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GEO $31.22 +2.80%
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GEO · Geo Group Inc

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$31.22 +0.85 (+2.80%) At close · Aug 14
Market Cap
$4.11B
Shares
131.62M
All earnings calls

Earnings call · FY2026 Q1

Geo Group Inc Q1 FY2026 Earnings Call

Geo Group Inc Q1 FY2026 Earnings Call

Concluded May 6, 2026 Audio replay Verified speakers
May 6, 2026 46:32 51 turns
Period
FY2026 Q1
Runtime
46:32
Sources
4 artifacts

Executive readout · one minute

What matters this quarter

GEO Group reported Q1 2026 revenue up 17% to $705.2 million, Adjusted EBITDA up 32% to $131.4 million, and net income up 96% to $38.3 million, and raised full-year 2026 guidance for revenue to $2.95–$3.10 billion, Adjusted EBITDA to $525–$545 million, and EPS to $1.15–$1.25.

ICE detention contracts and census 99 Updated 2026 guidance and potential upside 26 ISAP 5 electronic monitoring program 15 New contract awards and revenue ramp 13 Government funding and shutdown impact 12 Idle facility reactivation and capacity expansion 10

Management tone

Confident

Net tone +62 · low hedging

Grounding quotes
  • “Our diversified five business units delivered strong financial and operational performance during 2026.”
  • “we have increased our outlook for 2026 to reflect the strength of our first quarter results, and we believe there are still several sources of potential upside that are not currently included in our guidance.”
  • “we have approximately 6,000 idle beds at six company-owned facilities, which are primarily former U.S. Bureau of Prisons facilities and therefore high security, making them ideally suited for the current needs of the federal”
  • “If this trend continues, the technology and case management mix shift would continue to increase the revenues and earnings generated under the ISAP 5 contract even if overall volume remains constant.”

Forward guidance

3 guided metrics

Management's latest ranges and targets are included below.

Research coverage

4 live sources

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Revenue $705.21M +16.6% YoY
Diluted EPS $0.29 +107.1% YoY
Net income $38.33M +96% YoY

Research materials

Open the source you need; every reader stays inside this workspace.

Key takeaways

What improved, and what deserves a closer read.

Constructive signals

  • Q1 2026 revenues increased 17% year-over-year to $705.2 million.
  • Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA increased 32% to $131.4 million.
  • Q1 2026 net income attributable to GEO increased 96% to $38.3 million ($0.29 per diluted share).
  • Raised FY 2026 revenue guidance to $2.95–$3.10 billion, Adjusted EBITDA to $525–$545 million, and EPS to $1.15–$1.25.
  • 2025 contract wins represent up to approximately $520 million in incremental annualized revenues, the most in the company's history, including new ICE detention contracts worth $300 million annually and two Florida state management contracts worth about $100 million annually.
  • ISAP ankle-monitor participants rose to more than 48,000 from 17,000 in early 2025, and a new two-year ICE skip-tracing contract valued at up to $60 million per year began in March 2026.

Risks & pressure points

  • ICE facility census declined to approximately 21,000 from a high of 24,000 earlier in 2026, attributed to the DHS leadership transition and the 82-day partial government shutdown.
  • Timing of payments and collections from ICE has been delayed, requiring careful liquidity and working capital management.
  • Two facilities (Lawton, OK ~2,400 beds and Lea County ~1,200 beds) were discontinued, offsetting some of the 2025 contract wins.
  • Only about half of the $100 million from the two new Florida management contracts is expected in 2026 because they start on July 1, 2026.
  • FY 2026 capital expenditure guidance midpoint was raised by 10% to 11%, with retrofitting of idle facilities cited as a driver.
  • Litigation and state oversight of detention facilities were cited as ongoing concerns, with federal ownership discussed as a potential mitigant rather than a confirmed resolution.

Forward guidance

From the 8-K filed May 6, 2026.

Metric Guided
Revenues
full year 2026
$2.95B – $3.1B
Net Income Attributable to GEO Operations Per Diluted Share
full year 2026
$1.15 – $1.25
Adjusted EBITDA
full year 2026
$525M – $545M

Quarter detail

How the reported period landed and where the business moved.

Revenue · regions

United States$648.14M +17% YoY
Australia$51.55M +11.8% YoY
South Africa$5.52M +16.9% YoY

Capital returned

Buybacks
$50.10M
Shares repurchased
3.56M
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