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Earnings call · FY2025 Q3
Executive readout · one minute
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Good morning and thank you for standing by. My name is John and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Triple Flag Precious Metals 3rd Quarter 2025 Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number 1 on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, simply press star 1 again. I would now like to turn the conference over to Sheldon van der Kuey. CEO, please go ahead.
Thanks, John. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to discuss Triple Flag's third quarter results. Today, I am joined by our CFO, Iman Bari, and our Chief Operating Officer, James Dendel. 2025 has been an exceptional year so far, and Triple Flag has achieved another record quarter in Q3. We recorded 27,000 GEOs in the quarter, which drove record adjusted EBITDA of $79 million and record operating cash flow per share of $0.39 USD. Shareholders are directly benefiting from the higher gold prices through higher cash flow per share. We should continue to benefit in Q4 and beyond as well, as current gold prices are well in excess of the average gold price realized in Q3. we expect to achieve 2025 geos between the midpoint and the high end of our 2025 guidance range i am very pleased with the additions we have made to the portfolio here today year today triple flag has now deployed over 350 million dollars of capital over five investments in h1 we announced our investments in the trey crobatis lithium mine in argentina the Arcata Silver Mine in Peru, and an additional interest in the Johnson Camp Copper Mine in Arizona, all of which have now started production either in line or ahead of our investment case. Early in the third quarter, we completed our acquisition of a 1% NSR royalty on the Arthur Project in Nevada, operated by Anglo Gold Ashanti. And most recently, we have acquired a royalty package on Pan-Americans producing Monero, Florida gold mine in Chile for $23 million. James will provide further details on Monero, Florida later in the presentation. This is exactly the sort of royalty that drives shareholder value over time in the royalty sector, as we have open-ended exposure to top-line revenues and resource expansion over time. Together, our investments year-to-date are providing near-term increasing cash flows, as well as longer dated optionality. They are also located in the right jurisdictions. The bulk of the value is in the Western United States and the remainder is in Chile, Peru and Argentina. I will now hand over to Ivan to discuss our financials for the third quarter of 2025.
Thank You Sheldon. As noted by Sheldon, we had an excellent third quarter with just over 27,000 GEOs. This puts a triple flag on track to achieve between the midpoint and high end of our 2025 GOs guide. These strong volumes in Q3 were delivered amid the backdrop of strong precious metals prices, which reached a record quarterly average of nearly $3,500 per ounce for gold and nearly $40 per ounce for silver. Accordingly, we are pleased to highlight that operating cash flow per share, the single most important metric we focus on as a company has increased by over 25 percent year over year lastly i'd like to comment on our balance sheet we exit the quarter with essentially zero net debt despite deploying significant capital during the third quarter for the acquisition of the arthur gold royalty and the monero florida royalty today we're in a net cash position overall strong balance sheet record operating cash flow and total liquidity available of nearly a billion dollars provides us with the capital to continue deploying dollars into creative opportunities to drive feature growth for shareholders it also allows us to continue returning superior returns to shareholders and we're pleased to declare a quarterly cash dividend of 5.75 cents u.s per share trip flag remains focused on top tier precious metals assets with revenue that's nearly 90 source from mining friendly jurisdictions in both australia and the americas north parks and sarah lindo continue to be two largest contributors to revenues in the third quarter with north parks achieving another record quarter due to continued processing of higher open-paid grades from stockpile door. Triple-flag sales mix remains 100% derived from precious metals, including nearly three-quarters in gold. We do not expect this to materially change, and this will continue to provide investors with exposure to the strong gold and silver price environment. I will now turn it over to James to discuss the producing Monero Florida Goldmine in Chile.
Thank you, Iban. Monero Florida is located approximately 75 kilometers southwest of Santiago in Chile and is owned and operated by Pan American Silver. It's an underground mine that produces gold and silver dore from the zinc concentrate byproduct. During the third quarter, we are pleased to acquire a package of three net smelter return royalties on monero florida ranging from 0.8 percent to 1.5 percent for a total cash consideration of 23 million dollars for a third party monero florida has a long history of consistent performance continuous operation and reserve replacement and has produced over 2.5 million answer gold and 14 million answers silver since commissioning in 1986. the mine has always operated with a relatively short reserve life. Over the last 20 years, the mine has had approximately half a million ounces of gold in reserves at any one time, which equates to about four to five years of visible reserve life. Historic annual production at Monero, Florida has ranged between 75,000 and 100,000 ounces of gold per annum. Driven by mill expansion potential to increase the nameplate capacity, TripleFlag expects to GEOs from Monero, Florida to increase to approximately 1,000 answers by 2028. The exploration potential of this mine is significant and given Monero Florida's impressive track record of reserve replacement since 1986, we see this asset continuing to perform for decades to come. I'll pass it back to Sheldon for closing remarks.
Thank you, James. In closing, Triple Flag is performing very well and is positioned to continue this performance going forward. Our shareholders are benefiting from our strong current production and the increase in gold prices, which are translating into record cash flows per share. I am very pleased at our success in reinvesting those cash flows in further streams and royalties, which will benefit our shareholders for decades to come. There are a number of near-term catalysts across our portfolio. First, Johnson Camp Mine, Trey Curbatus and Arcata have all recently started production and will continue to ramp up into 2026. Second, on the project front, economic studies for Arthur and Hope Bay are on track for completion in the first half of 2026 and we look forward to ongoing exploration updates on the Fletcher Zone from Beta Hunt.
And finally, the KONE project continues to make good progress targeting production in 2027 that concludes our presentation operator please open the floor to questions thank you ladies and gentlemen we will now begin the question and answer session as a reminder to everyone in order to ask a question please press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad and if you would like to withdraw your question simply press star one again we will pause for a moment to compile the q a roster thank you our first question comes from the line of Fahad Farik with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Hi, thanks for taking my questions. Just on the deal pipeline, maybe talk a little bit more about how the Minera Florida transaction was sourced. Was this, I mean, it was a third-party royalty from a family. Just curious if there was any sort of process or was this a relationship that was like pre-existing? Any more color there would be helpful.
Yeah, Fahad, hi, I can take this. Yeah, it was, I think, a fairly concentrated process. We developed a bit of a rapport with the family over the course of negotiating the deal, and that was good because we actually were able to undertake a site visit, and very often, as you know, with these third-party royalty sales, you can't do that, whereas we actually had a team down in Chile earlier on in the year spending a couple of days at site, so we had access to to Pan American Silver in this instance and the whole mindset team.
Okay, great. Yeah, that's helpful. And then maybe just switching gears to the ATO stream, it looks like there was an international arbitration that was started early October. Can you maybe just give us an update on how the discussions are going with STEP Gold and what's Triple Flag's expectation for a potential resolution?
Yeah, hi, it's Sheldon. I'll take this one. We tried to be really transparent in the press release and give everyone direction on the legal proceedings we've started. I'm a little limited in what I can say, but I can provide some background and direction to you in the market. First of all, I'm going to start by saying we're just extremely confident in our legal position. You know, we're owed about $10 million U.S. Steps market cap is a little over $500 million Canadian. They have production, they have cash flow, they clearly have the ability to pay. We are in dialogue with STEP's controlling shareholder. There is no doubt in my mind that they are building phase two. And the last thing I'd note is, you know, we're going to land in the top half of our guidance range, even if we don't receive a single ounce from STEP Gold, you know, here to the end of the year. I really can't go any further into how this is going to get resolved, but, you know, we are in discussions and we are very confident in our legal position.
Okay.
And then, just maybe a follow-up if you can't answer this part. you're in discussions with the largest shareholder are you in discussions directly with step gold uh i would take the largest shareholder as being in discussions with step gold okay fair enough thank you your next question comes from the line of sam overwater with scotia bank please go ahead hi good morning everybody um i just had a question on the transaction opportunities um i think the last time we spoke um you guys were evaluating opportunities between $100 and $300 million. I just wanted a little bit more color on that. What geographies and jurisdictions are these opportunities in? What are the structures of these deals, debt, equity, stream, et cetera? Is there any royalty opportunities? Then I'll talk to that too. What are a lot of the purposes of these transactions in terms of asset sales, construction, funding, et cetera?
Yeah. Hi. Thanks, Sam. I appreciate that. But yeah, the opportunity set, I think, still is squarely in the 100 to 300. Obviously, we've done deals that are smaller than that. We'll look at those. There are larger ones as well. It's probably instructive to look at what we've done already year to date. We've done $350 million of deals year to date. It's a pretty good mix of smaller royalties. Then we had the larger Arthur transaction, which is actually a corporate transaction, which is just another way to find good assets at reasonable prices for our portfolio. The opportunity set, it's a real mix. I mean, it's streams, it's royalties. I would say it's concentrated in jurisdictions that investors will be very happy with, you know, I'd say like the Americas traditional mining jurisdictions. And the use of proceeds or what's driving it, it really runs the gamut. I think you kind of summed it up pretty well. People need money for various things and that creates the opportunity for companies like ours to step in with that with with financing great thank you um and then just on top of that as well corporate transactions um how are you guys associate or assessing corporate transactions relative to sort of other opportunities in the current landscape um is there anything you're currently considering yeah i mean i don't view a big distinction between corporate transactions and other transactions i mean we we acquired that arthur royalty it was via an acquisition of origin and then a spin-out, you know, the Mavericks acquisition was a way to acquire a great portfolio at a reasonable price. So, we're always looking for ways to add good assets to our portfolio at returns that are attractive and accretive to shareholder value.
Great. Thank you. Then lastly, does Triple X Flight currently have like an equity portfolio to sell? Are you considering any sales in an equity portfolio or anything like that? No. It's all for me.
Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Brian McArthur from Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thank you for taking my question. I just wondered if you can comment a little bit on Priesta and what's going on there.
I mean, the statement, you know, Orion looks like they've signed a term sheet with Glencore, but what actually needs to happen there for you to you to move that forward post other than the you know south african regulatory approvals hi brian it's james i'll pick that up so as you'll recall friska was was contemplated as a single integrated project comprising two zones that what they refer to as the uppers which is the upper remnant areas of the historical mine and the deeps which is the sort of untouched sulfide ore body the deeps is of great interest to us because they host the precious metals it also has the exploration upside and it's the part of the ore body we're most focused on the company through looking to stage their capital expenditures and disaggregated the project to the uppers which they'll develop first the deeps that they'll develop progressively thereafter there is a dewatering component to that and as you noted they've receives I think a very supportive non-binding lesson from Glencore which they're working through at the moment so that that is all very positive given our primary economic interest is in the deeps we will be evaluating the right but not obligation to fund the stream into deeps when they actually are at the stage to make a final investment decision on that project so we expect the company to make investments on the upper this year and an investment decision in the deeps next year. So as a reminder, we have no obligation to fund the stream, but we like the asset. So it's a funding decision for triple flag in 2026.
But just to be clear, so can you, I mean, can they develop the upper, if you think of it that way, with the money they have, and you just get the option to wait and then just come in on the lower, or do you have to execute once they make the decision to do the upper, if I want to look at it that way. That's what I'm trying to figure out.
I get it.
You have the option to do it or not to do it, but I don't know if there's a drop-dead part of the contract that makes you decide or whether you can wait and see how the second part goes, if you see what I'm saying.
Yeah, we can wait until the second part's ready to go. But the nice thing is that the company will be progressing with the dewatering for the deeps while mining the uppers so that they continue to de-risk and develop the project whilst we get the opportunity to wait to make the investment decision on the deeps. So there's no drop dead in that sense. We just have the opportunity to wait a little longer. You'll recall we have a small royalty on the projects as a whole. So on the upper start producing, obviously the royalty will pay because that applies to work zones.
Great. Thanks very much, James. That's very clear now. Yeah, no problem.
Your next question comes from the line of Derek Small with TD Cabin. Please go ahead.
Thank you. On the El Machido stream disposal, you got a fair amount of consideration, so perhaps a win-win situation for both parties, but could you discuss how the situation arose and how you evaluate these types of situations versus retaining optionality in the portfolio?
Yeah, sure, Derek. It's Sheldon. I'll speak to that. El Machido is a fairly small mine. It's based in Honduras. We acquired it as part of the Mavericks portfolio. It was undercapitalized, and they were having difficulty servicing the stream as part of their operations. Eventually, what we did, and we're close to the operator, they're a private company, and we were looking for ways to get additional capital that was not our capital into that project so they could be in a position to start paying out on the stream. Basically, I think this was a win-win-win situation where we found the outside capital. They're bringing that in. And then we're structuring ourselves to come out on these terms. It's good value for us. And I think it allows them to move forward without the stream in place.
How do you evaluate these type situations versus the retaining optionality when you look across your portfolio when other opportunities come up?
I mean, every situation is different. I think I put it this way. I'm very happy with the structure of this and the way this is being resolved. It's getting us good value out. It allows them to go on. Generally, we're not looking at selling streams, but this is essentially a structured sale of a stream. But it's really based on an asset-by-asset basis. Okay, Claire, thank you.
Once again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. Our next question comes from the line of Cosmos 2 with CIBC. Please go ahead.
Thanks, Sheldon, Eben, and James. Maybe my first question is on Minera, Florida. James, you mentioned that you were on site. My understanding is that this past quarter or this past year, there's been some issues in terms of negative grade reconciliation, unplanned mine sequencing into lower grade ore zones. I think you mentioned that as much as well in your guidance. You said I think Minara Florida long term was capable of doing 75,000 to 100,000 ounces this past year, 78,000 to 90,000, so the top end is lower. So I guess my question is, James, how much of that have you factored in into your valuation, and is it just really a one-off and it's really going to bounce back, or how do you look at it?
Yeah, Carlos, good question. you know the valuation and the production assumptions over a short period of time of course you know you consider what's actually happening on the short term as a guide for long term but the interesting thing is that you know about Monero Flores is there's a very very long history of operations here so we actually had access full history of production records that gave us great confidence in in the forecast and at the end of the day um you know quarterly variance in a gold mine is not a new thing so for sure there's quarterly variance and you know month on a month scale um that exists and i'm sure it will occur in the future but in the long term we think the
mine will operate in accordance to how it's operated historically which is in the range we stated of course thanks um maybe switching gears a little bit uh bigger picture you know shelter as you mentioned it reiterated in the uh in your release as well 2029 guidance outlook outlook is you're still looking for 135 to 145 000 ounces geos that's a very good increase for what level you're at today could you maybe you know summarize for us what goes into that thinking you know what needs to come on for you to hit that growth into 2029?
Yeah, sure. I can take that. We've got a few assets ramping up. There's some newer assets too. Sheldon mentioned the Akata silver mine. That is literally ship concentrate for the first time this week. That'll be ramping up into 2026. There are other assets, obviously adding Monero Florida, small edition, 3Q, Johnson Camp, all ramping up. Montage is building Kone, which will be additive to that outlook, but there's also, we expect production increases from some of the operating mines. We expect after a lower year next year from North Park to start building back up again. We expect increased volumes from RV Platts, although incremental. Same with Beta Hunt, Westgold has been very public with an expansion to Beta Hunt 2 million tons per annum, which is on track. So all of those additions build up to the Outlook number. So there isn't one specific asset that drives that increase. It's actually nicely diversified across a large suite of well-positioned assets.
Great. And then maybe one last question. The 2025 GOs, the gold-silver ratio you've used is 85 to 1 in terms of the calculation to geos converting silver into gold um i just want to confirm you know silver has actually outperformed a little bit um compared to gold into 2025 um that benefits um triple flag am i correct in the sense that i think there's a good percentage of your revenue actually coming from silver that's number one number two it also benefits your geo calculation if i'm not mistaken if you can confirm that as well. And then third, when do you consider, I guess, changing that ratio? Or, you know, I guess it's not too late in 2025. It's not needed in 2025. But how do you consider that into 2026?
Hey, Kaz, it's Sheldon. I'll take that. You know, 85 to 1, that's pretty close to what it is right now. Obviously, it's volatile. It moves around. It's been various places during the year. I think year to date, and you're right, obviously, as the silver price is stronger relative to the gold price that helps GEOs and the opposite when the opposite occurs. The year as a whole, we've actually had a bit of a headwind on the average silver price because just the timing of when the silver price ran. And I think that's come across in ourselves and all our peers. We always make an allowance for that. We're pretty conservative when trying to set our guidance. And so we just accommodated that within our production. Right now it's coming in line. And in terms of assessing it, I mean, every time we put out a new guidance or anything like that, we look at what the current gold-silver ratio is and make sure we're not too far out of line, and that is properly conservative. Obviously, when we do our 2026 guidance, we'll look at what the conditions are at that time and react accordingly.
Yep. Sounds like a good plan. I guess the important part, Sheldon, as you mentioned, is that you're now aiming for the top-ended guidance. so for 2020 that's right perfect yeah and you can take some gold silver prices all the way through yep amazing thanks sheldon then even and james for answering all my questions and uh congrats on a solid q3 hey thanks guys at this time we have no further questions i will now turn the call over to sheldon vanderquay for closing remarks yeah thanks everyone uh q3 was another good quarter, and we're actually having just a great year in 2025.
Really appreciate the support from all of our investors. Thank you all. Bye.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect your lines. We thank you for your participation. Have a...
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