Archer Aviation (ACHR) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview and Forecast

Archer Aviation (ACHR $4.17 -0.71%) reports Q3 2026 results on Monday, November 9, after the market closes, with a webcast at 2:00 p.m. Pacific. The stock closed at $4.17 on November 2, down 12% from $4.73 at the end of June and 39% below the $6.79 it reached the day after Archer agreed to buy three businesses from Boeing (BA $175.40 +2.24%).

Archer still has no aircraft revenue. What it does have is an airport. Since it bought Hawthorne Airport in Los Angeles in December 2025 and the fueling business there on April 1, it has booked revenue from hangar leases, aviation fuel and ground handling: $1.6 million in Q1 and $5.0 million in Q2. The Q3 consensus of $3.57 million is lower than the quarter Archer has already reported, which leaves room for a beat. The larger questions for the call are the $170 million to $200 million adjusted EBITDA loss guide, the cash left after it, and when the Boeing deal closes, because that deal adds more than $200 million a year of drone revenue and moves almost every 2027 number.

Archer Q3 2026 earnings: quick answers

• When does Archer report? Monday, November 9, 2026, after the market closes, with the webcast at 2:00 p.m. Pacific. The investor relations page lists the event.
• What do analysts expect? Revenue of $3.57 million, the average of 7 analysts, in a range of $2.0 million to $6.0 million (analyst estimates).
• What do we expect? Revenue of $5.3 million, a beat, and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $185 million.
• How much could the stock move? About 9% either way by November 13, the first options expiry after the report (options chain).
• How heavily is Archer shorted? 114.8 million shares on October 15, 14.9% of shares outstanding (short interest); the most-shorted stocks list shows how that compares.
• What did management say last time? On the Q2 call it kept the $170 million to $200 million quarterly loss guide and targeted a Boeing close by the end of the year.

Why Q3 revenue will beat

Archer's revenue has three parts, all at Hawthorne Airport, as the Q2 10-Q breaks them out:

• Fixed base operator (FBO) revenue, $3.0 million in Q2: aviation fuel, ground handling and related services. Archer bought 75% of Hawthorne FBO LLC on April 1, so Q2 was a full quarter.
• Lease revenue, $1.0 million in Q2 and $1.0 million in Q1: hangar and office space leased to tenants since Q4 2025.
• Other revenue, $1.0 million in Q2 and $0.6 million in Q1.

The Q2 jump from $1.6 million to $5.0 million was the fueling business arriving. It does not reverse in Q3. Archer said it expects revenue from "both our hangar and FBO operations to increase as we bring additional spaces into service and expand FBO service offerings". We model $3.2 million of FBO revenue, $1.1 million of leases and $1.0 million of other revenue, for $5.3 million. A consensus of $3.57 million would need revenue to fall by almost 30% from Q2, which only fits a model built before the FBO deal closed.

The revenue is small next to the spending, and it has a cost: cost of revenue was $4.3 million in Q2 against $5.0 million of revenue, mostly the ground lease to the City of Hawthorne, fuel and amortization of the operating rights. Nobody should buy Archer for its airport. But a beat on a line the Street has not caught up with is still a beat, and it tells you the consensus has not been updated since the spring.

Our forecast for Q3 and Q4

Consensus is the latest verified snapshot on Archer's estimates page, captured on October 14. Our Q4 assumes the Boeing deal closes at the end of the year, so Insitu adds almost nothing to 2026. Each week it is consolidated before December 31 adds roughly $4 million, at Archer's "over $200M" a year.

The Boeing deal is the real 2027 forecast

On August 9, Archer agreed to buy Wisk Aero (autonomous air taxis), SkyGrid (airspace software) and Insitu (military and commercial drones) from Boeing. Archer pays in stock:

• Shares equal to 19.75% of its Class A shares outstanding just before closing, adjusted for the targets' cash and debt. On the 770.0 million shares outstanding at August 5, that is about 152 million shares, leaving Boeing with about 16.5% of the enlarged company.
• A warrant for $100 million of stock at $13.00 a share, exercisable from 12 to 36 months after closing.
• A second warrant for $100 million of stock at $17.88, exercisable from 12 to 48 months after closing.

Each warrant's share count is $100 million divided by Archer's five-day average price before closing. At $4.17, that is about 24 million shares each, at strikes three to four times today's price. Boeing cannot sell the closing shares for 12 months. The Hart-Scott-Rodino waiting period expired in September, other approvals remain, and management targets a close by the end of 2026.

Insitu changes what kind of company Archer is. Archer said Insitu "alone will add over $200M in annual revenue", based on Insitu's current financials and estimates. Against about $22 million a year from Hawthorne, that makes 2027 revenue roughly ten times 2026. The consensus range of $35 million to $325.5 million shows that some analysts have added Insitu and others have not. We would read the $138 million average as a blend, not a forecast, until the deal closes and analysts reset.

Spending, cash and the guide

Archer guides on adjusted EBITDA, which excludes stock-based compensation, the largest non-cash cost. Stock-based compensation was $156.0 million in the first half of 2026, against $81.9 million a year earlier.

The guide is unchanged at $170 million to $200 million, and acting CFO Priya Gupta said the Q3 loss would "stay within the same range" as Archer matures the Midnight flight test program, operates under the White House eVTOL Integration Pilot Program (eIPP) and develops Halo, its autonomous dual-use platform. We put Q3 at the midpoint. Research and development rose from $122.4 million a year ago to $186.0 million in Q2, and the eIPP flights add operating cost before they add revenue.

Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments were $1,560.6 million on June 30, down $215.3 million in the quarter: $156.4 million used in operations, $37.1 million of capital spending and the $25.0 million paid for the FBO. We expect about $160 million of operating cash use and $37 million of capital spending in Q3, leaving about $1.36 billion.

At that pace, Archer has about seven quarters of cash before counting any raise, Insitu's cash flow or the Wisk spending it will take on. Two other share counts moved this quarter. The public warrants, exercisable at $11.50, expired on September 16 with the stock at about $5.50, so they brought in no cash and leave no warrant liability. And Archer issued 8.3 million shares to vendors in August "in exchange for services rendered and/or goods purchased", a way of paying suppliers that preserves cash and adds shares.

What management said

On the guide:

“For Q3, we estimate our adjusted EBITDA loss to stay within the same range of $170 to $200 million as we continue to mature the Midnight Flight Test program, including our operations under the EIPP, continue development of Halo, and advance our AI solutions.” Priya Gupta, acting CFO, Q2 2026 earnings call

On the Boeing deal and its timing:

“Our focus will be on closing the transaction with Boeing as soon as possible with a target of end of year and then integrating the business efficiently and effectively.” Priya Gupta, acting CFO, Q2 2026 earnings call

On why defense matters:

“Defense does give us a pathway to deploy products faster, and that does come with revenue and learnings.” Adam Goldstein, CEO, Q2 2026 earnings call

Positioning

• Short interest: 114.8 million shares on October 15, up from 94.4 million on September 15 and 104.0 million on September 30. That is 14.9% of the 770 million shares outstanding and 4.3 days of average volume. FINRA publishes the October 30 figure on November 10; our model on the short interest page estimates it at 103 million to 124 million shares.
• Price: $4.17 on November 2, against $6.79 on August 11, the first full session after the deal was announced.
• Options: the November 13 contracts, the first expiry after the report, price a move of about 9% either way, from the time value of the $4.00 and $4.50 straddles. Open interest is heaviest in the $4.50 and $5.00 calls, at 4,185 and 5,020 contracts on October 29.
• Insiders: no open-market purchases since July. Four officers sold on August 17, all at $6.4128, which looks like shares withheld or sold for taxes on vesting awards. Eric Lentell sold another 100,000 shares on August 20 at $6.31 and Benjamin Lyon sold 45,359 on September 21 at $5.43.
• Litigation: on September 29, a federal court narrowed the trade-secret claims Joby Aviation brought against Archer and dismissed Archer's counterclaims against Joby without leave to amend.

Our assumptions

Risks to our call

• Other revenue is lumpy. The $1.0 million of other revenue in Q2 is not described in detail. If it was one-off, Q3 lands nearer $4.5 million, still above consensus.
• Fuel volumes and prices move FBO revenue. A slower quarter at Hawthorne would trim the beat but not erase it.
• The guide is wide. A loss at the $200 million end would take Q3 cash below our forecast by about $15 million.
• Deal timing. A December close puts a few weeks of Insitu into Q4 and lifts revenue well above both our number and the consensus; a slip into 2027 pushes the 2027 step-up back.
• Dilution. Beyond Boeing's shares and warrants, Archer pays some vendors in stock and has not ruled out raising equity.

What to watch on the call

• Q3 revenue by source, and whether management gives a revenue outlook for Hawthorne.
• The Q4 adjusted EBITDA guide, and whether it includes any Wisk or Insitu costs.
• The Boeing closing timeline and the regulatory approvals still outstanding.
• Any Insitu figures beyond "over $200M": margins, backlog, the government customer mix.
• Midnight flight testing and eIPP operations: cities, flight counts and dates.
• FAA type certification progress for Midnight.
• The ITA Airways partnership announced on October 29 for air taxi services in Italy, and what it commits either side to.
• Cash at September 30, and whether vendor share issuances continue.

Sources

• Archer Q2 2026 10-Q, filed 10 August 2026: document.
• Archer Q2 2026 results and shareholder letter, 8-K filed 10 August 2026: document.
• Archer Q2 2026 earnings call transcript, 10 August 2026: transcript.
• Equity Purchase Agreement with Boeing, 8-K filed 10 August 2026: document.
• Vendor share issuances, 8-K filed 18 August 2026: document.
• Public warrant expiration, 8-K filed 4 September 2026: document.
• Hart-Scott-Rodino expiration, 8-K filed 24 September 2026: document.
• Ruling in Joby Aero v. Archer Aviation, 8-K filed 2 October 2026: document.
• ITA Airways partnership, Archer press release, 29 October 2026: release.
• Analyst consensus from Archer's estimates page, snapshot of 14 October 2026; short interest from FINRA; options from the 2 November 2026 session.

This article is our analysis of public filings and our own financial model. It is not investment advice, and forecasts can be wrong. Equibles staff may hold positions in the securities discussed.