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Earnings call · FY2025 Q4
Executive readout · one minute
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Management tone
Confident
Net tone +82 · low hedging
Forward guidance
3 guided metrics
Management's latest ranges and targets are included below.
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Stated verbally and extracted from the transcript.
| Metric | Period | Guided | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Depletion
2026
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$65M – $75M | — | |
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G&A costs
2026
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$30M – $32M | — | |
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Australian cash tax rate
2026
|
25% | — |
How the reported period landed and where the business moved.
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Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Desiree and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the triple flag Precious Metals 4th Quarter 2025 conference call. All lines have your place on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number 1 on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw a question again, press the star 1. I would now like to turn the conference over to Sheldon Bandercoy, CEO. You may begin.
Thank you, Desiree. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to discuss Triple Flag's fourth quarter and full year 2025 results. Today, I am joined by our Chief Financial Officer, Iban Bari, and Chief Operating Officer, James Dendl. Triple Flag had an outstanding year in 2025 and is extremely well positioned in 2026. We finished the year strong in Q4, resulting in record performance for full year 2025. We achieved record production of 113,000 GEOs. This was in the upper half of our guidance range and is the ninth consecutive year-over-year increase. Higher production and higher gold prices translated into record cash flow. Cash flow per share was $1.54 per share, a 45% increase from 2024. The model is working as it is intended, directly translating higher gold prices into rising cash flow per share. We continue to benefit from rising prices in 2026. In Q4, the average gold price was $4,135 an ounce, well below current spot prices of just under $5,000 per ounce. Moving ahead to 2026, our guidance range is 95,000 to 105,000 GEOs, which reflects the well-understood mine sequencing at North Parks. It also reflects the planned step-down in the Cerro Lindo stream rate, following a successful delivery of 19.5 million ounces of silver since we acquired the stream in 2016. That was TripleFlag's first investment. We continue to see a long life ahead for Sarah Lindo with strong exploration potential as well as exposure to the silver price going forward. Our portfolio has significant embedded growth. Our 2030 outlook is that production in 2030 will grow to between 140,000 to 150,000 GEOs. This is approximately a 45% growth from the midpoint of our 2026 guidance. This is driven by multiple assets advancing through construction, permitting, and study stages, including Arcata, Kone, Eskay Creek, Eridurata, and Goldfield. Importantly, it is not dependent on any one large project. Looking beyond 2030, we have meaningful GEO growth potential from a number of large-scale assets located in the best jurisdictions. Australia, the United States, and Canada. First, Hope Bay is located in northern Canada, and Hope and Agnico has stated that it is progressing towards a construction decision, which is expected in May of 2026. Second, Sentara released a positive PEA on KMES, targeting potential production in 2031. KMES is located in British Columbia. Third is the Arthur Project in Nevada, where Angla Gold is expected to imminently release a pre-feasibility study which i am quite eager to see last and most significantly is our flagship asset north parks located in australia which is clearly positioned as a significant growth asset for triple flag i want to congratulate lori conway and the evolution team for all the success they have had at north parks since they have acquired north parks it is truly impressive a week ago evolution released a significant update on north parks which has three related catalysts for triple flag first evolution approved the development of the e22 block cave e22 has very attractive gold grades for triple flag and block cave development is the value maximizing approach for both evolution and triple flag second evolution has announced that it is studying expanding north parks from the current 7.6 million tons per annum to 10 million tons per annum or potentially more there is tremendous demand for copper and north parks is a very large resource so the potential value creation of an expansion is clear this could be very beneficial to the triple flag stream and last evolution has identified a very attractive gold-only deposit on the property named e44 we had constructive discussions with lori and kieran and their team and together we came to an agreement that will allow for the development of E44 which was previously not included in Evolution's Life of Mine plan at North Parks. As part of that agreement Triple Flag will receive guaranteed minimum deliveries from E44 starting in 2030. North Parks is a by-product stream so the potential to also benefit from primary gold deposits is a fantastic bonus for Triple Flag and its shareholders. Although these factors together clearly positioned North Parks as a growth asset for TripleFlag for the next decade to come. I'd also like to touch on our capital deployment in 2025. TripleFlag invested over $350 million in value accretive deals. This included the Arcata restart and ramp-up in Peru, the Arthur oxide project in Nevada, the Johnson Camp mine that is ramping up in Arizona, and the Monero Florida producing mine in Chile. These transactions provide current and growing cash flow, or, in the case of Arthur, represent exposure to a premier development project with a clear path to production and further exploration upside. Importantly, all of these assets are also located in mining-friendly jurisdictions. Overall, TripleFlag is exceptionally well-positioned to deliver long-term and organic value for our shareholders from a diversified portfolio of producing and development assets across premier mining jurisdictions. I will now turn it over to Eban to discuss our financial results for 2025.
Thank you, Sheldon. As you can see on this slide, 2025 was a record year across all financial metrics, driven by strong geos and record precious metals prices as sheldon noted these record prices have soon been broken by new records with spot gold and silver well above even the q4 average operating cash flow per share the single most important metric we focus on as management increased 45 to dollar 54 per share this metric best reflects the underlying operating performance of our core streaming and royalty business. This strong cash flow generation continued to support all of our capital allocation priorities given our high margin business, including shareholder returns and external growth opportunities. On shareholder returns, we paid out nearly $46 million in dividends to shareholders in 2025, which reflected a progressive 5% dividend increase in the middle of the year. our fourth consecutive increase since our IPO. In addition to our dividend, we were active and creative on our share buyback during the year. In 2025, we bought back $9 million US of our shares and opened market at approximately $17.39 per share. We expect to remain active on our NCIB opportunity, opportunistically going forward. On external growth front, as Sheldon mentioned, we reinvested over $350 million into new streams and royalties in 2025. Arcata, Arthur, Johnson Kemp Mine and Minair Florida all provide either immediate or near to medium term cash flow, significant exploration potential and exposure to premier mining jurisdictions with strong own operators. I'm pleased to highlight that even with this level of capital deployment and as a result of our strong cash generation, TripleFlag is debt-free at year-end with more than $70 million in cash and a billion dollars available on our credit facility. We remain well-positioned to deploying capital into transactions that are creative, fit with our strategy, and deliver value throughout the cycle moving forward to 2026 guidance as sheldon noted we expect geos of between 95 000 and 105 000 ounces for the year we expect these geos to be all derived from gold and silver and reflect a conservative gold to silver price ratio of 72 for the whole year with a lower ratio assumed in the first half depletion is expected to be between 65 million and 75 million dollars slightly lower than 2025, reflecting the sales mix we expect in 2026. G&A costs are expected to be between $30 and $32 million, consistent with our actual expenses in 2025 that reflect the impact of Triple Flags' strong share price increase throughout the year on share-based compensation expense. Finally, our Australian cash tax rate for Australian royalties will be approximately 25%, consistent with prior year actual. I will now pass it on to James to discuss our asset portfolio.
Thank you, Eben. TripleFlag has achieved a consistent track record delivering long-term GEO's growth since our first full year of operation in 2017. Beyond the guidance we have set for 2026, we see further organic growth to 140,000 to 150,000 GEOs in 2030. Midpoint to midpoint, this represents angst growth of 45% from 2026 guidance, which I'll discuss further on the following slide. A long-term organic growth outlook of 100,000 to 150,000 GEOs in 2030 is robust. reflects the achievement of several de-risking milestones delivered by our operators over the past 12 months. We are seeing meaningful progress across the portfolio supported not only by constructive commodity price environments but also by favorable permitting regimes across the jurisdictions to which we have exposure. Arcata, Kone, SK Creek, Eridurada, Goldfield, South Railroad and Delamar are a few examples of the many assets in our portfolio that are advancing rapidly towards production or steady-state ramp-up over the medium term touching on only a few of them we were exceptionally pleased to see in 2025 the sk creek project in british columbia received full permits in less than one year after submission aura minerals receive a construction license for erradurada within one year of its acquisition and centera's renewed focus on the goldfield project as a straightforward heap leach operation in nevada beyond 2030 our portfolio is expected to deliver further geos growth from arthur chemess hope bay as well as the growth initiatives at north parks which i'll discuss in the following slides beyond 2030 arthur chemess hope bay and north parks represent world-class long life assets located in the most stable and established mining jurisdictions. They provide substantial growth potential beyond our 2030 outlook and demonstrate the quality of Triple Flags portfolio. At Arthur, we see the imminent release of a pre-feasibility study by Anglo Gold as an important catalyst in providing greater insights on the potential of this district scale system, starting with the Merlin and Silicon deposits as straightforward oxide open pit projects. Arthur will be a cornerstone asset for TripleFlag in the 2030s. At Comesse, TripleFlag holds a 100% silver screen. The January 2026 preliminary economic assessment supports a large-scale copper-gold-silver operation reaching production by 2031, leveraging existing brownfield infrastructure and permits from the previous mining operation. notably the pea mine plan only represents 47 of the total indicated and inferred resources providing potential upside for future answers to be included in subsequent economic studies a pfs the chemist is expected in 2027 at hope bay our one percent nsr royalty covers a district scale gold system on an asset operated by agnico eagle the premier canadian arctic underground miner. In their year-end results from last week Agneco noted that annual gold production is expected to be 400 to 425,000 ounces with a potential construction decision in May 2026 and a potential restart in 2030. I'll go into more detail on North Parks on the next page. North Parks is Triple Flag's largest asset. It's an established high quality copper gold operation in australia operated by evolution mining numerous growth projects have recently been approved that sheldon referred to which unlock the value from this world-class copper gold endowment currently the e48 sub-level cave is ramping up and supports near-term gold production growth over the medium term the e22 ore body will be advanced as a block cave a large, low-cost operation with initial production by 2030. During this timeframe, the E44 gold-dominant deposit will also be advanced production. This is an all-body not previously included in Evolution's Life of Mine plans. Minimum guaranteed deliveries will commence in 2030 for a period of seven years, with potential for meaningful life extensions beyond this initial period. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, is the potential for mill expansion to at least 10 million tons per annum, which is currently being studied over the next year. We believe that this potential expansion is the optimal path forward to unlock the value from not only the 550 million tons of current measured and indicated resources, but other prospective and underexplored targets that could materially add to the expected production profile with the improved scale and processing optionality. These growth projects demonstrate that North Parks is not a static asset. It's a dynamic, world-class mining operation with lots of embedded optionality that will drive value for decades to come. I'll now pass back to Sheldon for closing remarks.
Thank you, James. After delivering record performance in 2025, Triple Flag is in an exceptionally strong position as we look ahead to 2026 and beyond. We have a clear and de-risk pathway to robust growth of 140,000 to 150,000 GEOs in 2030. Our project pipeline progressed very well in 2025 and now in 2026. Beyond 2030, Triple Flag shareholders can expect significant additional GEO growth from long-life district-scale assets, including at North Parks, Arthur, Kmesse, and Hope Bay, all from projects with clear line of sight to production, a top-tier operator, and located in Australia, Canada, or the United States. North Parks is our cornerstone asset and is clearly positioned as a growth asset over the next decade. On the deal front, we deployed over $350 million in 2025 across multiple accretive transactions, demonstrating our ability to source and execute on high-quality opportunities that deliver compounding per-share growth from good assets, good regions, and good operators. Our balance sheet remains pristine. We exited 2025 debt-free and with over $1 billion in total liquidity, providing us with substantial financial flexibility to continue pursuing accretive growth opportunities as well as to allocate capital to progressively growing returns to shareholders. That concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, please open the floor to questions.
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you have dialed in and would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and join the queue. If you would like to withdraw your question, simply press star 1 again. If you are called upon to ask your question and are listening to your speakerphone on your device, please pick up your handset to ensure that your phone is not on mute when asking your question. Again, press star 1 to join the queue. Our first question comes from the line of Cosmos Chu with CIDC. Your line is open.
Thanks, Sheldon, Yban, and James. Maybe my first question is at North Parks. Great to see that you're investing more money into North Parks at the Y44 deposit. I guess my question is, are there more opportunities like that in terms of, you know, something similar to E44 gold rich, something that would not be in the mine plant unless there's a partner coming in and helping to put up some of the CapEx? And then maybe if we can also talk about the geological setting, because it must be a very clear variety of different geological settings here. If there are copper-rich deposits and gold-rich deposits, I'm just trying to figure out where some of these gold-rich deposits came from.
Yeah, thanks, Cosmos. This is Sheldon. I'll start and then pass it over to James. so historically the north parks property you know had gold deposits kind of shallow surface gold deposits was very interesting now of course when we came in and did the stream we really did the stream as a byproduct stream uh you know which which works we get about 60 percent of the gold revenue that evolution gets from from north parks and that works if the primary revenue is the copper but for uh but if it's gold only we had to come to the table with uh with with uh lori and the team and and work something out but this is really exciting for us because the idea of getting you know a gold only deposit there and us also having access to that was that was really key there's nothing else right now on the horizon but
is there a potential there well I'll let James speak to that but there have been you know gold dominant deposits on that property in the past yeah because as James Sheldon noted that the first mining at North Parks is actually as you probably remember the mid 90s as a gold project and it was actually first explored with shallow holes for gold mineralization so there is a history there but it very clearly transitioned to a copper deposit for the last you know 25 years or so so when you think about it geologically yes that the gold is clearly associated with the copper and and it's a very prospective region and I think what we're seeing with evolution is exactly what we hoped when they acquired the asset they think very expansively and very creatively about how to maximize value from operations I think that's been a big part of their success with assets like Ernest Henry and they're applying the same approach to North Parks which is to say you know there's a lot of resource let's look at expanding capacity and then with that expanded capacity but what else can we do with it which has caused them to really look at the gold deposits in a way that wasn't done in the past and the short answer is you know E44 is the the most known. But there are a large number of targets across the property that are sort of known from some of the historical work, but have not been tested and defined in a systematic manner, which I think really speaks to the opportunity to find more of this hyperminerization, which with the expanded milk capacity, pollution can take a bondage of.
Great. That's great to hear, james and then maybe my next question is uh you know taking a step back here in the royalties and streaming uh industry we've now seen recently some billion dollar deals or even multi-billion dollar deals uh i know sheldon you mentioned that you deployed about 300 million dollars last year but in terms of these billion dollar deals multi-billion dollar deals is that something that uh triple flag could be interested in could be competitive in or you know is that slightly too large for you at this point in time hi cause we've always said that like our sweet spot is really in the you know 200 to 500 million dollar range and i don't think that that changes and
when you look back you know triple flag actually is coming up on our 10th anniversary over the last 10 years the vast majority of the capital deployment in the sector has been in you know that strike zone, so I feel really good about that. There was a large deal done earlier this week, and $4.3 billion is too big for triple flag. I think that's okay, but there's plenty out there, I think, that we can grow and deploy on. Again, relative to our size, I think we definitely have an ability to grow because when you look at the size of triple flag and $350 million of deployment, that's meaningful. If we do a $400 million deal, that moves the needle for Triple Flag, and I think that'll do very well by our shareholders.
Great. And then maybe one last question. As you talk about the different growth opportunities within your portfolio, I guess one asset you did not mention was Pumpkin Hollow. I know there's a bit of history behind it, but now it seems like Pumpkin Hollow has a new owner, Quintera, and they seem to have, you know, be able to raise a lot of capital.
So, you know, Pumpkin Hollow, once again, is this something that we should start talking about is there something that we should start getting excited about or is it too still too early at this point in time yeah so we retain a royalty on the pumpkin hollow open pit and um that actually i think looks like a really nice royalty because that is copper in the united states and we're we're a royalty and we're on title and that's you know survived all the processes that went on there so i am quite keen to see what quintero is doing there and that represents some very nice copper exposure from the United States for Triple Flag shareholders. Triple Flag will not be investing any more money in Pumpkin Hollow. I'll say that clearly.
Great. Thanks again, Sheldon, James, and Yuban. Those are all the questions I have. Thank you.
Thanks, guys.
Our next question comes from the line of Tanya, Jacuzco, Nick with Scotiabank. Your line is open. Great.
Good morning, everybody. Can you hear me?
I can. Hi, Tanya.
Oh, good morning. Hello. I have a couple of questions, if I could. Start with a very easy one. Can, you know, I know that you use a very different ratio. I just, you know, just kind of want to assume like a flat gold price, flat silver price, et cetera. Can you give us just an idea of how the year is going to look right from a quarterly perspective? You know, we have some step downs, we have other things happening, so I'm just trying to understand how should we think first half, second half, et cetera.
Yeah, hi, Tonya. We give our annual guidance. We're not going to break it down by the quarters, and you've kind of correctly identified the one factor, which is the Sierra Lindo step down will occur sometime in the second quarter, we believe, but can't give any more quarterly guidance over and above that. okay um what about the capital returns i think those are are you know you focus on the dividend and you like the fact that you progressively increase that dividend how should we be thinking about it for mid-year yeah i think nothing's changed on our philosophy on capital allocation so you know as you cited uh we we have a progressively increasing dividend we've increased it every year since it's been public uh i see no reason why we would change that i think
it's very uh it goes over very well with uh with shareholders um so that's the dividend and then you know we're looking to deploy uh capital into accretive opportunities for shareholders that's it's really that simple okay and in terms of the opportunities i think you mentioned that 200 to 500 million range being your sweet spot and seeing some bigger deals so i have a couple of questions on this front the first thing is i've noted that two people shopping in their own closet in Wheaton. Are there any other things to do in shopping in your own closet? Any other opportunities on assets you own?
That's an analogy I haven't heard before. I like it.
I shop in the closet all the time, by the way, Sheldon.
It's natural when you have a relationship with a party or you already have a position in a property, that those were the things you look to. And with North Parks, that was obviously a natural for us. And would we look for other opportunities like that? Yeah, perhaps. But these things, they're never done until they're done. And I don't want to start front running anything. But we try to engage closely with all of our partners.
And in terms of opportunities that are out there, Would you say most of them now are focused on asset bills, or are the royalty portfolios still available? We saw one last night as well. Anything, any color on opportunities that are out there?
You know, it's going to be the same answer as has been received by, I think, everyone for the last little while. There's a variety. You know, there's third-party assets that are coming up for sale. There's people looking for financing for various things, you know, and that can be development or that could be other reasons. It's I wouldn't say there's any like one big thematic out there. And it's kind of our job, you know, just to look at the opportunity set and try to generate some of our opportunity set as well. So I wouldn't say there is any kind of one sort of theme that I'm seeing out there. The opportunity set looks pretty robust to me. And I think we've seen, you know, not just ourselves, but other people deploy, you know, I think that bodes well for the sector as a whole.
Okay. And then we've seen some very big silver opportunities. Are there any smaller ones that fit that $200 to $500 million range that you're seeing out there?
Yeah. And, again, I wouldn't consider $200 to $500 to be small for a company of a triple flag size. That would be quite meaningful. There's silver opportunities. There's also gold opportunities. out there um you know i think our focus is always probably gold first silver second um but you know we like precious metals and you know if it's a good silver asset or a good old assets we really want to be on good assets with good operators yeah take taken when i met the smallest silver opportunities that was relative to the 4.3 billion so it was a relative yeah most things are small relative to $4.3 billion.
All right, no worries. I'll leave the room for someone else to ask questions. Thank you for taking my question.
Thanks, Tanya.
Next question comes from the line of Brian MacArthur with Raymond James. Your line is open.
Good morning, and thank you for taking my question. Could you just give us an update on ATO and maybe if you assumed any contribution this year, And then as you go back to 2030, what you're thinking, i.e. expansion or baseline, if you could just give us an update on that, it would be great.
Yeah, hi, Brian and Sheldon. I'll answer that one. Look, ATO is in litigation. We've been quite out front with the market on that. We feel very confident in our position. And, you know, that process is kind of going to the court, so I can't say too much. But what I will say, and I think this is really pertinent, I'm glad you asked the question. We took it out of our 2026 guidance, and we took it out of the 2030 five-year as well. So that doesn't reflect our confidence and our position, but rather we just wanted to remove it as a potential distraction for investors to have to get a handle on. So when you look at those figures we put out for 2026 and for 2030, there's zero contribution from ATO in there, and ATO is only upside, not downside, relative to those figures. Great.
Thanks very much, Sheldon. Very clear.
Thanks, Ryan.
That concludes the question and answer session. I would like to turn the call back over to our CEO, Sheldon Van Der Kooij.
Thank you very much. I really appreciated speaking with everyone and looking forward to a great 2026.
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining in. You may now disconnect.