D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview and Forecast

D-Wave Quantum (QBTS $10.09 -5.26%) reports Q3 2026 results on Tuesday, November 10, before the market opens, with the call at 8:00 a.m. ET. The stock goes in at $10.09, down 61% this year and down 58% from $23.99 at the end of June. It fell 31% during the third quarter and another 39% since September 30.

D-Wave told investors in August what Q3 would look like: revenue "up modestly" from Q2's $3.08 million, then a much larger Q4 that makes up most of the year. The Q3 consensus of $4.34 million implies 41% growth in one quarter, which is not modest. We forecast $3.4 million, a miss against consensus and in line with the company's own guide.

The bigger gap is Q4. Two annealing systems ship this quarter, but only one of them is a sale. The other, now being installed in Como, Italy, is a €10 million capacity agreement that D-Wave recognizes over five years. Once we add up everything the filings identify, the $32.2 million Q4 consensus still needs about $9.6 million that we cannot find.

Why Q3 will miss consensus

CFO John Markovich gave the shape of the second half on the Q2 call on August 6. Both annealing systems due this year were "likely to ship during the fourth quarter", so Q3 had little system revenue to add:

“Given this timing, we are expecting the third quarter revenue is likely to be up modestly from the second quarter revenue, with fourth quarter revenue up significantly over the third quarter revenue and comprising the majority of the year's total revenue.”

John Markovich, chief financial officer, D-Wave Quantum, Q2 2026 earnings call, 6 August 2026

Q2 revenue of $3.08 million was made of $1.9 million of QCaaS (D-Wave's Leap cloud service), about $0.9 million of professional services and about $0.3 million of "systems and other", mostly site preparation for the Florida Atlantic University system. We build Q3 from the same three lines.

The Q1 2025 spike is the sale of the Jülich system in Germany: $13.7 million of the quarter's $15.0 million came from it. System revenue aside, D-Wave's revenue has stayed between about $1.8 million and $3.1 million a quarter for two years.

QCaaS: $2.0 million. QCaaS revenue was $1.7 million in Q1 and $1.9 million in Q2. The $10 million two-year Fortune 100 agreement announced in February started contributing in Q1; on the call an analyst put it at about $1.25 million a quarter if recognized evenly, and the CFO confirmed only that recognition "commenced" in the first quarter. We let the line grow 5%.

Professional services: $1.0 million. $1.0 million in Q1 and $0.9 million in Q2.

Systems and other: $0.4 million. D-Wave recognizes system revenue "over time during the installation or upgrade period", by costs incurred. With the Florida system shipping in Q4, Q3 should carry only more site preparation, as Q2 did.

That gives $3.4 million, up 10.5% from Q2 and down 9.1% from Q3 2025. The year-on-year fall is not weakness: Q3 2025 included $1.8 million of revenue from upgrading the Jülich system to Advantage2. On our numbers QCaaS alone rises from $1.4 million to $2.0 million. The consensus range runs from $3.23 million to $7.0 million, and our number sits near the bottom of it.

Q1 and Q2 2026 components are the company's rounded figures; they add to $5.9 million against $5.93 million reported. Q4 QCaaS includes the Italian capacity agreement from mid-November.

Our forecast for Q3 and Q4 2026

Consensus is the mean of 16 analysts for quarterly revenue and EPS and 17 for the full year, from the latest snapshot on D-Wave's estimates page, captured on October 13; the EPS consensus does not state its basis. Our EPS is GAAP and assumes no grant offset. Q3 2025 EPS included $121.9 million of non-cash warrant charges.

The second Q4 system is not a sale

CEO Alan Baratz said on the Q2 call that D-Wave expected two system deliveries this year:

“As previously stated, we expect to deliver a system to Florida Atlantic University in 2026, and we continue to expect to book two to three system deals annually going forward, including two system deliveries in 2026.”

Alan Baratz, chief executive, D-Wave Quantum, Q2 2026 earnings call, 6 August 2026

Only one of those is named as a purchase: Florida Atlantic University's $20 million Advantage2, which Markovich placed at "the lower end" of D-Wave's $20 million to $40 million system pricing. The other arrived in Lombardy on October 15. D-Wave's release says the system was "funded by Swiss Quantum Technology SA" and that "SQT acquired 50% of the system's capacity for five years and holds an option to purchase the full system." That is the €10 million agreement D-Wave booked in Q4 2025, listed in its May presentation as the "€10M Agreement for System in Italy", and Markovich explained how it is counted when it was signed:

“In terms of revenue recognition, the EUR 10 million will be recognized ratably over 5 years, commencing when the system becomes operational, which we expect to be sometime next year.”

John Markovich, chief financial officer, D-Wave Quantum, Q3 2025 earnings call, 6 November 2025

Spread over 20 quarters, €10 million is €0.5 million a quarter. We include about $0.3 million for Q4, assuming the system runs from mid-November.

The backlog points the same way. Remaining performance obligations were $40.7 million at June 30. By our arithmetic, the unrecognized part of the Florida sale (about $19.6 million), the Italian agreement (about $11 million to $12 million at recent exchange rates) and what is left of the two-year Fortune 100 agreement after two quarters (roughly $7.5 million if it is recognized evenly) account for about $38 million to $39 million of it. D-Wave also says 28% of the backlog, about $11.4 million, falls more than two years out, which a five-year capacity agreement would explain. That leaves no room for a second $20 million sale under contract at June 30. D-Wave does not itemize the backlog, so this is our inference.

What the Q4 consensus needs. On the same call, an analyst asked whether two to three systems a year meant "roughly $40 million to $60 million in revenue". A $32.2 million Q4 looks like more than one system's worth.

The bar for the Florida system is its whole unrecognized value. The CFO's guidance makes that the best case, not the base case:

“Typically, the timing is a function of site selection, and then it takes time to build a system, install it, and then to calibrate it. And as I've outlined previously, you should think of the rev rec to be, on average, over a two-quarter period of time.”

John Markovich, chief financial officer, D-Wave Quantum, Q2 2026 earnings call, 6 August 2026

He also said the Q4 shipments would leave "some carryover of revenue related to the installation and calibration of these systems into 2027". The Jülich sale in 2025 was recognized mostly in one quarter, but that system had been running on site since 2021 and was bought in place. Florida is a new installation in Boca Raton. We assume 60% of its remaining $19.2 million lands in Q4, $11.5 million, with the rest in Q1 2027.

Margins and the CHIPS award

GAAP gross margin was 63.6% in Q1 and 55.4% in Q2, down from 63.8% a year earlier because of higher personnel costs in delivery. With the same mix in Q3, we forecast 56%. A Q4 with a large system sale should lift the margin, but D-Wave has not said what a new-build system costs, so we do not forecast it.

Operating expenses are where the quarter can surprise. GAAP operating expenses were $55.0 million in Q2, up 93% from a year earlier, and the adjusted EBITDA loss was $37.1 million. On September 4 D-Wave signed an agreement with the Department of Commerce under the CHIPS and Science Act for up to $100 million to fund annealing and gate-model chip development. The first tranche, $53.6 million, was to be made available "shortly following the Award Date"; the remaining $46.4 million comes in four milestone payments over up to five years.

D-Wave's 10-Q describes how such money is booked: government grants "have historically offset a portion of research and development costs". So the award should lower R&D expense as eligible costs are incurred, not add to revenue. The EPS consensus of -$0.094 implies a Q3 loss of about $35 million, against $48.0 million in Q2. Before any grant offset, we forecast a GAAP loss of about $48 million, or -$0.13 a share. Every $10 million of R&D the award covers in Q3 is worth about $0.03 a share. A beat on EPS paired with a miss on revenue is the most likely combination on November 10.

Balance sheet and dilution

• Cash. $546.2 million of cash and marketable securities at June 30 ($296.6 million of cash, $249.6 million of short-term investments), down from $819.3 million a year earlier, mostly because of the roughly $250 million cash paid for Quantum Circuits in January.
• Burn. The adjusted EBITDA loss was $69.9 million in the first half. At Q2's pace, about $37 million a quarter, the June cash covers more than three years before any CHIPS money.
• The government stake. As part of the award, D-Wave issued 7,095,721 shares to the Department of Commerce on September 8 at $14.093, worth $100.0 million at issue and $71.6 million at Monday's close. Commerce can sell only in proportion to the award money D-Wave has drawn, and votes the shares only on a few matters such as a merger.
• Share count. 369.3 million shares on August 5 plus the Commerce shares make about 376.4 million, for a market value of about $3.8 billion at $10.09. That is about 77 times the $42.5 million full-year revenue consensus after netting cash, and about 136 times our $24.2 million.
• Debt and acquired assets. Long-term debt was $34.9 million. Goodwill and intangibles, mostly from the Quantum Circuits deal, were $554.4 million, almost half of total assets of $1.16 billion.
• Equity programs. Our scan of the last 13 months of filings captured no at-the-market program. When Markovich retired, Baratz credited him with "raising over $900 million in capital" over five years.

Leadership change

Markovich, who guided the year on August 6, told the company on August 19 that he would retire, effective September 2. Greg Golkov, senior vice president of finance since May 2023, is acting CFO. The 8-K says the departure "was not the result of any disagreement". The November 10 call is the first with a new finance chief, which makes any change in how D-Wave frames the Q4 systems worth listening for.

Positioning

Short interest. 79.1 million shares were sold short at the October 15 settlement, about 21% of shares outstanding, with 5.0 days to cover at average volume of 15.8 million shares. The position has risen from 50.3 million in mid-May. FINRA publishes the October 30 figure on November 10, the day of the report. Our model estimate for that settlement is 71.9 million to 85.7 million shares; that is an estimate, not a FINRA figure. For comparison, see the most-shorted US stocks and D-Wave's short interest history.

Options. At Monday's close, the at-the-money $10 straddle expiring November 13, the first expiry after the report, cost about $1.65, or 16% of the share price. The November 6 straddle, which ends before the report, cost about $0.89, or 9%. The November 13 contract also covers eight trading sessions, so the difference is a rough guide to the expected earnings move, not a measure of it. The full chain is on the options page.

Insiders. On June 8, with the stock near $26, Baratz exercised options and sold 687,627 shares at $26.13, about $18.0 million, a sale the filing does not mark as made under a 10b5-1 plan. Markovich sold 297,092 shares for about $7.6 million between June 8 and June 15, then announced his retirement in August. The October 15 transactions at $12.03 were shares withheld for taxes on vesting awards, not sales. The only open-market purchase by an insider since January 2025 was 82 shares by a director in November 2025. The filings are on the insider trading page.

Reaction last time. The stock fell 9.3% on August 6, the day of the Q2 report and the "up modestly" guide, from $21.39 to $19.41.

Our assumptions

Risks to our call

• The Italian purchase option. If SQT buys the full system, a sale priced within D-Wave's $20 million to $40 million range could be recognized quickly, because the system is already installed. That alone would close the gap to the Q4 consensus.
• Faster recognition in Florida. If the whole system is recognized in Q4, our forecast rises to $22.9 million for Q4 and $32.2 million for the year.
• A new system deal. D-Wave signed a memorandum in 2025 to sell a system to Yonsei University and Incheon in South Korea, and management expects two to three system deals a year. A deal signed and installed within Q4 would change the year.
• Stale consensus. The latest estimate snapshot is from October 13. Analysts may have cut Q3 since then, which would narrow the miss.
• Grant accounting. If any part of the CHIPS award is booked as revenue rather than against R&D, Q3 revenue would beat by a wide margin.
• Florida slipping into 2027. If installation starts late in December, Q4 could fall below $10 million.

What to watch on the call

• Q3 bookings, and whether a second system sale for 2026 is named.
• How much of the Florida system was recognized in Q3, and the installation date.
• When the Italian system became operational, and whether SQT has signalled interest in its purchase option.
• How much of the CHIPS award was drawn and how it is booked.
• QCaaS growth beyond the Fortune 100 agreement, and the share from production applications (37.3% in the first half).
• Cash at September 30, and any update on a permanent CFO.
• FINRA's October 30 short interest, published the same day.

Sources

• D-Wave Quantum Q2 2026 10-Q, accession 0001907982-26-000129: document.
• D-Wave Quantum Q2 2026 earnings release, 8-K filed 6 August 2026, accession 0001907982-26-000127: document.
• D-Wave Quantum Q2 2026 earnings call transcript, 6 August 2026: transcript.
• D-Wave Quantum Q3 2025 earnings call transcript, 6 November 2025: transcript.
• CHIPS Act award, 8-K filed 8 September 2026, accession 0001907982-26-000141: document; share issuance, 8-K/A filed 9 September 2026, accession 0001907982-26-000144: document.
• CFO retirement, 8-K filed 25 August 2026, accession 0001907982-26-000138: document.
• Italian system delivery, D-Wave release of 15 October 2026: document; Q1 2026 presentation, 8-K filed 12 May 2026: document.
• Quarterly figures from D-Wave's 10-Q and 10-K filings on its financials page; analyst consensus captured on 13 October 2026; short interest from FINRA; options from OPRA quotes at the 2 November close.

This article is our analysis of public filings and our own financial model. It is not investment advice, and forecasts can be wrong. Equibles staff may hold positions in the securities discussed.