Operator
Hello everyone and thank you for joining the OIGlass full year and fourth quarter 2025 earnings conference call. My name is Lucy and I'll be coordinating your call today. During the presentation you can register a question by pressing star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind please press star followed by two. It is now my pleasure to hand over to your host Chris Manuel, Vice President of Investor Relations to begin. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Lucy, and welcome everyone to the OIGLASS fourth quarter and year-end conference call. Our discussion today will be led by Gordon Hardy, our CEO, and John Hodrick, our CFO. Following prepared remarks, we will host a Q&A session. Presentation materials for this call are available on the company's website. Please review the Safe Harbor comments and disclosure of our use of non-GAAP financial measures included in those materials. I'd now like to turn the call over to Gordon who will start on slide three.
Good morning everyone and thank you for your interest in OI Glass. Today we will review our full year and fourth quarter 2025 results, discuss recent business trends and provide an update on our strategic initiatives. We'll also outline our 2026 outlook and progress towards our 2027 investor day target. Before we begin, I want to recognize the dedication of the entire OIT. Your commitment and execution continue to strengthen our performance. Last night, we reported full-year adjusted earnings of $1.60 per share. Supported by stable top line, adjusted earnings nearly doubled versus 2024, and free cash flow rebounded to $168 million. These results reflect meaningful progress against our strategic objectives and were in line with our most recent upgraded guidance. A key contributor was the continued outperformance of Fit2Win, which delivered $300 million of benefits in 2025 and more than offset ongoing macroeconomic pressures. We exited the year with positive momentum as fourth quarter adjusted earnings increased meaningfully versus the prior year period. looking ahead we expect continued progress in 2026 including another strong year of fit to win execution even as market conditions remain challenging we are reaffirming our 2027 investor day financial targets despite challenging end markets we have increased our cumulative fit to win benefit target reinforcing our confidence in achieving our 2027 adjusted ebitda goal As a result, we expect to continue improving earnings, expanding economic profit, strengthening free cash flow, and delivering sustainable long-term value for shareholders. John and I will provide more detail on recent performance and our outlook. Let's now turn to page four to recap our strong full-year 2025 results. As you can see, our performance improved across our key financial metrics. We created intrinsic value with economic spread expanding by 200 basis points, driven by stronger earnings, more disciplined capital allocation, and continued network optimization. As intended, we maintained a stable top line. Average selling prices were steady, while favorable FX largely offset a decline in volumes. Our shipments in tons were down 2.5%, amid a 3% decline in consumer consumption. A few insights to add. On a unit basis, our shipments were down only 1.5%, reflecting our deliberate shift towards lighter weight and smaller format bottles with strong margins. A major project startup in Europe impacted shipments nearly 1%. And finally, we capitalized on emerging opportunities in pockets of growth as higher value categories such as premium spirits, food, NEBs and RTDs outperformed trends in mainstream beer and wine. So we shifted our mix about 1% towards a higher quality book of business. Overall, we believe Hawaii maintained our modestly improved market share as we continue to upgrade our business portfolio. • Adjusted EBDA increased 11%, with margins expanding 220 basis points as fit to win benefits more than offset modest pressure from net price and volumes. • Adjusted EPS nearly doubled, driven by stronger operating performance and a lower effective tax rate. • Free cash flow improved by approximately $300 million, supported by higher adjusted earnings, favorable working capital management, and a 30% reduction in capital expenditures. This improvement was achieved despite $128 million of restructuring payments, which are expected to taper after 2026. Finally, leverage improved by nearly half returns at 3.5, and we remain on track to reach approximately 2.5 leverage by year-end 2027. Stepping back, we continue to operate in a challenging environment as the value chain works through the long tail of post-COVID normalization. Against this backdrop, we're taking a highly disciplined approach, enhancing our portfolio, executing fit to win, and maintaining rigorous capital allocation, which positions us well as markets eventually recover. The common thread behind these results is execution, particularly fit to win, which we will now discuss on page five. fit to win is a core value driver for our business the effort continues to deliver significant cost reductions while optimizing our network and value chain cost discipline is not just defensive our cost mindset and discipline strengthens our competitive position which is a critical engine to enable future profitable growth in 2025 fit to win delivered 300 million dollars of savings, exceeding our original target of at least $250 million. Momentum remains strong in the fourth quarter, with benefits of approximately $80 million. For 2026, we expect at least $275 million of additional savings. Given this progress, we've increased our three-year cumulative fit-to-win target to at least 750 million up from 650 million let's assess progress across the different phases of the initiative phase a focused on sgna streamlining and initial network org optimization generated approximately 180 million of benefits in 2025 we expect an additional 135 million dollars in 2026, as we advanced later stage SG&A initiatives and finalized previously announced elimination of approximately 13% of excess capacity by mid-26, with remaining actions primarily in Europe. Phase B, which targets the end-to-end value chain transformation, delivered approximately $120 million of benefits in 2025, ahead of expectations. We anticipate at least 140 million dollars of savings in 2026 as we progress through the rollout of total organization effectiveness across the plant network with full implementation expected by year end we're also accelerating procurement and energy initiatives to drive incremental savings importantly the upside opportunities in phase b drove our increased 2027 target Overall, Fit2Win is delivering faster and stronger results than planned, notably in our Phase B projects, and we remain fully committed to achieving our 2026 and updated 2027 targets. With that, I'll turn it over to John to review fourth quarter performance and our 2026 outlook, starting on page six.
Thank you, Gordon, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with a review of our fourth quarter performance as Gordon has already covered full year 2025 results. OI delivered a solid fourth quarter with higher adjusted earnings supported by a stable top line. Net sales were approximately $1.5 billion and average selling prices were essentially flat, while favorable FX largely offset a mid-single-digit decline in volumes. Adjusted earnings rebounded meaningfully, improving from a net loss in the prior year to $0.20 per share. This improvement was driven by strong fit-to-win benefits, higher production levels, and a lower effective tax rate, which more than offset modest net price pressure and softer volumes. Overall, we delivered another solid quarterly performance, reflecting disciplined execution, continued cost reduction, and sustained momentum from our strategic initiatives. Now let's turn to page 7 to review segment operating profit. Momentum remained strong in the fourth quarter, with segment operating profit increasing 30% to $177 million in margins expanding 280 basis points. In the Americas, segment operating profit rose 40%, driven by higher net price and continued fit-to-win benefits. Volumes declined 10%, which was concentrated in beer and spirits, while other categories like food and NAB were more stable. Based on market data, about half of this decline was due to lower consumption given ongoing affordability challenges, change in consumer behavior affecting many markets, and weather-related disruption in Brazil. Evolving U.S. trade and immigration policies also impacted consumption and drove inventory adjustments across the value chain in the U.S. and Mexico, though, which also weighed on shipments. Additionally, results benefited from a one-time $6 million insurance settlement related to a prior year event. In Europe, segment operating profit increased 8%, reflecting contributions from strategic initiatives and higher production following last year's inventory reductions. Net price was a headwind, and volumes declined 3.5%. Based on market data, consumption was down low single digits, while shipments were also impacted by a shift in order patterns and other factors at a few customers. Shipments were stable or slightly higher in wine and food, while beer and spirits remained soft. Trends were weaker in the UK and Italy, but stronger across other markets. Importantly, all actions to eliminate excess capacity are expected to be completed in the first half of 2026, materially improving Europe's operating trajectory. Overall segment operating profit increased solidly, demonstrating disciplined execution and the continued success of our initiatives. Taken together, these trends inform our expectations for 2026, which we'll discuss on page 8. Looking ahead, we expect to build on our momentum and deliver improved results in 2026. The top line should be stable or modestly higher, supported by slightly better gross price and favorable effects as sales volumes are expected to be flat or slightly down. As markets gradually stabilize, we will continue to optimize our portfolio, including exiting unprofitable business to improve economic profit while maintaining or growing market share. We anticipate adjusted EBITDA of $1.25 to $1.3 billion, representing up to 7% growth versus 2025. This includes an estimated $150 million energy cost step up as favorable European energy contracts expired at year end. Excluding this impact, adjusted EBITDA would increase by up to 22%, highlighting the strength of our underlying operating improvements. As Gordon noted, we expect to benefit from at least $275 million of incremental fit-to-win actions, which should support improved performance despite modestly lower net price and flat or slower, slightly lower volumes. We project adjusted EPS of $1.65 to $1.90, representing up to 19% growth, assuming a tax rate of 30 to 33%. Free cash flow is expected to approximate $200 million, reflecting higher earnings partially offset by slightly higher capex, which should approximate $450 million, and about $150 million of restructuring cash costs, which should decline after 2026. The first quarter will be our most challenging year-over-year comparison due to tariff pre-buying, a one-time insurance recovery in the prior year, and a seasonally higher tax rate. So volumes will likely be down mid to high single digits given tough comps and sluggish demand. Over the balance of the year, results should improve as comparisons ease and fit-to-win benefits continue to ramp, particularly as European capacity actions and TO implementation progresses. Additional guidance details are included in the appendix. I'll now turn it back to Gordon to discuss progress towards the 2027 targets and concluding remarks starting on page 9.
Thanks, John. Reflecting on our solid momentum, we are reaffirming our 2027 investor-day targets. As you can see, we are making solid progress across our key objectives. Adjusted EBITDA and margins are improving. Fit to win is accelerating. Free cash flow conversion is improving. our balance sheet continues to strengthen and our economic spread has rebounded. Importantly, the business is moving in the right direction across all dimensions. Let's conclude on page 10. In summary, we are making solid progress in building a stronger foundation for the future. While conditions remain challenging, we are focused on improving competitiveness and preparing for volume recovery beyond 2026. Importantly, Fit2Win is a new discipline management system that drives consistent performance improvement regardless of market headwinds. As a result, margins and adjusted earnings are rising, free cash flow is improving and our balance sheet continues to strengthen. Most importantly, execution is strong and momentum is building. Thank you for your continued support. We are now happy to take any questions.
Operator
Thank you. To ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. If you change your mind, please press star followed by two. When preparing to ask your question, please ensure your device is unmuted locally. We kindly ask participants to limit their questions to one question and one follow-up question and re-queue for any further. The first question comes from Aganshin Panjabi of Baird. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks, guys. Thanks, operator. Good morning, everybody. Hey, Gordon, you know, just going back to the fourth quarter and the 10 percent volume decline in the Americas, how much of that do you attribute towards, you know, just year-end inventory adjustments? Obviously, it was a very tough year for many of you end markets throughout 2025, and I assume there was a fair amount of clean-out going into 2026. So just curious as to your thoughts. And then how are volumes in the region performing thus far in 2026? I know you have a tough comp from what you mentioned in terms of the pre-buy, et cetera?
Yeah. Thanks, Gansham. We continue to see sort of inventory adjustment in North America, particularly in spirits and in beer, particularly on beer originating from Mexico, given some of the changes in consumer behavior. So we would say They, you know, somewhere up to maybe half of that was an industry or inventory adjustments. So they're the two main drivers of that. There was also a bit of de-stocking in wine, but I think we believe that's largely here. So the big areas have been beer and spirits. We continue to see fairly high stocks and spirits. You know, I think the inventory to sales ratio is still running about the 1.7, 1.8, which is historically high versus the long run average of about 1.3. So it continues to be a challenge. However, you know, as we laid out our segment profit, you know, continues to improve in the Americas as we drive fit to win. and that helps us overcome these kind of short-term inventory adjustments. We expect those to continue in the first quarter, given the high level of stock in North America. But we continue then, on the other hand, to drive fit to win and also eke out pockets of growth across food, across NAB, particularly waters, is particularly strong for us in North America. So, yeah, that's how we see the first quarter in North America at Gansham.
Got it. Thanks for that. And then for, as it relates to the, you know, the expanded savings, you know, $750 versus $650 plus before, is that just a function of just the volumes being lower than you thought, and so you're taking additional elections and then just one final clarification on the energy headwind of 150 million for 2026 is that just a one and done you know will it just be specific to 26 or will there be any sort of lingering impact uh 2027 onwards thanks so much yeah i i'll take the first part um um so so would you take the energy question yeah i'll take the energy yeah let me just start with that On the energy side, yes, the $150 million energy reset is pretty much a kind of a one and done.
You know, the contracts that we had that were multi-year contracts that expired at the end of the year were rates before the Ukraine war with Russia, Russia war with Ukraine, I should say, and then which were at low rates. Those expired at the end of 2025. 2025. We have since been basically layering in contracts and hedges over the course of the last year. So we're substantially contracted on our energy exposure in 2026 in Europe. So we're confident about the $150 million, which is substantially a price is below current PTF, but still a ramp up from where we were in the past.
And Gautam, with regard to the additional savings, it really is not because of the volume. I think we pointed out, you know, in earlier calls and particularly on Investor Day, 650 was the original target. And obviously, we had a bigger bucket to go after. As the savings came faster than planned, you know, almost 50% of the savings in the first 15 months. And the organization's ability to, you know, go after and execute those savings then we're we're able to get after for you know um some of the stuff that we saw embedded but didn't have a clear line of sight to say a year ago now coming to fruition and being able to execute that that obviously helps offset the volume but it's not because of the volume so to speak i i think there are separate uh separate issues but uh but certainly it's uh it underpins our confidence in delivering our 2027 number.
Okay, perfect. Thanks for that.
Operator
The next question is from George Saffos of Bank of America. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. This is Kyle Benvenuto stepping in for George.
Regarding the flat to slightly down volume outlook, does this include the impact of exiting unprofitable business or is that excluded and what is the volume impact associated with walking away from that business thank you yeah i would say uh kyle yeah thanks for the question the outlook for 2026 where we say flat to slightly down does incorporate our mixed management efforts which also includes our efforts to improve our premium and mix of business uh grow market share in this area but also exiting unprofitable negative ep business uh so for example if you go back to our investor day over about about a year ago or so we had said that there was about four percent of our total volume that was deeply negative ep and we wanted to address that we want to address it either by rating prices in those books of business or exiting them and over this last year we probably saw about a one percent movement in the in that book and we expect to continue to chip away at that and so yeah that isn't included in in that outlook for the next year so so maybe there's another one percent or so type of movement as we continue to mix manage that thank you and then just to follow up um for the fit to win was designed to lower your cost position and open up doors to new volume opportunities why wasn't that sufficient to retain this volume and thank you
i'll pass it over after that yeah well um what i might do if if you look at the um you know the volumes probably down you know 2.8 percent and i might unpack some of that to give you maybe some insight as a the once-off insight at year end but if you look at our total volume um you know off about two point two point eight percent within that there was you know directionally about one to one and a half percent sort of share gain that translated into into uh you know one and a half percent volume we we we also had some you know restocking in certain in certain regions that probably added about another one to one and a half percent um and then on the on the minus side you know we we had some customer events where customers were managing their inventory you know taking some capacity down in the short term um that that was about um you know a decline of about one and a half percent um you know we we mentioned a startup of a fairly large capital project we had in the region that um and maybe some some furnace repairs we had during the year that was about one percent so when you net that off that nets to about two and a half percent but with within that we we had we think somewhere in the region about a 1.5% growth in volume, and that was high-quality, high-EP growth. So we are seeing growth start to come through, but it is being offset by other events in the market.
Yeah, and to build on that, what I would say is we really wanted to take a very disciplined approach in the marketplace. If you take a look at, given the challenges and the macro environment. You know, we held the top line study, which was exactly what we wanted to achieve. And you look at that, hey, net price was basically kind of flat in the marketplace. Volumes are down a couple percent. Given the context of the market, we think that that is good discipline in execution. And really, the concept of growing, you know, notwithstanding the mixed management and everything that's going on right now, is really kind of our Horizon 2 effort that we're working on. We're building the system for that right now, and we're finding those pockets of growth, as Gordon alluded to in the commentary. We're starting to execute on them. Some of them take time to be able to translate into actually demonstrated volumes and things like that, but we're working on things like design and innovation, leveraging our industry high net promoter score with our customers to find those opportunities for growth, but we're just starting that journey to start the leverage fit to win as we go forward yeah and just a bit on that kyle i think we mentioned in uh in our investor day and in subsequent calls that we really had mapped all of the categories and segments uh across all the markets in which we compete um we um we know a very very clear view on where the pockets of growth are um where we
have a right to win. And we are now adjusting or revamping our go-to-market model across all of our sales force and in all of the markets. And that's just starting to hit and be rolled out. We're having some wins on that. To give you an example, with a regional beer customer where our expected growth would be you know somewhere in the high to mid or mid to high single digits this year um we're seeing you know other spirits customers in in certain regions where we we would expect again high to mid single uh digit growth this year so it's starting to come through but really it will be you know towards the back half of the year and probably the the last quarter of the year before we we see that gain real momentum and then into 2027 you know as we look ahead for the year we have the world cup coming up where we would start to see inventories building kind of late uh late april in into may uh we've got the 250 year celebration here in the u.s we we think that's going to have a kind of a positive impact so so we see it starting to build we we spent the first kind of 15, 18 months on the back end of the business and getting TOE right. Now there's a huge focus on getting the go-to-market piece of the business right so we can execute on where we see these pockets of growth.
Operator
The next question comes from Josh Spector of UBS. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. It's Anoja Shah sitting in for Josh. I wanted to ask about the 750, the new cost savings target, not to take away from how impressive this performance has been, but you've basically raised the cost savings target by 100 million, but kept the 2027 EBITDA the same. I assume that means that maybe your volumes are going to continue to offset, but But is there anything else in there, or what explains that? Can you reconcile that for us?
Yeah, yeah, this is John. I can touch base on that. You know, yes, the target of at least $1,450 remains in place, right? So we're not limiting ourselves to $1,450, at least $1,450. So we have increased a fit-to-win by $100 million. That does help mitigate the uncertainty around the commercial environment. Of course, we are working to drive an improved commercial outlook for the business. Just back to the last discussion, we are building this system to be able to grow. As we've always said, it's going to be a little bit more of a horizon to, you know, a target to drive the top line growth. But we are making some room, given the uncertainty and the continued prolonged affordability challenges out there in the marketplace.
Thank you for that. And then in the past, you talked about working with customers and I guess the whole supply chain to get better as an industry at forecasting demand. I think you had said that you were only about at a 50% success rate a while ago. Can you give us an update on that and maybe where you are now and any financial benefits you're seeing from that?
You know, so when we kind of began the journey, it was running at about 50%. You know, I am glad to report that as we move through 2025, that's jumped to about 68%, 69%. And with many of our customers, you know, at the most senior level, we've had discussions about the need to, you know, improve the the supply chain efficiency you know if i compare it to other industries i i think there's a big opportunity for ourselves working with customers and suppliers to uh to strip out waste and inefficiency in the in the in the value chain and and that's what we're uh we're focused on um i think when we last spoke our new chief supply officer um hadn't started he has he has know begin or begun and um you know that's a key focus for for him and his his team is how how do we strip cost and waste out of the supply chain and then share that with with with customers and suppliers with a view to to growing uh growing volumes in in the different categories so we've made good progress still a lot of work to go and still a lot of opportunity to take out over the next 18, 24 months, Anuja.
Great. Thank you. I'll turn it over.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from Mike Roxland of Truist. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you, Gordon, John, Chris, and T for taking my questions. Congrats on all the progress. Thanks. Gordon, I wanted to follow up with you. Absolutely. Yeah. I just wanted to follow up with you, Gordon, on some really interesting color in terms of mentioning where the pockets of growth are, where you have a right to win. And then you mentioned revamping the go-to market model. So what are you doing differently? And what are you trying to encourage Salesforce to do differently to drive better volumes? And as you think about your portfolio, I know you mentioned you had some beer win. It sounds like you had a beer win and maybe some spirits wins as well that are going to hit later this year.
But as you think about your portfolio, are you looking to reorient maybe toward more growth markets like food and maybe these RTGs maybe minimize beer maybe minimize spirits particularly given the elevated inventories that that category has experienced yeah I'll take the second piece first Mike so yes is the short answer in terms of reorienting the portfolio to you know higher higher growth and higher margin segments such as non-alcoholic beverages you know non-alcoholic beer waters juices we're seeing you know um you know significant growth opportunities particularly in the in the americas on that um food is is growing particularly in in the southern half of europe um and in markets like like brazil and and mexico uh and indeed here in in north america so that's that's very much part of a focus strategy and we're starting to see results come come through with regard to you know the the go-to-market model um um you know i i i probably would have viewed the the organization of the sales forces in the different market to be somewhat traditional you know um and probably hadn't changed over a period of 10 to 15 years And we're bringing in much better sort of insights, sharing those insights with the sales force and bringing kind of modern methods of sales management into the business and equipping then our sales force with insights and opportunities by customer on how the customer can either improve their growth or improve their cost or both. And then a much more rigorous system of review and accountability, building from daily sales to weekly sales to monthly against targets and a much tighter cope management. Now, in many industries, this is old hat, but this will be a big step forward for us in how we drive focus on performance. um and um yeah we we have some fantastic insights and data in the business it's now how do we turn those into uh opportunities for uh for our customers um and we're already starting to see you know green shoots coming through in in that system it's it's early days and embedding it we we should be well underway by end of the uh of the second quarter and that system should be in place across all the markets uh and functioning accordingly we're also upgrading some of the um you know some of the the commercial leadership in different markets uh and and bringing kind of better better and best practices into the business so so that that's a bit of flavor on on that mike uh happy to uh to elaborate on any of that uh no then this is that that's very helpful But I would be fair to say that the changes that you're pursuing are going to lead you to that volume growth that you're targeting for 2028 and beyond, the 1% that you outlined at I-Day.
It sounds like you're getting an earlier jump on doing these things, particularly given that there's been a pull forward of the fit-to-win benefits, such that you're starting to move forward at a faster pace on commercialization and trying to streamline the organization and bring in business wins. Is that a fair assessment?
Correct. Yeah, that's a fair assumption. And just to add a bit of color to that. So, you know, the first area of focus really was on the, you know, the supply chain and strengthening the supply chain and getting the cost down. And that's what really we've been focused on, you know, over the last 18 months. And as we've made sort of faster progress than expected, that allows us to, you know, orient more focus to the front end of the business. It's very difficult to make moves on the back end and the front end at the same time. That risks all sorts of supply chain snafus and customer issues. and we were very deliberate in staging how we would do this. So we got the back end in order, in much better order. There's still a lot of opportunity there for us. We did that faster than planned, and that allowed us then to switch the focus to the front end of the business, you know, probably maybe six to nine months ahead of what we might have thought in the early days. So really it is a sequencing thing that allowed us to go faster as we made faster progress on the back end.
Got it. Very helpful. Thanks very much, and good luck in 26.
Operator
The next question comes from Aaron Viswanathan of RBC. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Great. Thanks for taking my question. Hope you guys are well. I guess, first off, I just wanted to understand how the volume trajectory would progress through 26. So I think last year in the first half, you were up, you know, 2% to 4%, and then now you do face those tougher comps. And then, you know, the back half of 25, you were down. So should we expect kind of reversal of those trends in 26? And if so, given that you would be exiting maybe at a positive rate, do you expect that positive volume growth to continue in 27?
Yeah, Raina, thanks for the question, John, here. Yeah, you're basically spot on. The first quarter, as we had indicated, is going to be their toughest comp period. Our volumes are up between 4% and 5% last year. We believe that was substantially due to tariff pre-buying. so so we kind of you work off of that tougher comp so that's where we said we're going to be down mid that maybe even high single digits depending on on on the consumer we transition in the second quarter to something is closer to flat and then that in the back half of the year you're looking at low to mid single digit type of growth numbers against obviously easier comps that we had over the next year and yes i think that this develops into a bit of commercial momentum And so, you know, we're looking to continue to try to improve the top line. Obviously, you know, a little bit of help from the consumer will be good. And, you know, there's macros that need to be addressed on the affordability side. But as we work through that on a macro basis, you know, that could result in a tailwind down the road as markets recover. And we get this engine that Gordon was talking about also, you know, fine-tuned.
Great. Thanks for that, John. and then um the free cash flow uh you know i i think the guidance is somewhat in line with our expectations um any opportunities there for upside um you know i guess maybe it could come from uh maybe net price not being as as negative i don't know if that's one opportunity but or working capital kind of harvesting a little bit more um any opportunities there uh where you could the upside to that free cash flow? Or how do you feel about the level of guidance for 26? Thanks.
Yeah. So clearly, the biggest lever is going to be on the EBITDA side, if we can perform on the top end of the range and get some of that higher-end improved cost performance. Obviously, we have $275 million. We're always aiming for more, right? As we've delivered in the past, we're always aiming for more so there's there's continued opportunities to work there i would also profile as you mentioned working capital we do have efforts to continue to reduce inventory this next year we have made a provision for additional receivables towards the end of the year as we're talking about the growth but but we're also working on for example non-finished good inventories other things belong below the line that that that could could generate additional cash um and so i think those are your biggest variables um and we continue to work on the end the balance sheet, and we'll probably have another year of refinancing going on. So, we'll look for opportunities to improve, you know, P&L and cash management there.
You know, one other thing, you asked about net price. I do think, you know, price is probably less the moving piece on the gross price, but inflation, you know, if inflation continues to trend off, that might be an upside, but I think that's a little early to determine. Thanks.
Operator
Thank you. The next question comes from Anthony Pettenari of Citi. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
This is Brian Brickmeyer on for Anthony. Thanks for taking the question. Maybe just kind of following up on Arun's question, just considering the 1Q outlook, do you anticipate any curtailments kind of continuing into 1Q or 2Q, or do you think those curtailments if they are going to be there would kind of taper off throughout the year considering your footprint actions are going to be i think wrapped up by mid-year this year um any detail on kind of the curtailment or operating rate would be helpful yeah let me step back and talk about uh capacity management as you recall back in 2024 we had about 13 of underutilized capacity and that's what drove our program you know to to eliminate the capacity which we've been working on.
That 13% in 2024 dropped to about 6% in 2025, primarily as we made progress on the Americas. It took us a little bit longer in Europe complying with labor regulations. So we expect that 6% to drop in 2026 as we complete that activity over in Europe. So that 6% maybe goes down to about 3% or so. We also have efforts to kind of reduce some inventories, as I mentioned. And that also, that extra, you know, downtime actually provides some swing capacity for us, which is pretty important. So as markets recover, that you have the opportunity to take advantage on the upside. So we might be carrying a little bit of downtime, but we're getting into the short strokes there.
Thanks for our detail. That makes a lot of sense. And then last question for me, you know, you mentioned the pre-buy impact from tariffs. Maybe just as we start to get closer to kind of lapping Liberation Day, are you seeing kind of stability or maybe even potentially a modest recovery in some of those impacted markets? I guess there's maybe still not the full clarity some customers are looking for, but I'm not sure if it's been stabilizing throughout the year. Thanks. I'll turn it over.
Yeah, I think we are seeing some stabilisation and certainly there's more certainty here than a year ago. And then we're seeing other sort of geopolitical moves, you know, with, say, you know, the UK, which is an important source market, obviously for Scotch, you know, opening up, you know, agreements with India and with China. And depending on how quickly they come to come to action, then that that that creates sort of opportunities for for the Scotch industry to export more to India and China. And that obviously, you know, then has an impact on on us. Same thing with French spirits, you know, into China, particularly cognac and the higher end wines and things like champagne. So those things help for sure. They weren't on the radar this time last year. They are now. And at least we're working with the certainty of the system that's there at the moment. um so i i think the big challenge in in the us market is is to increase you know consumer offtake and and to drive down the inventories that are that are in the system um we are seeing you know customers make moves to you know change in in marketing strategies and increasing their spend behind that increasing promotions um you know to to drive that um so you know i i would say the outlook is certainly more stable and I would say probably more positive than it was this year, last year, with all the uncertainty.
Operator
Thank you. The next question comes from Paco Ruiz of BNP Paribas. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. Most of the questions have been answered, but I have two. First one is if you could give a little more detail on the European market supply and demand dynamics? I mean, you commented that mainly for the cuts in supply would be in Europe. How do you expect that they're willing to perform there?
Yeah, so happy to do that, Ruiz. So what we're seeing in Europe is, well, let me stand back. So in the Americas, we see capacity probably tighter and more aligned with demand. And, you know, less sort of price pressure, I would say, in general across the markets. There are some pockets where that doesn't hold. But in general, I think capacity and demand is pretty tightly matched in the markets. With regard to Europe, there certainly is more spare capacity. We've obviously, you know, taken down what we feel is surplus to us. There has been some other, capacity taken out across the markets but if you look at categories like wine in France and Spain there's still significant over capacity and and there is price pressure in in those categories in those markets also you know in in sort of mainstream lower lower equity kind of beer we're seeing some capacity come on, but it certainly has tightened up significantly year on year, okay? And I would say, you know, pricing has firmed up, whereas last year, you're probably looking at a situation of more overcapacity and therefore more pressure on pricing so uh again i i would see the situation has has has improved year on year um obviously you know our focus is on what we control and you know we're taking you know the the actions we've outlined which should all be completed at the latest uh by by the half year um and that would make our network um you know you know pretty pretty pretty tight i would add you know if you
take a look at the trajectory of kind of net price performance, 2024 was kind of a reset year. 2025 was significantly better. And then we expect 2026 to be better than 2025, even though we're seeing a little bit of still net price pressure. So it's gradually getting better and normalizing. Yeah.
And, you know, you see the significant uplift in America's in 2025 and not so much in the EU, and that really is just a factor of timing. You know, you can get to take actions in the Americas at a much swifter rate than in Europe, as you well know. But we've worked through that process, you know, diligently and in a disciplined manner, and we're well down the path to executing, you know, on the kind of actions that drove the uplifts in America or the Americas, we'll see those coming through now in Europe in 2026.
Okay, thank you very much. My second question is from one of the drivers that you commented on your Capital Market Day, which is the move from can to glass, which mainly you highlighted this on a better improvement of your profitability. And now given the high cost the of the raw material of the aluminium it's it's making uh this way alone no i mean i mean there are there are more opportunities for the companies to to move that way are you seeing this this driver already this year uh or is something that uh this is still pending to to be seen yeah look we uh certainly in the categories in which we operate we we've seen a a very big slowdown, particularly in North America, of that switch.
And, you know, if I take a look at the price cap, which I think we outlined at about 35% at ID, that is certainly, you know, with the movement in aluminium on paper anyway, to, you know, 10, 12% mark. And historically, you know, when it's been around that level, you see a shift over time from cans to glass, right? However, we're still focused on driving our own internal opportunities to reduce costs, and we're not going to stop there. But yes, absolutely, it helps. There is can growth in Europe, but it tends to be in the categories where glass isn't either not highly represented or it's not fit for purpose for a specific channel. right um and uh there's there's growth in in kind of csds and particularly energy drinks which is which is nearly exclusively can and a lot of those consumption uh moments are in in areas where you can't use glass like concerts and beaches and and stuff like that but um you know where in terms of of cost gap to um to cans in europe you know where we're we're in a very good position as well so um So yeah, so let's see what plays out this year in terms of draft recans. But again, certainly in a much better position than we were this time last year in that regard. Okay, thank you very much.
Operator
Thank you. The next question comes from Richard Carlson of Wells Fargo. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, guys. I'm sending in for Gabe Hady today. Most of my questions have been answered, but I did want to ask. Hey, good morning. um so uh inventory was up looks like 20 million quarter of a quarter we normally would have expected it to be down by about that much so call it about a 40 50 million delta there were you actually tracking ahead of your free cash flow guidance earlier in the quarter it seems like maybe the surprise was some of the volume in america's might have been to blame there and then i guess if so does this set you up a little better to start 2026 since maybe some of the inventory build into q1 is already done yeah one thing i would would say is when you take a look at those balance sheet numbers there's a hell of a lot of fx flushing through there okay so so on an fx neutral basis we were able to reduce inventory some last year now keep in mind uh we
did not achieve the in the ids targets we were hoping to at the end of the year we you know we ended in 2024 57 ids we were hoping to get that down to 50. we did not get there because of the softness in the back half of the year but to your point that does set us up for continued progress to be made this next year um in 2026 so yes we are anticipating and included in our guidance right now is us getting that 50 days of ids plus additional progress on on non-finished good inventories things like raw materials and and machine parts and spare parts and things like that that also can contribute some upside opportunities to cash as we go forward understood that's helpful and then and john also your your quarterly cadence guidance
is is reflecting pretty well balanced h1 versus h2 i think based on some of the volume comments you've made i would have been surprised and also based on some of your your peer commentary about you know most most are expecting a stronger back half so maybe can you help us reconcile some of that and then also where is is the world cup contemplated in this or is that just representing potential upside?
I think it's more of a potential upside. I mean, there's a lot of variables out there. You know, obviously, if we're talking about flat to slightly down buy-ins, you know, there's not a lot of those event-specific things considered into the guidance right now. As we take a look at the, you know, the reconciliations and things like that, you know, obviously, some of this has to do with prior year comps and where we were, you know, earnings-wise in the prior year. We also are looking at the cadence of a fit to win. Obviously, we got a lot of activities here in the first half of the year, especially with Europe, you know, that will start to track into the second quarter. But again, you know, if there is upsides in the markets and they recover, then that probably, as I mentioned, is not comprehended in the outlook that we have right now. So we're trying to be practical on our, on our outlooks right now. And, and, and that, that includes the sales volumes at flat to down.
Got it. Thanks guys. And best of luck in Q1. Thank you. Thank you.
Operator
We have no further questions at this time. So I'd like to hand back to Chris for closing remarks.
Thanks, Lucy. That concludes our earnings call. Please note that our first quarter call is currently scheduled for Wednesday, April 29th. And remember, Make it a memorable moment by choosing safe, sustainable glass.
Operator
This concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.
