AST SpaceMobile (ASTS $36.89 +14.10%) reported Q3 2026 results on November 9, after the market closed: revenue of $42.3M, 8.0% below the $46.0M consensus of 8 analysts and $2.3M above our forecast of $40.0M. Our preview, published October 29, called a miss on the grounds that the contracted revenue AST SpaceMobile expected to recognize within twelve months had been shrinking all year. The miss held.
The reasons behind it did not. Our total came out close because two errors offset each other: gateway sales came in well below our number and U.S. government revenue well above it. The 10-Q filed the same evening also shows the backlog due within a year growing again, to about $131M from about $79M in June, which undercuts the argument the preview was built on. The loss per share was $0.44, closer to the -$0.45 consensus than to our -$0.48.
The data behind this piece
Explore the primary data Equibles carries for ASTS:
Our forecast against the results
| $M unless stated | Our forecast | Consensus | Actual | Our error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gateway equipment and software (products) | 28.0 | n/a | 20.6 | +7.4 |
| U.S. government work (services) | 12.0 | n/a | 21.8 | -9.8 |
| Revenue | 40.0 | 46.0 | 42.3 | -2.3 |
| Product gross margin | 8.3% | n/a | -9.1% | +17.4 points |
| Adjusted operating expenses, excluding cost of revenues | 110.0 | n/a | 109.4 | +0.6 |
| Stock-based compensation | 60.0 | n/a | 52.3 | +7.7 |
| Depreciation and amortization | 27.0 | n/a | 25.1 | +1.9 |
| Net loss to Class A shareholders | about -144 | n/a | -132.4 | about -11.6 |
| Loss per Class A share | -$0.48 | -$0.45 | -$0.44 | -$0.04 |
| Weighted Class A shares (M) | 301 | n/a | 300.1 | +0.9 |
Consensus is the 8-analyst revenue mean and the 6-analyst loss-per-share mean of October 29, the figures the preview used. Product and services revenue are as the 10-Q reports them, rounded to one decimal, so they add to $42.4M rather than $42.3M.
What the model got right
The miss. The consensus needed revenue to rise 46% from Q2's $31.5M. It rose 34%. The preview's reasoning was that the contracted part of AST SpaceMobile's revenue was too small to support a step that large, and that the company's revenue is back-loaded: in 2025, Q3 brought in $14.7M and Q4 $54.3M.
The cost base. Adjusted operating expenses excluding cost of revenues, the company's main cost measure, were $109.4M, against our $110.0M and the $105M to $115M guide, up from $95.9M in Q2. The noncontrolling interest absorbed 22.9% of the loss, against our 23.0%, and the weighted Class A share count was 300.1M, against our 301M.
What the model got wrong
The mix of revenue. Gateway equipment and software brought in $20.6M, down from $24.4M in Q2 and $7.4M below our $28.0M. Our number rested on inventory: $28.4M at June 30, which we treated as gateway hardware waiting to ship. It did not ship in the quarter. Inventory rose to $79.0M at September 30, almost three times the June figure.
Government work made up the difference. Services revenue, which the 10-Q attributes to performance obligations under U.S. government agreements, was $21.8M, three times Q2's $7.1M and $9.8M above our $12.0M. The company now counts 16 U.S. government awards, including a Space Force contract for space-based sensing that it puts at about $100M of revenue.
Gateway margins. Product cost of revenues was $22.5M on $20.6M of product revenue, a gross margin of -9.1%, against the 8.3% we carried over from Q2. Government work cost $2.9M to deliver, an 86.8% margin, so it produced nearly all of the quarter's $17.0M of gross profit. Our mix implied about $12.3M.
The twelve-month backlog. This is the miss that matters for Q4. The preview leaned on one disclosure: the share of remaining performance obligations the company expects to recognize within twelve months, which fell from 9.0% at the end of 2025 to 8.4% in March and 6.6% in June. In the Q3 10-Q, remaining performance obligations rose to about $1.3B from about $1.2B, and the share due within twelve months rose to 10.1%. That is about $131M due in the next year, against about $79M in June. Both figures are rounded in the filing, so the dollar amounts are approximate.
The loss per share. We argued that the -$0.45 consensus had not caught up with the higher Q3 cost guidance. Costs did rise as guided, but non-cash charges came in lower than we assumed: stock-based compensation was $52.3M against our $60.0M, and depreciation and amortization $25.1M against our $27.0M, as four satellites entered service only on September 1. Gross profit was about $4.7M above what our mix implied, and a $3.8M tax benefit helped. Interest roughly cancelled out, a net expense of $0.2M rather than the $2M of net income we expected, and other expense was $6.7M. The net loss to Class A shareholders was $132.4M, against our roughly $144M.
Cash, spending and satellites
Cash paid for property and equipment was $295.0M in Q3, below the $350M to $425M the company had guided and down from $597.6M in Q2. A further $75.3M of equipment purchases was still unpaid at September 30. Operating activities used $169.3M. Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash were $3.23B at September 30, up from about $2.7B at June 30 after the $1.15B of convertible notes issued in July.
Twelve BlueBird satellites are in orbit and operating. BlueBirds 14 to 16 are at Cape Canaveral awaiting a SpaceX launch date, 17 to 19 are due to ship by the end of November for a Blue Origin launch in early Q1 2027, and 20 to 25 ship in December and January for launches in Q1 2027. The target of about 45 satellites in orbit now reads "by middle 2027"; on the Q2 call it was early 2027. The company expects intermittent nationwide service in the United States and other key markets before the end of 2026.
What management said
“On the manufacturing front, we are transitioning to full-scale ASIC integration beginning with BlueBird 34, while advancing production through BlueBird 51. We expect to achieve a production rate of six ASIC satellites per month in December of this year.” Abel Avellan, Chairman and CEO, Q3 2026 results release
What changes for Q4
AST SpaceMobile reaffirmed its 2026 revenue guidance of $150M to $200M, "with upside based on recent contract signatures." With $88.6M booked in the first nine months, the low end needs $61.4M in Q4 and the top $111.4M. Our preview's $66.0M for Q4 now puts the year at $154.6M. The $167.2M full-year consensus needs $78.6M in Q4.
We keep $66.0M as our base case, but our call at the bottom of the range is weaker than it was, because both of its supports moved. The backlog due within twelve months grew to about $131M, and $79.0M of inventory is on hand. If much of that inventory is gateway hardware due for delivery before December 31, Q4 revenue could reach the consensus. Product revenue and the inventory balance are the first two numbers to read in the Q4 report.
Sources
- AST SpaceMobile Q3 2026 results release and presentation, Form 8-K filed November 9, 2026 (SEC accession 0001193125-26-453758; see ASTS documents).
- AST SpaceMobile Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, filed November 9, 2026 (document, SEC accession 0001193125-26-453759): revenue by type, cost of revenues, inventory, remaining performance obligations and cash flows.
- AST SpaceMobile Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 (document, SEC accession 0001193125-26-342550): first-half capital spending and June inventory.
- Our Q3 preview: AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview and Forecast.
- Consensus: ASTS analyst estimates, 8-analyst revenue mean and 6-analyst loss-per-share mean as of October 29, 2026.
- Quarterly history: ASTS financials and earnings calls.
This article is our analysis of public filings and our own financial model. It is not investment advice, and forecasts can be wrong. Equibles staff may hold positions in the securities discussed.