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Earnings call · FY2026 Q2
Executive readout · one minute
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Confident
Net tone +88 · low hedging
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From the 8-K filed Aug 6, 2026.
| Metric | Period | Guided | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Same-Store NOI growth (total portfolio)
year ending December 31, 2026
|
11% – 13% | — | |
|
NFFO per diluted share
year ending December 31, 2026
|
$2.15 – $2.19 | Non-GAAP |
How the reported period landed and where the business moved.
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of the competitive advantages that our management team is deploying to drive calculated growth as we work hard to scale a powerful and a differentiated platform to generate even greater value for shareholders. Q2 was another exceptionally strong quarter. While some investors are simply being carried by the sector's tailwinds, our achievements across core metrics illustrate our position of strength in the marketplace. For example, double-digit same store NOI growth for the 10th consecutive quarter, industry-leading NFFO per share growth with a material increase in full-year guidance, while continuing to delever, which of course is highlighted by net debt to EBITDA of only two and a half times, exceptionally strong acquisition execution with over $1.4 billion in closed deals year-to-date, with an additional more than $800 million locked up and in the pipeline, all expected to close prior to year-end. By the way, none of which is reflected in our revised earnings guidance. And of course, efficient capital formation and accretive deployment into some of the highest quality senior housing product located in some of the most desirable infill markets in the country at scale, with compelling risk-adjusted returns at a very attractive spread to our cost of capital. And rather than isolated data points, by the way, these results represent the output of a strategy that we forged together over the course of many years, and a team that continues to execute at the highest level and with excellence. And although we're very proud, by the way, of what we've accomplished to date, we remain strictly focused on ensuring that the best version of this company is still ahead of us. A word on pace, because our volume is up meaningfully this year, and we'd rather address that directly than have it inferred. Our underwriting discipline has not changed. What has changed is the depth and the quality of the opportunity set in front of us. As our standing with operators has continued to strengthen materially, and as our balance sheet has become an even stronger foundation for seizing opportunities, more of the right opportunities are simply reaching us first, and that's enabled us to be more selective, not less. Given the recent leadership announcement, I want to be clear about how I will personally continue to lead this exceptional organization. The mission, the strategy, and the discipline that's driven our results does not change and they don't change for a simple reason because danny and i in conjunction with the management team that you all know so well built our strategy and our operating ethos together over the past decade now with that said we will never rest on even recent accomplishments because the only scoreboard we focus on is forward looking and calibrated to the results that we're posting for our core constituents from our valued investors to residents in our communities all across the country. My focus, among other things, is in two core areas. Number one, rapidly scaling this platform to deliver the outsized growth that we're being valued to deliver and to do so in a disciplined and a responsible manner, while simultaneously positioning this platform to seize the generational investment opportunity before us in the senior housing sector today. So number one is rapid scaling to drive outsized growth. Number two, strengthening an extremely talented leadership team that Danny and I and our broader board has long since viewed as the future of the company for the next decade and beyond. That means deepening our operating capabilities and adding some of the best talent in the country and important roles across the org chart while continuing to drive robust internal and intelligent external growth at significant scale. As we previously announced, Gabe Wilhite has been elevated to president while also retaining his COO role, and he and I are working together to deepen the leadership at every level of the organization, while Stefan and Brian continue to drive our investments and finance capabilities with the same discipline that you've come to rely on. I'd also like to acknowledge one of AHR's valued independent directors, Scott Estes, who, as many of you know, served for 12 years as Welltower's CFO. He was appointed lead independent director last month because AHR is committed to best practices in corporate governance and Scott's combination of judgment and experience has continued to prove invaluable throughout his service on our board. All of the efforts that we're discussing today are quite frankly in service of a simple and enduring vision to position AHR as the most sought-after capital partner for the best senior housing operators in America while simultaneously delivering the highest quality care, and superior health outcomes for our nation's valued elders. The demographic tailwind behind long-term care, as you all know, is powerful and still in early stages, and supply remains profoundly constrained. But that tailwind essentially is available to every investor in the sector. What sets us apart is what we've built underneath it. Many of our key people are former operators, and that's by design. Then there's trilogy. These advantages give us a finger on the pulse of this business each and every day and real-time insight into what's actually working across thousands of units. It also means we sit across the table from our partners as people who lived in the operating world, not just in the capital markets. Operators know the difference and they choose accordingly. Add development capabilities and bed licenses in a sector where both are valuable and rare. You have advantages that continue to compound. Cost of capital determines, as we all know, what you can offer to pay, but it doesn't determine what you get shown or what you get done. Anyone can be the highest bidder. AHR is strengthening our position as the industry's partner of choice, and we intend to keep widening that gap. With that, I'll turn it over to the team.
Gabe? Thanks, Jeff. Before I get into the quarter, let me thank Jeff and the board for the confidence they've shown in me. I've been in this company and its predecessors for more than a decade. In serving as the president, and COO of this remarkable company, it's a genuine privilege that compels a sense of enormous stewardship and responsibility. And beyond that, what excites me now the most is how HR is positioned to capitalize on one of the most significant generational investment opportunities that we've seen really in any real estate asset class. The differentiated platform we've built and the way that we're rapidly scaling it positions us to maximize the opportunity before us in senior housing in america with that the second quarter put numbers behind the growth and the opportunity we're describing total portfolio same story and why grew 13.2 percent year over year and 12.7 percent for the first six months just as important it grew 4.9 percent sequentially off a first quarter that was already a high watermark our operating portfolio led again and it led the way we wanted to occupancy held bucking the usual first half seasonality and rate was managed with discipline, all while expense growth was effectively controlled. This resulted in strong margin expansion and NOI growth. Getting into the segments, Trilogy continues to exceed our already high expectations. Same-store NOI grew 16.1% year-over-year and 5.4% sequentially, while same-store occupancy averaged 90.7%, up 180 basis points from a year ago. while occupancy stepped down about 50 basis points from the first quarter we view that as typical seasonality just as we've seen in past years with trilogy a slight pullback in skilled nursing occupancy this quarter was offset by strength in trilogy's senior housing setting this dynamic has the potential to be a powerful driver of growth through the summer selling season and through the remainder of the year even though skilled nursing occupancy came down 70 basis points sequentially senior housing occupancy held at 91.9%, flat with the first quarter and 200 basis points ahead of last year. Those residents stay with us considerably longer, so starting with a higher occupancy through the busiest selling season of the year is the result we care most about. Importantly, we more than offset the seasonal step down in occupancy by executing effectively on the expense line. Same-store operating expenses were down 0.9% sequentially, with controllable costs down 4.6 percent. And as a result, Trilogy set a new post-pandemic high watermark for same-store-and-noi margin, which reached 21.1 percent. That's a full 100 basis points of expansion sequentially. Quality mix reached 75.5 percent of resident days, a continuation of trends we expect to see from Trilogy. And the improvement in quality mix demonstrates the effectiveness of our strategy of leaning into quality, which is being recognized by the more selective payor sources. As I mentioned before, our SHOP strategy of partnering with and supporting the best operators continues to be highly successful. SHOP grew same-store-in-law 20.5% year-over-year. Occupancy continues to grow year-over-year, and we're widening the spread between RevCore and ExPore, which led to same-store-in-law margin expanding 242 basis points to 22.3% year-over-year. These strong results are evident in our sequential results as well. Same-Soranoi grew 9.9% from the first quarter as RevPor rose 1.4%, while ExPor actually came down 0.8%, propelling margin expansion. Our operating partners are truly an impressive group. Through our partnership with them, we're able to tap into strong operating leverage, which only compounds as occupancy climbs. You can expect us to continue to focus on our existing and ever-evolving best-in-class asset management practices with our best-in-class operating partners to drive results. We've demonstrated time and time again through our operating results that that's the difference maker. Underneath both segments sits the same discipline, quality of care first, collaborative accountability with every partner. We set clear performance and care expectations with each regional operator we measure them continuously and we put the platform to work where it adds value for our partners the revenue management playbook we built alongside trilogy is now in the hands of a subset of our shop operators with interest for more and our asset management team is on the ground and engaged in our communities our partners who hold the same value and the standards as hr become the inevitable recipients of greater capital allocation That is how we will continue to grow and to maximize value creation for our shareholders as we do it. One last point, because it bears directly on how we scale. Every community we acquire has to land with an operator who meets our standard on day one. And the platform has to be ready to absorb the expansion the day we close. So we're investing ahead of the growth rather than behind it. We're adding depth in asset management, clinical oversight, and underwriting. and we're extending the revenue management analytics and reporting tools we built alongside Trilogy to more of our operating partners so that a partner who joins AHR actually gains capability on day one that would otherwise take years to build alone. As always, thanks to our regional operating partners and our asset management team for another quarter of industry-leading results. With that, I'll turn it over to Stefan.
Thanks, Gabe. I'm proud to report that, as jeff mentioned earlier for the year to date we've closed on over 1.4 billion of new acquisitions and investments during the second quarter we closed approximately 126.9 million dollars of new shop investments all representing expansion with existing operators that included four communities in georgia and south carolina for approximately 86.4 million which deepens our southeast presence with an existing regional partner and one community in minnesota for approximately $40.5 million with another existing partner. We also sold three non-core properties for approximately $22.3 million, continuing our ongoing process of opportunistically pruning assets that no longer earn a place in our portfolio. This allows us to redirect capital into higher quality and more strategic assets. After the end of the quarter, the acquisition pace picked up considerably. We acquired 10 additional shop communities for approximately 1 billion, which brings our investment volume to over 1.4 billion this year. That activity also welcomed new regional operators onto the platform. One of them opened up the Northeast for us at scale, a region we had targeted for some time and one we were excited to enter with the right partner. The other meaningfully deepens our exposure in the Southeast, where we already have real momentum and can supplement our exposure with another best-in-class operator. I have said this before, but want to note again that who we choose to work with is the most important component of our investment process. Our operating partners were carefully selected and in almost every case came out of our network. The relationships were built well ahead of the opportunity. However, being familiar never substituted for diligence. Every one of them was underwritten to the same rigorous standard we apply to anyone we consider adding to the platform. And we waited patiently for the right assets and the right markets before formalizing these strategic partnerships. Also after the quarter end, we funded an $86.2 million loan on seven properties with options to acquire them. The properties are operated by a partner we have an existing relationship with, and we have a defined path to near-term ownership of these communities at an attractive return. As for our investments pipeline, it currently stands at over $800 million. That includes newly awarded deals as well as deals disclosed as awarded in our first quarter release that have not yet closed. We expect to close most, if not all, before the end of the year, but none of this volume is reflected in our guidance. Let me be candid about how we are approaching this market. We pursue growth with measured conviction, strategic and disciplined, always putting quality and accretive growth potential above all else. Operator quality and market position are always the first filter, and this is non-negotiable for AHR. From there, we underwrite care outcomes, market fundamentals, the physical plant, the service lines the asset can efficiently support, and the risk-adjusted return. We do not drive growth for growth's sake. We are actively allocating capital not because we've relaxed our approach, but because meaningful opportunities met our acquisition criteria. Scale in the right markets with the right partners' compounds, and the deep industry relationships we built over the past 20 years continue to generate compelling opportunities, many of which never reach the broader market. With that, I will turn it over to Brian.
Thanks, Fafan. We reported normalized FFO of $0.54 per diluted share for the second quarter, up 28.6% from the $0.42 in the same quarter last year. Year-to-date, NFFO is $1.05 per diluted share, 31.3% ahead of the prior year. Those results were achieved, first, by the organic growth embedded in the portfolio, and second, from accretion from the acquisitions we have closed over the past four quarters, which are now contributing a full period of earnings, both of which combined to be an approximate 31% year-over-year increase in cash NOI. Those results, together with better visibility into the second half of the year, support a further increase to our full-year 2026 guidance. We are raising full-year NFFO per diluted share guidance to a range of $2.15 to $2.19, up from our prior range of $2.03 to $2.09. At the midpoint, that represents roughly 26% NFFO per diluted share growth over 2025. We are also raising total portfolio same-store NOI growth guidance to a range of 11 to 13 percent up from 9 to 12 percent at the segment level we're moving both operating segments higher integrated senior health campuses is increased to a range of 13 to 16 percent from 11 to 15 percent and shop improves to a range of 18 to 21 from 15 to 19 percent outpatient medical was changed to flat to up one percent and triple net leased properties are unchanged at an increase of 2% to 3% year-over-year. As always, this guidance reflects only the transactions and capital markets activity completed through today. It does not include any awarded deals still in the pipeline that Stefan described. Turning to the balance sheet, net debt to EBITDA improved to two and a half times for the second quarter, which is a half a turn better than the three times we reported in the first quarter of 2026 and 1.2 turns better than Q2 of 2025. Between our May follow-on offering and our ATM program, we raised approximately $1.5 billion of equity capital in Q2 26 and subsequent to quarter end. As a result, and as of today, we have unsettled forward sale agreements totaling approximately $631 million in proceeds upon full settlement. The forward proceeds that remain Unsettled are a powerful funding source for the pipeline that Stefan described, along with cash on hand and the full availability on our $800 million revolving credit facility. Our capital markets discipline has given rise to strong offensive capability, positioning us to pursue our most attractive acquisition and development opportunities from a position of financial strength. I want to remind everyone that our cheapest source of equity comes from the significant amount of retained earnings generated each quarter, which is a product of the company's dividend policy. Beyond that, we will continue to raise capital from non-strategic asset sales and could potentially raise equity capital through our ATM, so long as it is attractively priced and would result in an accretive use of funds. Utilizing this strategy, we have been able to close $1.4 billion of acquisitions this year, while also creating future funding capacity by improving and reducing leverage metrics, all while expecting to grow NFFO per share by more than 25% from 2025 to 2026. That backdrop sets the stage for us to continue to play offense from here. And with that, I'd like to turn it back to Jeff.
Thanks, Brian. Before we open the call to questions, I'd like to share a brief sentiment before turning it over to Danny to share a few of his thoughts. Danny and I have been business partners for more than 20 years, and he's had an absolutely incredible 35-year career in healthcare real estate that's been marked by excellence at virtually every turn. His profound leadership has shaped this company in indelible ways, and his DNA is infused throughout every part of the organization, from our strategy to our culture to several of the operating relationships that define who we are today. Fortunately, he continues to serve as a valued board member and trusted advisor, so thankfully he's not going anywhere. With that said, I didn't want this quarter to pass without all of you hearing from him directly.
Danny, it's all yours. Thank you, Jeff. Good morning, everyone. I want to thank the team for giving me a few minutes on today's call. As you know, we completed our leadership transition last month, and I've since retired from my role as CEO. The business is in excellent hands, so I'm not here to talk about the quarterly results. I'm here simply to share a few personal reflections and to say thank you. As many of you know, this past February, I suffered a serious health event. For unknown reasons, my heart stopped beating following my usual morning run. Although I was recovering rapidly and had anticipated returning to the CEO seat prior to our Q1 earnings call in early May, my recovery began to plateau. This ultimately resulted in a heart transplant that was thankfully very successful. Since then, my recovery has been exceptional, and I truly have a new lease on life. Such a profound experience gives one perspective, and it gave me the reason to think hard about what I want the next chapter of my life to look like, particularly after what my family has been through this year. After a great deal of reflection and many conversations with my wife, I concluded that the right decision was to step back from day-to-day demands of the chief executive role. I'm fortunate that AHR's depth gives me the flexibility to prioritize my family at this stage of my life. This company is strong, the strategy is delivering industry-leading results, and the senior leadership team is exceptional. During my recovery, and it's no surprise to me, Jeff and our broader team haven't lost a step. In fact, they've accelerated over the past six months, which makes it easier for me to prioritize my family while dedicating professional energy to my role as an engaged director and advisor to the leadership team that I care so much about. If you'll permit me a moment of broader reflection, I've spent 35 years working in the healthcare rate space, and it's been the privilege of my professional life. I was fortunate to help build this company from the ground up, to invest in communities that care for people during some of the most important seasons of their lives, and to work alongside operating partners who share our commitment to quality care and outcomes. What I'm most proud of isn't any single performance metric. It's the people, the culture, and the purpose that define AHR. And when a company is built upon the right foundation, these attributes endure long after any one leader steps out of an operating role. To our team members across the organization, thank you. You are the reason this company is so successful. To our regional operating partners, thank you for your trust in AHR and your partnership in our shared mission. To our board and our shareholders, thank you for your confidence over the years. And Jeff, thank you. Matt and I couldn't have asked for a better business partner or a better team to carry this forward. I'm passionate about my continued involvement, and I'm extremely optimistic about the future. With that, and with tremendous anticipation for what lies ahead, I'll turn the call back to the team. Thank you all.
Thanks, Danny. Beautifully said, and we're grateful that we'll continue to benefit from your wisdom and your counsel for many years to come. Operator, we'd like to open the line for questions.
We will now begin the question and answer session. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up for two total questions. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star 1 again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. If you are muted locally please remember to unmute your device please stand by while we compile the q a roster your first question is from michael stroyek with green street your line is now open please go ahead thanks and good morning and congrats danny on a spectacular recovery that's great news um And maybe one question on expenses and Trilogy, just what drove the deceleration and controllable costs within that business?
Is that sub 2% growth rate just transitory in nature due to some elevated year of year comps, or do you view that as more sustainable in the near term?
I'll take that, Michael. It's Gabe. so at the beginning of the year and and really this started uh last year the trilogy team made it a big focus um to focus on expenses and they've done a terrific job of managing that through the first and second quarter of 2026. that team is shown time and time again that if they focus on something they can really outperform what the expectations will be so i would never count them out on outperformance on that front. There are a couple things that are seasonal in nature on the expense side that you should take into account, though, between Q2 and Q3. They're highly concentrated in the Midwest, so utility seasonality can be a component of it as you enter into the colder months and more utilization of air conditioning, climate control, that sort of thing. But I think overall, what we're seeing there is really great execution on expense management, especially, and it's not just coming from one area. It's coming from multiple different components of their business.
Makes sense. Maybe sticking with Trilogy and your shop portfolio, you talked about applying the Trilogy operating platform to shop. Can you provide any sort of quantification in terms of the NOI upside opportunity there in terms of, you know, bringing that to your in-place operators?
Really hard to parse out exactly the dollars attached to that type of value. And I'll zoom out first. So our approach to operator support is really a multimodal approach. One, you've got to have capital and help them reinvest in the properties and scale their businesses. Two, you need to support them with data and analytics, and we're working on enhancing that real-time every day here. Three, we've got the Trilogy platform, which can provide support in a multitude of ways. We've talked a lot about revenue management. We also can, on a private label basis, support operators in sales marketing, employee experience, and we're expanding that and really leaning into how Trilogy's CapEx capabilities and development capabilities can support other operators as well. We also support and host innovation forums for our operators. Right now we've got 11 different operators that participate in those calls on different areas, sales and marketing, plan operations, resident experience, risk management, key areas where sharing best practices can really move the needle. And finally, I would be remiss if I didn't mention our asset management team, which is primarily former operators, and really run as a high-end consulting business for senior housing operators in the space. So you take all of that together, and now you've got a platform where when you come on as an operator to AHR's platform, the idea is that you're going to be better off than if you were doing it without us. And to get back to your question, a long way of saying I can't tell you exactly what dollars are attached to that. I can tell you 16 noi growth at trilogy for their mix and the defensiveness of the mix in their in their business is very strong over 20 noi growth on the same store basis in shop which is the 10th straight quarter of either 20 or near 20 same store noi growth is really strong and a lot of that is because of the platform value understood thanks for the time your next question is from Ronald Camden with Morgan Stanley.
Your line is now open. Please go ahead. Great. And best wishes to Danny as well.
Really great to hear. Look, I think my first one is just sticking with the trilogy for a second. You know, clearly the performance has been pretty impressive over the past two, three, four, five years. As you guys sort of think about going forward and optimizing further, is there, where's the biggest opportunity? Is it on the revenue side? Is it on the expense side? Is it, you know, is it just getting, you know, more beds in just, how do you guys think about over the next sort of three to five, like what's the biggest opportunity for the business now? Thanks.
Yeah, Ron, I'll take that one again. It's Gabe. Thanks for the question. It's, it's a mix. It's great to think about that. I think there's still a lot of occupancy growth that can happen at Trilogy, which is going to be an important part of the story. I think they're ahead of the game in the space on revenue management. And as we get to more and more of our portfolio being functionally full, you can see the revenue management becoming a bigger and bigger piece to outperformance. So getting out in front of that and building a proprietary software system that they're using for their entire portfolio today is a key component of it. I think that is still in early stages and can continue to improve. That also flows through on the skilled nursing side to the mix of pay or sources in the skilled nursing side. As you get to higher occupancy and as you get more sophisticated about revenue management, it unlocks what I think is probably the most overlooked component of our entire portfolio, which is the ability to grow revenue on the skilled nursing side on a per bed basis. If you look at our MedAdvantage rate growth at Trilogy, it was 8.4% on a same-store basis year over year. That's probably higher than what people thought was achievable, and that's because they're optimizing the mix. They're optimizing for the plans that they partner with. they want to partner with people that are willing to pay them for the level of care that they provide because it costs more to provide that level of care so they're optimizing their partnerships and continue to push i think all of that is is critical but that's just on the same store basis trilogy's development capabilities can't be overlooked either we've got a strong development pipeline there we've got five campuses new campuses that are in construction today and And we also have the ability to expand existing campuses in kind of a modular way that de-risks the proposition and creates more runway for growth as they optimize their operations throughout their entire portfolio.
Great. And then my follow-up, if I could switch to acquisitions for a second, you know, obviously pretty impressive volumes so far. I guess one of the comments you made earlier is that you are seeing more product coming to you guys. And I'm just curious if you could provide a little bit more color. What's what's driving that? Is it is a debt fund? Is it relationships? Just can we get a sense of like what's driving more product to you all to be able to sort of close at the same underwriting as you were previously? Thanks.
Hey, this is Stefan. Yeah, I would I think I think you can easily say that this year has been a very active year. We are seeing a lot of deal flow compared to even last year, where we started to see a pretty strong uptick. And this year has just been very heavy. We've seen a lot of groups that are coming out basically attracted, I think, by some of the cap recompression that we saw at the beginning of the year, combined with operator performance that has increased value in their assets as well. So I'd say that's pretty much the big driver. I mean, you're just seeing a lot more folks who are finding the opportunity now to come out and bring opportunities to the market. Secondarily, though, I would say as we have grown our operating relationships, we are certainly able to see more off-market deals coming to us directly. You know, as we have had about half of our deals come to us on an off-market basis, and, you know, I think, as you know, we've grown our operator base a little bit over the past couple years, and that continues to just drive more off-market opportunities to us as well. So, you know, I think it's really those two things that are driving it. And fortunately, a lot of those deals that we're seeing are deals that have fit into our box. You know, we are being very disciplined in how we are underwriting those deals, just as we always have. So combined with the fact that there's a lot of deals that are out there and the fact that we just happen to find a lot of opportunities that fit us, I think that's a big part of why you're seeing our acquisition volume grow as much as it did. Thanks so much.
Your next question comes from Seth Berge with Citi. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Hey, thanks for taking my question. And I'm glad to hear that you're making a good recovery, Danny. And best wishes. I guess just maybe sticking with acquisitions. And some of your deals that close post-quarter were with new operating partners. So you could just talk a little bit about more of how you go through that process of deciding to kind of onboard a new operator partner, and is it based off of geographically where they operate, and just a little bit more about kind of how you think about that?
Well, yeah. First of all, I'd say most of our operator relationships are coming from prior relationships that we've had with these operators. So that gives us a lot of ability to see, not just from an initial due diligence standpoint, how they operate, but also having a long-term relationship with them and seeing over history, over time, how they have operated in their communities. You know, obviously, we're very selective in how we choose our operators, so combine the fact that, you know, we're looking for those operators that are going to provide the highest level of care, that can provide the highest level of hospitality to the residents and an employee experience, with the fact that, you know, there are certain markets that we are targeting geographically, that's kind of what drives us to where we are going to bring in new operator business. And obviously, you know, it's not just a matter of identifying the operator and the geography we want to be in, but it's also a matter of what opportunities are available to us in those geographies.
Are they going to be a fit for our portfolio and for the operator that we're partnering with thanks that's helpful and then um maybe just on um the development kind of guidance it looks like that picked up a little bit is that um should we should we think about that as additional kind of solo developments with trilogy or another opportunity and kind of return expectations there it it's really executing on the plan we've talked about for a long time set at Trilogy with their developments the opportunity set there is is fairly deep Trilogy's development capabilities have been evolving over a multi-decade process and they're actually doing GC work on some of the developments now so we can see a path to maybe even out performance to our standards on what the returns will look like there they're always optimizing for cost and value engineering the buildings including with this new gc project so we like that we really like the villa projects that are expansions that we focus on where the demand dictates that it's already there so you can pre-lease those properties pre-sell them and there's very little operational drag that comes along with them but i think at at this moment in time we're going to continue to do what we said which is three to five new campuses opening a year at Trilogy with expansion projects surrounding those as well. And they're largely filling and performing to the underwriting expectations that we had.
Thanks, guys. Your next question is from Austin Werschmidt with Key Bank Capital Markets. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks. Good morning, Danny. Yeah, great to hear from you and that you're doing well. Just want to wish you good health and all the best moving forward. The team has highlighted that it's been a banner year of investments. Gabe, you highlighted the generational opportunity ahead of you. I mean, has there been any further discussion or change in your view around selling more or even all of your outpatient medical portfolio to accelerate the growth into senior housing?
Yeah, Austin, Jeff Hansen here. So look, I mean, yes, the focus and the energy and the capital of the company is squarely focused on the generational opportunity in both shop and trilogy and expanding. So as you've heard Brian and others say before, we're well aware of the embedded value in the OM platform. And as I think you know, we've already sold a third of the buildings. The attributable NOI has gone from mid-30s down to where it is today, sub-13%, which is going to sub-10 quickly, and that's by design. We're always looking at alternatives and ways to drive long-term shareholder value. So we've been selling. We understand there's value there, and we're going to continue course.
I appreciate the thoughts and then just want to touch on shop a bit i mean can you talk a little bit about the demand funnel and trends you're seeing you know in the july and august given you know maybe some of the softer um early seasonal acceleration you know from the first quarter into the second quarter just curious how that looks moving forward thank you yeah one thing to point out before i answer that question directly is that we have a little bit of a different acuity mix than most of the peers.
We're more focused on the needs-based part of senior housing, which is assisted living and memory care, and about 80% of our shop beds fall within that assisted living memory care component of the business, as opposed to the independent living part of the business, which is more discretionary. As a result, you're dealing with higher acuity residents, and part of having higher acuity residents means that there's a little bit more seasonality in the occupancy because of involuntary moveouts that come through the winter season. It's just a part of the business. So we see a bit of a dip typically in Q1 that ramps into Q2, and we're seeing the selling season now in July actually looking pretty strong. And we were ahead of where we were in Q2, ahead of where we started last year at this time, and that provides more pricing power as well. So I think with those coming off of a higher occupancy number in July, having sequential growth that's strong and still feels good, opens up new doors for revenue management, and we're going to be focused on that as well.
Very, very helpful. Appreciate all the detail.
Thank you. Your next question is from Michael Carroll with RBC. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Great. Thanks. It's good hearing from you, too, Danny. Great career. Just switching it over to Jeff, I wanted to touch base with you, just given that you've been taken on as the permanent CEO. What are the key initiatives that you're kind of identified that you kind of want to implement since you kind of take over this role?
Yeah, and look, because Danny and I founded the platform together beginning 21 years ago, it's not just with the leadership announcement a couple weeks ago. I hit this seat in the first week of February, unexpectedly, of course, at Mach 7 with the team that I built with Danny over the last decade plus. And it's all about scaling for, you know, as I said in my prepared remarks, to be able to post the growth that we're being valued to post while doing so with discipline and responsibility. So there's already been a plan in place, and we're executing it in an accelerated fashion because we view really 2006 and 2007 as an inflection point in the overall arc and growth trajectory of the company. So number one is acquisition velocity. There are really four core areas. Number one, acquisition velocity while maintaining very high standards from assets to market to operator quality to underwriting rigor, right? Then very critical, and we've been working on this for the past six months, haven't made announcements yet, but we will very shortly in terms of onboarding industry-leading talent across the entire org chart. And this is all in the support of rapidly scaling shop from the investments division at three levels to the shop portfolio and asset management division at two or three levels and also technology. I'd say number three is tapping further into Trilogy to drive even more innovation across our broader portfolio of operating partners, and the fourth would be aggressive expansion of relationships and footprint with existing operators. There are other platform initiatives that we've been working on. Those are the four primary. And I would just say that the overarching theme, if you will, is measured aggression, because this is the time to do it with, again, a generational opportunity before us. And you're going to see a rapid acceleration of AHR's velocity and execution in order to capitalize on the setup that's before us.
And, Mike, it's Gabe. I want to add just a little bit to that. But AHR was uniquely situated to handle this situation because Danny and Jeff ran the company together before. Jeff was the former CEO, had served as CEO for 16 of the last 21 years, had been very involved as the chairman of the board. So when he stepped in in a time of need, he was able to hit the ground running. And Jeff has unique gifts as a leader. Danny has unique gifts as a leader. What Jeff brings is a level of intensity and a track record for growth and scaling that's really incredible and fueling an acceleration of the platform enhancements we've been talking about. So I think he was underselling exactly how fast we're moving and how hard he's charging. We're making really good progress, and we feel really good about where we're going to end up this year.
That's good to hear. And I guess, circling back to Jeff, I know since you have been the CEO, stepped down. I mean, how long do you want to be the permanent CEO? I mean, do you kind of looking at these initiatives and kind of once you get them up and running and kind of making good progress? I mean, is that at a point in time where you're wanting to step back down? Or how should we think about that? Or is this more of an indefinite type move?
Listen, I'm glad you asked that. I retired four and a half years ago for a particular set of reasons. those reasons haven't changed. But ultimately, I was part of an emergency succession plan that's been in place for the last decade that Danny and I have been working on with a very sophisticated board. And ultimately, the way you should view this CEOship isn't the typical into perpetuity CEOship. Now, we've got a sophisticated board that's not establishing arbitrary timelines, because that would be inappropriate. But you should view my CEO-ship as mission and job-driven. And the beauty is, again, there's been a decades-long succession plan that began with hiring present company, Gabe, Brian, and much of the rest of the team at the C-suite and even below the C-suite, some of whom you know, some of whom you don't know, as, again, a long-range succession plan that we're in the later stages of. So I'm here to do a job with this team attached to my hip, and we're going to do it very quickly. We're going to do it very effectively. And will it be measured in a period of months or a few quarters? No, but you shouldn't expect it to be measured in years either. And I'll tell you, look, the beauty is I don't need the money. I don't need the job, but I love this company. Danny and I built it from the ground up together. So nobody comes to this role at this particular inflection point, time and opportunity with this platform with more intensity and higher agency than someone who built it. And, you know, Matt, Dan, and I put our balance sheets up to establish our predecessor companies. So there's a high degree of agency and the way I'm going to measure my success in what we do over the next 12 to 18 months is how rapidly the next generation of leadership takes this company forward and posts growth that Danny and I never thought possible in the seats. That's how we're going to measure my success in the out years.
Great. Thanks. I appreciate it.
Your next question is from Farrell Graneth with Bank of America. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Thank you so much and good afternoon. Great to hear from you, Danny. Congrats on your successful career and good luck with your retirement. So my first question is really about trilogy.
And I know you already kind of touched on this but is it possible to quantify uh the remaining potential for the expansion of your current portfolio that's a that's a good question for expansion projects on the 150 assets a trilogy currently operates uh i can't tell you the exact number i can tell you that we are there are more opportunities than people probably understand. We have currently, I believe, about 30 properties, communities at Trilogy that have excess land that we own today or have a direct path to ownership of where we can expand the villa projects. If we do five or six villa projects a year, that's a multi-year runway for villa expansions. I think that's the way to think about it and And that's just what we control today and not the other communities where we would go out and have to source land to do it. The expansions that we're working on, though, go well beyond fill-up projects, as you know, Farrell. Where we can add wings, that typically requires less land. So there's probably significant opportunities set there from a physical barrier perspective. and we also add memory care, standalone memory care villages that are called the Legacy Village that are about 40 unit memory care communities that are next to the Trilogy main campus and those show up in our expansion project list on the development list as well. So a long way of saying I can't tell you exactly the number of communities that we have but I feel comfortable that we have at least five years plus of opportunities that we control today at the current pace.
Great to hear. And my other question is, and you did touch on this slightly, but just to dig a little bit deeper of your underlying assumptions, especially with the recast of guidance, and maybe I'll narrow in on the shop theme store NOI growth, especially the levers of rev poor and occupancy what are some of those underlying assumptions um that you kind of bake in even if it's just directionally um kind of keeping things more stable or um under or taking into consideration that potential of the seasonality with the peak leasing season the you're asking about the assumptions baked into the guide for the rest of the year for what's
occupancy. I mean, we don't separately disclose that. One or two of our peers may actually talk about that. We have multiple scenarios whereby we are growing occupancy faster and we're not pushing on rate as much. And frankly, across the portfolio, it's not entirely homogenous. It's not as though every single campus that we own is 89% occupied. We've got some that are lower occupied, some that are higher occupied. We're pushing rate more on the more highly occupied ones. Expense controls is always appropriate. That's universal. We're always trying to make sure that they're pushing on that. Generally speaking, I think, you know, the more highly occupied buildings, we're pushing on rate. I think we would expect to see rate increases in the somewhere between 4% and 6% range. Control expenses on the lower occupied buildings, again, we're not pushing rate. We may even be giving small move-in specials, but that's a really small piece of the portfolio. And there, you know, it's grow occupancy. And, you know, I think that's, again, it's not one set of circumstances. It's very specific to the building and the sub market.
Okay. Thank you. Very helpful.
Your next question is from Michael Goldsmith with UBS. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. Thanks a lot for taking my question. And Danny, great to hear from you. I'm glad to hear you're doing well and wishing you continued good health and all the best. Can you talk about the senior housing acquisitions and the returns they are delivering today relative to maybe the last prior years? We know there's a lot of capital flowing into the space and have seen some outbreak compressions, but then you've also mentioned several times that the recent acquisitions are performing ahead of underwriting, just trying to reconcile those two competing dynamics and how that results in the returns that you're seeing.
Yeah, this is Stephan. So I guess one thing I want to point out just from the very beginning is that what we're buying now is high quality, you know, institutional grade assets that are in infill markets or dense suburban areas, and newer assets as well. So I think the one thing you can take away from this is that despite the fact that we are buying even higher quality assets today than maybe we had been a year ago, our underwriting is not changing. And our yields are actually not changing much either. I mean, we're coming in at initial yields of, I'd say, mid fives to low sixes. We continue to reach stabilizations of seven or above. And, you know, I think you could easily say that there was obviously some cap rate compression that happened at the tail end last year, at the beginning of this year. But, you know, it just really hasn't, it hasn't really continued to accelerate the way it had, you know, six months ago. I think we are starting to, we have seen that that has stayed fairly consistent And part of that is, you know, again, a lot of off-market deals that we're seeing where, you know, we are getting first bite of the apple. But I also think that just on an industry basis, you know, people are continuing to stay fairly disciplined at this pricing level. Obviously, there will be times where there will be the one-off deal that gets sold at an extremely low cap rate. but a lot of times, you know, that might be strategic. But I would say, you know, we've been able to hold firm in our yields, and I think, you know, the assets we're buying are really, really good.
Yeah, Michael, this is Jeff. I'll expand a little bit. Stefan and I were actually talking about this fairly late last night here in the office, and we didn't really start to see cap rate compression and upward lift in pricing until around the third quarter last year. And we saw a pretty decent amount of cap rate compression, third, fourth quarter, definitely into the first quarter, part of the first quarter this year. But over the last several months, it's been pretty static, which is surprising, and we're grateful for that, quite frankly. And I want to underscore the commentary that Stefan mentions as it relates to quality, because the vast majority of what we're buying are in core infill markets with very strong barriers to entry. almost all of them are our first-ranked suburbs and gateway markets many of the sub markets not all but the majority of the sub markets both of what we've closed year-to-date and what we have locked up and in the pipeline expected to close by the end of the year these sub markets require land assemblage there isn't developable land available so you got to assemble land there are challenging entitlement processes. And many of these sub-markets represent five to eight-year concept to delivery if you can actually assemble the land and get through the entitlement process. And we're still taking these deals down in the mid to upper fives to low sixes with real first-year yields, stabilizing, as Stefan said, to seven and above. And more than half of what we have in the pipeline plus year-to-date closed is actually value-add and profile, and the balance is what we call stabilized. But, Stefan, you mentioned last night that the average occupancy of the value add is 82%, so in the low 80s. And even what we call stabilized are actually average occupancy in the low 90s, still representing operating leverage and pricing power. So we're really pleased with what we've closed year to date and what we've got closing.
And I think it's important to keep in mind, where are we competing? I think the first and foremost, we don't need to buy $5 to $20 billion of acquisitions this year to meaningfully move the needle on our earnings, which is super helpful. We've been blessed with a cost of capital that while it's not the greatest in the sector, it's better than a lot. So we're not necessarily competing with other folks that may require a higher going in yield. That's invariably going to wind up being more flat than what we're buying. And then when you slice that again by saying, look, we're doing 50% of the deals are off market. Now we're suddenly diminishing the amount of times that we're competing solely on price.
And one last thing on acquisitions. Importantly, it hasn't been asked yet, but the average age of the $2.2 billion that we've referenced, the $1.4 closed year-to-date, the $800 million in the pipeline, is average 2019 vintage. And even after a year has gone by, our average shop asset age has dropped from 29 years to 21, eight years. So it's significant improvement in a very rapid period of time.
Thank you very much. Good luck in the back half.
Your next question is from Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital Market. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Hi, this is Robin Haneland sitting here for Juan. I'm happy to hear that Danny is doing well. I wanted to touch on some of your estimates of where assets are trading relative to replacement costs, and if your view of replacement costs includes a developer profit or margin?
Yeah, this is Stephan. You know, I would say generally speaking, we're still able to buy below replacement costs, you know, and considering where construction pricing has gone, considering the high cost today that we're seeing in in the construction of uh you know high-end uh senior housing communities um you know it's it we're still able to buy below what what it would cost for uh someone else to build that um but i think you also need to consider the fact that like jeff mentioned it's not just the actual cost of building it's what what's the timeline it would take to build debt. What are all the approvals that you need? How do you acquire that land? So I think you put all of that together, what we're able to do by buying today at something that's below replacement cost is really beneficial for us.
And I think we're very pleased with what we're able to acquire because of it follow up curious if you have any update on the memory care center of excellence and if you've started building out in any initiatives yet yeah thank you for asking about that so if the uh our our trilogy partner is working on the memory care center for excellence it's one of the things that i think will be the hallmark of we had tenure as ceo of trilogy It's something that highlights what we believe deeply about operating in this space, that we should continue to innovate, continue to get better, invest in any way we can to help make the experience for the seniors that are in our buildings better. It's something that we hope to, in the future, not only be utilized at Trilogy, but throughout our platform, and not only just our shop operators, but hopefully to be the standard for everyone in the industry to hold themselves to it's it's still in early stages and i think will be an exact exceptional thing to be a part of i'm excited that they're working on it i appreciate that question your next question is from rich hightower with barclays your line is now open please go ahead hey uh good morning out there guys and of course all the best to danny and his family as
well. Just one for me, but going back to some of the commentary on really accelerating the growth of the platform overall, I think measured aggression and increasing velocity were some of the phrases used, but help us understand maybe how that flows through to G&A or capital needs, and is it measured in the millions, the tens of millions? Just how should we think about some of the cost of that build out as you grow that way.
Yeah, look, I think you saw, if you looked at our guidance, I think you saw that there was an uptick in our G&A slightly. The vast majority of that uptick is, frankly, it's stock compensation, and that's tied to the fact that the price of the stock has gone up. Beyond that, there are some additional spends on the G&A side. You know, we've talked about the platform. We've talked about some serious talent that we're adding to the equation. The reality is the GNA is going to grow at a much, much slower rate than our NOI is growing. I think from, you know, like 31% NOI growth from last year to this year, which is pretty great. And I can tell you our GNA is not going to grow by 31%. But, you know, the idea here is to build out the platform to carry the company into the next level of growth beyond where we are today, investing in people, investing in the platform, investing in technology to be able to continue to make real-time decisions. All those things are going to be critically important for allowing us to continue to grow the company in scale.
Great. Thanks, guys. All for me.
Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I I will now turn the call back to Jeff Hansen, Chairman and CEO for closing remarks.
Yeah, thank you everybody. Have a great afternoon and a wonderful weekend. We appreciate the continued support and confidence.
This concludes today's call. Thank you so much for attending. You may now disconnect.
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