GEO · Geo Group Inc
$30.47
-0.49 (-1.58%)
At close · Sep 30
Return incl. dividend (before tax)
Market Cap
$4.11B
Shares
131.62M
Volume · Sep 30
2.43M
Avg daily vol (3M)
2.03M
Price & Indicators
20d MA
50d MA
200d MA
Earnings
Filing
Insider
Congress
Investor day
Close$30.47
Open$30.74
Day$30.28–31.32
52W close$13.26–32.77
Avg vol 30d2.4M
Short int9.6M · 7.3% float · 4.6d
Short vol33%
Last earningsAug 6, 2026
DataJan 2020–Sep 2026
Filing10-Q · Aug 6
Up next
Next earnings call
Nov 6, 2026
Est · unconfirmed
· in 5 wks
filed Aug 6, 2026
call held Aug 6, 2026
Metrics snapshot
Useful current figures from the complete screener profile.
Revenue (TTM)
$2.83B
Trailing 12 months
Net income (TTM)
$291.54M
Trailing 12 months
Revenue growth YoY
+15.1%
Year over year
Operating margin
11.2%
Trailing 12 months
P / E (TTM)
14.6
Trailing earnings · reciprocal yield 6.8%
FCF yield
0.6%
TTM · current market cap
Return on invested capital
—
Trailing 12 months
Net cash
—
Latest balance sheet
Dividend yield
—
Trailing 12 months
Shares change YoY
-6.0%
Year over year · fewer shares
Price change (1Y)
+47.6%
Trailing year
Short interest
7.3%
Latest settlement · 4.6 days to cover
Equibles Rating
blended score · not investment adviceOverall
Neutral
SellHoldBuy
Technical
Buy
Momentum
Very Strong
Sentiment
Neutral
Fundamentals
Strong
Quant / Vol
Very High
Market backdrop
VIX 16.3 · calm
Equity put/call 0.53
Technical
price trend
50 / 200-day cross
No cross
Price vs 200-day avg
+33%
above
Price vs 50-day avg
−2%
below
RSI (14)
46
neutral
MACD trend
Negative
52-week position
88%
near high
Momentum
relative strength
1-month return
0%
trailing
6-month return
+70%
trailing
YTD return
+89%
this year
Relative strength
+58%
vs S&P · 6-mo
Sentiment
smart money
Trend (MA cross)
No cross
50d $31 › 200d $23 — 50d above 200d
Institutional flow
Accumulating
+11% holders QoQ · +69 funds added
Insider flow
Distributing
Net -$1.0M over 90 days · 100% sells
Short interest
Falling
7.28% of float · ▼ -9.8% MoM · 4.6 days cover
Volume signal
Normal
Volume near normal
Institution breadth
Steady
294 holders — mid 3-yr range
Squeeze score
61
elevated · 0–100
Fundamentals
Revenue growth
+4%
Y/Y
EPS growth
+727%
Y/Y
Free cash flow
$-124.9M
Valuation
P/E 14.7
below peers
Buyback
$323.0M
remaining
Balance sheet
$1.6B
net debt
Quant / Vol
risk profile
Volatility
49%
annualized · 1-yr
Max drawdown
−39%
past year
ATR
4.4%
of price · 14-day
Blended from price, momentum, positioning, fundamentals & volatility · daily-close · not investment advice. Market backdrop is context, not part of the score.
Guidance & track record
Latest guidance
· from the 8-K filed Aug 6, 2026
full year 2026
Annual revenues
Initiated
$2.95B – $3.05B
prior FY $2.63B
midpoint +14.0% Y/Y
Net Income Attributable to GEO Operations
Initiated
$168M – $175M
Per diluted share
Initiated
$1.27 – $1.32
prior FY $1.82
midpoint −28.8% Y/Y
Adjusted EBITDA
Initiated
$550M – $560M
Total unreimbursed Capital Expenditures
Initiated
$135M – $145M
third quarter 2026
Net Income Attributable to GEO Operations
Initiated
$45M – $48M
Per diluted share
Initiated
$0.35 – $0.37
prior qtr $0.36
midpoint +0.0% QoQ
Quarterly revenues
Initiated
$755M – $805M
prior qtr $732.07M
midpoint +6.5% QoQ
Adjusted EBITDA
Initiated
$140M – $145M
fourth quarter 2026
Net Income Attributable to GEO Operations
Initiated
$37M – $41M
Quarterly revenues
Initiated
$758M – $808M
prior qtr $732.07M
midpoint +7.0% QoQ
Per diluted share
Initiated
$0.28 – $0.31
prior qtr $0.36
midpoint −18.1% QoQ
Adjusted EBITDA
Initiated
$137M – $142M
Guided vs delivered
· last 8 settled
Net income Attributable to GEO
full year 2024
guided $0.40 – $0.51
$0.22
Miss −51.6%
Annual revenues
full year 2024
guided $2.44B
$2.42B
Miss −0.7%
Revenues
third quarter 2024
guided $606M – $616M
$603.13M
Miss −1.3%
Net income attributable to GEO
third quarter 2024
guided $0.21 – $0.25
$0.19
Miss −17.4%
Guidance from company 8-Ks · delivered figures from as-reported statements · no analyst estimates involved.
Technicals
trend & momentum for long-term holders Buy
50 / 200-day cross
No cross
Neutral
Price vs 200-day avg
+33%
Bullish
Price vs 50-day avg
−2%
Neutral
RSI (14)
46
Neutral
MACD trend
Negative
Bearish
52-week position
88%
Bullish
Market signals — smart money & positioning
Bullish · 2 of 6
Trend (MA cross)
No cross
50d $31 › 200d $23 — 50d above 200d
Institutional flow
Accumulating
+11% holders QoQ · +69 funds added
Insider flow
Distributing
Net -$1.0M over 90 days · 100% sells
Short interest
Falling
7.28% of float · ▼ -9.8% MoM · 4.6 days cover
Volume signal
Normal
Volume near normal
Institution breadth
Steady
294 holders — mid 3-yr range
Price context
position in its 52-week range
Range low $13
Now $30 · 88%
Range high $33
vs 200-day avg +33%
vs 50-day avg -2%
Illustrative technical + ownership context — a signal mix, not investment advice.
Key metrics
Earlier KPI extraction records exist, but do not meet the current evidence-completeness requirements. No current verified series is available. Earlier figures remain withheld until revalidated; this is not evidence that the company reports no KPIs.
Versus peers
Security & Protection Services — same industry group| Company | Mkt cap | YTD | Rev growth Y/Y | P/E | Short % shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
GEO
this stock
Geo Group Inc
|
$4.11B | +89.0% | +3.9% | 14.7 | 7.3% |
|
ALLE
Allegion plc
|
$13.21B | -3.4% | +7.6% | 20.4 | 3.5% |
|
MSA
MSA Safety Inc
|
$7.04B | +11.1% | +3.7% | 22.7 | 2.3% |
|
ADT
ADT Inc.
|
$4.54B | -24.7% | +4.7% | — | 3.3% |
|
BCO
Brinks Co
|
$4.25B | -13.5% | -5.7% | 23.9 | 13.0% |
Peers by industry group · P/E from as-reported trailing EPS · short % is of shares outstanding
At a glance
key data from every sectionOwnership
Short & Settlement
Smart Money
Financials
Filings
Earnings & Events
Performance
| 5D | 20D | 120D | MTD | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEO | -0.5% | -0.2% | +70.4% | -4.2% | +89.0% |
| SPY | -0.7% | +0.1% | +12.2% | -0.6% | +11.8% |
| vs SPY | +0.2% | -0.3% | +58.2% | -3.6% | +77.2% |
Capital returns
Buyback program
· as of Jun 30, 2026
Authorized
$500.00M
Spent (derived)
$177.00M
Remaining
$323.00M
Spent
Remaining
Dividends per share over the trailing 365 days by ex-date · buyback figures as last reported in SEC filings ("spent" derived as authorized − remaining; when several programs run concurrently, authorized is their combined total per the newest filing) · components shown separately — trailing-year buyback spend isn't tracked, so no combined shareholder yield is derived.