TSM · Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd

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$415.58 -5.63 (-1.34%) At close · Jul 23

Market Cap

$2.16T

5.19B

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FQ3-26 quarter ends

~Sep 30, 2026 Est

Equibles Research

our published analysis of this company

Research Thesis July 24, 2026

Micron's FQ4-26 guide of $50.0B and 86% gross margin: a single quarter larger than every full year through FY2024, with SK hynix's P&T7 build as the contestable mirror

Micron's FQ4-26 guided band exceeds every full fiscal year through FY2024 on a revenue base that has reset free cash flow to $18.3B in Q3 2026 and operating cash flow to $25.39B; the bull case rests on DRAM/NAND pricing, HBM4E absorption, and SCA lock-in holding ahead of SK hynix's Cheongju P&T7 advanced-packaging acceleration funded by a US$26.5B ADR allotment.

Equibles Rating

blended score · not investment advice

Overall

Neutral

SellHoldBuy

Technical Neutral Momentum Strong Sentiment Neutral Fundamentals Limited Quant / Vol High

Market backdrop VIX 18.7 · elevated Equity put/call 0.61

Technical

price trend

Neutral

50 / 200-day cross No cross

Price vs 200-day avg +17%

above

Price vs 50-day avg −2%

below

RSI (14) 46

neutral

MACD trend Negative

52-week position 75%

mid-range

Volume (OBV) Confirms

volume backs price

Momentum

relative strength

Strong

1-month return −6%

trailing

6-month return +23%

trailing

YTD return +37%

this year

Relative strength +16%

vs S&P · 6-mo

Sentiment

smart money

Neutral

Trend (MA cross) No cross

50d $426 › 200d $354 — 50d above 200d

Institutional flow Accumulating

982 of 3,270 funds reported for Jun 30 · net +2.9M sh shares · +132 new

Insider flow Distributing

Net -$12.5M over 90 days · 6% sells

Short interest Rising

0.53% of float · ▲ +12.8% MoM · 1.8 days cover

Volume signal Normal

Volume near normal

Institution breadth Multi-yr high

3,270 holders — near 3-yr high, broad support

Squeeze score 45

elevated · 0–100

Fundamentals

Limited

Not enough data for a confident read.

Quant / Vol

risk profile

High

Volatility 40%

annualized · 1-yr

Max drawdown −18%

past year

ATR 4.3%

of price · 14-day

Blended from price, momentum, positioning, fundamentals & volatility · daily-close · not investment advice. Market backdrop is context, not part of the score.

Guidance & track record

what management promised — and delivered

Latest guidance · from the Earnings Call filed Mar 31, 2026

second quarter 2026

Revenue Initiated $39B – $40.2B

Gross margin Initiated 65.5% – 67.5%

Operating margin Initiated 56.5% – 58.5%

Tax rate Initiated 20%

full year 2026

Tax rate Initiated 17% – 18%

Gross margin dilution from 2-nanometer technology ramp-up Initiated 2% – 3%

Capital expenditures Initiated $52B – $56B

next several years (early stages)

Gross margin dilution from the ramp-up of overseas fabs 2% – 3%

next several years (latter stages)

Gross margin dilution from the ramp-up of overseas fabs 3% – 4%

Guidance from company 8-Ks · delivered figures from as-reported statements · no analyst estimates involved.

Technicals

trend & momentum for long-term holders Neutral

1 · 5 · 1

50 / 200-day cross

No cross Neutral

Price vs 200-day avg

+17% Bullish

Price vs 50-day avg

−2% Neutral

RSI (14)

46 Neutral

MACD trend

Negative Bearish

52-week position

75% Neutral

Volume (OBV)

Confirms Neutral

Market signals — smart money & positioning

Mixed

Trend (MA cross) No cross

50d $426 › 200d $354 — 50d above 200d

Institutional flow Accumulating

982 of 3,270 funds reported for Jun 30 · net +2.9M sh shares · +132 new

Insider flow Distributing

Net -$12.5M over 90 days · 6% sells

Short interest Rising

0.53% of float · ▲ +12.8% MoM · 1.8 days cover

Volume signal Normal

Volume near normal

Institution breadth Multi-yr high

3,270 holders — near 3-yr high, broad support

Price context

position in its 52-week range

52-wk low $222 Now $416 · 75% 52-wk high $479

vs 200-day avg +17% vs 50-day avg -2%

Illustrative technical + ownership context — a signal mix, not investment advice.

Versus peers

Semiconductors — same industry group

Open screener →

Company	Mkt cap	YTD	Rev growth Y/Y	P/E	Short % shares
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd this stock	$2.16T	+37.1%	—	—	0.5%
NVDA Nvidia Corp	$5.13T	+13.8%	+125.9%	32.5	1.3%
AVGO Broadcom Inc.	$1.89T	+15.1%	+7.9%	66.0	1.5%
SKHY SK hynix Inc.	$1.20T	—	—	—	—
MU Micron Technology Inc	$1.08T	+236.3%	+49.5%	21.7	2.8%

Peers by industry group · P/E from as-reported trailing EPS · short % is of shares outstanding

At a glance

key data from every section

Ownership

Institutional Holders Accumulating

Holders

3,380

% held: 17.3%
Reported: 982 of 3,270
Top holder: FMR LLC

Held Float

View

Held by Funds

Fund positions

1,008

View

Short & Settlement

Short Interest Rising

Shares short

27.7M

Days to cover: 1.8d
Change: +3.1M sh

View

Short Volume

Short vol %

53%

As of: Jul 23, 2026

Short Total

View

Fails to Deliver

FTD shares

Value: $3.0K
As of: Jun 29, 2026

View

Off-Exchange

Off-exchange %

52.4%

Week of: May 4, 2026

Off-exch Lit

View

Smart Money

Insider Trades Cluster buy

Net (90d)

-$12.5M

Buyers / Sellers: 31 / 2

Buyers Sellers

View

Congressional Trades Buy

Member

Richard W. Allen

Amount: $1.0K–$15.0K
Traded: May 8, 2026

View

Filings

SEC Filings

Latest

6-K

Filed: Jul 16, 2026
This year: 34

View

Earnings & Events

Earnings Calls

Last call

Mar 31, 2026

View

Performance

	5D	20D	120D	MTD	YTD
TSM	+1.4%	-5.7%	+22.7%	-13.0%	+37.1%
SPY	-1.7%	+0.7%	+6.4%	-1.2%	+8.3%
vs SPY	+3.1%	-6.4%	+16.4%	-11.8%	+28.9%

Capital returns

Latest dividend

$0.955 / share · ex Jun 11, 2026

Cut 0.1%

Paid (TTM)

$3.568 / share · 4 payouts

Dividend yield (TTM, derived)

0.86%

Dividends per share over the trailing 365 days by ex-date · buyback figures as last reported in SEC filings ("spent" derived as authorized − remaining; when several programs run concurrently, authorized is their combined total per the newest filing) · components shown separately — trailing-year buyback spend isn't tracked, so no combined shareholder yield is derived.

Key facts CIK 1046179 CUSIP 874039100 13F (30d) 1000 filings 972 filers Visit website Investor relations

TSM · Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd

Price & Indicators

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Equibles Research

Equibles Rating

Guidance & track record

Technicals

Versus peers

At a glance

Performance

Capital returns