Rigetti Computing (RGTI $10.67 -5.16%) reports Q3 2026 results on Tuesday, November 10, after the market closes, with a conference call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern. The stock closed at $10.67 on November 2, its lowest close in a year, 45% below the $19.32 it ended June at and 73% below its 52-week high of $39.12.
The first half of 2026 looked like a turning point: revenue of $4.4 million in Q1 and $5.1 million in Q2, against under $2 million a quarter through 2025. Almost all of that growth came from two 9-qubit Novera quantum computers sold to customers. Rigetti had said three systems would ship in 2026: those two Noveras and a 108-qubit machine for C-DAC in India. The two Noveras are done. The C-DAC system, an $8.4 million order, is booked for the fourth quarter. That leaves Q3 with research contracts, cloud access and spare hardware, and a consensus of $3.68 million that we think is too high.
The data behind this piece
Explore the primary data Equibles carries for RGTI:
Rigetti Q3 2026 earnings: quick answers
- When does Rigetti report? Tuesday, November 10, 2026, after the market closes, with the call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern. The investor relations page lists the event.
- What do analysts expect? Revenue of $3.68 million, the average of 12 analysts, and a loss of $0.05 a share (analyst estimates).
- What do we expect? Revenue of $1.8 million, a miss, and a loss of about $0.05 to $0.06 a share before warrant revaluation and stock-based pay.
- How much could the stock move? About 12.5% either way by November 13, as the options chain prices it.
- How heavily is Rigetti shorted? 71.0 million shares on October 15, about 21% of shares outstanding (short interest); the most-shorted stocks list shows how that compares.
- What did management say last time? On the Q2 call it kept the C-DAC system in the fourth quarter and said quarterly results will follow "the timing of large system contracts".
Why Q3 revenue will miss
Rigetti reports revenue in three lines, and the 10-Q breaks each one out:
| Revenue line | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | What drives it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quantum computers and components | $3.05M | $4.10M | On-premises Novera systems and parts, recognized on delivery |
| Collaborative research and professional services | $1.30M | $0.95M | Multi-year government and corporate research contracts |
| Access to quantum computing systems | $0.06M | $0.09M | Cloud access, including through Amazon Braket and Azure |
| Total | $4.40M | $5.14M |
The hardware line carries the quarter. In Q2, one customer accounted for 64% of revenue, $3.3 million, the size of one Novera system. Over the first half, a different customer accounted for 25%, $2.4 million. That fits management's account: two 9-qubit Noveras delivered this year, both to commercial organizations, with the remaining hardware revenue, about $0.8 million in Q2, coming from components and parts.
Rigetti has won more Novera orders since then: the University of Saskatchewan, the research arm of a large Japanese conglomerate, and a system for the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center's new testbed with HPE, funded by a $5 million National Science Foundation grant. None of these has been announced as delivered, and on the Pittsburgh system the CEO spoke of "putting the system together between now and 2027". Without a delivery in Q3, the hardware line drops back to parts.
The research line is shrinking too. Government entities were 18% of revenue in Q2, against 92% a year earlier, and research revenue fell from $1.71 million in Q2 2025 to $0.95 million. We model $0.9 million of research, $0.8 million of hardware and $0.1 million of cloud access, for $1.8 million. That is close to what Rigetti earned in every quarter of 2025, before the Novera sales started.
The consensus range runs from $1.59 million to $6.38 million, so some analysts already expect a quiet quarter. The $3.68 million average still assumes either a Novera delivery or a research contract we cannot find in the filings.
Our forecast for Q3 and Q4
| Our forecast | Consensus | Company guidance | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 revenue | $1.8M | $3.68M (12 analysts, range $1.59M to $6.38M) | None |
| Q3 EPS, before warrant revaluation and stock-based pay | -$0.05 to -$0.06 | -$0.05 (8 analysts) | None |
| Q4 revenue | $10.2M | $10.02M (12 analysts, range $7.7M to $14.8M) | C-DAC system in Q4 |
| FY 2026 revenue | $21.5M | $23.26M (13 analysts, range $20.02M to $30.70M) | None |
| FY 2027 revenue | Not modeled | $43.92M (12 analysts, range $31.0M to $55.1M) | None |
Consensus is the latest verified snapshot on Rigetti's estimates page, captured on October 5. Our Q3 has an upside case: one new Novera delivered in the quarter adds about $2.8 million, the average of the two systems sold this year, and takes revenue to about $4.6 million, a beat. The downside case is $1.3 million, if parts sales stop as well.
Our Q4 is the C-DAC system, $8.4 million, plus the same $1.8 million base. The CFO said the order will be recognized "following installation and performance acceptance testing", so the revenue lands only when the customer signs off in Bengaluru. A slip into January would leave Q4 near $1.8 million and full-year revenue near $13 million.
The C-DAC order and the backlog
The 10-Q says the aggregate transaction price allocated to remaining performance obligations was about $2.7 million on June 30, with $1.1 million of it due after the next twelve months. That is smaller than the $8.4 million C-DAC order on its own, and smaller than the $4.0 million of deferred revenue on the balance sheet, which the CFO said mainly reflects C-DAC prepayments. The filing does not reconcile the three figures. A likely reading is that the C-DAC purchase order is not yet counted as a fully enforceable contract in the backlog measure, but the 10-Q does not say so, and it is worth asking on the call.
What the figures do show is how little revenue is contracted beyond C-DAC. Deferred revenue rose from $1.5 million to $4.0 million in the first half, a rise John McPeak of Rosenblatt Securities described on the Q2 call as bigger than in any quarter of Rigetti's history, and the CFO tied it mainly to one order. Everything else in 2027 has to come from new Novera sales, new research contracts or larger systems.
The Commerce Department deal
On September 4, Rigetti signed an agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce for an award of up to $100 million under the CHIPS Act, for three research projects: miniaturized readout electronics, a new cryostat that expands cooling capacity "by orders of magnitude", and fabrication for high-connectivity chips. $43.9 million is available at signing; two further tranches of $29.9 million and $26.2 million depend on milestones the Department judges "in its sole discretion".
In return, Rigetti issued the Department 7,739,938 shares on September 8, $100 million of stock at an implied $12.92 a share. At $10.67, those shares are worth about $82.6 million. The Department can sell only as many shares as the award it has actually paid out, it votes only on a narrow list of matters, and if it ends the agreement, Rigetti can buy back the shares tied to undisbursed money for $1.00.
The award is research funding, not revenue. How Rigetti books it, as a reduction of research spending, as other income or as a liability until milestones are met, will change how Q3's expenses read. The Department can also claw back payments if Rigetti misses required project activities or breaches the security and domestic production rules.
Margins, spending and cash
Gross margin was 43% in Q2 and 31% in Q1, lifted by the Novera sales, which the 10-Q says "tend to have a higher gross margin profile" than research work. Without a system sale, margin falls back toward the 21% of Q3 2025. We use 25%.
| Quarter | Revenue | Gross margin | Operating expenses | Operating loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.80M | 31% | $20.4M | -$19.9M |
| Q3 2025 | $1.95M | 21% | $21.0M | -$20.5M |
| Q1 2026 | $4.40M | 31% | $27.3M | -$26.0M |
| Q2 2026 | $5.14M | 43% | $30.3M | -$28.1M |
| Q3 2026 forecast | $1.80M | 25% | $31.3M | -$30.9M |
Operating expenses rose 48% in a year, led by research and development: salaries, stock-based compensation, which doubled to $7.0 million in Q2, and depreciation on new fabrication and refrigeration equipment. We model $21.5 million of research and $9.8 million of selling and administrative costs. Adding back about $7.3 million of stock-based pay and $4.9 million of interest income gives a loss of about $18.7 million before warrant revaluation, or about $0.05 to $0.06 a share.
GAAP results will look different. Rigetti carries its public and private warrants, exercisable at $11.50, as a liability of $88.7 million at June 30, marked to the stock price every quarter. The stock fell from $19.32 to $15.74 during Q3, so the liability most likely shrank, and the change runs through the income statement as a non-cash gain. Q1 2026 showed how large that effect can be: a $33.1 million GAAP profit on an operating loss of $26.0 million.
Cash, cash equivalents and investments were $541.3 million on June 30, with no debt. Operating cash use was $16.2 million in Q1 and $15.8 million in Q2, and capital spending rose to $12.0 million in Q2 as Rigetti bought refrigeration and fab equipment; the 10-Q lists $35.0 million of open purchase commitments. We expect about $17 million of operating cash use and $12 million of capital spending in Q3, leaving about $512 million, or $556 million if the first $43.9 million of the Commerce award arrived before September 30.
What management said
On the deliveries planned for 2026:
“Earlier this year, we outlined three systems targeted for delivery in 2026. Two 9-qubit Novera systems and a 108-qubit system for CDAC in India. We remain on track and are seeing additional demand for Novera QPUs from national labs and universities.” Subodh Kulkarni, CEO, Q2 2026 earnings call
On when the C-DAC order turns into revenue:
“In Q2, we continued to progress on the 8.4 million CDAC order for an on-premises 108 qubit system in India, which we still expect to recognize in the fourth quarter of this year following installation and performance acceptance testing.” Jeff Bertelsen, CFO, Q2 2026 earnings call
On how to read the quarters:
“Quarterly results will continue to reflect the early-stage nature of the quantum computing market and the timing of large system contracts.” Jeff Bertelsen, CFO, Q2 2026 earnings call
On the technology, management said the 108-qubit system runs at a median two-qubit gate fidelity of about 99.1% and targeted about 99.5% "later this year", with an updated technology roadmap promised for the same period. Coherence time, now 25 to 30 microseconds, is what limits fidelity, by the CEO's account.
Positioning
- Short interest: 71.0 million shares on October 15, up from 58.9 million on August 31 and 65.7 million on September 30, about 21% of roughly 341 million shares (Q2's 333 million average plus the Commerce issuance), and 4.6 days of average volume. FINRA publishes the October 30 figure on November 10, the day of the report; our model on the short interest page estimates it at 64.6 million to 77.8 million shares.
- Options: the November 13 contracts price a move of about 12.5% either way, from the time value of the $10.50 and $11.00 straddles. The largest open interest near the money sits in the $12.50 calls and puts, at 2,585 and 2,200 contracts on October 29.
- Insiders: no open-market purchases in 2026. CEO Subodh Kulkarni exercised options and sold 120,000 shares at $15.68 on September 9, and CFO Jeff Bertelsen sold 25,000 at $15.00 on September 3, both under 10b5-1 trading plans set in advance. In August, Rigetti named David Rivas to a new chief operating officer role running systems delivery and Andrew Bestwick as chief technology officer, with a 750,000-share award (insider trading).
- Peers: D-Wave Quantum (QBTS $10.09 -5.26%) closed at $10.09 on November 2, also a 52-week low, and IonQ (IONQ $28.17 -6.23%) at $28.17. Our D-Wave preview covers the other superconducting name reporting this month.
Our assumptions
| Assumption | Value | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Novera systems delivered in Q3 | None | Both 2026 Noveras shipped in H1; no delivery of the later orders announced |
| Hardware and parts revenue, Q3 | $0.8M | About $0.8M of non-system hardware in Q2 |
| Research and services revenue, Q3 | $0.9M | $0.95M in Q2, falling as government contracts wind down |
| Cloud access revenue, Q3 | $0.1M | $0.09M in Q2 |
| Gross margin, Q3 | 25% | 21% in Q3 2025, the last quarter without a system sale |
| Operating expenses, Q3 | $31.3M | $30.3M in Q2, rising with headcount and depreciation |
| C-DAC revenue | $8.4M in Q4 | CFO's timing, after acceptance testing |
| Commerce award | Not revenue | Research funding with an equity issuance |
Risks to our call
- A Novera delivery in Q3. One shipment to Saskatchewan or Japan would add about $2.8 million and turn our miss into a beat. Rigetti does not always announce deliveries when they happen.
- A research contract we cannot see. New government work under the U.K. or U.S. programs could lift the services line.
- C-DAC timing. Acceptance testing in India could slip into 2027, taking most of Q4 with it.
- Award accounting. If the Commerce award reduces reported research spending, the Q3 loss could come in well below ours.
- Dilution. Our scan of the past 13 months of filings found no open at-the-market program, but Rigetti sold $346.7 million of stock through one in the first half of 2025, the Department now holds 7.74 million shares, and spending will rise with the award projects.
What to watch on the call
- Q3 revenue by line, and whether any Novera system shipped in the quarter.
- The C-DAC installation date and acceptance test schedule.
- How the Commerce award is booked, and whether the first $43.9 million arrived in Q3.
- Remaining performance obligations at September 30, and whether the C-DAC order now counts in them.
- Two-qubit gate fidelity on the 108-qubit system against the 99.5% target, and the updated roadmap.
- Capital spending for 2026, and the U.K. investment of up to $100 million.
- The warrant liability at September 30, and the gap between GAAP and adjusted results.
Sources
- Rigetti Q2 2026 10-Q, filed 6 August 2026, accession 0001104659-26-091993: document.
- Rigetti Q2 2026 results, 8-K filed 6 August 2026, accession 0001104659-26-091979: document.
- Rigetti Q2 2026 earnings call transcript, 6 August 2026: transcript.
- Rigetti Q1 2026 10-Q, filed 11 May 2026, accession 0001104659-26-058641: document.
- Commerce Department award and securities issuance, 8-K filed 8 September 2026, accession 0001104659-26-105662: document.
- Officer appointments, 8-K filed 20 August 2026, accession 0001104659-26-098877: document.
- Analyst consensus from Rigetti's estimates page, snapshot of 5 October 2026; short interest from FINRA; options from the 2 November 2026 session; insider trades from Form 4 filings.
This article is our analysis of public filings and our own financial model. It is not investment advice, and forecasts can be wrong. Equibles staff may hold positions in the securities discussed.