Stagwell Inc Q1 FY2020 Earnings Call

Thank you, Alison. Good morning, everyone. I'd like to thank you for taking the time to listen to the MDC Partners conference call for the first quarter of 2020. Joining me today from MDC Partners is Mark Penn, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Frank Lanuto, Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin our prepared remarks, I'd like to remind you that the following discussion contains forward-looking statements, and non-GAAP financial data. Forward-looking statements about the company, including those related to earnings guidance, are subject to uncertainties referenced in the cautionary statement included in our earnings release and slide presentation, and are further detailed in this Company's Form 10-K and subsequent SEC filings. For your reference, we posted an investor presentation to our website. We also refer you to this morning's press release and slide presentation for definitions, explanations, and reconciliations of non-GAAP financial data. And now to start the call, I'd like to turn it over to our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Mark Penn.

Thank you, Alex, and good morning. Throughout this pandemic, I have prioritized the safety of our employees and partners above all else. They have worked diligently to meet the evolving needs of our clients during this unprecedented crisis. A key factor in navigating this challenging time is the plan we have been implementing to reshape and improve the Company over the past year, which is evident in our fourth quarter results and even more so in our first quarter results. Notably, we achieved a return to organic growth of 2%, marking the first instance of net organic growth since the third quarter of 2018. We are the only major advertising and marketing company globally to report this level of organic growth in the first quarter. As I mentioned in our last earnings call, our partners secured significant wins in the fourth quarter that positioned us strongly for the first quarter. Importantly, we achieved this growth despite the pullback that began around mid-March. This growth was observed at our integrated agencies and particularly in our PR agencies, spanning across major client segments. Additionally, a combination of cost-cutting, our reorganization into new networks, and improved corporate efficiency led to a remarkable 110% year-over-year growth in adjusted EBITDA, rising from $19 million to $39 million, excluding the divestitures of Kingsdale and Sloane. Covenant EBITDA also climbed to $42 million, up 93% from the previous year, and surpassed $200 million on a trailing 12-month basis. The increase in revenue and earnings significantly enhanced our year-over-year cash position. By the end of the first quarter, we held $95 million in total cash, not considering a $125 million precautionary draw on our revolving credit line, compared to $30 million at the end of Q1 last year. Our operating cash performance improved significantly from typical first-quarter seasonal trends. Our leverage ratio also improved to 4.3 in this quarter compared to 5 a year ago and 4.5 in Q4 of 2019. We achieved a net new business win of $8 million, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of positive new business, resulting in a total of $114 million in net new business wins over the last year. Although our new business wins were lower than in the previous two quarters, they remained positive, despite some pitches being put on hold in mid-March due to the virus. Significant wins included new lines of business with existing clients such as Uber Eats, Molson Coors, Nike, Samsung Home Electronics, and Facebook. We also gained contracts with Chubb Insurance, AB InBev, 72andSunny, Take-Two Interactive, NBA 2K with Anomaly, the Truth Initiative at Mono, Constellation Brands, and Boyd Gaming at Vitro, among others. While the coronavirus outbreak has been tragic for all, MDC Partners was well-positioned to withstand the crisis and regain momentum as we transition into recovery. We reduced run-rate expenses by approximately $35 million by the end of 2019, as promised, and established five scaled networks led by our most entrepreneurial leaders to facilitate faster and more direct responses to the crisis from business leaders at the front lines. We also reorganized our CRM and media buying operations to collaborate more effectively in a data-driven world alongside creativity. We expect our moves to consolidate back-office functions like IT to be accelerated, which will increase cost savings as part of our crisis management and become a permanent part of our ongoing improvements. Our real estate consolidation in New York, projected to save at least $10 million to $12 million annually, remains on track for later in 2020, designed to provide the safest possible environment for our employees with additional distancing and air filtration measures. As I mentioned, we prioritize safety, putting it ahead of business. As the crisis evolved, we swiftly limited travel and implemented remote work protocols. Almost all functions of the Company outside live events and large productions transitioned to working from home. I categorize our clients into three groups: those with increased demand for their products, those experiencing a sharp decline in demand, and those unaffected by behavioral changes but impacted by the economic slowdown. Most of our clients fall into the third category and are influenced by economic conditions. We anticipate that MDC's impact will be somewhat less severe than the overall economic effect due to our strong client base of large tech and other significant companies that may delay or reduce spending but are likely to engage robustly when recovery happens. Generally, the services we provide can be grouped into three categories. Some services, like digital platform creation and public relations, see increased demand as companies move online and adjust their messaging strategies amid the crisis. Advertising spending will fluctuate with the economy, while services like experiential events will experience a sharp decline. Currently, experiential events account for only about 2% of our net revenue. We have a significant presence in Sweden, where the government has not imposed the same restrictions as in the US. Our operations in China have shown a strong recovery from the virus. To address the financial impact of the crisis, we undertook significant stress tests, making forecasts based on incoming data and tailoring actions to the specific circumstances of each partner. Our immediate actions included salary and hiring freezes, temporary compensation reductions for agents and leadership, substantial cuts in discretionary spending, freelance expenses, travel, entertainment costs, and some furloughs and reductions in headcount. We believe we have mitigated nearly 75% of anticipated revenue declines and expect to reduce costs by over $100 million this year. Although, like other marketing companies, we have suspended our revenue and covenant EBITDA guidance due to the pandemic's disruption on the broader economy, I wish to offer insights on what we currently anticipate. As it stands, we're preparing for organic revenue declines of approximately 10% to 15% in 2020 from the previous year, primarily due to a weaker second quarter but with some modest recovery projected in the latter half of 2020. I also expect covenant EBITDA to decline in a similar range from the previous year. I believe in transparency, especially during crises, and we will continue to monitor industry trends, client activity, and our financial performance, committing to update you quarterly through the year. Regardless of how the economic situation evolves, we will implement measures to address challenges based on our flexible cost structure, whether recovery is milder than expected or more favorable than anticipated. Furthermore, through the aforementioned cost-saving initiatives, we are taking careful steps to optimize liquidity. We have achieved significant cash flow from operations over the last four quarters. In the first quarter, we reported increased cash, improved liquidity, and lower leverage than in recent years. In April, we retired $30 million of our bonds, resulting in $2 million of annual interest expense and enhancing our shareholder equity value. As of last Friday, even with substantial earn-out payments made, we remained in a net cash position, with our $250 million revolving line undrawn aside from a precautionary draw. We do not qualify for and are not applying for any US government loans that would be forgivable. We are eligible for payroll tax deferral, which will provide us with an additional $16 million in liquidity in 2020. With the progress we have made toward our cash flow goals over the last year, I feel increasingly confident about generating cash flow post-crisis. We have clearly shown that generating $50 million or more in free cash flow annually is achievable for our business—a target I believe we will reach or exceed once this crisis is over. The financial measures we have taken in response to the crisis represent just one aspect of our efforts. Our agencies have excelled in developing new messaging, platforms, and advertising to help clients effectively communicate with their customers during this unprecedented situation. A collection of these efforts can be found at hub.mdc-partners.com. In the early days of the crisis, agencies like 72andSunny, Doner, Hecho Studios, CPB, Anomaly, and others implemented innovative solutions to ensure ongoing video production, even creating new content from licensed and user-generated materials alongside animation and motion graphics. For instance, the Doner team produced a compelling film encouraging residents of Metro Detroit to stay home and safe, all crafted remotely in just 48 hours. They also initiated new work aimed at various objectives. 72andSunny created a PSA for the NFL using footage of players at home to promote a stay-at-home message, completing the project from concept to airing in 10 days, with remote post-production via Google Hangouts. CPB also developed impactful work for Domino’s, emphasizing its commitment to customer communication during this time, and promptly launched new brand messaging for American Airlines within a week. Moreover, our agencies are driving significant initiatives globally. In Sweden, Forsman & Bodenfors teamed with Telia to provide free unlimited data for customers over 70 to stay connected with family and friends, and partnered with Volvo Cars to offer demo vehicles to healthcare workers needing safe transportation. Our digital product and design agency, YML, designed a COVID-19 testing device interface that obtained emergency FDA approval for tests to be conducted in just four to five minutes. We have also collaborated with the Harris Poll at Stagwell to keep corporate marketers updated on shifting public attitudes and consumer behavior during this crisis. These examples are just a fraction of the impressive work across our network and do not fully encompass the many crisis influencer initiatives and new brand communication platforms our PR agencies are creating. Looking ahead, our strategic plan continues to focus on transforming into a modern marketing company of choice, built on the credible creativity of our agencies while integrating what was once a disjointed group of companies into a cohesive network of talented entities ready to compete against larger, more traditional competitors as the virus situation improves. We took action to safeguard our employees and our business. When this crisis is resolved, we believe our competitive advantages will position us as a more agile and creative organization, strengthened by our restructured media and data operations, which will place us favorably against the slower, heavier giants of our industry. Now, I will hand it over to Frank Lanuto, our CFO, to discuss our financials.

Thanks, Mark. Good morning, everyone. Before I dive into our results, I want to underscore Mark's comments and reiterate that we are well-positioned to weather this crisis. The actions we took over the past 12 months to realign our agencies, improve our go-to-market strategy, and cut costs have begun to yield positive results–as evidenced by our Q1 performance. These actions also position us to respond quickly and nimbly to shifting client needs and industry dynamics, instilling confidence that we will emerge from this crisis as a stronger organization. Turning to our results, I want to begin by highlighting that our press release and our management presentation now include new segment reporting to reflect how we are managing the business. Going forward, we will report our results in three segments, including the integrated agencies network, the media and data network, and all other. We've adjusted revenue and EBITDA results from the last five quarters to align historicals with our new segment presentation, and I will provide more detail on these segments shortly. Looking at our financial results, in the first quarter, we reported revenue of $328 million, representing organic growth of 2% and a decline of less than 1% on a reported basis. This growth was primarily driven by solid performances at our large creative agencies. Excluding the impact of our Kingsdale and Sloane divestitures, our adjusted EBITDA jumped 110% in the first quarter. As reported, adjusted EBITDA increased 84% to $40 million in the quarter, aided by the cost-reduction initiatives we have executed over the past 12 months. Covenant EBITDA in the first quarter totaled $42 million, up 93% from $22 million a year ago. On a trailing 12-month basis, we reported covenant EBITDA of $201 million, up by more than 11% from Q4, fueled by our robust year-over-year Q1 results. Breaking down our performance by our new segments, the All Other and integrated agency segments experienced organic revenue growth of 7% and 1.3%, respectively, which was partially offset by a 4.5% decline in our media and data group. The adjusted EBITDA growth in the quarter was driven by a 74% increase in the integrated agencies network segment and 46% in the All Other segment, while media and data was up by $2 million compared to breakeven in the first quarter last year. As Mark stated, we have been concentrating on managing costs and identifying additional opportunities for savings. As discussed on previous calls, we eliminated $35 million of annualized costs last year, with around half of those savings realized in 2019 and the remainder being recognized in 2020, contributing significantly to our strong Q1 results. Overall, our expenses were $19 million lower this quarter compared to the same period last year, which includes a $2.1 million restructuring severance charge expected to yield an additional $10 million in savings on an annualized basis. As Mark pointed out, our assessment of the impact of COVID-19 has led to over $100 million in additional targeted cost reductions across our agencies for the remainder of the year. As conditions evolve, we will continue to take actions as required, striving to protect profit margins. Moving onto the balance sheet, as noted by Mark, we ended the first quarter with $221 million in cash, including $125 million of a preemptive draw on our revolver. Excluding this draw, we concluded the quarter with approximately $95 million in cash, the highest Q1 cash amount in several years. This was driven by robust performance during the period, which also reduced leverage at quarter-end to 4.3 times, down from 4.5 times at year-end and 5.05 times a year ago. We retain confidence in the strength of our business and the changes we have implemented over the past year. This led us to repurchase approximately $30 million of our bonds at a discount in April, paying $22 million, which reduced our net debt by $8 million and our future interest obligations by around $2 million annually. Regarding acquisition-related liabilities, we anticipate funding approximately $55 million by 2020, and through April to date, we have funded roughly $28 million—over half of the expected costs, with the largest outflow occurring in the second quarter, consistent with historical trends. Moreover, we will continue to manage our CapEx lower in 2020, as we have in recent quarters. In Q1, we reported under $2 million in CapEx, less than half of what we spent a year ago. While we will proceed with our New York real estate transformation project, we will tightly limit other CapEx expenditures. Overall, I now expect our net CapEx for 2020 to be in the range of $25 million to $30 million for the entire year. I want to take a moment to thank our employees around the country and around the world for their commitment and excellent work during these challenging conditions. Over the past six weeks, they have worked tirelessly, serving our clients, delivering innovative ideas and transformative creative work while also supporting their colleagues throughout the organization. Now I'd like to open the line for any questions you may have.

Our first question today will come from Avi Steiner of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Thank you and good morning, I hope everyone is staying healthy. I'm going to start with a somewhat backward-looking question. Can you discuss how the business progressed in the first quarter? Were there more cancellations or pulled ads in March? Specifically, do you have any sense of whether those cancellations are being deferred until later in the year or are they indeed simply being canceled? I have a few more questions to follow. Thank you.

Well, I think I mentioned during the prepared remarks that we should think of three different kinds of companies, right. There are some clients, if you look at some categories, that are just moving forward and/or finding increased demand and they'll be working to retain their new customers. Your typical companies, a lot of our clients hit the pause button on their operations. That meant that a bunch of delays occurred. There were some product cancellations or movements made if they were planning to launch a new product during this period, and those have been postponed. The psychology here has largely been one of pushback and pause with further cuts. However, I expect businesses to pivot back toward it as they reassess their budgets; that shift is already beginning to take place in early to mid-March.

Great. Your guidance suggests, like many others, that the second quarter will be the worst of the year. I think this is fairly consistent among peers. You have clearly reported some business wins like NFL and others, but could you provide more specific clarity about the severity of the upcoming quarter? What do you think would give advertisers the confidence to resume spending? Is it simply more people getting back to work or are other factors at play too? I have a couple more inquiries as well. Thanks.

Well, when hurricanes strike, you prepare and rebuild—you fix everything post-disaster. The current reality is similar to weathering a storm; this second quarter constitutes the eye of the hurricane. Following that, once things stabilize, we will likely see recovery. Marketing expenses can be swiftly reduced, but given the unique nature of this situation, once the recovery begins, spending can rebound quickly. There's a significant psychological shift from cutting marketing expenses to actively acquiring customers. Companies that have weathered previous crises understand the importance of maintaining or increasing their marketing budgets to secure market share during recovery. Mass shifts in consumer psychology will initiate this movement; signs indicate consumers are becoming less fearful of the virus and more open to returning to work. This transition will help drive demand in marketing efforts.

You mentioned higher demand for public relations as companies adopt more online strategies. Could you clarify how significant this business is for you?

I don’t think we break it out productively—Frank, do you have an idea?

Yes, it's part of our All Other segment. We don’t provide specific revenue disclosures by agency.

Understood. Frank, I’d like to clarify something regarding your cash flow statement. Your Q1 cash balances were the highest in years, even excluding the revolver's draw. Can you explain the reasons behind this improvement? Thank you.

Certainly! The strong EBITDA performance is a primary driver of this improvement, alongside improved working capital performance. Together, these factors contributed significantly. Additionally, we’ve had reduced expenditure on CapEx—less than $1.5 million for the quarter—which also helps keep cash flow strong.

Thanks for clarifying that. Regarding the bond buyback, did I hear correctly that you retired $30 million, and could you elaborate on your flexibility to engage in more buybacks if desired?

That’s correct; we executed a prudent amount for the buyback given what we were seeing in the market. We still have the flexibility to be opportunistic if bond prices remain favorable.

Understood. Just to follow up on your comment concerning working capital—is there a chance it will revert to an outflow later, or was it simply the typical seasonal flow?

No, you should expect the seasonal flows to behave normally; there were no extraordinary inflows or outflows in this quarter.

Thank you for the clarification. Lastly, regarding the revolver draw—was there a specific rationale for only drawing half? I also appreciate the helpful covenant summary you've provided in the presentation; how do you feel about your comfort level in relation to the total leverage ratio?

Sure, we forecasted our cash needs for the year, taking into account capital projects, acquisition payments, and seasonal cash flows, especially as Q2 typically softens. We opted for a conservative amount that allowed us to test the banking system while avoiding unnecessary interest expenses. It was a careful balance. As for covenants, we have substantial headroom and based on the scenarios we have analyzed, we expect to maintain ample flexibility across all our covenants.

Our next question today will come from Todd Morgan of Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Good morning, and I hope everyone is doing well. Thank you for the detailed information you've provided; it's clear you're attempting to be as transparent as possible. Could you possibly generalize about the revenue cycle you expect to see? In other words, how long does it typically take from the initial conversations with the Chief Marketing Officer about repositioning a brand through project work to production, and finally to ad placements? How well do you anticipate this cycle returning as these conversations begin to develop?

Typically, in the pre-COVID environment, marketing or advertising cycles required a six to eight-month lead time for planning. However, I expect we’ll see a rapid shortening of this cycle, possibly to a one to three-month time frame. Consequently, businesses will be searching for agencies like ours at MDC that can execute on shorter timelines. As businesses pivot, they will need to adapt rapidly to seize opportunity, especially as the selling season approaches. Many marketers may have paused their efforts and need to re-engage quickly to capture the holiday marketing opportunities ahead. There is also a surge in demand for digital work, as businesses anticipate selling more online than previously expected, which is prompting a rush toward that type of work.

Ladies and gentlemen, this will conclude our question-and-answer session. At this time, I would like to turn the conference back over to Mark Penn for any closing remarks.

Thank you. I hope everyone is safe, and I sincerely hope we witness improvement here in the United States and globally. I trust we’ve painted a clear picture of the tremendous progress we’ve made within this company and the path ahead. The situation itself has positioned us to effectively manage through this crisis and emerge, I believe, more agile and better organized than most competitors in this industry. Thank you very much for your time.

The conference has now concluded. We thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect your lines.