Nebius Group (NBIS $154.69 +15.44%) reported Q3 2026 results on November 12, before the market opened: revenue of $980.8 million, up 571% from a year earlier and 8.4% above the $904.8 million consensus of 17 analysts. Our preview, published October 19, called a beat at $934.5 million. The call held, and our number was $46.3 million off against the consensus's $76.0 million.
The beat did not come the way we modelled it. About $325 million of the quarter was non-recurring revenue from Nebius's new asset-light model, in which partners fund the capacity and Nebius supplies its architecture and cloud platform. Without it, revenue was about $656 million, 29.8% below our forecast and 27.5% below the consensus. Nebius also cut its 2026 outlook to the low end of its $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion range, which overturns the second half of our call: we had full-year revenue near the top.
The data behind this piece
Explore the primary data Equibles carries for NBIS:
Our forecast against the results
| $M unless stated | Our forecast | Consensus | Actual | Our error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI cloud revenue | 927.0 | n/a | 973.8 | -46.8 |
| of which one-time asset-light revenue | 0 | n/a | about 325 | n/a |
| Other segments, net of eliminations | 7.5 | n/a | 7.0 | +0.5 |
| Group revenue | 934.5 | 904.8 | 980.8 | -46.3 |
| Group revenue without the one-time item | 934.5 | 904.8 | about 655.8 | +278.7 |
| Adjusted EBITDA | 373.8 | n/a | 465.8 | not scored |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | 40% | n/a | 47.5% | not scored |
| Capital expenditure | 6,500 | n/a | 7,300.4 | -800.4 |
| ARR at September 30 ($B) | 4.1 | n/a | 6.4 | not scored |
Consensus is the 17-analyst mean captured on October 18 and used in the preview. Nebius gives the one-time revenue only as "approximately $325 million", so the figures without it are approximate. We do not score EBITDA, margin or ARR: the release does not say what margin the one-time revenue carried or which month it fell in, and Nebius itself says partnership revenue "can add choppiness to ARR".
What the model got right
The direction of the quarter. The preview argued that Q3 would beat because the June run-rate alone covered most of the consensus. The reported number did beat, by $76.0 million, and ours was the closer estimate. That is as far as the credit goes: the beat came from an item we did not model.
Pricing. We expected contracted prices, not list prices, to matter most. Nebius says prices on Q3 deals rose by more than 20% per GPU-hour against Q2, and annual contract value per megawatt passed $25 million, up from more than $20 million on the Q2 contracts. Short-term clusters are priced at more than twice the reserved rate.
2027. The preview's last section said most of what Nebius signed in 2026 bills from 2027. The first outlook for 2027 puts revenue at $12 billion to $13 billion, about four times 2026, and remaining performance obligations reached $38.7 billion on September 30, up 3% from $37.5 billion in June.
What the model got wrong
The recurring run-rate. We modelled AI cloud revenue growing 9% to 12% a month through Q3, from about $250 million in June to $342 million in September. Without the one-time item, AI cloud revenue was about $649 million for the quarter, roughly $216 million a month on average, so the recurring business grew about 12.6% from Q2 instead of the 60% our forecast implied. Capacity was the constraint, not demand: delivery dates at several colocation sites moved into the first half of 2027, including the remaining New Jersey tranches for Microsoft.
The full year. We had 2026 revenue at $3,343.3 million, near the top of the range, and year-end ARR at $7.2 billion, inside the $7 billion to $9 billion target. Nebius now expects revenue at the low end of $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion, and ARR above $7 billion for February instead of December, "a shift of about two months". The preview did say that a weak ARR print "would reflect when capacity went live, not weaker demand", and that is the reason Nebius gives, but our number was still about $343 million, or 11%, too high if 2026 lands at $3.0 billion.
Capital spending. Q3 capex was $7.3 billion against our $6.5 billion, and Nebius now expects about $27 billion for 2026, above its own $20 billion to $25 billion range and our $22.5 billion, as it pays ahead for 2027 capacity at its owned sites.
The one-time revenue
Nebius describes the $325 million as "an initial phase of a roll-out" of its asset-light model, in which partners deploy Nebius architecture and the Nebius AI Cloud platform on capacity they fund. It earns revenue when it enables a partner's capacity and again as that capacity comes online, and it expects these activities "to become a more regular part of our business". The letter does not say how much of this revenue is profit, so the 47.5% group margin and the 53.2% AI cloud margin cannot be compared with earlier quarters.
The same caveat applies to ARR. September's $6.4 billion is twelve times September's AI cloud revenue, and if part of the one-time revenue landed in September, it flatters the figure. Nebius is dropping ARR as a target from 2027 in favor of revenue, pre-tax earnings and capacity.
What changes for Q4
The new guidance leaves little room. Nebius booked $1,962.1 million in the first nine months, so $3.0 billion for the year implies about $1,038 million in Q4. That is 27.3% below our preview's $1,427.5 million and 28.7% below the October consensus of $1,456.5 million. It is also only 5.8% above Q3's reported revenue, though about 58% above Q3 without the one-time item.
A "low end" can still land a little above $3.0 billion, and more asset-light revenue in Q4 would lift it. But the capacity that moved into 2027 was the source of the December step our preview counted on, so Q4 now depends on how fast the owned sites and the remaining colocation phases bill.
2027 and the funding
| 2026 | 2027 outlook | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | low end of $3.0B to $3.4B | $12B to $13B |
| Capital expenditure | about $27B | $40B to $45B |
| Committed customer prepayments | about $10B | $17B to $20B |
| Profit target | adjusted EBITDA margin about 40% | pre-tax breakeven in Q4 2027 |
Nebius expects prepayments and asset-backed financing on contracts with investment-grade customers to cover 75% to 85% of 2027 capex. Prepayments on deals signed in Q3 covered more than 100% of the related capital spending, up from 50% to 60% on Q2 deals, and more than 90% of the contract value signed in Q3 carried one. Customers have committed more than $12 billion of contract value since the start of Q3.
The balance sheet held $7.4 billion of cash at the end of September. This year's funding included $5.75 billion of convertible notes in August, about $1.0 billion of net proceeds from the at-the-market share program in Q3, a $775 million asset-backed facility in July and a $3.5 billion secured facility with Citi in October. Shares outstanding were 292,902,405 on September 30.
What management said
The chief executive's letter put the guidance change down to timing:
“With a portion of this year’s revenue moving into the first part of next year, we now expect 2026 revenue at the low end of our $3.0-3.4 billion range, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of ca. 40%.” Arkady Volozh, founder and CEO, Q3 2026 letter to shareholders
On the delays, the letter names the third parties:
“Where we rely on third parties, there have been delays. This includes in New Jersey, where we are transitioning the power source to Bloom Energy’s sustainable fuel cells.” Arkady Volozh, founder and CEO, Q3 2026 letter to shareholders
And on the deals themselves:
“Prepayments on Q3 agreements covered more than 100% of the associated capex, including data center construction and networking, up from 50-60% in Q2.” Arkady Volozh, founder and CEO, Q3 2026 letter to shareholders
Sources
- Nebius Group Q3 2026 results release and letter to shareholders, November 12, 2026, published on the company's investor relations site; see NBIS documents.
- Our Q3 preview: Nebius Group (NBIS) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview and Forecast.
- Consensus: NBIS analyst estimates, the October 18, 2026 snapshot.
- Q3 2026 earnings call of November 12, 2026: NBIS earnings calls.
- Quarterly history: NBIS financials.
This article is our analysis of public filings and our own financial model. It is not investment advice, and forecasts can be wrong. Equibles staff may hold positions in the securities discussed.