Archer Aviation (ACHR $4.71 -2.08%) reported Q3 2026 results on November 9, after the market closed: revenue of $5.1M, against our forecast of $5.3M and a $3.57M consensus of 7 analysts. Our preview, published November 3, called a beat on the grounds that the consensus sat below the quarter Archer had already reported. It did: Q2 revenue was $5.0M.
That last point matters for how to read the beat. On paper Archer beat by 43%. In practice the consensus was stale. It was $3.57M in the October 14 snapshot the preview used and still $3.57M on November 3, although Archer had reported $5.0M for Q2 in August. Revenue was flat on Q2. The numbers that mattered more were the loss and the cash, and both landed close to our model.
The data behind this piece
Explore the primary data Equibles carries for ACHR:
Our forecast against the results
| $M unless stated | Our forecast | Consensus | Actual | Our error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.3 | 3.57 | 5.1 | +0.2 |
| Adjusted EBITDA | -185 | n/a | -178.5 | -6.5 |
| Operating cash flow | -160 | n/a | -164.6 | +4.6 |
| Capital spending | -37 | n/a | -31.7 | -5.3 |
| Cash and short-term investments, September 30 | 1,363.6 | n/a | 1,353.6 | +10.0 |
| Q4 revenue | 5.5 | 4.64 | guide 5 to 6 | 0 at the midpoint |
Consensus is the 7-analyst mean in the October 14 snapshot, the figure the preview used, with a range of $2.0M to $6.0M. Archer gives no revenue guidance for the current quarter, only for the next one.
What the model got right
Revenue above the consensus. Archer's revenue comes from Hawthorne Airport in Los Angeles: hangar and office leases since late 2025, and fueling and ground handling since it bought the airport's fixed base operator on April 1. Q2 was the first full quarter of the fueling business, so we treated it as the floor rather than a one-off. Revenue held at $5.1M. Cost of revenue was $5.0M, so the airport still adds almost nothing to profit.
The loss. Adjusted EBITDA was -$178.5M, inside the -$170M to -$200M guide and $6.5M better than our -$185M, which sat at the guide's midpoint. It widened by $1.4M from Q2.
The cash. We expected about $197M to leave the balance sheet in Q3, from operating cash use and capital spending. Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments fell by $207.0M, to $1,353.6M, within $10M of our forecast. The difference is mostly a $10.0M investment in a private company that we did not model.
What the model got wrong
Revenue growth. Archer had said it expected both hangar and fueling revenue to rise as it brought more space into service. We built in $0.3M of growth, to $5.3M. Revenue rose $0.1M. The Q4 guide of $5M to $6M does not suggest a step up either.
The net loss. GAAP operating expenses rose to $294.3M from $284.2M, with research and development up $12.3M as Archer expanded flight testing and worked on its hybrid aircraft. The net loss was $274.6M, or $0.35 a share on 793.4M weighted shares. Stock-based compensation, which adjusted EBITDA leaves out, was $86.5M in the quarter and $242.5M in the first nine months.
The Boeing deal and Los Angeles
Archer says the purchase of Boeing's Wisk, Insitu and SkyGrid businesses is "nearing close". It still needs some regulatory approvals. Insitu alone, Archer repeats, "will add over $200M in annual revenue", which is why our 2027 view rests on the deal, not on Hawthorne. At closing Boeing becomes Archer's largest shareholder, through shares equal to 19.75% of the Class A stock outstanding just before the deal, plus two warrants.
The other news was regulatory. Archer received a Market Survey Special Airworthiness Certificate from the FAA for its Midnight aircraft, which it says unlocks operations in Los Angeles in the coming weeks as it prepares to carry passengers in the Department of Transportation's eVTOL Integration Pilot Program and at the LA28 Games.
What management said
“I started Archer to unlock the skies, and we are now doing that across both commercial and defense. With our first aircraft in Los Angeles and Boeing set to become our largest shareholder following our transaction close, I believe we are building an end-to-end aerospace and defense platform that very few companies could assemble, and one that will matter for decades.” Adam Goldstein, founder and CEO, Q3 2026 results release
What changes for Q4
Archer guided Q4 revenue to $5M to $6M and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $185M to $205M. Our preview had $5.5M of Q4 revenue without Insitu, the midpoint of the new range, against a $4.64M consensus. The loss guide is wider than Q3's: its $195M midpoint is $16.5M more than Q3's actual loss.
A $5M to $6M range leaves Insitu out, which fits a close near the end of the year. Each week Insitu is consolidated before December 31 adds roughly $4M of revenue, at Archer's "over $200M" a year, so the timing of the close is now the main swing in Q4 revenue. Our 2026 forecast of $17.4M becomes $17.2M with Q3's actual and an unchanged Q4.
Sources
- Archer Aviation Q3 2026 results release and shareholder letter, Form 8-K filed November 9, 2026 (SEC accession 0001824502-26-000087; see ACHR documents).
- Our Q3 preview: Archer Aviation (ACHR) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview and Forecast.
- Consensus: ACHR analyst estimates, 7-analyst mean as of October 14 and November 3, 2026.
- Quarterly history: ACHR financials and earnings calls.
This article is our analysis of public filings and our own financial model. It is not investment advice, and forecasts can be wrong. Equibles staff may hold positions in the securities discussed.