a T. Pardon me? That's the market cap.
You started with $300 million. Am I correct?
National Bank of New York City was $180 million in total assets when we bought it, approximately.
So, in essence, your model has gone from a BDC that we used to have to raise money every quarter or whatever, whenever you needed money, to basically depository. So that's your primary source of funds now, am I correct? Yes, it is. Of which 78% of that is guaranteed deposits. So these are deposits of less than the FDIC rate. Am I correct? So you don't have this risk of pullout.
Yeah, we have a deposit base, which I think is about $1.2 billion. dollars. We still do have other liabilities, but more and more of the liabilities are going to come from deposit gathering. We're going to look to grow the balance sheet and the earnings of the bank. Okay, that was my question. I just wanted to make sure that I heard the numbers right. Yeah, no, the growth numbers are numbers that do not exist, and obviously it's off of low basis, but these are numbers that don't exist in the banking business. I read research reports. People are growing their deposits and loans by like one or two or three percent is like oh this is fantastic it's great growth and i'm kind of scratching my head going uh hey what about me
that's precisely correct i just went the numbers i just wanted to make sure that that i heard right um because to me that those numbers were important for me to model what i'm
Operator
what i'm doing thank you thank you i'm showing no for the questions at this time i would now like like to turn it back to Barry for closing remarks. I want to thank everybody for attending. I really
appreciate the work the analysts have done and the great questions. Thoughtful, insightful, forward-thinking both for us and the industry. And Bryce and I are always available along with Frank and Scott to be helpful and answer any questions you might have. So thank you very much.
Operator
Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. You