Lucid Group (LCID $3.60 +9.42%) reported Q3 2026 results on November 9, after the market closed: revenue of $350.3M, 12.2% below the $399.1M consensus of 8 analysts and $26.3M below our forecast of $376.6M. Our preview, published October 28, called a revenue miss and a wider loss per share than analysts expected. Both calls held. The loss was $2.74 a share, against our -$2.80 and the -$2.21 consensus.
Our revenue number was still too high. Lucid had already reported 3,806 deliveries, so the whole question was how much each vehicle brought in. We assumed a little less than in Q2. It was a lot less. Lucid also announced a $1.75B increase to its delayed-draw term loan with the Public Investment Fund, which it says funds the company into Q4 2027.
The data behind this piece
Explore the primary data Equibles carries for LCID:
Our forecast against the results
| $M unless stated | Our forecast | Consensus | Actual | Our error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deliveries | 3,806 (reported) | n/a | 3,806 | 0 |
| Revenue | 376.6 | 399.1 | 350.3 | +26.3 |
| Revenue per delivery, all-in ($K) | 98.9 | n/a | 92.0 | +6.9 |
| GAAP gross margin | -76% | n/a | -73.7% | -2.3 points |
| Net loss | -876 | n/a | -830.9 | -45.1 |
| Preferred stock charge | -230 | n/a | -249.9 | +19.9 |
| Loss per share | -$2.80 | -$2.21 | -$2.74 | -$0.06 |
Consensus is the 8-analyst mean of October 17 for revenue and the 4-analyst mean for EPS. Our all-in revenue per delivery is our $376.6M divided by 3,806 deliveries, including $15M of regulatory credits; the release does not yet split credits out.
What the model got right
The miss. The preview's argument was arithmetic. With 3,806 deliveries already public, the $399.1M consensus needed each vehicle to bring in about $100.9K before credits, 5% more than Q2's record $96.1K, in a quarter when Lucid was selling 852 more vehicles than it built to clear finished Gravity SUVs out of inventory. That did not happen. Revenue fell 13.6% from Q2.
The loss per share. We put the loss at $2.80 a share, $2.22 of it before a preferred stock charge of about $230M. The charge, the accretion of the redeemable convertible preferred stock held by the Public Investment Fund's affiliate, came in at $249.9M, and the loss was $2.74 on 394.6M weighted shares. The -$2.21 consensus was close to our loss before that charge.
The margin direction. We expected the GAAP gross margin to improve sharply from Q2's -105.3% as inventory write-downs eased. It was -73.7%, against our -76%. Write-downs of inventory and purchase commitments were $93.7M, against $527.6M in the first half.
What the model got wrong
Price per vehicle. At $92.0K of revenue per delivery including credits, Lucid's average was 7% below our $98.9K, 10% below Q2's $102.5K and barely above Q1's $91.3K. If credits were near the $15M we assumed, revenue per vehicle before credits was about $88.1K, against Q2's $96.1K. Clearing older Gravity stock cost more in price than we allowed for.
The Saudi share. Sales to related parties, mainly the government of Saudi Arabia, were $79.4M, 22.7% of revenue, down from $96.2M in Q2. The rest of the business brought in $270.9M. We flagged the Saudi orders as the main upside risk; they did not hold the average up.
Cash and the new loan
Free cash flow was -$1.04B, a 30% improvement from Q2. Lucid ended the quarter with $2.0B of liquidity and puts it at $3.75B pro forma for the larger term loan. Interest expense rose to $69.9M, $45.0M of it to a related party, against $25.6M a year earlier.
What management said
“Our transformation is beginning to show progress. We are acting with urgency, strengthening the fundamentals and driving greater discipline, while continuing to invest in the priorities to deliver profitable long-term growth.” Silvio Napoli, CEO, Q3 2026 results release
What changes for Q4
Lucid still gives no revenue guidance. Our preview assumed 4,300 Q4 deliveries and $423.5M of revenue, against a $487.5M consensus. With $1,038.1M booked in the first nine months, our Q4 would put 2026 at $1,461.6M.
The price per vehicle is now the number to watch. At Q3's $92.0K of revenue per delivery, our 4,300 Q4 deliveries would bring in about $395.8M, $27.7M less than the preview's $423.5M, and 2026 would come to about $1,433.9M. The $487.5M Q4 consensus would need about 5,296 deliveries at that price, close to the 5,345 Lucid delivered in Q4 2025, when production was 8,412 rather than one shift.
Sources
- Lucid Group Q3 2026 results release, Form 8-K filed November 9, 2026 (SEC accession 0001628280-26-072158; see LCID documents).
- Our Q3 preview: Lucid Group (LCID) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview and Forecast.
- Consensus: LCID analyst estimates, 8-analyst revenue mean and 4-analyst EPS mean as of October 17, 2026.
- Quarterly history: LCID financials and earnings calls.
This article is our analysis of public filings and our own financial model. It is not investment advice, and forecasts can be wrong. Equibles staff may hold positions in the securities discussed.