Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. (UCTT) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the UCT Q3 2024 Earnings and Webcast Conference Call. At this time, all lines are in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. This call is being recorded on Monday, October 28 2024. I would now like to turn the conference over to Rhonda Bennetto, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. With me today are Jim Scholhamer, Chief Executive Officer; and Sheri Savage, Chief Financial Officer. Jim will begin with some prepared remarks about the business and Sheri will follow with the financial review; then we'll open up the call for questions. Today's call contains forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. For more information, please refer to the Risk Factors section in our SEC filings. All forward-looking statements are based on estimates, projections, and assumptions as of today, and we assume no obligation to update them after this call. Discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP basis. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP can be found in today's press release posted on our website. And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to Jim. Jim?

Thank you, Rhonda. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining our call this afternoon. I will start with a high-level summary of our financial and operating results for the third quarter and share our thoughts on the broader industry trends we are seeing. After that, I'll turn the call over to Sheri for a more detailed financial review before opening up the call for questions. During the third quarter, an increase in equipment spending by our customers supporting the expansion of AI infrastructure build-out and demand from the domestic China market resulted in revenue coming in at the high end of our guided range. Using the midpoint of our Q4 guidance and analyst consensus for our peer group, UCT revenue is on track to be up over 20% this year over last year, surpassing that of our largest customers. In addition to the uptick in equipment sales for advanced packaging applications that we saw over the past several quarters, third-quarter demand broadened to include other AI-related processes such as Chemical Mechanical Planarization or CMP, specifically for the large AI chips. Because UCT has such a diverse and flexible menu of solutions, customers are partnering with us to accelerate their leading-edge technology roadmaps. Turning to China, revenue from our Shanghai manufacturing facility supporting local Chinese OEMs remained elevated. Recent conversations with local customers and our expectation that regional fabs will continue to expand and new ones will come online, supported by local government investments, lead us to believe that this higher level of spend will continue into 2025. We will continue to meet regularly with our local Chinese customers and watch for any change in sentiment or spending patterns that could alter our opinion. Last quarter, I mentioned some of the metrics we are tracking that could point towards a broader industry recovery, and they continue to improve. Inventories have mostly realigned, shipments of high-performance computing chips have increased, data center spending is very robust, memory is being actively managed to keep supply and demand balanced, and fabs are reporting improved utilization rates. In fact, the world's largest chipmaker recently announced that they continue to observe extremely healthy AI-related demand through the second half of 2024, leading to increased capacity utilization rates for leading-edge process technologies with signs of acceleration into next year and beyond. UCT builds a diversified line of products for the industry that extends our reach far beyond gas and fluid delivery solutions. If you could walk through a fab, you would see thousands of our parts, components, and modules. UCT indirectly touches nearly every semiconductor chip that goes into every smartphone, smart car, data center, and device that uses artificial intelligence today. We have a roadmap built to last and leverage our competitive advantage by offering high-value differentiated solutions across all end markets. Our state-of-the-art manufacturing technology, especially in Malaysia, where revenue has increased nearly 150% since this time last year, is helping our customers reach greater economies of scale, especially at the leading edge. Semiconductor cycles are two-pronged. They are technology-driven and capacity-driven. Strong investment in the technology phase of the cycle has been healthy this year and is one of the reasons UCT has been able to meaningfully grow revenue. The debut of AI-enabled smartphones and laptops is here, and a broad replacement cycle shouldn't be far behind. We remain very optimistic that we are in the early innings of an industry-wide recovery. As capacity investments begin to increase, we expect momentum to accelerate. UCT has withstood many cycles of varying lengths and has outperformed during every upturn. In summary, our long-term outlook for the semiconductor industry remains very positive. We maintain our view that the global semiconductor market will exceed $1 trillion by 2030, driven by ballooning demands for integrated circuits, AI, digital economies, and electrical vehicles. To achieve this, investment in WFE will need to be in the $150 billion range, and we are ready with the products, services, capacity, and efficiency to meet the major increases in demand we see coming. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Sheri for our financial review. Sheri?

Thanks, Jim, and good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us. In today's discussion, I will be referring to non-GAAP numbers only. As Jim mentioned, total revenue was up quarter-over-quarter due to increased demand from our customers relating to AI infrastructure build-outs and continued strength from our domestic China market. Total revenue for the third quarter came in at $540.4 million compared to $516.1 million in the prior quarter. Revenue from products increased to $479 million from $452.7 million last quarter. Services revenue was $61.4 million compared to $63.4 million in Q2. Total gross margin for the third quarter was 17.8% compared to 17.7% last quarter. Products gross margin was 16.1% compared to 15.6%. And services was 30.5% compared to 32.7% in Q2. Margins can be influenced by fluctuations in volume, mix, and manufacturing region, as well as material and transportation costs. So there will be variances quarter-to-quarter. Operating expense for the quarter was $56.5 million compared with $55.8 million in Q2. As a percentage of revenue, operating expense decreased to 10.5% from 10.8% in Q2. Total operating margin for the quarter increased to 7.3% from 6.9% in the second quarter. Margin from our Product division was 7% compared to 6.2%, and services margin was 10.1% compared to 11.8% in the prior quarter. The overall margin improvements were largely driven by improved product operating efficiency and effective management of operating expenses across both business units on higher revenue. Our tax rate increased from 24.7% last quarter to 27.1% this quarter, representing a year-to-date effective tax rate of 24.3%. Our mix of earnings has been weighted to higher tax jurisdictions like China and the Czech Republic. As a result, we now expect the tax rate for 2024 to stay in the mid-20s. Based on 45.5 million shares outstanding, earnings per share for the quarter were $0.35 on net income of $15.9 million compared to $0.32 on net income of $14.4 million in the prior quarter due to higher revenue. During the quarter, we experienced some foreign exchange headwinds, primarily related to the Malaysian ringgit that negatively impacted EPS by $0.06 per share. Turning to the balance sheet, our cash and cash equivalents were $318.2 million compared to $319.5 million in Q2. Cash flow from operations was $14.9 million compared to $23.2 million last quarter, primarily due to timing of cash collections and vendor payments. For the fourth quarter, we project total revenue between $535 million and $585 million. We expect EPS in the range of $0.34 to $0.54. And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to the operator for questions.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session. Your first question comes from the line of Charles Shi from Needham. Your line is now open.

Hey, good afternoon, Jim and Sheri. The first question is about China. What's the percentage of revenue coming from China in the third quarter? But maybe it's a related question I'll ask all together. When I look at the PowerPoint you posted on the website, that your revenue from LAM is up and the revenue from AMAT is actually probably down a little bit. So, is China the main contributor to the non-LAM, non-AMAT revenue growth in the third quarter? That's the first question. Thank you.

Yes. Hi, Charles. So yes, I think we did about $50 million something, $52 million, $55 million this quarter from China direct, right? So I'm talking about what we sell directly to our Chinese OEMs. And so, as you look at percentages from our different Applied and LAM, I can't read too much into that. It's just simply we're seeing some more strength from Chinese OEMs, but we're seeing also some strength from LAM and ASM and ASML and others. So those percentages are going to move around a little bit, but I think when you look at that way, I think you're seeing the fact that we're continuing to see significant strength from our direct sales to Chinese equipment makers.

Got it, $55 million from China direct. I just want to clarify.

Yes. And I mean just to give you like a reference, Charles, in the past, we did like $10 million a quarter, maybe $20 million if we had a great quarter. So this has been continued strength. And I just actually met with the CEOs in China and they continue to think that that's going to stay strong through the year and through next year as well.

Understood. Access to the Chinese semiconductor capital is quite unique for your company in the industry. I have a question that may relate to technology or product. You mentioned the build-out of AI infrastructure. We all recognize that part of your revenue comes from LAMs and electroplating, which has performed exceptionally well, reportedly more than doubling this year, with continued strength expected next year. However, this quarter, you've mentioned some strength related to CMP. Can you elaborate on that? Typically, we associate your product more with depth and edge; what is your exposure to CMP? Additionally, why is there a ramp in CMP associated with the AI infrastructure build-out? Is this just a general trend with advanced nodes, or is there something specific regarding CMP for the largest AI chip manufacturing? Thank you.

Sure. Yes. As you just mentioned, I'll reiterate the wet bench electrochemistry strength that we've been seeing for the interconnect business has continued to remain really strong out of our Czech Republic factory. But what we started to see this quarter, and one of the reasons for our outperformance, is that we started to see CMP business increase. Now we have a really good position; we have a significantly high footprint in CMP. And CMP is very body on and off. But what we're seeing is chemical mechanical planarization is kind of something that people do to get the yields up in the chips that they're making. This is becoming where we're starting to see more investment in that space. Since we also have a very diversified platform that we cover across many different types of equipment and technology, we have a really solid position there and then we're starting to see companies invest in CMP to kind of take their yield up, especially in the AI area.

Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Edward Yang from Oppenheimer. Your line is now open.

Hi, Jim. Congrats on a great quarter. I wanted to dig a bit deeper into your demand outlook, and you mentioned growing faster than your customers. I wanted to understand, is this a function of customers outsourcing more and relying on partners like UCT, your win rates? Or are you exposed to the right technology platforms? That is, your customers have such broad-based end market exposure? Are you overweight or underweight in any particular areas that would help you meaningfully grow faster?

Yes. Hi, Edward. So yes, we definitely, as you start to see the market turn back and the industry bring up, and we've seen this over the years, we typically outgrow the industry in the up years. So what happens is you start to see our customers begin to outsource a bit more. We have some of that. We also have gains in lithography that we've been exploiting. Additionally, our new platform in Malaysia, where customers want to take advantage of that low-cost region that we've been growing. So we're starting to see our outperformance in these areas from those basic strengths. If you were to look back through our history over the last 10 years, you would see that when the industry starts moving up a bit, we do experience a higher level of outsourcing and we do experience a higher level of market share gain.

I wanted to follow up on Charles' question regarding China. You noted that your quarterly revenue there was $55 million, which represents a significant increase year-over-year; however, it's approximately $4.5 million lower than the previous quarter. Is there any seasonality affecting this, or did you notice any moderation, or is it simply fluctuations in revenue from China?

Yes, Edward, I can't go into details, but we have two main customers there. One is facing some internal quality issues, which are not our fault, while the other is experiencing faster growth. There is some variability, but it's not something to be concerned about regarding the long-term outlook.

Your next question comes from the line of Christian Schwab from Craig-Hallum Capital Group. Your line is now open.

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I mean, last quarter, you spoke about seeing broader market improvement in the second half of '24 versus the first half of '25, which has obviously been correct. We also talked about WFE being really strong on a year-over-year basis in '25, but I didn't really hear an update on that. We understand what your largest customer talked about seeing growth, but I think we talked about percentages on the call last time. Do you have any update for us there?

Yes, we are continuously reviewing our projections. We are looking at growth rates between 10% to 14%, which will depend on how the year concludes in 2024. The baseline may shift slightly, but we remain optimistic that WFE will increase. It’s difficult to precisely determine whether it will rise by 10%, 12%, or 14%. We are confident that we will perform better next year. However, we need to see how 2024 wraps up before we can provide a solid estimate for 2025. We strongly believe that 2025 will see an increase and that our growth will exceed those percentages.

Great. No other questions. Thanks, guys.

Your next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar from TD Cowen. Your line is now open.

Hi, this is Robert Mertens filling in for Krish. Thank you for taking my questions. I want to revisit the domestic China strength you’re experiencing. Have you analyzed whether this strength is more concentrated in foundry, memory, or across the board? Additionally, what kind of visibility do you have with your customers in China? I understand you expect the market to stay strong in the December quarter, but it would be helpful to know your visibility and confidence as we head into the next year.

Yes, hi, Robert. We haven't broken it down by chip type. What we mainly provide to them are deposition and etch modules, particularly in the gas panel area, which makes up about 45% of our business. As I mentioned earlier, I recently visited and had dinner with the CEOs of those companies, and they are set to continue gaining market share. It's evident that they are over-investing at the moment, attempting to acquire as much equipment as possible. Not all of this equipment is being delivered to their customers, but based on my observations and conversations with these customers, I believe that 2025 will maintain the same levels we are experiencing in 2024. Coupled with a broader market recovery at some point and the AI strength seen in various parts of our diversified products, we feel very comfortable and confident about our trajectory. As we indicated in Q4, we expect to see ongoing improvements.

Great. Thank you. That's helpful. And then just one more if I may. In terms of the product margins, they've been doing well in the September quarter. Is that more to a mix, or does just the sales volume have a bigger play into the puts and takes of margins on a quarterly basis?

They both do. It just depends. Sometimes we'll have a mix where there's higher margin shipments happening. Specifically, we ship more out of certain locations for certain product types. But volume definitely plays a huge factor for us in general just because with the volume coming up, it's covering more of our fixed cost; we've added capacity over the last couple of years. So it definitely covers some of those expenses associated with that. So that's probably the more major factor out of it.

Got it. Okay. Well, congrats, and thank you for letting me take the time and ask questions.

Thank you, Robert.

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Jim Scholhamer for closing remarks. Please continue.

Thank you, everyone. Thank you for joining our call today. I think you can pick up that we're really excited about the go-forward, and I hope you can join us next quarter. Looking forward to it. Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.