Plug Power (PLUG $1.37 -3.87%) reports Q3 2026 results on Monday, November 9, after the market closes, with the call at 4:30 p.m. ET. The stock goes in at $1.365, down 31% this year and down 50% from $2.71 at the end of June, the quarter in which its gross margin reached break-even.
Plug has already told investors much of the answer. On October 15 it said Q3 revenue grew more than 10% from Q3 2025, which sets a floor of $194.8 million, that net cash usage fell to about $28 million, and that unrestricted cash ended the quarter at about $134 million with no stock sold. The consensus of $193.3 million still sits just below that floor. Our forecast is a small revenue beat. The harder question is gross margin, where the Q2 number was flattered by a provision release that will not repeat at the same size.
The data behind this piece
Explore the primary data Equibles carries for PLUG:
Why Q3 will beat consensus
The consensus of $193.3 million has a range of $180.1 million to $201.1 million, and more than half of that range is below what Plug has already said it did. The October 15 business update stated that the company "expects meaningful revenue growth in Q3 2026 of greater than 10% versus Q3 2025". Q3 2025 revenue was $177.1 million, so the floor is $194.8 million.
CFO Paul Middleton set the shape in August: "We expect some growth in Q3-26 sequentially and over the Q3 of prior year, but the majority of the volume in this second half forecast we expect unfolding in the fourth quarter of 26." Our build follows that guidance line by line.
Equipment: $97.0 million. Sales of equipment and infrastructure were $81.9 million in Q2 and $96.8 million in Q3 2025. Plug deployed 1,666 GenDrive units in Q2, more than double a year earlier, and two of its largest material-handling customers plan to refresh more than 20,000 units over three years, about 2,000 of them in 2026. Electrolyzer revenue adds from the 100 MW Galp project in Portugal and the 25 MW Iberdrola project in Spain, both in commissioning, and the 50 MW Orica order in Australia.
Services: $31.0 million. Service revenue grew 82% from a year earlier to $29.8 million in Q2. We let it rise modestly with the installed base.
Power purchase agreements: $27.5 million. Fuel: $41.0 million. PPA revenue has grown 1% to 2% a quarter, and fuel revenue grew 15% from a year earlier in Q2, to $39.5 million.
Our forecast for Q3 and Q4 2026
| $M unless stated | Q3 2025 actual | Q2 2026 actual | Q3 2026 our forecast | Q3 consensus | Q4 2026 our forecast | Q4 consensus | FY 2026 our forecast | FY consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equipment and infrastructure | 96.8 | 81.9 | 97.0 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Services | 19.7 | 29.8 | 31.0 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Power purchase agreements | 24.6 | 26.9 | 27.5 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Fuel | 35.9 | 39.5 | 41.0 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Revenue | 177.1 | 178.3 | 196.7 | 193.3 | 281.4 | 285.0 | 820.0 | 821.2 |
| Gross profit | -120.2 | -1.7 | -9.0 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Gross margin | -67.9% | -0.9% | -4.6% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Adjusted EPS | n/a | -$0.07 | -$0.06 | -$0.062 | n/a | -$0.032 | n/a | -$0.27 |
Consensus is the mean of 13 analysts for quarterly revenue, 18 for full-year revenue and six for quarterly EPS, captured on October 27; the EPS consensus does not state its basis. Revenue lines exclude "other" revenue of under $0.5 million a quarter.
Q4. Plug raised its full-year growth guide to 15% to 16% in August, which means $816.4 million to $823.5 million. After $341.8 million in the first half and our $196.7 million for Q3, the midpoint needs $281.4 million in Q4, 25% more than Q4 2025's $225.2 million and 43% more than Q3. Middleton said the second half will be "40% higher than the first half, and this will mostly come from equipment volume". The October update repeated that the company is on track.
Gross margin: what Q2's near break-even included
CEO Jose Luis Crespo opened the Q2 call with gross margin "approximately break even", at -0.9%, against -30.7% a year earlier. The improvement is real, but the 10-Q shows that Q2's cost of revenue included a $15.7 million benefit from releasing loss-contract provisions on service agreements, up from $7.8 million in Q1 and $4.3 million in Q3 2025. Excluding those releases, gross margin was -9.7% in Q2 and -18.0% in Q1.
Q4 2025 is shown as reported only, because the annual report does not split the provision change by quarter.
For Q3 we assume a $5.0 million release, close to Q3 2025's $4.3 million. With equipment margin at 3.6% on higher volume, services at 27%, PPAs at -27% and fuel at -45%, gross profit comes to -$9.0 million, or -4.6%. Every line improves on the year and the underlying margin improves on Q2, but the headline number slips. The October update said only that the company "expects continued year-over-year progress in Q3 2026", which fits.
The Q4 target: positive EBITDA
Management has tied the year to one milestone. Crespo said in August that positive EBITDA "in the fourth quarter" is "squarely within reach", and Middleton said it "will come mainly from increased gross margin". GAAP operating expenses were $62 million in Q2, but that included $39.7 million of recoveries of previously impaired assets, mainly a $37 million gain from settling a customer dispute; Middleton pointed to a run rate of "roughly $75 million a quarter". Against $281 million of Q4 revenue, $75 million of operating costs needs a gross margin of about 27% before any depreciation is added back; Plug has not said how much depreciation it will add. The November 9 call is the last chance to restate or reset that target before the quarter it applies to is half over.
Balance sheet and cash
The Q3 figure is Plug's preliminary estimate from October 15.
- Cash. About $134 million unrestricted at September 30. Restricted cash was $510 million at June 30, and Plug said about $155 million of it is scheduled to be released over the following 12 months.
- Burn. Net cash usage fell from about $145 million in Q1 to $61 million in Q2 and about $28 million in Q3. Part of the improvement came from asset sales: $47 million of an expected $80 million from the sale of its Graham, Texas grid assets and the New York Great Gateway project had arrived by August.
- Debt. Plug's 6.75% convertible senior notes were carried at a fair value of $578.0 million at June 30, up from $431.0 million at the end of 2025 as the stock rose. They are marked to market every quarter, as are the $7.75 warrants.
- Equity capacity. $944.1 million remains under the at-the-market program and $1.0 billion under a standby equity purchase agreement with Yorkville, which runs to February 2027. Plug sold no shares under either in the first half or, by its October update, in Q3.
The mark-to-market works in reverse this quarter. Q2's GAAP loss of $0.14 a share included about $104 million of non-cash charges because the stock rose. The stock fell 28% in Q3, from $2.71 to $1.94, so the same liabilities should produce a non-cash gain, and GAAP EPS could come in well above the adjusted figure. The adjusted loss, -$0.07 in Q2, is the comparable number; we forecast -$0.06, in line with consensus.
What management said
“Our business has historically been second half weighted with the fourth quarter benefiting from year-end deployment cycles and everything we are seeing tells us that pattern is expected to hold again this year with even more strength behind it.”
Jose Luis Crespo, chief executive, Plug Power, Q2 2026 earnings call, 10 August 2026
“Our progress across sales, margin and cash burn demonstrates that the actions we are taking are delivering results.”
Jose Luis Crespo, chief executive, Plug Power, business update, 15 October 2026
On service margin, Crespo described the 27% as structural, driven by more reliable units and past price increases:
“So all of that together has contributed to this 27% margin that you see right now, and it's actually a structural. It's something that we believe is sustainable.”
Jose Luis Crespo, chief executive, Plug Power, Q2 2026 earnings call, 10 August 2026
Positioning
Short interest. 292.0 million shares were sold short at the October 15 settlement, about 21% of the 1.40 billion shares outstanding, with 5.7 days to cover at average volume of 50.9 million shares. The short position has held between 284.6 million and 292.0 million since mid-August.
Insiders. The last open-market purchase by an insider was on December 15, 2025. In 2026, insiders sold about $0.76 million of stock, most of it one officer's 200,000 shares at $2.14 on September 18. Directors' quarterly stock awards on April 1, July 1 and October 1 are compensation, not purchases.
The October reaction. The stock closed at $1.485 on the day of the business update and $1.38 the next day, so investors did not treat the revenue floor and the lower burn as good news. That leaves the margin line and the Q4 target as the numbers most likely to move the stock on November 9.
Our assumptions
| Assumption | Value | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Equipment revenue, Q3 | $97.0M | Q2 $81.9M; Q3 2025 $96.8M; GenDrive refresh and electrolyzer commissioning |
| Services revenue, Q3 | $31.0M | Q2 $29.8M, up 82% on the year |
| PPA revenue, Q3 | $27.5M | Q2 $26.9M; 1% to 2% a quarter |
| Fuel revenue, Q3 | $41.0M | Q2 $39.5M, up 15% on the year |
| Loss-contract provision release, Q3 | $5.0M | Q2 $15.7M, Q1 $7.8M, Q3 2025 $4.3M |
| Equipment gross margin | 3.6% | Positive in Q2 at 1.9%; volume leverage |
| Fuel gross margin | -45% | -48% in Q2, -91% a year earlier |
| Q4 revenue | $281.4M | The midpoint of the 15% to 16% full-year growth guide |
Risks
- Electrolyzer timing. Large projects slip from quarter to quarter; a delay moves Q4 revenue, not Q3, but the guide depends on it.
- Provision releases. If Q3 releases are as large as Q2's, reported gross margin will look better than our forecast without the underlying business being better.
- Mark-to-market noise. GAAP EPS will swing with the fair value of the convertible notes and warrants; read the adjusted figure.
- Dilution. Nearly $2 billion of combined ATM and standby equity capacity remains; any use would add to 1.40 billion shares.
What to watch on the call
- Q3 gross margin, and the size of any loss-contract provision release.
- Whether the 15% to 16% growth guide and the Q4 positive-EBITDA target are repeated, changed or dropped.
- Electrolyzer revenue recognised from Galp, Iberdrola and Orica, and any new final investment decisions.
- GenDrive deployments and the timing of the 20,000-unit refresh.
- Restricted cash released in Q3, and progress on the $275 million asset-monetization program.
- Plans for the November 19 Plug Symposium.
Sources
- Plug Power Q2 2026 10-Q, accession 0001104659-26-093454: document.
- Plug Power Q2 2026 earnings release, 8-K filed 10 August 2026, accession 0001104659-26-093339: document.
- Plug Power Q2 2026 earnings call transcript, 10 August 2026: transcript.
- Plug Power business update with preliminary Q3 2026 figures, 8-K filed 15 October 2026, accession 0001104659-26-115964: document.
- Plug Power Q3 2025 10-Q and 2025 10-K for the comparison periods.
- Analyst consensus captured on Plug Power's estimates page on 27 October 2026; short interest from FINRA.
This article is our analysis of public filings and our own financial model. It is not investment advice, and forecasts can be wrong. Equibles staff may hold positions in the securities discussed.