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Earnings call · FY2024 Q4
Executive readout · one minute
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Management tone
Confident
Net tone +65 · low hedging
Forward guidance
1 guided metrics
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| Metric | Period | Guided | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Non-GAAP operating earnings
2025
|
$3.94 – $4.06 | Non-GAAP |
How the reported period landed and where the business moved.
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Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Rob, and I'm your event operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to today's conference, Public Service Enterprise Group's Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results 2024 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Later, we'll conduct a question and answer session for members of the financial community. At that time, if you have a question, you will need to press the star and a number one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star in the number 2. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star 0 on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, February 25, 2025, and will be available for replay as an audio webcast on PSEG's Investor Relations website at https colon forward slash forward slash investor dot pseg dot com i would now like to turn the conference over to carl carlotta chan please go ahead good morning and welcome to pseg's fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings presentation on today's call are ralph la rosa chair president and ceo and dan craig executive vice president and cfo the press release attachments and slides
for today's discussion are posted on our IR website at investor.pseg.com, and our 10K will be filed later today. PSEG's earnings release and other matters discussed during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. We will also discuss non-GAAP operating earnings, which differs from net income, as reported in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP, in the United States. We include reconciliations of our non-GAAP financial measures and a disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements on our IR website and in today's material. We will conduct a 30-minute question and answer session.
I will now turn the call over to Carlotta and $3.05 of $0.84, $3.06, the 20th consecutive non-GAAP operating earnings guidance to invest that our team will continue to be meaningful in control enable us to make completed the advance we implemented new per year since our last rate case over psc and g lowered its gas commodity charge to 33 cents per light charge reduction since january of 20 to moderate the recent outcome of the bgs auction results which will increase customer electric bill g's record of reliability affordability and customer status number one in customer tricking gas service in the east by jd power the utility also received the pa consulting 2024 reliability one award for the mid-atlantic region for the 23rd to recognize and thank all your objectives to our outlook for 2025 starting with slides 5 and g's non-gap operating earnings guidance dollars and 94 to support up by 9% at the midpoint over our 2024 reported 5 guidance midpoint is the new base year for pscg's 5 to 7% non-gap operative cg nuclear that is 9% incremental investments at psc and g that 14 and 15 than the year and 24 months on average. Low to moderate and PSEGs that would be incremental can also benefit predictable 3.5 share increase in PSEG's annual common non-GAAP operating
of 48 cents per non-GAAP through the net changes by the implementation of news in the fourth quarter, primarily due to the timing of spending. Continued growth in investment and energy efficiency in the fourth quarter of 2023, and each segment grew by approximately 1%. As I mentioned, PSE&G invested approximately $0.9 billion or $900 million during the full spending totaled $3.6 billion on infrastructure-regulated capital of $18 billion to $20 billion. in regulated investments is under PSE&G's existing and the CES-EE-5-2029 regulated capital investment plan is expected to produce compound annual growth in rate of 2024 for $1 billion, $0.02 per share in the fourth quarter of 2023. Operating earnings loss includes the net impact based upon the shape of our underlying hedges. And 90% at the 2023 level, which is substantially helped by the third medium-term notes for PSEG Power amended its existing $1.25 billion And your term loan agreement, $5 billion of debt, continue to have a low level of very high regulated cap and new base rates of PSE&G and PSEG patent extension work, 9% higher at 2029.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we'll now begin the question and answer session for members of the financial community. If you have a question, please press the star and the number 1 on your telephone keypad. If your question has been answered and you wish to withdraw your polling request, you may do so by pressing the star and the number 2. If you're on a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before entering your request. One moment, please, for the first question. The first question comes from the line of Char Perusa with Guggenheim Partners. Please receive your questions.
Hey, guys. Good morning. Good morning, Char. Morning, Will. Morning, Dan. So just, Ralph, starting off on the nuclear side with Artificial Island, Do you see sort of commercial discussions being delayed with the recent actions at FERC? Does the complexity of, like, behind-the-meter deals change the deal structure to potential opportunities around side of the meter? And any sense on timing, especially given the governor's ambitions?
Yeah, thanks, Shorts. You know, he – well, New Jersey Economic Development, he has –
there is really continue to have discussions with multiple I think he answers throughout directionally what they said was continue to see what happens there but I think our messaging is really consistent with respect and
the class at full on the first chart just to reinforce that the timing of it is it's pretty aggressive and it was a clear at least for the one potential solution of behind the meters still in front of the meter and there's still other and that's a fair point I appreciate that Ralph and then just just I just want to make sure, does the PSE&G pipeline of opportunities and inquiries you just highlighted, it's over four gigs, does that negate any of the artificial island opportunities? In other words, any chance that a potential deal with artificial island kind of shift towards the front of the meter with PSE&G or the artificial island counterparty is completely separate from the PSE&G conversations you just highlighted?
Yeah, so I think that who's other things, you know, believe it or not, we're still taking place. So it's that we want to make sure, first of all, from a data center standpoint, the states, they've got a helix that they've taken place.
Fantastic. Thank you guys so much. Appreciate it and great execution.
The next question is from the line of David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley. Pleasure to see with your questions.
Oh, hey, thanks. Good morning. Hey, David. Hey, how you doing? Let me see. I guess the PJM auction has been getting a lot of attention recently. FERC is going to be relooking at auction structures, and a number of changes are underway now. I was wondering if you could comment on how you're thinking about the outlook for the PJM market. What could change? Are there possibilities of structural changes here? And how do you navigate that, maybe both from a customer impact and for your nuclear fleet?
Yeah, so I think the way we are specifically addressing it is by the PTC floor. Well, from a customer, cost down, we'll continue to advocate on this as a question of the PJM market is, you know, my concern in this concept.
Yeah, I think, you know, just to add on for the nearer term, you know, to the extent that this comes back again to Ralph's first comment, that what we're basically putting out from a financial standpoint is the PTC floor. So to the extent that things move below that, that floor is there. If it moves above that, there could be some potential benefit for us. But I think job one is getting resource adequacy right.
Yeah, absolutely. I appreciate that color. And maybe somewhat related, I guess, you know, is the uncertainty in the outlook for PJM broadly a deterrent, you know, for new large load customers, maybe new customers broadly, looking at the market? You know, there's been, I guess, with all these changes being considered for the auction construct and looking at the resource adequacy challenges ahead in the market. Are you seeing that, you know, lowering the interest levels from some of these customers? Any perspective there would be helpful.
Yeah, no, I point you back to the data in the prepared remarks where we talked about the increase from 400 largest and large load in New Jersey alone. For the other jurisdictions.
Yep, got it. That's fair. Great. I'll leave it there. Thanks so much.
Our next question is from the line of Nick Campanella with Barclays. Please receive your questions.
Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the time. Morning. Hey, so I just want to put a finer point on Char's question, just in terms of bringing a, you know, maybe a commercial deal forward for the nuclear fleet. Are you still watching and waiting for the state at this point, or is it really waiting on FERC? And then just the follow up to that is just, as we kind of think about the timeline, if a large load customer was to be able to connect to the facility, what's the timeline for ramp? And can that affect earnings in 2027? or is this more later data towards the end of the decade? Thanks.
Yeah, and Nick, I think that we're not waiting on anything on the state, and I think we're not waiting anything. I think that some of the details can be may come with respect to, you know, we're, it's interesting. I do think that there was, even though we didn't get complete, I think, be helpful as we continue to go forward, but it's not stopping anything, I think, from this things can be done. It may add some flexibility.
Okay. And then just like the, I guess the ramp for a customer, it does take time for these data centers to ramp up, it seems like. And I'm just wondering, is this something that you think can impact the outlook on the five-year plan or is it more longer data than that?
Yeah, think about it in a couple different ways, Nick. I would say that to the extent that there is a sale of what exists today, then something could happen quicker to the extent that somebody needs to build a data center for that power. So I think depending upon the nature of where things go. And there's a couple of things that we're working towards. That's going to dictate the timing.
Okay. I appreciate that. And then just following up on the capacity auction commentary, just wanted to try to understand, you know, if we kind of continue to clear near the 270 level, how does that kind of impact your gross receipts calculation out to 27 and where you are in the range? Thanks.
You know, as you go out in time, you're going to have to take, and then you're going to lay that capacity price on top of it. I'll remind you that at least in, I think that you to think about how the results are going to go is there to the extent that markets move up.
Absolutely. Absolutely. And I appreciate the commentary on the range. That's helpful. Thank you.
Our next question is from the line of Paul Fremont with Ladenburg-Fallman. Please proceed with your questions.
Great. I guess First question, can you give us sort of any color on hedges that you have at Peg Power? Normally, I guess you would be at 90% for this year. How should we think about sort of, you know, past guidance versus where you are right now?
Yeah, Paul, what we have done and what we have existing uncertainty that minimizes our percentages would have been back, you know, to think about being somewhere in the 90s and 25 and maybe two-thirds and 26 and a third.
Great. And then I guess you used to provide sort of a breakout of net income guidance between the utility and PEG Power and other. Is there a reason why you've not done that for this year?
It's just I think we made that change a year or two back on a price level.
And then just to sort of follow up on Nick's question, the gross margin sensitivity that you provide includes capacity prices to the extent that the auctions continue. Oh, the question is, should we, in other words, you give a dollar per megawatt hour as sensitivity. does that include the dollar per megawatt hour equivalent of the capacity auctions?
Yeah, think about that as an all-in price that you would see for a megawatt hour. And, yes, you'd have to variabilize that fixed charge, but, yes, that's the right way to think. Great.
Thank you very much.
Thanks, Paul.
The next question is from the line of Paul Zimbardo with Jeffries. Pleased to see what's your question. Our next question is from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates.
We're on a four and a four. There you go. He's the charm.
So just, I mean, back to the timing on the co-location, I noticed the language that the chair reiterated actually mean in terms of when you think that. You also said something that was interesting about the PGM market or the lack thereof. This is something that obviously is being – there's just a lot of activity, a lot of discussion, a lot of apprehension, I think, about reliability and pricing and what have you. Do you have anything you'd like to share in terms of what potentially might – what you might be looking for? I mean, in terms of maybe a longer-term setup or something, or just what are your thoughts about it? I mean, I'd just be curious as to what you think might come out of all the examination of this, how it might evolve.
Well, I think it's going to depend upon what state you're in, and certainly here in certain Pennsylvania. You know, we have a DECA, PSCG, New Jersey, as I think right now. Any idea when we might see something of a proposed company is continue to educate everyone on the issue to help people think.
The next question is from the line of Carly Davenport with Goldman Sachs. Hello.
Hey, Carly.
Hey, thanks for taking the question. Sorry to put a stop to the Paul train there. But thanks for all the colors so far on the power side. Maybe just one from me on the regulated side. Just on the GSMP3 filing, do you still expect to revisit that this quarter? And then would that be upside to the plan in 26 plus, or are there already assumptions kind of baked in after the GSMP2 extension kind of runs itself out?
Yeah, Carly, we are starting to have those conversations, and it is in the plan.
Great. Thank you for that. I'll leave it there.
Thanks, Carly.
The next question is from the line of Paul Zimbardo with Jeffrey. Please receive your question.
Back on the Paul train. Hey, can you hear me? Hopefully we're on the train.
We got it. We got it, Paul.
There we go. Yeah, no, thank you. The neighborhood reception is not always the best. But no, thank you very much. And one, I want to follow up on a little bit just on the balance sheet side, so I saw the no additional equity in the outlook, even with the cap tax increase. Could you level us at what was the actual 2024 FFO to debt and kind of where do you envision the credit message going throughout the plan?
We continue to be in that mid-teens range and the reason that gives us the comfort to say exactly what we did.
Got it. I'll follow up on that one. and then shifting a little bit on going back to the the bgs looking at the the one-year results for commercial industrial uh for your zone it was very high on a dollar per megawatt day basis almost 700 a megawatt day and i know that you do not participate in that with your unregulated fleet because are there any thoughts or kind of takeaways of what that indicates for what new jersey could look like without um a robust supply response for customers yeah so so paul that that we were i think around 17 all in in the numbers that were generated by the state and and published 20 these are residents have to lean in on and continuing to get the energy
efficiency you know the biggest element related to the increase that we are seeing is coming from the auctions that happened at pjm and so that i do think you probably will see more interest in shopping. But I think at the end of the day, the providers are going to have to go back to that same well.
Okay. And to clarify, let's display commercial and industrial. Like there, it's so clear that it's $696 a megawatt day for PSE&G. Just if you have any delta on that, then I'll leave it. Thank you.
Yeah, man. I think it's still coming from the same supplier going to them. And I think the same ability to shop is going to exist there. So I think you've...
Okay. Thank you all very much. Thank you. Our final question is from the line of Anthony Crowdale with Mizuho. Please proceed with your question.
Hey, good morning, Dan. Good morning, Ralph. Just a quick follow-up to Paul Patterson and kind of the comment you're making about maybe the PGM market. I don't know if you said it doesn't exist or whatever. Just is the state of New Jersey in a net long position on generation? And if so, what's the reserve margin there? Or do you have a reserve market?
Yeah, so the state of New Jersey, this is going to be different than off-peak, seasonal, it matters a lot when you are talking about it, but across the year.
Is one of the options, and this is just a question, you know, obviously you say they need a resource adequacy plan, but is it similar to maybe other states that have gone maybe like a, I forgot the acronym, I think maybe FRR, or just pulled out the generation and the load? Is that one of the multitude of options that the state could face or should I be thinking about something different?
Yeah, no, I absolutely bang in the...
Great, thanks for taking my questions.
Thank you. I'd like to turn the floor back to Mr. LaRosa for closing comments.
And that's not a... The team, actually, thank you to the Empower here at PSEG.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's teleconference. May disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
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