Rocket Lab (RKLB $54.73 -7.39%) reports Q3 2026 results on Monday, November 9, after the market closes. The stock goes into the print at $53.82, down 64% from its $150.23 high in May. Since the last report Rocket Lab has sold $1.94B of new shares to pay for its pending Iridium acquisition and pushed Neutron's first launch into 2027. The stock fell 6.6% the day after that update.
The quarter itself looks better than the stock. Rocket Lab guided Q3 revenue to $250M to $265M, and the analyst consensus sits at $257.2M. We rebuilt the quarter from its two businesses. Launch has the clearer setup: Electron flew six times in Q3, all orbital missions whose revenue is booked on the day of launch, against four such launches in Q2. Space Systems gets its first full quarter of two acquisitions. Our answer is a small revenue beat in the top half of the guide, with a slightly wider loss per share than consensus because the gross margin guide steps down and the share count stepped up.
The data behind this piece
Explore the primary data Equibles carries for RKLB:
Why Q3 should land in the top half of the guide
Rocket Lab reports two segments. Launch Services is Electron and its suborbital variant HASTE. Space Systems is everything else: whole satellites, spacecraft components such as solar arrays, reaction wheels and radios, and the businesses it has bought. Space Systems was 81% of Q2 revenue, but launch moves more from quarter to quarter, and the way launch revenue is booked explains most of the swings.
- Electron orbital launches are booked on the day of launch, so the quarter's revenue follows the launch count.
- HASTE suborbital launches, mostly for US defense customers, are booked over time as the work is done. By the time a HASTE rocket flies, much of its revenue has already been recognized.
That is why launch revenue fell to $44.6M in Q2 from $63.7M in Q1 despite six launches in each quarter: two of Q2's six were HASTE flights. Management called the quarter "somewhat atypical" on the Q2 call.
Q3 swings the other way. After a launch attempt was halted at the last second on June 30, Electron didn't fly again until early August, then flew six orbital missions in under two months: two radar satellites for iQPS, three for Synspective and one Earth-observation satellite for a confidential customer. Rocket Lab's own releases number them as its 13th to 18th launches of 2026. None was a HASTE flight, so all six land in Q3 revenue at full value.
Our launch line is six launches at $8.8M each plus $7.0M of over-time revenue on HASTE missions still to fly, $59.8M in total. Rocket Lab reported revenue per launch of $9.1M in Q2 and $9.2M for the first half; we shade it lower because five of the six Q3 missions were for repeat constellation customers buying in bulk.
Our forecast for Q3 and Q4 2026
| $M unless stated | Q2 2026 actual | Q3 2026 our forecast | Q3 consensus | Q3 guidance | Q4 2026 our forecast | Q4 consensus | FY 2026 our forecast | FY consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 234.1 | 260.3 | 257.2 | 250 to 265 | 264.5 | 265.4 | 959.2 | 959.2 |
| Launch Services | 44.6 | 59.8 | n/a | n/a | 52.0 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Space Systems | 189.5 | 200.5 | n/a | n/a | 212.5 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| GAAP gross margin | 36.1% | 30.5% | n/a | 29% to 31% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Adjusted EBITDA | -8.8 | about -19 | n/a | -17 to -23 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| EPS | -$0.08 | -$0.073 | -$0.066 | n/a | n/a | -$0.051 | n/a | -$0.275 |
Consensus is the mean of 16 analysts for Q3 revenue (range $252.0M to $265.6M), 15 for Q4, 18 for the full year and 11 for quarterly EPS, as of October 20.
Q4 starts slower for launch. Electron's only October launch so far was on October 23, the 19th of the year, and we assume five in the quarter, booking $52.0M. Space Systems keeps converting backlog, and we get $264.5M, in line with consensus. Management said in August it was on track to beat last year's launch count.
Space Systems: backlog, acquisitions and the margin mix
Space Systems nearly doubled in a year, to $189.5M in Q2 from $97.9M, and the 10-Q credits "satellite manufacturing and acquisitions". Three deals feed it:
- GEOST, an electro-optical sensor maker, bought in August 2025.
- Mynaric, a German maker of laser terminals that link satellites to each other, closed on April 14, 2026.
- Motiv, a maker of space robotics, closed on May 26, 2026.
Q3 is the first full quarter for the last two, which we put at about $6M of extra revenue. The bigger driver is satellite manufacturing, where revenue follows the cost incurred on long contracts, including its satellites for the US Space Development Agency. Over-time revenue in Space Systems rose to $132.9M in Q2 from $104.5M in Q1. We add $9M for that ramp and take $4M off components, which had a strong Q2.
The backlog supports more than that. At June 30 it stood at $2,355.9M, $1,415.8M of it in Space Systems and $940.2M in launch, and management expects about 45.5% to turn into revenue within 12 months. That is about $268M a quarter before any new orders or quick-turn component sales, more than our Q3 and Q4 forecasts. The Q2 release also listed a $397M Space Force contract for satellites that will fly on Neutron and more than $160M of contracts for three geostationary satellites, and the company says it signed more than $1B of contracts in Q2 and afterwards, including options. Options are left out of backlog until exercised.
Margins: the step down is in the guide
GAAP gross margin climbed from 28.7% to 38.2% over the four quarters to Q1 2026, then slipped to 36.1% in Q2. The Q3 guide of 29% to 31% would undo most of that climb. CFO Adam Spice tied it to mix: satellite platforms, which carry lower margins than components, are a bigger share of Space Systems, and Mynaric's margins need time to benefit from integration. Q2 also had a one-time tariff refund, largely offset by an inventory reserve against Neutron's second flight vehicle.
Launch helps. Launch Services ran a gross margin of 42.8% in Q2 and 44.3% in Q1, against 34.6% and 35.3% in Space Systems, so six full-value launches lift the blend. At our 30.5% blended margin and a launch margin near 44%, Space Systems would be running at about 26.5%.
Below gross profit the arithmetic is mechanical. The guide calls for GAAP operating expenses of $143M to $149M, rising with Neutron work, and net interest income of $21M on the larger cash pile:
| Q3 GAAP gross margin | Gross profit ($M) | Net loss ($M) | EPS on 651M shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29% | 75.5 | -51.5 | -$0.079 |
| 30.5% (our forecast) | 79.4 | -47.6 | -$0.073 |
| 31% | 80.7 | -46.3 | -$0.071 |
| Needed for consensus on our revenue | 84.0 | -43.0 | -$0.066 |
Consensus EPS of -$0.066 needs a gross margin of about 32.3% on our revenue, above the top of the guide, or opex at the bottom of its range. The other drag is the share count. The 641M weighted shares in the guide, which include about 41M convertible preferred shares, were set before Rocket Lab sold 29.3M new shares between August 13 and September 15. Weighted for time outstanding, they add about 10M to Q3's count.
Balance sheet and dilution
- Cash and marketable securities were $2.30B at June 30: $2,129.5M of cash and $172.7M of securities, up from $1.02B at the end of 2025.
- The Iridium raise: Rocket Lab sold 29.3M shares for $1.944B, about $66 a share, to cover the cash part of the Iridium deal. Q3 should end with cash of roughly $4B, most of it earmarked for that purchase.
- Debt is almost gone at the parent: long-term debt was $13.1M at June 30, after most of the convertible notes turned into stock. Iridium's $1.775B term loan stays in place after the deal, with a Rocket Lab guarantee.
- Shares: about 671M including the convertible preferred after the raise, against 505.6M diluted shares in Q1 2025. At $53.82 that is a market value of about $36B.
- Cash burn: operating cash flow was -$84.1M in Q2, and management expects negative free cash flow to stay at "elevated levels" in Q3 with Neutron spending.
The Iridium deal pays $54 a share, half in cash and half in Rocket Lab stock, for an enterprise value of about $8.0B, and is expected to close in mid-2027. The stock half adds more Rocket Lab shares at closing, so per-share numbers will keep moving even if the business beats.
What management said
“The launch demand is extreme. In Q2, and since the end of the quarter closed, we've signed more than $437 million in bookings for Electron, HASTE and Neutron.”
Sir Peter Beck, CEO, Q2 2026 earnings call
“Looking ahead, we expect approximately 45.5% of our current backlog to convert into revenue within the next 12 months.”
Adam Spice, CFO, Q2 2026 earnings call
“These forecasted GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are accounting for a shift in mix within our space systems business, and we expect a beneficial remixing impact on gross margins as we look beyond Q3.”
Adam Spice, CFO, Q2 2026 earnings call
“Production currently lines up with our target delivery of Neutron to the pad in Q4 2026.”
Sir Peter Beck, CEO, on Neutron, Q2 2026 earnings call
Beck added that the window for a launch before the end of the year was narrowing. On October 14 Rocket Lab said Neutron's first launch is now expected in 2027. Neutron is the reusable medium-lift rocket meant for the company's larger launch contracts, including the satellites it is building for the Space Force.
How the market is positioned
- Report days: Rocket Lab reports after the close, and the next session's move has averaged 8.0% in either direction over the last seven reports. The range runs from a 34.2% jump after Q1 2026 to no move at all after Q2.
- Price: $53.82 at the October 26 close. The stock rose 15.9% on the day the Iridium deal was announced and has fallen 47% since June 30. The 52-week range is $39.48 to $150.23.
- Short interest: 45.3M shares at the October 15 settlement, about 6.8% of the share count, up from 33.4M on May 15. Days to cover was 2.0.
- Insiders: no open-market purchases in 2026. CEO Peter Beck sold 3.29M shares for $287.7M between March 2 and July 8, and CFO Adam Spice sold 1.78M shares for $135.8M through October 1, all under pre-arranged 10b5-1 plans.
The report may not be what moves the stock. A clean quarter matters less than what management says about Neutron's 2027 date, the Iridium timeline and Q4 margins.
Our assumptions
| Driver | Q2 2026 actual | Q3 2026 base | Downside | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electron point-in-time launches | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Revenue per launch ($M) | 9.1 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 9.3 |
| Over-time HASTE and other launch revenue ($M) | 6.9 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 |
| Space Systems, full quarter of acquisitions ($M) | n/a | +6.0 | +4.0 | +7.0 |
| Space Systems, satellite programs ($M) | n/a | +9.0 | +1.0 | +15.0 |
| Space Systems, components ($M) | n/a | -4.0 | -9.0 | 0.0 |
| GAAP gross margin | 36.1% | 30.5% | 29.0% | 31.5% |
| GAAP operating expenses ($M) | 142.1 | 146.0 | 146.0 | 146.0 |
| Weighted shares (M) | 629.7 | 651.2 | 651.2 | 651.2 |
| Launch Services ($M) | 44.6 | 59.8 | 53.2 | 64.8 |
| Space Systems ($M) | 189.5 | 200.5 | 185.5 | 211.5 |
| Revenue ($M) | 234.1 | 260.3 | 238.7 | 276.3 |
| EPS | -$0.08 | -$0.073 | -$0.089 | -$0.061 |
The downside case is a quarter where satellite programs stall between milestones and components fall back further, which would put revenue below the guide. The upside case adds faster satellite builds and higher-priced launches. The analyst range of $252.0M to $265.6M sits inside our band.
Risks to our call
- Launch pricing. Five of the six Q3 missions were for constellation customers that buy launches in bulk. If they paid closer to $7.5M a launch, launch revenue would be about $52M.
- Over-time accounting. Satellite revenue follows the cost incurred, so a supplier delay on one large program moves revenue into Q4. The 10-Q says some deliveries under its contract to build 17 spacecraft buses for MDA will be late, and that MDA may be entitled to claim liquidated damages.
- Margins below the guide. Mynaric's integration and the satellite mix could push GAAP gross margin under 29%, which would add about a cent to the loss per share.
- Neutron costs. Neutron spending runs through R&D until the vehicle flies, and the 2027 date keeps those costs in the P&L longer. Write-downs of flight hardware, like Q2's on Flight 2, can land in cost of revenue.
- Iridium expenses. Deal costs before closing are expensed, and they can be lumpy from quarter to quarter.
What to watch on the call
- Q4 revenue and gross margin guidance, and whether the "beneficial remixing" management promised after Q3 shows up in the guide.
- Backlog against $2.36B, and how much of the post-quarter signings made it in.
- The Neutron schedule in more detail: a target quarter for the first launch in 2027 and what the delay costs.
- Launch count for 2026 against last year's, and the first HASTE missions for the Space Force's $266M missile-defense contract.
- Mynaric's revenue and losses, now that it has a full quarter in the numbers.
- Iridium: regulatory approvals and anything new on the mid-2027 closing.
Sources
- Q2 2026 results and Q3 guidance: 8-K filed August 10, 2026 (accession 0001819994-26-000061)
- Q2 2026 quarterly report, segment revenue, revenue per launch and backlog: 10-Q filed August 10, 2026 (accession 0001819994-26-000062)
- Q1 2026 quarterly report: 10-Q filed May 7, 2026 (accession 0001819994-26-000028)
- Iridium acquisition: 8-K filed June 29, 2026 (accession 0001753926-26-001085)
- ATM completion and Iridium financing: 8-K filed September 15, 2026 (accession 0001753926-26-001769)
- Neutron schedule update: 8-K filed October 14, 2026 (accession 0001819994-26-000067)
- Q2 2026 earnings call transcript, August 10, 2026
- Electron launch dates and customers: Rocket Lab mission releases, July to October 2026
- Share prices, analyst consensus, short interest and insider trades: Equibles
- Forecast and assumptions: Equibles Research model, October 27, 2026
This article is our analysis of public filings and our own financial model. It is not investment advice, and forecasts can be wrong. Equibles staff may hold positions in the securities discussed.