Rocket Lab (RKLB $58.86 +10.91%) reported Q3 2026 results on November 9, after the market closed: revenue of $267.8M, 4.1% above the $257.2M consensus of 16 analysts and $7.5M above our forecast of $260.3M. Our preview, published October 27, called a small beat in the top half of the $250M to $265M guide. Revenue cleared the top of the guide by $2.8M.
The quarter beat on more than revenue. The GAAP gross margin was 33.6%, above the 29% to 31% guide that both we and the market had built on, and operating cash flow turned positive at $7.2M after -$84.1M in Q2. Backlog rose 52% in three months, to $3.57B. The loss per share of $0.12 was wider than our -$0.073 and the -$0.066 consensus, but almost all of the gap sits in two items outside the operating business: transaction costs and a loss on retiring debt.
The data behind this piece
Explore the primary data Equibles carries for RKLB:
Our forecast against the results
| $M unless stated | Our forecast | Consensus | Actual | Our error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launch Services | 59.8 | n/a | 53.1 | +6.7 |
| Space Systems | 200.5 | n/a | 214.8 | -14.3 |
| Revenue | 260.3 | 257.2 | 267.8 | -7.5 |
| GAAP gross margin | 30.5% | n/a | 33.6% | -3.1 points |
| Gross profit | 79.4 | n/a | 90.1 | -10.7 |
| Operating expenses before transaction costs | 148.0 | n/a | 147.9 | +0.1 |
| Adjusted EBITDA | about -19 | n/a | -18.0 | about -1 |
| Net loss | -47.6 | n/a | -79.7 | +32.1 |
| EPS | -$0.073 | -$0.066 | -$0.12 | +$0.049 |
| Weighted shares (M) | 651 | n/a | 652.3 | -1.3 |
Consensus is the 16-analyst mean of October 20, the figure the preview used; it was unchanged at $257.2M in the November 5 snapshot. Our operating expense line is the one implied by our net loss forecast: $79.4M of gross profit less $148.0M of costs plus $21M of net interest income.
What the model got right
Revenue above the consensus. We built the quarter from Rocket Lab's two businesses rather than from the guide. The argument was that six Electron orbital launches, all booked at full value on launch day, would lift launch revenue well above Q2's $44.6M, and that Space Systems would keep growing on its first full quarter of the Mynaric and Motiv acquisitions. Both segments grew: launch revenue rose to $53.1M and Space Systems to $214.8M, and total revenue rose $33.7M from Q2, 72.7% from a year earlier.
The cost base. Before transaction costs, operating expenses were $147.9M, against the $148.0M our net loss forecast assumed and inside the $143M to $149M guide. Adjusted EBITDA was -$18.0M, against our "about -19" and the -$17M to -$23M guide.
The share count. We said the guide's 641M weighted shares were set before Rocket Lab sold 29.3M new shares for the Iridium deal and that the count would come in near 651M. It was 652.3M.
What the model got wrong
The mix between the segments. Launch Services brought in $53.1M, $6.7M below our $59.8M. Revenue booked on launch day was $47.2M, against the $52.8M our six launches at $8.8M implied, and over-time revenue on HASTE missions was $5.9M against our $7.0M. Space Systems more than made up for it, at $214.8M against our $200.5M.
The gross margin step-down was smaller than guided. We took the 29% to 31% guide at face value and put the margin at 30.5%, reasoning that launch-heavy revenue would offset a lower-margin mix in Space Systems. The margin was 33.6%, down from 36.1% in Q2 but well above the guide. The segment detail shows why: Space Systems ran at a 33.2% gross margin, far above the roughly 26.5% our forecast implied, while launch ran at 35.3% rather than the 44% we assumed. That was worth $10.7M of gross profit we did not forecast.
The loss per share. We called a slightly wider loss than consensus, and it was much wider, but not for our reason. Two lines we did not model explain more than all of the gap:
- $21.3M of transaction costs inside selling, general and administrative expenses.
- A $27.3M loss on extinguishment of debt.
Without those two items the net loss would have been $31.1M, or about -$0.05 a share, narrower than both our forecast and the consensus. Net interest income of $28.3M was also $7.3M above our $21M, because the cash pile grew more than we assumed.
Cash flow. The preview quoted management expecting negative free cash flow to stay at "elevated levels" in Q3 with Neutron spending. GAAP operating cash flow was +$7.2M instead. Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $4.70B at September 30, against $2.30B at June 30 and the "roughly $4B" we expected after the Iridium raise.
Backlog: $1.2B added in one quarter
Backlog was $3.57B at September 30, up from $2,355.9M at June 30. Rocket Lab says about $1B of new launch contracts were signed in Q3 across Electron, HASTE and Neutron, plus $470M for Space Systems, and its launch backlog now counts 117 launches.
Neutron accounts for a growing share. Rocket Lab signed more than $515M of Neutron contracts with constellation operators in Q3, giving the rocket 16 missions before its first flight, and lifted the base price to $70M for several of them. First launch is still targeted for no earlier than 2027.
The 10-Q says about 33% of the $3,573.0M backlog is expected to turn into revenue within 12 months, down from 45.5% at June 30. That is still about $1.18B, or roughly $295M a quarter before any new orders, against about $268M a quarter on the June figures. The lower share fits a backlog now weighted toward Neutron missions that cannot fly before 2027.
What management said
“Q3 2026 was a defining quarter for Rocket Lab. We delivered a record $268 million in revenue ($34 million higher than Q2 2026) alongside a record backlog which has grown to $3.57 billion.” Sir Peter Beck, CEO, Q3 2026 results release
What changes for Q4
Rocket Lab guided Q4 revenue to $270M to $290M. The $280M midpoint is 5.9% above our preview's $264.5M and 5.5% above the $265.4M consensus, so our Q4 number now sits below the bottom of the guide. With $702.2M already booked in the first nine months, the midpoint puts 2026 revenue at $982.2M, $23.0M above our full-year forecast of $959.2M.
The rest of the guide:
- GAAP gross margin of 34% to 36%, and 39% to 41% before stock pay and amortization.
- GAAP operating expenses of $162M to $168M, and $136M to $142M on a non-GAAP basis.
- Net interest income of $45M, on the larger cash balance.
- An adjusted EBITDA loss of $14M to $20M.
- 681M basic weighted shares, including about 41M convertible preferred shares.
Our preview's Q4 number is now too low. The guide looks supported: Q3 landed $10.3M above its own guide's midpoint, and the backlog alone points to about $295M a quarter over the next year. Launch is the swing line, because Electron revenue is booked on launch day and depends on how many missions fly before December 31.
Sources
- Rocket Lab Q3 2026 results release, Form 8-K filed November 9, 2026 (document, SEC accession 0001819994-26-000073).
- Rocket Lab Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, filed November 9, 2026 (SEC accession 0001819994-26-000074): segment revenue, gross profit and backlog.
- Our Q3 preview: Rocket Lab (RKLB) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview and Forecast.
- Consensus: RKLB analyst estimates, 16-analyst mean as of October 20, 2026.
- Quarterly history: RKLB financials and earnings calls.
This article is our analysis of public filings and our own financial model. It is not investment advice, and forecasts can be wrong. Equibles staff may hold positions in the securities discussed.