Skip to main content
TXG $88.76 -1.77%
TXG logo
TXG · 10x Genomics, Inc.
Track TXG — free
$88.76 -1.60 (-1.77%) At close · Oct 1
Market Cap
$11.17B
Shares
130.29M
Volume · Oct 1 3.25M Avg daily vol (3M) 3.03M
All webcasts

Earnings call · FY2025 Q3

10x Genomics, Inc. (TXG) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Concluded Nov 6, 2025 Audio replay
Nov 6, 2025 49:23 48 turns
Period
FY2025 Q3
Runtime
49:23
Sources
4 artifacts

Listen and read together

Transcript & audio

The spoken word highlights as audio plays. Select any word to seek to that moment.

49:23 Audio
Operator

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the 10x Genomics 3rd Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been faced on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press the star followed by the number 1 on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press the star one again. Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference over to Cassie Cornu. Senior Director, Investor Relations, and Strategic Finance. You may begin.

Cassie Corneau Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Earlier today, 10X Genomics released financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025. If you have not received this news release or would like to be added to the company's distribution list, please send an email to investors at 10xgenomics.com. An archived webcast of this call will be available on the Investor tab of the company's website, AnnexGenomics.com, for at least 45 days following this call. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that management will make statements during this call that are forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. These statements involve material risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results or events to materially differ from those anticipated, and you should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional information regarding these risks, uncertainties, and factors that could cause results to differ appears in the press release 10x Genomics issued today. And in the documents and reports filed by 10x Genomics from time to time, the Securities and Exchange Commission. 10X Genomics disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any financial projections or forward-looking statements, whether because of new information, future events, or otherwise. Joining the call today are Serge Saxonoff, our CEO and co-founder, and Adam Taich, our Chief Financial Officer. We will host a question and answer session after our prepared remarks. We ask analysts to please keep to one question so that we may accommodate everyone in the queue. With that, I will now turn the call over to Serge.

Thanks, Kathy, and good afternoon, everyone. We exceeded the top end of our guidance range in the third quarter with total revenue of $149 million. Our team delivered a solid quarter, executing well in the midst of continuing macro challenges. Despite ongoing funding pressures and policy uncertainty, we saw sustained enthusiasm for our products with momentum in both single-cell and spatial. The positive trends we highlighted in the first half of the year continued this quarter. Spatial consumables had another robust quarter of double-digit year-over-year revenue growth, driven by continued strong demand for genuine consumables. We again saw sustained growth in both the number of runs and the average spend per run. We frequently hear from customers how much they love Xenium, both for its exceptional performance and for the breadth of applications unlocked by the platform. Within single cell, while consumable revenue was down year over year, we again saw double-digit Tromium consumables reaction growth year over year. Our flex and on-chip multiplexing assays have been key drivers of this growth. Both of them deliver configurations with lower price per sample, which has been opening up new customers and new use cases for single cell. On-chip multiplexing is particularly well-suited for applications requiring fewer cells and for getting started with single cell. Because of that, It has been great for bringing new customers into the ecosystem. Flex has many benefits and is becoming the default single-cell assay for many of our customers. It is also particularly well-suited for translational studies and massively scaled experiments, which are two of the most promising directions for single-cell growth going forward. Finally, we ended the quarter with $482 million on the balance sheet, reflecting our own ongoing commitment, cost management, and cash generation. This strong position provides us with both the flexibility to navigate the current environment and the resources to strategically invest in innovation and long-term growth. We're staying extra close to our customers as they navigate persistent funding uncertainty. While the pace of news flow has moderated compared to earlier in the year, standing behavior remains cautious, particularly for capital expenditures. We expect these conditions to remain largely unchanged in the near term and we will stay flexible in how we work with customers to support their ongoing research. While the macro environment remains challenging, we remain focused on advancing our innovation roadmap and driving greater adoption of our products. Our latest product launches and partnerships illustrate how we're executing on these priorities. Last week, we began shipping the next generation of Chromium Flex. As I mentioned earlier, our Flex assay is becoming the default single cell assay for many of our customers. It combines exceptional sensitivity, robustness, and scalability, all at a low cost. Our next generation Flex further improves these qualities and also enables streamlined, automation-friendly plate-based workflows. The product represents a step change in scale, enabling massive perturbation screens and supporting AI-driven initiatives such as virtual cell modeling. We also developed and validated our scalable FFP dissociation protocol, which scales easily to 96 well plates. The protocol improves efficiency and throughput for high-volume studies and strengthens the assay's value in large-scale translational research. Feedback from early access customers has been phenomenal and we're eager to see how more researchers apply the new flex across a wide range of studies. We were also excited to start shipping Xenium protein earlier in Q3. It is a powerful new addition to the Xenium platform that allows researchers to detect RNA and proteins in the same cell and on the same tissue section, all in a single automated run. By reducing the need for separate workloads, technologies, or tissue sections, Xenium Protein simplifies experimental design and allows researchers to move more quickly from experiment to insight. As a first-of-its-kind capability, Xenium Protein represents a major leap forward, enabling comprehensive multimodal insights, streamlining workflows and accelerating translational discovery. We're also seeing an increasing number of customers using Xenu together with Chromium The combination of highly precise spatial measurements and robust whole transcriptome analysis provides a powerful approach for biomarker discovery in FFPE samples. This is a great example of the value that our portfolio strategy delivers to our customers. Now, stepping back, the landscape of spatial biology has evolved significantly over the past few years. In the early days, there is broad uncertainty across the field about which applications would be best served by sequencing-based methods, like Visium, and which by imaging-based approaches, like Xenium. Now that Xenium has been in the hands of researchers for some amount of time, that picture is becoming more clear. We now see a strong and growing preference for image-based analysis. This is a reflection of both how well Xenium works and the abundance of insights that scientists are gaining from using the platform. Based on customer feedback and the results we're seeing in the field, we increasingly see Xenium as the best solution for most of researchers' spatial needs. In addition to advancing our product roadmap, we're focused on unlocking the full potential of our current products by removing barriers to adoption and driving broader access. Data analysis has long been one of the biggest bottlenecks in single-cell and spatial research. Our recent partnership with Anthropic helps address this issue and makes analysis more accessible by integrating it with CLOD for Life Sciences. To cloud, researchers cannot perform common analytical tasks through a conversational interface that complements our existing computational workflows. This intuitive approach makes it faster and easier for researchers to engage directly with their data. We believe this partnership is the first step towards addressing the analysis bottleneck to make our technologies more accessible to an ever broader community of scientists. While single-cell and spatial have been a transformative engine for scientific discovery, going forward, we believe there is an especially large and growing opportunity in translational research and ultimately in clinical applications. A great example of this is our recent collaboration with CLICI and the Weizmann Institute on a peri-blood clinical trial. Using chromium to profile thousands of individual cells from blood samples, this new study built on a groundbreaking discovery recently published in Nature Medicine, where Klyseek and Weizmann researchers identified a unique circulating cell signature capable of detecting hematologic disorders with remarkable accuracy. Her clinical trials use a single cell to validate, refine, and amplify that proof of concept, uncovering molecular signals that traditional blood tests may miss and determining whether bone marrow biology can be accurately assessed through circulating cells. This work represents a promising step toward more accessible and less invasive diagnostics and improving clinical decision making. Finally, we're continuing to see increasing momentum around virtual cell efforts and large perturbation studies. Described as a holy grail of science, the virtual cell is an AI model trained on massive amounts of data meant to simulate the workings of individual cells. Multiple groups are now generating large-scale 10x single cell data to train algorithms as initial steps toward the virtual cell vision. There's strong reasons to expect that scaling of data will result in vastly more capable models, as it has in just about every other application of artificial intelligence. These models hold the promise of transforming science, drug discovery, and ultimately human health. We believe that virtual cell efforts represent one of the most important trends in biology in the coming years, and we anticipate that our technologies will keep powering these efforts as they keep scaling by orders of magnitude. The strong resonance of our innovations with customers and the expansion of our tools into translational research and large-scale experiments reinforces our conviction in the foundational role of single cell and spatial in advancing science and health. We firmly believe that this is still very early days for our technologies. With that, I'll turn the call over to Adam to review the financials.

Thank you, Serge. I'll start by reviewing our financial results for the three months ended September 30, 2025, and then we'll provide further details on our outlook for the fourth quarter. All figures and growth rates provided will be on a year-over-year basis, unless otherwise noted. As Serge mentioned, we exceeded the top end of our guidance range, and total revenue for the third quarter was $149 million. This was down 2% year-over-year and up 2% sequentially, excluding one-time license and royalty revenue in the second quarter. As anticipated, revenue from scale was not material and accounted for less than $1 million. dollars. Total consumables revenue was 127.9 million dollars, up one percent. Chromium consumables revenue was 92.5 million dollars, down four percent, primarily driven by lower average selling prices. Spatial consumables revenue was 35.4 million dollars, up 19 percent, primarily driven by Xenium consumables revenue. Moving on to instruments, total instrument revenue was $12 million, down 37%. Chromium instrument revenue was $4.9 million, down 36%, and spatial instrument revenue was $7.1 million, down 38%, both driven primarily by lower average selling prices. Services revenue was $8.1 million, up 29%, primarily due to an increase in Xenium service plants. Looking at our revenue by geography, America's revenue was $79.9 million, down 9% from the prior year, driven by continued uncertainty in the U.S. academic and government funding environment. Excluding settlement impacts from Q2, America's was up 1% sequentially. EMEA revenue was $41.6 million, up 10% from the prior year, and up 20% sequentially, primarily driven by strong spatial consumables performance. APAC revenue was $27.5 million, up 6% year-over-year and down 14% sequentially due to the previously mentioned Q2 customer-driven pull forward in China. Turning to the rest of the income statement, gross profit for the third quarter was $100.3 million compared to $106.4 million for the prior year period. Gross margin decreased to 67% from 70% the prior year, primarily driven by changes in product mix and higher inventory write-downs, partially offset by lower royalties and lower warranty costs. Total operating expenses for the third quarter decreased to $132.5 million, compared to $147.9 million for the prior year period, driven by lower personnel expenses and lower outside legal expenses. Operating loss for the third quarter was $32.2 million compared to an operating loss of $41.5 million in the third quarter of last year. Net loss for the period was $27.5 million compared to a net loss of $35.8 million for the third quarter of last year. We ended the quarter with $482 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, of $35 million from the prior quarter. Turning to our outlook for the fourth quarter, we anticipate revenue to be in the range of $154 million to $158 million, representing 5% growth compared to Q3 at the midpoint. This outlook reflects the continuation of the key positive drivers of performance that we've seen throughout this year. We do not anticipate a material change in customer purchasing behavior and do not anticipate the year-end budget acceleration we have previously experienced in the fourth quarter. Our balance sheet remains strong, providing the flexibility to invest in innovation, advance our strategic initiatives, and support long-term growth. We are confident in our ability to execute with discipline and agility as market conditions evolve and we remain focused on creating durable value for our customers and shareholders. With that, I'll turn the call back to Serge.

Thanks, Adam. Before we open the line for questions, I'd like to take a moment to thank the entire 10X team. This year has been incredibly tough for our customers. For that reason, it has also been really challenging for our team. Yet, you have worked relentlessly through the challenges, keeping focus on our customers and on advancing our mission. I deeply appreciate how our field teams work so closely and creatively with researchers, how our R&D teams keep pushing forward with new product development, and how our entire team has stepped up to the challenge with really tight execution. When I reflect back on the history of our company, going back to the earliest garage days, the periods of greatest value creation often coincided with the lowest external valuations. This feels very much like one of those moments. Through your efforts, we have forged increasingly powerful bonds with our customers, advanced our roadmap, and made tons of progress improving our internal capabilities. We are executing from a position of strength with an unmatched innovation engine, expanding adoption, and a strong balance sheet that gives us the flexibility to invest for the long term. I'm proud of what we've achieved and confident that our best work and our greatest impact fly ahead. With that, we will now open it up for questions. Operator?

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you have dialed in and would like to ask a question, simply press a star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and join the queue. If you would like to read while your question, simply press a star one again. With that, your first question comes from the line of Doug Shanko with Wolf Research. Please go ahead.

Madeline Molman Analyst — Wolfe Research

Hi, this is Madeline Molman on for Doug. The guide calls for a 5% sequential pickup, can you walk through how much of that is expected to come from instruments versus consumables, especially given you're not assuming a year-end budget flush? And then what assumptions are built into the Q4 guide regarding the government shutdown? Finally, what does this mean for 2026, given the quarter-over-quarter improvement? It seems like you should be able to grow in 2026, adjusted for the royalties payments.

Is that the right way to think about things great uh thanks for the question uh madeline so i think as it relates to instruments versus consumables um we're not anticipating a big year and budget flush but i would anticipate you know potentially a little bit more of an uptick on the instrument side uh in q4 so if you just sort of think about that mix between consumables uh and instruments it could be a little bit higher on the instrumentation side of q4 than versus what we saw in q3 uh we factored the government shutdown down into our guide, so, you know, to the extent that that does last to the end of this year as it relates to our Q4 guidance, you know, that's incorporated, you know, as a reminder, you know, from an intramural perspective, NIH intramural is a fairly low percent of our total overall business. Serge, do you want to take the 26?

On 2026, so fundamentally it's too early for us to really talk about 2026. Obviously, we're seeing great friends in the business right now, but there's also a lot of just fundamental uncertainty in the macro environment. Visibility among our customers is quite limited, and there is a lot of uncertainty still around the policy environment. So we're not giving a guide. You know, big picture-wise, at this stage, we anticipate the first half of 2026 should look similar to the second half of 2025. And we'll, you know, we'll take it from here.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line. Poneet Soda with Leering Partners. Please go ahead.

Puneet Souda Analyst — Leerink Partners

Yeah, hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. So, first one is really on the spatial side. I just wanted to get a sense on how should we think about that in the fourth quarter and then potentially, especially the consumables into 2026. You came in flat, slightly down in the third quarter, so I just wanted to clarify on the consumable side there. And then, you know, Serge, when we think about the GEMX, the Flex V2 product that you're launching here, I just want to clarify, you have a barcode oligo hybridization step that is built into it that does give significant flexibility, both in terms of the number of samples that can be run and then the ability to run partial plates as well. So when we think about customers doing lesser batching and the price per sample, which seems to be now in the sub-$300 range versus the $1,000 before, how should we think about the medium to near-term impact? I mean, I appreciate longer term this is going to be an elasticity of demand that could play out here. But in the near to medium term, why should this not impact the revenue growth? And please let me know if any of my assumptions are wrong there. Thank you.

Yeah, so maybe on the spatial consumables side, first, one thing that I would just point out about this quarter is that if you may remember, we had a pull forward in Asia of spatial consumables into Q2 from Q3. And so if you kind of normalize for that, we actually had a nice sequential step up in Q3. And as I mentioned, Spatial has been doing quite well, Spatial consumables have been doing well, and we anticipate that to continue all the trends are pointing generally well in that direction. As far as the question on Flex V2, I mean, those are definitely astute observations around how the product works and the fact that it gives a lot of flexibility to our customers. um maybe like a little bit of a step back just in terms of our overall general strategy here is merited we started uh you're talking about this some time ago about the fact that there's a huge elasticity potential in this market in a single cell and we started lowering our prices per sample in a very kind of careful staged manner starting with the gem x introduction about a year and a half ago, and since then, with the introduction of new products like on-chip multiplexing, like the first iteration of GemX Flex about a year ago, kind of opening up new use cases, new configurations to drive more volume at lower prices. And what we have seen is that consistently over that time, the reaction growth and volume growth has been stepping up as we've been expanding and very much in resonance with the strategy that we have put out there. So the numbers line up with the strategy, the feedback of customers also lines up with the strategy in terms of new use cases opening up, new configurations, and people running more single cells than they were doing before. And the launch of Flex, the The next generation of flex now also is part of that overarching strategy where we're delivering new configurations into the marketplace to a large extent where it is, when it is abated to be particularly impactful, is enabling people to learn larger experiments. And it's really at least sort of large experiments that you do get to lower per sample and per sell prices. And, you know, we want to be careful in the sense that the products, this new flex is not, doesn't have exactly the same sort of configurations that the previous versions did. But overall, you know, if you compare kind of an average, it's probably there's a 20 to 30% drop in the average reaction price. And we do anticipate that this will be more than made up in volume, especially over time. And that would be consistent again with the feedback that we've been hearing from customers and with the metrics we've been tracking internally over the course of the past year and now.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Dan Arias with Stipo. Please go ahead.

Dan Arias Analyst — Stifel

Good afternoon, guys. I'll ask one since that's what you asked for. I wanted to ask a follow-up question on spatial consumables, though. So can you, Serge, can you just maybe add some color to the contributions from Xenium and Vizium? And I know you don't like talking about per-system pull-through, but it is a tough modeling exercise for spatial just given the two product lines. So is there anything you can kind of shed light on when it comes to user dynamics per box, if possible? Anything there would be helpful just when it comes to keeping our models straight for these two product lines here?

Yeah, yeah. Thanks for the question. So kind of as I was alluding to kind of in my prepared remarks, spatial in general has been like a very dynamic field. And there's also kind of this broad uncertainty around how the application, the space is going to play out relative to our platforms or relative our products, especially between Bizium and Xenium. And, you know, one of things that I, you know, I'm sure to emphasize earlier is that we're seeing more and more enthusiasm in particular, and kind of very consistent increase in usage of the platform, and not just the broad usage, although we're seeing that in the consumables numbers, consumable numbers, pretty consistent update, but also on a per-instrument basis. Like the, we haven't shared pull-throughs, and it's still quite a dynamic kind of environment for us to be able to do that. But it has been trending consistently in the right direction. And also, like I said, along sort of both the vector of more runs and also price per run. And also back to my earlier point, in general, the trend has been more towards Genium, like relative to Visium and among digital products.

Operator

Thank you. And the next question comes from the line of Kyle Nixon with Canaccord. Please go ahead.

Kyle Nixon Analyst — Canaccord

Thanks for the questions. Congrats on the quarter. I want to just address the acquisition this week from a large company about the instrument-free solution company, similar to yours in scale, a little bit larger situation now. So this acquirer is going to provide access to the single-cell tech to 500,000 less globally. they're going to incorporate 100 million cell data set into their software and pathway analysis, and they're also going to integrate single cell into pharma companion diagnostics. So just would love to hear, Serge, if you have like, you know, an answer to these kinds of aspirations over time. Can you do these things organically? Possibly. Thanks.

Thanks, Kyle. Yeah, I mean, look, first of all, kind of big picture-wise, you know, one way to look at it is that it certainly validates the space. Like we've been saying for a long time that single cell is fundamentally has enormous potential going forward and along multiple access, right? It's the fundamental unit of biology. This is where biology needs to go. That's ultimately where clinical applications and drug development needs to go. So yeah, we were glad to see others agree with that assessment. Overall, the space has always been competitive, certainly over the past several years, but even from the very, very beginning. And also, it has had quite a number of large and significant companies operate in that space. And we have consistently won with our products by virtue of our technology leadership, by virtue of performance of our products, their quality, robustness, ease of use, just a wide breadth of applications. And we certainly expect that to continue. Customers consistently choose us. You know, there's always this sort of pattern of as new technologies come in, people trial them, but the customers come back to us for all the reasons I just mentioned. And we see that That's reflecting in our customer surveys, in double-blind MPS, which are off the charts, especially relative to our competitors. All of these metrics trend in our direction and our leadership, we expect for our leadership to continue. If anything, the gap in performance between our products and others has increased over the past over the past several years, given all the product launches that we have had. So yeah, so we do anticipate that it's going to stay this way, and I fundamentally don't anticipate, don't expect the fundamentals of the dynamic release.

Operator

Thank you. And the next question comes from the line of David Westenberg with Piper Sammler. Please go ahead.

David Westenberg Analyst — Piper Sandler

Hi. Thanks for taking the question. and I'll just ask one short one since you have a lot in line. Can you talk about the strong spatial performance in Europe? Is there any reason to believe that there's sustainability there? Is there anything to call out in terms of one time? Thank you very much. Great job on the quarter.

Thanks, Kyle. Yeah, I mean, so look, we want to be careful not to over-index on any particular quarter in any particular region. These things tend to be lumpy and there tend to be fluctuations quarter to quarter. You know, that's, yeah, for sure. We had like a great quarter in terms of spatial consumables, in terms of xenon consumables in Europe. I think that's part of the broader trend we're seeing across the world. And we do expect that to generally continue.

Operator

Thank you. And the next question comes from the line of Dan Brennan with TDKelman. Please go ahead.

Kailan Analyst — TD Cowen

Hey, good afternoon. This is Kailan for Dan. I just want to ask about China, you know, sort of what you're seeing there. I know you had some pull forward in the second quarter that you just talked about earlier. But I think year over year, you still grew a little bit in China off of, you know, not an easy comp. But I guess what are you seeing over in China?

Yeah, I mean, good question. So just to kind of step back a little bit, you may remember that we made a number of changes to kind of go to market in China a couple of years ago. after a number of challenges that we've faced there. And that has yielded great benefits. We have a great team, great organization, great relationship with the distributors and partners over there, which has increased both visibility and execution in that region. And so you're seeing some of the outcomes of that. We're also seeing quite good, robust demand on the ground for our products there as well. So that has also been quite gratifying to see. Overall, of course, China has very different dynamics from the rest of the world. And so we have to be cautious about long-term visibility there. But overall, right now, we're certainly seeing good business and good progress in the region.

Operator

Thank you. And the next question comes from the line of Tycho Peterson. Hey, guys, this is Lauren on for Tycho.

Lauren Analyst — Jefferies

Congrats on the quarter. Um, on the Xenium, could you maybe elaborate a little bit more on kind of early adoption trends for Xenium protein and kind of how these multi-omic workflows are resonating with customers and kind of maybe which end markets are you seeing the strongest demand? Um, and then in terms of kind of differentiation, you know, there's other competitors kind of talking about spatial offerings and kind of what do you think about that in terms of differentiation for Xenium?

Um, and then lastly, just on single cell consumables that were down, um, do you, what you think is needed kind of going into the end of the year into 2026 to see recovery for a single cell thanks um yeah so let me start there with the with the protein product so uh that is something that obviously has been uh has been a big trend i talked about this early in my prepared remarks kind of the whole notion of multi-omics and being able to measure multiple analytes from the same sample from the same cell from the same section tissue section and i want to kind of emphasize the that this is the first product of its kind that can measure both proteins and RNA expression from the same exact section using the same integrated workload. And that is something that our customers have been asking for and have been very excited to receive. So the initial feedback has been very positive. Like, people really appreciate it, really like this capability early days. So don't, you know, don't want to say any more on that point, but definitely very promising and i think this is just a kind of the first step in a long uh along a very uh promising direction um i also would say that uh there's tremendous differentiation that xenium has relative to uh other products on the market and uh you know we've talked about that before just based on the fundamentals of the technology based on the workflow based on the data that we've been seeing coming back and it's not been reflected very consistently with customer feedback to all kinds of benchmarks that people have run that consistently puts Xenium on top. You see that in the numbers. We see that in also competitive situations out there, like with our team is consistently winning in the marketplace. Xenium really stands out as a platform. And as far as the question on the single-seller consumables, overall, we are really happy with the progress of reaction growth, volume growth. Obviously, there are some pricing headwinds that I talked about earlier in terms of new product introductions that are introducing lower price point configurations. And also, obviously, we can't forget the macro headwinds, especially when you're looking at year-over-year compares. But if you look sequentially, there has been a really nice and robust step up in both in reaction volumes and in overall revenue for single cell consumables. I think that's a very promising sign, and we do expect these trends to continue.

Operator

Thank you. And the next question comes from the line of Lu Li with UBS. Please go ahead.

Lu Li Analyst — UBS

Great. Thank you for taking my questions. I wanted to go back to the spatial. You mentioned that the scientists increasingly prefer Xenium over VZM. I wonder, can you talk a little bit about your kind of like mobile math for VZM going forward? And then second question, you also mentioned that people are starting to be using more like flash with the Xenium together. I wonder, can you quantify a little bit in terms of like what percentage of your customers are using the two products at the same time?

Yeah, I mean, in terms of the second question, it's too early to make quantifications. I surely hear that traveling in the field, especially translational customers that have FFPE samples that they want to be analyzing and they want to have the most comprehensive possible analysis of those samples. And the two products together, the Flex together with Genium, provides kind of the best, most comprehensive analysis. You get the whole transcriptome, single-cell-based analysis using Flex, and then you have this really precise detail spatial analysis from Xenium. And we see that as still very early in that trend, but it's a consistent theme that I've now heard pretty consistent across multiple customers. And we do expect, kind of back to your first question, the sort of trend of people really converging and being enthusiastic about Xenium, again, if anything, this is just kind of the beginning of this trajectory. We see this happening more and more as, again, researchers kind of talk to each other where it becomes more and more clear across different applications, across different publications, just how well Xenium works and how quickly you can get from their samples to insights.

Operator

Thank you. And the next question comes from the line of Michael Riskin with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Michael Riskin Analyst — Bank of America

Thanks for taking the question. You talked earlier about some of the academic and government trends and end-of-year budget flush. I want to dig a little bit more on pharma behavior, what you're seeing there as you're going into the end of the year. You know, there's a lot of concern on some budget constraints and just some cautious spending. Just wondering if you noticed any change on that in the last couple of months and if you're getting just any more fruitful conversations with pharma customers.

Yeah, thanks, Mike. Pharma has been kind of a challenging segment. We're very happy to have the full biopharma team in place, which again, we made those changes last year. It has been very helpful to have focus teams, especially in this kind of environment. The marker has been challenging. There's like just fundamental uncertainty around kind of long-term questions for farmers where to invest because of various policy questions, and especially a lot of uncertainty for them investing in early discovery, early stage research, which is where our products have been traditionally focused on. And so, you know, as this sort of right now where it's a little too hard to tell precisely how the rest of the quarter is going to play out, there's definitely some areas of positive trends that we're seeing, but also plenty of reasons to be cautious as well. So kind of in the longest term, we do see a lot of prominent interest and promising. And then we're also moving downstream drug development process into translational applications, especially given that products that's now with Flex, seeing a lot of potential. But, you know, we'll see how the sort of...

Operator

Thank you. And the next question comes from Justin Bowers with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Justin Bowers Analyst — Deutsche Bank

Hi, good afternoon. And Serge, what's your latest thinking on the elasticity of chromium, especially with the launch of the recent flex assay? Have the curves crossed? And, you know, in other words, you know, absent of near-term macro headwinds, you know, what type of growth are we thinking about for single cell in the interim?

Yeah, good question, right? And kind of like as I talked about earlier, we have been consistently encouraged by volume growth and how consistent it has been with our strategy. You know, we have several elements of what we embarked on with our product launches, starting about a year and a half with the launch of GemX at a lower price point, for example, compared to the previous architecture next year. And that has been kind of proceeding through the conversion throughout our customer base to the point where by the end of this year, we should be largely finished with that conversion. And then, of course, we launched new products last year as well, and also started shipping the new version of Flex. So on-chip multiplexing, which kind of opens up new use cases, new customers, Flex opens up also new use cases, large configurations, more usage, high cell volume kind of use cases. And so we do anticipate, and we have seen that, more and more volume growth. We do also see some conversion of current users, which creates headwinds on price. And, you know, at this stage, it's probably too early to tell where the sort of status state of new products is relative to kind of our previous existing products. But we're in a sort of it's been a pretty steady clip at which new products have been entering their market. And we've been very happy with the progress there and and the volume growth, especially.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Patrick Donnelly with CDPs.

Brendan Analyst — Citigroup

Hi, this is Brendan on for Patrick. Thank you for taking your questions and congrats on the quarter. I know you guys aren't giving 26 guidance until the next call, but I want to touch on the first half of 26. Given kind of line of sight into the order funnel and visibility, is the first half of 26 kind of looking like the first half of 2025, kind of in that mid single-digit decline area and similar revenue levels when excluding royalties. And then just to touch on the government shutdown further to mind breaking out exactly what you guys have factored in for the fourth quarter. Thank you.

So maybe on the government shutdown, I'll, as Adam mentioned, it's factored in into our guide for the quarter. The way to think about it is that at this stage for Q4, really, the only material effect is likely to be on intramural NIH, which is a very small fraction of our business for this quarter. The rest of the business is, you know, sort of is able to proceed independent of the shutdown. where things start to get potentially more challenges to predict is if it sustains sort of the funding trends into 2026. And this is where we are certainly retraining from given guidance in 2026 or how it's going to play out at this stage.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Casey Woodring with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Jaden Analyst — JPMorgan

Hi, this is Jaden on for KC. Thank you for taking my question. Could you just touch on what impact we can see as NextGen's end-of-life is year-end as customers make that transition over and may take more time to validate an assay or incorporate it into an existing new project? And what does the timeline usually look like for customers before they ramp to GemX? And what near-term impact that might have on the P&L given the lower cost and anticipated ramp and volume? Thank you.

Yeah. I mean, I think on the specific question of NextGen to GMAX transition, at this point, there is not much left for the customer base to transition. You know, we've given people end-of-life notices, and so people have been kind of running experiments with that in mind. and we anticipate the bulk of the effects or sort of the effect on a P&L on the top line has already, we've already gone through it, you know, at this point. So what is left is pretty marginal.

Operator

The next question comes from July Nod, Subu Nambi with Guggenheim. Please go ahead.

Thomas Analyst — Guggenheim

This is Thomas on for Subu.

Thanks for taking our question. on chromium instrument discounts you've mentioned they'll be temporary through the macro uncertainty but do you anticipate any resistance from customers and purchasing when you return to normalized higher pricing or if you can confirm if you'll choose to keep chromium asps at these levels longer term thank you well uh yeah that's a good question like we've said before uh we have been intentionally very flexible with customers in terms of giving them creative deals and discounts when it makes sense with various products or different payment structures, depending on their constraints. And there have been a lot of different kinds of constraints that customers have faced over the course of this past year. You know, our view is that the situation has been so uh uh peculiar and so unique in a lot of instances that uh really doesn't necessarily translate uh the the sort of the the patterns and the and the deals that we've given customers really shouldn't um uh set uh much of a precedent uh uh into kind of uh as we transition into more stable more normal times and the last question comes from mason carrico with stephen please go Good afternoon.

David Westenberg Analyst — Piper Sandler

And thanks for taking the question. This is Ben on for Mason. Could you give us some insight into Xenium's 5K panel adoption? How much of a tailwind has this been to Xenium consumable growth this year? And how much of that growth has just come from the higher pricing there? Thank you for taking the question.

Yeah, Ben. Good question. So like I said earlier, genuine consumables have been growing, and growing both in terms of the number of runs, number of runs per instrument, and also price per run. And a large part of that increased price per run is precisely what you're referring to here, which is the adoption of the 5K panel. So it's been going great, very happy with it, and we do expect it to be a good, great driver of this.

Operator

And this does conclude our question and answer session. I would like to thank our speakers for today's presentation, and we thank you all for joining. This now concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

Full-screen source Call document