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Earnings call · FY2025 Q3
Executive readout · one minute
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Confident
Net tone +62 · low hedging
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4 guided metrics
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| Metric | Period | Guided | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Sales volumes
full year 2025
|
-2% | — | |
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Annual sales volume growth post 2027
post 2027
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1% – 2% | — | |
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Fit to Win benefits by 2027 on a cumulative basis
by 2027 on a cumulative basis
|
$650M | — | |
|
Fit to Win savings
2025
|
$275M – $300M | — |
How the reported period landed and where the business moved.
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Good morning. Thank you for attending today's all eyeglass third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. My name is Jerry and I will be your moderator today. All lines will be muted during the presentation portion of the call with an opportunity for questions and answers at the end. If you would like to ask a question, press star 1 on your telephone keypad. I would now like to pass the conference over to our host, Chris Manu, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Jerry, and welcome everyone to the OIGlass Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Our discussion today will be led by Gordon Hardy, our CEO, and John Hodrick, our CFO. Following prepared remarks, we will host a Q&A session. Presentation materials for this call are available on the company's website. Please review the safe harbor comments and disclosure of our use of non-GAAP financial measures included in those materials. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Gordon, who will start on slide three.
Good morning, everybody, and thank you for your interest in OIGlass. Today, we will review our third quarter performance, examine recent market trends, and highlight the progress we have made on our transformation journey. We will also share our improved outlook for 2025 and an early view on key business drivers for further improvement in 2026. Before we begin, I want to acknowledge the dedication and determination of the entire OIT. Your commitment, teamwork, and execution are the drivers behind our ongoing transformation. Last night, we reported third quarter adjusted earnings of 48 cents per share, delivering strong results that exceeded both last year's performance and our own initial plans. Our top line remained stable, supported by higher average selling prices and favorable effects, even as overall consumer demand remained subdued. We saw revenue growth in non-alcoholic beverages, food, and RTDs, while beer and wine experienced declines due to softer consumer demand. Importantly, the execution of our strategic initiatives is leading to a higher quality of revenue as we strip out waste and inefficiencies, expand in growing categories, and exit some unprofitable business. As a result, segment operating profit rose by more than 60% year-over-year, and margins are up a robust 570 basis points, propelled by significant benefits from our strategic program and increased production levels following last year's inventory reduction. Bid2Win contributed another $75 million in the third quarter and $220 million year-to-date. We now expect to surpass our original 2025 savings target, and this program is strengthening our competitiveness, enhancing performance, and enabling durable profit improvement. Despite ongoing macroeconomic headwinds, our strategy is delivering results. We have raised our full year 2025 guidance and now expect adjusted earnings per share to nearly double versus 2024. 4. Momentum is building, and we anticipate continued growth in adjusted earnings and free cash flow in 2026 as we advance towards the target set out at our research investor day. Let's now move to page 4. As we review our quarterly results, it is important to consider current trends within the broader market context. Packaging dynamics are evolving. Short-term cyclical pressures, including inflation, consumer price resistance, and elevated supply chain inventories, have temporarily dampened demand. However, we anticipate these headwinds will ease over time. Longer-term factors, such as lower per capita alcohol consumption and increased substrate competition, will persist in certain markets. Yet, these challenges are expected to be offset by growing interest in premiumization and sustainability. Furthermore, rising consumer health awareness is driving growth in no-low alcohol beverages, as well as food and water. These trends suggest a more balanced and sustained demand for glass over the long term. In the interim, our focus remains on eliminating waste and inefficiencies, building higher quality revenue streams, delivering a more profitable portfolio, and positioning the business for future shifts in consumer demand. OI has navigated market volatility effectively, maintaining stable net sales in recent years. As we address near-term cyclical pressures, we are carefully balancing price and volume to achieve a relatively stable top line. For the full year, we now expect pricing to be flat and sales volumes to be down about 2%, which is consistent with softer consumer demand. Despite this, our Fit to Win initiative is delivering a higher quality business mix and strengthening our competitive position, as evidenced by improved margins and segment profits. Looking ahead, we anticipate OI will achieve 1% to 2% annual sales volume growth post-2027 as markets stabilize, strategic initiatives enhance our cost position, and we drive profitable growth in the next phase of our strategy. Let's now turn to page 5 to review the progress of our Fit2Win initiative, which I'm pleased to report is ahead of schedule. Fit2Win is significantly reducing costs across the enterprise, as well as optimizing our network and value chain to enhance competitiveness and support future growth. In the third quarter, we achieved another $75 million in savings with benefits of $220 million through the first nine months of the year, well ahead of our initial plans. With this momentum, we expect 2025 savings will range between $275 and $300 million, which exceeds our current year gold so we are well on our way to at least 650 million of benefits by 2027 on a cumulative basis we are making excellent progress in phase a which focuses on streamlining sgna costs and initial network optimization actions we've already secured 100 million dollars in sgna savings in 2025 and we are on track to reach our three-year target ahead of schedule our network optimization is also moving quickly. We have communicated the closure of 13% of capacity to align supply with demand. 8% is now complete, and all remaining actions should be completed by early next year. Phase B centers on transforming our entire value chain. The first wave of our total organization effectiveness rollout across 15 plants is completed, and each location has met or exceeded expectations. The second wave, covering another 15 plants, is in progress and we should complete the remaining plants by the end of next year with benefits continuing into 2020-27 and beyond. Our teams are driving strong results in procurement and energy reduction, further boosting savings and resilience. New supplier agreements are set to enhance productivity and competitiveness over the next three years. Overall, the Fit to Win program is delivering results faster than planned. We are well ahead of our targets for 2025 and are positioned to unlock even greater value through 2027, despite challenging market conditions. Now I'll hand it over to John, who will start with a review of our third quarter results on page six.
Thanks, Gordon, and good morning, everyone. Let's begin with our third quarter top line results. net sales held firm at approximately 1.7 billion dollars with modest improvements in gross price especially in the americas favorable fx provided a helpful tailwind even as consumer demand remained muted shipments and tons declined by five percent as modest growth in the nab food and rtd categories was more than offset by lower performance in beer and wine keep in mind this This headline figure does not fully reflect underlying trends, as several factors which are not indicative of actual consumption impacted volumes by approximately 3 percentage points. These factors include a major capital project commissioning in Europe, which we discussed during last quarter's call, inventory correction in the Mexico and North America beer category related to changes in U.S. trade and immigration policies, and mixed changes as we exited some unprofitable business lines consistent with our focus on increasing economic profit as well as the ongoing trend towards container light weighting excluding these factors shipments were down about two percent which is more in line with softer underlying consumer consumption trends importantly overall volumes improved over the course of the quarter and shipments were nearly flat with the prior year in september while while revenues were stable margins improved significantly and oi delivered third quarter adjusted earnings of 48 cents per share exceeding both last year's results and our own plans this achievement was driven by favorable net price significantly lower cost thanks to fit to win initiatives and higher production levels despite softer sales volumes a lower tax rate also benefited the bottom line overall ois delivering delivered strong third quarter results outperforming expectations through discipline execution cost reductions and continued momentum from our strategic program, positioning the company for ongoing success. Moving to segment profit on page 7. The momentum is clear as segment operating profit improved more than 60% from 2024 with robust gains in both the Americas and Europe. In the Americas, segment operating profit rose nearly 60%, propelled by higher net price and continued fit-to-win benefits. Buyers were down 7%. We believe underlying consumer consumption represented half of this decline, while specific factors drove the other half, namely lapping new business wins in 2024, inventory adjustments in the beer value chain across North America and Mexico, as well as mixed chains as we exited some unprofitable business. In Europe, segment operating profits surged by 70%, reflecting contributions from strategic initiatives and higher production following last year's inventory reductions net price was a headwind and sales volumes dipped due to a major capital project startup importantly volumes were about flat excluding this event in summary segment operating profits increased significantly with strong gains in both the americas and europe reflecting the continued success and disciplined execution of our key initiatives now let's turn to page eight for our updated business outlook Looking ahead, our outlook for 2025 has improved. Given our strong year-to-date performance and the momentum of Fit to Win, we have raised our full-year earnings guidance. We now expect adjusted earnings in the range of $1.55 to $1.65 per share, nearly double our 2024 results. This meaningful increase reflects stronger initiative benefits and better net price, partially offset by slightly lower sales volume free cash flow is projected at 150 to 200 million dollars in improvement of approximately 300 million dollars versus last year and closer to 400 million dollar increase prior to restructuring costs although the adjusted earnings outlook has improved our free cash flow guidance remains unchanged due to higher than expected restructuring opportunities in the settlement of a legacy environmental liability which together totaled more than 25 million dollars Higher restructuring as a result of OI's accelerated network optimization initiatives, which are expected to deliver benefits in 2026 and beyond. Excluding these temporary and elevated charges, our free cash flow is nearing the 5% of sales benchmark, which is our 2027 target. We successfully refinanced our bank credit agreement last month at Favoral Economics, which also extends out maturities. Leverage improved over the last quarter, and we continue to expect our leverage ratio will land in the mid-threes by year end. Despite a challenging macroeconomic backdrop, we are executing effectively, and our self-help initiatives are delivering results that exceed our original expectations. As a result, we are increasing our full-year adjusted earnings per share guidance and expect this positive momentum to continue in the next year. Now let's turn to page 9 for our early perspectives on key business drivers for 2026. looking ahead to 2026 we anticipate continued momentum with higher adjusted earnings and free cash flow as we advance towards our 2027 objectives outlined at investor day revenue is expected to remain stable or increase modestly supported by better mix fairly consistent sales volume and higher gross price reflecting the pass through of 2025 inflation this aligns with our strategy to maintain a stable top line while executing fit to win to further strengthen our competitive position and lay the groundwork for profitable growth after 2027. Adjusted earnings are projected to improve, fueled by another year of strong initiative benefits. These gains should more than offset the impact of lower net price as we reset favorable energy contracts in Europe, which are expiring at the end of this year. Free cash flow is expected to rise, driven by increased earnings and disciplined capital allocation. Cash restructuring costs should be at or below 2025 levels as we complete key initiatives by mid-2026. Our balance sheet should continue to improve with financial leverage in the low threes by year in 2026. With strong execution, ongoing transformation and clear strategic direction, OI is well positioned to deliver lasting value to all stakeholders. Now back to Gordon on page 10.
Thanks, John. As we wrap up today's call, I want to emphasize the significant progress OI has achieved and the solid competitive foundation we are establishing for the future. Our strong year-to-date performance, driven by the ongoing success of our Fit2Win program, has enabled us to raise the 2025 adjusted earnings guidance once again. Looking ahead, we anticipate continued growth in both earnings and free cash flow in 2026. We are delivering on the commitments made at our recent investor day, maintaining a stable top line, enhancing our quality of revenue, and advancing our transformation despite the challenging environment. Our efforts to realign our network and supply chain are supporting mixed improvement and positioning us for long-term profitable growth. Our cost transformation initiatives are generating substantial savings and increasing our competitiveness, and we have streamlined our organization to be more agile and focused. As a result, margins and earnings are up, free cash flow is increasing, and our balance sheet continues to strengthen. Most importantly, we are executing well, building momentum, and expect to create sustainable value for our shareholders. Thank you for your continued support and confidence in Hawaii. We look forward to building on this momentum and achieving even greater success together. We're now happy to take any questions you may have.
Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by 1 on your telephone keypad. If for any reason you would like to remove your question, press star followed by 2. Again, to ask a question, press star 1. As a reminder, if you are using a speakerphone, please remember to pick up your handset before asking a question. We will pause here briefly as questions are registered. Thank you. We will now take our first question from Ganshan Panjambi from Baird. Please go ahead.
Thank you, operator. Good morning, everybody. You know, Gordon, as you think about the demand environment, good morning, you know, as you sort of think about the demand environment and, you know, the variability we've seen over the years, et cetera, how much of this most recent decline is influencing your view as it relates to what's actually a cyclical decline versus some sort of secular change because of change in consumer preferences and so on and so forth?
You know, because if you go back to 2019, volumes are down roughly mid-teens. you're lining your capacity down by pretty much a comparable amount and I'm just curious as to what you think is the right baseline for volumes going forward or is this the new starting point yeah thanks Ganshan you know it's um it's quite a dynamic demand environment and you know depending on where what segments and categories you look at and what part of the world there they're probably different dynamics I think it's fair to say that beer uh you know across the board and wine across the board are you know declining and certainly we've seen that in most of the markets but within beer there's a there's a dynamic where premium beers are showing some growth but it's mid-tier and maybe lower equity brands if I can put it that way losing share to private label so So there definitely is a piece around beer and wine that we see because consumers are challenged, right? You know, I hear that. I'm in the markets a lot. I hear that quite a bit. What we are seeing, though, is a growth in non-alcoholic beers. And interestingly, you know, we're hearing in different markets that up to 60 percent of, you know, new users of the non-alcoholic category are Gen Zers. So they're coming into the beer category via non-alcoholic ranges. So I think there's a piece there, quite a large chunk around beer that's, I would say, cyclical. And, you know, then the shift, you know, people, health and wellness, you know, accessing beer through low and non-alcoholic beverages, which I think will kind of grow. So I very much think we're still, you know, in the midst of the implications of COVID and how it disrupted supply chains and behaviors and the stages that with particularly Gen Zers enter different kind of categories. So I think there's very much a part in beer which I think is cyclical. Wine, I think some of it is structural. you know younger consumers what you hear is is finding it difficult to access wine you know it can be a complicated category to to access with different you know appellations and you know labels and so on but what what we do here is the wine industry saying okay how do we how do we make it easier for for for consumers to access the category so I think there's some work done being done there that you know should should help that uh over over time you know the way the way we look at it um gansham is as i i've mentioned before we we we have um about 1.7 times the the volume of our our nearest competitors and in this period of kind of volatile um demand you know i i think the the the the most clear path for us to create value is to increase the profitability and the returns and the cash on the volumes that we have um and and really strengthen the portfolio and and strengthen the core business and generate higher returns and higher cash flow from what we have um and and shedding volume that doesn't deliver economic profit or cash for us and you You know, you'll see that start to come through in the results where volumes are down, but margins are up very significantly. Cash will be up significantly for the year. So, you know, what is the right base? I'm, you know, that's, you know, that's a fixed $64,000 question. But what I am clear on is that we are only focused on volume that delivers economic profit for us. Now, we are in, you know, that early stage of that three horizon strategy where we said, you know, we got to get fit in order that we access growth. There is volume available in the market if you wanted to chase really low margins and give up a whole bunch of terms that will destroy cash. That's not our game plan. So we are getting fit in order that when the market turns, then we can access the kind of growth. And we have a very clear view on, you know, the kind of growth we're looking for, what categories, what segments, what markets, what customers. That's very clear to us internally. But there's a timing issue. We've got to work through the fit to win, get much more competitive than we have been when the market turns, access that growth. As we said, going forward, just to close out, we would then expect, you know, 1% to 2% volume growth that would be, you know, EP accretive and cash accretive for us going forward post-2027. So that's a long answer, Gansham, but that's kind of how we look at it, yeah.
Okay, just one quick follow-up. On the 13% capacity cut, how does that skew between the regions? And I'll turn it over. Thank you.
Hey, Gottscham, this is John. On the balance, there's probably a little bit more going on in the Americas than in Europe. But what I would say is where we stand right now, the Americas is substantially advanced, and the final stages are going to be over in Europe.
Fantastic. Thank you.
Thank you. We will now take our next question from Josh Spector from UBS. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Good morning. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about the volume kind of cadence and the results in the quarter. I think you explained a decent amount of it, particularly within the Americas, between some of the beer headwinds in the quarter and the exits that you guys did. And just wondering if you could bucket those two pieces apart a little bit for us. So should we expect more exits on a go-forward basis? Does that matter for profitability since there's maybe some offset there? So just helping to pick that apart would be helpful to start.
Sure. So, you know, if you take a look at the 5%, I'd break it out about 2% is just software consumer demand, you know, and consumers being, you know, more challenged, I think, and kind of price resistance in the market. And then, you know, between network optimization and a deliberate decision to exit volume that, you know, did not make sense for us from an EP point of view, and then also some very deliberate strategies around lightweighting, that's about 3%. So the underlying, we think, is about 2%, right? And we probably see that holding to year end.
Yeah, I would I would add just looking at the numbers here, Josh, the exiting of unprofitable business probably was one percentage point of that three percentage point that we would say is not specifically due to consumer consumption trends. and that will episodically continue for the business. I think we flagged this back at Investor Day. There's a low single-digit come mid-single-digit kind of portfolio of our business that is deeply economic profit negative. And we are either going to raise prices in that market or we're going to exit that business. And that's the process that we're going through as we go over the next year or so.
Thanks. I appreciate that. And I also appreciate some of the kind of early overview here of 26. I don't know if it's too early to frame this in a real quantifiable way, but I guess the easy math that you've kind of laid out is, you know, you expect at least a couple hundred million benefit of cost savings. You guys earlier sighed that the energy contract reset. I think it was 130 million. I guess, correct me if I'm wrong. I guess if you think volumes are flat, is the bogey that you should have earnings up 70 million in that context if we go sideways from here? or are there other ways that you would think about puts and takes we should be adding?
You know, one is we probably don't want to get into quantification just yet. You know, we expect a nice increase next year as we move our way towards that $1.45 million in 2027. Of course, we have to absorb that energy credit reset, energy reset. That number, as we mentioned back even in Investor Day, is about $150 million. dollars that still remains to be um you know you know uh very much in line with that right now so as we look at the puts and takes of the business kind of stable volume we'll have gross price up uh against a low single digit kind of normalizing inflation uh but then we'll absorb the energy uh you know reset as we mentioned that mark to market and then very robust uh continued robust fit to win benefits but we'll come back at the end of the year with quantification But we expect a nice bump next year.
Okay, thank you.
Thank you. We will now take our next question from Francisco Ruiz from BNP. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, and thank you for taking my question. I have to, if I may. The first one is on the restructuring. It's a kind of follow-up on the previous question. Out of the 13% capacity reduction that you are aiming, how much is already announced? and how much is spending apart from the French announcement that you made at the beginning of the year. The second question is in America, more specifically in Brazil, with a very bad quarter in terms of volumes overall. Some of your competitors are increasing capacity. How do you see the area in the coming quarters?
Yeah, Francisco, this is John. I'll touch base and cover the first one. on the restructuring is if we go back to 2024 we were carrying about 13 percent excess capacity and that was costing us about 250 million dollars of unabsorbed fixed costs we have since then announced closure of 13 percent of our capacity which would ultimately get us substantially out of that fixed cost absorption right now as of the end of third quarter we have completed eight percentage points of that 13 percent and as mentioned earlier that is substantially more skewed to the to the americas we have a remaining five percent left to go which will be done by the early part of next year and that is going to be skewed towards europe including what we've announced in france uh we we anticipate uh restructuring charges this year of of around 140 to 150 million dollars a little bit on the high end of what we originally anticipated because we're moving faster in certain areas, but we anticipate a carryover of restructuring costs next year that it will be at or below that level, and we should be out of that exit range of that cash activity by mid-2026, so really the fundamental cash flow, moving momentum going forward in the back half of the year will be better.
Yeah, Francisco, good morning. With regard to to brazil i was actually in brazil a couple of weeks ago and and um spent spent a week touring the market and meeting with customers um you know a couple of on on the positive side you know we're seeing very strong growth in in non-alcoholic beverages so waters and juices in brazil you know we're we're seeing strong growth in in wine uh in in brazil and and strong growth and spirits where where the big declines came were were in beer and i know it's easy to blame the weather but everywhere i went people spoke about it being you know probably the coldest winter in in 30 years in brazil and that's definitely had an impact on on consumption yeah um and and also you know people being being challenged um in terms of spending power and you know, a bit of trading down going on in beer, for sure. What we are seeing is customers launching, you know, new offerings to the market. There were also some sizable price increases went into the market that impacted volumes, I think, in the short term. And then on the food side for us, you know, we saw a decline in volume that was very largely driven by raw material shortages you know particularly kind of olives and that impacted our business but that but the the the main piece around beer was it was largely a weather driven uh and some you know mid mid to high single digit pricing going in uh on shelves which i i think um you know put a bit of pressure on on on consumption that's starting to sort of come back and you know we're obviously heading into the summer months in Brazil and would expect, you know, better volumes going forward.
Thank you very much. Yes, another question. I don't know if you have mentioned, but as you did in other quarters, can you give some idea of the current trading in October?
Yeah, I would say this. We take a look at, you know, going back to what Gordon had indicated, you know, we think the full year is going to be down about 2 percent now, consistent with that. underlying consumer consumption. Fourth quarter is kind of playing out in that low single digit territory. So, you know, nothing particularly new against the consumer consumption trends.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you. We will now take our next question from Mike Roxland from True East. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you, Gordon, John, Chris, for taking my questions. And congrats on a short quarter and a tough environment. Hi, can you hear me?
Yes.
Oh, perfect. Just wanted to follow up on the pruning of unprofitable business. I realize you mentioned in response to an early question that in the Americas, that amounted to about 1%. Can you comment on what that was in Europe? Because when I look at some of your peers, your peers had volumes that increased low single digits. Your European volumes declined 4%. So I'm just wondering how much of that volume declined in Europe. was you guys walking away from a profitable business which your peers then possibly picked up versus, let's say, underlying consumer weakness?
Yeah, Micah, you know, as we had indicated, overall the number, you know, the shipments were down about 3% in Europe overall. We attribute that substantially to that major project that was underway. We talked about that last quarter, you know, it was primarily in the spirits category. So that was the biggest impact. Yes, we were walking away from some business there, but I think it was more skewed towards that major project.
Yeah. And just to add a bit of colour on Europe for us, Mike, you know, we kind of look at it in probably three or three parts. You know, Southern Europe was very strong for us, actually, and, you know, strong growth in all categories. And, you know, particularly, you know, waters, food, RTDs, you know, in Western Europe, you know, we were impacted a bit by wine, you know, with wine exports down and spirits, you know, some of the French spirits not picking up yet, you know, in terms of shipments to either the U.S. or to China. northern europe was was was was good was strong for us across food and spirits and and beer um and um and then as as john said you know we we um we we had that commissioning which was you know slower than we had anticipated so um yeah we're we're we're pretty happy where we are in europe given given the context there um we're um we're very focused on improving the profitability of the volumes we have, and we're not chasing volume just for the sake of volume, and we're being very disciplined around that. As I said, there is volume out there that can, you know, destroy your margins and eat your cash, and that's not our game plan.
One thing to add, Mike, on the question about the walking away from unprofitable business, and you can see it in our revenue and earnings recs is you know yes the the the revenue is down as a result but the decremental margins on on the the lower volumes were half of what you would normally expect so you you see us walking away from unprofitable business and it's very visible in the in the bottom line performance of the business got it great uh great call really appreciate it and just one uh one follow-up just wanted to ask you about the cost spread to aluminum cans and you know given where aluminum prices are today in the U.S., you know, where does the spread currently stand relative to the 25%
you cited at your investor day? And do you think you could gain share next year if aluminum remains elevated and as hedges, aluminum hedges roll off? And I also realize it's early stages, can you comment on how much your actions thus far have reduced the cost spread to cans? Thank you.
Yeah, Mike, I'll kick off of the first part of that is if you take a look at the elevated costs of aluminum right now, we would say that that has moved that cost differential, for example, in the U.S., which was between 25% and 30%, more into that zone where we believe that historically glass can compete well, which is 15% or lower premium to aluminum. So it's early days, obviously, as things flush through in the system, but that's what we're seeing as far as the competitive position of the product.
Yeah. And then, Mike, as you said, you know, and I think as we said in our investor day, you know, we can't be reliant on the price of aluminum to be competitive to cans. We've got to find our own path there, you know, to 15 percent or less spread between cans and glass, which we are focused on. But it does give us a bit of extra time if aluminum prices rise. But, you know, we've got to get there, irrespective of where aluminum is, you know, over the journey between now and 2027. Thank you. But I just suppose as a closeout on that, you know, the closer we are and the more competitive we are, then the more choice our customers have in which substrate to use and indeed, you know, consumers, you know, which one they choose on shelf.
Thank you. We will now take our next question from George Stafford from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everybody. How are you? Thanks for the details. Congratulations on the progress and also on the decremental margin. It was a nice job this last quarter, guys. Three questions. I'll ask them in sequence for time. First of all, if we go to slide seven and your, if you will, your bridging or waterfall chart. On the items that were controllable, where did you perform best and where did you perform least well relative to the increase in your guidance for the year? Related question, I remember from last quarter there are some operations that you were studying when and how you might be able to close, restructure, but there were some timing factors that determined whether that would wind up remaining on the book, so to speak, in terms of downtime or whether you could actually move it to non-operating and restructure and potentially have a better result. How did that play out? Is that still playing out? Is it still downtime? And then the last question, as we look to 2026, recognizing, again, there's a lot of water that still needs to flow under the bridge. We get it. It would suggest, given that you are at least expecting good results for next year, good being defined by up earnings or up cash flow, that at least your initial commercial discussions with customers on pricing reset is going favorably. Can you talk about where that process stands earlier than normal, later than normal? Any qualitative commentary would be helpful. Thank you, guys, and good luck in the quarter.
Yeah, I might take the last question first, George, if you don't mind. I mean, we're heading into that season. You know, as John said, we would expect sort of gross pricing to probably be up here, you know, capacities, you know, are tight, but, you know, it's early days, yes. But, you know, we're focused on being very, you know, disciplined in terms of, you know, improving the profitability of the volume we have. you know, anything that doesn't make economic sense for us in any contract negotiations going forward, you know, we would shift that out of the business and dedicate our assets to that volume that is delivering the kind of margins and cash targets we have.
Yeah, George, and to the other questions as far as, you know, what changed in performance in the quarter, and then as we look to the guidance going forward, obviously fit to win and the cost performance is exceeding our expectations. We increased our full year guidance of that by $25 to $50 million for the full year. At the same token, you'll also see that net price has been positive relative to what we thought going into the year, and that has offset some of the softer sales volumes that we have. So when we look at it, the commercial performance net-net of price and volume is right where we expected it overall, a little bit different componentry, but really the driver of increased performance in the quarter, expectation of the fourth quarter better performance, and for the full year is largely driven by fit-to-win improvements, okay? On your next question, you had asked about operations and closures and restructuring opportunities. As you may recall, last quarter we said we had announced about 10% capacity closures. And now we're at about 13%. So we, in fact, have been able to identify those additional three percentage points of capacity that, again, balances supply with demand at the end of the day and are moving towards closing those out on a permanent basis. And again, 8% of it was done at the end of the third quarter. So we were still carrying some restructuring charges, I mean, sorry, LOB or temporary downtime charges through the quarter, and we will through the end of the year, but, you know, once we get out from underneath that in the early part of next year, you know, that'll substantially be out of the system. John, recognizing it's the same pair of pants, it's just different pockets, does that help the fact that you're able to close that incremental capacity, help your guided EBIT and EBITDA for the year, and if so, is there a way to quantify that again thanks and good luck in the quarter yeah yeah i think it is and keep in mind you know when when we talk about our fit to win uh numbers and benefits that that that you know 270 to 300 million dollars this year we are taking an accounting in for their those permanent closures and so as we do better on that and make more progress on that that is driving in part the upside of the performance on on the cost performance in addition to the you know what we call in a phase phase b which is also doing better which is the more accelerated total organization toe projects and and other cost related things so so fit to win is going up because of a lot of things but partly because of the ability to close out capacity now keep in mind the the activity in europe is is going to shift a little bit into the early part of next year from maybe our original expectations but we've been able to pull forward uh some activities into into the americas uh so net net uh you know we're able to to backfill some of that that time very good great great performance good luck guys in the quarter thanks george thanks george thank you we will now take our next question from anthony
adenari from city please go ahead hi good morning this is brian bergmeyer on for anthony thanks for taking the questions um you know just uh following up on maybe the uh the volume discussion from earlier you know you talked about growth in non-alcoholic beer and maybe some younger consumers staying away from wine um just maybe from a high level you know how would you frame kind of oi's ability to maybe capture some of these new product launches um you know do we expect that maybe be more of a 2027 item once you're through fit to win or you may be seeing some early traction with uh you know new product launches and kind of new business um in 25 and
26. yeah we we actually are seeing customers respond to you know um you know consumer softness by you know introducing new products um if if i take a look at our or what we call our our funnel I would say it's up about 8% to 10% this year already, and our total NPD, so that's products that are new to the portfolio or products that are renovated already in the portfolio but might be value engineered or designed to stand out on shelf, they're running at about 10% of our volume. So we absolutely are seeing more NPD, and as we simplify, you know, our plans, as we make them more flexible, and as we work on the strategy of best at both, which we outlined at Investor Day, we're able to respond, you know, more rapidly. We're also in the process of reshaping the NPD organization and ways of working, which was very, you know, I would say was decentralized to a point where it was wasteful. We've now reshaped that, and that new kind of NPD go-to-market organization will kick off in January, and we expect to be able to slash our time to market by at least 50%, so being able to respond more quickly to customers and their marketing teams and bringing products to market. And we see growing demand, you know, for that, particularly as, you know, new consumers kind of maybe are not engaging with older brands in the same way or need for new offerings. uh that's that's absolutely a feature brightening the market and i think we've we've uh you know with our fit to win approach and the organization being much more agile you know working with customers differently and working with suppliers differently where we've been able to you know ramp up the speed uh at which um you know at which uh we we can get to market and again you know um And I think there's kind of a narrative out there that Gen Z are walking away from, you know, certain categories. And we actually see them just coming into categories in a different way. As I said, 60% of, you know, non-alcoholic new consumers are Gen Zers, you know, in many of the markets we're operating in. So there's no question, but NPD is a key part of our value shift strategy as we go forward, because typically we would have better margins for new products.
You know, I would, building on that, I mean, even though the market's been a little soft out there, the NAB, non-alcoholic beverage category in North America and Europe, is up mid-single digits. And so we're seeing a bright spot in those categories. And in particular, waters in that category have been doing very well. And we've gotten some notable wins in those categories. We're seeing people come over to that. And it's interesting, you can even Google it. There's articles out there saying, you know, about how people go out to dinner and they might have had a glass of wine, but now they prefer sparkling water or something like that on their table. So it's an interesting set of dynamics that are playing through that also benefit the business.
Yeah, and I think glass, you know, is very well placed with these younger consumers because across the world, they are far more, you know, sustainability aware and have a very, very positive view on glass packaging. So, we're seeing that come through in these categories as well. So, they're positive trends for us.
Got it. Really appreciate all that detail. really helpful um and then just a quick follow-up john i think you mentioned a charge from an environmental uh liability during the quarter i guess is that a new item um i didn't recall hearing that before but maybe i i missed it um just any detail you can provide on that uh thanks i'll turn it over yeah i mean if you know we've we've flagged this out for the last several quarters and the 10Q, but there was a former subsidiary that had an old paper mill that stopped operation in 1967.
It's now on federal land, and there was a settlement with the federal government, so it's something 58 years old, but we did make a payment on that in the quarter. It was a little bit over $15 million as part of that $25 million-plus number that I was referring to.
Thank you. We will now take our next question from Aaron with one of them from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Great. Thanks for taking my question. Congrats on the progress as well. I guess I just wanted to go back to the volume and understand, you know, maybe some of the cushioning that you have. So I think in the past you've noted that each point of volume is maybe $0.07 in EPS, which we could potentially gross up to maybe $14 million of EBIT, and each point of production is $0.13, which is maybe, I don't know, $0.25 million of EBIT. So, you know, I think you went in the year expecting this year was going to be flattish on volumes. You're up low to mid-singles in the first half. I know you're up 4% in Q1, but it does look like you're now maybe down one on the year or so. Maybe you could end up the year down two or three. So does that kind of imply that you have $40 million to $50 million of EBIT cushion within fit-to-win benefits that's offsetting that greater-than-expected weakness in volumes? Maybe you can just kind of frame out how you're finding extra savings to offset the volume weakness.
Yeah, Runa, I'll take that one. From a commercial performance standpoint, I think we're almost exactly on where we expected going into the year. Okay, so, yes, you know, volumes are down, what we said, about 2% for the year, and that has the cost that you referred to. But also net price has been more favorable than anticipated going into the year. Those two have generally offset each other. Okay, so when you think of the net effect, and Gordon had said in the Prepare Commons, we're really trying to manage these levers between price and volume in a pretty soft environment, right? And so, you know, we're trying to find that balance that provides the best reasonable financial outcome to the business as we try to manage a stable top line. So with those two essentially offsetting each other, really the improvement in the year is fit to win. And that's where, you know, that's driving the upside, and that's driving, you know, this is the second time now that we raise guidance for the year, and it's really driven by the momentum on what we can control.
Yeah, and just as a bit on that, you know, we're – sorry, go ahead.
No, that's fine. Go ahead, Gordon.
Yeah, no. And, you know, as I've said since the outstart, you know, we're focused on, you know, better quality revenue and not chasing what I, you know, call kind of profitless prosperity volume for volume sake. And we really are strengthening the quality of the portfolio we have and improving the returns on the portfolio we have. And you can also see that coming through in, you know, in the margin expansion and obviously seeing it coming through on, you know, on the cash side as well. And that's going to be an ongoing feature for us. Right. You know, really improving the quality of the of the of the revenue we we have going forward.
Great. And then, you know, given this volume performance, do you think you'd have to take, you know, additional downtime as you go into 26? Maybe you can also just update us on inventory levels and especially related to, you know, maybe Europe and some of those wide markets and spirits and areas that you're seeing weakness. And if that, you know, if you do have to take that downtime, again, would you have, you know, other levers to pull on to offset those headwinds?
So, you know, as far as our, you know, currently, I mean, we are balancing supply with demand and we still are carrying some, you know, lack of business downtime. But keep in mind that we did increase our permanent capacity closures, which we anticipate to be done by early part of next year. As a result, we think that we are going to be reasonably balanced between supply and demand once that's done, and it will be substantially out of the LOB category for the business or the temporary downtime category for the business. As we look to the inventory management, I think we ended the third quarter in the low 50s, maybe 52 or 53 days. Our goal is around 50 days this year, which would be about a 15% decrease on a year-over-year basis. you know the softer sales volumes that we're seeing you know right now you know we may end up in the low 50 to low 50 somewhere range but very close to the overall goal that we anticipated yeah thanks i think we have time for one more question thank you so much we will now take our next question from gab hatchet from wells fargo please go ahead gordon john chris good good morning hey hey Gabe how are you I'm well thanks um two questions I guess um looking
at the model and just thinking about kind of how you're you're describing commercially things shaking out the way you wanted competition a little bit different um I know you can't necessarily dictate and manage this quarter to quarter but um price accelerating pretty heavily in the Americas and maybe I think I might know the answer to this but can you parse out for us maybe um the intentional business moves that's flowing through on the mixed side maybe the formulary price adjustments that are flowing through in the Americas and then um intentional price that you're taking in North America if that makes any sense yeah yeah Gabe I can I can take a
stab at that and and gordon can build on if he has the additional additional comments you know our our price you know gross and and um net price you know is obviously softer in the first quarter it's it's better i mean first half of the year and it's better in the second half of the year what you are seeing in the americas is is you know keep in mind for example north america we pass through energy on a monthly or quarterly basis and so uh you know through the paf process so you pick up a little bit more there. I would also say the Americas, you know, from a capacity standpoint, is probably in the mid to high 90s as far as capacity utilization. So it's a pretty, pretty, you know, pretty tight environment in the Americas overall as a backdrop compared to Europe that is probably mid 90s to low 90s to give you just a relative comparison. But keep in mind, Europe should improve as is a number of different capacity closures are completed.
And then on the on the portfolio piece, Gabe, I mean, we have a very clear sort of process for how we make those decisions. And, you know, I think in previous calls and certainly on Investor Day, we we mentioned that we have visibility now in the business right down to skew level on what the economic profit is by skew in effect. um and i also mentioned that you know there's a bunch of things you can do internally to improve the economic profit of a of a particular product or a particular range and and you know we we we take a look at those and we say okay we can get that done does that make sense for us um even having done that um or even if we were to do that on some ranges we would still need you know significant price increases from from the customers and you know some some customers would say yeah okay you know the price and quality and and what you give and service and so on is worth it um some say no yeah that's that's not for me and then we we make a view you know that that that piece goes out because what we find as well is those pieces of business add a lot of complexity into our supply chain um you know a lot there's a lot of hidden costs in there as well that can be um and you know it it it brings complexity to the lines and and as part of our operations strategy of you know best at both um that relies on us you know having you know less you know complexity particularly on the big furnaces on the big lines and that has been a feature of the business over the years that the the lines that were built for much longer runs ended up too complex so we're we're cleaning up all of that um and so you know there there's a very intentional process how we do do that and we we understand you know what the financial implications are for that and you know getting getting that non-economic uh volume out of the business is is is good and you can see it you can see it coming through and then it frees up capacity for for for you know power skews where we make a lot more money and that's really is the thinking behind the cave got it maybe that
kind of feeds into my second question um most of the capacity adjustments i think you talked about in in the u.s or in america's um biomass maybe a half a million tons or so that's been identified in Europe, less about the tons and closures, and really, I think you talked about 40% of that business that gets exported out of your European operations into some other part of the world, and it's still relatively depressed. So I guess, what's enabling you to service that business that you talk about having the potential to come back with those capacity adjustments?
Yeah, you know, I think if you look at spirits largely, you know, in China, the two power markets for spirits out of Europe are the U.S. and China. And I think, you know, what we're going through in the U.S. with, you know, some, you know, I'll call them, you know, short term, you know, in the context of years, you know, there's some pricing that, you know, consumers are coming up against. We think, you know, that's a cyclical thing. And we also think the inventory in the system will work its way out. And, you know, the U.S. will, you know, will continue to take large quantities of, you know, spirits out of Europe. And China at the moment, you know, is experiencing the same thing and, you know, where demand is suppressed there. And, you know, and again, we see that working its way out over time and those markets coming back. And then you see the growth of markets like India and South Korea, you know, growing strongly. We're seeing, you know, the start of green shoots in, you know, in travel retail, which is up about, you know, 3% in volume year to date, but still not, you know, not back particularly on a value basis to where it was pre-COVID. So I think these are cyclical things that are going to work itself out, and, you know, we see ourselves having the capacity to match that when it comes back, yeah.
And to build on that, you know, Gabe, yes, we are closing out excess capacity to balance supply with demand, but keep in mind our TOE, Total Organization Effectiveness Program, is intended to unlock trap capacity in the system. that will allow us to grow, and that is by far the cheapest way to get capacity within the system with great operating leverage when you enable it.
Yeah. Thank you. And so getting the operations a lot fitter and then sweating them a lot harder than they were in the past.
Thank you. I will now pass the conference back over to Chris for any additional remarks.
Thank you. That concludes our earnings call. Please note our year-end and fourth quarter call is currently scheduled for Wednesday, February 11, 2026. And remember, make it a memorable moment by choosing safe, sustainable glass.
Thank you.
Thank you. Thanks all.
That concludes the OI Glass third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your line.
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