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Earnings call · FY2025 Q4
Executive readout · one minute
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Confident
Net tone +55 · low hedging
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| Metric | Period | Guided | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
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Same-store revenue
2026
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5% – 6% | — |
How the reported period landed and where the business moved.
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Thank you for standing by. My name is Kate, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to NextPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust Q4 2025 Investor Update Call. I would now like to turn the call over to Kristen Griffith, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good day, everyone, and welcome to NextPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust Investor Update Call. On the call today are Paul Richards, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Matt McGriner, Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer, and John Good, Chief Executive Officer of Next Flight Storage Partners and Chief Executive Officer of Weinberg Homes Truck, Inc. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that this update call and accompanying presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 that are based on management's current expectations, assumptions, and beliefs. Listeners should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements and are encouraged to review the company's annual report on 410K and the company's other filings with the SEC for a more complete discussion of risk and other factors that could affect the forward-looking statement. The statement made during this conference call, Speak only as of today's date and accept as required by law. NXDT does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. I would now like to turn the call over to Matt. Please go ahead, Matt.
Thank you, Kristen, and thank you to everyone for joining the call this morning for updates on NXDT's progress. As Kristen said, I'm joined today by Paul Richards, our CFO of NXDT, and John Good, CEO of our storage and single-family rental businesses. This morning, we will discuss NXDT's real estate market to provide updates on our top holdings. First, I'd like to spend a few minutes discussing the residential market, the supply picture, and continuing progress of our city-place office to residential conversion. I'll then turn the call over to John and Paul to discuss our storage, SFR, and credit vehicles. Then, I'll close with some updates on our efforts to monetize assets and repurchase stock, remaining our key near-term focus. On the residential front, we continue to work through the highest supply cycle since the 1980s and do believe we will see new lease inflection this year. I detailed this on prior calls, but just to quickly repeat, we think multifamily rents will inflect positive, with most of our market exposure occurring in the second half of 2026. We attribute this to four main factors. Persistent structural demand, i.e., the cost to own a home is three times more than to rent an apartment in our markets. A 60% decline in new market rate deliveries from the peak. Third, a construction starts running approximately 70% below their 2022 peak, locking in a multi-year supply trough. And finally, concession burn-off, resulting in immediate gains to gross potential rents. We do think AI will have some job cannibalizing effect, particularly in the entry-level white-collar job market, but also see an encouraging residential trend offsetting potential job weaknesses, that is, advances in health and wellness are adding longevity to the population, creating somewhat of a demographic backstop to demand. Again, with respect to the City Place Uptown Submarket, the supply picture is almost nonexistent, with, as I stated last quarter, just 232 units delivering in the City Place Submarket in 2027 and zero currently slated for 2028 and beyond. As of the end of Q1, the apron project remains on track for capitalization this quarter as we have executed construction financing term sheets at accretive levels. We will be running competitive bids to finalize construction pricing concurrently with the financing process during this quarter. Meanwhile, progress on the tower residential design and programming continues in earnest, with an intentional lag behind the apron as we phase the development. We expect to turn our attention to financing the tower in the second half of the year and for sure remain overall bullish on starting this residential project this year as sub-market supply literally falls off of a cliff. Now I'd like to turn the call over to John to discuss our storage and SFR businesses.
Thanks, Matt. Welcome, everyone. I'll speak first about Next Point Storage Partners, its operating trends, and its prospects moving forward, and then I'll move to Vinebrook Homes. On the occupancy front at Next Point Storage, December 31, 2025, our physical occupancy was 91.7%, which was down 1.6% from September 30, 2025, where occupancy was at 93.3%. This loss of occupancy was due to ordinary seasonality and was consistent with occupancy losses across the industry. Despite the decline, our physical occupancy continued to rank among the highest in the self-storage industry as our dense urban submarkets continued to produce consistent need for storage space. Our occupancy at December 31, 2025 outperformed by 200 basis points, the industry average year-end occupancy of 89.7%. As of yesterday, our physical occupancy was 92.2%, a 50 basis point gain since the beginning of the year, and roughly the same as our occupancy the same time last year. We believe this gives us a consistent base as we move into rental season, which begins next month tomorrow. Moving on to rental rates, sector-wide rental rates continued to slowly increase during the fourth quarter of last year. Our portfolio's in-place rate on December 31 was $20.17 per foot, which was up 7.1% from $18.83 at the beginning of 2025, and up 1.8% from $19.82 at September 30, 2025. Our average asking rate increased 1.7% from $17.89 at December 31, 24, to $18.19 at December 31, 2025. Growth in our average web rate, which is the rate charged to customers who find units and rent via the internet, comprising the majority of our customers, was consistent with this theme of overall increasing rates, with the average web rate increasing 4.1 percent from $11.43 at December 31, 2024 to $11.90 at December 31, 2025. We expect these rate increases along with stable occupancy to support a 5% to 6% increase in same-store revenue for 2026. Moving to revenue and net operating income, in our December calls a few months ago, we anticipated net operating income for the full year 2025 to be in the range of $53.2 million to $53.7 million, or approximately $53.5 million at the midpoint, which was a 7.9% increase over 2024 net operating income. As it turned out, net operating income for the year ended up right at the $53.5 million dollar midpoint, and by contrast, the sector average same-store NOI growth for the publicly listed self-storage rates for last year was a negative 1.2 percent. We feel really good about our outperformance there. Our portfolio is the youngest portfolio of size in the storage sector, and our location in large, dense urban submarkets provides a consistent demand funnel made up of people who have to rent storage because they don't have enough space. This makes us somewhat immune from the continued slow housing market that is weighing on demand of other self-storage operators who own a larger percentage of properties where demand is not as consistent and more dependent on people moving. Moving to the supply picture, development remains limited due to high borrowing costs, land scarcity, significant inflation in material costs, and permitting challenges, as well as a continued weak housing market that is weighed on self-storage demand. The expected new supply for 2026-2027 is below the 3% threshold, generally considered to be the need to maintain equilibrium. And that number is projected to fall even lower as you get later in 2027. This supply dynamic likely supports continued rental rate growth in 2026. We continue to believe we have the preeminent urban storage portfolio in the United States that will continue to outperform our peers and command a premium valuation upon any liquidity event. Now turning to Vinebrook Homes. 2025 was a really good year for Vinebrook. Our occupancy has held steady near 95%. Our NOI margin on our same home portfolio was 64.5% for the year, a 260 basis point improvement over 2024, and consistent with our publicly traded peers. For the year, our rental rates on renewal leases increased 5.8%, and rental rates on new leases increased 4.3%, resulting in a blended rental rate increase of 5.5% for 2025, which was meaningfully higher than our larger publicly traded peers. Same-home net operating income increased 6.7% year over year, again, significantly outperforming our peers. For the year ended December 31, revenue for the Vinebrook Homes Portfolio was $328.2 million, a $9.7 million or 3.1% increase over revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024. This was achieved despite our selling 884 homes since December 31, 2024. forth. The revenue increase has been driven by strong rent increases, as I just mentioned. As we had previously reported in our December call, by the end of October, we had transitioned all 20,000-plus Bindbrook Homes to the Evergreen Residential Property Management Platform, and by the end of the year, we had completed the personnel transition. My view is that the transition went as well as we could have possibly hoped. Data was seamlessly transferred. We're getting very good property-level reporting from Evergreen. Our residents experienced no loss of service and are now connected with Evergreen via a portal on the website, and Evergreen is processing all service tickets and handling all turnover. The vast majority of historical Vinebrook employees have either gone to work for Evergreen, giving us management continuity, or have moved to other jobs. We continue to pursue initiatives to reduce general and administrative expense. We expect in excess of $15 million of G&A expense savings once the Evergreen transition is completed, which we expect to happen this quarter. We have a chance to capture more savings as Evergreen continues to increase the scale of its management business, giving us more purchasing power for goods and services that we pay for as part of property operations. Looking ahead on the investment front, we have decided to sell 15 to 20 percent of our legacy scattered site portfolio and reinvest the proceeds primarily into new homes and built to rent communities. In 2025, as I just stated, we sold 884 homes in one-off transactions through the Multiple Listing Service at prices largely consistent with our internal valuations. The homes we have sold have been, and those that we plan to sell in the future, are lower-yielding homes in markets that we believe have the risk of stagnant growth and lower yields into the future. Over the past two and a half years, we have fortified the Vinebrook balance sheet, reducing leverage, decreasing our interest rate, and extending maturities until the end of the decade. As part of that fortification, we were able to procure a $500 million acquisition line of credit from J.P. Morgan to fund built-to-rent acquisitions. The intent is to pay down the acquisition line through the sale of homes to which I just referred, making our BTR strategy leverage neutral to leverage positive. To date, we have purchased three stabilized BTR communities and have funded a portion of two forward sale BTR communities, investing approximately $100 million in these BTR communities. The BTR homes are higher-yielding assets and higher-growth markets that are easier to manage. Our target is about 150 basis point improvement over the margins or over the yields on homes that we're selling, and we're hitting those targets as we make these BTR investments. We have invested in BTR communities in two of our better-performing legacy markets, Indianapolis and Kansas City. as well as in new markets, such as Nashville. The enhanced yields from replacing older, high-maintenance housing stock with new, lower-maintenance and higher-yielding BTR homes should, over time, be highly accretive to NOI and to shareholder value, as does BTR communities stabilize. As many of you are probably aware just from watching the news or reading the press, the president has challenged Congress to adopt legislation to make housing more affordable. Congress has entered the fray, and a couple of weeks ago, the Senate overwhelmingly passed a comprehensive new housing bill entitled the 21st Century Road to Housing Act. While most of the bill is designed to provide incentives to the private sector and to states and cities to increase supply, Section 901 of the bill imposes on large institutional investors who are defined as entities or groups of related entities that own more than 350 homes, a ban on future acquisitions of single-family homes for rent. There are a number of important exceptions to the ban. Newly constructed homes, purpose-built to rent homes, homes purchased and renovated to meet local occupancy codes, which is a strategy that Vinebrook has successfully pursued in the past, homes placed in a rent-to-own program, and purchases from other institutional investors. For the most part, the Senate bill allows us to continue to conduct business as we are currently conducting it. Currently, the Senate bill is before the House of Representatives, which will either accept and pass the bill as presented by the Senate or demand a conference to reconcile the bill with its own housing bill, the Housing for the 21st Century Act. While handicapping anything in Washington is a fool's game, we are hearing that the House is strongly leaning toward demanding a conference, and one of their primary aims in the conference will be to make sure any bill that ultimately passes and is signed by the president does not contain material impediments to capital flowing into new construction or any other aspect of the housing industry that increases the supply of housing. We've been deeply involved in the industry's lobbying efforts and feel confident that we are well positioned to continue operating in our current manner. Over the past two years, we've fortified Vinebrook's balance sheet and created capital to allocate to build-to-rent communities. We have an active pipeline and the ability to move quickly to close on good opportunities. To the extent uncertainty coming out of Washington disrupts the market, we are confident we can take advantage of those opportunities with our nimbleness and allocating capital, as well as NextPoint's overall expertise in the housing market and ability to creatively close deals in all kinds of markets. We fully expect the operating margins of Vinebrook to stay materially the same in the 63 to 64 percent range after we've fully transitioned to Evergreen. However, we expect a material reduction in the $15 to $20 million range of G&A expenses during 2026. We've already achieved approximately $5 million of savings on technology costs, and we'll achieve more technology savings as certain expensive IT contracts expire better shortly after year-end, and Evergreen absorbs the cost of that technology. Finally, we continue to evaluate liquidity options for Vinebrook shareholders, of which we are the largest. We are considering reinstating redemptions of Vinebrook shares in the second half of the year at a level of one-half of one percent of outstanding shares per quarter, which would be approximately $10 million of redemption capacity. We are also looking at other accretive ways to provide additional liquidity to shareholders who want out. Finally, we continue to study a possible listing of Vinebrook shares at such time as market conditions would allow for a fair trading price and reasonable trading volume. The Vinebrook board continues to be very focused on maximizing value of the Vinebrook shares. With that, I'll turn it to Paul to talk about NRF.
Thanks, Sean. As of today, NXVT holds shares and OP units of NextPoint Real Estate Finance worth approximately $93 million in net asset value, or approximately $1.90 per NXVT share on a standalone basis. As a reminder, NREFs are publicly traded, mortgage-read, focused on originating and or purchasing credit investments in our key operating verticals of residential, both SFR multifamily, self-storage, and life science. NREF reported fourth quarter net income to common shareholders of $13.6 million, or $0.52 per share. Cash available for distribution was $12.2 million, or $0.53 per share. Moving to the portfolio and book value. Book value per share rose to $19.10, reflecting continued strong performance in our underlying assets. The portfolio totals approximately $1.2 billion across 92 investments, diversified across multifamily, single-family rental, and life sciences. Importantly, NREF remains one of the lowest levered mortgage rates in the space at just about 0.92 times debt-to-equity, which provides us flexibility and downside protection. The stock is trading at a 30% discount to both value, creating an attractive entry point relative to intrinsic value. Next, a few comments on capital allocation and activity. During the quarter, we refinanced the $36.5 million unsecured notes with a $45 million unsecured offering at 7.875%, a modest step up from the 7.5% notes we issued in October of 2020 when we were in a near-zero rate environment. The new notes carry a two-year term with prepayment flexibility, which positions us in a declining rate environment. We're pleased with this execution and look forward to terming out the remaining unsecured notes in the first half of 26. Lastly, subsequent quarter end, we entered into a re-REMIC transaction on our FREMP 2017 K-62 D-B piece with Mizuho. Under this structure, we are selling the BPs and purchasing the horizontal risk retention tranche, which represents 5.8% of the re-REMIC. This transaction reduces our mark-to-market repo financing by $75.2 million, and our debt-to-equity ratio would decrease to 0.83 times debt-to-equity. And the HRR tranche carries an expected yield of 18.5%. On a go-forward basis, the interest expense savings and the reinvestment capacity are expected to be $0.30 to $0.34 per share accreted to annual CAD. Review this as a compelling example of actively managing our BP's portfolio to unlock value and improve our capital efficiency. And lastly, our future outlook and guidance. Looking forward, we expect earnings available for distribution of $0.40 on the midpoint per share in Q1, with CAD at $0.50 per share. With our conservative leverage profile and attractive valuation, we believe NRAP is well-positioned to sustain its dividend and drive meaningful long-term value creation. Additionally, our affiliates and legacy investors maintain a significant ownership stake alongside shareholders, reinforcing alignment of interests. Now I'd like to pass it back to Matt.
Thank you, Paul. Again, as you can see, we're making operational progress across all of our platforms as we look forward to more liquid transaction market and waning supply in 2026. and beyond. We're also running a variety of processes to monetize any assets that we can at fair market values in this environment. One example continues to be MidWave Wireless, formerly Terrascar Corporation, which remains one of the largest independent wireless spectrum license holders in the United States. The company continues to explore strategic options as it seeks to monetize this investment. We continue to see activity in the sector with spectrum licenses actively trading in the market, which we believe is a positive indicator for potential value realization over the next 12 months. This activity, coupled with our ongoing amortization of preferred stock holdings, will continue to fuel aggressive stock buybacks over the near term. As of our last update, we had repurchased roughly 500,000 shares of common stock at deep discounts to NAV. I'm pleased to report that, in addition to the common stock dividend component of the company's dividend being evaluated by the board, we have ramped repurchase activity to an additional 500,000 shares of common stock in the first quarter of 2026 at an average price of $4.33 per share. We want to make real progress on closing the discount both on this share issuance and stock buyback funds in the first half of 2026 and beyond, while we continue making this operational progress in our key operating verticals. That's all we have today for our prepared remarks. I'd like to again thank everyone for joining today's call and look forward to providing further updates on our progress next quarter. Thank you and goodbye.
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you for joining Humano Disconnect.
SEC periodic report
Filed Mar 31, 2026 · complete as-filed document