Rigetti Computing (RGTI $12.98 +10.47%) reported Q3 2026 results on November 10, after the market closed: revenue of $1.41 million, 61.7% below the $3.68 million consensus of 12 analysts and $0.39 million below our forecast of $1.8 million. Our preview, published November 3, called a miss, because both of the Novera quantum computers Rigetti expected to sell in 2026 had already shipped in the first half. The call held, and our number was $0.39 million off against the consensus's $2.27 million.
The quarter had no hardware sales at all. Revenue came from research contracts and cloud access, and it fell 27.5% from $1.95 million a year earlier. The full-year outlook now rests on one machine: Rigetti expects 2026 revenue of "approximately $20 million", assuming the 108-qubit system for C-DAC in India passes customer acceptance in the fourth quarter.
The data behind this piece
Explore the primary data Equibles carries for RGTI:
Our forecast against the results
| $M unless stated | Our forecast | Consensus | Actual | Our error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantum computers and components | 0.80 | n/a | 0.00 | +0.80 |
| Collaborative research and professional services | 0.90 | n/a | 1.27 | -0.37 |
| Access to quantum computing systems | 0.10 | n/a | 0.15 | -0.05 |
| Revenue | 1.80 | 3.68 | 1.41 | +0.39 |
| GAAP gross margin | 25% | n/a | 60.7% | -35.7 points |
| Operating expenses | 31.3 | n/a | 34.0 | -2.7 |
| Operating loss | -30.9 | n/a | -33.2 | +2.3 |
| Loss per share before warrant revaluation and stock-based pay | -$0.05 to -$0.06 | -$0.05 | -$0.06 | in range |
Consensus is the 12-analyst revenue mean and the 8-analyst EPS mean in the October 5 snapshot used in the preview. The revenue lines come from the disaggregation table in the 10-Q.
What the model got right
The miss. The preview's case was a delivery calendar. Rigetti had said three systems would ship in 2026: two 9-qubit Novera machines and the C-DAC system. The two Noveras brought in $3.05 million in Q1 and $4.10 million in Q2, and C-DAC was booked for Q4. That left Q3 with research, cloud access and spare parts, and the $3.68 million consensus needed a delivery we could not find in the filings. There was none. Sales of quantum computers and components were zero in the quarter.
The loss per share before non-cash items. We put it at $0.05 to $0.06 a share before warrant revaluation and stock-based pay. Rigetti's non-GAAP net loss was $20.5 million, or $0.06 a share. The GAAP net loss was only $3.1 million, because the fair value of the warrants fell by $25.3 million, a gain. The diluted loss per share removes that gain, so it was $0.08, on a $28.4 million loss.
The C-DAC timing. We modelled the $8.4 million system in Q4, recognized only after installation and performance acceptance testing. The 10-Q still says the system "is expected to be deployed in the fourth quarter of 2026", and the outlook assumes acceptance and revenue in Q4.
What the model got wrong
The mix. We expected $0.8 million of parts and components. There were none. Research and professional services made up most of the gap, at $1.27 million against our $0.9 million, though that line was still down 33.3% from $1.90 million a year earlier. Cloud access was $0.15 million against our $0.1 million.
The margin. We assumed a 25% gross margin, close to what research-heavy quarters earned in 2025. It was 60.7%: cost of revenue was $0.55 million on $1.41 million of revenue, against $1.54 million on $1.95 million a year earlier. The 10-Q puts it down to low revenue levels and the pricing and terms of individual development contracts, so one quarter says little about the next.
The spending. Operating expenses were $34.0 million against our $31.3 million. Research and development rose 69.7% from a year earlier, to $25.5 million, and the operating loss was $33.2 million.
The C-DAC system and the backlog
The 10-Q adds a number the preview did not have. Rigetti has capitalized about $4.8 million of contract fulfillment costs "related to a future system delivery", against none at the end of 2025. The filing does not name the system; the C-DAC machine is the one it describes as due for deployment in Q4. If those costs belong to it, the $8.4 million sale carries at most $3.6 million of gross profit, a margin of about 43% before any further cost to install and test it.
The backlog measure still does not show the order. Remaining performance obligations were about $2.9 million on September 30, $1.0 million of it due after the next twelve months, little changed from $2.7 million in June and smaller than the C-DAC order alone. Deferred revenue was $3.9 million, $3.2 million of it current, against $1.5 million at the end of 2025. The filing still does not say whether the purchase order is counted in the backlog figure.
Cash and the Commerce deal
Rigetti ended the quarter with $497.1 million of cash, cash equivalents and available-for-sale investments, and no debt. In September it signed the definitive agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce for a CHIPS Act award of up to $100 million for three research programs, and the Department took a minority, non-controlling equity stake in return.
What management said
“Rigetti delivered meaningful progress during the third quarter across system performance, technology development and strategic execution.” Dr. Subodh Kulkarni, CEO, Q3 2026 results release
What changes for Q4
Rigetti now expects 2026 revenue of about $20 million, assuming C-DAC acceptance in Q4. With $10.95 million booked in the first nine months, that implies about $9.05 million in Q4. Take out the $8.4 million system and about $0.65 million is left for everything else, less than half of Q3's $1.41 million. The word "approximately" carries a lot here, but the outlook leaves no room for another Novera sale in Q4.
Our preview had Q4 at $10.2 million and 2026 at $21.5 million, with the same $1.8 million base under the C-DAC system. At Q3's actual base of $1.41 million, our Q4 comes to $9.81 million and 2026 to $20.76 million, a little above the outlook. The consensus of October 5 had Q4 at $10.02 million and 2026 at $23.26 million; the outlook sits at the bottom of that 13-analyst range, which started at $20.02 million.
The quarter now turns on a sign-off in Bengaluru. If acceptance slips into January, Q4 would be close to Q3's $1.4 million and 2026 revenue would come to about $12.4 million.
Sources
- Rigetti Computing Q3 2026 results release, Form 8-K filed November 10, 2026 (SEC accession 0001104659-26-125152); see RGTI documents.
- Rigetti Computing Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, filed November 10, 2026 (SEC accession 0001104659-26-125161): revenue by line, remaining performance obligations, capitalized contract fulfillment costs and the C-DAC disclosure.
- Our Q3 preview: Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview and Forecast.
- Consensus: RGTI analyst estimates, the October 5, 2026 snapshot.
- Quarterly history: RGTI financials and earnings calls.
This article is our analysis of public filings and our own financial model. It is not investment advice, and forecasts can be wrong. Equibles staff may hold positions in the securities discussed.