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GEO · Geo Group Inc

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$30.68 -0.23 (-0.74%) At close · Aug 19
Market Cap
$4.04B
Shares
131.62M

Price & Indicators

Indicators
Price
Panels
Event markers
20d MA 50d MA 200d MA Earnings Filing Insider Congress Investor day
Close$30.68 Open$31.06 Day$30.08–31.17 52W close$13.26–31.75 Avg vol 30d1.7M Short int9.6M · 7.3% float · 6.8d Short vol43% Last earningsAug 6, 2026 DataJan 2020–Aug 2026 Filing10-Q · Aug 6

Up next

Next earnings call
Nov 6, 2026 Est · unconfirmed · in 11 wks
FQ3-26 quarter ends
~Sep 30, 2026 Est
Latest filing: 10-Q
filed Aug 6, 2026

AI Brief

TL;DR.

Bullish
    Bearish

      AI-generated from the earnings call and 8-K · may contain errors · not investment advice

      Ask ALVIS about this →

      Equibles Rating

      blended score · not investment advice
      Overall
      Neutral
      SellHoldBuy
      Technical Buy Momentum Strong Sentiment Neutral Fundamentals Strong Quant / Vol Very High
      Market backdrop VIX 14.9 · calm Equity put/call 0.52
      Technical
      price trend
      Buy
      50 / 200-day cross No cross
      Price vs 200-day avg +49%
      above
      Price vs 50-day avg +2%
      above
      RSI (14) 51
      neutral
      MACD trend Negative
      52-week position 94%
      near high
      Volume (OBV) Confirms
      volume backs price
      Momentum
      relative strength
      Strong
      1-month return −2%
      trailing
      6-month return +111%
      trailing
      YTD return +90%
      this year
      Relative strength +100%
      vs S&P · 6-mo
      Sentiment
      smart money
      Neutral
      Trend (MA cross) No cross
      50d $30 › 200d $21 — 50d above 200d
      Institutional flow Accumulating
      +11% holders QoQ · +70 funds added
      Insider flow Distributing
      Net -$109.6K over 90 days · 100% sells
      Short interest Falling
      7.27% of float · ▼ -7.9% MoM · 6.8 days cover
      Volume signal Reversal watch
      High volume on a down day — possible exhaustion
      Institution breadth Steady
      294 holders — mid 3-yr range
      Squeeze score 64
      elevated · 0–100
      Fundamentals
      Strong
      Revenue growth +4%
      Y/Y
      EPS growth +727%
      Y/Y
      Free cash flow $-124.9M
      Valuation P/E 14.5
      below peers
      Buyback $323.0M
      remaining
      Balance sheet $1.6B
      net debt
      Quant / Vol
      risk profile
      Very High
      Volatility 49%
      annualized · 1-yr
      Max drawdown −42%
      past year
      ATR 4.0%
      of price · 14-day

      Blended from price, momentum, positioning, fundamentals & volatility · daily-close · not investment advice. Market backdrop is context, not part of the score.

      Guidance & track record

      Beat or met 8 of last 8
      Latest guidance · from the 8-K filed Aug 6, 2026
      full year 2026
      Revenues Initiated $2.95B – $3.05B
      prior FY $2.63B midpoint +14.0% Y/Y
      Net Income Attributable to GEO Operations Initiated $168M – $175M
      Net Income Attributable to GEO Operations per Diluted Share Initiated $1.27 – $1.32
      prior FY $1.82 midpoint −28.8% Y/Y
      Adjusted EBITDA Initiated $550M – $560M
      Total unreimbursed Capital Expenditures Initiated $135M – $145M
      third quarter 2026
      Net Income Attributable to GEO Operations Initiated $45M – $48M
      Net Income Attributable to GEO Operations per Diluted Share Initiated $0.35 – $0.37
      prior qtr $0.36 midpoint +0.0% QoQ
      Quarterly revenues Initiated $755M – $805M
      prior qtr $732.07M midpoint +6.5% QoQ
      Adjusted EBITDA Initiated $140M – $145M
      fourth quarter 2026
      Quarterly revenues Initiated $758M – $808M
      prior qtr $732.07M midpoint +7.0% QoQ
      Net Income Attributable to GEO Operations Initiated $37M – $41M
      Net Income Attributable to GEO Operations per Diluted Share Initiated $0.28 – $0.31
      prior qtr $0.36 midpoint −18.1% QoQ
      Adjusted EBITDA Initiated $137M – $142M
      FY 2026
      Net Income Attributable to GEO Per Diluted Share Initiated $1.27 – $1.32
      prior FY $1.82 midpoint −28.8% Y/Y
      Prior guidance period ended · from the 8-K filed Feb 12, 2026
      GAAP Net Income · first quarter 2026 $0.17 – $0.19
      Quarterly revenues · first quarter 2026 $680M – $690M
      Adjusted EBITDA · first quarter 2026 $107M – $112M
      Adjusted EBITDA · first quarter 2026 $107M – $112M
      Guided vs delivered · last 8 settled
      Quarterly revenues fourth quarter 2025
      guided $651M – $676M
      $707.7M Beat +6.7%
      GAAP Net Income full year 2025
      guided $1.81 – $1.85
      $1.82 In line
      Annual revenues full year 2025
      guided $2.6B
      $2.63B Beat +1.2%
      Annual revenues full year 2024
      guided $2.4B
      $2.42B Beat +1.0%

      Guidance from company 8-Ks · delivered figures from as-reported statements · no analyst estimates involved.

      Technicals

      trend & momentum for long-term holders Buy
      1 · 3 · 3
      50 / 200-day cross
      No cross Neutral
      Price vs 200-day avg
      +49% Bullish
      Price vs 50-day avg
      +2% Bullish
      RSI (14)
      51 Neutral
      MACD trend
      Negative Bearish
      52-week position
      94% Bullish
      Volume (OBV)
      Confirms Neutral
      Market signals — smart money & positioning
      Bullish · 2 of 6
      Trend (MA cross) No cross
      50d $30 › 200d $21 — 50d above 200d
      Institutional flow Accumulating
      +11% holders QoQ · +70 funds added
      Insider flow Distributing
      Net -$109.6K over 90 days · 100% sells
      Short interest Falling
      7.27% of float · ▼ -7.9% MoM · 6.8 days cover
      Volume signal Reversal watch
      High volume on a down day — possible exhaustion
      Institution breadth Steady
      294 holders — mid 3-yr range
      Price context
      position in its 52-week range
      Range low $13 Now $31 · 94% Range high $32
      vs 200-day avg +49% vs 50-day avg +2%

      Illustrative technical + ownership context — a signal mix, not investment advice.

      Key metrics

      the company's own KPIs, from written earnings releases and filings
      Metric Latest Period YoY
      GAAP → non-GAAP reconciliation
      GAAP Net Income Attributable to The GEO Group, Inc. Operations 47.5M
      +673K Loss on asset divestitures/impairment, pre-tax
      +0K Loss on extinguishment of debt, pre-tax
      +0K Litigation costs and settlements, pre tax
      +509K Start-up expenses, pre-tax
      +156K Transaction fees, pre-tax
      +392K Employee restructuring expenses, pre-tax
      +0K Close-out expenses, pre-tax
      -435K Tax effect of adjustment to net income attributable to GEO Operations
      = Adjusted Net Income 48.8M

      Figures exactly as the company stated them in writing · click a metric with a to chart its history · period links open the stating document · "filing" marks figures stated in the 10-K/10-Q · YoY needs an exactly comparable prior-year period

      Versus peers

      Security & Protection Services — same industry group
      Open screener →
      Company Mkt cap YTD Rev growth Y/Y P/E Short % shares
      GEO
      Geo Group Inc
      this stock
      		$4.04B +90.3% +3.9% 14.5 7.3%
      ALLE
      Allegion plc
      		 $13.59B +2.2% +7.6% 21.0 5.6%
      MSA
      MSA Safety Inc
      		 $7.30B +18.3% +3.7% 23.5 3.4%
      ADT
      ADT Inc.
      		 $5.27B -8.4% +4.7% — 4.5%
      BCO
      Brinks Co
      		 $4.50B -6.5% -5.7% 25.3 11.3%

      Peers by industry group · P/E from as-reported trailing EPS · short % is of shares outstanding

      At a glance

      key data from every section
      Ownership
      Institutional Holders Reducing
      Holders
      294
      % held
      100.7%
      Net QoQ
      -3.9M sh
      Top holder
      BlackRock, Inc.
      Held Float
      View
      Held by Funds
      Fund positions
      220
      View
      Short & Settlement
      Short Interest Falling
      Shares short
      9.6M
      Days to cover
      6.8d
      Change
      -816.8K sh
      View
      Short Volume
      Short vol %
      43%
      As of
      Aug 19, 2026
      Short Total
      View
      Fails to Deliver
      FTD shares
      148
      Value
      $4.6K
      As of
      Jul 23, 2026
      View
      Off-Exchange
      Off-exchange %
      36.3%
      Week of
      Jul 13, 2026
      Off-exch Lit
      View
      Smart Money
      Insider Trades Net selling
      Net (90d)
      -$109.6K
      Buyers / Sellers
      0 / 1
      Buyers Sellers
      View
      Financials
      Financials
      Revenue (FY)
      $2.6B
      Net income (FY)
      $254.4M
      EPS diluted
      $1.82
      View
      Buybacks
      Authorized
      $500.0M
      Remaining
      $323.0M
      Spent Remaining
      View
      Filings
      SEC Filings
      Latest
      8-K
      Filed
      Aug 6, 2026
      This year
      11
      View
      Proposed Sales
      Value
      $109.6K
      Shares
      3.5K
      Filed
      Aug 13, 2026
      View
      Earnings & Events
      Earnings Calls
      Last call
      Aug 6, 2026
      View

      Performance

      5D 20D 120D MTD YTD
      GEO -2.5% -2.1% +111.2% -0.7% +90.3%
      SPY -0.4% +2.9% +11.6% +3.0% +12.8%
      vs SPY -2.0% -5.0% +99.6% -3.6% +77.5%

      Capital returns

      Latest dividend
      $0.25 / share · ex Jan 22, 2021
      Cut 26.5%
      Paid (TTM)
      $0.00 / share · 0 payouts
      Dividend yield (TTM, derived)
      — · no payout in the trailing year
      Buyback program · as of Jun 30, 2026
      Authorized
      $500.00M
      Spent (derived)
      $177.00M
      Remaining
      $323.00M
      Spent Remaining

      Dividends per share over the trailing 365 days by ex-date · buyback figures as last reported in SEC filings ("spent" derived as authorized − remaining; when several programs run concurrently, authorized is their combined total per the newest filing) · components shown separately — trailing-year buyback spend isn't tracked, so no combined shareholder yield is derived.

      Key facts CIK 923796 CUSIP 36162J106 13F (30d) 275 filings 266 filers Visit website Investor relations

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